Jan 12, 2015
Weekly Mutual Fund and Debt Report
RETAIL RESEARCH
Equity Markets
Benchmark equity indices gained 2% in the last two sessions but did little to reduce deep losses
encountered earlier this week, leading Indian equities to post their biggest weekly loss in almost a month.
The Sensex lost almost 1.6% or 430 points from last weeks close to end at 27,458. The Nifty declined
1.3% or 111 points to settle at 8,285. The fall was in sync with the weak sentiment in global equities
arising out of multi-year fall in crude oil prices and speculation of Greeces exit from the euro zone.
Broader markets were better performers in relation to benchmark indices. The mid cap and small cap
indices each ended the week with nearly 1%-fall. Shares of metals, banking, capital goods, and power
companies featured among the top losers this week.
Outlook for the current weeks
Trend in global markets, Q3 results of India Inc, domestic and global macro economic data, investment by
foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement
will dictate the trend on the bourses in the forthcoming week.
The Q3 December 2014 earnings season has just begun. Companies who would be announcing their
results next week include IndusInd Bank, Yes Bank, Bajaj Auto, TCS, Axis Bank and Wipro.
Weekly Statistics
Global Index
09-Jan
02-Jan
Change (%)
Sensex
27458
27888
-1.54
Nifty
8285
8395
-1.31
DJIA
17737
17833
-0.54
Nasdaq
4704
4727
-0.49
FTSE
6501
6548
-0.72
-1.19
DAX
9649
9765
Hang Seng
23920
23858
0.26
Nikkei
17198
17451
-1.45
Bovespa
48840
48512
0.68
Indonesia Jakarta
5217
5243
-0.50
Singapore Strait
3338
3371
-0.98
MSCI Emerging Mkt
961
954
0.73
Mutual Fund Categories watch
1 Week
Absolute
1 Month
Absolute
3 Month
Absolute
Arbitrage Funds
0.20
0.83
2.10
3.90
8.44
8.91
Balanced - Equity
-0.67
1.13
7.00
14.25
41.85
22.97
Equity - Banking
-1.89
2.82
17.69
22.57
67.38
29.73
Equity - Div Yield
-0.69
1.89
9.58
17.78
53.60
24.15
Equity - Infras
-1.59
1.48
8.78
11.51
63.53
20.60
Equity - Large Cap
-0.94
0.94
7.84
15.28
45.88
23.82
Equity - Mid Cap
-0.65
3.39
12.24
24.55
73.92
36.28
Equity - Multi CAP
-0.86
1.63
9.00
17.93
53.24
26.51
Equity - Small Cap
-0.39
4.63
14.77
34.54
95.69
39.22
Equity - FMCG
-0.72
-2.21
7.99
19.16
32.89
26.58
Equity - Infotech
0.19
3.45
5.68
18.86
25.20
25.53
Equity - Pharma
0.17
1.06
7.90
28.21
47.87
34.26
ELSS
-0.88
1.59
8.79
17.40
51.21
26.75
Gold ETFs
0.72
1.28
0.44
-4.64
-2.58
-1.99
Gilt Funds
0.27
0.58
6.10
8.54
14.47
9.27
Income Funds
0.22
0.45
4.42
6.56
12.03
9.24
Liquid Funds
0.15
0.67
2.01
4.09
8.48
8.71
MIP
0.01
0.67
4.59
7.73
16.98
11.30
Short Term Income
0.16
0.53
2.80
4.95
10.04
9.16
Category Name
On the macro front, industrial production growth is expected to remain muted in November 2014 and
consumer price inflation is likely to accelerate in December 2014. Industrial production is seen rising 1.6%
in November 2014, as per the median estimate of a poll of economists carried out by Capital Market.
Other key data to be announced next week include IIP, CPI and WPI.
Global Markets
A turbulent week of trading ended on Friday with U.S. stocks finishing lower for the third time in five
days. The decline followed two days of big gains and nudged major indexes lower for the year. Investors
also were discouraged by weak U.S. wage growth in December, despite another strong increase in hiring.
In global markets, the trend remained weak with most major Asian and EM indices ending down 0.5-2%
from the close of previous week. Singapore posted weekly loss of 1%. For the week, Nikkei dropped 1.5%
while gained 1.6%. Strait Times dropped by ~1% this week.
G sec Markets
Indian bond markets saw the yields inching down during the week ended Jan 09, 2015. The G sec market
opened the week on Monday on back of fall in global crude oil prices and lower US treasury yields.
However, the intraday gains were whipped off due to profit booking at some higher side.
