HOUSING TRENDS AND AFFORDABILITY | SEPTEMBER 2018 HOUSING TRENDS AND AFFORDABILITY | MARCH 2018

HOUSING TRENDS AND AFFORDABILITY

September 2018

Rising interest rates continue to squeeze affordability in Canada

 RBC’s affordability measure hasn’t been this bad since 1990. The
ownership costs to carry a home bought in the second quarter of 2018 RBC Housing Affordability Measures - Canada
would have taken up 53.9% of a typical household’s income. This is up Ownership costs as % of median household income
60
sharply from 43.2% three years ago. Single-detached
Aggregate

 Blame interest rates for the rise in ownership costs in the past Aggregate long-term average
Condo apartment
50
year. Mortgage rates increased in each of the past four quarters and
accounted for the entire rise in RBC’s aggregate measure for Canada
over that period. 40

 Unaffordability is off the charts in Vancouver, Toronto and now

Victoria. Interest rates have a big impact in these high-priced markets.
30
The situation is much less strained in other markets, although afforda-
bility deteriorated in all markets in Canada in the past year.
 It’ll probably get worse. We expect further interest rate hikes in the 20
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
period ahead. This is poised to drive ownership costs even higher
across Canada. Household income increases will soften the blow for buyers.

The share of income a household would need to cover ownership costs (in %)
Canada Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Toronto Ottawa Montreal

53.9 88.4 43.9 28.4 75.9 38.6 44.1

Second quarter 2018

All about interest rates

Higher interest rates were the swing factor behind the loss of affordability in the past year
Annual percentage-point change in RBC's aggregate measure for Canada and interest rates' contribution to the change From overheating to correction to
10 the onset of recovery, we’ve seen
Interest rates' contribution to change (in percentage points)
pretty much everything in the past
Annual change in the aggregate measure (in percentage points)
three years in Canada’s housing
5
market. Yet an eye-watering loss
of affordability has been a con-
0 stant. Over that period, RBC’s
aggregate measure jumped by 10
-5 percentage points to 53.9%, its
highest level since 1990s (a rise
in the measure represents a loss
-10
of affordability). Surging prices in
Vancouver and Toronto jacked up
-15
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
ownership costs substantially be-
tween 2015 and early 2017. Since
Source: RPS, Royal LePage, Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, RBC Economics Research
the middle of 2017, it’s been rising

Craig Wright | Chief Economist | 416-974-7457 | craig.wright@rbc.com

Robert Hogue | Senior Economist | 416-974-6192 | robert.hogue@rbc.com

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HOUSING TRENDS AND AFFORDABILITY | SEPTEMBER 2018 HOUSING TRENDS AND AFFORDABILITY | MARCH 2018

interest rates that have been the main factor squeezing affordability. We’ve seen a material rise in mortgage rates since the Bank of
Canada launched its hiking campaign in July 2017 and this kept ownership costs on a steep upward trajectory despite home prices
stabilizing. The higher borrowing costs in fact accounted for virtually the entire 2.6 percentage-point increase in RBC’s measure in the
past year and most of the 1.1 percentage point advance in the second quarter of 2018. Add the stress test on top of this and the pic-
ture gets even more daunting for many Canadian buyers. Clearly, affordability—or rather, the lack thereof—remains a big issue in
some of Canada’s major markets.

High-priced markets now face the worst affordability conditions ever...

Unsurprisingly, ownership costs rose the most in high-priced markets last quarter. That’s because mortgage payments are very sensi-
tive to interest rates in these markets. RBC’s aggregate measure increased by 1.6 percentage points 88.4% in the Vancouver area,
1.8 percentage points to 75.9% in the Toronto area and 2.4 percentage points to 65.0% in Victoria. These represented the worst ever
levels on record since the mid-1980s in all three markets. No wonder the current generation of local buyers feels overwhelmed—no
other generation has faced as much affordability pressure in this country.

