CHAPTER 5 AIR TRANSPORT REQUEST ANALYSIS

CHAPTER 5 AIR TRANSPORT REQUEST ANALYSIS

5.1 PASSENGER AND AIR CARGO POTENCY ANALYSIS

5.1.1 Passenger Potency Analysis

5.1.1.1 Approach Scenarioes
Potency analysis of air transport passenger at Southern Banten in derivable passed psychological
approach scenario to public enthusiasm, motivation of journey, journey perpetrator status, and
transportation service user candidate characteristic, and purpose of journey.

1. Approach Scenario of Psychologies To Public Enthusiasm

Psychological condition of public enthusiasm in general available transportation service of air from
and to region Banten Selatan shows a real positive percentage, what gives picture that moda other
transportation in region Banten Selatan is not able yet to optimal to support system transportation
that is quickly, safe, balmy in this region.

2. Approach Scenario of Psychologies To Motivation of Journey

Journey perpetrator in its(the journey activity having special motivation of inter alia: office tour of
duty, business business, wisata/ recreation, family visit and others.
From motivation of this journey can be grouped which to become periodic and routine activity.
Routine activity gives picture that journey perpetrator does journey in range of time which ritmik;
daily, weekly and monthly. As for periodic activity covers; even holiday and vacation of school.
Second typical above mentioned journey will be functioned as basis for knows level of fluctuation
number of passengers in range of time one years.

3. Approach Scenario of Psychologies To Journey Perpetrator Status

From covering journey perpetrator status side: mahasiswa/ student, entrepreneur, private sector
employee, PNS/TNI/POLRI and public public. Visually can give indication of transportation service
user parameter of air. Psychologically journey perpetrator status to economic ability and higher
relative transportation service purchasing power admited of reached. Condition of this status
supporting or potency as transportation consumer candidate that is is supporting or potency as
transportation consumer candidate of air in region Banten Selatan.

4. Approach Scenario of Psychologies To Region Purpose Of Journey

Opening of a the relation of region of course there are factor-faktor making second or more than
regional has relationship tying caused caused by ethnical equality, culture, wisata, education,
commerce, and other tying. Pays attention to questionaire result received there is 5 name of
metropolis becoming choice purpose of the journey is dug according to potency characteristic as
follows:

Table 5.1 Character and Region / Cities Potency

No City / Character / City / Region Potency

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Region
Education /
Region Tourism Trading Industry Hierarchy
Technology
1 Jakarta     
2 Bandung   
3 Yogyakarta  
4 Surabaya 
5 Bali 
6 Banten  
Source: Consultant analyzed result year 2008

From appearance table is upper psychologically interrelationship between regional kota/ is resulted
existence of domination of equality of potency wisata, then the relation of activity pendidikan/teknologi,
industry and commerce. Condition of this tables gives indication that request of air transport route of
region exit Banten related to network affiliate wisata in Indonesia.

assumption of Subdividing of potensi/karakter wilayah/kota purpose of this journey which will become
one of variable to determine passenger volume base number in compiling projection of passenger in the
future.

5.1.1.2 Base Number Predictions Number Of Passengers

To calculate base number number of air transport passengers in region Banten Selatan is required [by]
some assumptions showing percentage number from the journey perpetrators through high rise
analysis.
Tabel 5.2 Komposisi Pelaku Perjalanan terhadap Motivasi Perjalanan
Motives of Journey (%)
No Status Official Business Total
Tourism Family visit Others
journey purpose
1 Student 0,00 7,88 1,66 0,41 0,41 10,37
2 Private employee 0,41 11,20 2,90 1,66 0,83 17,01
3 Businessmen 0,41 7,88 0,83 1,66 0,41 11,20
4 Gov/Police/Military 2,90 22,41 9,54 1,24 12,86 48,96
5 Others 0,41 8,71 2,49 0,41 0,41 12,45
Total 4,15 58,09 17,43 5,39 14,94 100,00
Source: Consultant analyzed result year 2008

