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GPG Election Update

This document provides an overview of the state of the 2020 US election as of June 2020. It summarizes that Joe Biden currently leads Donald Trump in national polls and most swing state polls. However, there are sharp political divides, especially around issues of reopening during COVID-19 and mail-in voting expansion. Coronavirus and racial injustice protests are top issues on voters' minds. Support for Black Lives Matter has increased significantly in recent months.

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June 2020 The State of the Election: American Attitudes in a Time of Crisis
A Tumultuous Month
Dual crises set against the backdrop of a recession. 3 Sources: NBC News, 6/21/2020 (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-coronavirus-death-toll-surpasses-120-000-china-south-n1231663); Politico, n =1,981, 5/29-6/1/2020 (https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000172-76e4-d9bc-a1f7-7eefb03b0000); The Economist/YouGov, n = 1,500, 6/7-9/2020 (https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/ngcg634q9k/econTabReport.pdf); The Economist/YouGov, n = 1,500, 3/8-10/2020 (https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/1ghnpqhhpu/econToplines.pdf ); The Hill, 6/11/2020 (https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/502220-harvard- health-expert-anticipates-100000-more-us); CNN, 6/17/2020 (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html); NYT, 6/18/2020 (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html) Covid-19 deaths top 120k Many are still out of workPolice brutality and protests - Nearly half of all states are showing upward trends in new cases. - Heading into summer, some governors are committed to reopening, while others warn they may need to renew restrictions. - Experts predict deaths will hit 200k by October. - Nearly 1 in 6 are unemployed even with states beginning to reopen. - 64% of Americans predict it will take at least a year for the U.S. economy to fully recover. - The Congressional Budget Office projects the economy won’t fully recover until 2030. - Protests have continued for over three weeks across the nation, renewing calls for racial justice and policing reform. - Both Democrats and Republicans have criticized the President’s actions. The number of Americans who believe the country is off on the wrong track is up 13 points from 51% in March (now 64%).
While approval of Pres. Trump held steady during the Coronavirus pandemic, police brutality and Black Lives Matter protests drove a sharp downturn. 29-Jan-1729-M ar-1729-M ay-1729-Jul-1729-Sep-1729-N ov-1729-Jan-1829-M ar-1829-M ay-1829-Jul-1829-Sep-1829-N ov-1829-Jan-1929-M ar-1929-M ay-1929-Jul-1929-Sep-1929-N ov-1929-Jan-2029-M ar-2029-M ay-20 January 2017 June 2020 47% disapprove 45% approve 57% disapprove 39% approve Source: Gallup, 1/29/2017-6/3/2020, n=1500 Adults Daily (https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx) Peak disapproval: 60% after Kavanaugh/during the 2018 midterms Peak approval: 49% throughout much of the coronavirus 4-Jun-20 Approval by party Democrats 5% Independents 39% Republicans 85% Pres. Trump’s approval has dropped at previous points throughout his term, and each time he has recovered and narrowed the gap. It remains to be seen if he will do the same this time. 4
The Black Lives Matter movement has gained significant support and momentum. Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 June 2017 41% oppose 38% support Source: Washington Post, n= 1,006 adults, 6/2-7/20 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/june-2-7-2020-washington-post-schar-poll/6b811cdf-8f99-4e28-b8f1-c76df335c16a/?itid=lk_inline_manual_9) ; Monmouth, n=807 adults, 5/28-6/1/20 (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_060220.pdf/); Reuters, n=1,113 adults, 6/9-10/20 (https://graphics.reuters.com/USA- ELECTION/qmypmorxgpr/Topline%20Reuters%20George%20Floyd%20Protests%20%20Police%20Reform%2006%2010%202020.pdf ); Civiqs,, n=100k adults over 3 years (https://civiqs.com/results/black_lives_matter?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true) June 2020 29% oppose 52% support The BLM movement has seen significant growth in support in a very short period. 3 in 4 Americans support protests, as the country begins to shift views on racial discrimination and police violence. Support / opposition: Black Lives Matter movement76%now consider racism and discrimination a big problem. 69% now say that police killings are are a sign of broader problems. +26 pts. from 2015 +26 pts. from 2014 A majority of Americans – both Republican and Democrat – now support sweeping law enforcement reforms. 5
In the midst of unrest, Coronavirus continues to be a priority on Americans’ minds. 6 Sources: Axios/Ipsos, n = 1,022, 6/12-15/2020 (https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-06/topline-axios-poll-w13.pdf); Gallup, n=1,000 adults, 6/1-7/2020 (https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-important-problem.aspx) However, belief that “the worst is yet to come” from the virus is down from April. 47% 46% Worst is behind us Worst is yet to come Down from 80% in April 19% 19% 20% 21% Race relations / racism Economic problems Coronavirus The government / leadership Coronavirus is tied with leadership, the economy, and race relations as the most important problem facing the country.
