Economy: 2009 Long Island Index E
Economy: 2009 Long Island Index E
Economy
Indicator:
Gross Metropolitan Product/Gross Domestic Product
Long Island’s economy may be at the beginning of stagnation.
Why is this important?
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of the extent of economic activity within a defined geo-
graphical region or within a sector of a defined economic region. When referencing a defined metropolitan
area it is sometimes referred to as the Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP). Essentially the GDP/GMP
measures the economic output of a region and can be used to compare overall economic activities across
regions, or the contributions of various sectors.
0
0 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 '07 '08 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08
8 $140 8%
US
7 120 7
In Billions, 2007 Dollars
6 100 6
Annual Growth
Long Island
5 80 5
4 4
60
3 3
40
2 2
1 20 1
0 0 0
a99 a00 a01 a02 a03 a04 ’98 ’99
a05 a06 a07 ’00a08
’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08
1,000 The total private sector GDP for Long Island in 2008 was about $129 billion. This was up only from $128
1200
billion
8%
in 2007. Overall, Long Island’s private sector1000
of the economy has grown by 32% from 1998 to 2008.
800
US
Growth
7 has averaged about 3% per year. However, there
800 was greater growth earlier in the period and slower
600 growth more recently. Growth in GDP from 2004 to600 2008 has averaged about 2%. There was almost no
6
Annual Growth
Long Island
400 change
5 between 2007 and 2008 (growth of .08%). Significantly,
400 Long Island’s growth trails the U.S.
Private sector
200 4
200
What 3 does “2007 dollars” mean? Public sector
0 0 a99 a00 a01 a02 a03 a04 a05 a06 a07 a08
The
2 ’01purchasing
’99 ’00 ’02 ’03 ’04 power’05 ’06of’07a dollar
’08 changes over time. If the items we buy generally cost more today than
1
they did ten years ago, then one dollar today is worth less than a single dollar was back then. Therefore,
Public Sector Private Sector Changes side scale value
it0 is necessary to adjust for that in order to create a common scale when we compare dollar values (e.g.,
’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08
when comparing wages) over several years. By picking a single year as the standard (say, 2007), dollars
From 1999 to 2008, Private sector employment grew by 6%.
Public from Long Island
earlier
sector employment years
grew bycan “inflated” using theUnited
be15%.
almost States Price Index in order to estimate what those ear-
Consumer
Source:lier dollars would be able to buy in 2007. Similarly, dollars from later years can be “deflated” to what
Bureau of Labor Statistics; Hofstra University.
their purchasing power would have been in 2007. By converting all values to the same scale it is much
easierSource:
to detect the presence
Economy.com; or absence of any trends over time (e.g., are wages actually rising, falling or
Hofstra University.
remaining the same?).
1400 1,400
Employment in Thousands
1200 1,200
1000 1,000
800 800
600 600
400 400
Private sector
200 200
Public sector
0 a99 a00 a01 a02 a03 a04 a05 a06 a07 a08 0
’08 page 33 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08
A
1 1
0 0
a99 a00 a01 a02 a03 a04 a05 a06 a07 a08 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08
1,000 1200
50,000
1000
800
2007 Dollars
800
600 45,000
600
400
400 40,000
Private sector
200 200
Public sector
01 a02 a03 a04 a05 a06 a07 a080 0 35,000
a99 a00 a01 a02 a03 a04 a05 a06 a07 a08
’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08
fell 2.00
5%, while the U.S. figure rose 3%. In con-
stant 2007 dollars, average pay Retailper employeeBiomedical
Manufacturing
was1.50
$834 lower in 2008 than it was in 1999. Education
Finance and
Insurance
1.00
Information/Communication Construction
Services & Building Health
Regional Recreation Materials Services
0.50
Business Services
Transportation &
Freight Services
0
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
0
’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07
6
Employment Concentration, 2008 (Relative to U.S.)
2.00
Indicator: Retail
• Real incomes for households at the top 10%
Biomedical How to Read Thi
Manufacturing rose by 9%. Education
Household Income Distribution
1.50
Finance and
Higher concentration but decreasing Highe
number of employees numb
Household income for the top 10% continues Insurance • Median household income has been relatively QUA
and ex
1.00
to grow while the middle stagnatesInformation/Communication
and the stagnant. Lower concentration and decreasing Lower
Construction
Services & Building number of employees—“Worst” growin
bottom 10% declines. Regional Recreation Median household
Materials
Health
incomeServices
has declined relatively
Quadrant reflecting decline
0.50
steadily since 2003.
Business In constant 2007 dollars, the
Services
Why is this important? Transportation &
typical household of four earned 6% less in 2007
This measure shows how Long 0Island’s standard Freight Services
as compared to 2003.
of living among households at different
-30% income
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
page 35
’98 ’99 Island
’00 ’01 Island
’02 ’03 Island
’04 ’05 ’06Median
’07
Top 10% Median Bottom 10%
Employment Concentration, 2008 (Relative to U.S.) Source: 2007 Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey; Hofstra University.
