Social Gaming: Fast Growth Insights
Social Gaming: Fast Growth Insights
Sector Update
SOCIAL GAMING: THE FASTEST GROWING SEGMENT OF
March 2010
THE GAMES MARKET
Games & Social Media
INTRODUCTION
High
AAA
Social
Games
MMORPG
Revenue
Potential
iPhone AA
Low
Low High
Cost of
Development
Source: GP Bullhound
As shown by the above exhibit, social games are significantly less costly to
develop than traditional console and PC games. Whereas top PC / console triple-
A “mega titles” and MMORPGs (Massively Multiplayer Online Role-Playing
Games) may take $50-100 million to develop (not including marketing budgets),
social games today typically cost $100–200K to develop and can be produced in
3–6 months. While there will always be a solid market for big budget triple-A titles
such as Call of Duty (which had an estimated development cost of $40 - $50
million and generated sales of over $1.0 billion in the first two months, according
to the Los Angeles Times), these games are also much riskier, as they may not
produce a hit but have large budgets. Over time, we expect to see much of the
investment capital funding the double-A and single-A titles to move toward lower
cost platforms like iPhone and Social where development costs and risks are low
but revenue potential is still strong.
The deployment of social games through social networks enables their
development to be iterative throughout the game’s life span. In contrast to the
multi-volume franchises common to traditional games, social games can
continuously issue updates and upgrades with minimal additional capital
requirements. These iterations ensure that games remain exciting and relevant
to their constantly expanding audience while also improving monetization.
This iterative approach to game development and improvement means that
marketing budgets can cost anywhere from 50% of the cost of development for
less successful games to millions of dollars over many months for more
successful games. According to its CEO, Mark Pincus, Zynga, for example, spent
a couple million dollars just marketing the launch of FarmVille. Many social game
companies focus on the cost per install as a key metric for user acquisition. Cost
per install of 50 cents is the industry average with some of the larger players
reaching $2 to $3 per install for top games with large marketing budgets and good
monetization rates.
The existence of social games within social networks allows them to tap into the
viral nature of social media. Kristian Segerstrale, CEO of Playfish recently stated,
“Over 95% of our growth is viral. In fact, when we launched our first title…, we
started by inviting 100 of our own friends, and we’ve grown from there to over 60
million registered players across our games organically.”
Exhibit 3 – Social Gaming Viral Marketing Model
Social games generate user stickiness by allowing users to develop a virtual life
within the game, as farmers, mafia heads, or even builders of a virtual world. As
gamers interact within the game, they build stronger connections with both the
game itself and the other users, integrating their virtual world with everyday life.
According to industry sources, many users of FarmVille set alarms to wake-up at
the right time for harvesting.
Viral Factor
One key component to a social games’ success is its viral factor, the term used to
describe the growth rate, or distribution, of viral applications. A social game
having a viral factor of 1 is in a "steady state” of neither growth nor decline, while
a viral factor greater than 1 indicates exponential growth and a viral factor less
than 1 indicates exponential decline. This viral factor distribution measures how
many additional users, on average, a social game or application will gain from
each new user it acquires. For a game to be successful, it needs to have a viral
factor greater than 1 in order to take advantage of viral distribution which drives
exponential growth. A game’s viral factor, in addition to its retention rate and
ARPU are key components in determining a consumer’s lifetime value.
Success Factors
While the success of social games remains difficult to predict, we believe that the
following underlying factors are key to creating successful social games.
First, a simple game concept is a key factor for social game player acquisition.
Social games are appealing to many, particularly non-gamers, because of low
levels of complexity. Keeping games simple allows for easier viral distribution
within social networks because potential players are not alienated on the basis of
gaming skill level.
Second, games must leverage the “social” nature of social networking. Key to the
game’s viral marketing, the game should allow players to share their experiences
and interactively play with their friends.
Third, games should successfully build a dialogue with the player. That is, games
should provide live updates and drive users to incrementally check into the game.
Doing so will help keep the game front of mind for the player, helping to increase
stickiness.
Finally, we believe that social game developers must take advantage of the online
deployment model to continuously adjust and upgrade games so that they
continue to capture and maintain user interest. The ability for iterative
development remains a key distinguishing feature for social games, and
developers must leverage this advantage to keep titles fresh and relevant.
