POLICY BRIEF

Would a universal basic

income reduce poverty?
By Noah Zon

August 2016

POLICY BRIEF

Would a universal basic

income reduce poverty?
On basic income, we need to start with the basics
In some ways, the diverse support for basic income guarantees defies
fundamental laws of political gravity. The idea that we should simply
guarantee every person some minimum amount of money to meet their
needs has vocal supporters from across the political spectrum; it seems
to be the rare common ground for people who almost never agree on
anything. This potential for unlikely alliances is turning heads and making
universal basic income a surprisingly popular global topic. Canada is in
the heart of this emerging international conversation with the Ontario
government in the midst of developing a basic income pilot program1 and
Quebec exploring its options.2
As a policy idea, a universal basic income is not new. The idea was popular
in the 1960s and 70s, backed by figures ranging from Martin Luther
King Jr.3 to Richard Nixon.4 Canada famously ran a pilot project called
MINCOME in Manitoba in the 1970s, and there were also a handful
of other small, similar experiments in the U.S. during this period. After
a long stretch waiting in the wings, the idea of a universal basic income
has returned to centre stage. However, the shared enthusiasm can be
misleading. When you scratch the surface, you find very quickly that people
are talking about very different things with different merits.
At one end of the spectrum, some envision a transformation of our current
social safety net, replacing core components (such as social housing) by
giving people cash transfers instead.5 At the other end of the spectrum,

Benzie, Robert. Wynne touts basic-income pilot project to help poor. 17 March 2016. Toronto Star.
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/03/17/wynne-touts-basic-income-pilot-project-to-help-poor.html

Couillard, Philippe. Allocution du premier ministre du Qubec, Philippe Couillard, loccasion de la crmonie
de prestation de serment de membres du Conseil des ministers. 28 January 2016. Government of Quebec. http://
www.premier-ministre.gouv.qc.ca/actualites/allocutions/details.asp?idAllocutions=906

Caffin, Brenton and Johar, Indy. Basic income: a solution to which challenge? 6 May 2016. Nesta.
http://www.nesta.org.uk/blog/basic-income-solution-which-challenge

Dwyer, Paula. A Basic Income Should be the Next Big Thing. 2 May 2016. Bloomberg View.
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-05-02/a-basic-income-should-be-the-next-big-thing

A Libertarian Case for Basic Income (radio segment). 20 March 2016. The 180 with Jim Brown on CBC
Radio. http://www.cbc.ca/radio/the180/a-sovereigntist-defends-english-a-case-for-guaranteed-minimum-incomeand-more-alberta-road-trip-1.3496597/a-libertarian-case-for-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-1.3496657

Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?

some are positioning basic income as an opportunity to significantly

augment the current safety net with new investment.6 So before we can talk
about whether basic income is the right solution, we need to start with the
basics what exactly are we are talking about?
Thats a conversation worth having. There are some powerful goals behind
the case for basic income including:
Guaranteeing a minimum income that allows people to
maintain a decent standard of living regardless of their
circumstances;7
Strengthening our social safety net by addressing its gaps
and weaknesses; and
Making sure that as our economy changes and creates
new opportunities, those who are displaced do not get left
behind.
These goals are important, but they are not unique to basic income.
We have a number of policies and programs in place at all levels of
government today that are designed to ensure a decent standard of living
and opportunity for all including guaranteed incomes for children and for
seniors. Some make important contributions in bringing us closer to those
goals, others underperform.
This policy brief looks to make sense of the competing visions of basic
income, what proposed solutions are on the table, how much they would
cost and how those proposals differ from what we have today. To look at
the merits of universal basic income, we need to clarify which problems
we are trying to solve, and ask not only whether a universal basic income
would bring us closer to these goals, but whether it would be the best way
to get there.

Hughes, Chris. The Case for Cash for All. 17 May 2016. Medium. https://medium.com/@chrishughes/thecase-for-cash-for-all-612db8ab7e94#.sspidi8j1

See the work of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation on Minimum Income Standards. https://www.jrf.org.uk/
income-benefits/minimum-income-standards

Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?

What is basic income, anyway?

It depends who you ask. Basic income is an idea that has many names
(including universal basic income, basic income guarantee, guaranteed
annual income or guaranteed minimum income) and many definitions. The
common theme of each of these definitions involves having the government
transfer money to individuals or households without strings attached about
how it is used or how people spend their time. The basic idea is that rather
than the current suite of sometimes complex programs with different rules
to get support if you need it (e.g., social assistance, subsidized housing,
rebates for energy costs), the government would simply provide regular
cash transfers to people, letting them direct that money towards their
needs. Beyond that general idea, there are some fundamental differences
between different proposals for a basic income.8
The simplest version of the idea is to give unconditional cash transfers
to every person (or at least, every adult) in the province or country.
Every person would receive the same amount regardless of their income,
employment status, or need. This could be as simple as $10,000 in the
hands of every Canadian. While this is a very simplistic approach, this
universal idea is the most commonly raised in popular discussions, and is
being floated by a range of proponents.9 The amount of this benefit varies
between proposals but is usually fairly modest sometimes set at the
poverty line, often well below.
For example, in the state of Alaska, residents get an annual dividend
payment from their states oil and gas revenues, generally in the range
of C$1,000-2,000 per person.10 The Finnish government is currently
considering a pilot that would provide 550 per month (about C$810) to
working age adults at first, increasing to 800 per month (about C$1,180)
to replace many social services. 11 To put that in perspective, that would
bring a person without any additional income up to about 80 per cent of
the Finnish poverty line.

