Day 22 - Vaccination

This is something that became extremely popular world over since mid-2020 when a Covid-struck world started thinking about a strong armour to beat the virus. On January 16, 2021, India began its anti-Covid vaccination programme.

It's been controversial too.  But not in India, where there was so much enthusiasm that on the very first day, people complained about technical glitches in the software to manage the programme.

There has been hardly any vaccine hesitancy here. If at all people didn't get jabbed, it was mainly because of complacency or laziness.

Right now, the administration of precaution dose or the booster dose is ongoing. I got mine a few days ago, on Saturday. 

Close to 2 billion doses have been administered in India so far -- first, second and booster put together.

The Union Government's CoWIN dashboard gives all the details.

There have been cases of people developing adverse reactions. But they are just 0.005% of all the people who got immunized.

BETTER BE JABBED THAN BE IN HOSPITAL

It's not that there isn't anyone skeptical of the vaccination, be it of any manufacturer. 

Just yesterday, The Times of India reported quoting experts of the government's own ICMR-National Institute of Virology that both Covishield and Covaxin might be less effective against the latest variant of Omicron for people who haven't already contracted Covid compared to those who had contracted the disease.

But the overwhelming perception seems to be: better get vaccinated (manage the minor fever or body pain, nausea, etc., thereafter, if at all) and be safe rather than contract Covid and get hospitalized.

There is also a feeling that a number of Indians have acquired some amount of herd immunity, thanks to the crowded public places.

INDIA'S NATIONAL IMMUNIZATION PROGRAMME

Getting vaccinated is nothing new for us, since our government has had, for so many decades, a robust vaccination programme even before Covid happened.

A baby is vaccinated against BCG, Hepatitis B, and polio soon after birth.

Then follows, at regular intervals, more doses of vaccines against:

• polio
   
• diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, hepatitis B and haemophilus influenzae type b (pentavalent vaccine)
  
  
• rotavirus
  
  
• measles, mumps and rubella
  
  
• Japanese Encephalitis
  
  
• deficiencies of vitamin A
  
  
• DPT (diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus) booster doses and 
  
  
• tetanus 

All this ends only when the child is 16 years of age.

The only difference between these vaccines and the Covid vaccines is that the latter were developed very recently, at a hectic pace, against a deadline, without probably as many trials as probably they would have required, to fight a disease that we are yet to understand fully.

The way I see it is: it's better to get vaccinated than not.

Image by cromaconceptovisual from Pixabay

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This post is part of the blogging challenge in April every year, wherein bloggers put up one post a day, from A to Z, every day except Sundays. 

I'm participating in #BlogchatterA2Z. I am also on A2Z April Challenge.

Day 17 - Quarantine

Easily, the most common, Q word, these days. It just generally means isolation, though of course there is a technical difference.

Isolation is when you are infected and you stay away from others.

Quarantine is when you might not be actually sick or infected, but you have a doubt that you might be. So in order to avoid the risk of infecting others in case you are infected, you stay away from others.  

Quarantine is a phenomenon that Covid brought into our lives. In 2020, in August-September, I was in quarantine thrice. Not because I had Covid, but people I came in contact with had Covid.

Now we are living in an era, when even if someone sneezes or coughs, even if intermittently, others would move away! Most employers discourage their employees from coming to office even if they have cold / cough.   

Though Covid Era might not have ended, the Quarantine Era seems to have ended.

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This post is part of the blogging challenge in April every year, wherein bloggers put up one post a day, from A to Z, every day except Sundays. 

I'm participating in #BlogchatterA2Z. I am also on A2Z April Challenge.

Image credit: Pixabay

The Covidified world

Every time we hear of more infections, hospitalisations and deaths owing to Covid, there is an involuntary exclamation of resignation: how long will this agony last?

When I say it's going to be around for some time, I am branded as a pessimist, and sometimes worse, a doomsayer! I am neither. I only wonder how the virus can just vanish in a few weeks or even months from the face of the earth. 

We have seen how the pandemic has broken national and state borders that segregate the over 7.5 billion people of the world. The coronavirus has permeated through even the most well-fortified barriers.

We have also learnt that it's not just the marvels of telecommunication that have made this world a global village, it's also the travellers, mainly the international ones.

THE MSS TRIUMVIRATE

There is now a new world order (not economic but social), dictated by Mask, Sanitiser and Social Distance. 

It's okay if friends aren't invited for social occasions. It's also okay if we aren't invited.

It's okay if friends don't call on us when they are in our city. It's also okay if we don't call on them when we are in their city.  