...though higher interest rates affected nearly all markets

Of course, the impact of rising interest rates extended far beyond the boundaries of Vancouver, Toronto and Victoria. All markets that
we track experienced a loss of affordability over the past year arising primarily (albeit not exclusively) from higher interest rates. Only
St. John’s saw a marginal improvement in the second quarter due to weak market conditions and a drop in prices. For the most part,
the rise in RBC’s aggregate measure was modest and levels remain close to historical norms. So ownership costs continue to be
manageable in the majority of local markets in Canada. Montreal could become an exception, though, if prices accelerate further in
the area. RBC’s measure for Montreal is above its long-run average by a fairly wide margin, which could be a sign that affordability
pressures are building.

Condo affordability is slipping fast

One interesting development over the past year is that affordability eroded more for condos than for single-detached homes in Cana-
da. This reflected a sharp turn of events in the Toronto area where detached home prices fell (following a significant run-up the previ-
ous year) while condo prices continued to rise rapidly. Demand for condos has been fueled by affordability issues plaguing the single-
detached segment that diverted buyers toward lower-priced housing categories. This phenomenon subsided somewhat in the second
quarter of 2018, as single-detached home prices began to rise again and condo price gains slowed.

No real relief in sight

The outlook for affordability isn’t very promising. We expect the Bank of Canada to proceed with further rate hikes that will raise its
overnight rate from 1.50% currently to 2.25% in the first half of 2019. This will keep mortgage rates under upward pressure and boost
ownership costs even more across Canada in the period ahead. We estimate that, everything else remaining constant, a 75 basis-
point increase in mortgage rates would lift RBC’s aggregate affordability measure for Canada by roughly 2.8 percentage points. Grow-
ing household income will provide some partial offset. So potential buyers hoping to get a meaningful break will likely be disappointed.
We expect intensifying affordability pressures to restrain homebuyer demand over the coming year.

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HOUSING TRENDS AND AFFORDABILITY | SEPTEMBER 2018 HOUSING TRENDS AND AFFORDABILITY | MARCH 2018

British Columbia RBC Housing Affordability Measures

Victoria – Joining the unaffordable club

The boom that propelled prices to mountain-high levels over the past two and
Victoria
a half years gave Victoria its ticket to Canada’s unaffordable market club. Ownership costs as % of median household income
80
RBC’s aggregate affordability measure for Victoria deteriorated sharply over
that period, including in the second quarter when it recorded the biggest in-
60
crease (2.4 percentage points) among the markets that we track in Canada. At
65.0%, the measure is the third highest in the country after Vancouver and
40
Toronto. Poor affordability, the mortgage stress test and other market-cooling
measures introduced by the BC government have weighed heavily on buyers
20
this year. Home resales fell 20% over the first eight months.

Vancouver area – Calling it a crisis is no exaggeration 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

The word ‘crisis’ is often being used these days to describe the affordability
situation in the Vancouver area. And why not—RBC’s aggregate measure is at Vancouver Area
Ownership costs as % of median household income
a never-seen-before level (88.4%) anywhere in Canada, and continuing to rise 120

rapidly (up 8.2 percentage points in the past year, including a 1.6 percentage 100
point rise in the second quarter). Buying a single-detached home is for the rich
80
only (it would take almost 120% of a typical household’s income to cover own-
ership costs). And settling for a condo also increasingly looks like a luxury for 60

many. Worse, the situation is poised to deteriorate further as interest rates 40

continue to rise. This means that rental housing will become the only viable
20
option for a growing proportion of households. Whether the record 8,100 rental
units currently under construction will meet that demand is an open question. 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Alberta Calgary
Ownership costs as % of median household income
80

Calgary – Homebuyers don't get a break

Rising interest rates are depriving Calgary homebuyers from the benefits of 60

stagnating home prices. Higher rates have boosted home ownership costs in
the past year and kept RBC’s aggregate affordability measure on a modest 40

upward trajectory. The measure rose by 1.1 percentage points to 43.9% in the
second quarter—just above the long-run average of 41.0%. While not as ex- 20

pensive as in Vancouver, Toronto and Victoria, Calgary home prices are still
among the highest in the country. This makes ownership costs in the area 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
quite sensitive to interest rate hikes. It also means that the mortgage stress
test has a greater impact than in lower-priced markets, which has been a key Edmonton
Ownership costs as % of median household income
factor depressing home resale activity in Calgary this year. 80

