A View from the Sideline

}
The Haves and the Have Nots
Yes, I know it’s not the 2007 Draft, but it’s the latest draft logo I had to
illustrate my point. And, that is? Well, the discrepancy between the
haves and the have nots is as distinct as it’s ever been in the NFL. It’s a
long way back for these teams, but if there’s any hope, just check out the
Broncos. The 6-0 Broncos...that’s what I meant. The NFL weekend has
a Super Bowl IX rematch and a Michael Crabtree sighting. Good stuff.

Catch Lance Zierlein from 6 to 10 am daily, the Sean and John show, with Sean Pendergast
alongside John Granato. Listen to John Harris on show 3 to 7 PM daily. www.1560thegame.com
 NFL SECTION BY LANCE ZIERLEIN WEEK 7

San Francisco (3-2) vs. Houston (3-3)

October 25, 2009 - FOX 12 PM CST
Vegas Line: HOU -3 / 44

t 2009 Ranking
2009 ATS Record 2009 ATS Record
106.2 ypg - 16th Run Offense 77.3 ypg - 30th
4-1-0 4-2-0
160.8 ypg - 28th Pass Offense 292.2 ypg - 3rd
2009 Over/Under 2009 Over/Under
2-3-0 2-4-0
22.4 ppg - 17th Scoring Offense 23.8 ppg - 12th
Last 5 Games Last 5 Games
88.6 ypg - 7th Run Defense 125.0 ypg - 24th
10/11 L, Atlanta 10-45 10/18 W, @ Cincinnati 28-17
10/4 W, St. Louis 35-0 10/11 L, @ Arizona 21-28
234.0 ypg - 20th Pass Defense 226.8 ypg - 19th
9/27 L, @ Minnesota 24-27 10/4 W, Oakland 29-6
9/20 W, Seattle 23-10 9/27 L, Jacksonville 24-31
19.6 ppg - 13th Scoring Defense 22.8 ppg - 22nd
9/13 W, @ Arizona 20-16 9/20 W, @ Tennessee 34-31
+4 - Tied 8th TO Margin +2 - 11th

Last Meeting: San Francisco - 20 vs. Houston - 17 (1/1/2006)

When the 49ers have the ball... The Niners offense is pretty simple in terms of what they want to do. They don't
want to trick you too much, they just want to hit you in the mouth with their running game and then hit a big play
here or there. With Michael Crabtree on the field, the Niners might have another big play threat or they might have
a rookie who is nowhere near ready to make a big impact on the game yet. The key isn't Crabtree anyway. The key in
this one is the return of RB Frank Gore. While Gore was out, backup RB Coffee simply wasn't able to get the
running game going and the Niners suffered because of it. I'm sure the Niners will look at beating the Texans the way
the Texans look at beating the Colts which is to run the ball, control the clock and try and hit the QB.

When the Texans have the ball...The Texans simply aren't

going to give up on the running game no matter how sub-par Fantasy Report
it is has become because they have to make people respect
the potential of the running game in order to set up the play- Michael Crabtree, Niners WR - If you picked
action passing and the middle of the field. Matt Schaub is up Crabtree this week and you are looking for
putting up MVP-caliber numbers right now, but the Texans him to do something this week, don't hold your
are going to be facing a 3-4 front that has given them tons of breath.  He's still green.
 
trouble in the past. The Texans pass protection has to be
Steve Slaton,Texans RB - More than likely you
ready because there will be a ton of different blitz looks that get more of the same with Slaton which is below
the Niners will show so the newcomers at guard will have to average rushing yards and a decent amount of
be on their assignments because if they get confused, Schaub receiving yards.
is going to get hit and hit hard. The Texans passing game will
exploit the Niners secondary if Schaub is given time. 

Conclusion: I know that the Texans haven't been very consistent at home so far but there is no doubt that their
defense is improving and the Niners are offensively challenged.  If the Texans don't fall apart on defense against the
run, this one should go the Texans way but isn't this the same thing I was saying when the Texans played the Jaguars?