1. Jumlah pelaku perjalanan yang berpotensi menggunakan jasa angkutan udara adalah 53,11% dari
responden
2. Jumlah calon penumpang yang didukung factor ekonomi adalah 27,9% dari jumlah responden.
3. Jumlah pelaku perjalanan berdasarkan motivasi pelaku perjalanan adalah:
a. Perjalanan dinas/ tugas kantor : 4,15% x 53,11% =2,20%
b. Urusan bisnis / usaha : 5,39% x 53,11% =1,89%
c. Kunjungan keluarga/ social : 17,43 x 5,11% =9,25%
d. Rekreasi/wisata : 58,09% x 53,11% =30,85%
e. Keperluan Lain : 14,94% x53,11% = 7,93%
4. Jumlah pelaku perjalanan berdasarkan motivasi perjalanan dan kemampuan ekonomi adalah:

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a. Perjalanan dinas / tugas kantor : 2,20% x27,39% = 0,63%

b. Urusan bisnis / usaha : 1,89% x27,39% = 0,52%
c. Kunjungan keluarga/ social : 9,25% x 27,39% =2.53%
d. Rekreasi/wisata : 30,85% x 27,39% = 8,45%
e. Keperluan lain : 7,93% x 27,39% = 2,17%
5. Referensi pengguna jasa angkutan udara di wilayah Banten:
 Jumlah PNS/TNI/POLRI adalah 13% penduduk
 Jumlah pengusaha adalah 8,4% jumlah penduduk
 Jumlah wisatawan yang berkunjung 140276 wisatawan
 Jumlah penduduk mampu adalah 1,6% jumlah penduduk
 Jumlah penduduk Banten adalah 9.223.850 jiwa
Dari referensi di atas dapat ditransformasikan menjadi:
 Jumlah PNS/TNI/POLRI =13%x 0,63% x 9.223.850 = 20 penumpang
 Jumlah wirausahawan = 8,4% x 0,52% x 9.223.850 = 11 penumpang
 Jumlah kunjungan keluarga, keperluan social = 8,4%x0,52%x9.223.580 = 10 penumpang
 Jumlah wisatawan = 1,6% x 8,45% x 890.804 = 3 orang
 Jumlah pelaku perjalanan untuk keperluan lain-lain =1,6% x 2,17% x 9.223.850 = 9
penumpang

From assumption calculation air transport service passenger potency base number in region Banten is
obtained number of penumpangh 53 one way passengers divided to become some town’s purpose of
air transport.

Air transport service passenger potency analysis resume done by merging condition of economics,
questionnaire, transportation service user of air, and utilization of usage of Airport facility is scored a
point [by] air transport passenger base in region Banten is 53 one way perhari passengers or 106
passengers perhari two directions or rounded up [by] 38690 passengers pertahun two directions.

5.1.2 CARGO VOLUME POTENCY ANALYSISES

With assumption that cargo transported by plane is function of from plane amounts bringing it, it is
therefore rational if it is developed simplified model with annual cargo volume as variable dependen and
movement of annual plane as independent variable. But needing also is seen that growth of cargo
volume hardly influenced by PDRB perkapita from area evaluated. Thereby is obtained cargo volume
model as follows:
Y(kargo) = 51,204*X-1070,7 ;R2=0.998
Dengan:
Y : Volume Kargo
X : PDRB perkapita

With result of projection of earnings of perkapita which has been elaborated in front of yielded [by] cargo
volume base number is 2333ton/ year in the year 2008.

5.2 AIR TRANSPORT ROUTE FORECAST ANALYSISES

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Like has been elaborated at chapter sub is upper, that air transport route wanted through responder
answer can be functioned as indication base to determine air transport route from and to region Banten
Selatan. Result from air transport route analysis gives information that choice route submitted
psychologically gives picture existence of interrelationship of town purpose of that one with other.
Indication emerging at the time of analysis between it:
1. Intercity interrelationship to potency wisata and culture.
2. Interrelationship of anatar town to education potency
3. Interrelationship of anatar town to commercial sector potency
4. Interrelationship of anatar town to sector potency industry

