Financial Planning

and
Chapter
4 Forecasting
LEARNING OBJECTIVES

After reading this chapter, students should be able to:

Briefly explain the following terms: mission statement, corporate scope,

corporate purpose, corporate objectives, and corporate strategies.

Briefly explain what operating plans are.

Identify the six steps in the financial planning process.

List the advantages of computerized

pencil-and-paper calculations.

Discuss the importance of sales forecasts in the financial planning

process, and why managers construct pro forma financial statements.

Briefly explain the steps involved in the percent of sales method.

Calculate additional funds needed (AFN), using

financial statement approach and the formula method.

Explain the conditions under which the percent of sales method should not
be used.

Identify other techniques for forecasting financial statements discussed

in the text and explain when they should be used.

Harcourt, Inc.

financial

planning

both

models

the

over

projected

Learning Objectives: 4 - 1

LECTURE SUGGESTIONS

In Chapter 3, we looked at where the firm has been and where it is now--its
current strengths and weaknesses. Now, in Chapter 4, we look at where it is
projected to go in the future. The details of what we cover, and the way we
cover it, can be seen by scanning Blueprints, Chapter 4.
For other
suggestions about the lecture, please see the Lecture Suggestions in
Chapter 2, where we describe how we conduct our classes.
DAYS ON CHAPTER:

3 OF 58 DAYS (50-minute periods)

Lecture Suggestions: 4 - 2

Harcourt, Inc.

ANSWERS TO END-OF-CHAPTER QUESTIONS

4-1

Accounts
payable,
accrued
wages,
and
accrued
taxes
spontaneously and proportionately with sales.
Retained
increase, but not proportionately.

increase
earnings

4-2

The equation gives good forecasts of financial requirements if the

ratios A*/S0 and L*/S0, as well as M and RR, are stable.
Otherwise,
another forecasting technique should be used.

4-3

False. At low growth rates, internal financing will take care of the
firms needs.

4-4

False.

4-5

a. +.

The use of computerized planning models is increasing.

b. -. The firm needs less manufacturing facilities, raw materials, and

work in process.
c. +.
It reduces spontaneous
increase retained earnings.

funds;

however,

it

may

eventually

d. +.
e. +.
f. Probably +.
This should stimulate sales, so it may be offset in
part by increased profits.
g. 0.
h. +.

Harcourt, Inc.

Answers and Solutions: 4 - 3

SOLUTIONS TO END-OF-CHAPTER PROBLEMS

4-1

AFN = (A*/S0)S - (L*/S0)S - MS1(RR)

$3,000,000
$500,000
=
$1,000,000 -
$1,000,000
$5,000,000
$5,000,000
- 0.05($6,000,000)(0.3)
= (0.6)($1,000,000) - (0.1)($1,000,000) - ($300,000)(0.3)
= $600,000 - $100,000 - $90,000
= $410,000.

4-2

AFN =

$4,000,000
$1,000,000 - (0.1)($1,000,000) - ($300,000)(0.3)
$5,000,000

= (0.8)($1,000,000) - $100,000 - $90,000

= $800,000 - $190,000
= $610,000.
The capital intensity ratio is measured as A*/S 0. This firms capital
intensity ratio is higher than that of the firm in Problem 4-1;
therefore, this firm is more capital intensive--it would require a
large increase in total assets to support the increase in sales.
4-3

AFN = (0.6)($1,000,000) - (0.1)($1,000,000) - 0.05($6,000,000)(1)

= $600,000 - $100,000 - $300,000
= $200,000.
Under this scenario the company would have a higher level of retained
earnings, which would reduce the amount of additional funds needed.

4-4

Sales = $300,000,000; gSales = 12%; Inv. = $25 + 0.125(Sales).

S1 = $300,000,000 1.12 = $336,000,000.
Inv. = $25 + 0.125($336)
= $67 million.
Sales/Inv. = $336,000,000/$67,000,000 = 5.01.

4-5
Sales = $5,000,000,000; FA = $1,700,000,000; FA are operated at 90%
capacity.
a. Full capacity sales = $5,000,000,000/0.90 = $5,555,555,556.

Answers and Solutions: 4 - 4

Harcourt, Inc.

b. Target FA/S ratio = $1,700,000,000/$5,555,555,556 = 30.6%.

Harcourt, Inc.

Answers and Solutions: 4 - 5

c. Sales increase 12%; FA = ?

S1 = $5,000,000,000 1.12 = $5,600,000,000.
No increase in FA up to $5,555,555,556.
FA = 0.306 ($5,600,000,000 - $5,555,555,556)
= 0.306 ($44,444,444)
= $13,600,000.
4-6

a.
Sales
Oper. costs
EBIT
Interest
EBT
Taxes (40%)
Net income

2001
$700
500
$200
40
$160
64
$ 96

Dividends
Addit. to R/E

$ 32
$ 64

Forecast Basis
1.25
0.70 Sales

2002
$875.00
612.50
$262.50
40.00
$222.50
89.00
$133.50
$ 44.50
$ 89.00

b. Dividends = ($44.50 - $32.00)/$32.00 = 39.06%.

4-7
Sales
Oper.costs excluding
depreciation
EBITDA
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
EBT
Taxes (40%)
Net income
4-8

a.

Actual
$3,000

Forecast Basis
1.10

2,450
550
250
$ 300
125
$ 175
70
$ 105

0.80 Sales

2,640
660
275
$ 385
125
$ 260
104
$ 156

Income Statement:
Sales
Oper. costs
EBIT
Interest
EBT
Taxes (40%)
Net income

Forecast
Actual
Basis
$4,200 1.08
3,780 0.9 Sales
$ 420
120
$ 300
120
$ 180

Dividends
Addit. to R/E

$
$

Answers and Solutions: 4 - 6

Pro Forma
$3,300

0
180

$
0.0833 Sales

1st-Pass
Pro Forma AFN
$4,536.00
4,082.40
$ 453.60
120.00
$ 333.60
133.44
$ 200.16
$
$

0.00
200.16

2nd-Pass
Pro Forma
$4,536.00
4,082.40
$ 453.60
120.00
$ 333.60
133.44
$ 200.16
$
$

0.00
200.16

Harcourt, Inc.

Balance Sheet:
Cash & mkt. sec.
Accts rec.
Inventories
Total CA
Net fixed assets
Total assets
A/P & accruals
N/P
Total CL
LT debt
Common stock
RE
Total liab. & equity

Forecast
1st-Pass
Actual
Basis
Pro Forma AFN
$
42 0.01 Sales $
45.36
336 0.08 Sales
362.88
441
441.00
$ 819
$ 849.24
2,562 0.61 Sales
2,766.96
$3,381
$3,616.20

2nd-Pass
Pro Forma
$
45.36
362.88
441.00
$ 849.24
2,766.96
$3,616.20

168 0.04 Sales $ 181.44

250
250.00
$ 418
$ 431.44
700
700.00
400
400.00
1,863
+200.16
2,063.16
$3,381
$3,594.60

AFN

External Financing:
N/P
LT debt
Common stock

21.60

0.25 $21.60 = $ 5.40.

0.25 $21.60 = $ 5.40.
0.50 $21.60 = $10.80.

b.

