800-121 Food for a Healthy Planet

Climate change and global

food security
Professor Snow Barlow, ATSE,FAIAST
Impacts of climate change on
global food security

2 Lectures
Feeding a hungry planet
Impacts of climate change on global
food production

Contact
s.barlow@unimelb.edu.au
 Rising Global Food Prices

United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization(FAO) Food Price Index

A basket of 5 food commodities

(FAO 2014)
 What is driving this ?
Mega Trends for Global Food Security

Global Population-9+ billion by 2050

Urbanization/Wealth-4 times by 2050

Dietary demands for more animal protein-

2-8 times more grain required

Competition for farm land

Urbanization
Biofuels-20% of farmland by 2050

Availability of fresh water

Agriculture 60-70% of global consumptive water use (lecture 2)

Climate Change
2C+ warming by 2050 (lecture 2 )
 Population
we have been here before !
Have we enough food for
the future ?
Malthus Club of Rome FAO
A consideration for the past 2
centuries since the industrial
revolution

Famine has sparked great

migrations Irish
Potato famine of 1800s
Arab spring

Doomsday predictions

Thomas Malthus
Club of Rome
Current United Nations
Food and Agricultural
Organisation FAO
 Animal Protein Demand
1400
Animal protein intake (Kcals/capita/day)

1200

1000

Australia
China
800

600

Japan

400

India
200

Indonesia

0
$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000

GDP per capita ($ ppp )

Australian Farm Institute
Global Commodity Demand

(Linehan V ,et al 2012)

(Linehan V ,et al 2012)

 Biofuels
First Generation (Food) Biofuel Production Increases

Biodiesel (canola) and Ethanol ( sugarcane and corn ) produced on prime agricultural
land that otherwise would produce food
 We have been here before
Thomas Malthus (1766-1834)
Essay on the Principle of Population (1798)

subsistence severely limits population-level

when the means of subsistence increases,
population increases
population-pressures stimulate increases in
productivity
increases in productivity stimulate further
population-growth
since this productivity can not keep up with the
potential of population growth for long,
population requires strong checks to keep it in
line with carrying-capacity

Thomas Malthus Malthuss views on subsistence and population growth

(1766-1834) greatly influenced Darwin in his development of
Political economist his evolution theory
 We have been here before
Club of Rome(1968-
The Club of Rome was founded in April 1968 by Aurelio Peccei, an Italian industrialist,
and Alexander King, a Scottish scientist

The Club of Rome raised considerable public attention with

its report Limits to Growth, which has sold 30 million
copies in more than 30 translations, making it the best
selling environmental book in world history

Whilst the book did not predict what precisely would

happen, it stated that if the world's consumption patterns
and population growth continued at the same high rates of
the time, the earth would strike its limits within a century.
The message was that this outcome was not inevitable.
People could change their policies - and the sooner the
better.

The Club of Rome is a global think tank and centre of innovation and initiative.
It brings together scientists, economists, businessmen, international high civil
servants, heads of state and former heads of state.
 Global Grain Stores
lowest levels since start of the green revolution
Total World Grains Supply days

Green Revolution
Days of supply

Days of grain supply is a measure of available food in the world because

cereal grain are the major component of global food supply
 The Green Revolution

US for International Development Agency term

to describe program to address global food
security

International aid program to assist developing

countries to improve food production by using
New crop cultivars
Irrigation
Fertilizers
Pesticides
Mechanization
 Father of the Green Revolution

Dr Norman Borlaug

US Plant Breeder
Joined Rockefeller Foundation -1944
Assigned to the the International Wheat and Maize Improvement
Centre (CIMMYT) in Mexico
Led the production of new high yielding varieties of wheat and corn
Awarded in the Nobel Peace Prize in 1970
Green Revolu+on Increased Wheat Yields
5 +mes in 30 years
 Green revolution increased food production
but increased Nitrogen(N),Phosphorus(P) ,Water use

Global popula)on doubled (x2) between 1960 and 1990 ( 3 to 6 Billion)

Global food produc)on tripled (x3) in this period

N fertiliser

No fertiliser

The green revolu,on did

achieve food suciency
with gene,cs and higher
inputs
The Globe needs to double food production
by 2050
 Can we do it again ?
double food production by 2050

Doubling food production by 2050 -3 components

Population
Dietary changes
Biofuel competition

Strong doubts about

Availability of extra land
Availability of extra water
Possibility of achieving extra productivity increases
Sustainability of using more fertilizers and pesticides
 The next revolution must be greener
Sustainable Intensification

Food security must be achieved in a

carbon strained world
Food production can be carbon intensive
Animal protein can be carbon intensive
Cows x 8
Pigs x 4
Chickens x1.5
Water is also a potential limiting factor
60% worlds food comes from irrigated
agriculture
Agriculture uses 60-70% of available fresh water
Worlds agricultural water resources are under
pressure from climate change
 Land component of Green Revolution

Land, water and fertilizer as well as productivity increases (TFP) important to Green
Revolution success
Resources for the next greener revolution
Can Northern Australia Contribute ?
 The Productivity Challenge
Annual Productivity gains necessary to meet rising demand
1979-88 = 1.5% 1988-97 = 1.6% 1997-06 = 1.9% 2006-15=2.6%

Biofuel Demand

Animal Feed Demand

Human Food Demand

Annual productivity gains have declined
 Green Revolu)on Slows
Global Rice Yield (1961-2010)

Average yield (t ha-1) Average yearly increase over

previous 10 years (kg ha-1)
5.0 200

4.0 160

3.0 120

2.0 80

1.0 40

0.0 0
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Year

Dr R Zeigler IRRI-2010 WPQ

 Produc)vity gains are biologically feasible
If we work on the whole produc=on system

(Kirkegaard JA, and Hunt JR, 2010)

((((Kirkegaard JA, and Hunt JR, 2010

 There are productivity gains yet to be
achieved ??
tonnes per hectare
Maize yield

Productivity gains can be achieved through science and technology

Potential in developing countries to follow in time
Local production systems important
 Nutritional Quality can also be improved
Vitamin A

Doubling vitamin-A
consumption among those most at risk of deficiency and its
devastating
consequences
 Lecture Summary

Global food demands are complex beyond

just population- lifestyle important
Feeding the globe by 2050 is not impossible
The next Greener revolution must be less
resource intensive and more sustainable
Solutions to this challenge have to be
addressed a number of levels
Food Production and storage
Food Access
Food Quality