There is a sharp political divide between Republicans and Democrats on reopening. 7 Sources: Washington Post, 5/26/2020 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-calls-mask-wearing-politically-correct-biden-calls-him-a-fool/2020/05/26/a58025e6-9f9c-11ea-81bb- c2f70f01034b_story.html); The Economist/YouGov, n = 1,500, 6/14-16/2020 (https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/vgqowgynze/econTabReport.pdf); FactCheck, 6/16/2020 (https://www.factcheck.org/2020/06/ahead-of- trump-rally-republicans-spin-covid-19-metrics/); Kaiser, n = 1,189, 5/13-18/2020 (http://files.kff.org/attachment/Topline-KFF-Health-Tracking-Poll-May-2020.pdf) 4% 6% 8% 31% 33% 34% 6% 11% 26% 8% It is safe right now In about two weeks In a month or so In several months In about a year or longer Democrats Republicans When will it be safe to reopen business as normal? As masks have become a political symbol, the White House has suggested that the recent uptick in COVID-19 cases in some states is driven by increases in testing. (Testing accounts for some of the rise but doesn’t explain all of it.) Democrats are almost twice as likely as Republicans (70% to 37%) to say they wear a mask every time they leave their house.
But both Democrats and Republicans show support for governors’ handling of the crisis. 8 Three of the highest rated governors are moderate Republicans who have clashed with President Trump: Gov. Larry Hogan (MD), Gov. Phil Scott (VT), Gov. Charlie Baker (MA). Democratic governor average = 69% Republican governor average = 67% The lowest rated governor: Gov. Brian Kemp (GA) at 43% 75% 76% 78% 80% 80% 82% 82% 82% 82% 85% Montana Gov. Steve Bullock (D) Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont (D) North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R) Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) Vermont Gov. Phil Scott (R) Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker (R) New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) Approval of Governor’s handling of Coronavirus by residents (top 10) Sources: The Washington Post, n = 123,335, 4/30-5/13/2020 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/19/49-50-governors-have-better-coronavirus-numbers-than-trump/)
Americans are nervous about heading to the polls in November. Two-thirds support mail-in voting. 9 52% of voters are are more likely to cast their vote by mail rather than in person this November if given the opportunity. Sources: Marist, n = 1,007, 5/12-17/2020 (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/UPDATED_NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202005191427.pdf#page=3); Gallup, 4/14-28/2020 (https://news.gallup.com/poll/310586/americans-favor-voting-mail-option-november.aspx) 64% 40% 68% 83% Total Republican Independent Democrat Support for mail-in voting is high, but split along party lines.
Both parties are gearing up for a mail-in voting fight and are pursuing legal challenges. 10 Sources: National Vote at Home Institute, 3/2020 (https://www.voteathome.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/VAHScale_StrategyPlan.pdf); The Brennen Center, 4/18/2020 (https://www.brennancenter.org/our- work/research-reports/estimated-costs-covid-19-election-resiliency-measures); FiveThirtyEight, 4/27/2020 (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/few-states-are-prepared-to-switch-to-voting-by-mail-that-could-make-for- a-messy-election/); The Washington Post, 5/20/2020 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/20/what-are-arguments-against-voting-by-mail/); The New York Times, 4/11/2020 (https://www.nytimes.com/article/mail-in-voting-explained.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage) Real Barriers: • There are logistical and planning challenges. States will need to work through several questions – including pre-paid return ballots, application processes for mail-in voting, and storage and tracking of ballots – as part of expanding options for voters. • States also face financial challenges to expanding mail-in voting. One think tank estimates that voting by mail will cost $1-2 billion to implement. Myths: • Myth: The process benefits one political party over the other. Reports examining mail-in elections from 1996 to 2018 have shown that both turnout and vote share remained even across parties over the course of those elections. • Myth: Voting by mail will increase voter fraud. The five states that currently conduct all voting by mail – Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah, and Washington – report very little voter fraud, and all voting fraud across the U.S. is very low. Courts have previously ruled that while voting is a right, voting early or by mail is only a privilege.
The Presidential Race
Biden holds leads nationally and in most key swing states. Source: RealClearPolitics, 5/28-6/16/2020 (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html); Fox News, 5/30-6/2/2020, 801 WI voters (https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/06/Fox_May-30-June-2-2020_Complete_Wisconsin_Topline_June-3-Release.pdf); CNBC, 5/29-31/2020, n = 1,186 likely FL voters, 579 likely PA voters (https://www.changeresearch.com/post/states-of-play-battleground-wave-6); EPIC-MRA, 5/30-6/3/2020, n = 600 likely MI voters (https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/06/07/michigan-poll-biden-leading-trump-12- points/3153501001/); PPP, 6/2-3/2020, n = 949 (https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/NCResultsJune2020.pdf); Fox News, 5/30-6/2/2020, n = 1000 AZ voters (https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/06/35199d36-Fox_May-30-June-2-2020_Complete_Arizona_Topline_June-3-Release.pdf); Fox News, 5/30-6/2/2020, n = 803 OH voters (https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/06/Fox_May-30-June-2-2020_Complete_Ohio_Topline_June-3-Release.pdf); Star Tribune, 5/18-20/2020, n = 800 MN voters (https://www.startribune.com/star-tribune-mpr-news- kare-11-minnesota-poll-presidential-race/570571341/) VP Joe Biden 50% 12 Popular Vote Battleground Advantages President Trump 42% Florida Biden +3 Arizona Biden +4 Michigan Biden +12 Wisconsin Biden +9 Pennsylvania Trump +4 Ohio Biden +2* North Carolina Biden +4 *denotes polling within the margin of error Minnesota Biden +5 Based on aggregated polling from May 28 – June 16 Biden currently leads in 7 of 8 key swing states Pres. Trump won in 2016.