Flowers, Andrew. What Would Happen If We Just Gave People Money? 25 April 2016. FiveThirtyEight.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/universal-basic-income/

See for example: Andressen, Erin. To end poverty, give everyone in Canada $20,000 a year. But are you willing
to trust the poor? 19 November 2010. The Globe and Mail. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/
to-end-poverty-guarantee-everyone-in-canada-20000-a-year-but-are-you-willing-to-trust-the-poor/article560885/;
Painter, Anthony. In Support of a Universal Basic Income Introducing the RSA Basic Income Model. 16
December 2015. The RSA. https://www.thersa.org/discover/publications-and-articles/rsa-blogs/2015/12/in-support-of-a-universal-basic-income--introducing-the-rsa-basic-income-model

10

McFarland, Allen. Alaska residents are paid a unique yearly dividend from the states permanent fund. 1 May
2015. Energy Information Administration. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=21052

11

Bershidsky, Leonid. Finns May Get Paid For Being Finns. 3 November 2015. Bloomberg View.
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2015-11-03/finns-may-get-paid-for-being-finns

Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?

The other main type of basic income the one that was the subject of a few
experiments in the 1960s and 1970s is intended to top up a persons
income.12 This is sometimes called a negative income tax, and works like
refundable tax credits such as the GST/HST credit, where people with very
low income can essentially receive a tax refund higher than the taxes they
owe, leaving them overall with a boost to their incomes. Under this kind of
basic income, as other income grows, the basic income guarantee is phased
out until the top-up reaches zero, and people start to pay taxes on their
income.
As basic income guarantees capture the publics and policymakers
attention, the distinction between these approaches has remained blurry.
So have some important questions such as whether these guarantees would
cover the needs of seniors and children as well as adults, and even whether
a basic income is intended to replace or complement existing programs.
To have a productive conversation about which (if any) version of basic
income offers promise, we need to be clear about what is being proposed.

12

Segal, Hugh. Scrapping Welfare: The case for guaranteeing all Canadians an income above the poverty line.
December 2012. Literary Review of Canada. http://reviewcanada.ca/magazine/2012/12/scrapping-welfare/

Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?

How do basic income proposals differ from what we

have today?
Many proposals around basic income treat it as something unfamiliar.
For example, Voxs Ezra Klein called it the kind of radical policy that
asks whether we actually need to live in this world, or whether there are
better worlds on offer.13 This isnt true. We have a long experience with
guaranteed incomes or very similar policies all over the world, and in
particular here in Canada.14
In Canada today we have two sets of programs that look quite a bit like
guaranteed incomes for those who we expect to be outside the workforce
seniors and children.
The Old Age Security (OAS) program for seniors has been around in
basically the same form for nearly a century, providing a guaranteed
income to seniors regardless of their work history. The OAS currently
provides $6,880 per year for those receiving the maximum amount.

Guaranteed annual incomes for single seniors in Ontario

$30,000
Guaranteed Income Supplement

Total Income

$25,000
$20,000

Old Age Security

$15,000

Ontario Guaranteed Annual Income

System (GAINS) supplement

$10,000

Private Income

$5,000

$24
$1,128
$2,160
$2,904
$3,632
$4,368
$5,112
$5,840
$6,576
$7,320
$8,048
$8,976
$10,080
$11,184
$12,288
$13,392
$14,496
$15,600
$16,704

$-

Private Income

If you dont have much income from other sources like pensions (Canada
Pension Plan [CPP] or private), work or investments, then you can get more
from the federal government (the Guaranteed Income Supplement [GIS],
currently worth up to $10,277 per year) and from provinces. In Ontario,

13

Klein, Ezra. A universal basic income only makes sense if Americans change how they think about work. 1
June 2016. Vox. http://www.vox.com/2016/6/1/11827024/universal-basic-income

14

Battle, Ken. Guaranteed income or Guaranteed Incomes? September 2015. Caledon Institute of Social Policy.
http://www.caledoninst.org/Publications/PDF/1078ENG.pdf

Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?

this combines for a guaranteed annual income of about $18,200 for single
seniors and about $14,100 per person for couples.15 These programs have
both residency requirements and clawbacks on support as other income
increases, but this looks pretty close to the archetype of a basic income
guarantee, combining the universal grant with an income top-up system for
those with very low incomes.

Guaranteed annual income for married seniors in Ontario (per person)

$35,000
$30,000

Total Income

$25,000
Guaranteed Income Supplement

$20,000

Ontario Guaranteed Annual Income

System (GAINS) supplement

$15,000

Old Age Security

$10,000

Private Income

$-

$48
$864
$1,680
$2,496
$3,312
$4,096
$4,656
$5,184
$5,728
$6,288
$6,816
$7,360
$8,016
$8,832
$9,648
$10,464
$11,280
$12,096
$12,912
$13,728
$14,544
$15,360
$16,176
$16,992
$17,808
$18,624
$19,440
$20,256
$21,072
$21,888
$22,704

$5,000

Private Income

Canada also provides guaranteed incomes in the form of child benefits.

Like Old Age Security, these benefits go back nearly a century to mothers
allowances.16 For the last decade, our basic income guarantee for children
included a combination of a universal grant with a top-up for those with
low incomes. The Universal Child Care Benefit provided $1,200 per year
for each child in Canada under age six, and the National Child Benefit
Supplement (along with provincial child benefits) provided targeted topups for low-income families. The largest program was the income-tested
basic Child Tax Benefit, which served 9 in 10 families. As of July 2016, we
have shifted to a different design of a basic income guarantee with the new
Canada Child Benefit, which rolls different benefits and credits together
into a single, larger basic income guarantee that delivers its largest benefit
to lower-income families and phases out gradually as income increases.