2nd-Pass
Pro Forma

Prior year
ROE
8.09%
Inv. turnover
Profit margin

The
the
Its
its

4-9

a.

181.44
255.40
$ 436.84
5.40
705.40
10.80
410.80
2,063.16
$3,616.20
5.40

$180/($400 + $1,863) = 7.95% $200.16/($410.80 + $2,063.16) =

$4,200/$441 = 9.5238
$180/$4,200 = 4.29%

$4,536/$441 = 10.2857
$200.16/$4,536 = 4.41%

firms ROE, inventory turnover, and profit margin improves from

prior years ratios.
Its ROE increases from 7.95% to 8.09%.
inventory turnover ratio improves from 9.52 to 10.29. Finally,
profit margin increases from 4.29% to 4.41%.

Accounts payable + Long-term debt

Total liabilities
=
.
and equity
+ Common stock + Retained earnings
$1,200,000 = $375,000 + Long-term debt + $425,000 + $295,000
Long-term debt = $105,000.
Total debt = Accounts payable + Long-term debt
= $375,000 + $105,000 = $480,000.
Alternatively,

Total debt =

Harcourt, Inc.

Total
liabilities - Common stock Retained earnings
and equity
Answers and Solutions: 4 - 7

= $1,200,000 - $425,000 - $295,000 = $480,000.

Answers and Solutions: 4 - 8

Harcourt, Inc.

b. Assets/Sales (A*/S0) = $1,200,000/$2,500,000 = 48%.

L*/Sales (L*/S0) = $375,000/$2,500,000 = 15%.
2002 Sales = (1.25)($2,500,000) = $3,125,000.
AFN = (A*/S0)(S) - (L*/S0)(S) - MS1(RR) - New common stock
= (0.48)($625,000) - (0.15)($625,000)
- (0.06)($3,125,000)(0.6) - $75,000
= $300,000 - $93,750 - $112,500 - $75,000 = $18,750.
Alternatively, using the percent of sales method:

Total assets
Current liabilities
Long-term debt
Total debt
Common stock
Retained earnings
Total common equity
Total liabilities
and equity

Forecast
Basis Additions (New
2002
2001
2002 Sales Financing, R/E) Pro Forma
$1,200,000
0.48
$1,500,000
$

375,000
105,000
480,000
425,000
295,000
720,000

$
$

0.15

$
$
75,000*
112,500**
$

$1,200,000

468,750
105,000
573,750
500,000
407,500
907,500

$1,481,250

AFN = Long-term debt =

18,750

*Given in problem that firm will sell new common stock = $75,000.
**PM = 6%; RR = 60%; NI 2002 = $2,500,000 1.25 0.06 = $187,500.
Addition to RE = NI RR = $187,500 0.6 = $112,500.

4-10
Cash
Accounts receivable
Inventories
Net fixed assets
Total assets
Accounts payable
Notes payable
Accruals
Long-term debt
Common stock
Retained earnings
Total liabilities
and equity
AFN

2001
$ 100
200
200
500
$1,000
$

50
150
50
400
100
250

$1,000

Forecast
Basis
2002 Sales
0.10
0.20
0.20
+0.0*
0.05

2002
Pro Forma
$ 200
400
400
500
$1,500
$

0.05
+40**

100
150
100
400
100
290

$1,140
$

360

*Capacity sales = Current sales/0.5 = $1,000/0.5 = $2,000.

Harcourt, Inc.

Answers and Solutions: 4 - 9

Target FA/S ratio = $500/$2,000 = 0.25.

Target FA = 0.25($2,000) = $500 = Required FA.
$500 of FA, no new FA will be required.

Since the firm currently has

**Addition to RE = M(S 1)(RR) = 0.05($2,000)(0.4) = $40.

4-11

S2001 = $2,000,000; A2001 = $1,500,000; CL2001 = $500,000;

NP2001 = $200,000; A/P2001 = $200,000; Accruals2001 = $100,000;
A*/S0 = 0.75; PM = 5%; RR = 40%; S?
AFN = (A*/S0)S - (L*/S0)S - MS1(RR)
$300,000
S -(0.05)(S1)(0.4)
= (0.75)S -
$2,000,000
= (0.75)S - (0.15)S - (0.02)S1
= (0.6)S - (0.02)S1
= 0.6(S1 - S0) - (0.02)S1
= 0.6(S1 - $2,000,000) - (0.02)S1
= 0.6S1 - $1,200,000 - 0.02S1
$1,200,000 = 0.58S1
$2,068,965.52 = S1.
Sales can increase by $2,068,965.52 - $2,000,000 = $68,965.52 without
additional funds being needed.

4-12

a. AFN = (A*/S0)(S) - (L*/S0)(S) - MS1(RR)

$12 .5 $17.5 10.5

($70)- ($70)- ($420)(0.6)
$350 $350 $350

= $13.44 million.

b.

Tozer Computers
Pro Forma Balance Sheet
December 31, 2002
(Millions of Dollars)
2002
Pro

Forecast
Forma

Basis
2001
2002 Sales

2002
Additions
Pro Forma

after
Financing

Financing
Cash

3.5

0.01

4.20

4.20
Receivables

26.0

0.0743

31.20

Inventories

58.0

0.1657

69.60

31.20
69.60
Total current
assets

$ 87.5

$105.00

$105.00

Answers and Solutions: 4 - 10

Harcourt, Inc.

Net

fixed

assets

35.0

0.1000

42.00

42.00
Total

assets

$122.5

$147.00

$147.00
Accounts payable $

9.0

0.0257

Notes payable

18.0

$ 10.80

10.80
18.00

+13.44

31.44
Accruals

8.5

0.0243

10.20

10.20
Total current
liabilities

$ 35.5

$ 39.00

52.44
Mortgage

loan

6.0

6.00

15.0

15.00

6.00
Common

stock

15.00
Retained

earnings

66.0

7.56*

73.56

73.56
Total liab.
and equity

$122.5

$133.56

$147.00
AFN =
*PM = $10.5/$350 = 3%.
RR =

$ 13.44

($10.5 $4.2)
= 60%.
$10.5

NI = $350 1.2 0.03 = $12.6.

Addition to RE = NI RR
= $12.6 0.6 = $7.56.

c. Current ratio = $105/$52.44 = 2.00.

The current ratio is poor compared to 2.5 in 2001 and the industry
average of 3.
Debt/Total assets = $58.44/$147 = 39.8%.
The debt-to-total assets ratio is too high compared to 33.9 percent
in 2001 and a 30 percent industry average.

Rate of return
on equity

(Profit margin)(Sales)
Stock + Retained earnings

Net income $12.60

= = 14.2%.
Equity $88.56

The rate of return on equity is good compared to 13 percent in 2001

and a 12 percent industry average.
d. 1.

Harcourt, Inc.

$122.5
$17.5
Financial
requirements = $350 ($70) - $350 ($70)
Answers and Solutions: 4 - 11

= - (0.03)(0.6)($364 + $378 + $392 + $406 + $420)

= $24.5 - $3.5 - $35.28
= -$14.28 million surplus funds.
2.

