MARKET FEASIBILITY

STUDY
MARKET DESCRIPTION

Monoammonium phosphate has been one of the most important granular fertilizer for many
years. Its water soluble and dissolves rapidly in adequately moist soil. Monoammonium phosphate
can also be used in fire extinguishers that is commonly found in schools, offices and homes.
However, Philippines being an agricultural country, demand for Monoammonium phosphate is
solely focused on the fertilizer sector. The amount of demand for fertilizer is growing to meet the
demand for Philippines agricultural services. Also, as one of the top producers of rice, corn and
sugarcanes, Philippines uses various amounts of fertilizers to ensure the growth of the crops.

The amount of Monoammonium phosphate in demand is greater than the supply generated
worldwide, being in a continent which specializes in producing agricultural products, Asia alone
generates vast amounts of demand for fertilizers worldwide. Countries such as China, India and
United states are the leading consumers of these fertilizers.

Figure 1 Fertilizer utilization worldwide

The figure shows the international utilization of fertilizers, China uses 28% of all the
fertilizers worldwide while India and North America both uses 14% of the fertilizers.
 MARKET DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF MONOAMMONIUM PHOSPHATE
This section will show the historical and projected demand and supply for
Monoammonium Phosphate in order to determine the feasibility of monoammonium phosphate
for the next 10 years here in the Philippines

HISTORICAL DEMAND OF MONOAMMONIUM PHOSPHATE

The data presented below is the total derived demand during the past 10 years. The derived
data below is gathered using the cost of sales filed by the companies that uses Monoammonium
Phosphate as raw materials for their product. [Source: Security and Exchange Commission, 2006-
2015]

Table 1.1 Historical Demand data for Monoammonium Phosphate acid

YEAR HISTORICAL DEMAND (KG)
2006 125,409,615.65
2007 92,590,361.07
2008 43,782,708.94
2009 66,673,829.76
2010 96,734,206.52
2011 52,897,542.71
2012 64,181,879.21
2013 76,576,608.82
2014 85,650,198.65
2015 98,613,900.87

Historical Demand for MAP (Kg/Yr)

140,000,000.00
120,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
80,000,000.00
60,000,000.00
40,000,000.00
20,000,000.00
-
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

DEMAND (Kg/Yr)

Figure 1.1 Graphical representation of historical demand for Monoammonium Phosphate

HISTORICAL SUPPLY FOR MONOAMMONIUM PHOSPHATE
The data presented below is the total supply for Monoammonium Phosphate with added derived
data from different manufacturer and industries that manufactures Monoammonium Phosphate in
the Philippines.

Table 1.2 Historical supply data for Monoammonium Phosphate

YEAR HISTORICAL SUPPLY (KG)
2006 94,439,823.00
2007 41,117,493.00
2008 26,371,430.00
2009 4,903,042.00
2010 1,464,173.00
2011 655,750.00
2012 45,604,401.00
2013 12,350,104.00
2014 22,268,032.00
2015 2,347,745.00

HISTORICAL SUPPLY OF MAP (Kg/Yr)

100,000,000.00
90,000,000.00
80,000,000.00
70,000,000.00
60,000,000.00
50,000,000.00
40,000,000.00
30,000,000.00
20,000,000.00
10,000,000.00
-
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

SUPPLY (Kg/Yr)

Figure 1.2 Graphical representation for historical supply data of Monoammonium Phosphate
 Table 1.3 Historical Supply and Demand of Monoammonium Phosphate
YEAR HISTORICAL DEMAND HISTORICAL
(KG) SUPPLY (KG)
2006 125,409,615.65 94,439,823.00
2007 92,590,361.07 41,117,493.00
2008 43,782,708.94 26,371,430.00
2009 66,673,829.76 4,903,042.00
2010 96,734,206.52 1,464,173.00
2011 52,897,542.71 655,750.00
2012 64,181,879.21 45,604,401.00
2013 76,576,608.82 12,350,104.00
2014 85,650,198.65 22,268,032.00
2015 98,613,900.87 2,347,745.00

Historical Demand and Supply of MAP

140,000,000.00

120,000,000.00

100,000,000.00

80,000,000.00

60,000,000.00

40,000,000.00

20,000,000.00

-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

DEMAND (Kg/Yr) SUPPLY (Kg/Yr)

Figure 1.3 Graphical representation of historical demand vs. supply of

Monoammonium Phosphate
Projected Demand and Supply for Monoammonium Phosphate

This section shows the projected future supply and demand for the next 10 years using different
types of statistical projection. This is a necessary procedure in order to predict the movement of
the market for Monoammonium Phosphate in the next 10 years.

CALCULATION OF STATISTICAL PROJECTION

1. Arithmetic Straight-Line Method (ASLM) – assumes that the annual increase in the
future will be the same although the rate or increase in percent is decreasing.

2. Arithmetic Geometric Curve Method (AGCM) – assumes that the annual increase in the
projected values is constant however; the amount of change keeps on increasing.

3. Statistical Straight-Line Method (SSLM) – assumes that the change of values is constant
while the change in percentage of the data for the year is decreasing.