6 Month
Absolute
1 Year
CAGR
3 Year
CAGR
Note: Trailing Returns up to 1 year are absolute and over 1 year are CAGR. NAV/index values are as on Jan 09, 2015.
RETAIL RESEARCH
Prices of the government securities ended lower on Tuesday tracking the rupees weakness against the
US dollar. Risk aversion due to developments in the Euro zone area also dampened the bond prices.
However, fall in global crude oil prices and US treasury yields supported the market.
10 Year G sec Benchmark move:
G sec prices rose on Wednesday on the expectation of softening consumer inflation figures for December
in the wake of the sharp decline in global crude oil prices.
Prices of the G sec closed lower on Thursday due to profit sales and cautiousness ahead of the weekly
bond sale.
Prices of government securities ended higher on Friday on the expectation of softening consumer
inflation figures for December.. The appreciation on rupees rise against the US dollar also supported
bonds.
Hence, the yields of the 10-year benchmark 8.40% 2024 bond ended down by 3 bps to 7.84% (Rs 103.68)
on Friday against the last week close of 7.87%.
Outlook for the week
Weekly Statistics
We feel that the new 10-year G Sec yields could trade in the 7.70% - 8.10% band for the week.
T Bill Auctions
The T-Bill auctions held last week were fully subscribed in the 91 days T-Bill. The cut-off for 91-Days T-Bill
was set at Rs 97.95, implying a yield of 8.39% (previous week yield 8.35%). The 364-Days T-Bill auctions
were fully subscribed. The cut-off for 364-Days T-Bill was set at Rs 92.46, implying a yield of 8.18%.
Liquidity, Call & CBLO
The liquidity in the banking system tightened last week compared to the previous week. The net infusion
from the LAF window was a daily average of Rs. 12,028 crore for last week (Rs. 18,414 crore in previous
week).
The inter-bank call rates traded around 8.00% levels on Friday. The CBLO rates were positioned at 7.96%
level.
Corporate Debts
The 1 year bond ended at 8.45% compared to the previous week close of 8.48%.
The 10-year AAA bond traded at 8.5% compared to the previous week close 8.54%.
RETAIL RESEARCH
Debt Securities Benchmarks watch
Debt (%)
09-Jan
02-Jan
Change (bps)
Call Rate
8.00
7.85
15
CBLO
7.96
7.86
10
Repo
8.00
8.00
Reverse Repo
7.00
7.00
10 Year G sec
7.84
7.87
-3
LIBOR UK
0.56
0.56
LIBOR USA
0.25
0.26
-1
LIBOR Europe
0.05
0.06
-1
Currency
The USD appreciated against the Euro by 1.34% for week ended 9th January 2015.
The dollar depreciated against the yen by 1.59% for the week.
The USD appreciated against the Pound by 1.12%.
Gold & Crude oil
AAA Corporate Bond Spread over Gsec:
Security
AAA Corporate Bond Spread over Gsec
09-Jan
02-Jan
1 Year
3 Year
5 Year
10 Year
16
40
42
50
32
38
40
53
Date of Auction
Value (Rs. Crs)
14-Jan-15
14-Jan-15
8,000
6,000
Forthcoming Auctions;
Security
International crude oil prices (WTI) fell by 8.22% for the week ended 9th January 2015 to close at USD
48.36 per barrel.
91 Day T-Bill
182 Day T-Bill
International gold prices rose by 2.52% for the week ended 9th January 2015 to close at USD 1216.10 per
troy ounce.
Certificates of Deposits:
Gilt Securities Yields Movements in last 4 weeks
Maturity
09-Jan
02-Jan
3 Months
6 Months
1 Year
8.51
8.55
8.60
8.50
8.55
8.63
Commercial Papers:
Maturity
09-Jan
02-Jan
3 Months
6 Months
1 Year
9.00
9.05
9.15
8.52
9.05
9.10
Commodity Update:
RETAIL RESEARCH
Commodity
09-Jan
02-Jan
Change (%)
NYMEX Crude Oil ($/bbl)
Gold (oz/$)
48.36
1,216.1
52.69
1,186.2
-8.22%
+2.52%
Scheme Analysis
RETAIL RESEARCH
ICICI Pru Top 100
Key Points
Unit Growth of investments Vs. Benchmark
ICICI Pru Top 100 is one of the best performing schemes from Large-cap category. Despite the scheme
showing poor performance in the initial periods and in the recent periods, it generated better risk
adjusted returns in the long run thanks to the skillful management.