Competitive Landscape
An early pioneer in Facebook social gaming, Zynga currently dominates the
social games sector, with over 66.4 million daily active users and 42 social games
available on Facebook.
Exhibit 4 – Social Gaming Competitive Landscape for Market Leaders
70.0
In Millions of Daily Active Users
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10
success, with Happy Aquarium, Happy Island, and Happy Pets accounting for
97% of its daily active users from its 12-game offering.
With over 6.5 million daily active users and 17 games currently available on
Facebook, Playdom remains a strong competitor within the social gaming
marketplace, fueled by its acquisition of Lil’ Green Patch and Trippert Labs in
November 2009.
A macro look at the competitive landscape shows that these top game providers
account for a disproportionate share of active users and top games.
Exhibit 5 – Dominance of Major Social Gaming Players on Facebook
Rock You!
Playdom (3.8m)
(6.5m)
Crowdstar
(9.4m)
EA
(10.3m)
Zynga
(66.3m)
Source: GP Bullhound
Million
$3,500
International
$3,000
US
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
2009 2012
Source: GP Bullhound
Monetization Strategy
Most social games currently operate using a free-to-play model and generate
revenues through i) micro-transactions, ii) lead generation, iii) advertisements,
and iv) subscriptions. However, micro-transactions are the top monetization
strategy across the industry, accounting for approximately 80-90% of revenues for
the top players, according to industry sources. Examples of micro-transactions
include purchase of digital gifts, clothing or level increases.
The conversion rate from playing to paying users of social games remains
relatively low compared to more traditional games. Whereas most MMORPGs
report conversion rates of 5-10%, current conversion rates for social games lie
between 1-6%, with rates of 2-3% being considered “Average” and 5% or higher
considered “Good”.
Exhibit 8 – Social Gaming User Monetization
Monetized Users as a % of Total Rating
1% Poor
2‐3% Avera ge
4‐5% Good
Source: GP Bullhound
We believe that the monetization curve is concentrated within the top players.
Looking forward, we believe that new payment initiatives, such as Facebook
credit, mobile micropayment systems, and broader availability of prepaid cards
will help to boost micro-transactions rates.
Social game developers also derive a portion of revenues from lead generation
schemes within their games. Lead generation advertisers, such as TrialPay,
Offerpal, SuperRewards and Gambit, pay developers for the opportunity to
advertise within the game. Gamers are often given in-game incentives, like
virtual currency or goods, for accepting these offers / surveys. Research indicates
that the lead generation market within social games is currently worth
approximately $200 million and is estimated to grow to $363 million in 2012.
Exhibit 9 – Social Gaming Lead Generation Growth
$400
$350
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
2009 2012
Source: GP Bullhound
Risks
While Facebook’s large market size and ease of distribution benefits social game
developers, the dominant use of Facebook as the social gaming platform leaves
developers vulnerable to systemic changes. We believe the current symbiotic
relationship between Facebook and social game companies will become more
and more competitive over time. For example, Zynga is expected to generate
approximately $400 – 500 million in revenues in 2010 compared to $1 billion for
Facebook. In our view, Facebook will, at some point, need to begin charging a toll
or forcing social game companies to use their payment platform so they can
begin sharing in the spoils of revenues generated on their platform. To offset
some of these risks, developers should look to broaden their distribution
strategies, by deploying games and associated goods through large-scale
distribution channels.
Due in part to the rapid expansion of the industry, the demand for social game
developers currently outpaces the supply of strong talent. This developer
deficiency has spurred industry consolidation, as evidenced by Zynga’s
acquisition of Serious Business and Playdom’s acquisition Lil’ Green Patch.
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Lead generation revenues have recently been the subject of controversial debate,
as developers were criticized for “scamming” users into divulging personal
information or accepting disreputable marketing offers, in exchange for in-game
currency or virtual goods. Nevertheless, legitimate businesses, such as Netflix,
also use the same lead generation scheme to acquire users. Despite widespread
debates amongst the technology community surrounding lead generation, it is
difficult to discern whether the game players themselves hold a strong opinion on
the subject, and whether social games are actually losing players who have
become frustrated with the scheme.
FUTURE OUTLOOK
We expect the social gaming market to continue in a strong growth trajectory in
the near term. As the market expands, we anticipate further industry
consolidation, mirroring that of the traditional games industry.
Market Growth
Looking forward, we believe growth drivers of the social gaming industry will be: i)
Internet penetration, ii) social networking penetration, iii) gaming penetration, and
iv) ARPU.