Tozer Computers
Pro Forma Balance Sheet
December 31, 2006
(Millions of Dollars)

Forma
Financing

2006
Pro

Forecast
Basis
2001 2006 Sales

2006
Additions

Total curr. assets $ 87.50

Net fixed assets
35.00
Total assets
$122.50

0.25
0.10

$105.00
42.00
$147.00

Accounts payable
Notes payable
Accruals
Total current
liabilities
Mortgage loan
Common stock
Retained earnings
Total liab.
and equity

0.0257

$ 10.80
18.00
10.20

AFN =

Answers and Solutions: 4 - 12

9.00
18.00
8.50

$ 35.50
6.00
15.00
66.00
$122.50

0.0243

$35.28*

Pro Forma

after
Financing
$105.00
42.00
$147.00

-14.28

$ 10.80
3.72
10.20

$ 39.00
6.00
15.00
101.28

$ 24.72
6.00
15.00
101.28

$161.28

$147.00

-$14.28

Harcourt, Inc.

*PM = 3%; Payout = 40%.

NI = 0.03 ($364 + $378 + $392 + $406 + $420) = $58.8.

Addition to RE = NI RR = $58.8 0.6 = $35.28.

3. Current ratio = $105/$24.72 = 4.25 (good).

Debt/Total assets = $30.72/$147 = 20.9% (good).
Return on equity = $12.6/$116.28 = 10.84% (low).*
*The rate of return declines because of the decrease in the
ratio. The firm might, with this slow growth, consider
increase. A dividend increase would reduce future increases
earnings, and in turn, common equity, which would help boost

debt/assets
a dividend
in retained
the ROE.

e. Tozer probably could carry out either the slow growth or fast growth
plan, but under the fast growth plan (20 percent per year), the risk
ratios would deteriorate, indicating that the company might have
trouble with its bankers and would be increasing the odds of
bankruptcy.
4-13

Cooley Textiles
Pro Forma Income Statement
December 31, 2002
(Thousands of Dollars)

Sales
Operating costs
EBIT
Interest
EBT
Taxes (40%)
Net income

2001
$36,000
32,440
$ 3,560
560
$ 3,000
1,200
$ 1,800

Dividends (45%)
Addition to RE

$
$

Harcourt, Inc.

810
990

Forecast
Basis
1.15
0.9011

2002
Pro Forma
$41,400
37,306
$ 4,094
560
$ 3,534
1,414
$ 2,120
$
954
$ 1,166

Answers and Solutions: 4 - 13

Cooley Textiles
Pro Forma Balance Sheet
December 31, 2002
(Thousands of Dollars)

2002
Pro

Forecast
Forma

Basis
2002
after
2001 2002 Sales Additions Pro Forma Financing

Financing
Cash
1,242
Accounts receivable
7,452
Inventories
10,350
Total curr. assets
$19,044
Fixed assets
14,490
Total assets
$33,534
Accounts payable

$ 1,080

0.03

6,480

$ 1,242

0.18

9,000

7,452

0.25

10,350

$16,560

$19,044

12,600

0.35

14,490

$29,160
$ 4,320

$33,534

0.12

$ 4,968

4,968
Accruals

2,880

0.08

3,312

3,312
Notes payable

2,100

2,100

+2,128

4,228
Total current
liabilities

$ 9,300

$12,508
Long-term debt
3,500
Total debt
$16,008
Common stock
3,500
Retained earnings
14,026
Total liabilities
and equity
$33,534

$10,380

3,500

3,500

$12,800

$13,880

3,500

3,500

12,860

1,166*

$29,160

AFN =

14,026
$31,406

$ 2,128

*From income statement.

4-14

Full

Current sales

sales

FA were operated

a. capacity = % of capacity at which =

% increase =

$36,000
0.75
= $48,000.

$48,000 - $36,000
New sales - Old sales
=
= 0.33 = 33%.
$36,000
Old sales

Answers and Solutions: 4 - 14

Harcourt, Inc.

Therefore, sales could expand by 33 percent before the firm would

need to add fixed assets.
b.

Krogh Lumber
Pro Forma Income Statement
December 31, 2002
(Thousands of Dollars)

Sales
Operating costs
EBIT
Interest
EBT
Taxes (40%)
Net income
Dividends (60%)
Addition to RE

2002
Pro Forma
$45,000
38,479
$ 6,521
1,017
$ 5,504
2,202
$ 3,302

$ 1,512
$ 1,008
Krogh Lumber
Pro Forma Balance Sheet
December 31, 2002
(Thousands of Dollars)

2001
Cash

Forecast
Basis
1.25
0.8551

2001
$36,000
30,783
$ 5,217
1,017
$ 4,200
1,680
$ 2,520

$ 1,981
$ 1,321

Forecast
Basis
2002 Sales Additions

2002
1st
Pass

$ 1,800

0.05

$ 2,250

Receivables

10,800

0.30

13,500

Inventories

12,600

0.35

15,750

2002
2nd
Pass

AFN
$

2,250
13,500
15,750
Total current
assets

$25,200

$31,500

$31,500
Net fixed assets

21,600

21,600*

21,600
Total assets

$46,800

Accounts payable
9,000
Notes payable

$ 7,200

$53,100

$53,100
0.20

3,472

$ 9,000
3,472

$
+2,549

6,021
Accruals

2,520

0.07

3,150

3,150
Total current
liabilities

$13,192

$15,622

Mortgage bonds

5,000

5,000

Common stock

2,000

2,000

$18,171
5,000
2,000

Harcourt, Inc.

Answers and Solutions: 4 - 15

Retained earnings

26,608

1,321**

27,929

27,929
Total liabilities
and equity

$46,800

$50,551

$53,100
AFN =

$ 2,549

*From Part a we know that sales can increase by 33% before additions to
fixed assets are needed.
**See income statement.

c. The rate of return projected for 2002 under the conditions in Part b
is (calculations in thousands):
ROE =

$3,302
= 11.03%.
$29,929

If the firm attained the industry average DSO and inventory turnover
ratio, this would mean a reduction in financial requirements of:
Receivables:

A/R
= 90
$45,000/365
New A/R = $11,096.

in A/R = $13,500 - $11,096 = $2,404.

Inventory:

$45,000
= 3.33; Inv. = $13,500.
Inv.

in Inv. = $15,750 - $13,500 = $2,250.

Total in assets = $2,404 + $2,250 = $4,654.
If this freed-up capital was used to reduce equity, then common
equity would be $29,929 - $4,654 = $25,275. Assuming no change in
net income, the new ROE would be:
ROE =

$3,302
= 13.06%.
$25,275

One would, in a real analysis, want to consider both the feasibility

of maintaining sales if receivables and inventories were reduced and
also other possible effects on the profit margin.
Also, note that
the current ratio was $25,200/$13,192 = 1.91 in 2001.
It is
projected to decline in Part b to $31,500/$18,171 = 1.73, and the
latest change would cause a further reduction to ($31,500 - $4,654)/
$18,171 = 1.48. Creditors might not tolerate such a reduction in
liquidity and might insist that at least some of the freed-up
capital be used to reduce notes payable.
Still, this would reduce
interest charges, which would increase the profit margin, which

Answers and Solutions: 4 - 16

Harcourt, Inc.

would in turn increase the ROE. Management should always consider

the possibility of changing ratios as part of financial projections.
4-15

a.

Morrissey Technologies Inc.