The scheme registered +40%, +25% and +14% of compounded returns for one, three and five year periods
while the benchmark Nifty posted +34%, +20% and +10% of returns respectively. For the same period, the
category clocked +45%, +24% and +11% of CAGR returns respectively.
Investing maximum of assets in large-cap stocks helped the scheme primarily to withstand the
corrections witnessed in the equity market in the recent past. These blue-chip stocks are relatively stable
and have the capability to grow the corpus in long-run.
The portfolio has been churned aggressively in the last six months periods as it added 18 new stocks and
exited from 13 stocks.
The turnover ratio of the scheme as per the latest data was about 123%.
Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd, HDFC Bank and INFY are the stocks that topped in its latest portfolio
having weights of 9.91%, 8.23% and 8.00% to its net assets respectively.
Fund Performance Vis-a-vis Benchmark (Excess return):
The expense ratio of 2.52% for the scheme is lower than the category average of 2.62%.
Rating agencies like Value research & Crisil assigned 4 star and CPR 1 respectively for the scheme.
These reflect very good performance of the scheme in generating high risk adjusted returns.
The scheme is managed jointly by Mr. Sankaran Naren and Mr.Mittul Kalawadia. The corpus of the
scheme as per latest data was at Rs. 1,459 crore.
As far as risk measures are concerned, the scheme has done well in terms of Sharpe and Jensons Alpha. It
registered Sharpe of 0.15% (0.13% for category) and Alpha of 0.03% (0.02%).
It seems to be less risky while compared to peers as it generated 0.83% (category 0.87%) of Standard
Deviation over the last one-year.
RETAIL RESEARCH
(Rebased to 100)
Mutual Fund ready reckoner:
Equity - Diversified - Large CAP
5 Year
Return Since
Return
Inception
Scheme Name
NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
3 Year
Return
Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity - Plan A (G)
146.74
6867
40.11
22.58
14.46
24.73
HDFC Equity Fund - (G)
445.69
16239
59.79
21.86
15.65
21.12
ICICI Pru Focused Bluechip Equity Fund (G)
27.24
7478
38.56
20.66
16.17
16.90
Scheme Name
NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
3 Year
Return
Birla Sun Life Pure Value Fund (G)
34.30
294
96.56
29.31
20.31
20.62
ICICI Pru Dynamic Plan (G)
179.04
5243
42.23
22.30
16.35
27.22
Reliance Equity Opportunities Fund (G)
67.21
8859
64.07
25.73
21.10
22.01
Scheme Name
NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
IDFC Premier Equity Fund - Plan A (G)
61.47
6204
60.14
ICICI Pru Value Discovery Fund (G)
99.93
6760
78.96
AXIS Midcap Fund (G)
22.12
710
77.81
Scheme Name
NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
3 Year
Return
AXIS Long Term Equity Fund (G)
25.98
2512
64.96
28.72
21.92
ICICI Pru Tax Plan - (G)
251.80
2270
57.72
24.68
18.06
23.67
Scheme Name
NAV
Fund Size
1 Year
Hybrid - Equity Oriented (Atleast 60% in equity)
3 Year
5 Year
Return Since
RETAIL RESEARCH
Top holdings
ICICI Bank, L&T, HDFC Bank, ITC and
Infy
SBI, ICICI Bank, Infy, L&T
Aurobindo Pharma
HDFC Bank Ltd, Infosys Ltd, ICICI Bank
Ltd, ITC Ltd, Maruti Suzuki India
Equity - Diversified - Multi CAP
5 Year
Return Since
Return
Inception
Top holdings
HCL Tech, J Kumar Infra, Federal
Bank, ICICI Bank & Omkar Speciality
Chem
Power Grid Corp, ICICI, HDFC Bank,
Bharti Airtel & SBI
HDFC Bank, Divi's Lab, SBI, Trent
Bharat Forge
Equity - Diversified - Mid n Small CAP
3 Year
5 Year
Return Since
Top holdings
Return
Return
Inception
Page Ind, Kaveri Seed Company, VA
23.97
20.70
22.16
Tech Wabag, Blue Dart Express, Bata
India.
