Orec March-2016
Orec March-2016
Real
Estate
Consultants, Inc.
Real Estate Appraisers
and Consultants
Current Assignments
You and/or your clients may benefit from information we have used in our current
assignments, as well as other assignments we have completed.
201 Bradenton Avenue
Dublin, Ohio 43017
Phone: 614/791-0038
Toll Free: 800/536-0038
Fax: 614/791-8956
info@ohiorealestate.org
www.ohiorealestate.org
MULTIFAMILY FAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Occupancy
Occupancy remained in a range from approximately 91% to 93% from June 2009
through May 2011. Occupancy has increased in all sectors since June 2009. Starting in
December 2011, the central area was reported as a separate submarket. It indicates the
highest occupancy. Overall, the east submarket continues to exhibit the lowest occupancy
rates. However, the east submarket has improved since 2009 to a stabilized level.
The reported occupancy does not include concessions. Free rent, reduced deposits
and other incentives had been prevalent in submarkets with lower occupancy, decreasing
effective rent by 3% to 5%. However, beginning in 2010, concessions diminished in the
more popular submarkets.
Occupancy and vacancy rates, by area, are presented in the following table.
Submarket June-09 December-09 October-10 May-11 December-11 August-12 July-13 July-14 February-15
Northwest 95.4% 93.7% 95.7% 96.3% 97.1% 97.3% 96.9% 96.4% 95.9%
Northeast 92.0% 90.3% 92.0% 93.7% 93.8% 94.7% 95.4% 95.5% 95.0%
East 90.9% 89.6% 88.8% 89.7% 89.1% 90.8% 93.7% 93.6% 94.0%
West 91.0% 90.1% 91.2% 93.4% 91.9% 94.4% 95.1% 95.9% 95.6%
Central N/A N/A N/A N/A 98.6% 98.8% 97.1% 97.9% 97.5%
Overall Occupancy 92.3% 90.9% 91.9% 93.3% 94.1% 95.2% 95.3% 95.3% 95.1%
Vacancy Rate 7.7% 9.1% 8.1% 6.7% 5.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.9%
During 2015, the overall market vacancy rate declined to near 4%, according to
information published by Marcus & Millichap. The declining vacancy is a result of new
job formation and formation of households among millennials. Additions to the market are
likely to put some pressure on vacancy rates.
Initially, the increase in foreclosures and tightening credit policies of lenders helped
the apartment industry. This accompanied the significantly low number of units delivered
in 2009 to 2011. Both potential first-time homeowners and those who have lost homes have
strengthen apartment occupancy. Initially the unemployment rate negatively affected
occupancy and operations. As residents lost jobs, they were forced to break their leases.
This was most evident in Class B and lower-grade apartment communities.
During the past several years, there is evidence of a transition due to changing
consumer preferences among various demographic groups. Given the demand shifts from
owner-occupancy to rental occupancy in various categories, including young professionals
and empty-nesters, there has been an increased demand for apartment units, particularly in
the high-end properties. This led to a significant number of new units being constructed or
planned in core areas and areas near the Ohio State University.
Overall
Vacancy Multi-Family
Year Rate 1 Units2
Sources
1
ARA
2
US Census Bureau- 5 or more units
Included in this number are condominium units. The actual number of new
apartment units built during the single-family and condominium housing boom was near
zero. However, the Columbus MSA has realized a significant increase in multifamily
development as developers look to capitalize on rising rental rates and occupancy. Since
2002, the Columbus MSA realized the most 5+ unit building permits in 2013. A significant
number of new properties were delivered during 2013, 2014 and 2015.
Sites zoned for apartment development had become scarce. Former condominium
and commercial sites have been converted to apartment development where possible. Sites
rezoned for apartment development also have seen an increase.
The greatest concentration of new construction is planned for the central area,
northwest and northeast submarkets. The northwest and northeast submarkets have the
greatest amount of land available for apartment development, as well as the greatest
population growth.
The following charts identify recent and proposed construction. The charts may not
include all developments.
Columbus MSA Multifamily Development
Under Construction
Edwards/South Gateway Edwards South Gateway 144 Start spring 2016
Leveque Tower CBD 70 Scheduled Completion 2016
View on High/N.High & 20th Celmark/Solove Campus 50 Completion scheduled 2016
View on Fifth Celmark/Solove Fifth 153 Completion scheduled 2016
Damiler/Kauffman Kaufman River South 156 Planning
Barrett School Merion Village 52 Available summery 2016
Battery B JDS Companies Italian Village 56 Under construction
The Jerome (Borror) Borror Victorian Village 54 Complete summer 2016
40 West Borror Italian Village 16 Leasing
Neighborhood Launch CBD 130 Near completion
Microliving on Fourth Connect Realty CBD 52 Under construction
Annex II/Trautman Building Lifestyle CBD 105 Under construction
85-111 N. High Edwards CBD 241 Under construction
Grandview Yard Brooks Building Nationwide Realty Grandview 166 Under construction
144 W. Lane (student) Edwards Campus 45 Under construction
Other factors affecting the central multifamily area are the number and quality of
new jobs being created. The proposed and recently completed projects are asking rental
rates of up to $2.00+ per square foot for some units. Such pricing removes a significant
number of would-be renters from of the central submarket. Another long-term factor is the
potential return of home ownership. As renters analyze renting versus home ownership, the
rental payments of the central submarket units will allow a renter/buyer to purchase a
quality home/condo in the Columbus MSA.