53% 56% 53% 45%45% 44% 45% 47% 2008 2012 2016 2020 Clinton Trump Obama Obama Romney McCain President Trump is losing support among traditional Republican strongholds. 13 Source: Fox News, n = 1,207 registered voters, 5/17-2020 (https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/05/7ab2e761-Fox_May-17-20-2020_Complete_National_Topline_May-21-Release.pdf); The Economist/YouGov, n = 1,500 adult Americans, 5/23-26/2020 (https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5fsvmrvvhh/econTabReport.pdf); New York Times exit polls (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html); CNN exit polls, 2008, 20102, 2016 (https://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1; https://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/; https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls); Marist, n = 1,062, 6/2-3/2020 (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp- content/uploads/2020/06/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_2006041039.pdf ) Democrats will look to expand their voting base going into November – shifts among these demographics will be key. Suburban voters: 48% 50% 50% 36% 50% 48% 45% 52% 2008 2012 2016 2020 Clinton Trump Obama Obama Romney McCain D +2 R +2 R +5 Voters over 65: R +8 R +12 R +8 Biden Trump D +16 D +2 Biden Trump current polling current polling White women: 53% 56% 52% 44% 46% 42% 43% 51% 2008 2012 2016 2020 Clinton Trump Obama Obama Romney McCain R +14 R +9 D +7R +7 Biden Trump current polling
186 28 34 86 78 126 Despite Biden’s recent surge in national polling, the electoral map still shows a tight race to come. 14 K Y Electoral vote counter: Democrat: 248 Republican: 204 Safe Democrat Likely Democrat Toss up Likely Republican Safe Republican Source: Cook Political Report, 6/19/2020 (https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/new-2020-electoral-college-ratings) Need 270 to win Changes since March 2020: • Michigan moved from toss up to leans Democrat • Ohio and Iowa moved from likely Republican to leans Republican
Democrats are more excited to vote, but the Biden campaign faces serious challenges. 15 Source: ABC News, 5/1/2020 (https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/house-democrats-ready-virtual-organizing-coronavirus-derails-ground/story?id=70415299); New York Times, 5/15/2020 (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/15/us/politics/joe-biden-campaign-2020.html); Reuters, n – 66,000 (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-enthusiasm-exclusive/exclusive-democrats-furious-with- trump-much-more-keen-to-vote-now-than-four-years-ago-reuters-ipsos-idUSKCN21X1AQ); Harvard CAPS-Harris, n = 1,854 registered voters, 5/13-14/2020 (https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp- content/uploads/2020/05/May20_HHP_RegisteredVoters_Crosstabs.pdf); Washington Post, 5/22/20 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/22/come-bidens-you-aint-black-comment-was-clearly- joke/); AP News, 6/2/2020 (https://apnews.com/b4801d97be64450b0cc5a8b839d0679b) But… • Key Democratic voting blocs will be harder to reach. With no door-to-door voter contact, Biden and Democrats look to push the campaign online with virtual townhalls. Lower income and minority groups do not have widespread access. • Rallies and public appearances will be limited. The structure of the convention uncertain. Throughout much of the pandemic, Biden has not been seen in public, but he has visited protest sites in the wake of police brutality demonstrations and held smaller in-person events recently. Pres. Trump, however, is holding a major rally in Tulsa, OK on June 20 where attendees will be asked to take steps to mitigate Coronavirus transmission. 62% 61% 70% 2012 2016 2020 Democrats’ Certainty of Voting
Biden Trump In May, Biden outraised Pres. Trump for the first time – but Pres. Trump has more cash on hand. Source: New York Times, 6/20/2020 (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/20/us/biden-trump-fundraising.html) Funds raised in May $74 million $80.8 million Pres. Trump is on track to raise more than $1 billion this summer. 16
Will Biden’s VP pick bring out the Democratic base, or keep them home? 17 Source: USA Today, 5/20/2020 (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/05/20/election-2020-why-some-democrats-say-joe-biden-needs-woman-color-vp/3115414001/); CNN, 5/21/2020 (https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/21/politics/biden-vp-kamala-harris-amy-klobuchar-elizabeth-warren/index.html); CNN, 5/23/2020 (https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/23/opinions/joe-biden-veep-stakes-shape-image- mitchell/index.html); Politico, 5/23/2020 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/23/black-activists-joe-biden-amy-klobuchar-vice-president-275326); CNN, 4/26/2020 (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/26/politics/stacey-abrams-joe-biden-2020-election/index.html); Politico, 5/28/2020 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/28/famed-democratic-pollster-pushing-biden-pick- warren-for-vp-285659) Biden has stated he will select a woman for his running mate and hopes to have the decision made by August 1. Others being considered: Harris and Rice could be more appealing to minority voters. Warren could bring left-leaning voters into the fold for Biden. Other potential VP options like Rice are viewed as less experienced than Warren and Harris. Sen. Kamala Harris (CA, former 2020 candidate) The short list: Susan Rice (former National Security Advisor) Sen. Elizabeth Warren (MA, former 2020 candidate) • Stacey Abrams • Sen. Tammy Baldwin (WI) • Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (MI) • Rep. Val Demings (FL-10) • Gov. Michele Lujan Grisham (NM) • Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (Mayor of Atlanta)