Pro Forma Income Statement
December 31, 2002

Sales
Operating Costs
EBIT
Interest
EBT
Taxes (40%)
Net income

2001
$3,600,000
3,279,720
$ 320,280
20,280
$ 300,000
120,000
$ 180,000

Dividends: $1.08 100,000 =

Addition to RE:

$
$

108,000
72,000

Forecast
Basis
1.10
0.9110

2002
Pro Forma
$3,960,000
3,607,692
$ 352,308
20,280
$ 332,028
132,811
$ 199,217
$
$

112,000*
87,217

*2002 Dividends = $1.12 100,000 = $112,000.

Harcourt, Inc.

Answers and Solutions: 4 - 17

Morrissey Technologies Inc.

Pro Forma Balance Statement
December 31, 2002

Cash
Receivables
Inventories
Total current
assets
Fixed assets
Total assets
Accounts payable
Notes payable
Accruals
Total current
liabilities
Common stock
Retained earnings
Total liab.
and equity

Forecast
Basis
2001
2002 Sales
180,000
0.05
360,000
0.10
720,000
0.20

Additions

2002
Pro Forma
$ 198,000
396,000
792,000

$1,260,000
1,440,000
$2,700,000

0.40

$1,386,000
1,584,000
$2,970,000

0.10

360,000
156,000
180,000

0.05

396,000
156,000
198,000

696,000
1,800,000
204,000

750,000
1,800,000
291,217

87,217*

$2,700,000

$2,841,217

AFN =

128,783

*See income statement.

b.

AFN = $2,700,000/$3,600,000(Sales)
- ($360,000 + $180,000)/$3,600,000(Sales)
- (0.05)($3,600,000 + Sales)0.4
$0 = 0.75(Sales) - 0.15(Sales) - 0.02(Sales) - $72,000
$0 = 0.58(Sales) - $72,000
$72,000 = 0.58(Sales)
Sales = $124,138.

Growth rate in sales =

4-16

a. & b.

Sales $124,138
= = 3.45%.
$3,600,000 $3,600,000

Lewis Company
Pro Forma Income Statement
December 31, 2002
(Thousands of Dollars)
2001

Forecast Basis

2002 Pro

Forma
Sales
Operating costs
EBIT
Answers and Solutions: 4 - 18

$8,000
7,450
$ 550

1.2
0.9313

$9,600
8,940
$ 660
Harcourt, Inc.

Interest
EBT
Taxes (40%)
Net income

$
$

150
400
160
240

Dividends: $1.04 150 = $

Addition to R.E.:
$

156
$1.10 150 =
84
Lewis Company
Pro Forma Balance Sheet
December 31, 2002
(Thousands of Dollars)

2001
Cash
Receivables
Inventories
Total current
assets
Fixed assets
Total assets

Forecast
1st
Basis
Pass
2002 Sales Additions 2002

80
240
720

0.010
0.030
0.090

$1,040
3,200
$4,240

0.400

Accounts payable
160
Accruals
40
Notes payable
252
Total current
liabilities
$ 452
Long-term debt
1,244
Total debt
$1,696
Common stock
1,605
Retained earnings
939
Total liabilities
and equity
$4,240

150
510
204
306

$
$

165
141

0.020
0.005

96
288
864

AFN =

96
288
864

$1,248
3,840
$5,088

$1,248
3,840
$5,088

192
48
252

141*

2nd
AFN
Pass
Effects 2002

492
1,244
$1,736
1,605
1,080
$4,421
$

+ 51**

192
48
303

543
1,492
$2,035
+368** 1,973
1,080
+248**

$5,088

667

*See income statement.

**CA/CL = 2.3; D/A = 40%.
Maximum total debt = 0.4 $5,088 = $2,035.
Maximum increase in debt = $2,035 - $1,736 = $299.
Maximum current liabilities = $1,248/2.3 = $543.
Increase in notes payable = $543 - $492 = $51.
Increase in long-term debt = $299 - $51 = $248.
Increase in common stock = $667 - $299 = $368.

Harcourt, Inc.

Answers and Solutions: 4 - 19

SPREADSHEET PROBLEM

4-17

The detailed solution for the spreadsheet problem is available both on

the instructors resource CD-ROM and on the instructors side of the
Harcourt College Publishers web site:
http://www.harcourtcollege.com/finance/concise3e.

CYBERPROBLEM

4-18

The detailed solution for the cyberproblem is available on the

instructors side of the Harcourt College Publishers web site:
http://www.harcourtcollege.com/finance/concise3e.

INTEGRATED CASE

New World Chemicals Inc.

Financial Forecasting
4-19

SUE WILSON, THE NEW FINANCIAL MANAGER OF NEW WORLD CHEMICALS (NWC),
A CALIFORNIA PRODUCER OF SPECIALIZED CHEMICALS FOR USE IN FRUIT
ORCHARDS, MUST PREPARE A FINANCIAL FORECAST FOR 2002.
SALES

NWCS 2001

WERE

$2 BILLION, AND THE MARKETING DEPARTMENT IS FORECASTING A 25 PERCENT

INCREASE FOR 2002.

WILSON THINKS THE COMPANY WAS OPERATING AT FULL

CAPACITY

BUT

IN

2001,

SHE

IS

NOT

SURE

ABOUT

THIS.

THE

2001

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS, PLUS SOME OTHER DATA, ARE GIVEN IN TABLE IC4-1.

TABLE IC4-1. FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND OTHER DATA ON NWC

(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
A.

2001 BALANCE SHEET

CASH & SECURITIES
$
ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE
INVENTORIES
TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS $
NET FIXED ASSETS
TOTAL ASSETS

B.

20
240
240
500

500
$1,000

ACCOUNTS PAYABLE AND ACCRUALS

NOTES PAYABLE
TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES
LONG-TERM DEBT
COMMON STOCK
RETAINED EARNINGS
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY

2001 INCOME STATEMENT

SALES
LESS: VARIABLE COSTS
FIXED COSTS
EARNINGS BEFORE INTEREST AND TAXES (EBIT)
INTEREST
EARNINGS BEFORE TAXES (EBT)
TAXES (40%)
NET INCOME

$2,000.00
1,200.00
700.00
$ 100.00
16.00
$
84.00
33.60
$
50.40

DIVIDENDS (30%)
ADDITION TO RETAINED EARNINGS

$
$

Harcourt, Inc.

100
100
$ 200
100
500
200
$1,000

15.12
35.28

Integrated Case: 4 - 21

C.

KEY RATIOS
BASIC EARNING POWER
PROFIT MARGIN
RETURN ON EQUITY
DAYS SALES OUTSTANDING (365 DAYS)
INVENTORY TURNOVER
FIXED ASSETS TURNOVER
TOTAL ASSETS TURNOVER
DEBT/ASSETS
TIMES INTEREST EARNED
CURRENT RATIO
PAYOUT RATIO

NWC
10.00%
2.52
7.20
43.80 DAYS
8.33
4.00
2.00
30.00%
6.25
2.50
30.00%

INDUSTRY
20.00%
4.00
15.60
32.00 DAYS
11.00
5.00
2.50
36.00%
9.40
3.00
30.00%

COMMENT

ASSUME THAT YOU WERE RECENTLY HIRED AS WILSONS ASSISTANT, AND

YOUR FIRST MAJOR TASK IS TO HELP HER DEVELOP THE FORECAST.