Rents
Rents during the past year have increased in all market sectors. The rents do not
reflect the effect of any concessions. The greatest rental rates are in the central, northwest
and northeast sectors. The west and east sectors continue to have the lowest rental rates.
The central area demonstrates the recent interest and planning of developers to target this
area. The following chart shows a breakdown by submarket.
Submarket June-09 December-09 October-10 May-11 December-11 August-12 July-13 July-14 February-15
Northwest $776 $786 $797 $825 $828 $864 $896 $915 $919
Northeast $673 $677 $683 $695 $709 $728 $747 $779 $799
East $600 $600 $605 $614 $625 $644 $655 $662 $677
West $585 $590 $584 $586 $621 $629 $660 $668 $661
Central NA NA NA NA $961 $978 $1,119 $1,195 $1,241
Most sales in 2009 and 2010 were REO or lender-directed sales. A significant
number of lenders finally disposed of REO and distressed Class C assets that were
purchased at premium prices (2005 to 2008) or have been mismanaged during the
economic decline. The lack of stabilized Class A or B sales prior to 2012 is attributed to
the increases in rents and occupancy, as investors were not willing to sell stabilized
properties without a significant premium. Multifamily real estate represents one of the most
stable commercial real estate or alternative investments over the past years, and investors
continue to look to multifamily assets for the future.
Brokers indicate that investors are looking to capitalize on the significant interest
in Class A and B multifamily properties from institutional investors. Institutional investors
have looked to stabilized multifamily properties to park cash and chase yield. The
following chart illustrates the change in safe investments. This is creating a bubble in Class
A assets, as large institutional investors have significant purchasing power due to the low
required rate of return and interest rates available. The number of potential buyers has
increased, which has driven up prices.
The following chart summarizes the number of sales and average sales prices since
2010. The average sales prices have increased over the years as fewer distressed properties
have been sold. There were a number of sales that were confidential with no price recorded.
2010 95 $18,473
2011 132 $28,960
2012 193 $33,901
2013 134 $30,320
2014 172 $42,723
2015 148 $39,328
Buyers are seeking elevated yields particularly in Class C assets. To obtain higher
yields, investors have focused on outlying neighborhoods where average returns can top
more the 200 basis points above the metro average in the mid 7% range. Some investors
have targeted value-add properties near new construction in the northeast portions of the
downtown area. Higher yields have led investors to Midwestern locations such as
Columbus.
An issue that has affected the multifamily sector is the number of vacant single-
family homes and condominiums that either were foreclosures or never sold to owner-
occupants. The effect of this shadow market has influenced apartments as developers
rent the homes and condominiums. Improvement has occurred in this market as home and
condominium sales have increased in the past several years.
Real estate taxes have also had a significant impact on the multifamily sector, as
the effective tax rates have increased significantly over the past five years. The following
chart illustrates the increase in real estate taxes rates districts that have experienced
multifamily development or are targeted for future development have incurred. Investors
have expressed frustration with current real estate tax bills and the assessed value of their
properties. However, the increase in the effective tax rate is a major factor, along with the
assessed value.
No. District 2011 pay 2012 2012 pay 2013 2013 pay 2014 2014 pay 2015 2015 pay 2016 Difference 2011-2015 % Change
The central area will continue to be the most closely watched area for multifamily
development, as there were a number of prominent projects that delivered inventory in over
the past several years. Numerous additional units are planned or under construction. With
a significant number of projects still in the planning stages, the demand of the central area
multifamily could be fulfilled by the time the later projects are completed and attempt to
reach stabilization.
Company News
Ohio Real Estate Consultants, Inc. is an OHFA (Ohio Housing Finance Agency) - Certified
Appraisal Provider. We are one of eight firms achieving this status state-wide and one of
three local firms. More information can be found on the OHFA website at
http://ohiohome.org/mflending/default.aspx.
We hope you found this newsletter information useful. We got away from sending our
newsletter last year, but are bringing it back due to the number of requests. In the upcoming
months, we will be covering the Apartment, Office and Industrial sectors, along with other
topics. If you would like additional information, please visit our website at
www.ohiorealestate.org or call us at 800-536-0038.