The Congressional Race
There are 35 Senate seats in play: 23 held by Republicans and 12 held by Democrats. 19 ü Democrats are looking to pick up toss-up seats in AZ, CO, NC, ME and MT. ü Republicans are looking to regain the AL Senate seat that currently leans Republican. ü Retirements: Senators Lamar Alexander (R-TN), Pat Roberts (R-KS), Johnny Isakson (R-GA), Mike Enzi (R-WY), and Tom Udall (D-NM) are all retiring. Democrats need to pick up 4 seats to retake the Senate. Denotes a state Hillary Clinton won in 2016 where a Republican Senator is up for re-election in 2020 Denotes a state Pres. Trump won in 2016 where a Democratic Senator is up for re-election in 2020 K Y
The most vulnerable Senate seats up in 2020 are currently held by Republicans. 20 Solid Dem Likely/Lean Dem Toss Up Likely/Lean Rep Solid Rep DE-Coons MN-Smith AZ-McSally AL-Jones AR-Cotton SD-Rounds IL-Durbin NM-Open CO-Gardner GA-Loeffler ID-Risch TN-Open MA-Markey MI-Peters ME-Collins GA- Perdue LA-Cassidy WV-Moore Capito NH-Shaheen NC-Tillis IA-Ernst MS-Hyde-Smith WY-Open NJ-Booker MT-Daines* KS-Open NE-Sasse OR-Merkley KY-McConnell* OK-Inhofe RI-Reed SC-Graham* VA-Warner TX-Cornyn AK-Sullivan* Source: Cook Political Report (https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings) To take the majority in the Senate, Democrats will need to retain all current seats and pick up four toss-ups. If Democrats and Republicans split the Senate, the Vice President will break the tie. *denotes a race that has recently become more competitive
Key Senate races lean toward Democratic challengers. Sources: Fox News, 5/30-6/2/2020, n = 1000 AZ voters (https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/06/35199d36-Fox_May-30-June-2-2020_Complete_Arizona_Topline_June-3-Release.pdf); 538 (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-arizona-georgia-and-texas-really-in-play/; Public Policy Polling, n = 872 Maine residents, 3/2-3/2020 (https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/MaineResults.pdf); Keating Research, n = 600 likely CO Voters, 5/1-3/2020 (https://ewscripps.brightspotcdn.com/00/84/bbf8579e40d3ab2839a2f96d81d9/kom-colorado-poll-may-2020-topline-results-all-questions-for-release.pdf); Meeting Street Insight, n = 500 registered NC voters, 5/9-13/2020 (https://cprnc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/NC-Statewide-Survey-May-2020-Crosstabs-For-Release-v4.pdf) 21 Arizona Colorado Maine North Carolina Incumbent: Martha McSally (R) Challenger: Mark Kelly (D) Recent polling: Kelly +13 If Kelly can maintain this lead, it may help Biden in this R-leaning state Incumbent: Susan Collins (R) Challenger (presumed): Sara Gideon (D) Recent polling: Gideon +4 Incumbent: Cory Gardner (R) Challenger (presumed): John Hickenlooper (D) Recent polling: Hickenlooper +18 Incumbent: Thom Tillis (R) Challenger: Cal Cunningham (D) Recent polling: Cunningham +1 Races in Montana, Alabama, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, and South Carolina will also be interesting to watch.
Republicans need to pick up 20 seats in 2020 to retake the House. 22 Democrats 233 Republicans 198 Independents 1 Vacant 4 Retirements: 27 House Republicans and 9 House Democrats are retiring. Democrats hold 16 seats that are currently labeled “toss ups.” Only 6 Republican seats hold the same distinction.
Lean Dem Toss Up Lean Rep AZ-01 O’Halleran NH-01 Pappas CA-21 Cox NM-02 Torres Small CA-25 Garcia AZ-06 Schweikert NJ-02 Van Drew CA-39 Cisneros NJ-07 Malinowski GA-06 McBath NY-11 Rose GA-07 Open FL-15 Spano NY-02 Open CA-48 Rouda NV-03 Lee IA-01 Finkenauer NY-22 Brindisi IL-13 Davis IN-05 Open OH-01 Chabot FL-26 Mucarsel- Powell NY-19 Delgado IA-02 Open OK-05 Horn PA-10 Perry MI-03 Amash* PA-01 Fitzpatrick IL-14 Underwood PA-07 Wild IA-03 Axne PA-08 Cartwright TX-22 Open MO-02 Wagner TX-10 McCaul KS-03 Davids TX-07 Fletcher ME-02 Golden SC-01 Cunningham TX-24 Open MT-At Large Open TX-21 Roy MI-08 Slotkin TX-23 Open MN-07 Peterson VA-02 Luria NE-02 Bacon MI-11 Stevens TX-32 Allred NJ-03 Kim VA-07 Spanberger MN-02 Craig UT-04 McAdams To take control of the House, Republicans will need to retain all current seats and flip 20 additional seats. More vulnerable seats are held by Democrats, but most predict the House will remain under Democratic control. 23 Source: Cook Political Report (https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings) Italics denote freshman representatives *denotes an Independent
Upcoming calendar Date Event June 23 Primaries in Kentucky* and New York* July 7 Primaries in Delaware* and New Jersey* July 11 Primary in Louisiana* July 12 Primary in Puerto Rico* Aug. 11 Primary in Connecticut* Aug. 17-20 Democratic convention in Milwaukee, WI* Aug. 24-27 Republican convention in Jacksonville, FL (originally planned for Charlotte, NC) Nov. 3 Election Day 24 * Rescheduled from earlier dates.