Edmonton – Don't blame affordability for the market's softness 60

Affordability pressures still aren’t a big issue in Edmonton. RBC’s aggregate
measure for the area, at 28.4% in the second quarter, remains well below its 40

long-term average of 34.1% despite rising slightly by 0.5 percentage points

from the first quarter. Buyers appear to be unimpressed, however. Many of 20

them opted for the sidelines this year, which drove home resales to a seven-
year low in the second quarter. The degree of softness was surprising consid-
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
ering the steady progress in the provincial economy’s recovery. The new
stress test could well be the factor sending buyers to the sidelines. Source: RPS, Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Royal LePage, RBC
Economic Research

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HOUSING TRENDS AND AFFORDABILITY | SEPTEMBER 2018 HOUSING TRENDS AND AFFORDABILITY | MARCH 2018

RBC Housing Affordability Measures Saskatchewan

Saskatoon – Tentative signs of a turnaround
At last, there have been tentative signs lately that Saskatoon’s market is be-
Saskatoon
Ownership costs as % of median household income ginning to turn around. Home resale activity picked up this summer and, per-
60
haps more importantly, demand and supply are finally coming back into bal-
ance. Unsold inventories have come down materially from elevated levels pre-
40 viously and no longer pose a concern. Gradual improvement in the area’s job
market certainly plays a positive role in revitalizing homebuyer demand. Af-
fordability isn’t really an issue at this stage. RBC’s aggregate affordability
20
measure remains close to its long-run average so it’s unlikely to be swaying
buyers one way or another. The measure inched slightly higher by 0.5 percent-
age points to 34.0% in the second quarter.
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Regina – Struggles persist

Regina
Ownership costs as % of median household income Recent signs haven’t been as encouraging in Regina’s market as they were in
60
Saskatoon. Resale activity in Regina continues to trend lower and inventories
remain plentiful. Sellers still hold a strong hand in setting prices in the current
40
environment. Like in Saskatoon, though, affordability isn’t likely to be a central
issue for buyers at the moment. Despite a slight uptick in the past couple of
quarters, the share of income required to carry ownership costs is well within
20 historical norms—as it has been for several years. RBC’s aggregate measure
rose by 0.5 percentage points to 30.5% in the second quarter. A setback in
Regina’s job market since spring no doubt is a bigger worry for buyers.
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Manitoba
Winnipeg
Ownership costs as % of median household income
60 Winnipeg – Landing softly
Winnipeg’s market is landing softly this year after reaching record-high sales
levels in 2016 and 2017. This is unfolding in an orderly fashion with demand
40
and supply remaining in balance. Still, there has been a modest increase in
the for-sale inventory, which is helping to keep price pressures at bay. Buying
20 a home is generally affordable in the Winnipeg area. In the aggregate, owner-
ship costs represented 30.5% of household income in the second quarter.
Although this was up 0.6 percentage points from the first quarter, it was still
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 within striking distance of the long-run average of 29.2% in the area.

Toronto Area
Ontario
Ownership costs as % of median household income
100 Toronto area – Here we go again
In the end, the affordability relief Toronto-area homebuyers got late last year
80
and early this year was both small and short-lived. It all went up in smoke in
60 the second quarter when RBC’s aggregate measure resumed its upward tra-
jectory with a 1.8 percentage-point rise. So homebuyers must spend a record
40
share of their income again (75.9% in the aggregate!) to cover ownership
20
costs. The reason for the deterioration isn’t so much that prices appreciated—
although they did slightly after three quarterly declines—but rather because
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
higher interest rates raised mortgage carrying costs. The prospect of further
rate hikes doesn’t bode well for buyers in the period ahead. Affordability pres-
Source: RPS, Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Royal LePage, RBC sures are likely to become an even bigger issue for them, which we believe will
Economic Research limit how much home resale activity will rebound from its recent cyclical low.