SHE

ASKED YOU TO BEGIN BY ANSWERING THE FOLLOWING SET OF QUESTIONS.

A.

ASSUME (1) THAT NWC WAS OPERATING AT FULL CAPACITY IN 2001 WITH
RESPECT TO ALL ASSETS, (2) THAT ALL ASSETS MUST GROW PROPORTIONALLY
WITH SALES, (3) THAT ACCOUNTS PAYABLE AND ACCRUALS WILL ALSO GROW IN
PROPORTION

TO

SALES,

AND

(4)

THAT

DIVIDEND PAYOUT WILL BE MAINTAINED.

THE

2001

PROFIT

MARGIN

AND

UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, WHAT

WILL THE COMPANYS FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS BE FOR THE COMING YEAR?

USE THE AFN EQUATION TO ANSWER THIS QUESTION.
ANSWER:

[SHOW S4-1 THROUGH S4-7 HERE.]

NWC WILL NEED $180.9 MILLION.

HERE

IS THE AFN EQUATION:

AFN = (A*/S0)S - (L*/S0)S - M(S1)(RR)
= (A*/S0)(g)(S0) - (L*/S0)(g)(S0) - M(S0)(1 + g)(RR)
= ($1,000/$2,000)(0.25)($2,000) - ($100/$2,000)(0.25)($2,000)
- 0.0252($2,000)(1.25)(0.7)
= $250 - $25 - $44.1 = $180.9 MILLION.

B.

NOW ESTIMATE THE 2002 FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS USING THE PROJECTED

FINANCIAL STATEMENT APPROACH.

DISREGARD THE ASSUMPTIONS IN PART A,

AND NOW ASSUME (1) THAT EACH TYPE OF ASSET, AS WELL AS PAYABLES,
ACCRUALS, AND FIXED AND VARIABLE COSTS, GROW IN PROPORTION TO SALES;
(2) THAT NWC WAS OPERATING AT FULL CAPACITY; (3) THAT THE PAYOUT
RATIO IS HELD CONSTANT AT 30 PERCENT; AND (4) THAT EXTERNAL FUNDS
Integrated Case: 4 - 22

Harcourt, Inc.

NEEDED ARE FINANCED 50 PERCENT BY NOTES PAYABLE AND 50 PERCENT BY

LONG-TERM DEBT.
ANSWER:

(NO NEW COMMON STOCK WILL BE ISSUED.)

[SHOW S4-8 THROUGH S4-15 HERE.]

SEE THE COMPLETED WORKSHEET.

THE

PROBLEM IS NOT DIFFICULT TO DO BY HAND, BUT WE USED A SPREADSHEET

MODEL FOR THE FLEXIBILITY SUCH A MODEL PROVIDES.
PREDICTED g:
ACTUAL g:
INCOME STATEMENT:
SALES
LESS: VC(% SALES)
FC(% SALES)
EBIT
INTEREST (8%)
EBT
TAXES
NET INCOME
DIVIDENDS
ADDN TO R.E.
BALANCE SHEET:

25.00%
25.00%

60.00%
35.00%

40.0%
30.0%

2001
ACTUAL

2002
PRO FORMA

$2,000.00
(1,200.00)
(700.00)
$ 100.00
(16.00)
$
84.00
(33.60)
$
50.40

$2,500.00
(1,500.00)
(875.00)
$ 125.00
(16.00)
$ 109.00
(43.60)
$
65.40

$
$

$
$

15.12
35.28
2001
ACTUAL

19.62
45.78
2002
1ST PASS

CASH & SECURITIES

ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE
INVENTORIES
CURRENT ASSETS
NET FA (% CAP)
100.0%
TOTAL ASSETS

20.00
240.00
240.00
$ 500.00
500.00
$1,000.00

A/P AND ACCRUALS

N/P (SHORT-TERM)
L-T DEBT
COMMON STOCK
RETAINED EARNINGS
TOTAL LIAB & EQUITY

100.00
100.00
100.00
500.00
200.00
$1,000.00

AFN
AFN FINANCING:
N/P
L-T DEBT
COMMON STOCK

Harcourt, Inc.

25.00
300.00
300.00
$ 625.00
625.00
$1,250.00
125.00
100.00
100.00
500.00
245.78
$1,070.78
$

WEIGHTS
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00

2002
2ND PASS

AFN
$

25.00
300.00
300.00
$ 625.00
625.00
$1,250.00
$
89.61
89.61

125.00
189.61
189.61
500.00
245.78
$1,250.00

179.22
DOLLARS
$ 89.61
89.61
0.00
$179.22

Integrated Case: 4 - 23

AFN EQUATION FORECAST:

AFN = (A*/S0) g S0 - (L*/S0) g S0 - M S1 RR
= $250 - $25 - $44.1
= $180.9 VERSUS BALANCE SHEET FORECAST OF $179.22.

C.

WHY DO THE TWO METHODS PRODUCE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT AFN FORECASTS?

WHICH METHOD PROVIDES THE MORE ACCURATE FORECAST?

ANSWER:

[SHOW S4-16 HERE.]

THE DIFFERENCE OCCURS BECAUSE THE AFN EQUATION

METHOD ASSUMES THAT THE PROFIT MARGIN REMAINS CONSTANT, WHILE THE
FORECASTED BALANCE SHEET METHOD PERMITS THE PROFIT MARGIN TO VARY.
THE BALANCE SHEET METHOD IS SOMEWHAT MORE ACCURATE (ESPECIALLY WHEN
ADDITIONAL PASSES ARE MADE AND FINANCING FEEDBACKS ARE CONSIDERED),
BUT

IN

THIS

CASE

THE

DIFFERENCE

IS

NOT

VERY

LARGE.

THE

REAL

ADVANTAGE OF THE BALANCE SHEET METHOD IS THAT IT CAN BE USED WHEN

EVERYTHING

DOES

NOT

INCREASE

PROPORTIONATELY

WITH

SALES.

IN

ADDITION, FORECASTERS GENERALLY WANT TO SEE THE RESULTING RATIOS,

AND THE BALANCE SHEET METHOD IS NECESSARY TO DEVELOP THE RATIOS.
IN PRACTICE, THE ONLY TIME WE HAVE EVER SEEN THE AFN EQUATION
USED

IS

TO

PROVIDE

(1)

QUICK

AND

DIRTY

FORECAST

PRIOR

TO

DEVELOPING THE BALANCE SHEET FORECAST AND (2) A ROUGH CHECK ON THE
BALANCE SHEET FORECAST.

D.

CALCULATE

NWCS

FORECASTED

RATIOS,

AND

COMPARE

THEM

COMPANYS 2001 RATIOS AND WITH THE INDUSTRY AVERAGES.

WITH

THE

HOW DOES NWC

COMPARE WITH THE AVERAGE FIRM IN ITS INDUSTRY, AND IS THE COMPANY
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DURING THE COMING YEAR?

Integrated Case: 4 - 24

Harcourt, Inc.

ANSWER:

[SHOW S4-17 HERE.]