Looks like we are beginning to make peace with the microscopic parasite. The villainous ring around it seems to be gradually dissipating.

Lockdowns are giving way to self-isolation.

Government-mandated testing procedures are giving way to testing in the comforts of our homes with home-kits.

Results of self-testing at home are also being considered official. That's, obviously, if people volunteer to inform the government.

"HAVEN'T SEEN YOU FOR AWHILE ... ALL WELL?"

No one wants to take a chance these days. Some aren't even testing if they have symptoms or have been a close contact. They immediately self-isolate. When there are symptoms, how does it matter if it's Covid or not: better to isolate, is the refrain.

But if someone hasn't been seen in public for a few days, does it automatically mean s/he was self-isolating, with or without Covid? 

Or it's just because s/he had an injury in her/his leg, and was confining to indoors?

Welcome to the Covidified world!

A mom's concern

I was passing by a school. The classes for the day had just got over and the children -- mostly in the 7 to 10 age group -- were streaming out of the main gate.

There were parents or guardians waiting to pick up the kids. A small boy, may be around 7 or 8 years old, on seeing his mom (or may be his guardian), ran towards her, and hugged her.

The first thing she did was to adjust her son's mask to the correct position. 

Just as she was doing that, the boy sneezed, twice.

The next instinctive reaction of the mom was to anxiously touch his son's forehead and neck, obviously, to check if he had fever.

PS:

Omicron has arrived in India, it looks like, as indicated by the breakneck speed at which the daily positive cases is increasing. Virologists are expecting this 3rd wave in India to peak next month.

Back to square one

Days have been so hectic that blogs have taken a backseat. Got a day off today after nearly two weeks. During these days, I neither posted anything nor checked any post of my favourite bloggers. Will catch up soon.

Just as we are planning to go back to full-attendance in the office from December 1, emerges Omicron. Early days still. We only know that this variant has an unusually large number of mutations. We will get a clearer picture in the next week or so.

But borders are slamming shut again. It's at best a temporary measure, that will help slow down the spread of virus.

One day before Omicron was identified, India had announced that normal commercial flights will resume on December 15. Now, the plan has been revised, and a whole lot of regulations have been put in place for fliers from abroad from Dec 1. Even within India, states are making testing compulsory from travellers from some states where the numbers are high.

It will be too unrealistic to believe that one day Omicron won't surface in India. We have been doing extremely well with vaccinations, and our only hope is that the vaccine will be good against Omicron, at least keep the infection mild.

No vaccine hesitancy, and India is back to pre-Covid days, almost

Image courtesy: Pixabay

If I said that day-to-day life here in Bengaluru, and in the rest of India has returned to pre-Covid levels, it would not be an exaggeration at all.

People are all over place. Buses and metro are running packed. The traffic congestion is back. Commuting is taking time. 

The cap the government had imposed on the number of passengers domestic airlines could carry has been removed. 

Schools, colleges and offices have reopened though all students and employees are not on the premises.

THE DIFFERENCE   

Prior to 2020 there was no face mask, now there is. 

This is not the first time since Covid struck that people have streamed out on to the streets. 

What we are seeing now is very similar to what we saw late last year, when cases began to drop after the first wave. 

But back then no one was vaccinated. Now over 75% have got at least one dose. 

FIRST WAVE 

Let's rewind and see how Covid cases rose and fell in India.

In the first wave, India recorded the highest number of new daily cases on September 17 last year. That was 97,570.

Around six months later, it dipped to the lowest of 8,635 on February 2 this year. 

Then it began to climb steadily.

SECOND WAVE

Soon we realised that we were in the midst of the 2nd wave triggered by a new variant of the virus found first in India and which was later named Delta. 

The 100,000 new daily cases mark was crossed on April 7.

A week later, the 200,000 mark was crossed on April 15.

Another week later, the 300,000 mark was crossed on April 22.

About a week later, the 400,000 mark was crossed on May 1. 

On May 7, the number peaked at 414,188 new cases.

Today, it's about six months since that day, and the figure is 14,306 new cases. That's a sharp fall in a little over five months.

The numbers are expected to drop further. 

Though alongside, there is a fear that cases would rise because the crowds are back, most health experts say the spread of the infection would not be as severe as before. 

EVERYONE'S GETTING JABBED  

The hope -- that we might not see those horrendous days of March-April-May again -- is riding on the breakneck pace at which people are being vaccinated.

In India, there are three vaccines, and seven vaccine manufacturers. 

About 80% of the vaccines are Covishield, developed by AstraZeneca and manufactured by Serum Institute of India, which incidentally is the world's largest vaccine manufacturer going by the number of doses produced and sold globally which is more than 1.5 billion doses.