Hasil analisis jawaban responden yang telah dilakukan memberikan proporsi rute penerbangan sebagai
berikut:

Tabel 5.3 Proporsional Rute Penerbangan

No Route Penerbangan Percentage (%) Keterangan
1 Banten Selatan - Bandung 27,67 Pendidikan, wisata
budaya
2 Banten Selatan - Bali 20,39 Wisata, budaya
3 Banten Selatan - Jakarta 19,90 Pendidikan, waist
budaya
4 Banten Selatan - Yogyakarta 14,56 Industri
5 Banten Selatan - Surabaya 10,68 Wisata
6 Banten Selatan - Medan 6,80
Source: Consultant analyzed result year 2008

5.3 PASSENGER MAGNITUDE FORECAST ANALYSISES AND CARGO

5.3.1 Analisis Prakiraan Volume Penumpang Angkutan Udara

5.3.1.1 Analisis Pergerakan Penumpang Tahunan
A. Model Yang digunakan
Stocktaking data/ information system transportation can only give the symptom and problem now, but
not to a period of which will come. Therefore a forecasting about request of transportation service
covering range of time 20tahun which will come need to be done, to know number of and request
characteristics of service so that constraint and opportunity can be anticipated.

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Air traffic volume will determine area and airport facility which must be provided. Airport will serve some
activities so that volume every activity will have an effect on. Air traffic volume in general can be
formulated as model following:

Dimana:
Y : Variabel dependen ( jumlah penumpang, kargo, dan pos)
x1….xn :Explanatory Variables
a1….an :Parameter Model

Keuntungan model ini adalah bahwa secara explicit dapat siketahui nilai elastisitas demand dengan
melihat nilai parameter model.

B. Projection of Growth of Passenger Volume

To know request tendency of air transport at one particular airport is required [by] data history about
produce of air transport at Airport is intended. However because focus from this study is development of
New airport hence data history about produce of air transport is not exist, therefore will only be done
projection to passenger, cargo volume, and movement of plane. Table and also graph following will
present projection intended above.

Tabel 5.4 Prediksi Pertumbuhan Volume Penumpang Angkutan Udara

Pertumbuhan
TAHUN PESIMIS (%) MODERAT (%) OPTIMIS (%)
2008 - - -
2010 2.04 3.14 5.18
2015 2.02 3.09 4.7
2020 2.00 3.05 4.63
2025 1.99 3.02 4.58
2030 1.99 3.02 4.58
Source: Consultant analyzed result year 2008

Hasil prakiraan permintaan jasa angkutan udara tahunan adalah sebagaimana tertera dalam Tabel 5.5
berikut:

Tabel 5.5 Proyeksi Penumpang Tahunan (Pax 2 Arah)

VOLUME PENUMPANG (PAX 2 ARAH)

TAHUN PESIMIS MODERAT OPTIMIS
2008 38,690 38,690 38,690
2009 39,479 39,905 40,694
2010 40,285 41,158 42,802
2011 41,106 42,450 45,019
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VOLUME PENUMPANG (PAX 2 ARAH)

TAHUN PESIMIS MODERAT OPTIMIS
2012 41,945 43,783 47,351
2013 42,801 45,158 49,804
2014 43,665 46,553 52,145
2015 44,547 47,992 54,596
2016 45,447 49,475 57,162
2017 46,365 51,004 59,848
2018 47,302 52,580 62,661
2019 48,248 54,183 65,562
2020 49,213 55,836 68,598
2021 50,197 57,539 71,774
2022 51,201 59,294 75,097
2023 52,225 61,102 78,574
2024 53,264 62,948 82,173
2025 54,324 64,849 85,936
2026 55,405 66,807 89,872
2027 56,508 68,825 93,988
2028 57,632 70,903 98,293
2029 58,779 73,044 102,795
2030 59,949 75,250 107,503
Source: Consultant analyzed result year 2008

