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NOIDA/DELHI

EDITORIAL

THE HINDU MONDAY, JANUARY 9, 2017

Revisiting a passage from India

The challenge before India lies in the way it taps its widespread disaporas financial and intellectual capital.
For this it needs to adopt a wise, pro-active, secular, non-jingoistic tone
M O N D AY , J A N U A RY 9 , 2 0 1 7

The slowing
economy

hat Indias economic momentum has

slowed down is now beyond doubt. Advance GDP estimates and gross value added (GVA) for the current fiscal year
from the Central Statistics Office clearly reveal the
extent of the slowdown. While GDP growth is now
pegged at 7.1 per cent, compared with a 7.6 per cent
pace in 2015-16, GVA is forecast to expand at 7 per
cent this year, easing from the 7.2 per cent posted 12
months earlier. And as the Chief Statistician emphasised, these projections were based solely on
data from the first seven months through October
and do not factor in the impact from the withdrawal
of high-value banknotes and the consequent cash
crunch. A closer look at the sectoral GVA projections throws into relief the areas of concern: Mining and quarrying is estimated to shrink 1.8 per cent
this year after expanding 7.4 per cent a year earlier,
while electricity, gas, water supply and other utility
services collectively an indicator of broader economic activity is slowing to 6.5 per cent from 6.6
per cent. More worryingly, the seven-month numbers establish that two key engines of the economy,
manufacturing and services, are losing momentum
faster than was anticipated, and this could spell
trouble for the coming quarters. This is especially
so when seen in the backdrop of demonetisation
and what the Reserve Bank of India referred to as
the short-run disruptions in economic activity in
cash-intensive sectors such as retail trade, hotels &
restaurants and transportation, and in the unorganised sector and aggregate demand compression
associated with adverse wealth effects.
There is a silver lining in the CSO data, though.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley in April projected
that growth could accelerate this year to 8 per cent
to 8.5 per cent subject to a normal monsoon. The
improvement in rainfall has manifested both in the
CSOs projection for the agriculture, forestry and
fishing sector, which is estimated to expand 4.1 per
cent this fiscal compared with the previous periods 1.2 per cent, and in rabi sowing data from the
Ministry of Agriculture. Preliminary reports from
the States show the total area sown under the rabi
crop as on January 6 stood at 602.75 lakh ha, up 6.5
per cent from last year. If farmers countrywide can
tide over the acute cash shortage resulting from demonetisation and ensure that the sowing translates
to strong growth in output, we could see rural consumption provide some cushioning from the slowdown. Nonetheless, in the Union budget due next
month, the Centre will have to work in a substantial
fiscal fillip to help rekindle economic momentum.

K.C. SINGH

January 9 commemorates the day Mahatma

Gandhi returned from South Africa in 1915,
after honing satyagraha, or peaceful protest,
against the colonial and racist regime there.
In 2002, the National Democratic Alliance
(NDA) government of Prime Minister Atal
Bihari Vajpayee decided to celebrate it annually by holding events including bestowing
awards on prominent members of the Indian
diaspora. The 15th edition of Pravasi Divas
this year is now on in Bengaluru.
When as Ambassador to the United Arab
Emirates in 2002 I was asked to recommend
one name for the Pravasi awards, I refrained
from doing so, fearing a single pick from
many deserving ones might create speculation regarding my motives and heartburn
among those bypassed. Since then it seems
the process has gone the way of the Padma
awards, where hectic lobbying and politics
trump merit.
Diaspora is an omnibus phrase which
brackets people of Indian origin who have
emigrated since the 19th century to all
corners of the world. Roughly it falls into two
categories: pre- and post-Independence. The
latter further subdivides into migration to
the West, including Australia and New Zealand, and workers in the West Asian countries
numbering over seven million who
began flocking there following oil cartelisation by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries after the Arab-Israel war
of 1973 and the steep rise in oil prices.
The Indian in West Asia
The last can be examined first. The earnings bonanza allowed the hereditary rulers of
West Asia to unleash a spending and construction boom. Despite cycles of economic
expansion and contraction, as oil prices rose
or fell, the six Gulf Cooperation Council
(GCC) states have learnt to live with the perils of single commodity dependent economies. Some such as Dubai, with almost depleted oil reserves, have remodelled
themselves as entrept for regional trade and
a destination for tourism and convivial living,