KEY RATIOS:
NWC

BASIC EARNING POWER

PROFIT MARGIN
ROE
DAYS SALES OUTSTANDING (365 DAYS)
INVENTORY TURNOVER
FIXED ASSETS TURNOVER
TOTAL ASSETS TURNOVER
DEBT/ASSETS
TIMES INTEREST EARNED
CURRENT RATIO
PAYOUT RATIO

2001
10.00%
2.52
7.20
43.80 DAYS
8.33
4.00
2.00
30.00%
6.25
2.50
30.00%

2002(E)
10.00%
2.62
8.77
43.80 DAYS
8.33
4.00
2.00
40.34%
7.81
1.99
30.00%

INDUSTRY
2001
20.00%
4.00
15.60
32.00 DAYS
11.00
5.00
2.50
36.00%
9.40
3.00
30.00%

NWCS BEP, PROFIT MARGIN, AND ROE ARE ONLY ABOUT HALF AS HIGH AS THE
INDUSTRY AVERAGE--NWC IS NOT VERY PROFITABLE RELATIVE TO OTHER FIRMS
IN ITS INDUSTRY.
TURNOVER

RATIO

IS

FURTHER, ITS DSO IS TOO HIGH, AND ITS INVENTORY

TOO

LOW,

WHICH

INDICATES

CARRYING EXCESS INVENTORY AND RECEIVABLES.

THAT

THE

COMPANY

IS

IN ADDITION, ITS DEBT

RATIO IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ABOVE THE INDUSTRY AVERAGE, AND ITS

COVERAGE RATIO IS LOW.

THE COMPANY IS NOT IN GOOD SHAPE, AND THINGS

DO NOT APPEAR TO BE IMPROVING.

E.

CALCULATE NWCS FREE CASH FLOW FOR 2002.

ANSWER:

[SHOW S4-18 AND S4-19 HERE.]

OPERATING CAPITAL2001 = NOWC + NFA
= ($500 - $100) + $500
= $900.
OPERATING CAPITAL2002 = NOWC + NFA
= ($625 - $125) + $625
= $1,125.
NET INVESTMENT IN OPERATING CAPITAL = $1,125 - $900 = $225.

Harcourt, Inc.

Integrated Case: 4 - 25

FCF = NOPAT - NET INVESTMENT IN OPERATING CAPITAL

= EBIT(1 - T) - NET INVESTMENT IN OPERATING CAPITAL
= $125(0.6) - $225
= $75 - $225
= -$150.

F.

SUPPOSE YOU NOW LEARN THAT NWCS 2001 RECEIVABLES AND INVENTORIES
WERE

IN

LINE

WITH

REQUIRED

LEVELS,

GIVEN

THE

FIRMS

CREDIT

AND

INVENTORY POLICIES, BUT THAT EXCESS CAPACITY EXISTED WITH REGARD TO

FIXED ASSETS. SPECIFICALLY, FIXED ASSETS WERE OPERATED AT ONLY 75
PERCENT OF CAPACITY.
1. WHAT LEVEL OF SALES COULD HAVE EXISTED IN 2001 WITH THE AVAILABLE
FIXED ASSETS?

WHAT WOULD THE FIXED ASSETS-TO-SALES RATIO HAVE BEEN

IF NWC HAD BEEN OPERATING AT FULL CAPACITY?

ANSWER:

[SHOW S4-20 HERE.]

FULL CAPACITY SALES =

ACTUAL SALES
$2,000
=
= $2,667.
% OF CAPACITY AT WHICH 0.75
FIXED ASSETS WERE OPERATED

SINCE THE FIRM STARTED WITH EXCESS FIXED ASSET CAPACITY, IT WILL NOT
HAVE TO ADD AS MUCH FIXED ASSETS DURING 2002 AS WAS ORIGINALLY
FORECASTED:

TARGET FA/SALES RATIO =

FIXED ASSETS $500

= = 18.75% .
FULL CAPACITY SALES $2,667

THE ADDITIONAL FIXED ASSETS NEEDED WILL BE 0.1875(PREDICTED SALES CAPACITY SALES) IF PREDICTED SALES EXCEED CAPACITY SALES, OTHERWISE
NO NEW FIXED ASSETS WILL BE NEEDED.

IN THIS CASE, PREDICTED SALES =

1.25($2,000) = $2,500, WHICH IS LESS THAN CAPACITY SALES, SO THE

EXPECTED SALES GROWTH WILL NOT REQUIRE ANY ADDITIONAL FIXED ASSETS.

Integrated Case: 4 - 26

Harcourt, Inc.

F.

2. HOW WOULD THE EXISTENCE OF EXCESS CAPACITY IN FIXED ASSETS AFFECT

THE ADDITIONAL FUNDS NEEDED DURING 2002?

ANSWER:

[SHOW S4-21 AND S4-22 HERE.]

WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FOUND AN AFN OF

$179.22 USING THE BALANCE SHEET METHOD AND $180.9 USING THE AFN
FORMULA.
$125.

G.

IN BOTH CASES, THE FIXED ASSETS INCREASE WAS 0.25($500) =

THERE-FORE, THE FUNDS NEEDED WILL DECLINE BY $125.

WITHOUT ACTUALLY WORKING OUT THE NUMBERS, HOW WOULD YOU EXPECT THE
RATIOS TO CHANGE IN THE SITUATION WHERE EXCESS CAPACITY IN FIXED
ASSETS EXISTS?

ANSWER:

EXPLAIN YOUR REASONING.

[SHOW S4-23 AND S4-24 HERE.]

TO IMPROVE.

WE WOULD EXPECT ALMOST ALL THE RATIOS

WITH LESS FINANCING, INTEREST EXPENSE WOULD BE REDUCED.

DEPRECIATION AND MAINTENANCE, IN RELATION TO SALES, WOULD DECLINE.

THESE CHANGES WOULD IMPROVE THE BEP, PROFIT MARGIN, AND ROE.
THE TOTAL ASSETS TURNOVER RATIO WOULD IMPROVE.

ALSO,

SIMILARLY, WITH LESS

DEBT FINANCING, THE DEBT RATIO AND THE CURRENT RATIO WOULD BOTH
IMPROVE, AS WOULD THE TIE RATIO.
WITHOUT

QUESTION,

THE

COMPANYS

FINANCIAL

POSITION

WOULD

BE

BETTER. ONE CANNOT TELL EXACTLY HOW LARGE THE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
WITHOUT WORKING OUT THE NUMBERS, BUT WHEN WE WORKED THEM OUT WE
OBTAINED THE FOLLOWING NUMBERS:
KEY RATIOS
BASIC EARNING POWER
PROFIT MARGIN
ROE
DAYS SALES OUTSTANDING
INVENTORY TURNOVER
FIXED ASSETS TURNOVER
TOTAL ASSETS TURNOVER
DEBT/ASSETS
TIMES INTEREST EARNED
CURRENT RATIO
PAYOUT RATIO
(NOTE

THAT

FINANCING

2002 PRO FORMA

% OF 2001 CAPACITY
75%
100%
11.11%
10.00%
2.62
2.62
8.77
8.77
43.80 DAYS
43.80 DAYS
8.33
8.33
5.00
4.00
2.22
2.00
33.71%
40.34%
7.81
7.81
2.48
1.99
30.00%
30.00%

2001
10.00%
2.52
7.20
43.80 DAYS
8.33
4.00
2.00
30.00%
6.25
2.50
30.00%
FEEDBACKS

HAVE

NOT

BEEN

CONSIDERED

IN

THE

RATIOS ABOVE.)

