POST AND TELECOMMUNICATION INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
PART 4
METHODOLOGY OF PLANNING MODELS
METHODOLOGY OF PLANNING MODELS
ACTIVITIES OF NATIONAL PLANNING
ACTIVITIES OF NATIONAL PLANNING
Activities of national planning includes two types of
overall planning for socioeconomic development and overall planning for land utili!ation"
omestic omestic
omestic overall planning for socioeconomic development includes three types# those so" i$ %eneral planning for industry/&usiness development and after that is detail region/area planning for industry/&usiness development' ii$ Region overall planning for socioeconomic development and after that is area overall planning for socioeconomic development' iii$ Region general construction planning and after that is area general construction planning omestic overall planning for land utili!ation and after that is region general planning for land utili!ation and after that is area general planning for land utili!ation
ACTIVITIES OF NATIONAL PLANNING
METHODOLOGY OF PLANNING MODELS
GENERAL/DETAIL INDUSTRY/BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT PLANNING
GENERAL/DETAIL INDUSTRY/BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT PLANNING
Industry/&usiness development planning have &een re)uired to
conforma&ility and complying for socioeconomic development planning and land utili!ation planning
There are many types of industry/&usiness development planning*
Among them have four types of relation together as telecommunication and information planning# power planning# road and railway planning# water supply and drainage planning
%eneral planning for telecommunication and information development
after that is regional planning for telecommunication and information development and after that is detailed area planning for telecommunication and information development
GENERAL/DETAIL INDUSTRY/BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT PLANNING
TELECOMMUNICATION AND INFORMATION PLANNING APPROACHES
There
are two approaches for telecommunication and information planning as" %eneral telecommunication and information development planning and %eneral &usiness telecommunication and information networ- planning
%eneral telecommunication and information development planning is
general programming defined target# principle# oriented for development telecommunication mar-et and telecommunication infrastructures# technologies# services and performed solutions
TELECOMMUNICATION AND INFORMATION PLANNING APPROACHES
%eneral &usiness telecommunication and information networ- planning
is evolvement with the proper evolution of the networ-# the services# the technologies# the mar-et and the regulatory environment* These evolutions imply a wider set of options to implement a networ- than in the past and as a conse)uence# the importance of careful planning and analysis for alternatives have larger impact on the networ- capa&ilities today in order to assure the needed capacities# the associated )uality of service and the re)uired investments
TELECOMMUNICATION AND INFORMATION PLANNING APPROACHES
%eneral telecommunication and information development planning are
including"
Regional information infrastructure planning and after that is detailed area
informatics infrastructure planning
Regional telecommunication infrastructure planning and after that is detailed
area telecoms infrastructure planning
Those are organi!ation telecommunication and information infrastructure
according to national overall development programnning# industry of telecommunication and information development programming# ensured national defence and security
TELECOMMUNICATION AND INFORMATION PLANNING APPROACHES
%eneral &usiness telecommunication and information networ- planning
are including"
Regional/detailed area information networ- planning Regional/detailed area telecommunication networ- planning
After
that &oth types of planning have performed strategic networ-/&usiness planning# long term structural planning and sort/medium term planning detailed steps of planning a&ove
After all other# if necessary may &e performed local specific planning to
TELECOMMUNICATION AND INFORMATION PLANNING APPROACHES
METHODOLOGY OF PLANNING MODELS
BUSINESS TELECOMMUNICATION NETWORK PLANNING
BUSINESS TELECOMMUNICATION NETWORK PLANNING
1or general feasi&ility 22 to economically 3ustify the move
towards the evolving architectures 22 one should pay attention to planning of investments and services in a manner which ma-es sure there is no costly over2investment nor &ad utili!ation of already earlier made investments# and at the same time ensures fluent migration of the services for the large amount of e4isting su&scri&ers
REQUIREMENTS TO THE PLANNERS
5nder the previous evolutionary conte4t# the planner is confronted
to a num&er of re)uirements in order to provide answers to the following needs"
6usiness 7riented 8eeds"
9hat are the &est customer segments to address in multimedia : 9hich new services have to &e introduced through time : 9hat is the &est service &undling per customer type : ;ow to increase mar-et share : ;ow to ma4imi!e revenues : ;ow to reduce capital e4penditure : ;ow to reduce operational e4penditure :
REQUIREMENTS TO THE PLANNERS
8etwor- 7riented 8eeds"
;ow to forecast multimedia services and related traffic demands : ;ow many nodes to install# especially for 8%8 : 9hat is &est location for new systems and related communication media : 9hat is the &est networ- architecture and routing in 8%8 : 6est &alance &etween &uilt and lease for infrastructure : ;ow to plan capacity evolution and solutions migration towards 8%8 and
