People who consider bitcoin as a ponzi basically have no knowledge of bitcoin itself. Although it is marketed like a ponzi because it can make people rich without having to work hard, basically those who think like that are those who do not have enough knowledge about bitcoin. In fact, almost every year there is bad sentiment towards bitcoin, but bitcoin remains strong and is currently growing and developing.

However, even so, people who do not believe in bitcoin or consider bitcoin as a ponzi are not our enemies. If they consider Bitcoin as a ponzi, a pyramid scheme, those who buy at the top always profit, and have no basis in fact they do not have knowledge about bitcoin.

They need to study the size of the bitcoin mining industry which uses more energy than the US military, they also have to see countries like El Salvador have admitted that there are even plans to build geothermal mines, and they also have to look at the Middle East where bitcoin is actually very encouraged and supported by the government. So actually people who consider bitcoin as a ponzi, they do not fully understand bitcoin. They need to be educated in the right way, so that they can realize the benefits of bitcoin.

In fact, if they are observant in looking at bitcoin, they understand that bitcoin is an interesting phenomenon. Without being controlled by anyone, trust in Bitcoin has continued to increase since it was created several years ago and surely Bitcoin will be many times more expensive than the current price of Bitcoin.

I agree bitcoin seems to have become a ponzi scheme. Majority of people I meet in bitcoin view it as a get rich quick scheme. They'll never say that directly but all of them believe that if they hold onto their bitcoin some day they will be rich, even to the point they will go into credit card debt to buy more bitcoin. They have very little knowledge of how it works and most don't self custody which defeats the whole purpose of owning bitcoin.

Bitcoin makes more sense for countries and people that don't have a stable store of value but the vast majority of all bitcoin holders are from developed countries where they have alternative store of value assets like gold, real-estate, and stocks. The moment bitcoin stops out performing the S&P500 everyone will sell out.

I do believe in bitcoin. The tech is great but people seem to have turned it into something it isn't. Its become more of a religious cult making bold claims that bitcoin would solve all our problems. With people like micheal saylor going billions into debt because they "just believe" it will always go up. These people will deny any vulnerabilities of bitcoin and call it a perfect money when nothing in the real world is perfect. things are only perfect in theory. everything has trade offs.


I don't believe any large countries/central banks will have a strategic reserve. Maybe a small reserve but not a large amount. theres too many vulnerabilities for a country such as the USA to hold bitcoin. If for example USA did have a reserve but then world war 3 breaks out. China has plenty of resources to building enough miners and get enough energy to cripple bitcoins network. making the USA bitcoin useless.

Take for example if the USA kept gold as a reserve. China would have to go through the USA military which has an annual budget of 800billion and invade 100s of miles into the USA and bust into fort knoxs and steal the gold. Which would be much harder to pull off then spinning up 10GW of power for some miners in their own country.

It might be easier to pull off a sybil attack rather than miner attack but I haven't done enough research on sybil.

Thanks for your interesting contribution. I'm a bit more optimistic than you, and I don't believe Bitcoin has already become a Ponzi scheme. As of now, I think it is as much a Ponzi as Apple or Nvidia: it is probably overvalued due to get-quick-rich speculation, if we compare the current price of $100.000 to the current adoption for non-speculative reasons (currency, long term savings, remittances etc.), but it has still a big potential for adoption so if we take into account possible future usage, it's perhaps indeed not overvalued at this point.

That features like Taproot, which improves privacy (despite that aspect not being liked by most governments), got added to the code relatively recently, and the development of interesting solutions like BitVM is an indication that the ecosystem surrounding Bitcoin is still healthy. But there are clouds on the horizon already.

I agree here mostly, although in countries like Argentina and Nigeria Bitcoin is also quite popular -- I think many people hold some BTC or altcoins there but relatively low amounts. About a possible selloff, I agree that it's likely that we'll see crashes like in 2018 and 2022 also after this next bubble pops. My hope is however that the selloff could be a little bit less pronounced, perhaps only 50 or 60 % instead of more than 75%, due to more "dip buyers".

Regarding Saylor: he has a business model that works for him, so his behaviour is in my opinion not cultish but predictable. He simply communicates in a way his company benefits most. But that doesn't make him a credible Bitcoin supporter.

This is also my take on the issue. Some big countries could hodl a few hundred thousands, in the order of magnitude of the coins that were already seized from Silk Road etc., perhaps a bit more. It's also better in my opinion of central banks and nation-states don't hold too many Bitcoins, otherwise they would get too much power in the case of another fork upgrade (like in the 2017 Segwit dispute).

In this scenario I'd expect US and its allies to build up mining potential too. However, you're correct that an 51% strategy would still be easier than an attack to Fort Knox. WW3 is also imo a very unlikely scenario, but that's OT here

When there are positive effects, the Bitcoin market recovers and the value of the asset increases. While many believe that it is a bubble and that the price of Bitcoin will head towards a serious correction.

Exceeding the 100,000 threshold means that Bitcoin will succeed in having the value it deserves.

Political changes in the world are among the biggest influencers on the crypto market, and with the expansion of the cryptocurrency market, the degree of influence becomes widely available.
Among Trump's promises during his election campaign, he will pass more flexible legislation in the field of cryptocurrencies, and he also touched on the idea of ​​​​establishing a strategic national reserve of Bitcoin, and therefore he received support during his campaign from groups active in the field of digital currencies