Harcourt, Inc.

Integrated Case: 4 - 27

H.

ON THE BASIS OF COMPARISONS BETWEEN NWCS DAYS SALES OUTSTANDING

(DSO)

AND

FIGURES,

INVENTORY

DOES

IT

TURNOVER

APPEAR

THAT

RATIOS

WITH

NWC

OPERATING

IS

THE

INDUSTRY

EFFICIENTLY

RESPECT TO ITS INVENTORIES AND ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE?

WERE

ABLE

TO

BRING

THESE

RATIOS

INTO

LINE

AVERAGE
WITH

IF THE COMPANY

WITH

THE

INDUSTRY

AVERAGES, WHAT EFFECT WOULD THIS HAVE ON ITS AFN AND ITS FINANCIAL
RATIOS?

(NOTE:

INVENTORIES AND RECEIVABLES WILL BE DISCUSSED IN

DETAIL IN CHAPTER 15.)

ANSWER:

[SHOW S4-25 HERE.]

THE DSO AND INVENTORY TURNOVER RATIO INDICATE

THAT NWC HAS EXCESSIVE INVENTORIES AND RECEIVABLES.

THE EFFECT OF

IMPROVE-MENTS HERE WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT ASSOCIATED WITH EXCESS

CAPACITY

IN

FIXED

ASSETS.

SALES

COULD

BE

PROPORTIONATE INCREASES IN CURRENT ASSETS.

EXPANDED

WITHOUT

(ACTUALLY, THESE ITEMS

COULD PROBABLY BE REDUCED EVEN IF SALES DID NOT INCREASE.)

THUS,

THE AFN WOULD BE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY DETERMINED, AND THIS WOULD
REDUCE

FINANCING

AND

POSSIBLY

OTHER

COSTS.

AS

WE

WILL

SEE

IN

CHAPTER 15, THERE MAY BE OTHER COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH REDUCING THE
FIRMS

INVESTMENT

IN

ACCOUNTS

RECEIVABLE

AND

INVENTORIES,

WHICH

WOULD LEAD TO IMPROVEMENTS IN MOST OF THE RATIOS. (THE CURRENT RATIO

WOULD DECLINE UNLESS THE FUNDS FREED UP WERE USED TO REDUCE CURRENT
LIABILITIES, WHICH WOULD PROBABLY BE DONE.) AGAIN, TO GET A PRECISE
FORECAST, WE WOULD NEED SOME ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, AND WE WOULD
NEED TO MODIFY THE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS.

I.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SALES AND THE VARIOUS TYPES OF ASSETS IS

IMPORTANT IN FINANCIAL FORECASTING.

THE FINANCIAL STATEMENT METHOD,

UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT EACH ASSET ITEM GROWS PROPORTIONALLY WITH
SALES, LEADS TO AN AFN FORECAST THAT IS REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE
FORECAST USING THE AFN EQUATION.

EXPLAIN HOW EACH OF THE FOLLOWING

FACTORS WOULD AFFECT THE ACCURACY OF FINANCIAL FORECASTS BASED ON

THE AFN EQUATION:

(1) EXCESS CAPACITY; (2) BASE STOCKS OF ASSETS,

SUCH AS SHOES IN A SHOE STORE; (3) ECONOMIES OF SCALE IN THE USE OF

ASSETS; AND (4) LUMPY ASSETS.
ANSWER:

[SHOW S4-26 AND S4-27 HERE.]

Integrated Case: 4 - 28

Harcourt, Inc.

1. EXCESS CAPACITY.
EXCESS

CAPACITY

WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN THAT THE EXISTENCE OF

INVALIDATES

THE

AFN

EQUATION

MODIFICATION IN THE BALANCE SHEET FORECAST.

AND

REQUIRES

THE AFN EQUATION

COULD BE MODIFIED IN SEVERAL WAYS, BUT IT IS NOT WORTHWHILE GOING

INTO THESE MODIFICATIONS BECAUSE THE FINANCIAL STATEMENT METHOD
IS BETTER AND IT ALSO CAN BE USED TO PRODUCE RATIO DATA, WHICH IS
ESSENTIAL.

IN ANY EVENT, THE EXISTENCE OF EXCESS CAPACITY LEADS

TO TOO HIGH A FORECAST OF AFN UNLESS APPROPRIATE MODIFICATIONS

ARE MADE.
2. BASE STOCKS ARE USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH INVENTORIES, WHERE THE
FIRM MUST HAVE A MINIMUM STOCK TO DO ANY BUSINESS AT ALL.

THINK

OF A SHOE STORE, WHICH MUST KEEP A NUMBER OF STYLES, COLORS, AND

SIZES ON HAND IN ORDER TO DO EVEN A SMALL AMOUNT OF BUSINESS. THE
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SALES AND INVENTORIES WILL PROBABLY LOOK AS
FOLLOWS:

Inve nto ries

Ba se
Sto ck

Sa les

3. ECONOMIES OF SCALE IN THE USE OF ASSETS MEAN THAT THE ASSET ITEM
IN QUESTION MUST INCREASE LESS THAN PROPORTIONATELY WITH SALES;
HENCE IT WILL GROW LESS RAPIDLY THAN SALES.

CASH IS A COMMON

EXAMPLE, AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO SALES WOULD BE AS FOLLOWS:

Harcourt, Inc.

Integrated Case: 4 - 29

Inventories
Ca sh

Sa
les
Sales

00

INVENTORIES OFTEN TAKE A SIMILAR SHAPE, BUT WITH A BASE STOCK

ADDED, TO PRODUCE THE FOLLOWING SITUATION:
4. LUMPY

ASSETS

WOULD

CAUSE

THE

SALES TO LOOK AS SHOWN BELOW.

RELATIONSHIP

BETWEEN

ASSETS

AND

THIS SITUATION IS COMMON WITH

FIXED ASSETS.

Fix ed a sset s

J.

Sa les

1. HOW COULD REGRESSION ANALYSIS BE USED TO DETECT THE PRESENCE OF THE

SITUATIONS

DESCRIBED

FORECASTS?

PLOT

ABOVE

GRAPH

OF

AND

THEN

TO

IMPROVE

THE

FOLLOWING

DATA,

THE
WHICH

FINANCIAL
IS

FOR

TYPICAL WELL-MANAGED COMPANY IN NWCS INDUSTRY TO ILLUSTRATE YOUR

ANSWER.
YEAR
1999
2000
2001
2002E

Integrated Case: 4 - 30

SALES
$1,280
1,600
2,000
2,500

INVENTORIES
$118
138
162
192

Harcourt, Inc.

ANSWER:

[SHOW S4-28 AND S4-29 HERE.]