15

Government of Ontario. Guaranteed Annual Income System benefit rates. Update July 1, 2016. https://www.
ontario.ca/data/guaranteed-annual-income-system-benefit-rates?_ga=1.261991181.1480671194.1463682162

16

Battle, Ken. Child Benefits in Canada: Politics versus Policy. June 2015. Renewing Canadas Social Architecture. http://social-architecture.ca/wp-content/uploads/ChildBenefitsInCanada.pdf

Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?

Guaranteed annual incomes for families with children

(Canada Child Benefit plus Ontario Child Benefit)
$18,000
$16,000

Total Benefits

$14,000
$12,000
$10,000

1 child under 6

$8,000

2 children under 6
1 child under 6, 1 child over 6

$6,000

2 children over 6

$4,000

1 child over 6

$0

$0
$6,000
$12,000
$18,000
$24,000
$30,000
$36,000
$42,000
$48,000
$54,000
$60,000
$66,000
$72,000
$78,000
$84,000
$90,000
$96,000
$102,000
$108,000
$114,000
$120,000
$126,000
$132,000
$138,000
$144,000
$150,000
$156,000
$162,000
$168,000
$174,000
$180,000
$186,000
$192,000
$198,000
$204,000

$2,000

Family Income (adjusted net income)

The new Canada Child Benefit guarantees a minimum income for all but
wealthy families with children though that minimum depends on the size
of the family and age of the children. For a family with two children under
6 in Ontario, they are guaranteed a minimum income of at least $15,512
(when combined with the Ontario Child Benefit). The new program is
designed so that families will not end up worse off by losing benefits as they
earn other income, which reduces the risk of perverse welfare wall effects
that can end up punishing people for taking steps to improve their lives
(like working more).
We also see the idea of a guaranteed minimum income in the tax system,
though in a smaller way. One way that this concept is applied is through
the basic personal amount the idea that a certain amount of income
should not be taxable because we should not take away from a minimum
level of income needed to purchase necessities. In 2015, that amount
shielded from tax was $11,327 federally and $9,863 in Ontario provincial
income tax. Thats worth a combined $2,200 annually in tax saved for any
Ontarian with at least that much income.
This is a basic income structured as a non-refundable tax credit meaning
you can only use it to deduct from taxes owing. Ironically, for a guaranteed
minimum income policy, this means that someone with no taxable income
gets no financial support from the basic personal amount, and the highestearning Canadians get the full value. We invest quite a bit today in this
poorly targeted basic income; the estimated cost of the basic personal
amount was $33.8 billion federally in 2015, with additional costs to each

Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?

province ($4.3 billion in Ontario).17

In addition to these basic incomes, we have a whole suite of income support
and income security programs that are meant to guarantee minimum levels
of income but are conditional in different ways that generally dont meet
definitions of guaranteed annual incomes. For example, social assistance
programs provide a basic level of support for people who dont have other
sources of income or resources. Employment Insurance and disability
insurance programs such as Ontarios Workplace Safety Insurance Board
and CPP-Disability provide income replacement for people who contribute
to the program over their careers if they lose their jobs or are unable to
work because of disability. The Working Income Tax Benefit acts to top up
peoples income, but only for people who work.
Some parts of this suite of basic income guarantees work relatively well,
and some fall disappointingly short. Old Age Security and the Guaranteed
Income Supplement have played a critical role in reducing poverty for
seniors.18 The Canada Child Benefit is projected to move hundreds of
thousands of children out of poverty in its first year.19 However when you
look at our income security system as a whole, we clearly have room for
improvement. People with severe disabilities can get vastly different levels
of support depending on how and when they acquired their disabilities.
Social assistance provides support far below what it takes to afford
necessities, and subjects people in need to a web of requirements that often
prevent them from making lasting moves out of poverty, and doesnt treat
recipients with dignity. The question is whether we would be better off
replacing most or all of these different programs with a new universal basic
income, or if it would be better to reform and add to the existing system so
that they work together to meet minimum income standards.

17

Figures from Department of Finance Canada. Report on Federal Tax Expenditures Concepts, Estimates
and Evaluations 2016. March 2016. https://www.fin.gc.ca/taxexp-depfisc/2016/taxexp1604-eng.asp#Credit-for-the-Basic-Personal-Amount; and Ontario Ministry of Finance. Transparency in Taxation, 2015. 26
November 2015. http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/budget/fallstatement/2015/transparency.html

18

Conference Board of Canada. Elderly Poverty. How Canada Performs. http://www.conferenceboard.ca/hcp/

details/society/elderly-poverty.aspx

19

Monsebraaten, Laurie. Child benefit to pull record number of kids out of poverty, Minister says. 15 June
2016. Toronto Star. https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2016/06/15/child-benefit-to-pull-record-number-of-kidsout-of-poverty-minister-says.html

Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?

What problem are we trying to solve?

In debates around new basic income proposals, its not only often unclear
just what is being proposed, there is also a lack of consensus about exactly
what problem we are trying to solve. Leaving aside those motivated by
any opportunity to shrink the size of government and replace it with
the market, people have raised basic income as a response to a range
of different problems. As Samuel Hammond argues in Foreign Policy,
some of those rationales are contradictory on their face.20 Its worth
understanding each of these concerns to understand whether a basic income
is the best way to respond to them.