Growth in Internet penetration lays the fundamental building block for growth in
the overall social gaming industry. According to Forrester, the number of Internet
users is expected to increase 3% to over 280 million users globally. This equates
to a global Internet penetration rate of 77%.
We expect the growth in Internet penetration to flow directly downwards to social
network penetration, and for social networks to continue to penetrate existing
Internet users. Accordingly, ThinkEquity predicts that by 2012, social network
penetration will increase from 63% to 70%.
Again, we believe that social games will gain momentum with both new and
existing social network users. Estimates predict that social network users will
grow by 10%, or 30 million users, within the next two years.
Lastly, we believe that strong ARPU rates will contribute to growth in the social
gaming marketplace. Although ARPU rates for social games currently lag behind
their traditional game counterparts, we expect new payments initiatives will close
the gap. Facebook is currently testing a universal payments system, which would
allow users to buy credits and spend them across multiple games. A highly
anticipated release, John Pleasants has equated this system to the impact of 1-
Click Ordering for Amazon.
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With increasing competition among social game players competing for users and
traffic, we expect the market to expand with richer game play experiences which
cost more and take longer to develop. We see a two central social game models
evolving and taking the lion’s share of users and revenues i) simple games
focused more around social interaction than true game play, and ii) more robust
games with rich user experience and sophisticated game play elements.
Rich Longer /
Game Play Higher
Experience
Spectrum
Time and
of Social
Cost of
Gaming
Development
Elements
Social Short /
Interaction Low
Today Future
Source: GP Bullhound
Industry Consolidation
In the upcoming years, we anticipate the social gaming industry to undergo
significant consolidation. Already, we have seen traditional gaming companies
address social gaming needs through acquisitions, as evidenced by EA’s
acquisition of Playfish. Additionally, we have seen social gaming companies
acquire other social gaming companies to achieve rapid growth, recruit developer
talent, obtain notable game titles, or gain experience in other platforms
(Facebook, Myspace, iPhone).
On a broader horizon, we expect industry consolidation within the social gaming
industry to mirror the consolidation that previously occurred in today’s traditional
gaming marketplace. Ultimately, we anticipate the social gaming sector will be
dominated by a select group of leading players, similar to the current broader
gaming sector.
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SECTOR VALUATIONS
Feb-10 Big Six Games, Inc. hi5 Netw orks, Inc. - - - Engages in development of social games and designs a
social gaming platform
Feb-10 Serious Business, Inc. Zynga, Inc. - - - Operates as a social gaming platform and produces
online games for the users
Jan-10 Mochi Media, Inc. Shanda Games Limited 80 - - Provides tools and services to support game developers
(NasdaqGS:GAME)
Nov-09 Trippert, Inc. and Green Patch, Inc. Playdom, Inc. - - - Offers social games through the Internet and iPhone
Nov-09 Playfish Limited Electronic Arts Nederland B.V. 391.26 5.3x - Develops and publishes video games for social netw orks
Sep-09 MatchMove Games Pte. Ltd. Vickers Venture Partners - - - Provides online game services for computer gamers in
Southeast Asia by sourcing game content, operating
game tournaments, enabling social gaming netw orks, and
processing online payments
Aug-09 Tw oFish, Inc. Live Gamer, Inc. - - - Develops data platforms that manage virtual economies
for social, gaming, and entertainment markets
Apr-09 iSports, Inc. NTN Buzztime Inc. (AMEX:NTN) 0.2 - - Provides mobile social gaming solutions for iPhone and
iPod Touch devices
Jan-07 eCRUSH.com, Inc. Hearst Magazines International - - - Operates a netw ork of entertainment and community
Websites for teens and young adults, including eSPIN-the-
Bottle, a profile-based social gaming site for teens
Source: Capital IQ
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Jan-10 Drimmi Mangrove Capital Partners; ABRT Venture Fund na Develops and publishes social games
Jan-10 6w aves Inc. InSight Venture Partners 17.5 Develops social gaming applications on the Facebook platform