Texans - 23 vs. 49ers - 17

 Atlanta (4-1) vs. Dallas (3-2)
October 25, 2009 - FOX 3:15 PM CST
Vegas Line: DAL -4 / 47.5

t 2009 Ranking
2009 ATS Record 2009 ATS Record
98.6 ypg - 24th Run Offense 161.0 ypg - 3rd
4-1-0 2-3-0
229.2 ypg - 15th Pass Offense 259.4 ypg - 9th
2009 Over/Under 2009 Over/Under
3-2-0 3-2-0
24.6 ppg - 10th Scoring Offense 24.4 ppg - 11th
Last 5 Games Last 5 Games
118.2 ypg - 23rd Run Defense 106.4 ypg - 17th
10/18 W, Chicago 21-14 10/11 W, @ KC 26-20
10/11 W, @ San Fran. 45-10 10/4 L, @ Denver 10-17
241.0 ypg - 21st Pass Defense 251.4 ypg - 26th
9/27 L, @ New Eng. 10-26 9/28 W, Carolina 21-7
9/20 W, Carolina 28-20 9/20 L, NY Giants 31-33
15.4 ppg - 4th Scoring Defense 19.6 ppg - 12th
9/13 W, Miami 19-7 9/13 W, @ Tampa Bay 34-21
+5 - 7th TO Margin -4 - 23rd

Last Meeting: Dallas - 38 vs. Atlanta - 28 (12/16/2006)

When the Falcons have the ball... The Falcons knew they had a much tougher schedule this year when it came to
rush defenses but I'm not sure they were prepared for just how much tougher it was going to this year. Michael
Turner is averaging just 3.5 ypc and the Cowboys are decent against the run so while the Falcons will try and get
Turner going, don't for one second think that the Falcons won't immediately attack the Cowboys pass defense. The
Boys are giving up over 250 yards per game and the Falcons multi-faceted attack can attack high or low and as long as
the Falcons get protection against the likes of DeMarcus Ware, they have a chance to put up some pretty strong
numbers. The Falcons offense hasn't been quite as potent as you might think, but the potential is there.

When the Cowboys have the ball... The Cowboys

offense and running game in particular have been pretty
Fantasy Report
consistent but despite averaging almost 100 yards more per
game than the Falcons, the Cowboys are averaging just 24.4 Matt Ryan, Falcons QB - The Cowboys
ppg to Atlanta's 24.6 so obviously efficiency isn't their secondary is there for the taking and with the
greatest attribute. The Falcons defense is very much a Falcons on the road and possibly playing from
"bend but don't break" entity considering that they are 4th behind, Ryan is a good option.
in the league in points allowed but 24th in total yards allowed.  
The Cowboys are going to do what they do which is run it Roy Williams, Cowboys WR - If you have a good
some and try and take some shots down the field and there option as a second QB, you can look in that
really isn't any reason to believe that they won't move it on direction, but I think Brady should be a decent
the Falcons as long as Romo keeps his head on straight. If play this week.
Dallas doesn't turn it over a ton, they are going to have
success on offense.

Conclusion: After two very good wins against the Niners and the Bears, it is time for the Falcons to crash back
down to reailty in this spot. Their defense has been bending a little too much and the Cowboys are coming off off a
bye week so this one will be tough for the Falcons to win on the road.

Cowboys - 28 vs. Falcons - 21

 NFL NEWS AND NOTES
1. Is there anyone who did a better job of coaching towel in" after just six games or who feel like they can't
in 2007 and 2008 than Jon Gruden?  In those get good enough value back in return to be able to sell it
years, Gruden's team that was lead by QB Jeff Garcia to the owner and the fans. Part of me wants to see a few
(37), previously undrafted RB Earnest Graham and WRs more trades before the deadline in the NFL and then
Joey Galloway (36) and Antonio Bryant. The Bucs there is part of me who doesn't want anything to do with
finished with a 9-7 record in both seasons thanks in part a system that allows you to sell of players like in baseball.
to a solid, veteran defense and an offense that made just  
enough plays. What got Gruden fired was that he
finished 2007 losing 3 of 4 and he finished 2008 losing 4
straight. Tampa was easily in the bottom quarter of the
league in terms of talent on the roster but Gruden did
one hell of a job there. New head coach Raheem Morris
is facing a daunting challenge with this Tampa squad as
they are in the process of going young.
 
2. Very shrewd move on the part of the Titans to
strike up contract talks with DE Kyle Vanden
Bosch right now.  KVB will be an unrestricted free
agent at the end of the year and my guess is that the
Titans think they might be able to get a good price
considering the fact that KVB has no sacks. The agent
for KVB certainly can't be negotiating from a position of
tremendous strength considering how relatively
ineffective his client has been since the departure of
Albert Haynesworth so it will be interesting to see how
much guaranteed money KVB gets if the two sides can
come to an agreement during the season.
 