Problem: Too many people cannot maintain a

decent standard of living
One of the main arguments for basic income is to respond to the
problem of people not having enough money to meet their needs
in other words, addressing poverty. But the shortfall that people face
in having enough to make ends meet looks different depending on
who we are talking about. For people who are working and facing
stagnating wages that leave them struggling to make ends meet, a
modest amount of support to augment their incomes might bridge
that gap.21 For people who rely on inadequate income support
systems, it would take a much more significant boost to meet this
goal.22 Social assistance programs typically leave people well short of
the poverty line.23
Basic income could theoretically send people enough money to bring
them out of poverty.24 The question is whether a single universal
program is the best way to do that. If basic income were to come at
the expense of existing programs, this problem could be worse for
many low-income people.

20

Hammond, Samuel. When the Welfare State met the Flat Tax. 16 June 2016. Foreign Policy. http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/16/when-the-welfare-state-met-the-flat-tax/

21

Hughes, 2016.

22

Sas, Jonathan. Progressives and the Guaranteed Income Debate. 14 March 2016. The Broadbent Blog. (Broadbent Institute). http://www.broadbentinstitute.ca/jonathansas/progressives_guaranteed_income_debate

23

Tiessen, Kaylie. Ontarios Social Assistance Poverty Gap. 9 May 2016. Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives.
https://www.policyalternatives.ca/publications/reports/ontarios-social-assistance-poverty-gap

24

Stern, Andy. Moving towards a universal basic income. 12 April 2016. Jobs and Development Blog. World
Bank http://blogs.worldbank.org/jobs/moving-towards-universal-basic-income

Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?

Problem: The social safety net is tangled and

filled with holes
For some, the problem to be solved by universal basic income
policies is that our social safety net is riddled with complications
that allow some people to slip through while trapping others in
poverty with welfare wall effects.25 Our approach to social policy
reflects a collection of clumsy but temporarily effective responses
to problems as they arise, each justifiable in their own context, but
taken together, combine for the kind of gerry-rigged, opaque and
complicated approach that Steven Teles calls a kludgeocracy.26
Basic income is a chance to replace the red tape27 and stigma28 with
a simpler approach that can support people in a way that respects
their dignity and agency. The related libertarian version of this
problem is that our current system sees government play too large a
role in the economy and peoples lives, and that we would be better
off giving that money directly to individuals to meet their needs
in the market, saving money on administration of programs in the
process, money that could be redirected to people in need.29
Replacing a patchwork of responses to particular needs with a
universal income approach would also respond to the gaps that have
emerged as our safety net has failed to keep pace with economic and
social transformations.30

25

Torjman, Sherri and Battle, Ken. Breaking Down the Welfare Wall. July 1993. Caledon Institute of Social
Policy. http://www.caledoninst.org/Publications/PDF/488ENG.pdf

26

Teles, Steven. Kludgeocracy: The American Way of Policy. 10 December 2012. New America Foundation.
https://www.newamerica.org/economic-growth/policy-papers/kludgeocracy-the-american-way-of-policy/

27

Zon, Noah. Less red tape for business, why not people? June 2016. Maytree. http://maytree.com/policy-and-insights/opinion/less-red-tape-for-business-why-not-people.html

28

Calnitsky, David. Basic income: social assistance without the stigma. 30 May 2016. Toronto Star. https://www.
thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2016/05/30/basic-income-social-assistance-without-the-stigma.html

29

Zwolinsky, Matt. The Pragmatic Libertarian Case for a Basic Income Guarantee. 4 August 2014. Cato Unbound. http://www.cato-unbound.org/2014/08/04/matt-zwolinski/pragmatic-libertarian-case-basic-income-guarantee

30

Granofsky, Thomas, Corak, Miles, Johal, Sunil and Zon, Noah. Renewing Canadas Social Architecture. May
2015. Mowat Centre. http://social-architecture.ca/

Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?

10

Rather than creating a set of targeted programs, the flexibility of

an all-purpose universal basic income would allow it to respond to
challenges like the financial burden of unpaid caregiving31 or the
high costs of child care32 that more and more families need to rely
on.
The overall approach of a basic income could definitely improve on
the complicated set of programs we have today. However, not all of
the problems that we try to address through the social safety net can
be easily addressed by providing everyone with a little more money.
Would a basic income account for peoples different needs, including
those such as drug coverage, that are not well-served by the market?
The more adjustments that we make for these complexities, the
more a basic income starts to look like our current system, for better
or for worse.

31

Hylmar, Stephanie. A Profile of Family Caregivers in Ontario. 2016. The Change Foundation. http://www.
changefoundation.ca/profile-of-family-caregivers-announcement/

32

Johal, Sunil and Granofsky, Thomas. Growing Pains: Childcare in Canada. June 2015. Mowat Centre. http://
social-architecture.ca/growing-pains-childcare-in-canada/

Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?

11

Problem: The risk of weak labour markets

A combination of economists and technologists see basic income
as a way to respond to an expected wave of automation enabled
by robotics and artificial intelligence.33 In other words, the robots
are coming for our jobs. A recent report from the Brookfield
Institute found that 42 per cent of Canadian jobs are at high risk
of automation just taking into account existing technology.34 This
problem is regularly cited by advocates who say that we need basic
income policies to compensate for the risk that these jobs would not
be replaced by a new set of emerging jobs in industries that we are
not yet aware of.35 In this scenario, automation allows us to continue
to create a great deal of wealth and value as a society, while needing
fewer workers to do so. In this scenario, basic income policies are
how we make sure everyone can have a decent standard of living,
even if it is harder to achieve that through employment.
Others point to the challenges today in the quality and quantity
of full-time employment. A report from Policy Horizons Canada
(a federal government think tank) projects that virtual work and
freelancing are likely to become a feature of most Canadians work
lives, bringing both flexibility and instability.36 Basic income is seen
as a way to buffer against the precarity of work, including both
the low level and insecurity of income from part-time and contract
employment.37