towards 3% :
;ow to converge service applications and platforms through different access
technologies :
;ow to ensure <=A and protection level :
REQUIREMENTS TO THE PLANNERS
7peration <upport 8eeds"
;ow to evaluate alternatives for direct operation and outsourcing : ;ow to organi!e and engineer the new operation processes : 9hich IT applications ensure an efficient support to operation : ;ow to train la&or force on the new operational activities :
TYPICAL NETWORK PLANNING TASKS
The most typical tas-s that the planner has to perform to solve the comple4ity
associated to the previous re)uirements are summari!ed as follows"
Initial situation analysis for economy# customers# services and networ Pro&lem partitioning
ata gathering efinition of alternatives per scenario
>apping solutions per scenario
esign# dimensioning# location and costing
7ptimi!ation <ensitivity analysis to uncertain varia&les Plan selection and consolidation Reporting
BUSINESS TELECOMMUNICATION NETWORK PLANNING
ue to the high speed of changes &oth on the environment and
the technologies# the traditional planning activities that were performed in an separated way# today have to &e strongly interrelated among themselves and to the other networ- related tas-s* 1or that environment# the <trategic networ- planning# 6usiness planning# =ong term structural planning# <hort/medium term planning have to &e applied in iterative way with what2if analysis and also communicate with the related 8etwor- >anagement and 7peration <upport Processes li-e traffic measurement# performance measurement
BUSINESS TELECOMMUNICATION NETWORK PLANNING
ata on topologies# architectures# location# routing# etc from
long term planning are transferred to the medium term and iteratively to short term activities
Planning results are transferred to 8> applications and vice
versa# 8> measurements and status are provided as inputs to the planning activities
7perating <ystem Processes also provide data to the
short/medium term planning activities on the traffic demand# performance and 7rigin/destination flows
BUSINESS TELECOMMUNICATION NETWORK PLANNING
BUSINESS TELECOMMUNICATION NETWORK PLANNING
8etwor- planning addresses all the activities related to the
definition of the networ- evolution in order to allow the transport of an e4pected amount of traffic demands# ta-ing into account a set of re)uirements and constraints* epending on the timescale of the networ- evolution pro&lem under study# three different planning activities can &e performed"
Long-term pl nn!ng ?=TP$# whose o&3ectives are to define and
dimension the networ- parts which are characteri!ed &y a long lifetime and large investments for their deployment
BUSINESS TELECOMMUNICATION NETWORK PLANNING
Me"!#m-term pl nn!ng ?>TP$# whose framewor- should emphasi!e the
&ehavior and the relationships among the sets of entities ?nodes# lin-s# su&2networ-s$ and the list of planning actions and procedures which are involved when planning a networ- to guarantee the convergence towards the esta&lished long term plans* Therefore# >TP should have as an o&3ective the capacity upgrading of the networ- nodes and lin-s' always# following the =T deployment strategies of the optical networ S$ort Term Pl nn!ng ?<TP$# that determines the routes and the
telecommunications systems that support a demand* That is# the networhas to satisfy the current telecommunications demands with the already installed capacities without additional capital investments
INTERACTI%E PLANNING &OR COMPETITION SCENARIOS
ue to the high num&er of scenarios possi&le in the
competition# a special analysis of those scenarios is needed in order to derive which ones are feasi&le &oth from a technical and economical point of view* The following structured procedure is recommended to perform those analyses in an iterative manner"
Telecom networ- scenarios are generated with the premises derived from
realistic mar-et share and competitive situation
1inal o&3ective is to have a )uantified design fulfilling the strategy for
the operator the re)uirements of the society and &eing feasi&le from the &usiness point of view
INTERACTI%E PLANNING &OR COMPETITION SCENARIOS
efined processes and tas-s are needed for all solutions and technologies* Internal data and algorithms vary for each technology case optimi!ation on the inputs and assumptions
1eed&ac- among activities is needed to incorporate results of the
6usiness assessment is made at the start of the process to select feasi&le
solutions and discard the ones not &eing realistic* A more detailed &usiness plan is o&tained at the end of the analysis for the selected solutions and providing the &usiness and investment plans
INTERACTI%E PLANNING &OR COMPETITION SCENARIOS
LONG-TERM PLANNING 'LTP(
The o&3ective of the long2term planning ?=TP$ is to define and
dimension the networ- aspects which are characteri!ed &y a long life time and large investments for their deployment' therefore mainly the topological and technological decisions and fi&er ca&les capacity issues are addressed* =TP# then# ela&orates a target networ- o&3ective for the medium2term planning process' drawing to normally single2period processes
Two
different phases/approaches in =TP are generally considered
LONG-TERM PLANNING 'LTP(
LONG-TERM PLANNING 'LTP(
