No Alarming Sea Level Rise Nature
against IPCC Observations vs
Models
Nils-Axel Mörner
Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, Stockholm, Sweden
morner@pog.nu
President INQUA Com. on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution (1999-2003)
Leader of the Maldives Sea Level Project (2000-2009+) Co-
ordinator INTAS project on Geomagnetism and Climate (1997-2003)
most Changes have Pros and Cons
Global Warming in particular
but there is nothing good to come from
A Rapid Sea Level Rise
Therefore this is
the Only Real Threat
though, in fact,
Utterly Wrong !
quod erat demonstrandum
This is what it is all about
Observational facts or Model output
?
the motivation behind sea level claims differs significantly
We have done very detailed sea level studis in
The Maldives
(doomed to be flooded in 50-100 years)
– sea has been higher before –
sea fell ~20 cm in the 1970s –
sea has remained stable for the last 30 years
Sea level changes in the Maldives from 1500 to 2009 and 2100
No reasons for any alarm. Sea
level has been stable for the last 30 years. Maximum future
change may be a return to a pre-1970 level
President Cabinet under water
in water
Past-Present-Future sea level changes
no threat at all !
I recently investigated the situation in Bangladesh
(Energy & Environment, 21:3, 49-63, 2010)
Bangladesh
(doomed to experience terrible disasters)
– sea is not rising, but stable
– it even fell a little some 40-50 years ago –
similar trends are recorded in India – and
the Maldives
Coastal Erosion !
Sea is Rising !
The IPCCers say
Coastal Erosion – yes
But – No Rise in Sea Level
As clearly indicated by the root system
spreading horizontally at
just the same level as in the forest behind
Sea Level Changes in Bangladesh
There is no global sea level rise in Bangladesh
A presently ongoing rapid sea level rise has been claimed for
Tuvalu and Vanuatu
the truth is quite different:
– sea has remained stable in Tuvalu –
sea has also remained stable in Vanuatu
Tuvalu – tide gauge record
8 years of slow rise (instalaton subsidence?) is followed by
22 years of stability – i.e. no sea level rise
the 3 low levels represent ENSO-events
North-west Europe is
another excellent ”test area”
– there is a eustatic curve for 1690-1970 –
sea has not risen in the last 40-50 years
No Rapid Sea Level Rise can
be traced
Eustatic curve 1680-1970 (for NW Europe)
(from Mörner, 1973)
From 1840 t0 1940 sea level rose by 11 cm – blue line
the Earth’s rate of rotation (LOD) ≈ 10 cm – green
COXAHVEN 160 YEARS TIDE-GAUGE RECORD
A mean-sinosidal relative sea level rise is composed of a
long-term subsidence (red) of ~1.4 mm/year and a
sinosoidal eustatic rise up to 1960 followed by a slight lowering
Satellite Altimetry
A wonderful new tool to measure the
ocean level but
from where does the tilt come?
– in 2000: variability around a stable zero –
in 2003: a tilt of 2.3 mm/yrs
Satelite Altimetry
by 2000 – a stable trend
by 2003 – a rising trend
due to ”personal calibration”
50 years sea level record from French Guiana-Surinam
It exhibits a clear dominance of the 18.6 years tidal cycle
around a stable zero-level
Satellite altimitry gives a rise of ~3 mm/yr in this area
there is a message in the difference
The rate of glacial eustatic rise
after LGM was ~10 mm/yr and
sets the ultimate limit of
possible sea level changes in the
present century (yellow).
Thermal Expansion
CONCLUSIONS
No sea level rise recorded:
– in the Maldives
– in Tuvalu
– in Vanuatu
– in Bangladesh
– in Qatar
– in Venice
– in NW Europe
Thermal
expansion – is
small <10 cm – zero at shore
Satellite Altimetry
A: sea level changes based on observational facts B:
selected tide-gauge records (IPCC) C:
Topex/Poseidon record after personal calibration
D: Topex/Poseidon without personal calibration
If sea level would be rapidly rising – following the law of angular
momentum – the Earth should experience a deceleration. This is
NOT the case – Why is this?
because Sea is Not Rising – of course
CONCLUSIONS
the observational records (curve
A) is correct the IPCC models (curves B-C)
are wrong
without a flooding concept
there is not much of a threat left in IPCC
the tiger has lost its teeth
maybe it was not even a real tiger
just a blown-up balloon-dummy
Don’t worry, my son, the present is a reflection of the past
nothing more, nothing less – just the same old story
190 peer-reviewed papers on Sea Level & Climate – out of 534 papers totally
Mörner, N.-A., 2007
The Greatest Lie Ever Told.
1st ed. 2007, 2nd ed. 2009, 3rd ed. 2010, 20 pp.
for sale
during the meeting
References (just a few selected)
Mörner, N.-A., 2004. Changing sea levels. In: Encyclopedia of Coastal Sciences
(M. Schwartz, Ed.), p. 229-232.
Mörner, N.-A., 2004. Estimating future sea level changes. Global Planetary
Change, 40, 49-54.
Mörner, N.-A., 2007. Sea level changes and tsunamis, environmental stress and
migration overseas. The case of the Maldives and Sri Lanka. Internationales
Asienforum, 38, 353-374.
Mörner, N.-A. 2010. Some problems in the reconstruction of mean sea level and
its changes with time. Quaternary International, on line January 25, 2010.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2009.10.044
Mörner, N.-A., 2010. Sea level changes in Bangladesh. New observational facts.
Energy & Environment, 21:3, 49-63.
Mörner, N.-A., 2010. Solar Minima, Earth’s Rotation and Little Ice Ages in the
Past and in the Future. The North Atlantic – European case. Global Planetary
Change, in press. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.01.004