The danger with public and

Hindutva-fed ritual is that it may
create a majority community
backlash and divide the
Indian diaspora
besides emerging as a financial centre. Both
Abu Dhabi and Qatar are modelling themselves as centres of culture and sports, civil
aviation hubs and more spartan living. They
also have poured earnings each year into sovereign funds to act as a cushion during the
low oil price years.
But they face two new challenges. One, the
shale oil revolution in the United States combined with slower global growth and environmental concerns may have already pushed
the world into a post-OPEC phase and perennial low oil prices. Two, the entire region to
the west of India up to the Mediterranean is
now swept by Shia-Sunni contestation and
the challenge posed by radical Islam. Thus
instability may persist for decades.
Therefore, Indians in GCC countries, ranging from skilled and unskilled workers to
those holding executive jobs or running businesses, may have to face more challenging
circumstances of economic slowdown, Arabisation or more jobs to locals, and threats

from terror-related events. Indian workers,

particularly the vast majority from Kerala,
are still the favoured ones of the locals but are
under pressure from more skilled workers
from countries such as the Philippines or
cheaper labour from Nepal, etc. In India, the
Union and State governments have failed to
upgrade skills of Indian workers going to
West Asia. Congress-led governments have
been particularly guilty, allowing the Kerala
lobby in the Union cabinet to drive Indias
GCC policy. Often ministers have had kin
located there, compromising their ability to
act independently.
As a rising power, Indias prestige suffers
when its citizens are seen doing menial jobs.
Moreover Indian strategic options get limited fearing reprisal against workers. That is
why for decades India has let its citizens be
subjected to local labour rules that are medieval and regressive, such as employer seizing
the travel documents of the worker on arrival. Similarly, it should not require tweets to
the Minister of External Affairs to get simple
consular acts performed. Their safety and security as indeed sanctity of their contracts
must be addressed by local missions, which
should be accountable for any slip-ups.
Triumph over adversity
India has a largely positive record dealing
with the diaspora that left India as indentured labour in the 19th century in the
period from 1833 to 1917 particularly for the
Caribbean where labour shortages ensued
following the abolition of slavery. Coincidently, the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court,
J.S. Khehar, hails from East Africa.
The expulsion of Indians from Uganda by
Idi Amin in the 1970s tested Indian diplomacy and its ability to protect the diaspora.
India passed the buck to Britain as the guarantor of their safety as most held British documents. Mauritius, with Indians constituting
the largest group and 48.5per cent of the population being Hindus, has seen the community consolidate political power, with
strategic support from Indian governments.
Located strategically in the Indian Ocean,
this country has been an asset for India, safeguarding the Southern maritime flank. Contrariwise, India was unable to support 49 per
cent of Indo-Fijians in their desire for a multiethnic government when, in 1987, Lt. Col. S.

CARTOONSCAPE

Unclogging
the cities

he move to make New Delhis iconic Connaught Place a pedestrian zone from February, and keep out cars and other
vehicles from its middle and inner circle
roads, during a three-month trial programme is an
inspiring attempt to reconquer public space. Urban
design in India is the preserve of State governments
and local bodies, which have failed spectacularly to
provide a safe, comfortable and accessible experience for walkers. The pilot project in the national
capital represents a refreshing change, taking a leaf
out of the book of global cities that have pedestrianised their landmarks, often in the face of conservative opposition. Prominent examples are Times
Square in New York and the route along the Seine in
Paris, and the curbs on cars in central avenue in
Madrid. Contrary to apprehensions that restrictions affect commercial activity, the experience
around the world has been quite the opposite: better walking and public transport infrastructure and
availability of food plazas attract more people, improving the local economy. In America, pedestrian
injuries decreased after vehicles were removed
from Times Square, beginning seven years ago.
Globally this has been the trend too when cities
curb car use and clean up the air. Such examples
should convince the Ministry of Urban Development that it is moving in the right direction, and if
anything, this needs to be extended to other cities.
Keeping powered vehicles out of core areas, expanding pavements for pedestrians and facilitating
the use of bicycles is today a high-priority goal for
mayors and urban governments the world over. In
the intermediate phase, many cities find it rewarding to levy a stiff congestion charge on personal
vehicles entering designated areas. This is a mature
idea and needs to be trialled in India, under its ongoing smart cities programme. It should be mandated by law that all proceeds would go towards
funding walking, bicycling and emissions-free public transport infrastructure. The importance of
such a levy is evident from a study by Transport for
London in 2014-15, that found the British capital losing 5.5 billion a year in financial costs arising from
congestion. Measures to unclog cities are often
posed, wrongly, as detrimental to the economy and
efficiency. While cars will continue to remain relevant for longer-distance travel, dense urban areas
need relief from excessive motorisation. Union
Minister for Urban Development M. Venkaiah
Naidu has favoured people-centric ideas for Connaught Place, including aesthetic features such as
water fountains and areas for relaxation. These are
not expensive to put in, and State governments
must extend the template to all cities and towns, acknowledging the wider social benefits.