2.00
Retail Biomedical How to Read This Chart
Manufacturing Education
1.50
Higher concentration but decreasing Higher concentration and growing
Finance and number of employees number of employees—“BEST”
Insurance QUADRANT reflecting growth
and expansion
Major1.00
Industrial Clusters in Long Island’s Economy, 2008 Lower concentration and decreasing Lower concentration but
Information/Communication Construction
Services & Building number of employees—“Worst” growing number of employees
Health Quadrant reflecting decline
Regional Recreation Materials Services
Employment Concentration, 2008 (Relative to U.S.)
0.50
2.00 Business Services
Transportation &
0
Freight Services
Retail Biomedical How to
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Manufacturing Education
1.50 Change in Employment, 2003-2008
Higher concentration but decrea
Finance and
Bubble size represents cluster’s employment concentration in Long Island’s economy.
number of employees
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Hofstra University.
Insurance
1.00
Information/Communication Construction Lower concentration and decrea
Services & Building number of employees—“Worst”
Health Quadrant reflecting decline
Regional Recreation Materials Services
0.50
Business Services
Transportation &
Freight Services
0
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Biomedical
Business Services
20
Increasing number of employees but Increasing number of employees
Construction & Building Materials lower wages and higher wages—“BEST”
-40
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 Biomedical
$70 $80 $90
-40
$0 $10 $20 $30 Comparison
$40 of Average
$50 Salary$60
and Change in Employment,
$70 $80 Long$90
Island
page 37
-40
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90
chart #8
chart #9
Total Venture Capital Investment in Long Island Firms,
Another way to view this data is to compare the average growth in wages with the average change in
1998-2007
employment. Again we see that growth is occurring in those industries where salaries are near the average
Investment in Millions, 2007 Dollars
$350 1.4%
Investment as Percent of U.S.
rms %
rather than in the higher paying clusters.
ADDITIONAL 1-3 300 1.2
For more 250
information on employment by occupations, see 1.0
Economy Indicators, at www.longislandindex.org.
VC Investment
ollars Invested
200 0.8
150 0.6
100 0.4
nts?
80% Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers/National Venture Capital Association MoneyTree™.
DABLE HOUSING
Report based on data from Thomson Reuters; Hofstra University.
OMY 60
40
20
0
’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08
Local residents have been deeply concerned about high local taxes in all recent
Long Island Index polls, but the level of concern about taxes and the economy
has risen in response to the bleak national economic outlook.
page 39
Page 40 | 2009 Long Island Index | Economy
can only invoke the statute for projects larger proposals and making awards for professional
than $100,000. services allow local governments to take into
account factors other than price in awarding con-
A series of additional phone calls made to other
tracts. Thus, for professional service contracts,
comparable suburban counties—Fairfax, VA,
localities are allowed to develop their own solici-
Fairfield, CT, Santa Clara, CA, Bergen, NJ—
tation and award criteria, which often incorporate
indicates that none of these regions use local
either an implicit or explicit local preference.
bidder preference laws. Further, a review of state
Typically this gives local professional service con-
laws using the Lexis-Nexis database found that 43
tractors, including architects and engineers, a
states do not provide for local preference for state-
competitive advantage over outside companies.
awarded contracts (New York State is included in
Since pricing is typically only one of the criteria
this group). Seven states allow local contractors to
considered in a professional services contract
have preference if they fall within certain guide-
award process, a specific local preference price
lines. The rationale for the types of local bidder
advantage threshold is not required, nor does it
preferences and the specific preference thresholds
appear to be commonly described in law. Hence,
vary widely across these states. Percentages vary
it is not possible to measure the impact of local
from 1% to 15% with the most common threshold
vendor preferences on these types of services.
being in the range of 5%.
Professional Services: Large contracts are also For more information on local bidder
awarded for professional services which are sub preference laws, see Economy Indicators, at
ject to competitive requirements set forth by each www.longislandindex.org.
local government. In general, the rules for soliciting
Regional Recreation
-5 0 15 20 25 30 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
5 10
Change in Employment, 2002-2007 Average Pay Per Cluster, Change in Employment,
2008, in Thousands 2003-2008
VC Investment
1.0 Dollars Invested 250 1.0
0.8 200 0.8
0.6 150 0.6
0.4 100 0.4
0.2 50 0.2
0.0 0 0
06 a07 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07
page 41
Page 42 | 2009 Long Island Index | Economy
0
ECONOMY 10-11
How are we doing? and 2007 (from $47 million down to $5 million).
Since 2002, venture capitalist investment in As a percent of total U.S. investment, the 2007
Long Island firms has ranged between a high amount represented only .02%.
NYSTAR Funds Awarded to Long Island, 2000-2007
of $47 million and a low of $5 million in 2007
Funds Awarded, in Millions (2007 Dollars)
20 Industrial/Energy,
80 Media and Entertainment, and
increase over the three years prior to 2007 (from
Software.
70
.08% to .17% of15total U.S. investment). However, 60
venture capital investment fell 89% between 2006 50
10 40
30
5 20
10
0 0
’00-’01 ’01-’02 ’02-’03 ’03-’04 ’04-’05 ’05-’06 ’06-’07
page 43