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Lt2 - Iev - Ecsy Cola

The document contains financial projections for a new business venture under nominal, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios. It includes projections for sales volume, revenue, costs, profit, taxes, and cash flow from 2013 to 2020. The nominal scenario results in a net present value of -$63,600, while the optimistic scenario yields an NPV of $2,415,800 and the pessimistic scenario an NPV of -$2,543,000. The analysis suggests the venture may be profitable under an optimistic outlook but loss-making under pessimistic assumptions based on variations to key factors like sales volume and costs.

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Marcus McWile Morningstar
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1K views11 pages

Lt2 - Iev - Ecsy Cola

The document contains financial projections for a new business venture under nominal, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios. It includes projections for sales volume, revenue, costs, profit, taxes, and cash flow from 2013 to 2020. The nominal scenario results in a net present value of -$63,600, while the optimistic scenario yields an NPV of $2,415,800 and the pessimistic scenario an NPV of -$2,543,000. The analysis suggests the venture may be profitable under an optimistic outlook but loss-making under pessimistic assumptions based on variations to key factors like sales volume and costs.

Uploaded by

Marcus McWile Morningstar
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 11

NOMINAL OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC REMARKS

Factor 0.00% 10.00% -10.00%


Initial Outlay $20,000,000.00 $20,000,000.00 $20,000,000.00
Fixed Cost $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 per year
Varible Cost $0.12 $0.12 $0.12 per liter
Rate of Return 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% (nominal)
Sales Revenue forecast $0.35 $0.35 $0.35 per liter
Tax 30.00% 30.00% 30.00%
Depreciation 4.00 4.00 4.00 years
Initial Sales Volume 12,500,000.00 13,750,000.00 11,250,000.00 liters
NPV -$63,600.00 $2,415,800.00 -$2,543,000.00 Sensitivity

ECSY COLAStatement
Income (NOMINAL)
From 2013 to 2016
2013 2014 2015 2016
Liters Sold 0.00 12,500,000.00 25,000,000.00 50,000,000.00
Sales $0.00 $4,375,000.00 $8,750,000.00 $17,500,000.00
Variable Costs $0.00 $1,500,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $6,000,000.00
Gross Profit $0.00 $2,875,000.00 $5,750,000.00 ###
Fixed Costs $0.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00
EBITDA $0.00 -$125,000.00 $2,750,000.00 $8,500,000.00
Taxes (w/o Depreciation) $0.00 -$37,500.00 $825,000.00 $2,550,000.00
EBITDA - Taxes $0.00 -$87,500.00 $1,925,000.00 $5,950,000.00
Depreciation 0 $5,000,000.00 $5,000,000.00 $5,000,000.00
EBIT
Taxes (Operating
(With Profit) $0.00 -$5,125,000.00 -$2,250,000.00 $3,500,000.00
Depreciation) $0.00 -$1,537,500.00 -$675,000.00 $1,050,000.00
EBIT - Taxes $0.00 -$3,587,500.00 -$1,575,000.00 $2,450,000.00

ECSYFree
COLA (NOMINAL)
Cash Flow
From 2013 to 2016
2013 2014 2015 2016

EBITDA $0.00 -$125,000.00 $2,750,000.00 $8,500,000.00


Taxes $0.00 -$1,537,500.00 -$675,000.00 $1,050,000.00
Investment $20,000,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Net
Net Cash
Cash Flow
Flow ### $1,412,500.00 $3,425,000.00 $7,450,000.00
(Perpetuity) ### $1,412,500.00 $3,425,000.00 $7,450,000.00
NPV -$63,600.00
ECSY COLA (OPTIMISTIC)
Income Statement
From 2013 to 2016
2013 2014 2015 2016
Liters Sold 0.00 13,750,000.00 27,500,000.00 55,000,000.00
Sales $0.00 $4,812,500.00 $9,625,000.00 $19,250,000.00
Variable Costs $0.00 $1,650,000.00 $3,300,000.00 $6,600,000.00
Gross Profit $0.00 $3,162,500.00 $6,325,000.00 ###
Fixed Costs $0.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00
EBITDA $0.00 $162,500.00 $3,325,000.00 $9,650,000.00
Taxes (w/o Depreciation) $0.00 $48,750.00 $997,500.00 $2,895,000.00
EBITDA - Taxes $0.00 $113,750.00 $2,327,500.00 $6,755,000.00
Depreciation 0 $5,000,000.00 $5,000,000.00 $5,000,000.00
EBIT
Taxes (Operating
(With Profit) $0.00 -$4,837,500.00 -$1,675,000.00 $4,650,000.00
Depreciation) $0.00 -$1,451,250.00 -$502,500.00 $1,395,000.00
EBIT - Taxes $0.00 -$3,386,250.00 -$1,172,500.00 $3,255,000.00