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GPG Election Update

  • 1.
    June 2020 The Stateof the Election: American Attitudes in a Time of Crisis
  • 2.
  • 3.
    Dual crises setagainst the backdrop of a recession. 3 Sources: NBC News, 6/21/2020 (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-coronavirus-death-toll-surpasses-120-000-china-south-n1231663); Politico, n =1,981, 5/29-6/1/2020 (https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000172-76e4-d9bc-a1f7-7eefb03b0000); The Economist/YouGov, n = 1,500, 6/7-9/2020 (https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/ngcg634q9k/econTabReport.pdf); The Economist/YouGov, n = 1,500, 3/8-10/2020 (https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/1ghnpqhhpu/econToplines.pdf ); The Hill, 6/11/2020 (https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/502220-harvard- health-expert-anticipates-100000-more-us); CNN, 6/17/2020 (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html); NYT, 6/18/2020 (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html) Covid-19 deaths top 120k Many are still out of workPolice brutality and protests - Nearly half of all states are showing upward trends in new cases. - Heading into summer, some governors are committed to reopening, while others warn they may need to renew restrictions. - Experts predict deaths will hit 200k by October. - Nearly 1 in 6 are unemployed even with states beginning to reopen. - 64% of Americans predict it will take at least a year for the U.S. economy to fully recover. - The Congressional Budget Office projects the economy won’t fully recover until 2030. - Protests have continued for over three weeks across the nation, renewing calls for racial justice and policing reform. - Both Democrats and Republicans have criticized the President’s actions. The number of Americans who believe the country is off on the wrong track is up 13 points from 51% in March (now 64%).
  • 4.
    While approval ofPres. Trump held steady during the Coronavirus pandemic, police brutality and Black Lives Matter protests drove a sharp downturn. 29-Jan-1729-M ar-1729-M ay-1729-Jul-1729-Sep-1729-N ov-1729-Jan-1829-M ar-1829-M ay-1829-Jul-1829-Sep-1829-N ov-1829-Jan-1929-M ar-1929-M ay-1929-Jul-1929-Sep-1929-N ov-1929-Jan-2029-M ar-2029-M ay-20 January 2017 June 2020 47% disapprove 45% approve 57% disapprove 39% approve Source: Gallup, 1/29/2017-6/3/2020, n=1500 Adults Daily (https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx) Peak disapproval: 60% after Kavanaugh/during the 2018 midterms Peak approval: 49% throughout much of the coronavirus 4-Jun-20 Approval by party Democrats 5% Independents 39% Republicans 85% Pres. Trump’s approval has dropped at previous points throughout his term, and each time he has recovered and narrowed the gap. It remains to be seen if he will do the same this time. 4
  • 5.
    The Black LivesMatter movement has gained significant support and momentum. Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 June 2017 41% oppose 38% support Source: Washington Post, n= 1,006 adults, 6/2-7/20 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/june-2-7-2020-washington-post-schar-poll/6b811cdf-8f99-4e28-b8f1-c76df335c16a/?itid=lk_inline_manual_9) ; Monmouth, n=807 adults, 5/28-6/1/20 (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_060220.pdf/); Reuters, n=1,113 adults, 6/9-10/20 (https://graphics.reuters.com/USA- ELECTION/qmypmorxgpr/Topline%20Reuters%20George%20Floyd%20Protests%20%20Police%20Reform%2006%2010%202020.pdf ); Civiqs,, n=100k adults over 3 years (https://civiqs.com/results/black_lives_matter?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true) June 2020 29% oppose 52% support The BLM movement has seen significant growth in support in a very short period. 3 in 4 Americans support protests, as the country begins to shift views on racial discrimination and police violence. Support / opposition: Black Lives Matter movement76%now consider racism and discrimination a big problem. 69% now say that police killings are are a sign of broader problems. +26 pts. from 2015 +26 pts. from 2014 A majority of Americans – both Republican and Democrat – now support sweeping law enforcement reforms. 5
  • 6.
    In the midstof unrest, Coronavirus continues to be a priority on Americans’ minds. 6 Sources: Axios/Ipsos, n = 1,022, 6/12-15/2020 (https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-06/topline-axios-poll-w13.pdf); Gallup, n=1,000 adults, 6/1-7/2020 (https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-important-problem.aspx) However, belief that “the worst is yet to come” from the virus is down from April. 47% 46% Worst is behind us Worst is yet to come Down from 80% in April 19% 19% 20% 21% Race relations / racism Economic problems Coronavirus The government / leadership Coronavirus is tied with leadership, the economy, and race relations as the most important problem facing the country.
  • 7.
    There is asharp political divide between Republicans and Democrats on reopening. 7 Sources: Washington Post, 5/26/2020 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-calls-mask-wearing-politically-correct-biden-calls-him-a-fool/2020/05/26/a58025e6-9f9c-11ea-81bb- c2f70f01034b_story.html); The Economist/YouGov, n = 1,500, 6/14-16/2020 (https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/vgqowgynze/econTabReport.pdf); FactCheck, 6/16/2020 (https://www.factcheck.org/2020/06/ahead-of- trump-rally-republicans-spin-covid-19-metrics/); Kaiser, n = 1,189, 5/13-18/2020 (http://files.kff.org/attachment/Topline-KFF-Health-Tracking-Poll-May-2020.pdf) 4% 6% 8% 31% 33% 34% 6% 11% 26% 8% It is safe right now In about two weeks In a month or so In several months In about a year or longer Democrats Republicans When will it be safe to reopen business as normal? As masks have become a political symbol, the White House has suggested that the recent uptick in COVID-19 cases in some states is driven by increases in testing. (Testing accounts for some of the rise but doesn’t explain all of it.) Democrats are almost twice as likely as Republicans (70% to 37%) to say they wear a mask every time they leave their house.