ICICI Bank, RIL, Sadbhav Engineering,
31.97
22.02
25.35
PI Ind & Amara Raja Bat
CMC, ING, Federal Bank, DB Corp,
31.11
24.10
Mphasis
Equity - Tax Planning
5 Year
Return Since
Return
Inception
Top holdings
HDFC Bank Ltd, TCS, L&T, HDFC Ltd,
ITC Ltd
HDFC, RIL, ICICI Bank, Infy
& Cipla
Top holdings
Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
Risk
Grade
CPR 2
4 Star
Average
CPR 3
3 Star
High
High
CPR 3
5 Star
Low
High
Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
Risk
Grade
Return
Grade
CPR 3
3 Star
Average
Above
Average
CPR 2
5 Star
CPR 1
3 Star
Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
Risk
Grade
Return
Grade
CPR 2
3 Star
Below
Average
Average
CPR 2
5 Star
Low
CPR 3
4 Star
Average
Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
Risk
Grade
Return
Grade
CPR 1
5 Star
Low
High
CPR 2
5 Star
Below
Average
High
Crisil
Value Research
Risk
Return
Below
Average
Below
Average
Return
Grade
Above
Average
High
Average
Above
Average
Above
Average
(Rs)
(Crs. Rs)
Return
Return
Return
Inception
HDFC Balanced Fund (G)
96.80
2298
51.47
20.76
18.36
17.44
ICICI Pru Balanced Fund - (G)
84.32
1102
44.78
22.84
17.40
15.30
Scheme Name
NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
3 Year
Return
5 Year
Return
Return Since
Inception
Reliance Monthly Income Plan (G)
30.77
2228
19.72
12.15
9.78
10.94
HDFC Monthly Income Plan - LTP (G)
32.56
3558
23.21
12.11
10.01
11.52
SBI, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Aurobindo
Pharma & L&T
HDFC Bank, Motherson Sumi, City
Union Bank, Maruti Suzuki Ind & ICICI
Bank
Rank
Rating
Grade
Below
Average
Grade
CPR 2
5 Star
CPR 1
5 Star
Below
Average
Above
Average
Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
Risk
Grade
Above
Average
Return
Grade
Above
Average
CPR 3
4 Star
CPR 2
3 Star
Average
Average
Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
CPR 2
4 Star
CPR 2
5 Star
Risk
Grade
Below
Average
Below
Average
Return
Grade
Above
Average
Above
Average
Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
CPR 1
4 Star
Risk
Grade
Below
Average
Return
Grade
Above
Average
CPR 2
5 Star
Low
Average
Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
Risk
Grade
CPR 3
4 Star
Average
Return
Grade
Above
Average
CPR 4
4 Star
Average
High
Crisil
Rank
CPR 3
Value Research
Rating
4 Star
Risk
Grade
Low
Return
Grade
Above
High
Hybrid - Monthly Income Plan - Long Term (About 15% to 20% in equity)
Top holdings
Eq: Sundaram-Clayton, Federal Mogul
Goetze, HDFC Bank. CP: PFC
Eq: SBI, Infy, ICICI Bank, L&T. Debt:
TATA Power, Hindalco Inds
Liquid Funds
Scheme Name
NAV (Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
2 Year
Return
3 Year
Return
Return Since
Inception
HDFC Liquid Fund (G)
26.60
15300
9.25
9.18
9.32
7.22
SBI Magnum InstaCash - Cash Plan
2980.68
2087
9.16
9.14
9.25
7.31
Scheme Name
NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
2 Year
Return
ICICI Pru Flexible Income Plan - Regular (G)
253.13
11450
9.63
9.53
9.61
7.46
SBI Magnum Income FRP - Savings Plus Bond
(G)
20.92
877
9.11
9.10
9.41
7.45
Scheme Name
NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
2 Year
Return
Sundaram Select Debt - STAP (G)
23.13
599
9.37
9.78
10.05
7.15
Franklin india Low Duration Fund (G)
14.73
2394
10.08
9.70
9.91
9.55
NAV
(Rs)
16.20
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
3375
1 Year
Return
11.25
2 Year
Return
10.59
3 Year
Return
10.84
Ultra Short Term Funds
3 Year
Return Since
Return
Inception
Short Term Income Funds
3 Year
Return Since
Return
Inception
Top Holdings
CP: National Bank Agr. Rur. Devp, CD:
National Bank Agr. Rur, Union Bank.
