Google Valuation Presentation
Google Valuation Presentation
Project Google
Sample Valuation
Confidential Project Google
Table of Contents
I. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW………………………………………………… 3
IV. APPENDIX……………………………………………………………….. 18
Sample Valuation
Project Google
Sample Valuation 3
Industry Overview Project Google
The worldwide internet search reached over 131 billion queries in December 2009. This statistic
represents: (1)
4 billion searches per day
175 million searches per hour
2.9 million searches per minute
The U.S. had the largest share of the global individual search market with 22.7 billion searches
conducted by people age 15 or older. (2)
25,000 Top 10 Countries by Number of Searches Conducted
22%
Global Searches (MM)
20,000
15,000 13%
December-08
10,000 48%
December-09
35%
38% 61%
5,000 44% 53% 28% 92%
0
United China Japan United Germany France South Brazil Canada Russian
States Kingdom Korea Federation
Sample Valuation 1) Source: “comScore Reports Global Search Market Growth of 46 percent in 2009.” (January 22, 2010) 4
2) Source: “comScore Reports Global Search Market Growth of 46 percent in 2009.” (January 22, 2010)
Industry Overview Project Google
Sample Valuation 5
Project Google
Sample Valuation 6
Company Overview Project Google
700 %
600 %
500 %
400 %
Google
300 % Nasdaq
200 %
100 %
0%
Google NASDAQ
Sample Valuation 1)
2)
Based on company filings.
Based on closing prices as of January 25, 2010.
7
Company Overview Project Google
$700 12,000
$650
$600 10,000
Volume in Thousands
$550
$500
$450 8,000
$400
$350 6,000
$300
$250 4,000
$200
$150
$100 2,000 Volume
$50 Share Price
$0 0
Price Volume
26 Oct 09
16 Sep 09 On2 Technologies Announced Proposed
$700 Google Acquires Carnegie Settlement in Litigation. -Reuters
03 May 09 Mellon Spin-Off
$650 ReCapture Inc. - Reuters
12 Feb 09 Apple and
$600 Google Ties are
$550 Google Investigated. -
Exits Radio NYT
$500 Advertising 06 Dec 09
Business. - 13 Jan 2010
$450 Google Buys Online
Reuters 09 Nov 09 Rejecting
$400 Word Processing
Startup AppJet.- Censorship, Google
05 Aug 09 Google Signs Agreement Threatens To Quit
$350 To Acquire AdMob. - Reuters
China. -Reuters
$300 Google to acquire On2 Reuters
03 Apr 09 technologies.-Reuters
$250 26 Mar 09 23 Nov 09
Google Could Be in
$200 Talks To Buy Google To Buy Display
Google Cut 200
Twitter. - Reuters. Advertising Startup
$150 Jobs From
Sales Force. - Teracent. -DJ
$100 Reuters
$50
$0
Sample Valuation 10
Financial Overview Project Google
COMPARABLE
PUBLIC $170.89 $1081.61 212.2% - (50.0%) 7.2x – 34.7x 9.5x – 60.1x
COMPANIES (1)
DISCOUNTED $ 553.59 $781.66 Median: $659.9 (3.6%) - (31.7%) 18.8x – 25.6x 30.8x – 43.5x
CASH FLOW
(3)
PREMIUMS PAID $540.46 $1348. 58 (1.3%) - (60.0%) 18.4x – 42.7x 30.1x – 75.0x
ANALYSIS
(4)
52-WEEK RANGE $290.89 $626.76 (83.4%) - (14.9%) 10.8x – 21.0x 16.2x – 34.9x
(5)
ANALYST PRICE
TARGETS $600.00 $635.00 (11.1%) - (16.0%) 20.2x – 21.2x 33.4x – 35.3x
(5)
$200.00 $700.00 $1,200.00 $1,700.00
1) Based on selected comparable companies for the “Internet Software & Services” sector.
2) Selected transactions are based on data provided by techcrunch.com and company press-releases.
