{"active_triggers":[{"country":"BY","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"country":"CN","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"country":"EG","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"country":"IR","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"country":"MM","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"country":"PK","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"country":"RU","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"country":"VE","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"country":"AE","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"country":"AZ","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"country":"CU","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"country":"ET","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"country":"JO","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"country":"LB","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"country":"LY","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"country":"OM","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"country":"TN","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"country":"TZ","trigger_date":"2026-09-21T00:00:00"},{"country":"ID","trigger_date":"2026-09-20T18:40:00"}],"country":"TW","generated_at":"2026-09-22T18:17:09.254315+00:00","honest_caveats":["Inherits contagion-chain v1 model uncertainty (primary horizon AUC ~0.67).","24-48h is a TIGHT window. Most observed contagion patterns are 3-7d. This endpoint uses the shortest supported horizon (3d) as the closest proxy.","A country on the watchlist does NOT mean it WILL block. The score is a relative ranking; absolute calibration of the underlying pairwise classifier is moderate (Brier ~0.14 at 3d).","Trigger attribution is probabilistic (per-pair model output), not causal. Two countries spiking around the same time can also reflect shared upstream outages, regional politics, or coincidence.","Noisy-OR aggregation assumes triggers act independently \u2014 this overestimates risk when multiple triggers share an underlying driver.","Base-rate adjustment subtracts (base_daily * horizon) to discount countries that block every day anyway. This is a heuristic, not a matched counterfactual.","With zero active triggers in the last 48h, watchlist is empty by design."],"message":"TW was not scored on the current watchlist. Either it is outside the contagion-chain candidate set (20 countries) or no triggers fired in the last 48h.","n_active_triggers":19,"status":"not_on_watchlist"}