Strong Coastal Storm to Impact the
Region into Saturday
Decision Support Briefing
As of: 3:30 PM Wednesday
February 28, 2018
What has changed?
• High Wind Watch issued for
Coastal Areas
• Flood Watch Issued for entire
Area
• Storm Watches around Long
Island Watches for the Tri-State Area
For Friday and Friday Night
Weather
WeatherForecast
ForecastOffice
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Main Points
Hazard Impacts Location Timing
Significant flooding of shore
roads/severe beach erosion. Southern and Eastern bays of
Major coastal flooding Long Island, Jamaica Bay, and the Late Friday morning, Friday
Coastal Atlantic Ocean beachfront. Tidal
possible, which may result in night and Saturday high tide
Flooding some property damage and Departures of 1.5 to 2.5 ft Friday cycles.
flood areas that are not usually and 2 to 3 ft on Saturday
impacted.
7 to 15 foot seas across the
eastern waters possible with
Marine NE wind gusts of 50-55 knots. All Coastal Waters. Friday into Saturday morning.
Dangerous/life threatening
storm for mariners.
Damaging Tree damage and widespread NYC metro, Long Island, and
Friday and Friday night
Winds power outages possible coastal southern CT
Heavy Rain/ Heavy Rain with urban/poor
drainage street flooding threat.
Fresh Water
A few rivers/small streams may Entire Region Friday perhaps into Saturday.
Urban approach or exceed flood
Flooding. stage but low confidence.
Rain May Rain may change to wet snow
Greatest Risk Interior Lower
in some locations but low
Change to confidence. Accumulations
Hudson Valley and Northeast Friday into Saturday.
Weather Forecast Office
NJ Presentation Created
Wet Snow.
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Summary of Greatest Impacts
Hazard 1: Marine: Life Threatening Storm For Mariners
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Hazard 2: Significant Coastal Flooding/Beach Erosion LI
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Hazard 3: Wind Damage: Highest Risk Eastern LI
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Hazard 4: Fresh Water Flooding: Entire Region
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Hazard 5: Wet Snow Low Confidence: Greatest Risk High Terrain NW
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
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Maximum Wind Gusts to 60 MPH across
Long Island and adjacent Coastal Waters
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Uncertainty and Scenarios
Magnitude of the Coastal Flooding Highly
dependent on track and intensity of the low
Track further north or east would reduce impacts
Track further south will prolong northeast flow and
subsequent impacts with multiple tidal cycles
A more rapid intensification may turn rain
over to snow in higher terrain of NE NJ and
the lower Hudson Valley quicker
Snow amounts could be several inches higher than
forecast in this case
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Threat Event Summary
Confidence: High in at least moderate coastal flooding/beach erosion due to
moderate potential for several tidal cycles of moderate coastal impacts. There
is a low probability for localized major coastal flooding.
Damaging wind gusts and fresh water flooding from heavy rain also possible
Greatest uncertainty is if rain eventually changes to wet snow in areas
northwest of NYC.
Significant coastal Damaging wind gusts near 60
What: MPH may result in tree damage
flooding/beach erosion
across South/East bays of LI, and power outages. Highest
Jamaica Bay and Atlantic risk: coastal areas.
coast.
Rain may change to wet snow
Heavy Rain potentially in some locations. Greatest
resulting in urban/street risk: high terrain. Any
flooding. accumulations highly uncertain.
When: Long duration storm Thursday night into Saturday.
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Contact and Next Briefing Information
Next Briefing
Insert picture of office When: 5 am, Thursday, March 1st Insert image of
Method: via email briefing domain
Briefing Webpage:
http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter
Web: Facebook:
http://www.weather.gov/okx/ http://www.facebook.com/NWSNewYorkNY
Phone (public): Twitter:
631-924-0517 http://www.twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY
YouTube:
E-mail: https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSNewYor
okx.operations@noaa.gov kNY
Disclaimer: The information contained within this briefing
is time-sensitive, do not use after 5 am Thursday, March 1, 2018
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