4. Statistical Parabolic Curve Method (SPCM) - assumes that the change in the values and
the percentage change could be decreasing or increasing.
Projected demand for Monoammonium Phosphate

1. Arithmetic straight line method (ASLM)

Table 1.4 Projected demand Values of Monoammonium Phosphate using

ASLM
Year Y Year Yc
2006 125,409,615.65 2016 92,659,297.59
2007 92,590,361.07 2017 89,681,995.95
2008 43,782,708.94 2018 86,704,694.31
2009 66,673,829.76 2019 83,727,392.66
2010 96,734,206.52 2020 80,750,091.02
2011 52,897,542.71 2021 77,772,789.38
2012 64,181,879.21 2022 74,795,487.74
2013 76,576,608.82 2023 71,818,186.10
2014 85,650,198.65 2024 68,840,884.46
2015 98,613,900.87 2025 65,863,582.81
Standard 39,518,564.52
Deviation

Standard Deviation:

∑(𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑆𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑑) 1.5𝐸16

𝑆𝐷 = √ =√
𝑁 10

𝑺𝑫 = 𝟑𝟗, 𝟓𝟏𝟖, 𝟓𝟔𝟒. 𝟓𝟐

120,000,000.00
Aslm Projected demand of MAP
100,000,000.00

80,000,000.00

60,000,000.00

40,000,000.00
y = -419011x2 + 2E+09x - 2E+12
20,000,000.00 R² = 0.8793

-
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Aslm Projected demand Poly. (Aslm Projected demand)

Figure 1.4 Graphical representation of ASLM projected demand

 2. Arithmetic Geometric Curve Method (AGCM)

Table 1.5 Projected demand Values of Monoammonium Phosphate using

ASLM
Year Y Year Yc
2006 125,409,615.65 2016 103,084,221.93
2007 92,590,361.07 2017 107,757,189.56
2008 43,782,708.94 2018 112,641,990.07
2009 66,673,829.76 2019 117,748,226.16
2010 96,734,206.52 2020 123,085,935.85
2011 52,897,542.71 2021 128,665,612.20
2012 64,181,879.21 2022 134,498,223.93
2013 76,576,608.82 2023 140,595,236.99
2014 85,650,198.65 2024 146,968,637.11
2015 98,613,900.87 2025 153,630,953.34
Standard 26,267,286.20
Deviation

Standard Deviation:

∑(𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑆𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑑) 6.8𝑥1015

𝑆𝐷 = √ = √
𝑁 10

𝑺𝑫 = 𝟐𝟔, 𝟐𝟔𝟕, 𝟐𝟖𝟔. 𝟐𝟎

Projected demand of MAP using

AGCM
y = -46459x2 + 2E+08x -
200,000,000.00
2E+11
R² = 0.9909
150,000,000.00
Projected demand
100,000,000.00 using AGCM

50,000,000.00 Poly. (Projected

demand using
0.00 AGCM)
2000200520102015202020252030

Figure 1.5 Graphical representation of AGCM projected demand

 3. Statistical Straight Line Method (SSLM)

Table 1.6 Projected demand Values of Monoammonium Phosphate using

SSLM

Year Y Year Yc
2006 125,409,615.65 2016 74,408,232.36
2007 92,590,361.07 2017 73,334,986.38
2008 43,782,708.94 2018 72,261,740.41
2009 66,673,829.76 2019 71,188,494.43
2010 96,734,206.52 2020 70,115,248.46
2011 52,897,542.71 2021 69,042,002.48
2012 64,181,879.21 2022 67,968,756.50
2013 76,576,608.82 2023 66,895,510.53
2014 85,650,198.65 2024 65,822,264.55
2015 98,613,900.87 2025 64,749,018.58
Standard 𝟐𝟐𝟗𝟓𝟑𝟕𝟒𝟔. 𝟕𝟒
Deviation

Standard Deviation:

∑(𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑆𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑑) 5.2𝑥015

𝑆𝐷 = √ =√
𝑁 10

𝑺𝑫 = 𝟐𝟐𝟗𝟓𝟑𝟕𝟒𝟔. 𝟕𝟒

Projected Demand of MAP using

SSLM
y = -677048x2 + 3E+09x - 3E+12
150,000,000
R² = 0.703

100,000,000
Projected Demand
50,000,000 of MAP using SSLM

0 Poly. (Projected
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Demand of MAP
using SSLM )
-50,000,000

Figure 1.6 Graphical representation of SSLM projected demand

 4. Statistical Parabolic Curve Method (SPCM)

Table 1.7 Projected demand Values of Monoammonium Phosphate using

SPCM
Year Y Year Yc
2006 125,409,615.65 2016 123,505,630.44
2007 92,590,361.07 2017 135,801,281.95
2008 43,782,708.94 2018 149,212,783.41
2009 66,673,829.76 2019 163,740,134.83
2010 96,734,206.52 2020 179,383,336.21
2011 52,897,542.71 2021 196,142,387.55
2012 64,181,879.21 2022 214,017,288.84
2013 76,576,608.82 2023 233,008,040.09
2014 85,650,198.65 2024 253,114,641.29
2015 98,613,900.87 2025 274,337,092.45
Standard 16,245,150.29
Deviation

Standard Deviation:

∑(𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑆𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑑) 2.6𝑥1015

𝑆𝐷 = √ = √
𝑁 10

𝑺𝑫 = 𝟏𝟔𝟐𝟒𝟓𝟏𝟓𝟎. 𝟐𝟗

Projected demand of MAP using

SPCM
y = 206453x2 - 8E+08x + 8E+11
300,000,000 R² = 0.973
250,000,000
Projected demand of
200,000,000 MAP using SPCM
150,000,000
100,000,000 Poly. (Projected
50,000,000 demand of MAP
using SPCM)
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Figure 1.7 Graphical representation of SPCM projected demand

 Table 1.8 Summary of Standard Deviations
Method of Statistical Projection Standard Deviation
1. ASLM 𝟑𝟗, 𝟓𝟏𝟖, 𝟓𝟔𝟒. 𝟓𝟐
2. AGCM 𝟐𝟔, 𝟐𝟔𝟕, 𝟐𝟖𝟔. 𝟐𝟎
3. SSLM 𝟐𝟐, 𝟗𝟓𝟑, 𝟕𝟒𝟔. 𝟕𝟒
4. SPCM 𝟏𝟔, 𝟐𝟒𝟓, 𝟏𝟓𝟎. 𝟐𝟗

Since SPCM have the lowest standard deviation, SPCM should be used to project the
demand of Monoammonium Phosphate for the next 10 years.