The )tr teg!* pl nn!ng# which aims at defining the technology and
architecture to &e used in the networ- through the comparison of different options* It is generally &ased on a green2field approach and uses parametric models and typical values for the relevant networ- parameters
&#n" ment l pl nn!ng# which uses as input the technology and networ-
architecture selected &y the strategic planning and defines the structure of the networ-2* The pro&lems to &e faced in the fundamental planning usually are the allocation of functions in the networ- nodes# the topology planning# the apportionment of functions &etween the optical and the client layer# the definition of an optimal networ- structure
ME+IUM-TERM PLANNING 'MTP(
The o&3ective of ?>TP$ is the capacity upgrading of the
networ- nodes and lin-s following the long2term deployment strategies of the optical networ-* Then# the goal of the >TP is to determine the routing map and node capacities
>TP is normally performed in a multi2period &asis' setting of the
different steps for moving from the installed plan ?if any$ to the long2 term networ- o&3ective ?calculated &y the =TP$
6eing more concrete# >TP should generate the following results for each
planning period"
etailed routing and grooming for each demand ?traffic relation$* It should not have conflicts with the defined =TP criteria
ME+IUM-TERM PLANNING 'MTP(
Telecommunications systems to &e installed or uninstalled in all the periods* It should &e done according to the >T forecasts and inside the set of nodes and telecommunications infrastructure supplied &y =TP @)uipment to &e installed# upgraded or uninstalled in all the periods* It should &e done according to the >T forecasts and inside the set of nodes defined &y the =TP <caling and possi&le delays in deploying/installing new networ- elements according to the &udget constraints
1or producing these results# >TP should receive the following inputs"
8etwor- nodes ?from =TP$ Present and potential fi&er routes ?from =TP$ Telecommunications systems in use Installed e)uipment in each node 1orecasted demands for each planning period Aomponent costs* It should ta-e into account# installation# upgrading and uninstallation costs of the
different systems
ME+IUM-TERM PLANNING 'MTP(
The >TP time scale should &e e)ual to the one for =TP and is su÷d
into several shorter periods ?typically around one year each$* In a first step# the =TP process is performed for getting the =TP target networ?1igure 2*,a$
This first step uses the demand forecasts and the installed plant* In a
second step# the >TP process calculates the different steps for reaching the =TP target networ- ?2*,&$
ME+IUM-TERM PLANNING 'MTP(
ME+IUM-TERM PLANNING 'MTP(
This second process uses as inputs the >TP multi2period demand
forecasts# the installed plant and the =TP plan ?generated in the first step$* 6oth steps should &e repeated each time the demand forecasts change dramatically' in any case# it is very normal to repeat them in each planning period ?T0# T1# B$# typically each year* In case of strong variations of the demand forecasts# the =TP target may change in each planning period* In this situation# the >TP plan ?steps$ calculated each year goes towards different targets' something li-e performing steps towards a CmovingD target
5nder conditions of high uncertainty a 87 could adopt a different >TP
approach ?1igure 2*,c$# having its medium2term plans ?>TPs$ partially dis3oint from its long2term plans ?=TPs$
ME+IUM-TERM PLANNING 'MTP(
ME+IUM-TERM PLANNING 'MTP
In this case the results of the =TPs are considered li-e a set of valua&le
constraints# rather than an a&solute target to &e reached* The most important reasons driving this option seem to &e"
is the highest pro&a&ility to have unrelia&le forecasting leading to unrelia&le results
The 7perator considers as useless to plan periods far away in the time since there
The optimi!ed results attaina&le in a static =TP are due to the huge advantage to
&e a&le to use networ- resources in a long period of time selecting the &est fitting with the incremental traffic* 5nfortunately traffic demands are su&3ect to time constraints ?not allowed to delay the provisioning of a circuit in order to optimi!e the networ- filling$ and the networ- resources deployment is su&3ect to &udget constraints* Aonse)uently through the months and the periods the networ- grows un2optimised compared to the =TP perspective and it will &e impossi&le to sticto the =TP programs even if >TP planning algorithm is the &est possi&le one
METHODOLOGY OF PLANNING MODELS
PLANNING METHOD
PLANNING METHOD
@4perience of nationals in ma-es general was planning to
apply scheme processes of other fields as environmental planning# management planning of resources# used2land planning# etc*
There are normally three main su&3ective groups ta-e part to construction
planning with differential roles and lia&ilities those are"
1$ Eurisdictional office' 2$ Planning organi!ation' 3$ Aommunity
,URIS+ICTIONAL O&&ICE
Eurisdictional office gets responsi&ility to ta-e the initiative
planning process after decided higher authorities* Eurisdictional office has got responsi&ility approve constructive plans and ma-e sure the human and financial resources to performed plans
=i-e this 3urisdictional office is a special administrative
organi!ation of national or region or area
PLANNING ORGANI-ATION
Planning organi!ation must &e included specialists to having a