CP: M&M Financial Services, Kotak
Mahindra Prime, PFC, CD: SIDBI 2014
Top Holdings
CD: NABARD, Canara Bk, T Bill, CP:
HDFC, Debt: TCFSL
CD: HDFC, ICICI, IDBI. Debt: LIC Hou,
HDFC. CP: Sesa ste
Top Holdings
FD: J&K Bank, D: 11.6% DHFL. 2015,
CD: Central Bank of India 2013,
Debenture: M&M Financial Serv, Tata
Capital Fin, JSW Energy, CD: SBB
Income Funds
Scheme Name
Birla Sun Life Medium Term Plan (G)
RETAIL RESEARCH
Return Since
Inception
9.03
Top Holdings
Debenture: DLF, Tata Mot, IL&FS
ICICI Pru Long Term Plan - Retail (G)
29.34
92
15.04
11.68
11.00
8.94
Scheme Name
NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
2 Year
Return
3 Year
Return
Tata Gilt Mid Term Fund (G)
14.21
60
11.28
10.21
11.18
8.46
L&T Gilt Fund (G)
31.66
68
10.02
10.31
11.49
8.23
Gilt Funds
Return Since
Inception
Transport, RHC Holdings
Bonds: EXIM Bk, 8.28% GOI 9-21, 8.4%
GOI 7-28 & Cash
Top Holdings
SDL: 8.94% Maharashtra, GOI: 8.28%
GOI 9-21
8.83% GOI 2023, 9.2% GOI 2030,
7.28% GOI 2019, 8.24% GOI 2027
Average
-
5 Star
Low
High
Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
Risk
Grade
Return
Grade
CPR 2
5 Star
Low
High
CPR 1
5 Star
Low
High
Notes:
NAV value as on Dec 12, 2014. Portfolio data as on Nov 2014.
Returns are trailing and annualized (CAGR).
The notations '5 Star & CPR 1' (used by VR & Crisil respectively) are considered as top in respective rating and ranking scales.
The performance of the funds are rated and classified by Value Research in the following ways. Top 10% funds in each category were classified ***** funds, the next 22.5% got a **** star,
while the middle 35% got a ***, while the next 22.5% and bottom 10% got ** and * respectively.
The criteria used in computing the CRISIL Composite Performance Rank are Superior Return Score, based on NAVs over the Quarter Ended Sep 14, Based on percentile of number of schemes
considered in the category, the schemes are ranked as follows: CPR 1- Very Good performance, CPR 2 - Good performance, CPR 3 - Average performance, CPR 4 - Below average and CPR 5 Relatively weak performance in the category.
Schemes shortlisted based on the corpus and age. Final picks arrived from return score (respective weightage given for rolling returns for 1m, 3m, 6m, 1yr, 2yr & 3yr) and risk score. Schemes
from Quantum, Mirae and JM Mutual Funds have not been considered.
NFO:
Scheme name
Equity
SBI Long Term Advantage Fund - Series II (G)
Sundaram Long Term Tax Advantage Fund-Sr.I (G)
SBI Long Term Advantage Fund - Series I (G)
Birla Sun Life Manufacturing Equity Fund (G)
Reliance Capital Builder Fund II - Sr.B (G)
Sundaram Top 100 - Series IV (G)
Motilal Oswal Most Focused Long Term Fund (G)
Balanced
ICICI Pru Capital Protection Oriented VII-F Reg(G)
BOI AXA CPO Fund - Series 3 (G)
ICICI Pru Capital Protection Oriented VII-E Reg(G)
AXIS Hybrid Fund - Series 18 (G)
Fixed Maturity Plans
Tata Dual Advantage Fund - Sr.2 - Scheme C (G)
RETAIL RESEARCH
Tenure
Open Date
Close Date
Minimum Investments
10 Years
10 Years
10 Years
12/22/2014
12/18/2014
11/1/2014
1/13/2015
1/9/2015
12/18/2014
12/26/2014
3/23/2015
3/20/2015
1/31/2015
1/27/2015
1/23/2015
1/16/2015
1/15/2015
500
500
500
5000
5000
5000
500
1288 Days
41 Months
1284 Days
42 Months
1/8/2015
1/7/2015
1/1/2015
12/29/2014
1/22/2015
1/21/2015
1/15/2015
1/12/2015
5000
5000
5000
5000
1099 Days
1/16/2015
1/30/2015
5000
3 Years
3 Years
DSP BR Dual Advantage Fund - Sr.34 - 36Mth (G)
DWS Hybrid FTF - Series 33 (G)
ICICI Pru FMP - Series 76 - 1100Days Plan G-Reg(G)
UTI-FTI - Series XXI - II(1100Days)-Reg (G)
Reliance Fixed Horizon - XXVIII - Sr.4 (G)
ICICI Pru FMP - Series 76 - 1103Days Plan F-Reg(G)
HDFC FMP - 1115Days-Jan 2015(1)(XXXII) (G)
Ultra Short Term Funds
Baroda Pioneer Credit Opport Fund-PlanA (G)
36 Months
1100 Days
1100 Days
1100 Days
1103 Days
1103 Days
1115 Days
Mutual Fund NEWS:
Sahara Mutual Fund Announces Change In Key Personnel: Sahara Mutual Fund has announced that
Meenakshi Narvekar has been appointed as the Equity Dealer of the schemes of Sahara AMC, with effect
from 08 January 2015.
Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund Announces Change In Fund Management Responsibilities: Birla Sun Life
Mutual Fund has announced change in the fund management responsibilities, with effect from 01 January
2015. Accordingly, Birla Sun Life Midcap Fund will be managed by Jayesh Gandhi; Birla Sun Life Emerging
Leaders Fund Series 2 will be managed by Mahesh Patil; Birla Sun Life Focused Equity Fund Series 3
and Birla Sun Life Focused Equity Fund Series 4 will be managed by Anil Shah.
RETAIL RESEARCH
1/15/2015
1/13/2015
1/13/2015
1/2/2015
1/12/2015
1/7/2015
1/1/2015
1/28/2015
1/27/2015
1/21/2015
1/15/2015
1/15/2015
1/15/2015
1/13/2015
5000
5000
5000
5000
5000
5000
5000
1/8/2015
1/21/2015
5000
Dividend
Scheme Name
DSP BR Natural Resources & New
Energy Fund (D)
Baroda Pioneer Infrastructure - A (D)
Tata Balanced Fund - Plan A (Div-M)
Religare Invesco Tax Plan (D)
Kotak Tax Saver (D)
L&T Equity Fund (D)
L&T India Prudence Fund (D)
UTI-Dividend Yield Fund (D)
Birla Sun Life Dividend Yield Plus (D)
Principal Growth Fund - (Div-H)
Principal Large Cap Fund (Div-H)
Principal Balanced Fund - (Div-H)
Principal SMART Equity Fund (Div-H)
Principal Dividend Yield Fund (Div-H)
Principal Emerging Bluechip (Div-H)
Union KBC Tax Saver Scheme (D)
Record Date
1/9/2015
Gross (%)
15.50
Date
1/12/2015
1/9/2015
1/5/2015
12/31/2014
12/30/2014
12/29/2014
12/29/2014
12/29/2014
12/29/2014
12/29/2014
12/29/2014
12/29/2014
12/29/2014
12/29/2014
12/29/2014
1/12/2015
9.00
3.00
21.00
1.00
20.00
1.10
8.00
5.00
48.80
35.70
23.20
12.90
32.00
55.00
15.00
1/12/2015
1/6/2015
1/2/2015
12/31/2014
12/30/2014
12/30/2014
12/30/2014
12/30/2014
12/30/2014
12/30/2014
12/30/2014
12/30/2014
12/30/2014
12/30/2014
1/13/2015
Global Updates:
(Source: AMC Newsletters)
India:
Indias foreign exchange (forex) reserves fell by $471.4 mn to $319.23 bn in the week ended January 2.
SEBI allows MFs belonging to the same group as merchant bankers of an IPO to play role of an anchor investor.
According to India Ratings, infrastructure companies are likely to target bond offers following the successful issue of corporate bonds by public sector infrastructure companies.
According to a CRISIL report, India Incs revenue growth in the third quarter ended December 2014 will fall to 7% annually due to slow pace of investment, subdued growth in export-oriented
sectors and soft commodity prices.
Finance ministry plans to use the Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSE) ETF to further dilute the governments holding in constituent state-owned companies.
Indias Services PMI stood at 51.1 points in December, compared with 52.6 a month earlier.
Government assures public sector banks that it will infuse capital before the end of the current financial year; also has no plans to dilute its stake in public lenders at current valuations.
SEBI releases discussion paper that proposes a ban on public issue of equity, debt and non convertible redeemable preference shares by entities listed as wilful defaulters by the central bank.
Asia:
Japans all industry activity index fell 0.1% month-on-month in October, compared with a revised 1.4% gain in September.
Japans leading Index fell to 104.5 in October, compared with 106.2 in September, while coincident index rose by 0.6 points to 109.9 in October.
Chinas flash HSBC/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.5 in December from a final reading of 50 in November.
Russias central bank hiked the countrys benchmark interest rate to 17% from 10.5% citing rising devaluation and inflation risks.
US non-farm payrolls increased by 252,000 in December, down from 321,000 in November; unemployment rate dropped to 5.6% from 5.8% a month earlier.
US Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in November, compared with 0.6% gain in October.
US consumer credit rose $14.1 bn in November, compared with a revised $16 bn gain in October.
US Federal Reserves meeting minutes show that officials do not believe that they will raise the benchmark short-term federal funds interest rate before April.