ECSY Free
COLACash
(OPTIMISTIC)
Flow
From 2013 to 2016
2013 2014 2015 2016

EBITDA $0.00 $162,500.00 $3,325,000.00 $9,650,000.00


Taxes $0.00 -$1,451,250.00 -$502,500.00 $1,395,000.00
Investment $20,000,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Net
Net Cash
Cash Flow
Flow ### $1,613,750.00 $3,827,500.00 $8,255,000.00
(Perpetuity) ### $1,613,750.00 $3,827,500.00 $8,255,000.00
NPV $2,415,800.00

ECSY COLA (PESSIMISTIC)


Income Statement
From 2013 to 2016
2013 2014 2015 2016
Liters Sold 0.00 11,250,000.00 22,500,000.00 45,000,000.00
Sales $0.00 $3,937,500.00 $7,875,000.00 $15,750,000.00
Variable Costs $0.00 $1,350,000.00 $2,700,000.00 $5,400,000.00
Gross Profit $0.00 $2,587,500.00 $5,175,000.00 ###
Fixed Costs $0.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00
EBITDA $0.00 -$412,500.00 $2,175,000.00 $7,350,000.00
Taxes (w/o Depreciation) $0.00 -$123,750.00 $652,500.00 $2,205,000.00
EBITDA - Taxes $0.00 -$288,750.00 $1,522,500.00 $5,145,000.00
Depreciation 0 $5,000,000.00 $5,000,000.00 $5,000,000.00
EBIT
Taxes (Operating
(With Profit) $0.00 -$5,412,500.00 -$2,825,000.00 $2,350,000.00
Depreciation) $0.00 -$1,623,750.00 -$847,500.00 $705,000.00
EBIT - Taxes $0.00 -$3,788,750.00 -$1,977,500.00 $1,645,000.00

ECSY Free
COLACash
(PESSIMISTIC)
Flow
From 2013 to 2016
2013 2014 2015 2016

EBITDA $0.00 -$412,500.00 $2,175,000.00 $7,350,000.00


Taxes $0.00 -$1,623,750.00 -$847,500.00 $705,000.00
Investment $20,000,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Net
Net Cash
Cash Flow
Flow ### $1,211,250.00 $3,022,500.00 $6,645,000.00
(Perpetuity) ### $1,211,250.00 $3,022,500.00 $6,645,000.00
NPV -$2,543,000.00
per percent
$247,940.00 change in sales

OMINAL)
ement
o 2016
2017 2018 2019 2020
50,000,000.00 50,000,000.00 50,000,000.00 50,000,000.00
$17,500,000.00 $17,500,000.00 $17,500,000.00 $17,500,000.00
$6,000,000.00 $6,000,000.00 $6,000,000.00 $6,000,000.00
### ### ### ###
$3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00
$8,500,000.00 $8,500,000.00 $8,500,000.00 $8,500,000.00
$2,550,000.00 $2,550,000.00 $2,550,000.00 $2,550,000.00
$5,950,000.00 $5,950,000.00 $5,950,000.00 $5,950,000.00
$5,000,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$3,500,000.00 $8,500,000.00 $8,500,000.00 $8,500,000.00
$1,050,000.00 $2,550,000.00 $2,550,000.00 $2,550,000.00
$2,450,000.00 $5,950,000.00 $5,950,000.00 $5,950,000.00

OMINAL)
Flow
o 2016
2017 2018 2019 2020

$8,500,000.00 $8,500,000.00 $8,500,000.00 $8,500,000.00


$1,050,000.00 $2,550,000.00 $2,550,000.00 $2,550,000.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$7,450,000.00 $5,950,000.00 $5,950,000.00 $5,950,000.00
$7,450,000.00 ###
TIMISTIC)
ement
o 2016
2017 2018 2019 2020
55,000,000.00 55,000,000.00 55,000,000.00 55,000,000.00
$19,250,000.00 $19,250,000.00 $19,250,000.00 $19,250,000.00
$6,600,000.00 $6,600,000.00 $6,600,000.00 $6,600,000.00
### ### ### ###
$3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00
$9,650,000.00 $9,650,000.00 $9,650,000.00 $9,650,000.00
$2,895,000.00 $2,895,000.00 $2,895,000.00 $2,895,000.00
$6,755,000.00 $6,755,000.00 $6,755,000.00 $6,755,000.00
$5,000,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$4,650,000.00 $9,650,000.00 $9,650,000.00 $9,650,000.00
$1,395,000.00 $2,895,000.00 $2,895,000.00 $2,895,000.00
$3,255,000.00 $6,755,000.00 $6,755,000.00 $6,755,000.00

TIMISTIC)
Flow
o 2016
2017 2018 2019 2020

$9,650,000.00 $9,650,000.00 $9,650,000.00 $9,650,000.00


$1,395,000.00 $2,895,000.00 $2,895,000.00 $2,895,000.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$8,255,000.00 $6,755,000.00 $6,755,000.00 $6,755,000.00
$8,255,000.00 ###