Gambar 5.1 Grafik Proyeksi Penumpang Tahunan

5.3.1.2 Movement Analysises of Passenger Per Air transport Route

Predicted annual passenger traffic for each route is done by dividing annual total forecast with
proportion per route. Forecast number of passengers per the route hereunder based on assumption that
there is no change or addition of air transport route from and to region Banten Selatan during coming
range of time 25 years.
Other factor that need to become consideration in development estimate of route and air transport
passenger in coming is existence of the Government strategic plan Peovinsi Banten to execute
acceleration program of development. This program meant as effort to increase capacities some pledge

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sectors like: fishery, plantation, agrobisnis, industry processing ( bases on forestry and agriculture), and
tourism.
Step of main priority in supporting this program covers opens and or increases mobility nodes
connecting Wilayah Banten Selatan with other region. This strategic plan it is of course implication at
the importance of opening of air transport routes, remembers strategic of role of air transport in
supporting this sub-province region mobility with other region.

Tabel 5.6 Proyeksi Penumpang Tahunan per rute (2Arah)

Volume Penumpang per rute (2 Arah)
BNT- BNT- BNT- BNT-
BNT-BDG DPS CGK YOG SUB BNT-MDN JUMLAH
PENUMPANG
% 27,67 20,39 19,90 14,56 10,68 6,80
TAHUNAN
TAHUN
SKENARIO PESIMIS
2008 10.706 7.889 7.699 5.633 4.132 2.631 38.690
2010 11.147 8.214 8.017 5.865 4.302 2.739 40.284
2015 12.326 9.083 8.865 6.486 4.758 3.029 44.547
2020 13.617 10.034 9.793 7.165 5.256 3.356 49.221
2025 15.032 11.077 10.811 7.910 5.802 3.694 54.326
2030 16.588 12.224 11.930 8.729 6.403 4.077 59.951
SKENARIO MODERAT
2008 10.706 7.889 7.699 5.633 4.132 2.631 38.690
2010 11.388 7.392 8.190 5.993 4.396 2.799 40.158
2015 13.279 9.786 9.550 6.988 5.126 3.263 47.992
2020 15.450 11.385 11.111 8.130 5.963 3.797 55.836
2025 17.944 13.223 12.905 9.442 6.926 4.410 64.850
2030 20.822 15.344 14.975 10.956 8.037 5.117 75.251
SKENARIO OPTIMIS
2008 10.706 7.889 7.699 5.633 4.132 2.631 38.690
2010 11.843 8.727 8.518 6.232 4.571 2.911 42.802
2015 14.107 11.132 10.865 7.949 5.831 3.713 53.597
2020 18.981 13.987 13.651 9.988 7.326 4.665 68.598
2025 23.779 17.522 17.101 12.512 9.178 5.844 85.936
2030 29.746 21.920 21.393 15.652 11.481 7.310 107.502

BNT : Banten CGK :Jakarta YOG :Yogyakarta

SUB : Surabaya MDN : Medan DPS : Denpasar
BDG :Bandung
Sumber: Hasil analisa konsultan 2008

5.3.2 Movement Analysises of Daily Plane

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To determine movement magnitude forecast of daily plane is required existence of data specification of
plan plane which will be operated, air transport route plan and air transport service demand forecasting.

projection of Movement of daily aeroplane alighted from annual passenger volume per route. By paying
attention to type, capacities and load faktorpesawat air 0,7 will be able to be obtained number of
movement of plane. Operation pattern some airline merging some routes purpose of in one air transport
sectors. This thing is because still at least requests of one of the route and existence of the same air
transport sector. For example is route Banten-Bandung, Banten-Yogyakarta becomes Banten-Bandung-
Yogyakarta, Banten-Jakarta, Banten-Bali becomes Banten-Jakarta-Bali, Banten-Surabaya, and Banten-
Bali becomes Banten-Surabaya-Bali etcetera.

