Chapter

4
Long-Term Financial
Planning and Growth
4-1
Key Concepts and Skills
Understand the financial planning process
and how decisions are interrelated
Be able to develop a financial plan using
the percentage of sales approach
Understand the four major decision areas
involved in long-term financial planning
Understand how capital structure policy
and dividend policy affect a firms ability to
grow
4-2
Chapter Outline
What is Financial Planning?
Financial Planning Models: A First Look
The Percentage of Sales Approach
External Financing and Growth
Some Caveats Regarding Financial
Planning Models
4-3
Elements of Financial Planning
Investment in new assets determined by
capital budgeting decisions
Degree of financial leverage determined
by capital structure decisions
Cash paid to shareholders determined by
dividend policy decisions
Liquidity requirements determined by net
working capital decisions
4-4
Financial Planning Process
Planning Horizon - divide decisions into short-run
decisions (usually next 12 months) and long-run
decisions (usually 2 5 years)
Aggregation - combine capital budgeting
decisions into one big project
Assumptions and Scenarios
Make realistic assumptions about important variables
Run several scenarios where you vary the
assumptions by reasonable amounts
Determine at least a worst case, normal case and best
case scenario
4-5
Role of Financial Planning
Examine interactions help management see
the interactions between decisions
Explore options give management a systematic
framework for exploring its opportunities
Avoid surprises help management identify
possible outcomes and plan accordingly
Ensure feasibility and internal consistency help
management determine if goals can be
accomplished and if the various stated (and
unstated) goals of the firm are consistent with
one another
4-6
Financial Planning Model
Ingredients
Sales Forecast many cash flows depend directly on the
level of sales (often estimated sales growth rate)
Pro Forma Statements setting up the plan as projected
financial statements allows for consistency and ease of
interpretation
Asset Requirements the additional assets that will be
required to meet sales projections
Financial Requirements the amount of financing
needed to pay for the required assets
Plug Variable determined by management decisions
about what type of financing will be used (makes the
balance sheet balance)
Economic Assumptions explicit assumptions about the
coming economic environment
4-7
Example: Historical Financial
Statements
Gourmet Coffee Inc.
Balance Sheet
December 31, 2004
Assets 1000 Debt 400
Equity 600
Total 1000 Total 1000
Gourmet Coffee Inc.
Income Statement
For Year Ended
December 31, 2004
Revenues 2000
Costs 1600
Net Income 400
4-8
Example: Pro Forma Income
Statement
Initial Assumptions
Revenues will grow at
15% (2000*1.15)
All items are tied
directly to sales and
the current
relationships are
optimal
Consequently, all other
items will also grow at
15%
Gourmet Coffee Inc.
Pro Forma Income
Statement
For Year Ended 2005
Revenues 2,300
Costs 1,840
Net Income 460
4-9
Example: Pro Forma Balance
Sheet
Case I
Dividends are the plug
variable, so equity
increases at 15%
Dividends = 460 NI 90
increase in equity = 370
Case II
Debt is the plug variable
and no dividends are paid
Debt = 1,150 (600+460) =
90
Repay 400 90 = 310 in
debt