Table 1.9 Summary of Equations and R2 of different methods of projection

Method 2nd Order Polynomial Regression Equation R2

ASLM y = -419011x2 + 2E+09x - 2E+12 0.8793
AGCM y = -46459x2 + 2E+08x - 2E+11 0.9909
SSLM y = -677048x2 + 3E+09x - 3E+12 0.703
SPCM y = -206453x2 - 8E+08x + 8E+11 0.973

Table 1.10 Projected Demand of Monoammonium Phosphate

Demand
Year
(Net Weight in kg)

2018 149,212,783.41

2019 163,740,134.83

2020 179,383,336.21

2021 196,142,387.55

2022 214,017,288.84

2023 233,008,040.09

2024 253,114,641.29

2025 274,337,092.45

2026 234,775,832.63

2027 258,229,983.70
 Projected supply for Monoammonium Phosphate
1. Arithmetic straight-line method (ASLM)

Table 1.11 Projected supply Values of Monoammonium Phosphate using

ASLM
Year Y Year Yc
2006 94,439,823.00 2016 -18,117,161.22
2007 41,117,493.00 2017 -28,349,614.33
2008 26,371,430.00 2018 -38,582,067.44
2009 4,903,042.00 2019 -48,814,520.56
2010 1,464,173.00 2020 -59,046,973.67
2011 655,750.00 2021 -69,279,426.78
2012 45,604,401.00 2022 -79,511,879.89
2013 12,350,104.00 2023 -89,744,333.00
2014 22,268,032.00 2024 -99,976,786.11
2015 2,347,745.00 2025 -110,209,239.22
Standard 35,314,798.05
Deviation

Standard Deviation:

∑(𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑆𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑑) 1.2𝑥1016

𝑆𝐷 = √ =√
𝑁 10

𝑺𝑫 = 𝟑𝟓, 𝟑𝟏𝟒, 𝟕𝟗𝟖. 𝟎𝟓

Projected Supply ASLM

150,000,000.00
y = -147354x2 + 6E+08x -
6E+11
100,000,000.00
R² = 0.924
50,000,000.00 ASLM Projected
Supply
0.00
2000200520102015202020252030 Poly. (ASLM
-50,000,000.00 Projected Supply)

-100,000,000.00

-150,000,000.00

Figure 1.10 Graphical representation of ASLM supply projection

 2. Arithmetic Geometric Curve Method (AGCM)

Table 1.12 Projected supply Values of Monoammonium Phosphate using

AGCM
Year Y Year Yc
2006 94,439,823.00 2016 19,234,259.56
2007 41,117,493.00 2017 157,579,609.67
2008 26,371,430.00 2018 1,290,995,024.23
2009 4,903,042.00 2019 10,576,673,949.85
2010 1,464,173.00 2020 86,651,017,038.91
2011 655,750.00 2021 709,901,693,999.40
2012 45,604,401.00 2022 5,815,978,073,481.85
2013 12,350,104.00 2023 47,648,288,822,438.40
2014 22,268,032.00 2024 390,365,884,984,728.00
2015 2,347,745.00 2025 3,198,132,145,474,840.00
Standard 37,477,743.33
Deviation

Standard Deviation:

∑(𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑆𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑑) 1.4𝑥1016

𝑆𝐷 = √ =√
𝑁 10

𝑺𝑫 = 𝟑𝟕, 𝟒𝟕𝟕, 𝟕𝟒𝟑. 𝟑𝟑

AGCM projection
250,000,000,000,000,000.00 y = 6E+14x2 - 2E+18x + 2E+21
R² = 0.3811
200,000,000,000,000,000.00

150,000,000,000,000,000.00
Projected
100,000,000,000,000,000.00 Supply

50,000,000,000,000,000.00
Poly.
0.00 (Projected
2000 2010 2020 2030 Supply)
-50,000,000,000,000,000.00

Figure 1.11 Graphical representation of AGCM supply projection

 3. Statistical Straight Line Method (SSLM)

Table 1.13 Projected supply Values of Monoammonium Phosphate using

SSLM

Year Y Year Yc
2006 94,439,823.00 2016 -5,167,330.87
2007 41,117,493.00 2017 -10,679,972.72
2008 26,371,430.00 2018 -16,192,614.56
2009 4,903,042.00 2019 -21,705,256.41
2010 1,464,173.00 2020 -27,217,898.26
2011 655,750.00 2021 -32,730,540.11
2012 45,604,401.00 2022 -38,243,181.96
2013 12,350,104.00 2023 -43,755,823.81
2014 22,268,032.00 2024 -49,268,465.65
2015 2,347,745.00 2025 -54,781,107.50
Standard 22,873,163.33
Deviation

Standard Deviation:

∑(𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑆𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑑) 5.2𝑥1015

𝑆𝐷 = √ = √
𝑁 10

𝑺𝑫 = 𝟐𝟐, 𝟖𝟕𝟑, 𝟏𝟔𝟑. 𝟑𝟑

Projected Supply SSLM

120,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
y = 35910x2 - 2E+08x + 2E+11
80,000,000.00
R² = 0.8384
60,000,000.00
40,000,000.00 Projected Supply SSLM

20,000,000.00
Poly. (Projected Supply
0.00 SSLM)
-20,000,000.002000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
-40,000,000.00
-60,000,000.00
-80,000,000.00

Figure 1.12 Graphical representation of SSLM supply projection

 4. Statistical Parabolic Curve Method (SPCM)

Table 1.14 Projected supply Values of Monoammonium Phosphate using

SPCM
Year Y Year Yc
2006 94,439,823.00 2016 37,230,411.05
2007 41,117,493.00 2017 45,555,318.13
2008 26,371,430.00 2018 54,843,810.25
2009 4,903,042.00 2019 65,095,887.41
2010 1,464,173.00 2020 76,311,549.62
2011 655,750.00 2021 88,490,796.87
2012 45,604,401.00 2022 101,633,629.16
2013 12,350,104.00 2023 115,740,046.50
2014 22,268,032.00 2024 130,810,048.88
2015 2,347,745.00 2025 146,843,636.31
Standard 18,085,442.12
Deviation