Hereinafter projection of movement of aeroplane to span time 20 years ( 2010-2030) done by taking
2(dua) condition or scenario different route configuraton that is:

Tabel 5.7 Klasifikasi Pesawat

MAKS.
MODUL KAPASITAS JARAK
JENIS / TYPE PESAWAT
PENUMPANG JELAJAH
PESAWAT
(Seats) (km)
M-25 C 212-200, DHC-6 24 440
ATR-42, F-50, Dash-7, Dash-
M-50 8 50 1200
M-75 F-28, ATR-72 75 1416
M-100 B737-200, F-100 100 4900
M-125 B737-300, B737-400 125 4900
M-150 B727, MD-82 150 4175

From condition of air transport passenger forecast is region [by] Banten Selatan poured by kedalam 3
( three) scenario pessimist, moderate, and optimism, hence calculation with scenario moderate looked
into to be most relevant with condition of regional potency and economics of public as fluent supporter
of Airport operational in region Banten Selatan.

To know how far number of movement of plane serving air transport and plane capacities ( load factor)
in region Banten Selatan, can be presented at tables of following
:
Tabel 5.8 Jarak Tempuh Kota Tujuan Penerbangan
JARA MINIMUM
N K PESAWAT
KOTA TUJUAN
o YANG
(km) DIOPERASIKAN

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1 Banten-Bandung 196 M-50

2 Banten-Jakarta 132 M-50
3 Banten-Yogyakarta 528 M-50
4 Banten-Surabaya 772 M-50
5 Banten-Bali 1.064 M-75
6 Banten-Medan 1.352 M-75
Source: Consultant analyzed result year 2008

Tabel 5.9 Proyeksi Pergerakan Pesawat Harian 2 Arah Per Rute Pola Rute (1)

Tahun
Deskripsi
2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Rute Penerbangan Prediksi
Penumpang 105 112 131 151 177 206
Harian per hari

BNT-BDG 29 31 36 42 49 57
BNT-DPS 22 23 27 31 36 42
BNT-HLM 21 22 26 30 35 41
BNT-YOG 15 16 19 22 26 30
BNT-SUB 11 12 14 16 19 22
BNT-MDN 7 8 9 10 12 14
PERGERAKAN
PESAWAT
BNT-BDG M-25 1 1 - - - -
M-50 - - 1 1 1 -
M-75 - - - - - 1
Total Pax (Demand) 29 31 36 42 49 57
Total Available Seat 24 24 50 50 50 75
Load Faktor 1,22 1,3 0,73 0,85 0,98 0,76
BNT-DPS M-50 1 1 1 1 1 1
Total Pax (Demand) 22 23 27 31 36 42
Total Available Seat 50 50 50 50 50 50
Load Faktor 0,43 0,46 0,54 0,62 0,72 0,84
BNT-HLM M-50 1 1 1 1 1 1
Total Pax (Demand) 21 22 26 30 35 41
Total Available Seat 50 50 50 50 50 50
Load Faktor 0,42 0,45 0,52 0,61 0,71 0,82
BNT-YOG M-50 1 1 1 1 1 1
Total Pax (Demand) 15 16 19 22 26 30
Total Available Seat 50 50 50 50 50 50
Load Faktor 0,31 0,33 0,38 0,45 0,52 0,6
BNT-SUB M-50 1 1 1 1 1 1
Total Pax (Demand) 11 12 14 16 19 22
Total Available Seat 50 50 50 50 50 50
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Load Faktor 0,23 0,24 0,28 0,33 0,38 0,44

BNT-MDN M-75 1 1 1 1 1 1
Total Pax (Demand) 7 8 9 10 12 14
Total Available Seat 75 75 75 75 75 75
Load Faktor 0,1 0,1 0,12 0,14 0,16 0,19

Tabel 5.10 Proyeksi Pergerakan Pesawat Harian 2 Arah Per Rute Pola Rute (2)

Tahun
Deskripsi
2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Rute Penerbangan Prediksi
Penumpang 105 112 131 151 177 206
Harian per hari