3. If the NFL would push their trade deadline back
just one week they might see a moderate increase
in trades. As it stands now, there are too many teams
who simply don't want to appear to be "throwing the

FANTASY NOTES
1. The Saints split carries between Mike Bell and catches in 6 games?  However, with the Browns
Pierre Thomas and while I think Thomas is still the experimenting with their own "Wildcat" formation
primary back (or majority back), the Dolphins rush against the Steelers and with Cribbs having a
defense is no joke so Thomas is flex option while Bell is background as a QB in college, he might be worth
a sit. stashing on your roster if you have an opening.
   
2. While Kerry Collins is still the starting QB at
Tennessee for the time being, he won't be for long. At
some point, Vince Young is going to be the new
starting QB and when that happens, go ahead and
downgrade Kenny Britt if you have him on your
roster.
 
3. I know Browns WR Josh Cribbs probably isn't on
your radar these days and why would he be with only 9
 Two important factors that should lead to a winning record for Texans

While this blog and most NFL analysts focus on the play of the starters on both the offensive and defensive sides of
the ball, there are two aspects of football that coaches harp on over and over as key elements to winning and yet fans
don't spend enough time looking at them.
Those two elements are turnover ratio and special teams.

Gotta Go Get That Ball

Turnover margin has probably been the most consistent aspect of their play that they have been unable to get turned
around since the franchise got started in 2002. Here are the final giveaway/takeaway numbers in each season and the
subsequent record.

Year +/- Record

2002 -8 4-12
2003 -5 5-11
2004 +5 7-9
2005 -7 2-14
2006 -5 6-10
2007 -13 8-8
2008 -10 8-8
2009 +2 3-3

The Texans 2004 record of 7-9 was a bit of an aberration as we found out thanks to their follow-up 2-14 season in 2005.
One of the reasons they were able to approach the .500 mark in 2004 despite have lesser talent was their positive
turnover ratio. 2004 is the only season in franchise history that the team has finished with a positive turnover ratio
(although they are currently positive this season).

Return Them and Cover Them

The best special teams units generally have very good depth at WR, RB, safety and LB and they have some big guys on
the lines who can run a little bit on punt coverage and kickoff returns. The Texans roster was devoid of quality depth
at those positions for several years, but as better players and overall depth was added to the roster we began to see an
improvement in the return and coverage teams which is critical in the battle for field position.

Here is how the Texans have ranked since 2002 in kick and punt coverage as well as kick and punt returns (rankings
only take into account 16 AFC teams).

Year KCover PCover KR PR

2002 13th 1st 13th 7th
2003 13th 8th 9th 15th
2004 12th 10th 10th 11th
2005 5th 3rd 2nd 11th
2006 12th 8th 11th 4th
2007 11th 5th 2nd 12th
2008 6th 13th 11th 3rd
2009 1st 3rd 3rd 4th

As you can see, the special teams are doing a bang-up job so far and not surprisingly, this Texans roster is as deep as
they've ever been. If the Texans can continue to play well on special teams while taking the ball away more than giving
it away, they should end up with their first winning record in team history.
TEXAS (6-0) VS. MISSOURI (4-2) VEGAS SAYS: TEXAS -13 / 50.5
October 24, 2009 ABC 7:00 PM CST
Nothing has come easy for the Texas Longhorns this Missouri, on the other hand, has hit a road block with
season. Now, many of us expected Texas to be its offense as well. In losses to Nebraska and on the
undefeated at this point in the season, but we also road at Oklahoma State, the Tigers have averaged a
expected the offense to be clicking. A well oiled paltry 14.5 points per game. And, much of that has
machine piling up 45 point outings with ease. Well, uh, come with QB Blaine Gabbert struggling.
it hasn’t quite
been the case. Expect the
Texas Players to Watch Quite frankly, Texas defense Missouri Players to Watch
QB #12 Colt McCoy the team’s to follow the QB #11 Blaine Gabbert
WR #8 Jordan Shipley most valuable WR #81 Danario Alexander
CB #4 Aaron Williams script that both LB #12 Sean Weatherspoon
entity might be NU and OSU
DE #2 Sergio Kindle DE #85 Aldon Smith
defensive followed: take
coordinator away the short
Will throws - the bubble and tunnel screens and make
Muschamp, who has the Horns playing the best Gabbert beat you downfield. The Texas defense is
defensive football since, well, I can’t remember when. capable of doing that on the first drive of the game.
Sure, OU is a shell of itself offensively, but the Horns The Mizzou run game isn’t much, so if Gabbert’s ‘easy’
knocked out Sam Bradford, held the running game to quick throws are taken away, Mizzou will go quietly.
-16 yards and created five turnovers.