3) Reflects WACC of 12.1% and exit multiple of 14.5x.
4) Source: Techcrunch.com. Includes transactions greater than $1 billion from 2007 to date.
5) Based on closing prices as of January 25, 2010.
Sample Valuation 6) Based on selected Wall Street analysts„ equity reports on October 16, 2009. 11
Financial Overview Project Google
($ in millions, except per share data )
Multiples Analysis
Share
Price % of 52- Market Enterprise EV/Revenue EV/EBITDA
Company Name Ticker 1/11/2010 Week High Capitalization Value Cash Debt LTM FYE +1 FYE +2 LTM FYE +1 FYE +2
Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN $120.4 17.5% $52,915.0 $49,030.0 $4,001.0 $116.0 2.3x 2.1x 1.6x 30.9x 27.5x 19.2x
eBay Inc. EBAY $23.7 8.2% $30,630.3 $27,671.0 $3,159.3 $200.0 3.3x 3.2x 3.0x 9.2x 9.0x 8.0x
Yahoo Inc. YHOO $15.9 12.0% $22,220.8 $17,801.3 $4,503.1 $83.6 3.7x 3.8x 3.6x 10.3x 10.5x 10.0x
Microsoft Corp. MSFT $29.3 7.0% $260,494.6 $260,494.6 $36,728.0 $5,996.0 4.1x 3.8x 3.5x 9.8x 9.5x 8.6x
Maximum $120.4 17.5% $260,494.6 $260,494.6 $36,728.0 $5,996.0 4.1x 3.8x 3.6x 30.9x 27.5x 19.2x
75th Percentile $52.1 13.4% $104,809.9 $101,896.1 $12,559.3 $1,649.0 3.8x 3.8x 3.5x 15.5x 14.7x 12.3x
Median $26.5 10.1% $41,772.6 $38,350.5 $4,252.0 $158.0 3.5x 3.5x 3.3x 10.1x 10.0x 9.3x
Mean $47.3 11.2% $91,565.1 $88,749.2 $12,097.8 $1,598.9 3.3x 3.2x 2.9x 15.0x 14.1x 11.5x
25th Percentile $21.7 7.9% $28,527.9 $25,203.5 $3,790.6 $107.9 3.0x 2.9x 2.7x 9.6x 9.4x 8.5x
Minimum $15.9 7.0% $22,220.8 $17,801.3 $3,159.3 $83.6 2.3x 2.1x 1.6x 9.2x 9.0x 8.0x
Google Inc. GOOG $533.5 14.9% $170,879.4 $148,885.0 $21,994.4 $0.0 8.9x 8.3x 7.2x 14.2x 14.0x 11.8x
Margins Analysis
Revenue Growth (CAGR) EBITDA Growth (CAGR) EBIT Growth (CAGR) LTM CapEx EBIT Margin EBITDA Margin
Company Name FYE '06-08 FYE '08-10 FYE '06-08 FYE '08-10 FYE '06-08 FYE '08-10 % Revenue LTM FYE +1 FYE +2 LTM FYE +1 FYE +2
Amazon.com, Inc. 33.8% 26.7% 42.1% 34.7% 51.0% 25.7% 2.0% 5.7% 4.6% 5.7% 7.3% 7.5% 8.3%
eBay Inc. 19.6% 3.2% 18.3% 3.8% 19.3% 8.2% 6.6% 26.3% 29.6% 31.9% 35.9% 35.4% 37.9%
Yahoo Inc. 8.8% (4.9%) (2.5%) (0.9%) (13.5%) (20.8%) 9.5% 20.1% 8.8% 13.2% 35.9% 36.6% 36.5%
Microsoft Corp. 6.9% 6.3% 7.9% 3.3% 5.9% 3.0% 4.9% 37.1% 35.4% 36.0% 41.8% 39.8% 40.4%
Maximum 33.8% 26.7% 42.1% 34.7% 51.0% 25.7% 9.5% 37.1% 35.4% 36.0% 41.8% 39.8% 40.4%
75th Percentile 23.2% 11.4% 24.3% 11.5% 27.2% 12.6% 7.3% 29.0% 31.0% 32.9% 37.4% 37.4% 38.5%
Median 14.2% 4.7% 13.1% 3.5% 12.6% 5.6% 5.8% 23.2% 19.2% 22.5% 35.9% 36.0% 37.2%
Mean 17.3% 7.8% 16.5% 10.2% 15.7% 4.0% 5.8% 22.3% 19.6% 21.7% 30.2% 29.8% 30.7%
25th Percentile 8.3% 1.2% 5.3% 2.3% 1.0% (2.9%) 4.2% 16.5% 7.7% 11.3% 28.7% 28.4% 29.4%