REGRESSION ANALYSIS COULD BE USED TO

SEE IF ONE OF THE CONDITIONS INDICATED IS PRESENT. THE EASIEST THING

TO DO IS TO SIMPLY PLOT THE DATA ON A GRAPH. IF THE POINTS SEEM TO
LIE ON A LINE THAT IS LINEAR AND PASSES THROUGH THE ORIGIN, THEN IT
WOULD

BE

APPROPRIATE

TO

ASSUME

THAT

THE

ITEM

IN

QUESTION

WILL

INCREASE IN PROPORTION TO SALES. OTHERWISE, THAT ASSUMPTION WOULD

NOT APPEAR TO BE VALID. HERE IS THE PLOT FOR THE ASSUMED DATA FOR
1999-2001:
Inventories

Required for
proportional
growth

300

200
Actual regression:
Inv. = 40.0 + 0.0611 Sales

100

Sales
0

1,000

2,000

3,000

WE RAN A SIMPLE LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION, USING AN HP CALCULATOR,

AND OBTAINED THE FOLLOWING REGRESSION EQUATION:
INVENTORIES = 40.0 + 0.0611(SALES).
WE COULD USE THIS EQUATION TO FORECAST INVENTORIES AT THE PROJECTED
SALES LEVEL OF $2,500:
INVENTORIES = 40.0 + 0.0611($2,500) = $192.7.
ASSUMING THE REGRESSION EQUATION WOULD BE APPROPRIATE FOR NWC IF ITS
INVENTORIES WERE BETTER MANAGED, WE SEE THAT IT COULD OPERATE AT THE
PROJECTED SALES LEVEL WITH ONLY $192.7 OF INVENTORIES VERSUS THE $300
LEVEL

BASED

ON

THE

PROPORTIONAL

GROWTH

SALES

FORECASTING

METHOD.

THEREFORE, THE COMPANY COULD FREE UP ABOUT $107.3 AND USE THESE FUNDS
TO REDUCE DEBT AND THUS IMPROVE ITS PROFITABILITY RATIOS, ITS DEBT
RATIO, AND ITS TIE RATIO. NOTE TOO THAT IF NWC LOWERED ITS INVENTORIES

Harcourt, Inc.

Integrated Case: 4 - 31

TO $192.7 FOR SALES OF $2,500, ITS INVENTORY TURNOVER WOULD RISE FROM
8.3 TO 13.0, WHICH WOULD BE EVEN BETTER THAN THE INDUSTRY AVERAGE OF
11.

J.

2. ON THE SAME GRAPH THAT PLOTS THE ABOVE DATA, DRAW A LINE THAT SHOWS
HOW THE REGRESSION LINE WOULD HAVE TO APPEAR TO JUSTIFY THE USE OF
THE AFN FORMULA AND THE PROJECTED FINANCIAL STATEMENT FORECASTING
METHOD.

AS

PART

OF

YOUR

ANSWER,

SHOW

THE

GROWTH

RATE

IN

INVENTORIES THAT RESULTS FROM A 10 PERCENT INCREASE IN SALES FROM A

SALES LEVEL OF (A) $200 AND (B) $2,000 BASED ON BOTH THE ACTUAL
REGRESSION LINE AND A HYPOTHETICAL REGRESSION LINE, WHICH IS LINEAR
AND WHICH GOES THROUGH THE ORIGIN.
ANSWER:

THE REGRESSION LINE WOULD HAVE HAD TO BE LINEAR AND PASS THROUGH THE
ORIGIN TO JUSTIFY THE USE OF THE PROPORTIONAL GROWTH PROCEDURE, FOR
ONLY THEN WOULD THE RATIO OF INVENTORIES TO SALES REMAIN CONSTANT AT
ALL SALES LEVELS.

THAT SITUATION OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT HOLD FOR THE

DATA WE ARE USING.

IF SALES WERE TO INCREASE FROM $200 TO $220, FROM THE GRAPH
ABOVE,

YOU

COULD

SEE

THAT

THE

PROPORTIONAL

GROWTH

METHOD

WOULD

GREATLY UNDERSTATE INVENTORIES AS ESTIMATED BY THE REGRESSION LINE,

WHILE IF SALES INCREASED FROM $2,000 TO $2,200, THE PROPORTIONAL
GROWTH METHOD WOULD SLIGHTLY OVERSTATE INVENTORIES AS ESTIMATED BY
THE REGRESSION LINE.

K.

HOW WOULD CHANGES IN THESE ITEMS AFFECT THE AFN?

PAYOUT

RATIO,

(2)

THE

PROFIT

MARGIN,

(3)

THE

(1) THE DIVIDEND

CAPITAL

INTENSITY

RATIO, AND (4) IF NWC BEGINS BUYING FROM ITS SUPPLIERS ON TERMS THAT
PERMIT IT TO PAY AFTER 60 DAYS RATHER THAN AFTER 30 DAYS.

(CONSIDER

EACH ITEM SEPARATELY AND HOLD ALL OTHER THINGS CONSTANT.)

ANSWER:

[SHOW S4-30 AND S4-31 HERE.]

1. IF THE PAYOUT RATIO WERE REDUCED, THEN MORE EARNINGS WOULD BE
RETAINED, AND THIS WOULD REDUCE THE NEED FOR EXTERNAL FINANCING,
OR AFN. NOTE THAT IF THE FIRM IS PROFITABLE AND HAS ANY PAYOUT
RATIO LESS THAN 100 PERCENT, IT WILL HAVE SOME RETAINED EARNINGS,

Integrated Case: 4 - 32

Harcourt, Inc.

SO IF THE GROWTH RATE WERE ZERO, AFN WOULD BE NEGATIVE, i.e., THE
FIRM WOULD HAVE SURPLUS FUNDS.

AS THE GROWTH RATE ROSE ABOVE

ZERO, THESE SURPLUS FUNDS WOULD BE USED TO FINANCE GROWTH.

AT

SOME POINT, i.e., AT SOME GROWTH RATE, THE SURPLUS AFN WOULD BE
EXACTLY USED UP.

THIS GROWTH RATE WHERE AFN = $0 IS CALLED THE

SUSTAINABLE GROWTH RATE, AND IT IS THE MAXIMUM GROWTH RATE THAT

CAN BE FINANCED WITHOUT OUTSIDE FUNDS, HOLDING THE DEBT RATIO AND
OTHER RATIOS CONSTANT.
2. IF THE PROFIT MARGIN GOES UP, THEN BOTH TOTAL AND ADDITION TO
RETAINED EARNINGS WILL INCREASE, AND THIS WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT
OF AFN.
3. THE CAPITAL INTENSITY RATIO IS DEFINED AS THE RATIO OF REQUIRED
ASSETS TO TOTAL SALES, OR A*/S 0.

PUT ANOTHER WAY, IT REPRESENTS

THE DOLLARS OF ASSETS REQUIRED PER DOLLAR OF SALES.

THE HIGHER

THE CAPITAL INTENSITY RATIO, THE MORE NEW MONEY WILL BE REQUIRED
TO SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL DOLLAR OF SALES.

THUS, THE HIGHER THE

CAPITAL INTENSITY RATIO, THE GREATER THE AFN, OTHER THINGS HELD
CONSTANT.
4. IF

NWCS

PAYMENT

TERMS

WERE

INCREASED

FROM

30

TO

60

DAYS,

ACCOUNTS PAYABLE WOULD DOUBLE, IN TURN INCREASING CURRENT AND

TOTAL LIABILITIES.

THIS WOULD REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF AFN DUE TO A

DECREASED NEED FOR WORKING CAPITAL ON HAND TO PAY SHORT-TERM

CREDITORS, SUCH AS SUPPLIERS.

Harcourt, Inc.

Integrated Case: 4 - 33