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HOUSING TRENDS AND AFFORDABILITY | SEPTEMBER 2018 HOUSING TRENDS AND AFFORDABILITY | MARCH 2018

Ottawa – Good times keep rolling in the nation's capital RBC Housing Affordability Measures
There’s definitely a buzz about Ottawa’s market this year. Home resales and
prices are both up from a year ago, and demand-supply conditions are as tight
as they’ve been in the area in nearly a decade. Contrary to the experience in
most other markets in Canada, the volatility generated by the new stress early in Ottawa
Ownership costs as % of median household income
the year dissipated quickly in Ottawa. Ownership costs are on the rise but buy- 60

ers don’t seem to mind at this point. A strong regional job market has kept their
confidence up at very healthy levels. RBC’s aggregate affordability measure
40
rose for a fifth-straight time in the second quarter. The 0.7 percentage-point in-
crease took the measure to 38.6%, or just a little above its 36.4% long-run aver-
age. Further deterioration is likely in the near term given the market’s current 20

tightness.

Quebec 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Montreal area – Could affordability trouble be near? Montreal Area

Ownership costs as % of median household income
The vigour of Montreal’s housing market continues to impress. Home resales 60

keep extending their record streak and prices keep climbing at a measured
pace. Montreal’s strong economy clearly maintains a positive environment for
40
the market at this stage. Yet some affordability issues could be lurking beneath
the surface. Ownership costs have risen steadily over the past three years.
RBC’s aggregate measure reached an eight-year high of 44.1% in the second 20
quarter following a 0.7 percentage-point increase in the latest period. Further
deviation from the long-run average of 38.6% could signal problematic condi-
tions for some buyers. Affordability pressures in Montreal, however, would still 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

pale in comparison to those prevailing in Vancouver, Toronto and Victoria.

Quebec City
Quebec City – Re-energized 60
Ownership costs as % of median household income

Quebec City’s market showed more energy since spring after a listless winter
marked by flat resales. Activity picked up in the second quarter with sales ad-
vances recorded in both the single-detached and condo segments. Yet still- 40

plentiful for-sale inventories kept buyers largely in charge of the haggling over
prices. This led to the same outcome as in the past six years—minimal proper-
20
ty appreciation. Buyers therefore continue to benefit from a fairly stable afford-
ability picture in the area. RBC’s aggregate measure increased slightly for only
the third time in the past two years in the second quarter, inching up by 0.4
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
percentage points to 33.1%.

Atlantic Canada Saint John

Ownership costs as % of median household income
60
Saint John – Regaining its footing
Saint John’s market has regained its footing after a slow start to the year when
the new stress test and turbulence in the local job market dampened activity. 40

Home resales rebounded solidly by more than 9% in the second quarter,

which reversed most of the 15% drop in the first quarter. This tightened de-
20
mand-supply conditions and further drew down inventories. Active listings in
the area in fact reached a decade low in August. This will eventually lend
stronger support to home prices. For now, price pressures remain contained.
This keeps Saint John as the most affordable market that we track. RBC’s 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

aggregate measure for the area was 26.8% in the second quarter, up 0.4 per- Source: RPS, Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Royal LePage, RBC
centage points from the first quarter. Economic Research

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HOUSING TRENDS AND AFFORDABILITY | SEPTEMBER 2018 HOUSING TRENDS AND AFFORDABILITY | MARCH 2018

RBC Housing Affordability Measures Halifax – Holding up well all-round

Halifax’s market is holding up well so far this year. It’s been one of the few
markets in Canada unfazed (or just barely fazed) by the new stress test. Home
resales are on pace for a fourth-straight annual gain. Demand-supply condi-
Halifax tions are even a little tight now and for-sale inventories reached at multi-year
Ownership costs as % of median household income
60 lows this summer. This is beginning to heat up property values albeit from rela-
tively low temperatures. A slight firming of price gains and higher interest rates
boosted ownership costs somewhat in the second quarter. RBC’s aggregate
40
affordability measure rose by 0.7 percentage points to 33.4%—effectively on
par with the long-term average of 33.2%. Affordability considerations don’t
20
appear to be an impediment for Halifax buyers at this stage and are unlikely to
become an obstacle in the near term.

St. John's – Bucking the trend—not for the right reasons

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
St. John’s was the only market that we track where affordability improved in
St. John's the second quarter—though just barely. RBC’s aggregate measure for the
Ownership costs as % of median household income
60 area fell marginally by 0.1 percentage points to 26.9%, nearly tying Saint-
John’s 26.8% as the lowest measure in Canada. Yet it will take much more
than that to get local buyers hopping. Buyers’ focus no doubt continues to be
40 on the area’s job prospects, which continue to disappoint. The improvement in
affordability last quarter essentially reflects St. John’s weak housing market
fundamentals. Soft homebuyer demand and plenty of homes available for sale
20
apply intense downward pressure on property values. Unfortunately, we see
little in the near term that would turn such fundamentals around.