thorough -nowledge of planning wor-s and telecommunication e4perts and other related e4perts as authority of infrastructure programing# authority of constructive programing# authority of architectural programing# etc*
COMMUNITY
Aommunity is special su&3ect represented to citi!ens# which have interest for pro3ects Role of community su&3ect to set up a plan may &e different from referenced advice to
implemented programing
7n e4perience of international countries# division responsi&ilities &etween su&3ects of
planning organi!ation to su&3ect of community may &e represented as Ta&le 2*2
The selection is measure in 3oint of community depend on some factors as the content of
programing and government policy and resources and of course ta-e interest in oneself community
=evel 3oin of community as grow as directly responsi&ility planning organi!ation as
decrease as correlatively
If this matter have &een determined from the &eginning of planning process more
advantageous
PLANNING METHOD
T .le /0/1 Me )#rement n" 2orm 3o!n o2 *omm#n!t4 )#.3e*t to pl nn!ng 1orm and ta-ing part method Fnowledged for show @4changed information As-ed advice >atter define together Herifying for planning <ympathetic =oo-ing Assigned a tas8otice planning Investigation information <eminar <etup e4pert group <etup consultative group Ta-ing part organi!ation planning and gather 7n the increased to measure 3oin 22222222222222222222222222G Role of community su&3ect
>eeting community
PLANNING PROCESS
Planning process have &een divided five steps as"
i$ Programing preparedness'
ii$ Proposed programing' iii$ Planning creation' iv$ Approved planning' v$ Performance and supervision
1igure 2*13 show main results/products for general and detail
planning If this matter have &een determined from the &eginning of planning process more advantageous
PLANNING PROCESS
PLANNING PROCESS
Step 1 Programing preparedness
Programing preparedness focus on determine main matters concerned to planning to
fundamentals for planning as" 5r&an planning# used2land planning# infrastructure planning# architecture planning# construction planning# socioeconomic planning# etc*
7n organi!ation# carry out special programing and &eginning to get in touch with
community su&3ect
In a word# programing preparedness re)uired performance of wor-s as"
etermined to main matters concerned to planning etermined/selected for planning organi!ation
Research on informational demand Aontact to community su&3ect
Research informational demand has &een carried out as follows"
PLANNING PROCESS
PLANNING PROCESS
Step 2 Proposed programing
Proposed programing included some actions' among them most important
was construction e4ecutive plans
In the step 2# the contents and range planning as well as role and
participation of su&3ects must &e defined and concreti!ed
Eurisdictional office need to assert finance and necessary products of
planning
Planning organi!ation must &e completed collection and relative import
information to geographical information system# &asic document unit
6asic document unit included reports and enclosed map need to dispense to
mem&ers of planning organi!ation and to &e fundamental to discussion at meetings
PLANNING PROCESS
This much# actions as follows need to finish in step 2"
@sta&lished e4ecutive plan
efinition the contents of planning and range of each contents
1inished &asic document unit Affirmation and assigned lia&ility of participative su&3ects 7piniona&le recording of su&3ects for defined contents of planning In possi&le condition# &egin supplementary initial information according to
planning
PLANNING PROCESS
Step 3 Planning creation
Planning creation was most important to &ring out planning# often
include three types of actions as follow"
Action 1" Aompletion information ?document# map # data# etc*$* This action needs
to perform main wor-s as" Review and evaluation for new informational demand' Aollection new information' To &e incorporated %I<# types of the map
Action 2" Analysis and development for planning scenario* This action needs to
perform main wor-s as" efinition unit of planning' Recapitulation for valuated of unit of planning' raft of strategically goals' <haring region ?if possi&le$' @valuated impact of many dimension'
Action 3" Aompletion planning* This action needs to performed main wor-s as"
Iteration for scenario planning' <earch for highest sympathi!e possi&ly' >a-e report of planning ?su&mission for approval$
PLANNING PROCESS
Step 4 Appro ed planning
Approved planning was ordinary carried out rules availa&le# as follow"
Eurisdictional office organi!ed a meeting for introduce to planning with relevant
office and planning organi!ation and specialists
Eurisdictional office re)uired relevant organi!ations valuation and comment for
planning
Eurisdictional office has approved planning or if not approved then there was
re)uired ministry of specialty in writing and approved process has repeated as a&ove
PLANNING PROCESS
Step ! Performance and super ision planning
This is last step of planning process Approved planning will &e transferred relevant offices to e4ecution In order to ensure planning has &een deployed on reality and learn from
e4perience for ne4t planning
Eurisdictional office has decided to carry out supervise e4ecution planning There are two forms supervise e4ecution planning those are" 1$ Permanent
supervise' 2$ Periodic supervise
1orm permanent supervise has carried out valuation ensure rate of process
e4ecute planning# called supervise process
PLANNING PROCESS