A blur between loyalties

Finally, the issue of diaspora in the U.S., the
United Kingdom and Canada. With rising
numbers and greater earnings, they are becoming more proactive to rally in support of
Indian interests. Their lobbying in the U.S.
with politicians worked famously to swing
the Congressional vote for the U.S.-Indian
nuclear deal in 2006.
While the U.S. leads as the country with
the highest number of Indian origin persons
numbering around four million, the U.K. and
Canada are next with 1.45 million and 1.2 million, respectively. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh has been active in spreading its
message of Hindutva in all of them. During
NDA-I, the Vajpayee government even unprecedentedly appointed a special ambassador in the U.S. for diaspora affairs, raising
protocol issues with the U.S. State Department. Thus he had to be located in New York
with notional attachment to the Indian mission to the UN, as no country will accept two
ambassadors.
That absurdity died with that government,
but Prime Minister Narendra Modis
Madison Square Garden show took the same
to another level. There was a blurring
between the loyalties that Indian origin persons holding U.S. nationality owe to their adopted nation and their innate love for India.
The danger with this kind of public and
Hindutva-fed ritual is that it may create a majority community backlash and divide the diaspora.
For instance, Sikhs are the largest component of the diaspora in Canada, at 34 per cent
compared to 27 per cent Hindus, with the rest
being Muslims and Christians. That is why
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
joked that he had more Sikhs in his cabinet
this includes his Defence Minister than
Mr. Modi. Sikhs are at the number two spot in
the U.K and the U.S.
The Wall Street Journal estimates that
there are 15.6 million persons born in India
living abroad. This number has grown by 17.2
per cent since 2010. The Chinese diaspora is
50 million strong, with 32 million settled in
Southeast Asia. For China, this community
became the bridge to integrate their economy to global supply chains once Deng
Xiaoping opened Chinese doors in the 1980s.
They also funded investment in Chinese economic zones.
Undoubtedly, the Indian diasporas remittances in the past have been of vital assistance to Indian foreign exchange reserves. But
the challenge now is to go to the next stage
of harnessing not just their financial but also
their intellectual capital. The Modi government needs to market not Hindutva-laced
faux nationalism but a new way of dealing
with each of the three groups wisely, proactively, and in a secular non-jingoistic tone.
K.C. Singh is a former diplomat.

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Letters emailed to letters@thehindu.co.in must carry the full postal address and the full name or the name with initials.

Demonetisations narrative

The ordinance route

In the two months of turmoil

following demonetisation, the
lesson most of us have learned is
how to live as far as possible in a
cashless way and to the best of ones
ability (When banks are awash
with cash, Jan.7). The positive
effect of demonetisation can be seen
in banks where the initial rush has
reduced to to a large extent. People
have taken things in their stride. We
are on the way to becoming a
transparent economy as
demonetisation has hit black
marketeers. Only time will tell
whether the governments move has
been a grand success or otherwise.
N. Visveswaran,

One would have hoped that with

progress, this system would hardly
ever be resorted to and the duration
of parliamentary sittings would be
increased. Instead, we have a
piquant situation where even in this
limited duration, constitutional
amendment bills are being set aside.
It should not be about who began
the trend of resorting to
parliamentary disruptions and who
has a more valid issue at hand to do
so. The issue is about the time being
wasted and the dangers of
continuing to adopt such disruptive
tactics. Our political leaders should
realise that with continuing
disruptions, the importance of
Parliament as an institution is losing
its importance. The ruling
dispensation should also provide
ample space for the Opposition to
air its concerns. Parliamentary
committees must be allowed to
work round the year and where
consent becomes necessary, before
promulgating any ordinance
(Editorial Clamping down on
ordinance raj, Jan.7).
Ravi Rai,

Chennai

It is sad that the writer, an

academician who follows the
economy, should label commercial
banks to be inefficient in terms of
handling the currency transition
and in managing loans. The good
service of banks in general in
processing the exchange of
demonetised notes and the
disbursement of new notes has been
appreciated. Tarring the banking
community with the same brush
and implying that it is inefficient
because of wrong-doing by a few
officials while handling such a
humongous exercise is unfair. A
major reason for the rise of NPAs in
the banking system is on account of
the slowdown of the economy. In
managing NPAs, the efficiency of
banks can only be as good as the
support systems available. Everyone
knows where the weak links exist.
A.N. Appaiah,
Mumbai

CM
YK

Rabuka overthrew the elected government.