  • 8.
    But both Democratsand Republicans show support for governors’ handling of the crisis. 8 Three of the highest rated governors are moderate Republicans who have clashed with President Trump: Gov. Larry Hogan (MD), Gov. Phil Scott (VT), Gov. Charlie Baker (MA). Democratic governor average = 69% Republican governor average = 67% The lowest rated governor: Gov. Brian Kemp (GA) at 43% 75% 76% 78% 80% 80% 82% 82% 82% 82% 85% Montana Gov. Steve Bullock (D) Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont (D) North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R) Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) Vermont Gov. Phil Scott (R) Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker (R) New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) Approval of Governor’s handling of Coronavirus by residents (top 10) Sources: The Washington Post, n = 123,335, 4/30-5/13/2020 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/19/49-50-governors-have-better-coronavirus-numbers-than-trump/)
  • 9.
    Americans are nervousabout heading to the polls in November. Two-thirds support mail-in voting. 9 52% of voters are are more likely to cast their vote by mail rather than in person this November if given the opportunity. Sources: Marist, n = 1,007, 5/12-17/2020 (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/UPDATED_NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202005191427.pdf#page=3); Gallup, 4/14-28/2020 (https://news.gallup.com/poll/310586/americans-favor-voting-mail-option-november.aspx) 64% 40% 68% 83% Total Republican Independent Democrat Support for mail-in voting is high, but split along party lines.
  • 10.
    Both parties aregearing up for a mail-in voting fight and are pursuing legal challenges. 10 Sources: National Vote at Home Institute, 3/2020 (https://www.voteathome.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/VAHScale_StrategyPlan.pdf); The Brennen Center, 4/18/2020 (https://www.brennancenter.org/our- work/research-reports/estimated-costs-covid-19-election-resiliency-measures); FiveThirtyEight, 4/27/2020 (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/few-states-are-prepared-to-switch-to-voting-by-mail-that-could-make-for- a-messy-election/); The Washington Post, 5/20/2020 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/20/what-are-arguments-against-voting-by-mail/); The New York Times, 4/11/2020 (https://www.nytimes.com/article/mail-in-voting-explained.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage) Real Barriers: • There are logistical and planning challenges. States will need to work through several questions – including pre-paid return ballots, application processes for mail-in voting, and storage and tracking of ballots – as part of expanding options for voters. • States also face financial challenges to expanding mail-in voting. One think tank estimates that voting by mail will cost $1-2 billion to implement. Myths: • Myth: The process benefits one political party over the other. Reports examining mail-in elections from 1996 to 2018 have shown that both turnout and vote share remained even across parties over the course of those elections. • Myth: Voting by mail will increase voter fraud. The five states that currently conduct all voting by mail – Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah, and Washington – report very little voter fraud, and all voting fraud across the U.S. is very low. Courts have previously ruled that while voting is a right, voting early or by mail is only a privilege.
  • 11.
  • 12.
    Biden holds leadsnationally and in most key swing states. Source: RealClearPolitics, 5/28-6/16/2020 (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html); Fox News, 5/30-6/2/2020, 801 WI voters (https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/06/Fox_May-30-June-2-2020_Complete_Wisconsin_Topline_June-3-Release.pdf); CNBC, 5/29-31/2020, n = 1,186 likely FL voters, 579 likely PA voters (https://www.changeresearch.com/post/states-of-play-battleground-wave-6); EPIC-MRA, 5/30-6/3/2020, n = 600 likely MI voters (https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/06/07/michigan-poll-biden-leading-trump-12- points/3153501001/); PPP, 6/2-3/2020, n = 949 (https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/NCResultsJune2020.pdf); Fox News, 5/30-6/2/2020, n = 1000 AZ voters (https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/06/35199d36-Fox_May-30-June-2-2020_Complete_Arizona_Topline_June-3-Release.pdf); Fox News, 5/30-6/2/2020, n = 803 OH voters (https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/06/Fox_May-30-June-2-2020_Complete_Ohio_Topline_June-3-Release.pdf); Star Tribune, 5/18-20/2020, n = 800 MN voters (https://www.startribune.com/star-tribune-mpr-news- kare-11-minnesota-poll-presidential-race/570571341/) VP Joe Biden 50% 12 Popular Vote Battleground Advantages President Trump 42% Florida Biden +3 Arizona Biden +4 Michigan Biden +12 Wisconsin Biden +9 Pennsylvania Trump +4 Ohio Biden +2* North Carolina Biden +4 *denotes polling within the margin of error Minnesota Biden +5 Based on aggregated polling from May 28 – June 16 Biden currently leads in 7 of 8 key swing states Pres. Trump won in 2016.
  • 13.