33

Matthews, Dylan. Some residents of Oakland are about to get a basic income. 1 June 2016. Vox. http://www.
vox.com/2016/1/28/10860830/y-combinator-basic-income

34

Lamb, Creig. The Talented Mr. Robot. 14 June 2016. Brookfield Institute for Innovation and Entrepreneurship. http://brookfieldinstitute.ca/research-analysis/automation/

35

See for example: Bolton, Doug. Basic income may be needed to combat robot-induced unemployment, leading
AI expert says. 19 February 2016. The Independent. http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/
news/basic-income-artificial-intelligence-ai-robots-automation-moshe-vardi-a6884086.html ; Freedman, David.
Basic Income: A sellout of the American Dream. 13 June 2016. MIT Technology Review. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601499/basic-income-a-sellout-of-the-american-dream/ ; Fingas, Jon. Y Combinator basic
income makes up for jobs lost in tech. 1 June 2016. Engadget. https://www.engadget.com/2016/06/01/y-combinator-basic-income-experiment/ ; Stern, Andy. The Case for Unions to Support a Universal Basic Income. 27
June 2016. The Atlantic. http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/06/unions-and-ubi/488951/

36

Policy Horizons Canada. Canada and the Changing Nature of Work. May 2016. http://horizons.gc.ca/eng/
content/canada-and-changing-nature-work

37

Bueckert, Kate. Waterloo region committee support call for guaranteed basic income national discussion. 14
June 2016. CBC News. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/guaranteed-basic-income-waterloo-region-1.3634176 ; Citizens Advice. The Importance of Income Security. https://www.citizensadvice.org.
uk/Global/CitizensAdvice/welfare%20publications/The%20Importance%20of%20Income%20Security%20
(Final).pdf

Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?

12

This is the most ambiguous of the big challenges for which basic
income is presented as a big solution. The post-work future is not a
foregone conclusion. If it is, its not clear that a modest government
cheque would be a real replacement for work. However, this
justification does help raise some important questions that are
relevant today, such as how a basic income would influence peoples
participation in the workforce, and how it would affect inequality.

Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?

13

Would a basic income solve these problems?

Each of these problems deserves our attention. The question is whether a
universal basic income could solve them, and whether its the best way forward.
Maintaining a decent standard of living
Giving people a bit more money may not be a panacea, but we do know
it helps. Providing people with low incomes with more money even
relatively modest amounts through simple cash transfers has been shown
to have measurable improvements for peoples lives. In Manitoba, a small
cash benefit to low-income pregnant women translated to healthier babies,
as mothers could better afford necessities.38 Cash child benefits make a big
difference in the lives of low-income families, as money supports basic
needs and investments in childrens education.39 Randomized controlled
trials testing unconditional cash transfers in the developing world have
also shown that simple transfers of money to low-income households have
strong benefits.40 When you give people who dont have enough money
more of it, no strings attached, it gets used well.
Its not clear, however, that a universal basic income would be likely to put
more money in the hands of people with the lowest incomes. It depends on
the level that its set at it, how its designed, and what it would replace. A
basic income of even $800 per month ($9,600 per year) would be at least
a modest improvement for most single employable people in Canada
over the meagre welfare incomes41 that they get from provincial social
assistance and federal and provincial tax credits even more so if it were
to come without the punitive rules of most social assistance programs.
For others, losing other income supports (such as child benefits) or other
benefits (such as extended health coverage) would quickly leave them
worse off, even before taking into account the effects of higher taxes to
pay for the program. This is particularly true if we look not just at income
but at whether that income is sufficient to meet the costs of an acceptable

38

Zafar, Amina and Birak, Christine. $81 per month buys a healthier baby. 12 May 2016. CBC News.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/healthy-baby-prenatal-income-benefit-1.3578029

39

Stabile, Mark and Jones, Lauren. The truth about Canadas low-income benefits: they work. 21 April 2015.
The Globe and Mail. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/the-truth-about-canadas-low-income-benefitsthey-work/article24042813/

40

Haushofer, Johannes and Shapiro, Jeremy. The Short-term Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers to the Poor:
Experimental Evidence from Kenya. 25 April 2016. https://www.princeton.edu/~joha/publications/Haushofer_
Shapiro_UCT_2016.04.25.pdf

41

Tweddle, Anne, Battle, Ken and Torjman, Sherri. Welfare in Canada, 2014. November 2015. Caledon Institute
of Social Policy. http://www.caledoninst.org/Publications/PDF/1086ENG.pdf

Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?

14

Total annual welfare incomes (social assistance and tax credits)

for single employable people
$12,000

$11,035

$10,000

$8,000

$8,995
$7,813

$7,791

$8,507

$8,527

$7,707

$7,519

$7,182

$7,519

NB

NS

PE

$6,000

$4,000

$2,000

$-

BC

AB

SK

MB

ON

QC

NL

Source: Caledon Institute, Welfare Incomes 2014

standard of living.42
The biggest question about whether basic income would really allow people
to maintain a decent standard of living comes down to just how much
income the program would provide. From the information that we have to
rely on, there is a real risk that a universal basic income could leave some
of the poorest Canadians worse off, especially if some important existing
supports are cancelled to pay for it.43
Take the Manitoba MINCOME experiment from the 1970s, which tested
an income guarantee with a sample of Manitobans, including the town of
Dauphin (population 12,000).44 The guarantee was equivalent to about 60
per cent of the poverty line at the time ($7,500 in 2016 dollars for a single
person or $23,500 for a family of five).45 This is not enough on its own to
allow people to maintain a decent standard of living. Any other income
was clawed back at 50 cents on the dollar,46 so that low-income people
faced a very high effective tax rate, and a single person with the equivalent
of $15,000 in income (in todays dollars) would not get any support from
the program. While this was an improvement on the welfare programs at
42

