The most general definition of climate change is a change in the statistical properties (principally
its mean and spread)[7] of the climate system when considered over long periods of time,
regardless of cause.[8] Accordingly, fluctuations over periods shorter than a few decades, such
as El Niño, do not represent climate change.
Climate change is a change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns when that change
lasts for an extended period of time (i.e., decades to millions of years). Climate change may refer
to a change in average weather conditions, or in the time variation of weather within the context
of longer-term average conditions. Climate change is caused by factors such as biotic processes,
variations in solar radiation received by Earth, plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions. Certain
human activities have been identified as primary causes of ongoing climate change, often
referred to as global warming.[1] There is no general agreement in scientific, media or policy
documents as to the precise term to be used to refer to anthropogenic forced change; either
"global warming" or "climate change" may be used.[2][3][4]
Scientists actively work to understand past and future climate by using observations and
theoretical models. A climate record—extending deep into the Earth's past—has been
assembled, and continues to be built up, based on geological evidence
from boreholetemperature profiles, cores removed from deep accumulations of
ice, floral and faunal records, glacial and periglacial processes, stable-isotope and other
analyses of sediment layers, and records of past sea levels. More recent data are provided by
the instrumental record. General circulation models, based on the physical sciences, are often
used in theoretical approaches to match past climate data, make future projections, and link
causes and effects in climate change.
Factors that can shape climate are called climate forcings or "forcing mechanisms".[5] These can
be either "internal" or "external". Internal forcing mechanisms are natural processes within the
climate system itself (e.g., the thermohaline circulation). External forcing mechanisms can be
either anthropogenic—caused by humans—(e.g. increased emissions of greenhouse gases and
dust) or natural (e.g., changes in solar output, the earth's orbit, volcano eruptions).
Physical evidence to observe climate change includes a range of parameters. Global records of
surface temperature are available beginning from the mid-late 19th century. For earlier periods,
most of the evidence is indirect—climatic changes are inferred from changes in proxies,
indicators that reflect climate, such as ice cores,[6] dendrochronology, sea level change,
and glacial geology. Other physical evidence includes arctic sea ice decline, cloud cover and
precipitation, vegetation, animals and historical and archaeological evidence.