According to ADP, US private sector payrolls added 241,000 workers in December, compared to an upwardly revised 227,000 the month before.
US trade deficit narrowed to a 11 month low of $39 bn in November, compared to Octobers downwardly revised deficit of $42.2 bn.
US ISM non-manufacturing index hit 56.2 in December versus Novembers index figure of 59.3.
US factory orders dropped 0.7% in November after an unrevised 0.7% fall in October.
UKs visible trade gap fell to 8.8 bn pounds in November from 9.8 bn pounds in October.
UK National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) estimated that GDP growth eased to 0.6% for the period October-December, down from 0.7% in the three months to
September.
US:
UK:
Euro Zone:
Euro zone producer prices dropped 1.6% on year in November, faster than the 1.3% decrease in October.
Euro zone retail sales rose 0.6% in November, the same pace of growth as in October.
RETAIL RESEARCH
Economic Calendar:
Date
Country
Event
Period
Frequency
Unit
Previous
9/1/2015
12/1/2015
12/1/2015
12/1/2015
12/1/2015
13-01-2015
13-01-2015
13-01-2015
13-01-2015
13-01-2015
14-01-2015
14-01-2015
14-01-2015
14-01-2015
14-01-2015
14-01-2015
14-01-2015
14-01-2015
14-01-2015
14-01-2015
14-01-2015
14-01-2015
14-01-2015
15-01-2015
15-01-2015
15-01-2015
15-01-2015
15-01-2015
16-01-2015
16-01-2015
16-01-2015
16-01-2015
16-01-2015
16-01-2015
16-01-2015
16-01-2015
16-01-2015
17-01-2015
India
India
India
India
India
UK
UK
US
US
US
US
India
India
India
India
India
India
European Monetary Union
US
US
US
US
US
Japan
European Monetary Union
US
US
US
US
US
Japan
India
India
India
European Monetary Union
US
India
US
Automobile sales data (y/y chg)
GSM mobile subscriber
CPI Inflation - Combined (YoY Chg)
IIP (YoY Chg)
OECD composite leading indicator for India
CPI (Month over Month)
Producer Price Index (Input-M/M)
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (level)
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
Redbook
Treasury Budget (Treasury Budget - Level)
91 day T- Bills auction of Rs 80 bln (cut-off yld)
Reserve Money (change on year)
WPI Inflation (YoY Chg) New Series (Base 2004-05)
Foreign merchandise trade Exports (YoY Chg)
Foreign merchandise trade Imports (YoY Chg)
182 day T-Bills auction of Rs 60 bln (cut-off yld)
Industrial Production (Year over Year)
MBA Purchase Applications
Retail Sales (Retail Sales - M/M change)
Import and Export Prices
Business Inventories
EIA Petroleum Status Report
Machine Orders (M/M Change)
Merchandise Trade (Level)
Jobless Claims
Empire State Mfg Survey
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
Fed Balance Sheet
Money Supply
Tertiary Index
Output of Crude oil
Output of Refinery
Output of Natural gas
HICP (Month over Month)
Consumer Price Index
FX reserve (change on wk)
Treasury International Capital
Dec
Dec
Dec
Nov
Nov
Dec, 2014
Dec, 2014
Dec, 2014
wk1/10, 2015
wk1/10, 2015
Dec, 2014
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Weekly
Weekly
Monthly
Weekly
Weekly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Fortnightly
Yearly
Weekly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Weekly
Monthly
Monthly
Weekly
Monthly
Weekly
Weekly
Weekly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Weekly
Monthly
pct
Million
pct
pct
5.03
670.25
4.38
-4.2
99.6
-0.3
-1
98.1
RETAIL RESEARCH
Wk to Jan 9
Dec
Dec
Dec
Nov, 2014
wk1/10, 2014
Dec, 2014
Dec, 2014
Nov, 2014
wk1/9, 2015
Nov, 2014
wk1/10, 2015
Jan, 2015
wk1/11, 2015
wk1/14, 2015
wk1/5, 2015
Nov, 2014
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec, 2014
Dec, 2014
Wk to Jan 9
Nov, 2014
Percent
Percent
Billion
pct
pct
pct
pct
pct
pct
Percent
-56.8
7.27
26.79
8.36
0.7
Percent
Percent
Percent
0.7
-1.5
0.2
Percent
Billion
-6.4
19.4
-3.58
mln tn
mln tn
bln cu m
Percent
Percent
$ mln
Billion
3.14
19.21
2.81
-0.2
0.1
-1.4
Economy Updates
US Dollar Vs Indian Rupee
The US dollar depreciated against the rupee by 1.52% for the week ended 9th January
2015. Notching up gains for the third successive session, Indian rupee surged 35 paise to
end at four-week high of 62.32 against the greenback on persistent selling by
participants and on continued optimism of inflows. Weakness in the dollar in overseas
markets also boosted the rupee value.
