SUNSPOT

PREDICTION AND ITS IMPORTANCE

S
 OBJECTIVES

• Sun - Its structure and

Atmosphere
• What are SUNSPOTS?
• Solar Cycle
• Sunspot prediction methods
• Importance of Sunspot
Prediction
Picture of the Sun with
• Effect of Sunspot Cycle on
visible sunspots from Space Weather
Earth on cloudy day
 STRUCTURE OF
SUN
• The solar interior is separated into four
regions according to the different
processes that occur there- Core,
Convection Zone, Radiation Zone

• The solar atmosphere is the outer layer

of the Sun that extends into space. It's
made up of several layers, including
the photosphere, chromosphere,
transition region, and corona. Diagrammatic representation
of the structure of Sun
SUN’S CORE RADIATION REGION CONVECTION
REGION

• It is the region where It is outermost layer of

the nuclear reactions It is characterized by the solar interior. At the
to convert hydrogen the method of energy base of the convection
into Helium takes transport - radiation. zone the temperature is
place. The energy generated about 2, 000, 000 C which
• Energy generated in
in the core is carried is appropriate for the
the core diffuses
by light (photons) that heavier ions (such as
outward by radiation
bounces from particle carbon) to hold onto some
through the radiative
zone and by to particle through the of their electrons. This
convective fluid that radiative zone. makes the material more
flows through the opaque and harder for
convection zone. radiation to get through

The Interface Layer appears at the junction of the Radiative and Convective
zone. It is believed that the Sun’s magnetic field is generated at this
layer.
PHOTOSPHER CHROMOSPHER CORONA
E E
It is the layer outside The chromosphere
It is the innermost the photosphere gradually merges into
and visible surface of which gradually it. It is not so bright
the sun. It is the merges into the and hence not
innermost and visible corona. The visible except during
surface of the sun. temperature total eclipse. The inner
Limb Darkening is increases from 4500K part of corona is called
observed here. to 6000K. It is not K-corona and the outer
visible normally part is called F-corona.
except
during eclipses.
 WHAT ARE SUNSPOTS?

• Sunspots look like a ragged hole. It

has umbra in its interior and
penumbra as its exterior. It remains
slightly depressed with respect to the
surface.
• Typically has a diameter of 10, 000km
with lifetime varying from few days to
months.
• The motion of spots help track
Visible sunspot on the rotation of Sun. They are the main
surface of Sun source of solar flares and coronal
mass ejections which has significant
effect on the solar system
SUNSPOT CYCLE

The Solar Cycle, also

called sunspot cycle refers
to
the 11 year change in the
Sun’s activity in terms of
the number of measured
sunspots on the surface. A graph showing the sunspot
cycle over the years since
1700
 SOLAR MAXIMUM

A graphical representation of 7 sunspot cycle that shows the

progression of cycles are almost equal in all cycles
• The peaks in the graph above signify “Solar Maximum” .

• Hence in a solar cycle, the sun goes from solar minimum to a

solar maximum back to solar minimum, this marks an entire
cycle.

• Over the period of a solar cycle, levels of solar radiation and

ejection of solar material, the number and size of sunspots,
solar flares, and coronal loops all exhibit a synchronized
fluctuation.

• The ongoing solar cycle is the Solar Cycle 25. It started in

December 19 and is approaching the solar maximum expected
in July 2025 and the cycle will continue till around 2030.
 PREDICTION
METHODS

Various machine learning algorithms

are used to predict the sunspot cycles
and its progression over the next few
cycles. This can be done using the
previous data available to us . This
data is used to train the models using
the programming languages and then
get the desired result. Neural networks
are one such tool and are effective for
the process.
 IMPORTANCE OF
PREDICTION
• Predicting sunspot cycles, its occurrence and
characteristics are important to analyse it's effect on
the overall atmosphere of space.
• Tracking the sunspot gives the idea about sun’s
magnetic field which plays an important role in the
Interplanetary Magnetic Flare.
• The Aurora formation observed from earth is also its
result.
• Also Sun’s cycle plays an important role in Space
weather.
 EFFECT ON SPACE WEATHER

• Space weather, with one important exception,

begins at the Sun. During solar maxima, solar
magnetic field is destroyed in solar flares, since
a lot of its energy is released in form of solar
ultraviolet(UV) light, x-rays, energetic
particles(MeV protons), coronal mass
ejections(CMEs), and a “stormy” solar wind.
Solar flares which lead to • The larger flares producing solar radio bursts
solar storms may directly affect the GPS receivers on the
dayside of the earth. Geomagnetic storms are
disturbances in Earth’s magnetosphere that can
have significant impact on both ground- and
space- based technologies.
THANK
YOU
COSMO-CHAMPS
Anushree Sarkar
Simon Snehashis Rozario
Tiasha SIngha