Latest
Jose Briefing
Decision Support Briefing 9
As of: 5:30 pm Tue. Sep. 19, 2017
Insert picture of hazard. If
more space is needed for
the What Has Changed What Has Changed?
section can be omitted.
As Jose moves slowly north toward the
area, there are no significant forecast
changes with this updated briefing.
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Main Points
Hazard Impacts Location Timing
Rip Currents Rip Current Risk into
Dangerous surf and strong Rip Currents;
the weekend
High Surf Widespread dune erosion and wash-
Atlantic Ocean Beaches High Surf - into
overs during high tides thru Wed.
Beach Erosion Thursday
30 to 40% chance of tropical storm force
winds of 39-57 mph across Suffolk
Highest impacts along
County, NY; 20 to 30% CT and Nassau
the Twin Forks with less
County.
Wind impact elsewhere, Through Wed. Aftn.
limited mainly to coastal
Scattered power outages possible
locations
caused by downed tree limbs and some
downed trees
0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain may cause minor Eastern Long Island and
Rain flooding of low lying and poor drainage southeast CT. Lower Through Wed. Aftn
areas amounts elsewhere.
Atlantic Ocean coastal
waters south of Long
Marine Tropical Storm Warning for 34 kt winds
Island
Through Wed. Aftn.
South shore bays of
Coastal Flood Warning and Advisory for NYC, Nassau County, all Around the times of
Coastal Flooding widespread minor to moderate flooding. shores of Suffolk high tides through the
County except NW day Wednesday.
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Summary of Greatest Impacts
Beach/Inundation: South Shore NYC/LI + Twin Forks
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Wind: Highest Eastern Long Island Note:
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Hazard impact level
definitions can be
Flooding Rain: Far Eastern Long Island and SE CT found on our
Hurricane Threats
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme and Impacts Page
http://www.weathe
r.gov/srh/tropical?of
Tornado: fice=okx#hti
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Marine: Atlantic Ocean Coastal Waters
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
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Tropical Cyclone Jose
5 pm NHC Forecast Advisory
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depicting Category 1 Hurricane
forecast to slowly weaken
Hazard and/or as it passes southeast of
Impacts Long Island on Wednesday
as a Tropical Storm.
Wind and surge impacts will
be felt well outside the
cone.
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Surge/Inundation Hazard and Impacts
Surge/Inundation Threat:
Minor to Moderate Coastal Flooding around the times of high tides through Wednesday
Coastal Flood Warning through Wednesday for portions of the south shores of NYC, Nassau
County, and all shores of Suffolk County except NW adjacent to the Sound.
Maximum inundation up to around 2 feet Above Ground Level for Warned Areas
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Rainfall Forecast
Insert Graphic Rain Threat:
Sharp west to east gradient of
depicting rainfall based on storm track;
1/2 to 1 inch across far Eastern
Hazard and/or Long Island and SE CT; Less
than 1/2 inch elsewhere.
Impacts
Timing:
Heaviest rain through this
evening; Ponding of water in low
lying and poor drainage areas
possible.
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Wind Hazard and Impacts
5 pm NHC Forecast Advisory
Tropical Wind Threat:
Highest Chance of Tropical Storm
force winds across far Eastern
Long Island.
Timing:
IF Jose maintains its track, tropical
storm force winds possible through
Wednesday morning.
Impacts:
Minor damage to trees with
possible scattered power
outages; damage most likely
over far Eastern Long Island.
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Forecast Uncertainties or Scenarios
IF Jose moves further east or weakens more quickly than forecast, all
impacts (wind, rain, and coastal flooding) will be less.
IF Jose moves further west than forecast, tropical storm force winds,
heavier rain and more significant coastal flooding will spread further
west.
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Event Summary
Prepare for multiple rounds of coastal flooding around the times
of high tide through Wednesday.
The most significant impacts will occur along and around the south and
eastern shores of NYC and Long Island through Wednesday.
The strongest winds and heaviest rain are forecast across Eastern
Long Island.
Small Craft Should Remain in Port as Tropical Storm Warnings are
now in effect across the Atlantic Ocean Coastal Waters South of Long
Island.
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