1orm periodic supervise ?may &e three or five years a time$ has carried out
valuation result of planning and its impact to initial target# called effective supervise
@ach of forms supervise has re)uirement and organi!ation and e4ecutive
method individually* 6ut all of them were important and supplementary each other and ensure planning served life
In &rief# step ( CPerformance and supervision planningD includes actions"
Reali!ed contents of planning has &een approved >a-e plan supervised e4ecutive planning Aarry out supervise process and/or Aarry out supervise for effect <ummari!e and learn from e4perience aimed success planning
METHODOLOGY OF PLANNING MODELS
ACCESS NETWORK PLANNING
ACCESS NETWORK PLANNING METHO+OLOGY
The deployment of access networ-s with a reasona&le cost
re)uires planning and implementation of the design in a well2 organi!ed manner* %enerally there are two &asic approaches to the networ- planning
The classical approach# which is currently used for the planning of
narrow&and networ-s# is &ased on the forecast of demands and the dimensioning of the networ- in order to minimi!e the re)uired networresources ?ca&ling# e)uipment$ re)uired to provide a given amount of resources and is very suita&le for situations where the traffic and num&er of su&scri&ers increases smoothly
This approach is oriented towards the minimi!ation of the investments
ACCESS NETWORK PLANNING METHO+OLOGY
The new transport technologies# li-e
9 > have made the optimi!ation of resources less critical 2 the operators have o&tained a technology# which provides the a&ility to rapid and su&stantial increase of the networ- capacity at the moderate cost level fast and su&stantial traffic increase in short time frame and pro&lems with relia&le forecasting of demands low cost of the &andwidth have limited the applications of the traditional planning 2 it produces a networ- that is optimi!ed for a given demand matri4# &ut it does not guarantee that the networ- is ready for upgrade in case the demands were underestimated or growing
7n the other hand the growing popularity of the Internet has led to the
In this situation# the uncertainty in the demand forecast and the relatively
ACCESS NETWORK PLANNING METHO+OLOGY
The second design approach is to &uild a networ- that can provide a
considera&le e4cess of resources ?transport# switching or routing$ thus providing nearly seamless networ- upgrade at the price of higher initial cost
The presented networ- design approaches can &e com&ined together in
order to find the solution that &etter fits the operatorIs needs and strategy
8etwor- planning should address aspects related to the networ-
evolution* Traditionally the planning activities can &e divided into <hort Term Planning ?<TP$# >edium Term Planning ?>TP$ and =ong Term Planning ?=TP$
ACCESS NETWORK PLANNING METHO+OLOGY
<hort term planning is reali!ed in a response to present needs and
generally should &e applied for solutions characteri!ed &y a short deployment time# for e4ample for the wireless access
>iddle term planning ta-es into account the networ- upgrade in the
conte4t of capacity upgrading of networ- lin-s and nodes
=TPJs o&3ective is to design and dimension the networ- in a long time2
frame
The relation &etween =TP# >TP and <TP is e4tremely important in
networ- evolution 2 all planning methods should act coherently
ACCESS NETWORK PLANNING METHO+OLOGY
The coherency is in practice hard to o&tain and operators of the access
networ-s are often applying a more pragmatic and simpler approach for the networ- design
A planning process of access networ-s is strongly dependent on the
networ- technology# networ- architecture# offered functionality and resource allocation strategies
As more technological solutions are availa&le on the mar-et# the operator
has more options for the design of a suita&le and cost2effective access networ 5nfortunately it ma-es the access networ- design process more
complicated
MATHEMATICAL &OUN+ATIONS O& ACCESS NETWORK PLANNING
It is possi&le to formulate mathematically most of the networ-
optimi!ation pro&lems
The mathematical formulation of the pro&lem has to use appropriate
networ- models# necessary simplifications and general assumptions the o&tained solutions can &e close to the optimum
In practice there is hard to find the optimal solution for the networ-# &ut The applica&ility of a particular solving techni)ue is in close relation
with the si!e of the pro&lem# which depends on the type and num&er of input varia&les and constraints# and on the type of the used cost/energy function# which is minimi!ed during the optimi!ation process
MATHEMATICAL &OUN+ATIONS O& ACCESS NETWORK PLANNING
<ome of input varia&les are to &e su&3ect of change in a long or medium term In order to -eep the networ- optimi!ation process reasona&le comple4 it is
advisa&le to"
<implify the planning pro&lems via reduction of num&er of input parameters and
creation of appropriate networ- models
The acceptance of the su&optimal planning 2 the uncertain growth of the traffic and the
num&er of customers 3ustifies it
Ahoosing appropriate design techni)ues is non trivial and generally cannot &e
done automatically
@very access networ- pro&lem is uni)ue and re)uires operatorJs -nowledge
a&out the overall networ- planning methodology and optimi!ation tools
MATHEMATICAL &OUN+ATIONS O& ACCESS NETWORK PLANNING
<ome of access networ- solutions allow the use of a specific category of planning
algorithms only
There are several models that have &een traditionally used in networ- optimi!ation"