Standard Deviation:

∑(𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑆𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑑) 3.2𝑥1015

𝑆𝐷 = √ = √
𝑁 10

𝑺𝑫 = 𝟏𝟖, 𝟎𝟖𝟓, 𝟒𝟒𝟐. 𝟏𝟐

Projected supply SPCM

250,000,000.00 y = 807845x2 - 3E+09x + 3E+12
R² = 0.9169
200,000,000.00

150,000,000.00
Projected supply
SPCM
100,000,000.00
Poly. (Projected
50,000,000.00 supply SPCM)

0.00
2000 2010 2020 2030
-50,000,000.00
Figure 1.13 Graphical Representation of SPCM supply projection
 Table 1.15 Summary of Standard Deviations
Method of Statistical Projection Standard Deviation
1. ASLM 35,314,798.05
2. AGCM 37,477,743.33
3. SSLM 22,873,163.33
4. SPCM 18,085,442.12

SPCM yields the lowest standard deviation among the 4 therefore, SPCM projection shall
be used in determining the supply for the next 10 years.

Table 1.16 Summary of Equations and R2 of different methods of projection

Method 2nd Order Polynomial Regression Equation R2

ASLM y = -147354x2 + 6E+08x - 6E+11 0.924
AGCM y = 6E+14x2 - 2E+18x + 2E+21 0.3811
SSLM y = 35910x2 - 2E+08x + 2E+11 0.8384
SPCM y = 807845x2 - 3E+09x + 3E+12 0.9169

Table 1.17 Projected supply of Monoammonium Phosphate using SPCM projection for the next
10 years

Supply
Year
(Net Weight in kg)

2018 54,843,810.25

2019 65,095,887.41

2020 76,311,549.62

2021 88,490,796.87

2022 101,633,629.16

2023 115,740,046.50

2024 130,810,048.88

2025 146,843,636.31

2026 163,840,808.78

2027 181,801,566.29
 Table 1.18 Projected Supply and Demand of Monoammonium Phosphate
YEAR PROJECTED DEMAND PROJECTED SUPPLY
(KG) (KG)
2018 149,212,783.41 54,843,810.25
2019 163,740,134.83 65,095,887.41
2020 179,383,336.21 76,311,549.62
2021 196,142,387.55 88,490,796.87
2022 214,017,288.84 101,633,629.16
2023 233,008,040.09 115,740,046.50
2024 253,114,641.29 130,810,048.88
2025 274,337,092.45 146,843,636.31
2026 234,775,832.63 163,840,808.78
2027 258,229,983.70 181,801,566.29

Projected Demand Vs. Projected Supply

500,000,000.00
450,000,000.00
400,000,000.00
350,000,000.00
300,000,000.00
250,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
150,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
50,000,000.00
0.00
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Projected Supply Projected Demand

Figure 1.16 Graphical Representation of Projected supply and demand of

Monoammonium Phosphate

The projected supply and demand for the next 10 years shows that there is high amount of
unsatisfied demand here in the Philippines. This high amount of unsatisfied demand may
cause the companies using Monoammonium Phosphate to reduce their production rate
which may led to the company’s bankruptcy.
PLANT CAPACITY

For the annual production of the plant, 300 operating days will be allocated. Operation will
shut down for a total of 60 days this will happen during the months of July and November
for maintenance purposes.

Table 1.19 Projected demand and supply for Monoammonium Phosphate

Demand Supply
149,212,783.41 54,843,810.25
163,740,134.83 65,095,887.41
179,383,336.21 76,311,549.62
196,142,387.55 88,490,796.87
214,017,288.84 101,633,629.16
233,008,040.09 115,740,046.50
253,114,641.29 130,810,048.88
274,337,092.45 146,843,636.31
234,775,832.63 163,840,808.78
258,229,983.70 181,801,566.29

Unsatisfied Demand

The difference between projected demand and projected supply in the market. The
amount of demand not being satisfied by the supply circulating in the market. Unsatisfied
demand dictates the plant capacity for production to avoid over or under production in the
plant.

Unsatisfied Demand = Projected Demand – Projected Supply

 Table 1.20 Table for Unsatisfied demand of MAP
Unsatisfied Demand
(kg)
94,368,973.16
98,644,247.42
103,071,786.60
107,651,590.68
112,383,659.68
117,267,993.59
122,304,592.41
127,493,456.14
70,935,023.85
76,428,417.41

Table 1.21 Plant Capacity for Monoammonium Phosphate

Market Annual Daily
Unsatisfied Utilization
Year Share Production Production
Demand (kg) (%)
(%) (kg) (kg)
2018 94,368,973.16 80% 13.107% 12368614.39 41228.71464
2019 98,644,247.42 90% 14.106% 13914691.19 46382.30397
2020 103,071,786.60 100% 15.0% 15460767.99 51535.8933
2021 107,651,590.68 100% 14.362% 15460767.99 51535.8933
2022 112,383,659.68 100% 13.757% 15460767.99 51535.8933
2023 117,267,993.59 100% 13.184% 15460767.99 51535.8933
2024 122,304,592.41 100% 12.641% 15460767.99 51535.8933
2025 127,493,456.14 100% 12.127% 15460767.99 51535.8933
2026 70,935,023.85 100% 21.796% 15460767.99 51535.8933
2027 76,428,417.41 100% 20.229% 15460767.99 51535.8933
MARKET DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF RAW MATERIALS
The tables and figures below shows the historical and projected demand and supply of the
raw materials used, Phosphoric acid and Ammonia, which express the feasibility of the production
of Monoammonium Phosphate.