Notten, Geranda and Mendelson, Michael. Using low income and material deprivation to monitor poverty reduction. July 2016. Caledon Institute of Social Policy. http://www.caledoninst.org/Publications/PDF/1103ENG.
pdf

43

Greenstein, Robert. Commentary: A Universal Basic Income May Sound Attractive, But, If It Occurred, Would
Likelier Increase Poverty Than Reduce It. 31 May 2016. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. http://www.
cbpp.org/poverty-and-opportunity/commentary-universal-basic-income-may-sound-attractive-but-if-it-occurred

44

Forget, Evelyn L. The Town with no Poverty. February 2011. https://public.econ.duke.edu/~erw/197/forget-cea%20(2).pdf

45

Canadian Press. Guaranteed income: Evolving technology, movement away from the 9-to-5 driving discussion.
17 April 2016. CBC News. http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/guaranteed-income-back-in-vogue-1.3539948

46

Forget, 2011.

Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?

15

the time, it would take more to guarantee a better standard of living for
Canadians today.
In the mid-1990s, a federal government panel studied two other potential
approaches that were ultimately not adopted (more on these below).47
They found that in these cases, a basic income would have meaningful but
modest effects on poverty. The more generous of the two approaches was
projected to reduce the share of households living in poverty from 12.8
per cent to 9.7 per cent, while the more modest package would reduce the
share to 11.4 percent. The study also found that while poverty would go
down on aggregate, some people living in poverty would have been worse
off if the federal government had followed through with one of these
approaches to a basic income.
Overcoming the tangles and holes of the social safety net
By nature, a universal basic income would help to make sure that people
dont fall through the worst cracks of the existing safety net based on
onerous eligibility requirements like limits on liquid assets.48 It would
theoretically also be more flexible to help people address a variety of
needs, including those we havent designed targeted programs for. How
well it would do this, and whether it would offer a simple, user-friendly
system to improve on our sometimes clumsy social safety net depends
on the details. All but the most simplistic of basic income policies would
tailor the level of support based on income, leaving in place at least some
of the administration and the welfare wall effects. The more sensitive
to individual situations that the policy gets adjustments for local cost of
living, additional support for persons with disabilities, responsiveness to
changes in income or need the more a basic income policy looks like what
we have now, with similar strengths and weaknesses.
One of the common arguments for a basic income is to overcome the
stigma of welfare for recipients, to improve their lives through social
inclusion and to keep political support for the program. For the stigma on
recipients, we dont need to introduce a new basic income. We can build
on how we already deliver an increasing number of our programs simple
electronic funds transfers that no one other than the recipient needs to
know about. As far as whether people are more likely to support assistance
47

Government of Canada. Improving Social Security in Canada Guaranteed Annual Income: A Supplementary
Paper. 1994. http://www.canadiansocialresearch.net/ssrgai.htm

48

Monsebraaten, Laurie. Debilitating illness leaves Toronto man struggling to get by. 27 June 2016. Toronto
Star. https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2016/06/27/debilitating-illness-leaves-toronto-man-struggling-to-get-by.
html

Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?

16

to people with low income if its part of a universal program, the evidence
is mixed, especially when we look at long-term trends.49 Even then, a
program with universal eligibility does not mean that every person needs to
get the same thing universal health care means that everyone has access
to the treatment they need when they need it, not that they get the same
treatment regardless of condition.
Our safety net is designed to address some needs that cant easily be
addressed by cash alone. Some parts of the safety net are designed to
replace income, such as Employment Insurance, pensions, and disability
insurance programs. In each of these areas, we have seen some significant
gaps emerge, leaving some people poorly covered. However, a basic
income that provides, say, $10,000 per year, would not be good insurance
to replace income of $50,000 in the case of job loss or disability. These
particular gaps in the safety net would not be well-served by a basic income
approach. If a universal basic income came at the expense of these other
functions of the safety net, or programs that make sure that people can get
medicine or access post-secondary education, then we could leave many
people worse off.
Responding to weaker job markets
There is no doubt that having a guaranteed minimum income would take
some sting out of weaker labour markets. However, when compared
against the challenges of precarious work or weak job markets, a basic
income is a clumsy response.
Even with artificial intelligence, robotics, and driverless cars on the horizon,
its not clear that jobs are any more at risk from technological change
than in the past. Fifty years ago, a 1964 U.S. blue ribbon commission
appointed by President Johnson to look at automation, technology and
jobs was concerned about the same risk and recommended a guaranteed
minimum income as a response.50 What followed was some of the strongest
employment growth in modern history. Theres a case that the trend of
technology replacing jobs has in fact slowed down.51
While future challenges are difficult to predict, there are pressing challenges
today that contribute to working poverty. One dimension of precarious
49

Greenstein, 2016.

50

Autor, David. Polanyis Paradox and the Shape of Employment Growth. September 2014. http://economics.
mit.edu/files/9835

51

Yglesias, Matt. The Automation Myth. 27 July 2015. Vox. http://www.vox.com/2015/7/27/9038829/automation-myth

Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?