Minimum 6.9% (4.9%) (2.5%) (0.9%) (13.5%) (20.8%) 2.0% 5.7% 4.6% 5.7% 7.3% 7.5% 8.3%
Google Inc. 47.4% 13.9% 49.0% 16.1% 46.9% 12.3% 5.7% 53.5% 46.1% 48.1% 62.7% 59.4% 61.3%
Sample Valuation 1) Based on selected comparable companies for the “Internet Software & Services” sector. 12
Financial Overview Project Google
($ in millions)
Precedent Transactions
Announce Target LTM Transaction EV/Revenue EV/EBITDA
Date Acquiror Target Target description Revenue EBITDA Value LTM FYE+1 LTM FYE+1
04/29/07 (1) Yahoo Inc. Right Media Right Media, Inc. is an online advertising company that $70.0 $18.0 $850.0 12.1x N/A 47.2x N/A
operates the Right Media Exchange (RMX), a marketplace
that enables advertisers, publishers, and ad networks to
trade digital media.
05/18/07 (2) Microsoft Corp. aQuantive Inc., aQuantive is a digital marketing company with three $492.6 $129.5 $6,376.9 12.3x 9.9x 46.7x 39.3x
distinct business segments: digital marketing services;
digital marketing technologies; and digital performance
media.
04/13/07 (3) Google Inc. DoubleClick DoubleClick is a provider of digital marketing technology $232.0 $72.0 $3,100.0 13.4x 10.4x 46.7x 31.6x
and services with a focus on ad serving, media, video,
search and affiliate marketing.
05/17/07 (4) WPP Group 24/7 Real Media 24/7 Real Media provides multi-platform internet marketing $215.0 $20.8 $668.6 2.8x 2.2x 29.0x 22.3x
strategies including behavioral targeting, ad serving and
Web advertising.
03/15/07 (5) CISCO Systems WebEX Com. Inc. WebEx Communications Inc. provides on-demand $380.0 $124.1 $3,090.5 7.2x 6.0x 22.1x 18.6x
collaboration, online meeting, web conferencing and video
conferencing applications.
05/15/08 (6) CBS Corp. CNET Networks CNET is an interactive media company providing tech $408.2 $73.3 $1,794.3 4.3x 4.0x 23.8x 20.1x
product reviews, news and price comparisons, free
software downloads, daily videos, and podcasts.
10/23/09 (7) Adobe Systems Omniture, Inc. Omniture is a provider of online business optimization $335.5 $68.8 $1,771.0 4.9x 3.6x 24.1x 11.2x
products and services including integrated set of
optimization applications for online analytics, channel
analytics, visitor acquisition and conversion.
Maximum $492.6 $129.5 $6,376.9 13.4x 10.4x 47.2x 39.3x
75% Percentile $394.1 $98.7 $3,095.3 12.2x 8.9x 46.7x 29.3x
Median $335.5 $72.0 $1,794.3 7.2x 5.0x 29.0x 21.2x
Mean $304.8 $72.4 $2,521.6 8.1x 6.0x 34.2x 23.9x
25th Percentile $223.5 $44.8 $1,310.5 4.6x 3.7x 23.9x 19.0x
Minimum $70.0 $18.0 $668.6 2.8x 2.2x 22.1x 11.2x
1) Source: “Yahoo to buy rest of Right Media for $680mln.” (Reuters, 04/30/2007)
Note: Includes 20% stake (~$200MM) Yahoo! acquired in October, 2006.