WPI Inflation (YoY)
The WPI inflation for November 2014 came in at 0% YoY, the lowest since July 2009. The
fall in the inflation was attributed by base effect coupled with the actual fall in food and
fuel sub indices. The biggest contribution to current month's downtick was made by
decline in global crude oil prices and the resultant softening in domestic fuel costs.
However, the RBI is unlikely to cut in the near term.
RETAIL RESEARCH
Relationship among policy rates and benchmarks:
In its Fifth Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy Statement for 2014-15, the RBI kept the policy
rates unchanged. Further, the central bank signaled the change in policy stance in the
early next year if the inflation continues to decline and fiscal developments are
encouraging. It is worth noting that the WPI inflation for the month of Nov 2014 came in
at 0% YoY, the lowest since July 2009.
Deposit vs. Advance Growth (YoY)%
YoY, growth in outstanding credit declined slightly to 10.3 per cent as on 26th December
2014 from 10.9 per cent a fortnight ago. Outstanding credit of scheduled commercial
banks (SCBs) increased by Rs.432.22 billion to Rs.63.46 trillion during the fortnight ended
26th December 2014. Outstanding deposits of SCBs increased by Rs.432.02 billion to
Rs.83.36 trillion during the fortnight ended. On a y-o-y basis, Growth in outstanding
deposits accelerated to 11.1 per cent as on 26th December 2014.
Money Stock (M3) (YoY) (%)
Corporate Bonds Spread Vs Gilt Securities:
Money supply (M3) rose by Rs.339.6 billion to Rs.102.50 trillion during the fortnight
ended 26 December 2014. This was the third consecutive fortnight of an increase in
money supply. On a y-o-y basis, growth in money supply accelerated to 11.1 per cent
from 10.24 per cent a fortnight ago.
Corporate bond yields fell last week. However, the one year AAA credit spreads fell by
16 basis points while 10 year spread fell by 3 basis points.
Foreign Exchange Reserves (mn of USD)
Indias foreign exchange (forex) reserves fell by $471.4 mn to $319.23 bn in the week
ended January 2.
RETAIL RESEARCH
Liquidity support from RBI (Bn. Rs)
The liquidity in the banking system tightened last week compared to the previous week.
The net infusion from the LAF window was a daily average of Rs. 12,028 crore for last
week (Rs. 18,414 crore in previous week). The inter-bank call rates traded around 8.00%
levels on Friday. The CBLO rates were positioned at 7.96% level
MFs net investment in Debt (Rs Crs):
Certificates of Deposit (%):
In November, MF have bought worth Rs. 39,985 crore while in December, the MF have
bought debt worth Rs. 54,654 crore. So far in Jan, they have bought debt worth Rs.
12,211 crore.
CD rates are trending lower in the recent periods. The CD rates hovered around 8.6%
levels (as per the latest data) (one year CD).
FIIs net investment in Debt (Rs Crs):
Commercial Paper (%):
In November, FII have bought worth Rs. 11,403 crore while in December, they have
bought debt worth Rs. 11,156 crore. So far in Jan, they have bought debt worth Rs. 2,557
crore.
Rates of Commercial papers are seen trading lower in the recent periods. The CP rates are
hovering around 9.15% levels (one year maturity CP).
Analyst: Dhuraivel Gunasekaran (dhuraivel.gunasekaran@hdfcsec.com)
RETAIL RESEARCH Tel: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Corporate Office
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email:
hdfcsecretailresearch@hdfcsec.com
Disclaimer: Mutual Funds and Debt investments are subject to risk. Past performance is no guarantee for future performance This document has been prepared by HDFC Securities Limited and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. This document is not to be
reported or copied or made available to others. It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. The information contained herein is from sources believed reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied
upon as such. We may have from time to time positions or options on, and buy and sell securities referred to herein. We may from time to time solicit from, or perform investment banking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this document. This report is intended for nonInstitutional Clients
This report has been prepared by the Retail Research team of HDFC Securities Ltd. The views, opinions, estimates, ratings, target price, entry prices and/or other parameters mentioned in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with those of the other Research teams
(Institutional, PCG) of HDFC Securities Ltd.
RETAIL RESEARCH
