Strength Random Variables: Loading Random Variables:
Tensile strength; Normal upstream reservoir elevation;
Peak cohesion; Flood upstream reservoir increase;
Residual cohesion; Silt elevation;
Peak friction coefficient; Silt volumetric weight;
Residual friction coefficient; Drain efficiency;
Floating debris;
Ice load;
Last applied force;
Horizontal peak ground acceleration.
Figure 7. Probabilistic analysis input data.
1x10-2 1
Probability of failure (sliding mode)
Annual frequency of exceedance
0.8
1x10-3
Annual frequency 0.6
of exceedence
of reservoir elevation
0.4
-4
1x10
Probability 0.2
of failure
1x10-5 0
30.6 30.8 31 31.2 31.4 31.6 31.8
Reservoir elevation (m)
Figure 8. Probabilistic safety analyses.
10