2) Source: “Microsoft to Acquire aQuantive, Inc.” (Microsoft, 05/18/2007)
3) Source : “Google to Acquire DoubleClick.” (Google, 04/13/2007)
4) Source :”WPP has agreed to acquire 24/7 Real Media for $11.75 per share.” (WPP, 05/17/2007)
5) Source: “CISCO Announces Agreement to Acquire WebEx.”(CISCO, 03/15/2007)
6) Source: “CBS to buy CNET Networks.” (05/15/2008)
Sample Valuation 7) Source : “Adobe to Acquire Omniture.” (Adobe, 10/23/2009) 13
Financial Overview Project Google
($ in millions, except per share data)
Sample Valuation 14
Financial Overview Project Google
($ in millions)
WACC Analysis
Google Inc. GOOG $0.0 $0.0 $170,879.4 $170,879.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Equity
Levered Unlevered Risk Cost of Cost of Cost of
Ticker Beta Beta Premium Equity Debt Preferred WACC
Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN 1.25 1.25 7.0% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.1%
eBay Inc. EBAY 1.92 1.91 7.0% 17.8% 0.5% 0.0% 17.7%
Yahoo Inc. YHOO 0.76 0.76 7.0% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7%
Microsoft Corp. MSFT 0.96 0.95 7.0% 11.1% 2.4% 0.0% 10.9%
Median 1.11 1.10 7.0% 12.1% 0.2% 0.0% 12.0%
Mean 1.22 1.22 7.0% 12.9% 0.7% 0.0% 12.8%
Google Inc. GOOG 1.10 1.10 7.0% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1%
Jefferies & Co. 10/16/2009 Youssef H. Squali Buy $600.00 $23.02 - $26.54
Sample Valuation Source: Thomson Reuters One Banker and analysts‟ equity research reports on October 16, 2009. 17
Project Google
APPENDIX
Sample Valuation 18
Appendix Project Google
($ in millions, except per share data)
Net revenue (Exc.TAC): $7,296.1 $11,660.1 $15,856.6 $17,879.5 $20,561.4 $23,350.2 $26,275.8 $29,326.9
Other cost of revenue: $916.2 $1,715.2 $2,682.5 $2,826.3 $2,976.0 $3,124.3 $3,258.5 $3,380.1
Research & development: $1,601.3 $2,120.0 $2,793.2 $3,071.7 $3,521.8 $3,920.0 $4,441.2 $4,942.4
Sales & marketing: $849.5 $1,461.3 $1,946.2 $2,071.5 $2,324.2 $2,692.3 $2,949.7 $3,358.1
General & sales: $751.8 $1,279.3 $1,802.6 $1,663.7 $1,850.5 $2,143.6 $2,326.2 $2,648.2
Total operating Expenses: $4,118.8 $6,575.7 $9,224.6 $9,633.2 $10,672.6 $11,880.2 $12,975.6 $14,328.9
Operating Income: $3,177.3 $5,084.4 $6,632.0 $8,246.3 $9,888.8 $11,470.0 $13,300.2 $14,998.1
4% 11% 11% 9% 10%
EBITDA: $4,207.3 $6,920.7 $9,251.7 $10,622.0 $12,601.3 $14,429.4 $16,541.8 $18,540.1
EBITDA margin: 57.7% 59.4% 58.3% 59.4% 61.3% 61.8% 63.0% 63.2%
EBITDA growth: N/A 64.5% 33.7% 14.8% 18.6% 14.5% 14.6% 12.1%
Interest & other, net: $461.0 $589.6 $316.4 $537.7 $667.4 $827.0 $1,015.9 $1,231.3
Impairment of equity investments: (1) $0.0 $0.0 ($1,094.8) $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Pre-tax income: $3,638.3 $5,674.0 $5,853.6 $8,784.0 $10,556.1 $12,297.1 $14,316.0 $16,229.3
Income tax provision $933.6 $1,470.3 $1,626.7 $3,074.4 $3,694.7 $4,304.0 $5,010.6 $5,680.3
Effective Income tax: 25.7% 25.9% 27.8% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0%
Net Income: $2,704.8 $4,203.7 $4,226.9 $5,709.6 $6,861.5 $7,993.1 $9,305.4 $10,549.1
Net income margin: 37.1% 36.1% 26.7% 31.9% 33.4% 34.2% 35.4% 36.0%
Net income growth: N/A 55.4% 0.6% 35.1% 20.2% 16.5% 16.4% 13.4%
Weighted average diluted shares outstanding: 309.5 316.2 317.5 317.5 317.5 317.5 317.5 317.5
Diluted EPS (GAAP): $8.74 $13.29 $13.31 $17.98 $21.61 $25.17 $29.31 $33.22
Sample Valuation 1)
2)
Impairment of equity investments in AOL and Clearwire.