The second one is Covaxin that has been indigenously developed, by Bharat Biotech.

The third vaccine is Russia's Sputnik V which is being supplied in India by two companies Dr. Reddy’s Lab and Panacea Biotec.

Other than these four companies, there are three more who are in various stages of developing a vaccine.

One is Zydus Cadila. They have got the drug regulator’s approval for conducting the 3rd phase trial of their two-dose vaccine called ZyCoV-D.

Biological E Ltd is developing a vaccine called Corbevax, and Gennova Biopharmaceutical are conducting trials of its vaccine. 

Besides the three vaccines, the government has given approval for emergency use to two American vaccines, that of Moderna and Johnson & Johnson.

ONE-BILLION DOSES IN 278 DAYS 

On October 21, India recorded a statistical achievement of having administered one billion doses. This figure was achieved in 278 days. 

India rolled out its vaccination programme on January 16 this year. Though this averages out to around million doses a day, currently the pace is much faster, over 5 million doses a day. 

Out of the around 940 million adult population in India, 75% have got at least one dose, and 30% are fully vaccinated.

HIGH HOPES 

The Prime Minister Narendra Modi is hoping that by the end of the year, the entire adult population would be fully vaccinated. That's quite an ambitious target. Many think it's impossible.

But others feel it's not impossible, may be we might overshoot the deadline by a few months. 

The cause for optimism is the fact that the two manufacturers Serum Institute and Bharat Biotech have scaled up production considerably, and we will have more vaccines available soon.

WHY THERE IS NO VACCINE HESITANCY

What is really driving the high pace is the willingness of people to get themselves vaccinated. There is very minimal vaccine hesitancy in India. 

If at all people aren't getting vaccinated, it's because of laziness and lethargy rather than any ideology or beliefs.

So, if India is now really turning a corner, a lot of credit has to go to the average Indian as well, besides of course the healthcare professionals.

I can see two reasons why India is doing very well on the vaccine front. One, we have a very robust immunization programme. 

Every child is mandatorily vaccinated at regular intervals against a host of diseases, like tuberculosis, diphtheria, whooping cough, tetanus, measles, mumps, rubella (German measles) etc.

So, vaccination is nothing new for an Indian. 

The second reason could be that all are desperate to get back to their normal routine. If vaccination is what it takes, "we are all ready!" 

Fully vaccinated

Image source: Pixabay

I am now fully vaccinated. I got the second dose of Covishield yesterday. 

That's the very popular Indian version of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine manufactured here by Serum Institute of India, the world's largest manufacturer of vaccines.

I took the first dose on April 9.

Earlier, the gap between the two shots of Covishield was smaller, I think between 28 and 45 days. Later, in the face of a massive shortage of vaccines, the government widened the gap to 84 days.

The other popular vaccine in India is Covaxin, a completely Indian product manufactured by Bharat Biotech. The gap for this continues to be a minimum of 30 days.

AT APARTMENT COMPLEX

I took the jab at a vaccination camp held in our apartment complex. A remarkably smooth process.

All that we had to do was carry our personal identity document and the code that was generated when we registered for vaccination on the government portal CoWin. 

The hospital personnel at the site upload the particulars to the portal and soon after the vaccination, we get a message from the government's Health Ministry stating that we have govt vaccinated. From the portal, we can also download a certificate.

Incidentally, the Indian government is holding a global conclave later today on leveraging technology in vaccination management.

ADDITIONAL COST

Many resident welfare organisations and private companies are taking such initiatives in partnership with private hospitals, which is a good move, considering that it increases the number of people who are inoculated.

The cost is a little higher though. I paid ₹1,100, while for the first one at a private hospital, I paid ₹750. 

The extra cost, over and above the government-stipulated price, is presumably for the favour of coming over to our residential complex, something that everyone would appreciate since it's risky to go to a hospital in these times. 

Some private hospitals agree to send vaccinators to even residences, but again at an extra cost.

The government on June 8, issued an order capping the maximum price for Covishield at ₹780, for Covaxin at ₹1,410 and for Sputnik V at ₹1,145.

The vaccination is free of cost at government hospitals and public health centres. The local corporation is not quite enthusiastic about coming over to residential premises.

ROLE OF PRIVATE HOSPITALS

I think for a large country like India, it's perfectly okay for the private sector to be given some leeway to manage such massive operations. So that the government resources and money can be channelled to the people who can't afford the cost. After all, nothing comes for free.

A positive outcome of the active involvement of the private sector is that a large number of people, who can afford to pay the cost, do get vaccinated, and thereby slowing down the spread of the coronavirus.