    53% 56% 53% 45%45% 44% 45% 47% 20082012 2016 2020 Clinton Trump Obama Obama Romney McCain President Trump is losing support among traditional Republican strongholds. 13 Source: Fox News, n = 1,207 registered voters, 5/17-2020 (https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/05/7ab2e761-Fox_May-17-20-2020_Complete_National_Topline_May-21-Release.pdf); The Economist/YouGov, n = 1,500 adult Americans, 5/23-26/2020 (https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5fsvmrvvhh/econTabReport.pdf); New York Times exit polls (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html); CNN exit polls, 2008, 20102, 2016 (https://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1; https://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/; https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls); Marist, n = 1,062, 6/2-3/2020 (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp- content/uploads/2020/06/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_2006041039.pdf ) Democrats will look to expand their voting base going into November – shifts among these demographics will be key. Suburban voters: 48% 50% 50% 36% 50% 48% 45% 52% 2008 2012 2016 2020 Clinton Trump Obama Obama Romney McCain D +2 R +2 R +5 Voters over 65: R +8 R +12 R +8 Biden Trump D +16 D +2 Biden Trump current polling current polling White women: 53% 56% 52% 44% 46% 42% 43% 51% 2008 2012 2016 2020 Clinton Trump Obama Obama Romney McCain R +14 R +9 D +7R +7 Biden Trump current polling
  • 14.
    186 28 3486 78 126 Despite Biden’s recent surge in national polling, the electoral map still shows a tight race to come. 14 K Y Electoral vote counter: Democrat: 248 Republican: 204 Safe Democrat Likely Democrat Toss up Likely Republican Safe Republican Source: Cook Political Report, 6/19/2020 (https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/new-2020-electoral-college-ratings) Need 270 to win Changes since March 2020: • Michigan moved from toss up to leans Democrat • Ohio and Iowa moved from likely Republican to leans Republican
  • 15.
    Democrats are moreexcited to vote, but the Biden campaign faces serious challenges. 15 Source: ABC News, 5/1/2020 (https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/house-democrats-ready-virtual-organizing-coronavirus-derails-ground/story?id=70415299); New York Times, 5/15/2020 (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/15/us/politics/joe-biden-campaign-2020.html); Reuters, n – 66,000 (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-enthusiasm-exclusive/exclusive-democrats-furious-with- trump-much-more-keen-to-vote-now-than-four-years-ago-reuters-ipsos-idUSKCN21X1AQ); Harvard CAPS-Harris, n = 1,854 registered voters, 5/13-14/2020 (https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp- content/uploads/2020/05/May20_HHP_RegisteredVoters_Crosstabs.pdf); Washington Post, 5/22/20 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/22/come-bidens-you-aint-black-comment-was-clearly- joke/); AP News, 6/2/2020 (https://apnews.com/b4801d97be64450b0cc5a8b839d0679b) But… • Key Democratic voting blocs will be harder to reach. With no door-to-door voter contact, Biden and Democrats look to push the campaign online with virtual townhalls. Lower income and minority groups do not have widespread access. • Rallies and public appearances will be limited. The structure of the convention uncertain. Throughout much of the pandemic, Biden has not been seen in public, but he has visited protest sites in the wake of police brutality demonstrations and held smaller in-person events recently. Pres. Trump, however, is holding a major rally in Tulsa, OK on June 20 where attendees will be asked to take steps to mitigate Coronavirus transmission. 62% 61% 70% 2012 2016 2020 Democrats’ Certainty of Voting
  • 16.
    Biden Trump In May, Bidenoutraised Pres. Trump for the first time – but Pres. Trump has more cash on hand. Source: New York Times, 6/20/2020 (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/20/us/biden-trump-fundraising.html) Funds raised in May $74 million $80.8 million Pres. Trump is on track to raise more than $1 billion this summer. 16
  • 17.
    Will Biden’s VPpick bring out the Democratic base, or keep them home? 17 Source: USA Today, 5/20/2020 (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/05/20/election-2020-why-some-democrats-say-joe-biden-needs-woman-color-vp/3115414001/); CNN, 5/21/2020 (https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/21/politics/biden-vp-kamala-harris-amy-klobuchar-elizabeth-warren/index.html); CNN, 5/23/2020 (https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/23/opinions/joe-biden-veep-stakes-shape-image- mitchell/index.html); Politico, 5/23/2020 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/23/black-activists-joe-biden-amy-klobuchar-vice-president-275326); CNN, 4/26/2020 (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/26/politics/stacey-abrams-joe-biden-2020-election/index.html); Politico, 5/28/2020 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/28/famed-democratic-pollster-pushing-biden-pick- warren-for-vp-285659) Biden has stated he will select a woman for his running mate and hopes to have the decision made by August 1. Others being considered: Harris and Rice could be more appealing to minority voters. Warren could bring left-leaning voters into the fold for Biden. Other potential VP options like Rice are viewed as less experienced than Warren and Harris. Sen. Kamala Harris (CA, former 2020 candidate) The short list: Susan Rice (former National Security Advisor) Sen. Elizabeth Warren (MA, former 2020 candidate) • Stacey Abrams • Sen. Tammy Baldwin (WI) • Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (MI) • Rep. Val Demings (FL-10) • Gov. Michele Lujan Grisham (NM) • Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (Mayor of Atlanta)
  • 18.
  • 19.