PREDICTION: TEXAS - 31 VS. MISSOURI - 17

Now, the Texas offense has to answer the bell this week against Sean Weatherspoon and company.
But, the run game was improved with Fozzy Whittaker finding some seams in the OU ‘D’. His
quickness is a huge key this weekend and another solid 85 to 90 yard rushing day should be enough.

OKLAHOMA (3-3) VS. KANSAS (5-1) VEGAS SAYS: OU -7.5 / 54.5

October 24, 2009 ABC 2:30 PM CST
This season hasn’t gone quite the way Bob Stoops and But, the one major difference in this game is the fact
his Sooners imagined. Three losses by a combined five that Kansas has Todd Reesing and OU has a guy
points would drive anyone mad, but consider the fact growing into the position and not quite there yet. The
that the Sooners have lost these games playing without key for the OU defense is to not let Reesing continue
last year’s Heisman Trophy winner and All-American to create one play after the other. If the Sooner rush
tight end. four at him, the
Would Sam back seven has
OU Players to Watch Bradford and to stay alive Kansas Players to Watch
QB #12 Landry Jones Jermaine when he starts QB #5 Todd Reesing
RB #29 Chris Brown Gresham be to scramble. If WR #10 Kerry Meier
DT #93 Gerald McCoy WR #80 Dezmon Briscoe
CB #2 Brian Jackson worth more the Sooners RB #1 Jake Sharp
than five send heat,
points? I which is what I
would say yes, would do, they’ve
but then again, with this offensive line, who knows. got to beat him up and make him throw the ball
immediately. Get the ball out of his hands and force
Kansas hasn’t been playing with as short a deck as the him into throws he doesn’t want to make. The
Sooners, but a loss at Colorado may have exposed KU. Jayhawks will respond with screens, but at least it
lessens the impact #5 can have on this game.

PREDICTION: OKLAHOMA - 28 VS. KANSAS - 27

KU is going to move the football. One could argue that this is the best, and most explosive, offense
that OU has faced and that the OU defense is the unit truly under the gun. But, KU’s ‘O’ won’t be
enough. Jones will be solid against an average KU ‘D’ in a much needed tough Big 12 OU win.
 1560 The Game is a
proud sponsor of both
the Rotary Lombardi
Award, given annually
to the most
outstanding interior lineman in the
nation, and the Paul Bear Bryant Award
given for the Coach of the Year. Here is
my “unofficial leaderboard” for each
award. For more info. on each award -
www.rotarylombardiaward.org and
www.americanheart.org/bryantawards

The 12 semi-finalists were named last week, so it’s time to narrow the scope and follow these finalists this
week. Here are some thoughts about key matchups to watch this weekend.

1. Tennessee travels to Alabama and must find a way to block #62 Terrence Cody, the Tide’s dominant
nose tackle. The Vols found a passing game the past couple of weeks, but their bread and butter is running
the football. That means finding a way to stop Cody from getting involved in the play. But, Cody has seen
double and even triple teams before. Furthermore, if the Vols spend so much energy getting Cody blocked,
Rolando McClain could have a huge game at inside linebacker.

2. TCU’s Jerry Hughes has probably his biggest test to date in the Horned Frogs massive MWC matchup
in Provo with BYU. The BYU line isn’t one of the best lines in the nation, but QB Max Hall makes life tough
on defensive linemen with his quick release. If Hughes can consistently get to him, then he’ll get some pub.

After seven weeks, some coaches are truly starting to emerge as realistic candidates to win the Bear Bryant
Award for 2009. Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz has to be in everyone’s top three with what he’s done with the 7-0
Hawkeyes. Ranked sixth currently in the BCS, many thought that Iowa would be in the top three of the Big
Ten and near the bottom of the top 25, but this team has exceeded expectations in a big way, culminating in
last week’s 20-10 win over Wisconsin in Madison. Cincinnati’s Brian Kelly continues to take that program
to another level with a solid win over USF last Thursday night. Even with star QB Tony Pike going out of the
game against a fast and furious USF defense, the Bearcats dominated the second half in a key Big East win on
the road. Texas’ Mack Brown, Alabama’s Nick Saban and Florida’s Urban Meyer will be in the mix
also with undefeated seasons. Now, two guys who probably won’t get much recognition (which is why I’m
mentioning him now) are Temple’s Al Golden and Idaho’s Robb Akey. Those two programs have been
consistently in the bottom five in the nation for who knows how many seasons. But, Golden has Temple at
4-2 and 3-0 in the MAC, while Akey has the Vandals at 6-1, undefeated as well in the WAC.