BNT-BDG 29 31 36 42 49 57
BNT-DPS 22 23 27 31 36 42
BNT-HLM 21 22 26 30 35 41
BNT-YOG 15 16 19 22 26 30
BNT-SUB 11 12 14 16 19 22
BNT-MDN 7 8 9 10 12 14
PERGERAKAN
PESAWAT
BNT-BDG-YOG M-25 - - - - - -
M-50 1 1 1 - - -
M-75 - - - 1 1 1
Total Pax (Demand) 45 48 56 65 75 87
Total Available Seat 50 50 50 75 75 75
Load Faktor 0,90 0,95 1,11 0,86 1,00 1,16
BNT-SUB-DPS M-50 1 1 1 1 - -
Total Pax (Demand) - - - - 1 1
Total Available Seat 33 35 41 48 55 64
Load Faktor 0,66 0,70 0,82 0,95 0,74 0,85
BNT-HLM M-50 1 1 1 1 1 1
Total Pax (Demand) 21 22 26 30 35 41
Total Available Seat 50 50 50 50 50 50
Load Faktor 0,42 0,45 0,52 0,61 0,71 0,82
BNT-MDN M-75 1 1 1 1 1 1
Total Pax (Demand) 7 8 9 10 12 14
Total Available Seat 75 75 75 75 75 75
Load Faktor 0,1 0,1 0,12 0,14 0,16 0,19
JUMLAH PERGERAKAN PESAWAT
1 1 2 2 3 3
HARIAN DENGAN LOAD FAKTOR > 0.70
Source: Consultant analyzed result year 2008

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Tabel 5.11 Rute dan Tahun Layak Terbang 2 Arah (Pola Rute 1)

RUTE Jenis Tahun Penerbangan dan Jumlah Pesawat

PENERBANGAN Pesawat 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
BNT-BDG M-25 1 1 - - - -
M-50 - - 1 1 1 -
M-75 - - - - - 1
BNT-DPS M-50 - - - - 1 1
BNT-HLM M-50 - - - - 1 1
BNT-YOG M-50 - - - - - -
BNT-SUB M-50 - - - - - -
BNT-MDN M-75 - - - - - -
JUMLAH PESAWAT M-25 1 1 - - - -
M-50 - - 1 1 3 2
M-75 - - - - - 1
TOTAL PESAWAT 1 1 1 1 3 3
Source: Consultant analyzed result year 2008

Tabel 5.12 Rute dan Tahun Layak Terbang 2 Arah (Pola Rute 2)

RUTE Jenis Tahun Penerbangan dan Jumlah Pesawat

PENERBANGAN Pesawat 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
BNT-BDG-YOG M-25 - - - - - -
M-50 1 1 1 - - -
M-75 - - - 1 1 1
BNT-SUB-DPS M-50 - - 1 1 - -
M-75 - - - - 1 1
BNT-HLM M-50 - - - - 1 1
BNT-MDN M-75 - - - - - -
JUMLAH PESAWAT M-25 - - - - - -
M-50 1 1 2 1 1 1
M-75 - - - 1 2 2
TOTAL PESAWAT 1 1 2 2 3 3
Source: Consultant analyzed result year 2008

From result of visible above air transport route analysis that: Airport Banten Selatan at route pattern 1
actually starts can operate on the year 2008 with route Banten-Bandung applies type plane M-25 with
capacities 25 seat. This thing seen from amounts demand which is available in the year. While for route
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pattern 2 can start operates on the year 2008 with route Banten-Bandung-Yogyakarta applies plane
type M-50.

5.3.3 Analisis Pergerakan Penumpang dan Pesawat Jam Sibuk

Movement analysis of passenger at the time of busy hours distributed from result of annual passenger
analysis by dividing annual passenger with number 365 ( number of days in 1 year) to get daily
passenger. prediction of Passenger at the time of busy hours is done with approach of formulation as
follows:
Vp = Mc x Cp

Cp = (1.38 / )

Dimana:
Vp : jumlah Penumpang Pada Saat Jam Sibuk
Mc :Jumlah Penumpang Harian
Md :Jumlah Pesawat Harian
Cp :Koefisien Pada Saat Jam Sibuk