HISTORICAL DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF PHOSPORICACID

Table 1.20 Table of historical supply and demand of Phosphoric acid [Philippine Statistics
Authority]
YEAR HISTORICAL DEMAND HISTORICAL SUPPLY
2006 6,229,792.00 19,169,470,000.00
2007 2,294,513.00 31,220,277,000.00
2008 816,172.00 17,465,182,000.00
2009 468,256.00 21,588,200,000.00
2010 2,986,482.00 18,257,860,000.00
2011 5,649,435.00 17,287,846,000.00
2012 1,367,274.00 17,761,773,000.00
2013 1,033,185.00 18,327,072,000.00
2014 635,278.00 16,528,003,000.00
2015 1,154,647.00 18,187,834,000.00

Historical Demand and Supply Phosporic acid

35,000,000,000.00

30,000,000,000.00

25,000,000,000.00

20,000,000,000.00

15,000,000,000.00

10,000,000,000.00

5,000,000,000.00

-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

DEMAND (Kg/Yr) SUPPLY (Kg/Yr)

Figure 1.17 Graphical Representation of Historical Demand and Supply of Phosphoric Acid
Projected demand for Phosphoric acid

1. Arithmetic straight-line method (ASLM)

Table 1.4 Projected demand Values of Phosphoric acid using ASLM

Year Y Year Yc
2006 6,229,792.00 2016 26,837.00
2007 2,294,513.00 2017 -537,068.00
2008 816,172.00 2018 -1,100,973.00
2009 468,256.00 2019 -1,664,878.00
2010 2,986,482.00 2020 -2,228,783.00
2011 5,649,435.00 2021 -2,792,688.00
2012 1,367,274.00 2022 -3,356,593.00
2013 1,033,185.00 2023 -3,920,498.00
2014 635,278.00 2024 -4,484,403.00
2015 1,154,647.00 2025 -5,048,308.00
Standard 2,391,841.18
Deviation

Standard Deviation:

∑(𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑆𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑑) 5.7𝐸13

𝑆𝐷 = √ =√
𝑁 10

𝑺𝑫 = 𝟐, 𝟑𝟗𝟏, 𝟖𝟒𝟏. 𝟏𝟖

8,000,000.00
6,000,000.00
ASLM projection demand
4,000,000.00 y = -9572.6x2 + 4E+07x - 4E+10
2,000,000.00 R² = 0.8656
-
(2,000,000.00)2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

(4,000,000.00)
(6,000,000.00)
(8,000,000.00)

ASLM projection demand Poly. (ASLM projection demand)

Figure 1.4 Graphical representation of ASLM projected demand

 2. Arithmetic Geometric Curve Method (AGCM)

Table 1.5 Projected demand Values of Phosphoric acid using ASLM

Year Y Year Yc
2006 6,229,792.00 2016 1,667,487.99
2007 2,294,513.00 2017 2,408,109.32
2008 816,172.00 2018 3,477,680.52
2009 468,256.00 2019 5,022,305.96
2010 2,986,482.00 2020 7,252,982.84
2011 5,649,435.00 2021 10,474,423.61
2012 1,367,274.00 2022 15,126,679.93
2013 1,033,185.00 2023 21,845,254.13
2014 635,278.00 2024 31,547,909.41
2015 1,154,647.00 2025 45,560,037.08
Standard 2,863,345.69
Deviation

Standard Deviation:

∑(𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑆𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑑) 8.1𝑥1013

𝑆𝐷 = √ =√
𝑁 10

𝑺𝑫 = 𝟐, 𝟖𝟔𝟑, 𝟑𝟒𝟓. 𝟔𝟗

AGCM Projected demand

120,000,000.00

100,000,000.00 y = 399840x2 - 2E+09x + 2E+12

R² = 0.8799
80,000,000.00
AGCM Projected
60,000,000.00 demand

40,000,000.00 Poly. (AGCM Projected

demand)
20,000,000.00

0.00
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
-20,000,000.00

Figure 1.5 Graphical representation of AGCM projected demand

 3. Statistical Straight Line Method (SSLM)

Table 1.6 Projected demand Values of Phosphoric acid using SSLM

Year Y Year Yc
2006 6,229,792.00 2016 568,640.80
2007 2,294,513.00 2017 260,483.96
2008 816,172.00 2018 -47,672.87
2009 468,256.00 2019 -355,829.71
2010 2,986,482.00 2020 -663,986.55
2011 5,649,435.00 2021 -972,143.38
2012 1,367,274.00 2022 -1,280,300.22
2013 1,033,185.00 2023 -1,588,457.05
2014 635,278.00 2024 -1,896,613.89
2015 1,154,647.00 2025 -2,204,770.73
Standard 1,772,023.071
Deviation

Standard Deviation:

∑(𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑆𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑑) 3.1𝑥1013

𝑆𝐷 = √ =√
𝑁 10

𝑺𝑫 = 𝟏, 𝟕𝟕𝟐, 𝟎𝟐𝟑. 𝟎𝟕𝟏

SSLM projected demand

8,000,000

6,000,000 SSLM projected

4,000,000 demand
Poly. (SSLM projected
2,000,000
demand)
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
-2,000,000 y = -16180x2 + 6E+07x - 6E+10
R² = 0.7645
-4,000,000

-6,000,000

-8,000,000

Figure 1.6 Graphical representation of SSLM projected demand

 4. Statistical Parabolic Curve Method (SPCM)

Table 1.7 Projected demand Values of Monoammonium Phosphate using

SPCM
Year Y Year Yc
2006 6,229,792.00 2016 1,257,524.22
2007 2,294,513.00 2017 1,283,494.87
2008 816,172.00 2018 1,325,121.97
2009 468,256.00 2019 1,382,405.51
2010 2,986,482.00 2020 1,455,345.49
2011 5,649,435.00 2021 1,543,941.91
2012 1,367,274.00 2022 1,648,194.78
2013 1,033,185.00 2023 1,768,104.08
2014 635,278.00 2024 1,903,669.83
2015 1,154,647.00 2025 2,054,892.01
Standard 1,757,354.70
Deviation

Standard Deviation:

∑(𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑆𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑑) 3.0𝑥1013