Their numbers have shrunk since then.
Persons of Indian origin have headed governments in some Caribbean countries such
as Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago, the two
nations with huge Indo-Caribbean populations. Generally, Indian policy in the past has
been to not be seen as meddling in their internal affairs sensing that it may be counterproductive. Two vital links have been religion and cricket. But India has been unable to
build on that base by boosting investment
and business links and better connectivity.
That raises the question, which even China is
beginning to pose now: to what extent would
India be willing to go to protect the diaspora
when it runs into political turbulence in their
countries of abode?

Ghaziabad, Uttar Pradesh

Russian hacking
If Russia was successful in its
hacking attempts during the 2016
U.S. presidential election campaign,
it not only shows the U.S.s
incompetence and inability to ward
off hacking but also its woeful
intelligence failure (World
Putin directed campaign to
discredit Clinton, aid Trump,
Jan.8). Had President-elect Donald
Trump been in the know of alleged

hacking attempts, it would

underscore the fact that he was
ready and willing to employ and
encourage unfair and unjust means
to win the election, and at the cost of
his countrys honour and prestige.
The election result would have been
a different story had the hacking
story been officially revealed
during the campaign. In hindsight, it
must and can be said that the FBI
Directors move to revive the email
controversy involving presidential
candidate Hillary Clinton at the fag
end of the campaign had affected
her election prospects. Ms. Clinton
has genuine reasons to be aggrieved.
All said and done, let it not be
forgotten that the U.S. has covertly
and overtly wielded its power and
sway to influence elections in many
a country. Then why blame Russia
for hacking?
C.G. Kuriakose,
Kothamangalam, Kerala

Dark clouds over Europe

R.K. Raghavan is right in concluding
that multiple regions of the world,
and especially Europe, face the
prospect of increased terrorist
activity (A grim outlook for
Europe, Dec.26). It is not clear how
long European nations, which have
chosen to throw open their borders
to refugees, plan to keep them in
camps given that no serious steps
have been initiated to address the
immediate cause of the crisis
ending the Islamic State-engineered
strife in Syria and Iraq.
The longer the refugee crisis
persists, the more advantageous it is
for extremist organisations. The
refugee influx could prove to be a
Trojan horse.

Russian President Vladimir Putin

has said that there is a need to
focus on stopping the flow of donor
money to IS and its illegal oil trade
which make up the arteries and
lifeblood of the terrorist group. The
U.S. and its allies would do well to
listen to Mr. Putin on Syria.
R. Venkatesan Iyengar
Hyderabad

Parched earth
We are paying the penalty for not
following rain harvesting with
sincerity (Tamil Nadu editions,
Alarming dip in water table across
districts, Jan.7 and Rain-starved
Chennai sees dipping water table,
Jan.6). Even with a marginal
monsoon, rain water harvesting can
ensure nearly four times the optimal
water requirement for agriculture,
drinking and domestic needs.
Allowing the wastage of water
run-off is unfortunate. At least now
we should desilt most of our
waterbodies, and create and repair
water harvesting structures
especially in the rural areas on a
warfooting. Water resources
development should be looked after
by socially aware engineers.
P.C. Pandian,
Chennai

It is painful to read about agrarian

distress due to crop failure and an
inability to pay back debts. Is there
no lasting solution to this problem
other than appealing to the Central
government for relief packages? As
we are likely to face increasing
natural calamities such as poor or
excessive rains, cyclones and
dealing with the politics of the
upstream States over water sharing,

there is a need for a unified state

policy to handle all this, maximise
production and offer stability to
farmers. Smaller land holdings
should be consolidated into larger
holdings to form co-operative farms,
offering shares to farmers pro-rata
and salaries if they also work in the
farm.
This way, availability of loans,
application of scientific methods in
farming, and even marketing and
financial management will be easier.
Large land holdings can have their
own captive water storage and
granaries to stock during better
times and tide over in leaner
seasons. Individual losses can be
avoided. Scientists can offer advice
on crop selection and improving
soil fertility.
S. Sankar,
Chennai

An actor for all seasons

In the demise of actor Om Puri, the
nation has lost an extremely
talented and versatile actor par
excellence. The ease with which he
characterised real life was what
made watching his films a treat.
With his tough looks and raspy
voice, whether it be in the role of
sub-inspector Anant Velankar in
Ardh Satya, Abu Mian the wizened
old gatekeeper in Mirch Masala or
Inspector Udham Singh in Gupt,
he epitomised youth, vigour and
constant resilience against injustice/
oppression coupled with an
insatiable zest and passion for life.
His performances in Gandhi and
the tele-serial Tamas were
exemplary.
B. Suresh Kumar,
Coimbatore
ND-ND