17

labour markets is a decreasing coverage by employers for health, dental and

disability benefits.52 Even if basic income policies were to provide enough
cash, not all of these needs are easy for individuals to meet in the market.
If a basic income did not include a response that made sure people were
covered for these needs, then it could quickly leave people worse off.53
If we wanted to respond to the challenge of work becoming less secure
and less well-paid, then we might be better off choosing a more targeted
response designed for those problems. Specifically, we might invest more
in the federal Working Income Tax Benefit, which is intended to boost
the incomes of people in working poverty and provide an incentive to
assistance recipients to move from welfare to work. We also should make
Employment Insurance more responsive to the needs of contract and parttime workers to insure against dips in their incomes.
While this set of problems isnt exhaustive, it gives a good sense of the
range of the problems that are identified for basic income to respond to.
Just as important as whats on this list is what is missing. While many basic
income proposals talk about providing a grant to every person regardless
of their circumstances, it is not clear what problem would be addressed by
giving these same grants to middle- and upper-income people, even if they
might return large portions through higher tax rates.54 There is no problem
for which the solution is to give unconditional cash transfers to people with
high incomes.

52

Barnes, Steve, Abban Vanessa and Alexandra Weiss. Low Wages, No Benefits: Expanding Access to Health
Benefits for Low-Income Ontarians. February 2015. http://www.wellesleyinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Low-Wages-No-Benefits-Wellesley-Institute-Feb-2015.pdf

53

Greenstein, 2016.

54

Painter, Anthony. Why Should David Cameron Receive a Basic Income? 30 March 2016. Medium. https://
medium.com/@anthonypainter/why-should-david-cameron-receive-a-basic-income-1da3bdb0eeca#.9y9j4d5ko

Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?

18

What would a basic income cost?

The cost of a basic income approach does not just depend on how the
amount of the new cheques we would send people each month, it would
depend just as much on what these cheques would replace and what
else would happen with taxes and the economy as a result. These are
complicated factors even with detailed proposals to consider, and much
more so without any fleshed-out proposals.
We do know:
There are some essential trade-offs between cost and
generosity: Compared to current approaches, the Institute
for Fiscal Studies in the U.K. says that we can expect a basic
income guarantee to be either a lot less generous or a lot
more expensive.55
The very high price tag of the more expensive versions of
the program comes from transferring cash to middle- and
upper-income households. Even if those benefits are taxed
back, the money is being moved back and forth in a leaky
bucket.56 A design that phases-out benefits to focus them
on people with low incomes is significantly less expensive,
and more efficient.57
It is possible to replace some portion of existing social
spending with a basic income, though it is difficult to replace
too much without leaving people worse off. These potential
savings come nowhere close to covering the cost of a basic
income guarantee. Canadian governments currently spend
about 4.6 per cent of GDP on income supports for working
age adults.58 To cover a $10,000 per person basic income,
The Economist estimated that it would take something in
the realm of a further 12 per cent of GDP.59

55

Harford, Tim. Could an income for all provide the ultimate safety net? 3 May 2016. http://timharford.
com/2016/05/could-an-income-for-all-provide-the-ultimate-safety-net/

56

Hammond, Samuel. Universal Basic Income is just a Negative Income Tax with a Leaky Bucket. 9 June 2016.
Niskanen Center. https://niskanencenter.org/blog/universal-basic-income-is-just-a-negative-income-tax-with-aleaky-bucket/

57

Schirle, Tammy. Universal benefits: are they worth it? 4 May 2015. Policy Options. http://policyoptions.irpp.
org/2015/05/04/universal-benefits-are-they-worth-it/

58

OECD Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs. Social Expenditure Update. November 2014.
http://www.oecd.org/els/soc/OECD2014-Social-Expenditure-Update-Nov2014-8pages.pdf

59

Universal basic income in the OECD. 3 June 2016. The Economist. http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/daily-chart-1?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/universalbasicincomeintheoecd

Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?

19

Based on two different estimates, we can get an overall sense of what a

Canadian basic income guarantee might cost.
In 1994, the federal government published a discussion paper as part of
its social security reform work that modeled the costs of two versions of
a new Guaranteed Annual Income program for working age adults.60 For
context, Canadas GDP (in 2016 dollars) is about $2 trillion, and the federal
government expects to spend $317 billion this year, $26 billion of which will
go to interest payments.
The first option was a universal grant that would provide
everyone with the same amount (offset by higher taxes).
The grant would provide $7,000 (about $10,600 in todays
dollars) to all adults, and half that amount for children.
The sticker price for this version was $146 billion (about
$221 billion in todays dollars). If this grant was combined
with eliminating provincial social assistance and most tax
benefits, and limiting eligibility for Employment Insurance,
the net cost would be reduced to $96 billion ($145 billion
in todays dollars). These changes would leave a number of
people worse off.
The second option was a more modest income top-up
style approach to supplement the incomes of lower-income
Canadians. This program would provide a $4,500 top-up for
adults and $3,000 for children. These more modest benefits
would be phased out as income rose, at rates ranging from
15 cents on each dollar to 27 cents, depending on family
size and structure. This would cost $37 billion in 1994 ($56
billion in todays dollars), and would have been cost neutral
if combined with eliminating social assistance and tax
benefits and limiting Employment Insurance.
While these estimates would look fairly different today, given both the
changing face of poverty and the many changes to tax credits and income
support programs in the past two decades, they do give a sense of the
general magnitude of costs.
Kevin Milligan of UBC did a cost analysis of some basic income guarantee
options to give a general idea of the level of spending involved.61 He
60

Government of Canada, 1994.