𝑆𝐷 = √ =√
𝑁 10

𝑺𝑫 = 𝟏, 𝟕𝟓𝟕, 𝟑𝟓𝟒. 𝟕𝟎

SPCM projected demand

7,000,000
SPCM projected
6,000,000 demand
5,000,000 Poly. (SPCM projected
demand)
4,000,000
3,000,000 y = 9301.3x2 - 4E+07x + 4E+10
2,000,000 R² = 0.2262

1,000,000
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Figure 1.7 Graphical representation of SPCM projected demand

 Table 1.8 Summary of Standard Deviations
Method of Statistical Projection Standard Deviation
1. ASLM 2,391,841.18
2. AGCM 2,863,345.69
3. SSLM 1,772,023.071
4. SPCM 1,757,354.70

Since SPCM projection yields the lowest Standard deviation among the four
projection methods, it will be used in employing the projected demand for Phosphoric acid
for the next 10 years.
Table 1.9 Summary of Equations and R2 of different methods of projection

Method 2nd Order Polynomial Regression Equation R2

ASLM y = -9572.6x2 + 4E+07x - 4E+10 0.8656
AGCM y = 399840x2 - 2E+09x + 2E+12 0.8799
SSLM y = -16180x2 + 6E+07x - 6E+10 0.7645
SPCM y = 9301.3x2 - 4E+07x + 4E+10 0.2262

Table 1.10 Projected Demand of Phosphoric Acid

Demand
Year
(Net Weight in kg)

2018 1,325,121.97

2019 1,382,405.51

2020 1,455,345.49

2021 1,543,941.91

2022 1,648,194.78

2023 1,768,104.08

2024 1,903,669.83

2025 2,054,892.01

2026 216,598.52

2027 399,133.59
 Projected supply for Phosphoric acid
1. Arithmetic straight-line method (ASLM)

Table 1.11 Projected supply Values of Phosphoric acid using ASLM

Year Y Year Yc
2006 94,439,823.00 2016 17,969,692,666.67
2007 41,117,493.00 2017 17,860,622,000.00
2008 26,371,430.00 2018 17,751,551,333.33
2009 4,903,042.00 2019 17,642,480,666.67
2010 1,464,173.00 2020 17,533,410,000.00
2011 655,750.00 2021 17,424,339,333.33
2012 45,604,401.00 2022 17,315,268,666.67
2013 12,350,104.00 2023 17,206,198,000.00
2014 22,268,032.00 2024 17,097,127,333.33
2015 2,347,745.00 2025 16,988,056,666.67
Standard 4,041,357,057.65
Deviation

Standard Deviation:

∑(𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑆𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑑) 1.6𝑥1020

𝑆𝐷 = √ =√
𝑁 10

𝑺𝑫 = 𝟒, 𝟎𝟒𝟏, 𝟑𝟓𝟕, 𝟎𝟓𝟕. 𝟔𝟓

35,000,000,000.00
ASLM projected supply
ASLM projected supply
30,000,000,000.00

25,000,000,000.00 Poly. (ASLM projected

supply)
20,000,000,000.00
y = 2E+07x2 - 1E+11x + 1E+14
15,000,000,000.00 R² = 0.338
10,000,000,000.00

5,000,000,000.00

0.00
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Figure 1.10 Graphical representation of ASLM supply projection

 2. Arithmetic Geometric Curve Method (AGCM)

Table 1.12 Projected supply Values of Phosphoric acid using AGCM

Year Y Year Yc
2006 94,439,823.00 2016 18,750,122,209.91
2007 41,117,493.00 2017 19,329,793,909.85
2008 26,371,430.00 2018 19,927,386,521.23
2009 4,903,042.00 2019 20,543,454,080.19
2010 1,464,173.00 2020 21,178,567,751.24
2011 655,750.00 2021 21,833,316,356.78
2012 45,604,401.00 2022 22,508,306,923.03
2013 12,350,104.00 2023 23,204,165,242.82
2014 22,268,032.00 2024 23,921,536,455.73
2015 2,347,745.00 2025 24,661,085,646.25
Standard 6,146,935,740.21
Deviation

Standard Deviation:

∑(𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑆𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑑) 3.7𝑥1020

𝑆𝐷 = √ =√
𝑁 10

𝑺𝑫 = 𝟔, 𝟏𝟒𝟔, 𝟗𝟑𝟓, 𝟕𝟒𝟎. 𝟐𝟏

AGCM projected supply

35,000,000,000.00
y = 6E+07x2 - 2E+11x +
30,000,000,000.00
2E+14
25,000,000,000.00 R² = 0.5122

20,000,000,000.00 AGCM projected

supply
15,000,000,000.00
Poly. (AGCM projected
10,000,000,000.00 supply)

5,000,000,000.00

0.00
2000 2010 2020 2030

Figure 1.11 Graphical representation of AGCM supply projection

 3. Statistical Straight Line Method (SSLM)

Table 1.13 Projected supply Values of Phosphoric acid using SSLM

Year Y Year Yc
2006 94,439,823.00 2016 15,585,335,466.67
2007 41,117,493.00 2017 14,859,150,696.97
2008 26,371,430.00 2018 14,132,965,927.27
2009 4,903,042.00 2019 13,406,781,157.58
2010 1,464,173.00 2020 12,680,596,387.88
2011 655,750.00 2021 11,954,411,618.18
2012 45,604,401.00 2022 11,228,226,848.48
2013 12,350,104.00 2023 10,502,042,078.79
2014 22,268,032.00 2024 9,775,857,309.09
2015 2,347,745.00 2025 9,049,672,539.39
Standard 3,518,445,812.36
Deviation

Standard Deviation:

∑(𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑆𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑑) 1.2𝑥1020

𝑆𝐷 = √ =√
𝑁 10

𝑺𝑫 = 𝟑, 𝟓𝟏𝟖, 𝟒𝟒𝟓, 𝟖𝟏𝟐. 𝟑𝟔

SSLM projected supply

35,000,000,000.00
y = 2E+06x2 - 7E+09x +
30,000,000,000.00 8E+12
R² = 0.7906
25,000,000,000.00