Pandemic facts and emotions

Everyone is trying to distract themselves. So I didn't want to do a post on this. But then the dominating theme has been -- for now almost one and a half years -- what else!

There have been numerous calls and messages asking us how we are doing. So far so good. Thanks. 

Well, as you might know, things aren't looking good in India. 

Here are some figures drawn from Worldometer, an independent research group based in the US. Figures are as of 1310 IST today.

India reported the maximum number of new cases in the world yesterday -- 355,828; followed by the US -- 39,767; Brazil -- 36,524; Turkey -- 24,73 and Iran -- 20,732. India is way ahead, and that says it all, why we are currently in the spotlight.

As of yesterday, the US had the most number of active cases at 6.7 million and India was the next with 3.4 million. Brazil, France and Iran followed. 

The fact that India is the second-most populous nation in the world with 1.39 billion people, after China with 1.43 billion, and ahead of the US with 332 thousand, gives a different perspective to the numbers.

In India, there are 14,573 people in one million who are infected in comparison to the global figure of 19,779. Slovenia has 116,336, the US 99,903, Sweden 95,903, and France 86,490.

WHY INDIA IS IN THIS STATE NOW

Before that, we must remember that every nation has suffered in the same way sometime over the past one and a half years. The only difference is the way governments have reacted at various stages.

Every nation has also gone through subsequent phases of the infection after its first encounter.

India registered its first case on Jan 29 last year. Daily fresh cases touched a peak of 97,570 on September 12, and it dipped to its lowest of 9,110 on February 9. (Source NDTV)

Like everywhere else in the world, here too people were waiting to clutch that thin straw of hope. And when it came within their reach, they did; in fact, they rushed into it, with a huge sigh of relief.

People rushed out to resume their "old normal" lives. Politicians declared victory. Everyone thought the worst was over and looked forward to the massive rollout of vaccination.

Except for one group of people. That was the scientists, doctors, epidemiologists, virologists etc. They warned of a possible second wave. They pointed to the variants that had surfaced in the UK, South Africa, Brazil etc., in addition to mutations happening within the country itself. 

They warned the people, and the state and central governments not to let the guard down. 

But to no avail.

People, with and without masks, began crowding public places. Cinemas allowed full occupancy. Buses and most of the train services resumed.

Campaigning for State assembly elections in five states and one Union territory went on as if nothing had happened in the world.

So we are back to square one, in a really bad state, battered and bruised.

STRANGE GOVERNMENT LETHARGY

We all knew India's medical/infrastructure won't be able to cope if there is a massive explosion of cases. That precisely was the reason why the Prime Minister ordered a national lockdown last year. 

National lockdown did hurt the economy and people's lives. So that's next to the last option now.

But there were many alternatives -- like local/ district/ regional lockdowns depending on the number of cases. 

And, everyone missed the point about the supply chain of medical oxygen to hospitals. That's at the crux of the oxygen crisis, mainly in Delhi, but in other states as well.

But for some strange reason, the sense of seriousness or urgency, which was evident last year, is sadly this year.

EMOTIONAL DRAIN

Most of the families in India are grieving because someone they know -- a blood relation, a friend or an acquaintance -- has left too soon or is in a hospital.

Last year, when there was a national lockdown, without any warning, the abiding images were of migrant workers left in the lurch, of them walking all the way to their homes.

This year, when there is no lockdown, the abiding images are of long queues of ambulances and mass cremations and burials.

There have been criticisms of the media showing these images. But then that's the reality.

All the news media are full of distressing information. Most people are not following the blow-by-blow account of the deteriorating situation. 

Bengaluru, where I am, is in the midst of a two-week lockdown. The situation is bad but the medical infrastructure is holding up somehow. The lockdown will end on May 12, if there is an improvement in the situation.

I hope we have learned lessons from the mistakes, and the government and the people will not let their guard down, at the slightest sign of improvement in the situation.

My first dose of Covishield

In India, the vaccination window for people above 45 years of age without comorbidities opened on April 1. I got my first dose on Friday.

There is a remarkably efficient process of registration at a specially created web portal -- CoWIN -- for what the India government says is the world's largest vaccination drive. On entering the postal code, one can choose the vaccination centre from the options available at the locality and the time slot.

Those who don't want to go through the online process can just walk into a vaccine centre (who will do the registration on behalf of them) and get a time slot allotted.

VACCINATION CENTRE TO CLOSE

I chose the nearby superspecility hospital just because of the proximity factor. It's less than 10 minutes walking distance from my home. 