flow formulation for multi2commodity flow model# path2flow formulation and path formulation
To solve the networ- optimi!ation pro&lem the following classes of algorithms can
&e applied"
>athematical programming 2 usually &ased on multi2commodity flow formulation of the capacitated
routing pro&lem
<imulated annealing approach and itIs variant of simulated allocation# which is the simulated annealing
idea applied for capacitated networ- planning pro&lems
<imple heuristic algorithms 2 these algorithms are applied in order to reduce the comple4ity of the multi2
commodity flow pro&lem* ;euristic algorithms are &ased on the e4traction of practical rules from the way an e4pert solves a specific pro&lem* These rules may not have a mathematical proof as they are &ased on good results o&tained in the practice
MATHEMATICAL &OUN+ATIONS O& ACCESS NETWORK PLANNING
Models Op !"!#$ !o% Al&o'! ("s >ulti commodity flow model @numeration @numeration Path2flow mode l 6ranch and &ound Path formulation model Rela4ation techni)ues >arginal improvement techni)ues <imulated annealing <imulated allocation Ta&u search <tochastic geometry <uccessive smooth cost appro4imation @volutionary algorithms ;euristics
A PRAGMATIC APPROACH TO ACCESS NETWORK +ESIGN
The access networ- design process is a process that has to cope with many initial assumptions
and also with many constraints
<ome of them are &ased on the strategic assumptions while others are related to the e4isting
infrastructure and technological solutions# which have &een chosen a priori
The access networ- solutions# even if &elong to the same class differ significantly in technical
details and parameters which should &e set up during the planning process
<o in practice vendors of access networ-s solutions offer planning tools# which are tailored to
their solutions
In many cases relatively simple spreadsheets can &e effectively used for networ- planning* 7f a
great importance is the use of %I< data&ases# &ut such information is typically availa&le in developed countries only
;euristic optimi!ation is very popular in the operators practice# due to their practical &asis
ACCESS NETWORK PLANNING TOOLS
8etwor- planning tools are offered &y the access networ- solution vendors#
planning tools vendors and academic institutions
<ome
of them are HPIlifecycle>anager$
descri&ed
in
Anne4
?<T@>#
8et97RF<#
This issue was also a su&3ect of several @uropean level pro3ects The most important one are" RAA@ 20.,/TITA8 pro3ect# AAT< 22+ 7PTI>5>#
and AAT< 3+4 T@RA
All mentioned pro3ects were focused on techno2economic analyses of networ-s and
were developed in evolutionary manner ?i*e* there is a evolution from TITA8 through 7PTI>5> to T@RA$
RAA@ 20., TITA8 pro3ect developed a methodology and a tool for the techno2
economic evaluation for the introduction of new narrow&and and &road&and services for &oth residential and <>@ customers
ACCESS NETWORK PLANNING TOOLS
The TITA8 pro3ect started in 1//2 and ended in 1//+* The developed
within this pro3ect TITA8 networ- optimi!ation tool is dedicated for techno2economic analysis# and a demand forecast for access networ The tool is &ased on generali!ed access networ- models and utili!es the
geometrical model for the calculation of ca&le lengths and the cost of civil wor-s
It covers ?non e4haustive list$ the following aspects"
The evaluation of access networ- evolution scenarios &ased on e4isting networ-s
and fi&re/radio/copper access technologies
The comparison of scenarios and strategies for introducing the fi&re in the loop
?1IT=$ for residential customers
The calculation of the life2cycle cost and the overall system &udget
ACCESS NETWORK PLANNING TOOLS
The TITA8 tool is &ased on the @4celK spreadsheet It has two operating modes 2 the main mode and the data&ase mode The data&ase mode is used for the estimation of the cost of components and
services# while the main mode is used for the definition of the networarchitecture# services and performing all calculations
The TITA8 data&ase contains several sections"
Aost components# containing all component specific information =earning curve classes# which define a specific learning curve &ehaviour Holume classes# which define a specific mar-et volume evolution 7AL> classes# which define a certain operations# administration and maintenance 9rite2off period class which defines a component lifetimes for calculation of depreciation 5ncertainty class# which defines the relative uncertainty for the ris- assessment
ACCESS NETWORK PLANNING TOOLS
The o&3ective of another @uropean pro3ect# AA22+/7PTI>5> was the calculation of
the overall financial &udget of all -inds of access solutions
In result a networ-2planning tool has &een developed# which ta-es into account" the
system cost# operation and maintenance costs# life2cycle costs and the cash &alance of the pro3ect
In the 7PTI>5> pro3ect the networ- evolution costs are also considered* The tool
com&ines low level# detailed networ- parameters with high level parameters# which is seen as the -ey feature of the 7PTI>5> methodology and the tool
The structure of the 7PTI>5> tool is shown in the 1igure 2*. T@RA was a pro3ect reali!ed within the AAT< Programme ?1//422000$* Aompared to
its predecessor# the T@RA tool aims at the study of architectures spanning the whole telecom networ-# not only the access networ- part ?http"//wwwnrc* no-ia*com/tonic/description/&g*htm$
ACCESS NETWORK PLANNING TOOLS
ACCESS NETWORK PLANNING TOOLS