20,000,000,000.00 SSLM projected supply

15,000,000,000.00
Poly. (SSLM projected
10,000,000,000.00 supply)

5,000,000,000.00

0.00
2000 2010 2020 2030

Figure 1.12 Graphical representation of SSLM supply projection

 4. Statistical Parabolic Curve Method (SPCM)

Table 1.14 Projected supply Values of Phosphoric acid using SPCM

Year Y Year Yc
2006 94,439,823.00 2016 17,553,284,383.33
2007 41,117,493.00 2017 17,704,542,283.52
2008 26,371,430.00 2018 17,900,526,295.45
2009 4,903,042.00 2019 18,141,236,419.13
2010 1,464,173.00 2020 18,426,672,654.55
2011 655,750.00 2021 18,756,835,001.70
2012 45,604,401.00 2022 19,131,723,460.61
2013 12,350,104.00 2023 19,551,338,031.25
2014 22,268,032.00 2024 20,015,678,713.64
2015 2,347,745.00 2025 20,524,745,507.77
Standard 3,457,885,359.49
Deviation

Standard Deviation:

∑(𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑆𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑑) 1.2𝑥1020

𝑆𝐷 = √ =√
𝑁 10

𝑺𝑫 = 𝟑, 𝟒𝟓𝟕, 𝟖𝟖𝟓, 𝟑𝟓𝟗. 𝟒𝟗

SPCM projected supply

35,000,000,000.00

30,000,000,000.00
y = 5E+07x2 - 2E+11x +
25,000,000,000.00 2E+14
R² = 0.3441
20,000,000,000.00 SPCM projected supply

15,000,000,000.00 Poly. (SPCM projected

supply)
10,000,000,000.00

5,000,000,000.00

0.00
2000 2010 2020 2030

Figure 1.13 Graphical Representation of SPCM supply projection

 Table 1.15 Summary of Standard Deviations
Method of Statistical Projection Standard Deviation
1. ASLM 4,041,357,057.65
2. AGCM 6,146,935,740.21
3. SSLM 3,518,445,812.36
4. SPCM 3,457,885,359.49

SPCM yields the lowest standard deviation among the 4 therefore, SPCM projection shall
be used in determining the supply for the next 10 years.

Table 1.16 Summary of Equations and R2 of different methods of projection

Method 2nd Order Polynomial Regression Equation R2

ASLM y = 2E+07x2 - 1E+11x + 1E+14 0.338
AGCM y = 6E+07x2 - 2E+11x + 2E+14 0.5122
SSLM y = 2E+06x2 - 7E+09x + 8E+12 0.7906
SPCM y = 5E+07x2 - 2E+11x + 2E+14 0.3441

Table 1.17 Projected supply of Phosphoric Acid using SPCM projection for the next 10 years

Supply
Year
(Net Weight in kg)

2018 17,900,526,295.45

2019 18,141,236,419.13

2020 18,426,672,654.55

2021 18,756,835,001.70

2022 19,131,723,460.61

2023 19,551,338,031.25

2024 20,015,678,713.64

2025 20,524,745,507.77

2026 21,078,538,413.64

2027 21,677,057,431.25
 Table 1.18 Projected Supply and Demand of Phosphoric acid
YEAR PROJECTED DEMAND PROJECTED SUPPLY
(KG) (KG)
2018 1,325,121.97 17,900,526,295.45
2019 1,382,405.51 18,141,236,419.13
2020 1,455,345.49 18,426,672,654.55
2021 1,543,941.91 18,756,835,001.70
2022 1,648,194.78 19,131,723,460.61
2023 1,768,104.08 19,551,338,031.25
2024 1,903,669.83 20,015,678,713.64
2025 2,054,892.01 20,524,745,507.77
2026 216,598.52 21,078,538,413.64
2027 399,133.59 21,677,057,431.25

Projected demand and supply of Phosphoric acid

25,000,000,000.00

20,000,000,000.00

15,000,000,000.00

10,000,000,000.00

5,000,000,000.00

0.00
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

PROJECTED DEMAND (Kg/Yr) PROJECTED SUPPLY (Kg/Yr)

Figure 1.16 Graphical Representation of Projected supply and demand of Phosphoric

Acid

The projected supply and demand for the next 10 years shows that there will be
high amount of supply of Phosphoric acid here in the Philippines for the next 10 years.
There will be a huge difference between supply and demand according to the projection
used.
 MARKET ENVIRONMENT
The market environment studies the selling price, competitiveness of product, transport
methods, channels of distribution and general trade practices for Monoammonium Phosphate. The
conditions mentioned is significant in order to determine the feasibility of production of
Monoammonium Phosphate in the country.

MARKET SELLING PRICE OF MONOAMMONIUM PHOSPHATE

SELLING PRICE STUDY OF MONOAMMONIUM PHOSPHATE

Table 1.31 Historical price data for Monoammonium Phosphate [UNcomtrade]

YEAR PRICE(PHP/KG)
2006 97.81477
2007 99.55344
2008 94.71131
2009 83.97812
2010 116.9699
2011 138.7535
2012 120.6219
2013 111.4728
2014 128.1909
2015 154.2686

Historical price for Monoammoium Phosphate

180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Figure 1.26 Graphical representation of historical price of Monoammonium Phosphate

PROJECTED MARKET PRICE OF MONOAMMONIUM PHOSPHATE

 The market price for Monoammonium Phosphate for the next year is projected by
the five methods of projection based on the historical price of Monoammonium Phosphate.