Gourmet Coffee Inc.
Pro Forma Balance Sheet
Case 1
Assets 1,150 Debt 460
Equity 690
Total 1,150 Total 1,150
Gourmet Coffee Inc.
Pro Forma Balance Sheet
Case 1
Assets 1,150 Debt 90
Equity 1,060
Total 1,150 Total 1,150
4-10
Percent of Sales Approach
Some items vary directly with sales, while others do not
Income Statement
Costs may vary directly with sales - if this is the case, then the
profit margin is constant
Depreciation and interest expense may not vary directly with
sales if this is the case, then the profit margin is not constant
Dividends are a management decision and generally do not vary
directly with sales this affects additions to retained earnings
Balance Sheet
Initially assume all assets, including fixed, vary directly with sales
Accounts payable will also normally vary directly with sales
Notes payable, long-term debt and equity generally do not
because they depend on management decisions about capital
structure
The change in the retained earnings portion of equity will come
from the dividend decision
4-11
Example: Income Statement
Tashas Toy Emporium
Income Statement, 2004
% of
Sales
Sales 5,000
Costs 3,000 60%
EBT 2,000 40%
Taxes
(40%)
800 16%
Net Income 1,200 24%
Dividends 600
Add. To RE 600
Tashas Toy Emporium
Pro Forma Income Statement,
2005
Sales 5,500
Costs 3,300
EBT 2,200
Taxes 880
Net Income 1,320
Dividends 660
Add. To RE 660
Assume Sales grow at 10%
Dividend Payout Rate = 50%
4-12
Example: Balance Sheet
Tashas Toy Emporium Balance Sheet
Current % of
Sales
Pro
Forma
Current % of
Sales
Pro
Forma
ASSETS Liabilities & Owners Equity
Current Assets Current Liabilities
Cash $500 10% $550 A/P $900 18% $990
A/R 2,000 40 2,200 N/P 2,500 n/a 2,500
Inventory 3,000 60 3,300 Total 3,400 n/a 3,490
Total 5,500 110 6,050 LT Debt 2,000 n/a 2,000
Fixed Assets Owners Equity
Net PP&E 4,000 80 4,400 CS & APIC 2,000 n/a 2,000
Total Assets 9,500 190 10,450 RE 2,100 n/a 2,760
Total 4,100 n/a 4,760
Total L & OE 9,500 10,250
4-13
Example: External Financing
Needed
The firm needs to come up with an
additional $200 in debt or equity to make
the balance sheet balance
TA TL&OE = 10,450 10,250 = 200
Choose plug variable
Borrow more short-term (Notes Payable)
Borrow more long-term (LT Debt)
Sell more common stock (CS & APIC)
Decrease dividend payout, which increases
the Additions To Retained Earnings
4-14
Example: Operating at Less than
Full Capacity
Suppose that the company is currently operating at 80%
capacity.
Full Capacity sales = 5000 / .8 = 6,250
Estimated sales = $5,500, so would still only be operating at 88%
Therefore, no additional fixed assets would be required.
Pro forma Total Assets = 6,050 + 4,000 = 10,050
Total Liabilities and Owners Equity = 10,250
Choose plug variable
Repay some short-term debt (decrease Notes Payable)
Repay some long-term debt (decrease LT Debt)
Buy back stock (decrease CS & APIC)
Pay more in dividends (reduce Additions To Retained Earnings)
Increase cash account
4-15
Work the Web Example
Looking for estimates of company growth
rates?
What do the analysts have to say?
Check out Yahoo Finance click the web
surfer, enter a company ticker and follow
the Analyst Estimates link
4-16
Growth and External Financing
At low growth levels, internal financing
(retained earnings) may exceed the
required investment in assets
As the growth rate increases, the internal
financing will not be enough and the firm
will have to go to the capital markets for
money
Examining the relationship between growth
and external financing required is a useful
tool in long-range planning
4-17
The Internal Growth Rate
The internal growth rate tells us how much
the firm can grow assets using retained
earnings as the only source of financing.
Using the information from Tashas Toy
Emporium
ROA = 1200 / 9500 = .1263
B = .5

% 74 . 6
0674 .
5 . 1263 . 1
5 . 1263 .
b ROA - 1
b ROA
Rate Growth Internal

4-18
The Sustainable Growth Rate
The sustainable growth rate tells us how
much the firm can grow by using internally
generated funds and issuing debt to
maintain a constant debt ratio.
Using Tashas Toy Emporium
ROE = 1200 / 4100 = .2927
b = .5
% 14 . 17
1714 .
5 . 2927 . 1
5 . 2927 .
b ROE - 1
b ROE
Rate Growth e Sustainabl

4-19
Determinants of Growth
Profit margin operating efficiency
Total asset turnover asset use efficiency
Financial leverage choice of optimal debt
ratio
Dividend policy choice of how much to
pay to shareholders versus reinvesting in
the firm
4-20
Important Questions
It is important to remember that we are
working with accounting numbers and ask
ourselves some important questions as we
go through the planning process
How does our plan affect the timing and risk of
our cash flows?
Does the plan point out inconsistencies in our
goals?
If we follow this plan, will we maximize owners
wealth?
4-21
Quick Quiz
What is the purpose of long-range planning?
What are the major decision areas involved in
developing a plan?
What is the percentage of sales approach?
How do you adjust the model when operating
at less than full capacity?
What is the internal growth rate?
What is the sustainable growth rate?
What are the major determinants of growth?