61

Dr. Milligans cost analysis was published on January 17, 2014 and is available here: https://docs.google.com/
spreadsheets/d/1iDbOimKPXtsAwoP9rCAUl3B_wtew9roqeGX8khHbbuc/edit?pref=2&pli=1#gid=0

Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?

20

looked at two different variations of basic income one that would give a
guaranteed income of $15,000 to each adult, and one that guaranteed each
family an income that would bring them at least to the poverty line. If you
let people keep the entire payment regardless of their income, this basic
income would cost in excess of $300 billion (more than the entire federal
budget) even after replacing social assistance programs.
When we look at how basic income programs are designed, there are tradeoffs between making it more affordable and making it more effective. If the
basic income payments are clawed back sharply as people earn income, the
cost of the program goes down significantly. However, high phase out rates
effectively hit people with incredibly high effective tax rates that help to
build a welfare wall. Avoiding the welfare wall makes for more expensive
programs.

Cost of basic income programs

350

300

$Billions (2010 dollars)

250

200

150

100

50

0
0%

25%

$15,000 transfer to all adults

50%
Benefit phase-out rate for each dollar of income

75%

100%

Transfer equal to poverty line (Low Income Cut-off [LICO] before tax) to all families

Source: Milligan, 2014

Most proposals for basic income acknowledge the need for substantial
changes to the tax system in order to pay for it. What is clear from these
cost estimates is that the scope of the changes necessary would have to be
substantial. Any consideration of the benefits of a basic income need to be
considered alongside the costs of the plans to pay for it, including the tax
rates faced by low-income Canadians, the loss of other credits and services,
and the overall economic impact. There is no easy way to pay for this
even substantial tax increases for higher income Canadians would not come
close to paying for a substantial universal basic income.

Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?

21

Conclusion
With the discussion about basic income guarantees heating up in Canada
and elsewhere, its worth grounding ourselves in what we are trying to
achieve before we size up largely hypothetical policies. While there are
some sharp political differences between some of the camps arguing for
universal basic income, there is also some important common ground.
For example, it is good news to see broad support for the goal of improving
the flexibility and responsiveness of our social safety net. Many of our
income support programs are burdened by a tangle of arcane regulations
and punitive rules that treat low-income people poorly and trap them in
poverty.62 Many involved in the basic income debate have also emphasized
that we are falling short today of ensuring that people are guaranteed a
dignified existence.
If we really want to solve these problems, we should not fixate on a basic
income policy. When we compare against the strengths and weaknesses of our
current system, we can see that most proposals for a basic income are both
prohibitively expensive and leave many people with very low incomes worse
off. Thats not a good basis for a massive transformation of social policy.
That doesnt mean that we shouldnt look to build guaranteed incomes.63 The
guaranteed income systems that we now have in place for children and seniors
are some of the most important tools we have in Canada to reduce poverty.
There is room to build on those systems and improve other programs to
have a more effective and connected approach to income security.64 The
way that we reformed income support for children in the 1990s is a good
example of a more incremental approach towards guaranteed incomes.65
We moved support for low-income children out of the social assistance
system, where it was subject to punitive and counter-productive rules, to a
simpler guaranteed income program for children that is now at the heart of
the Canada Child Benefit.
Its worth looking at which other kinds of support including both cash
and in-kind benefits like prescription drug coverage can be made more
broadly available to low-income Canadians that need it. Even within
62

Zon, 2016.

63

Battle, 2015a.

64

Stapleton, John. Income Security for Working Age Adults in Canada: Lets Consider the Model thats Right
Under our Nose. November 2008. Metcalf Foundation. http://metcalffoundation.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/income-security-for-adults.pdf

65

Battle, 2015b.

Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?

22

financial support, we should also be looking beyond income support to

include programs like the Canada Learning Bond that help low-income
people build assets that provide some financial security.66
The fact that we have a variety of different policies and programs is one of
the core strengths of our social safety net, not a failing to overcome. People
in different situations, of different ages, and different parts of the country
have different needs. A single transfer is alluringly simple, but one size does
not fit all. A diverse system of policies and programs is better suited to our
diverse needs and arguably more politically resilient in tougher times than
a single costly program that is not tied to any particular group or need. We
would be better off looking at different policies designed with particular
problems in mind expanding the Working Income Tax Benefit, reforming
Employment Insurance, building better support for people with disabilities
than trying to address all of these different needs with a single tool.
Where we have seen success in Canada and elsewhere is in income guarantees
and income top-ups that move people out of poverty. The federal government
has made a transformative move to guarantee a minimum income for families
with the Canada Child Benefit. It also has boosted the income guarantee for
seniors through an add-on to the Guaranteed Income Supplement. There are
many good reasons that we have two different programs there for different
groups with different needs. As the Ontario government develops its pilot
project and other governments explore basic income, they would do well to
keep in mind this approach of different solutions to match different problems.
Its great to see the enthusiasm that the basic income discussion is bringing
to the goal of ending poverty and improving peoples lives. At the risk of
spoiling the party, its important to be clear just what were talking about.
A simple universal program has a natural appeal. In practice, there is a real
risk that basic income could worsen poverty, rather than eliminate it.

66

Nares, Peter and Robson, Jennifer. Research Brief: Poverty is About Assets as Well as Income. 2003. Policy
Horizons Canada. http://www.horizons.gc.ca/eng/content/research-brief-poverty-about-assets-well-income

Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?

23

Copyright Maytree 2016

170 Bloor Street West, Suite 804
Toronto, ON M5S 1T9
CANADA
+1-416-944-2627
info@maytree.com
www.maytee.com
@maytree_canada

Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?

24