Per 2008 10K - SBC was estimated to be ~ $1.0 billion in 2009 and ~$1.4 billion thereafter.
19
Appendix Project Google
Search/Paid click revenue: $7,173.9 $11,396.8 $14,919.6 $16,553.3 $18,829.8 $21,275.0 $23,814.5 $26,422.4
% of advertising revenue: 99.9% 99.3% 98.2% 97.3% 96.2% 95.4% 94.5% 93.6%
Display/YouTube revenue: $10.0 $82.0 $270.0 $459.0 $734.4 $1,028.2 $1,388.0 $1,804.4
% of advertising revenue: 0.1% 0.7% 1.8% 2.7% 3.8% 4.6% 5.5% 6.4%
Total advertising revenue: $7,183.9 $11,478.8 $15,189.6 $17,012.3 $19,564.2 $22,303.1 $25,202.5 $28,226.9
% of net revenue: 98.5% 98.4% 95.8% 95.2% 95.2% 95.5% 95.9% 96.2%
Licensing & other revenue: $112.3 $181.3 $667.0 $867.1 $997.2 $1,047.1 $1,073.3 $1,100.1
% of net revenue: 1.5% 1.6% 4.2% 4.8% 4.8% 4.5% 4.1% 3.8%
Net Revenue: $7,296.1 $11,660.1 $15,856.6 $17,879.5 $20,561.4 $23,350.2 $26,275.8 $29,326.9
Growth: n/a 59.8% 36.0% 12.8% 15.0% 13.6% 12.5% 11.6%
Cost of revenue: $916.2 $1,715.2 $2,682.5 $2,826.3 $2,976.0 $3,124.3 $3,258.5 $3,380.1
% of total revenue 12.6% 14.7% 16.9% 15.8% 14.5% 13.4% 12.4% 11.5%
Research and development: $1,228.6 $2,120.0 $2,793.2 $3,071.7 $3,521.8 $3,920.0 $4,441.2 $4,942.4
% of total revenue 16.8% 18.2% 17.6% 17.2% 17.1% 16.8% 16.9% 16.9%
Sales and marketing: $849.5 $1,461.3 $1,946.2 $2,071.5 $2,324.2 $2,692.3 $2,949.7 $3,358.1
% of total revenue 11.6% 12.5% 12.3% 11.6% 11.3% 11.5% 11.2% 11.5%
General and administrative: $751.8 $1,279.3 $1,802.6 $1,663.7 $1,850.5 $2,143.6 $2,326.2 $2,648.2
% of total revenue 10.3% 11.0% 11.4% 9.3% 9.0% 9.2% 8.9% 9.0%
Total operating expenses: $3,746.1 $6,575.7 $9,224.6 $9,633.2 $10,672.6 $11,880.2 $12,975.6 $14,328.9
% net revenue: 51.3% 56.4% 58.2% 53.9% 51.9% 50.9% 49.4% 48.9%
Sample Valuation 20