The framewor- of the T@RA techno2economic evaluations is shown in
the 1igure 2*/*
The geometric planning model is an optional part of the T@RA tool* The
model is used to estimate the amount of ca&le/fi&re and ducting re)uired in the networ 7n the conceptual level the geometric model is a function that ta-es
several inputs such as su&scri&er density# networ- topology ?star# ring# &us$# average ca&le over length# duct availa&ility# etc* and gives two outputs# which are the total amount of ca&le/fi&re re)uired in the networand the total amount of new duct re)uired*
The TITA8 networ- model is a part of the T@RA tool
ACCESS NETWORK PLANNING TOOLS
METHODOLOGY OF PLANNING MODELS
ECONOMICAL MO+ELING O& PLANNING MO+ELS
BUSINESS PLANNING
A 6usiness Plan presents the calculation of the financial
indicators that ena&le the managers to evaluate the financial performances of an enterprise in order to ta-e &est decisions for the overall operation
ue to the high num&er of alternatives today and the need to
find economic feasi&ility in competition# the &usiness evaluations are &eing used not only for the &usiness plan itself &ut as an iterative evaluation of those techno2economical alternatives to select the ones that perform &etter in the competitive mar-et
BUSINESS PLANNING
A &usiness plan summari!es the results of the planning process
The o&3ectives to reach ? su&scri&ers demand# sales$ The future revenues e4pected from the plan and per service class The planned e4penses ?investment and operations$ as overall and per
service class
The accounting statements and the financial indicators characteri!ing
the profita&ility of the pro3ect
The framewor- structure for the evaluation follows the model of
the figure* @ach &o4 is e4panded with more degree of detail as a function of the plan time frame with the corresponding des2 aggregation
BUSINESS PLANNING
B#)!ne)) mo"el )tr#*t#re 2or pl nn!ng
ECONOMIC MO+ELING &OR PLANNING
@conomical modeling to evaluate networ- solutions ?modeling
tariffs# e)uipment costs per type# economy of scale# lifecycle# e)uipment deployment# elasticity# trends with time$
ECONOMIC MO+ELING &OR PLANNING
ue to the high num&er of new services and large variety of mar-eting characteristics# one of the most interesting planning activities when operating 8%8 is the economic modeling of the services costs# revenues and profita&ility# either per single service or for groups of services in the case of a &undle offer economic modelling that represents with less detail the analysis of technological variants and for a given networ- solution models with more detail the demand# dimensioning# tariffs# revenues and profita&ility of the services themselves
The service related modelling is a su&set of the overall 8%8
ECONOMIC MO+ELING &OR PLANNING
In order to consider correctly the per service impacts on the
networ- and &usiness# it should &e differentiated in all economic evaluations those values due to"
The overall operation company The glo&al networ- solution The &road&and platform needed for all new services The specific platform for each service type
ECONOMIC MO+ELING &OR PLANNING
>odelling and differentiation of resources# cost drivers# revenue
drivers with the corresponding cost allocation per service type is a must for the -nowledge of impact from each service and to decide the introduction strategy per service or service &undle
>a3or cost drivers for multimedia service re)uire the evaluation of all
dimensioning units li-e"
8um&er of 5sers 8um&er of 66 ports AAP< ?Aall Attempts Per <econd$ and <essions rate @)uivalent <ustained 6it Rate at the different networ- segments Re)uired storage memory
ECONOMIC MO+ELING &OR PLANNING
Those units# dimensioning and costing has to &e performed for the
following networ- resources"
<pecific service platforms to &e dimensioned per service with the corresponding
cost evaluation are needed for the applications to &e implemented such as" HoIP# Ho # IP Aentre4# 5nified messaging# Aontent delivery# >ultimedia messaging# etc*
Aommon platforms and networ- resources to all services re)uiring the &road&and
platform should &e dimensioned and cost with the corresponding aggregated flows ofall services grouped &y affinity of Mo< or <ervice =evel Agreement
@)uivalent <ustained 6it Rate at the different networ- segments
ECONOMIC MO+ELING &OR PLANNING
7perational e4penses also need to &e modeled with differentiation per
service type and service group# &oth for the technical operation# maintenance# software upgrades as well as for the mar-eting# promotion# training# etc* that will &e important at the first years of the new services
1or all the common costs either due to 66 platforms as well as for common
networ- resources and overall company operation# a sharing factor has to &e evaluated also as a function of partial consumed resources that will aggregate to the specific cost
>a3or revenue drivers for multimedia services need to consider the contract fee#
monthly fee and usage/traffic dependent fee# either in erlangs# >&s# time# delivery unit ?ie" video film$ etc*
ue to confluence of many new multimedia services of heterogeneous types# it is fundamental to -eep trac- of consumed resources per service type in order to &e a&le to perform &ac-ward cost allocation as a function of utili!ation
ECONOMIC MO+ELING &OR PLANNING
This will allow a latter calculation of proper tariffs to o&tain the service