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Source: RPS, Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Royal LePage, RBC

Economic Research

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HOUSING TRENDS AND AFFORDABILITY | SEPTEMBER 2018 HOUSING TRENDS AND AFFORDABILITY | MARCH 2018

How the RBC Housing Affordability Summary tables

Measures work Aggregate of all categories
Price RBC Housing Affordability Measure
The RBC Housing Affordability Measures show the Market Q2 2018 Q/Q Y/Y Q2 2018 Q/Q Y/Y Avg. since '85
proportion of median pre-tax household income that ($) % ch. % ch. (%) Ppt. ch. Ppt. ch. (%)
would be required to service the cost of mortgage pay- Canada 566,600 1.4 2.4 53.9 1.1 2.6 42.0
ments (principal and interest), property taxes, and utili- Victoria 802,100 2.4 8.1 65.0 2.4 6.9 44.8
ties based on the average market price for single-family Vancouver area 1,149,600 0.4 6.1 88.4 1.6 8.2 59.6
Calgary 511,600 1.4 2.0 43.9 1.1 2.4 41.0
detached homes and condo apartments, as well as for
Edmonton 409,000 0.6 0.7 28.4 0.5 1.2 34.1
an overall aggregate of all housing types in a given Saskatoon 367,600 0.1 -0.4 34.0 0.5 1.5 33.1
market. Regina 328,900 0.5 0.4 30.5 0.5 1.5 28.1
Winnipeg 308,000 1.9 1.6 30.5 0.6 1.2 29.2
Current home prices are sourced from RPS, and estab- Toronto area 861,300 1.7 -2.2 75.9 1.8 0.4 50.1
lished from sales prices from monthly transactions, Ottawa 432,700 1.4 5.0 38.6 0.7 2.1 36.4
which are filtered to remove extreme values and other Montreal area 406,600 1.2 5.1 44.1 0.7 2.4 38.6
outliers. Quebec City 296,400 0.8 1.5 33.1 0.4 0.8 30.7
Saint John 213,100 1.2 0.7 26.8 0.4 0.5 26.6
The aggregate of all categories includes information on Halifax 322,200 1.3 1.2 33.4 0.7 1.9 33.2
prices for housing styles not covered in this report (semi St. John's 310,700 -0.6 0.9 26.9 -0.1 1.4 27.4
-detached, row houses, townhouses and plexes) in Single-family detached
addition to prices for single-family detached homes and Price RBC Housing Affordability Measure
condominium apartments. In general, single-family de- Market Q2 2018 Q/Q Y/Y Q2 2018 Q/Q Y/Y Avg. since '85
tached homes and condo apartments represent the bulk ($) % ch. % ch. (%) Ppt. ch. Ppt. ch. (%)
Canada 620,700 1.1 1.4 59.3 1.1 2.4 44.7
of the owned housing stock across Canadian markets.
Victoria 879,400 2.0 7.8 71.2 2.2 7.4 47.9
The affordability measures are based on a 25% down Vancouver area 1,582,200 -0.7 2.3 119.9 1.0 7.5 70.9
Calgary 562,500 1.2 2.4 48.2 1.1 2.7 44.0
payment, a 25-year mortgage loan at a five-year fixed
Edmonton 436,200 0.9 1.3 30.5 0.6 1.4 35.9
rate, and are estimated on a quarterly basis for 14 ma-
Saskatoon 383,800 -0.1 -0.7 36.1 0.4 1.5 34.9
jor urban markets in Canada and a national composite. Regina 334,200 0.5 0.8 31.8 0.5 1.6 29.4
The measures use household income rather than family Winnipeg 317,500 2.7 3.2 32.1 0.8 1.7 30.4
income to account for the growing number of unat- Toronto area 1,044,600 1.4 -3.5 91.3 2.0 -0.6 58.3
tached individuals in the housing market. The measure Ottawa 474,700 1.6 5.4 42.9 0.8 2.5 39.7
Montreal area 407,200 1.2 5.8 45.2 0.7 2.7 38.5
is based on quarterly estimates of this annual income,
Quebec City 306,700 0.6 1.4 35.1 0.3 0.7 31.4
created by annualizing and weighting average weekly
Saint John 221,000 1.4 0.7 28.6 0.4 0.5 29.2
earnings by province and by urban area. (Median Halifax 332,000 1.8 2.0 35.1 0.8 2.2 33.7
household income is used instead of the arithmetic St. John's 322,000 0.2 1.0 28.4 0.0 1.4 28.7
mean to avoid distortions caused by extreme values at
either end of the income distribution scale. The median Condominium apartment
represents the value below and above which lays an Price RBC Housing Affordability Measure
equal number of observations.) Market Q2 2018 Q/Q Y/Y Q2 2018 Q/Q Y/Y Avg. since '85
($) % ch. % ch. (%) Ppt. ch. Ppt. ch. (%)
The RBC Housing Affordability Measure is based on Canada 454,800 2.1 9.9 42.8 1.2 4.5 34.1
gross household income estimates and, therefore, does Victoria 477,800 0.6 7.7 40.0 0.8 4.0 31.9
not show the effect of various provincial property-tax Vancouver area 662,600 1.4 15.5 52.5 1.4 8.2 39.4
Calgary 290,500 0.5 -2.1 27.1 0.5 0.6 27.2
credits, which could alter relative levels of affordability.
Edmonton 260,400 0.9 -2.5 19.1 0.3 0.3 22.4
Saskatoon 217,100 1.8 -5.6 21.2 0.5 0.1 21.5
The higher the measure, the more difficult it is to afford
Regina 227,700 0.5 -3.9 21.5 0.4 0.4 21.8
a home. For example, an affordability measure of 50%
Winnipeg 240,100 -2.6 0.1 23.5 -0.4 0.7 22.7
means that home ownership costs, including mortgage Toronto area 516,300 3.1 10.7 46.6 1.6 4.8 31.9
payments, utilities, and property taxes take up 50% of a Ottawa 302,800 1.8 1.9 26.7 0.5 0.9 24.5
typical household’s pre-tax income. Montreal area 331,300 1.2 5.3 35.4 0.6 2.1 32.5
Quebec City 229,100 -0.2 -2.3 24.7 0.1 -0.1 24.0
Saint John n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Halifax 344,000 -3.2 9.8 33.3 -0.6 4.0 27.4
St. John's 237,600 -6.5 -9.9 20.4 -1.1 -0.7 23.3