1. Arithmetic Straight Line Method (ASLM)

Table 1.32 Projected Price of Monoammonium Phosphate through ASLM
Year Y Year Yc
2006 97.81477 2016 166.81
2007 99.55344 2017 173.09
2008 94.71131 2018 179.36
2009 83.97812 2019 185.63
2010 116.9699 2020 191.90
2011 138.7535 2021 198.18
2012 120.6219 2022 204.45
2013 111.4728 2023 210.72
2014 128.1909 2024 217.00
2015 154.2686 2025 223.27
Standard 17.28
Deviation

2. Arithmetic Geometric Curve Method (AGCM)

Table 1.33 Projected Price of Monoammonium Phosphate through AGCM
Year Y Year Yc
2006 97.81477 2016 164.24
2007 99.55344 2017 174.86
2008 94.71131 2018 186.16
2009 83.97812 2019 198.20
2010 116.9699 2020 211.01
2011 138.7535 2021 224.65
2012 120.6219 2022 239.17
2013 111.4728 2023 254.63
2014 128.1909 2024 271.09
2015 154.2686 2025 288.61
Standard 13.95
Deviation
3. Statistical Straight Line Method (SSLM)
Table 1.34 Projected Price of Monoammonium Phosphate through SSLM
Year Y Year Yc
2006 97.81477 2016 145.44
2007 99.55344 2017 151.04
2008 94.71131 2018 156.64
2009 83.97812 2019 162.24
2010 116.9699 2020 167.84
2011 138.7535 2021 173.44
2012 120.6219 2022 179.04
2013 111.4728 2023 184.64
2014 128.1909 2024 190.24
2015 154.2686 2025 195.84
Standard 12.83418527
Deviation

4. Statistical Parabolical Projection Method (SPCM)

Table 1.32 Projected Price of Monoammonium Phosphate through SPCM
Year Y Year Yc
2006 97.81477 2016 155.86
2007 99.55344 2017 161.39
2008 94.71131 2018 167.15
2009 83.97812 2019 173.15
2010 116.9699 2020 179.38
2011 138.7535 2021 185.86
2012 120.6219 2022 192.57
2013 111.4728 2023 199.51
2014 128.1909 2024 206.70
2015 154.2686 2025 214.12
Standard 12.36
Deviation

SPCM have the lowest standard deviation of all the projection method used.
However, AGCM projection have the highest price for the market price of
Monoammonium Phosphate for the next 10 years. Therefore, AGCM projection will be
used to determine the market price of Monoammonium Phosphate.

COMPETITIVENESS OF THE PRODUCT

 The company’s goals are to produce and distribute affordable yet high quality
grade of Monoammonium Phosphate through an efficient way of production. This will
ensure the growth of the company and will contribute to the growth of local market and
global market.

Monoammonium Phosphate is used as a precursor for polyamides, it is also used

for polyurethanes, and PVC’s. It is used to produce high grade polyamides worldwide.
Kemko Philippines is determined to produce high quality Monoammonium Phosphate to
ensure that it can be used to produce high grade polyamides and meet the standard of the
coonsumers and to ensure that the company will be able to compete with the global
competitors.

The raw materials used in the production of Monoammonium Phosphate may

cause harm to the workers, Kemko Philippines will ensure that the workers will receive
proper training in handling the chemicals and will ensure that the workers will receive each
personal protective equipment to guarantee the safety of the employees. This will build a
better environment for the workers whilst producing high quality product.

Kemko Philippines is committed to become one of the leading producers of

Monoammonium Phosphate worldwide. Kemko Philippines will ensure that the product
will always stay tip of the top while promoting a worker friendly environment and efficient
production to keep up with the consumer’s contentment.
 METHODS OF TRANSPORTATION OF MONOAMMONIUM PHOSPHATE

To ensure that the quality of the products stay high, Kemko Philippines will take
pride in handling and storage of Monoammonium Phosphate to avoid deterioration and avoid
safety problems. Primarily Monoammonium Phosphate is stored in a polybag. Monoammonium
Phosphate is commonly distributed in a bag of 50 kg. However, in cases of huge amount of orders,
Kemko Philippines will properly supply in bulk bags.

Kemko Philippines devised a method of transportation that will ensure to avoid the
deterioration of the product. The following are the general considerations applied to all modes of
transportation of Monoammonium Phosphate:

 Monoammonium Phosphate should be stored in a cool dry place. Away from any
sources of ignition and heat and any oxidizing chemicals. Open flame source or
heat may cause a fire risk. The workers should wear full personal protective
equipment as there are excessive dust generation from the product which may pose
a health risk on the worker.
 Since Monoammonium Phosphate can be delivered through polybags, it can be
easily delivered by trucks. However, the trucks must be ensured to be cool and dry
and free protected against water and spillage.
 If there are spillage in the product, it must be dealt with in accordance to material
safety data sheet (MSDS) in order to ensure that there will be no harm to the
workers.
 CHANNEL OF DISITRIBUTION

Figure 1.25 Channel of distribution of Monoammonium Phosphate

The methods of distribution are shown in fig 1.25, the Monoammonium Phosphate
is delivered to different companies producing different products. Kemko Philippines targets the
distribution of Monoammonium Phosphate into different companies that produce Polyurethane,
Polyamide and PVC. Companies that produces these materials are Neltex Inc, Sika Phils, INOAC
phils., and Emerald Industries.

In order to promote the product, the company will produce local publications and will
contact all the companies needing the Monoammonium Phosphate and all the distributors to
compare the margin of the price of the product. The sales marketing team will provide the
contacting of the clients to ensure that the product will be known amongst distributors and clients.
The sales marketing will also handle finding new clients worldwide to produce more partners for
the company.
putangina

GENERAL TRADE PRACTICES

All manufacturing plants must comply with the laws present in the country, and
standard industry practices in order to survive the competition from other companies. The
company is committed to survive and adapt the changing trends in the market, economy
and other factors that may affect the company while still improving as a company
producing and promoting high quality products and will guarantee that every process will
be efficient.

PROPOSED MARKETING PROGRAM

In order for the company to gain fame, it devised a marketing program which will
engage the company in a friendly environment and ensuring that the advertisements will
be worth looking to initiate the curiosity of the clients to try the products we produce.

A. Preposition
“Monoammonium Phosphate for your plasticizer needs.”