profita&ility either for single services or services &undles and to ensure fulfillment regulation principles when activity &ased costing is used
1or those services provided in a shared mode &y multiple players# li-e
video content# gaming# etc* sharing factors among players have to &e applied for the evaluation of glo&al revenues and partial revenues to &e incorporated to the operator income
ecision ma-ing of which service is introduced first# which grouping or services and for what customer types will &e function of the profita&ility of those alternatives that have a high sensitivity to the services mi4 &y the economy of scale factors* That high impact on the economy of scale is the main driver for convergence of services and the interest of Ctriple playD and Dmultiple playD strategies
CYCLE LI&E AMORTI-ATION %ERSUS MO+ERNI-ATION
The telecom e)uipment and infrastructure have to &e installed at periodical intervals as a
function of the demand evolution
That intervals or provisioning periods for a given technology are a function of the demand
growing rate# the systems capacity and modularity# the life cycle of the installed e)uipment and the corresponding associated costs
The diagram &elow illustrates three provisioning scenarios for a given demand over time"
In scenario A# the provisioning is performed at short regular periods ?say yearly or )uarterly$ minimi!ing the spare capacity &ut increasing the installation costs &y the high num&er of intervention' in addition an une4pected demand grow at higher rate will imply under provisioning and lost of )uality of service as well as of customers In scenario 6# the provisioning is performed for the e4pected demand over a long period or Conce for allD with a high start2up cost in AAP@N and high maintenance for an installed e)uipment with low utili!ation rate In scenario A# the num&er and volume of provisioning is optimi!ed to minimi!e Aost of 7wnership that considers &oth AAP@N and 7P@N while maintaining ade)uate utili!ation rates and Muality of <ervice
CYCLE LI&E AMORTI-ATION %ERSUS MO+ERNI-ATION
The dynamic optimi!ation pro&lem in networ- planning ta-es care
for the optimum provisioning periods and volumes in order to minimi!e costs and is a function of the following parameters"
emand growing rate and forecast relia&ility
@)uipment capacity and modularity Technical life cycle and capa&ility to provide new services @conomical lifecycle @)uipment fi4ed costs and incremental costs 7perational and maintenance costs =a&our costs Interest rate and inflation rate
CYCLE LI&E AMORTI-ATION %ERSUS MO+ERNI-ATION
In the case of availa&ility of new technologies of the same
functionality with larger capacities or when new functionalities appear li-e in the networ- migration towards 8%8# the decisions to &e ta-en &y the planner introduce additional scenarios"
Increase of capacity with same technology modularity ?ie" more <T>21
systems$ versus 3umping to the ne4t technology modularity ?i"e" su&stituting <T>21 &y <T>24 or <T>21+$
<u&stitution of e4isting technology functionality &y the ne4t generation
functionality with larger capacities and new functions li-e in the 8%8 case*
CYCLE LI&E AMORTI-ATION %ERSUS MO+ERNI-ATION
Str teg!e) o2 net5or6 re)o#r*e) "eplo4ment **or"!ng to l!2e *4*le n" e*onom!*)
CYCLE LI&E AMORTI-ATION %ERSUS MO+ERNI-ATION
In these types of scenarios# in addition to the previous parameters# the
possi&ility to provide same services with additional su& networ-s and the possi&ility to provide new services not feasi&le with installed technologies# introduce additional comple4ity in the techno2 economical evaluation &y the need to incorporate in the evaluation the differential revenues &y those new services
Fey parameters that most influence on the decision are the degree of
e)uipment o&solescence or remaining time of the life cycle period# the new customers grow rate and the e4pected cash flows &y the new services
The evaluation process has to consider and compare the 8et Present
Halue ?8PH$ of potential alternatives with all costs and revenues per alternative with the discounted cash flows
CYCLE LI&E AMORTI-ATION %ERSUS MO+ERNI-ATION
The proper selection of those alternatives that" first fulfil the
profita&ility re)uirements and second provides &etter 8PH and Internal Rate of Return "IRR# will give the decision to the planner on the e)uili&rium &etween the amorti!ation versus moderni!ation or su&stitution &y the new generation technology
The large variety of scenarios in actual networ-s do not allow a
generic recommendation# although it is common that in new %reenfield areas and with o&solete e)uipment that has to &e renovated anyhow it may &e recommended the installation of new generation systems once all technical capa&ilities are availa&le and proved
CYCLE LI&E AMORTI-ATION %ERSUS MO+ERNI-ATION
Also it is fre)uent that for modern e)uipment with re)uired
functionalities and many years remaining to fulfil the life cycle# su&stitution is delayed until economically feasi&le
This com&ination of decisions is called cap and gro$ and is the
more fre)uent today# &ut for every country# region and services demand scenario# the 8PH and IRR have to &e evaluated in order to ensure not only positive &usiness results &ut also results in line with &enchmar-ing values in order to survive in a competitive environment
Q&A
Ce% e' o) Co%s*l $%+, $%d Te+(%olo&, T'$%s)e'
Research Institute of Posts And Telecommunication
Telep$one1 78 8 9 :;< =79/> 78 8 9 :;8 887< & ? 1 78 8 9 :;< =799 Em !l t$ n$nt/@pt!t0e"#0AnB t$ n$r!pt@gm !l0*om