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HOUSING TRENDS AND AFFORDABILITY | SEPTEMBER 2018 HOUSING TRENDS AND AFFORDABILITY | MARCH 2018

Mortgage carrying costs by city

Our standard RBC Housing Affordability Measure captures the proportion of median pre-tax household income required to service the
cost of a mortgage on an existing housing unit at market prices, including principal and interest, property taxes and utilities; the modi-
fied measure used here includes the cost of servicing a mortgage, but excludes property taxes and utilities due to data constraint in
the smaller CMAs. This measure is based on a 25% down payment, a 25-year mortgage loan at a five-year fixed rate, and is estimat-
ed on a quarterly basis. The higher the measure, the more difficult it is to afford a house.

The dashed line represents the long-term average for the market.
Source: RPS, Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Royal LePage, RBC Economics Research

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HOUSING TRENDS AND AFFORDABILITY | SEPTEMBER 2018 HOUSING TRENDS AND AFFORDABILITY | MARCH 2018

Aggregate home price

Source: RPS, RBC Economics Research

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HOUSING TRENDS AND AFFORDABILITY | SEPTEMBER 2018 HOUSING TRENDS AND AFFORDABILITY | MARCH 2018

Home sales-to-new listings ratio

Source: Canadian Real Estate Association, RBC Economics Research

The material contained in this report is the property of Royal Bank of Canada and may not be reproduced in any way, in whole or in part, without ex-
press authorization of the copyright holder in writing. The statements and statistics contained herein have been prepared by RBC Economics Research
based on information from sources considered to be reliable. We make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or com-
pleteness. This publication is for the information of investors and business persons and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy secu-
rities.
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