SIMISTIC)
ement
o 2016
2017 2018 2019 2020
45,000,000.00 45,000,000.00 45,000,000.00 45,000,000.00
$15,750,000.00 $15,750,000.00 $15,750,000.00 $15,750,000.00
$5,400,000.00 $5,400,000.00 $5,400,000.00 $5,400,000.00
### ### ### ###
$3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00
$7,350,000.00 $7,350,000.00 $7,350,000.00 $7,350,000.00
$2,205,000.00 $2,205,000.00 $2,205,000.00 $2,205,000.00
$5,145,000.00 $5,145,000.00 $5,145,000.00 $5,145,000.00
$5,000,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$2,350,000.00 $7,350,000.00 $7,350,000.00 $7,350,000.00
$705,000.00 $2,205,000.00 $2,205,000.00 $2,205,000.00
$1,645,000.00 $5,145,000.00 $5,145,000.00 $5,145,000.00

SIMISTIC)
Flow
o 2016
2017 2018 2019 2020

$7,350,000.00 $7,350,000.00 $7,350,000.00 $7,350,000.00


$705,000.00 $2,205,000.00 $2,205,000.00 $2,205,000.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$6,645,000.00 $5,145,000.00 $5,145,000.00 $5,145,000.00
$6,645,000.00 ###
Year 0 1 2 3
Investment 20
Sales(liters) 12.5 25 50
Revenue $4.38 $8.75 $17.50
Variable Costs $1.50 $3.00 $6.00
Fixed Costs $3.00 $3.00 $3.00
Operating Income -$0.13 $2.75 $8.50
Amortizations $5.00 $5.00 $5.00
Tax -$0.04 $0.83 $2.55
Depreciation Tax Shield $1.50 $1.50 $1.50
Operating income - Tax -$0.09 $1.93 $5.95
Operating Income- Tax + DTS -20 $1.41 $3.43 $7.45

@15% -20 $1.41 $3.43 $7.45


$15.66
@25% -20 $1.41 $3.43 $7.45
-$0.06
4 5 6

50 50 50 Initial Outlay $20.00


$17.50 $17.50 $17.50 Fixed Cost $3.00
$6.00 $6.00 $6.00 Varible Cost $0.12
$3.00 $3.00 $3.00 Rate
Salesof Return
Revenue $0.25
$8.50 $8.50 $8.50 forecast $0.35
$5.00 Tax 30.00%
$2.55 $2.55 $2.55 Depreciation 4
$1.50
$5.95 $5.95 $5.95
$7.45 $5.95 $5.95
$39.67
$7.45 $45.62
$23.80
$7.45 $29.75
per year
per liter
(nominal)
per liter

years
0 1 2 3 4
Investment $20,000,000.00
Tax Dep $5,000,000.00
Dep tax shield $1,500,000.00

Liters Sold 0.00 12,500,000.00 25,000,000.00 50,000,000.00


Revenues $0.00 $4,375,000.00 $8,750,000.00 $17,500,000.00
Variable Costs $0.00 $1,500,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $6,000,000.00
Fixed Costs $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00
Operating Cashflow -$3,000,000.00 -$125,000.00 $2,750,000.00 $8,500,000.00
Tax
Operating Cash -$900,000.00 -$37,500.00 $825,000.00 $2,550,000.00
flow (after tax) -$2,100,000.00 -$87,500.00 $1,925,000.00 $5,950,000.00
Tax Shield $1,500,000.00 $1,500,000.00 $1,500,000.00 $1,500,000.00
Net Cash Flow ### -$600,000.00 $1,412,500.00 $3,425,000.00 $7,450,000.00
Net Cash flow with
Perpetuity ### -$600,000.00 $1,412,500.00 $3,425,000.00 $7,450,000.00
NPV -$5,022,400.00 -$480,000.00
GIVEN
Initial Outlay $20,000,000.00
Fixed Cost $3,000,000.00 per year
Varible Cost $0.12 per liter
Rate of Return 25.00% (nominal)
50,000,000.00 50,000,000.00 Sales Revenue forecast $0.35 per liter
$17,500,000.00 $17,500,000.00 Tax 30.00%
$6,000,000.00 $6,000,000.00 Depreciation 4 years
$3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 1st L sold 12500000
$8,500,000.00 $8,500,000.00
$2,550,000.00 $2,550,000.00
$5,950,000.00 $5,950,000.00 VARIABLE
Discount Rate 0.25
$5,950,000.00 $5,950,000.00 Percentage cut on sale 0
$23,800,000.00 Delayed 1 year (y or n) y
$29,750,000.00

breakeven point 34.5042006 15% RoR


cut on sale

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