Dec-09 Zynga, Inc. Tiger Global Management Digital Sky Technologies ; Andreessen Horow itz 180.0 Operates as an online social gaming company
Dec-09 Five Minutes DFJ DragonFund China 3.5 Develops and operates online social games
Dec-09 gWallet, Inc. Adams Street Partners, LLC; Trinity Ventures 10.5 Operates a virtual currency platform for social media developers
Nov-09 Atakama Labs Inc. Austral Capital 4.0 Online social gaming company
Nov-09 Playdom, Inc. New Enterprise Associates; Norw est Venture Partners; Lightspeed Venture Partners 43.0 Operates as a social game developing company
Oct-09 PopCap Games, Inc. MeriTech Capital Partners 22.5 Develops and publishes casual and puzzle games
Sep-09 Booyah, Inc. Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers 5.0 Online social games based on real-life achievements
Jun-09 GameRing Online Ltd. Sequoia Capital Israel 4.1 Operates as a personalized social gaming dashboard for Web
May-09 WonderHill, Inc. Charles River Ventures; Shasta Ventures 7.0 Designs and develops online social games to play w ith friends and family
Mar-09 ngmoco, Inc. Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers; Norw est Venture; Maples Investments 10.0 Develops games and entertainment experiences for the iPhone
Jan-09 Ohai, Inc. August Capital; Rustic Canyon Partners 6.0 Develops multi-player online games and combining w ith the social gaming
Jan-09 Meez, Inc. Anthem Venture Partners na Offers online virtual w orld, avatars and games
Dec-08 Scoreloop AG Target Partners GmbH na Operates as a social gaming platform for the mobile devices
Oct-08 Playfish Limited Accel Partners; Index Ventures 17.0 Develops and publishes video games for social netw orks
Oct-08 Booyah, Inc. Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers 4.5 Online social games based on real-life achievements
Sep-08 Challenge Games Globespan Capital Partners; Sequoia Capital 10.0 Offers multiplayer Web-based fantasy games
Jul-08 ngmoco, Inc. Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers; Maples Investments 5.6 Develops games and entertainment experiences for the iPhone
Jul-08 Zynga, Inc. Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers; Avalon ; Union Square; Foundry GP 29.0 Operates as an online social gaming company
Jul-08 Challenge Games Sequoia Capital 4.5 Offers multiplayer Web-based fantasy games
Jun-08 Mochi Media, Inc. Accel Partners; Shasta Ventures 10.0 Provides tools and services to support game developers
May-08 Social Gaming Netw ork, Inc. Columbia Capital ; Greylock; Novak Biddle; Amidzad; The Founders Fund 15.0 Offers social gaming platform that leverages people’s social connections
Apr-08 Serious Business, Inc. Lightspeed Venture Partners 4.0 Operates as a social gaming platform
Apr-08 cooee GmbH Aurelia Private Equity GmbH na 3D Internet platform for social gaming application
Feb-08 Sparkplay Media, Inc. Prism VentureWorks; Redpoint Ventures 4.3 Develops and publishes brow ser-based casual-ish MMOs and social games
Jan-08 Slide, Inc. T. Row e Price Group ; Fidelity Management & Research 50.0 Offers online application for social netw orking w ebsites
Jan-08 Zynga, Inc. Avalon Ventures; Union Square Ventures; Foundry Group 10.0 Operates as an online social gaming company
Sep-07 Emote Games Ltd. Acuity Capital Management Ltd. 8.0 Oerates as an online & social games publisher
Jun-07 BLUE LION mobile GmbH Bertelsmann Digital Media Investments na Social gaming application for mobile phones
May-07 Mochi Media, Inc. Accel Partners 4.0 Provides tools and services to support game developers
Dec-06 Bigpoint GmbH United Internet AG Investments 8.3 Develops and operates brow ser-based online games
Nov-06 Slide, Inc. Mayfield Fund; BlueRun Ventures; The Founders Fund; Khosla Ventures 8.0 Offers online application for social netw orking w ebsites
Jun-06 Bigpoint GmbH Aurelia Private Equity GmbH; European Founders Fund na Develops and operates brow ser-based online games
Aug-05 Midasplayer.com Ltd. Apax Partners Worldw ide LLP 41.6 Operates King.com , a skill gaming site
Jul-05 Bigpoint GmbH Aurelia Private Equity GmbH na Develops and operates brow ser-based online games
Source : Capital IQ
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the Internet, and is best known for its game, Lil’ Green Patch. Playdom’s key products
include games, such as Overdrive, Sorority Life, and Poker Palace, which can be played
on Facebook, Myspace, and iPhone.
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Analyst Profiles
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