    There are 35Senate seats in play: 23 held by Republicans and 12 held by Democrats. 19 ü Democrats are looking to pick up toss-up seats in AZ, CO, NC, ME and MT. ü Republicans are looking to regain the AL Senate seat that currently leans Republican. ü Retirements: Senators Lamar Alexander (R-TN), Pat Roberts (R-KS), Johnny Isakson (R-GA), Mike Enzi (R-WY), and Tom Udall (D-NM) are all retiring. Democrats need to pick up 4 seats to retake the Senate. Denotes a state Hillary Clinton won in 2016 where a Republican Senator is up for re-election in 2020 Denotes a state Pres. Trump won in 2016 where a Democratic Senator is up for re-election in 2020 K Y
  • 20.
    The most vulnerableSenate seats up in 2020 are currently held by Republicans. 20 Solid Dem Likely/Lean Dem Toss Up Likely/Lean Rep Solid Rep DE-Coons MN-Smith AZ-McSally AL-Jones AR-Cotton SD-Rounds IL-Durbin NM-Open CO-Gardner GA-Loeffler ID-Risch TN-Open MA-Markey MI-Peters ME-Collins GA- Perdue LA-Cassidy WV-Moore Capito NH-Shaheen NC-Tillis IA-Ernst MS-Hyde-Smith WY-Open NJ-Booker MT-Daines* KS-Open NE-Sasse OR-Merkley KY-McConnell* OK-Inhofe RI-Reed SC-Graham* VA-Warner TX-Cornyn AK-Sullivan* Source: Cook Political Report (https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings) To take the majority in the Senate, Democrats will need to retain all current seats and pick up four toss-ups. If Democrats and Republicans split the Senate, the Vice President will break the tie. *denotes a race that has recently become more competitive
  • 21.
    Key Senate raceslean toward Democratic challengers. Sources: Fox News, 5/30-6/2/2020, n = 1000 AZ voters (https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/06/35199d36-Fox_May-30-June-2-2020_Complete_Arizona_Topline_June-3-Release.pdf); 538 (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-arizona-georgia-and-texas-really-in-play/; Public Policy Polling, n = 872 Maine residents, 3/2-3/2020 (https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/MaineResults.pdf); Keating Research, n = 600 likely CO Voters, 5/1-3/2020 (https://ewscripps.brightspotcdn.com/00/84/bbf8579e40d3ab2839a2f96d81d9/kom-colorado-poll-may-2020-topline-results-all-questions-for-release.pdf); Meeting Street Insight, n = 500 registered NC voters, 5/9-13/2020 (https://cprnc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/NC-Statewide-Survey-May-2020-Crosstabs-For-Release-v4.pdf) 21 Arizona Colorado Maine North Carolina Incumbent: Martha McSally (R) Challenger: Mark Kelly (D) Recent polling: Kelly +13 If Kelly can maintain this lead, it may help Biden in this R-leaning state Incumbent: Susan Collins (R) Challenger (presumed): Sara Gideon (D) Recent polling: Gideon +4 Incumbent: Cory Gardner (R) Challenger (presumed): John Hickenlooper (D) Recent polling: Hickenlooper +18 Incumbent: Thom Tillis (R) Challenger: Cal Cunningham (D) Recent polling: Cunningham +1 Races in Montana, Alabama, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, and South Carolina will also be interesting to watch.
  • 22.
    Republicans need topick up 20 seats in 2020 to retake the House. 22 Democrats 233 Republicans 198 Independents 1 Vacant 4 Retirements: 27 House Republicans and 9 House Democrats are retiring. Democrats hold 16 seats that are currently labeled “toss ups.” Only 6 Republican seats hold the same distinction.
  • 23.
    Lean Dem TossUp Lean Rep AZ-01 O’Halleran NH-01 Pappas CA-21 Cox NM-02 Torres Small CA-25 Garcia AZ-06 Schweikert NJ-02 Van Drew CA-39 Cisneros NJ-07 Malinowski GA-06 McBath NY-11 Rose GA-07 Open FL-15 Spano NY-02 Open CA-48 Rouda NV-03 Lee IA-01 Finkenauer NY-22 Brindisi IL-13 Davis IN-05 Open OH-01 Chabot FL-26 Mucarsel- Powell NY-19 Delgado IA-02 Open OK-05 Horn PA-10 Perry MI-03 Amash* PA-01 Fitzpatrick IL-14 Underwood PA-07 Wild IA-03 Axne PA-08 Cartwright TX-22 Open MO-02 Wagner TX-10 McCaul KS-03 Davids TX-07 Fletcher ME-02 Golden SC-01 Cunningham TX-24 Open MT-At Large Open TX-21 Roy MI-08 Slotkin TX-23 Open MN-07 Peterson VA-02 Luria NE-02 Bacon MI-11 Stevens TX-32 Allred NJ-03 Kim VA-07 Spanberger MN-02 Craig UT-04 McAdams To take control of the House, Republicans will need to retain all current seats and flip 20 additional seats. More vulnerable seats are held by Democrats, but most predict the House will remain under Democratic control. 23 Source: Cook Political Report (https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings) Italics denote freshman representatives *denotes an Independent
  • 24.
    Upcoming calendar Date Event June23 Primaries in Kentucky* and New York* July 7 Primaries in Delaware* and New Jersey* July 11 Primary in Louisiana* July 12 Primary in Puerto Rico* Aug. 11 Primary in Connecticut* Aug. 17-20 Democratic convention in Milwaukee, WI* Aug. 24-27 Republican convention in Jacksonville, FL (originally planned for Charlotte, NC) Nov. 3 Election Day 24 * Rescheduled from earlier dates.