Tabel 5.13 Pergerakan Penumpang Pada Saat Jam Sibuk (2 Arah) Terhadap Total
Penumpang
Tahun
Deskripsi
2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Vol. Penumpang Harian 106 113 131 153 178 206
Pergerakan Pswt Harian 1 1 1 1 3 3
Koefisien Pnp Jam Sibuk 1,38 1,38 1,38 1,38 0,80 0,80
Vol. Penumpang Pada Saat
146 156 181 211 142 164
Jam Sibuk
Source: Consultant analyzed result year 2008

Tabel 5.14 Pergerakan Penumpang Pada Saat Jam Sibuk (2 Arah) Terhadap Rute yang
Dilayani
Tahun
Deskripsi
2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Vol. Penumpang yg dilayani Harian 29 31 36 42 120 140
Pergerakan Pswt Harian 1 1 1 1 3 3
Koefisien Pnp Jam Sibuk 1,38 1,38 1,38 1,38 0,80 0,80

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COMPILATION WORK OF DETAIL ENGINEERING DESIGN OF SOUTHERN BANTEN AIRPORT AIRSIDE FACILITY
 CHAPTER 5 AIR TRANSPORT REQUEST ANALYSIS

Vol. Penumpang Pada Saat

40 43 50 58 96 112
Jam Sibuk
Source: Consultant analyzed result year 2008

Tabel 5.15 Pergerakan Pesawat Pada Saat Jam Sibuk (2 Arah)

Tahun
Jenis Pesawat
2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
M-25 6 6
M-50 4 4 3 2
M-75 1
Jumlah Pesawat Jam Sibuk 40 43 50 58 96 112
Total Pax (Demand) 146 156 181 211 142 164
Total Available Seat 150 150 200 200 150 175
Load Factor 0,98 1,04 0,91 1,06 0,94 0,94
Source: Consultant analyzed result year 2008

5.3.4 Cargo Volume Forecast Analysises

From Formulation using variable PDRB per capita Provinsi Banten as base calculation growth of cargo
volume, hence scored a point [by] growth of pertahun as follows:

Tabel 5.16 Angka Pertumbuhan Volume Kargo

PERTUMBUHAN
TAHUN PESIMIS MODERAT OPTIMIS
(%) (%) (%)
2008 - - -
2010 1,14 2,42 5,78
2015 1,14 2,42 5,03
2020 1,14 2,42 4,78
2025 1,14 2,42 4,78
2030 1,14 2,42 4,78

Tabel 5.17 Proyeksi Volume Kargo Tahunan

VOLUME KARGO TAHUNAN

TAHUN
PESIMIS MODERAT OPTIMIS
2008 2,333 2,333 2,333
2009 2,360 2,389 2,468

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COMPILATION WORK OF DETAIL ENGINEERING DESIGN OF SOUTHERN BANTEN AIRPORT AIRSIDE FACILITY
 CHAPTER 5 AIR TRANSPORT REQUEST ANALYSIS

VOLUME KARGO TAHUNAN

TAHUN
PESIMIS MODERAT OPTIMIS
2010 2,386 2,447 2,610
2011 2,414 2,507 2,761
2012 2,441 2,567 2,921
2013 2,469 2,629 3,090
2014 2,497 2,693 3,245
2015 2,526 2,758 3,408
2016 2,554 2,825 3,580
2017 2,584 2,893 3,760
2018 2,613 2,963 3,949
2019 2,643 3,035 4,138
2020 2,673 3,108 4,336
2021 2,703 3,184 4,543
2022 2,734 3,261 4,760
2023 2,765 3,340 4,988
2024 2,797 3,420 5,226
2025 2,829 3,503 5,476
2026 2,861 3,588 5,738
2027 2,894 3,675 6,012
2028 2,927 3,764 6,299
2029 2,960 3,855 6,600
2030 2,994 3,948 6,916
Source: Consultant analyzed result year 2008

Gambar 5.2 Grafik Proyeksi Volume Kargo Tahunan

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COMPILATION WORK OF DETAIL ENGINEERING DESIGN OF SOUTHERN BANTEN AIRPORT AIRSIDE FACILITY