I reached at the scheduled time of 12 noon. They checked my credentials and told me something that I didn't expect. They are closing the vaccination facility at the hospital. 

I asked them why. It's because they are getting too many Covid patients now and they think it's risky to have perfectly healthy people walking into a place like that to get themselves inoculated. 

(By the way, the 2nd wave has hit India very badly, and aided by assembly elections in five states, and in the absence of any lockdown or curfew, the cases are spiralling out of control.)

The hospital's decision sounds logical in one way, but I haven't heard of any advisory saying Covid hospitals shouldn't run vaccination centres. So, I think there could be some other reason too behind the decision. There are many big hospitals that are treating Covid patients and also running a vaccination facility.

THE TWO AVAILABLE VACCINES

I was informed that I would be injected the Covishield vaccine. That's the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine made by the Serum Institute of India. 

There is one other vaccine available in India. That's an indigenous one, Covaxin, made by Bharat Biotech in collaboration with the Indian Council of Medical Research and the National Institute of Virology. 

Johnson and Johnson will shortly start clinical trial of their single-dose vaccine.

I was told that when I take the next dose between 28 days and 60 days from that day, I must ensure that it's Covishield itself.

IT'S OVER?

I then walked into the vaccination room. The nurse informed me just before pricking. Then, I could see her keep a swab of cotton on the spot for a minute or two. And then she stepped back and said it's done. But felt nothing!

She informed me about the possible reactions, and told me to take any paracetamol tablet (Crocin and Dolo are the most common in India) just in case I get a fever. She told me that I could feel a sort of heaviness on the left arm where I took the jab.

THE CHILL AND TIREDNESS

Till about 9 pm I was okay. Then I felt a bit chilly so much so that I had to switch off the fan. The weather is actually warm now. I took my temperature. It read 99. That's just on the edge of the normal range. No wonder I was feeling cold.

I didn't get good sleep that night. The next day, yesterday, I was feeling very tired, and had a headache-like heaviness in the head. In the morning, I had to repeatedly lie down. But I didn't take any tablet.

After a sleep in the afternoon, the heaviness in the head was gone, but still I wasn't feeling fully okay. Today, I am back to my normal self, except for a slight pain in the area when I lift my arm.

I have got a message on my mobile phone from the government that I have been "partially vaccinated". I also downloaded a digital certificate from the CoWIN website.

I must make sure I don't forget the 2nd dose. Quite possibly, I would get reminders from the Government of India.

Science ignored: governments mismanaging pandemic

Date: Sept 17; 2020; Fresh cases: 97,894.

That was the peak during the first wave in India. Since then, the numbers had been coming down. 

It came down to as low as 9,121 fresh cases on February 16. Everyone was too optimistic, rather than being careful.

That re-started the ascend. Back to 2020. But more severe.

Today, India crossed the 100-thousand mark, for the first time -- 103,558.

One of the states - Maharashtra, of which India's financial hub Mumbai is the capital - has more than 50% of the cases.

STILL NO DAY-TIME LOCKDOWN

What's more disconcerting is that this time around, there is no day-time lockdown in any part of the country. What is the point in imposing lockdown in the evening or night when anyway most people are at home? 

Also, there is no strict enforcement of the regulations the government has announced - like ensuring social distancing at public places. 

I remember during the first wave, state government health officials patrolled the streets and ensured that businesses adhered to restrictions. Nothing of that sort now.

SCIENCE TAKES A BACK SEAT

During the first round, last year, science seemed to dictate the course of government actions. Now, during the second wave, it's business and political considerations.

Not that economy should be ignored. But there are better ways of treading a careful middle path so that both business and health can be taken care of. 

Sadly, the way the pandemic is being managed now doesn't bode well.

REFERENCE:

COVID-19 tracker - NDTV

Why one should get vaccinated against COVID-19

I am sharing below an explanatory video put out by Vox, an American news website, on a few issues associated with the vaccines that are available against COVID-19.

I saw this video in a post of my blog pal, Yamini MacLean.

This video tells us:

1) What is the meaning of a vaccine's efficacy rate; like when we say, for example, "This vaccine has an efficacy of 95%"; 

2) Why we shouldn't compare different brands of vaccines; and

3) What is the ultimate objective of the global vaccination programme.

A video worth watching and sharing with others, because there is so much misinformation surrounding various COVID-19 vaccines.

No checking, monitoring of travellers by road to Kerala

In about three weeks, it will be one year since India reported its first COVID-19 case. That was on January 30, 2020 - a student of Wuhan University who returned to Kerala tested positive. 

Unlike many other countries, in India, the rise and the drop in the number of positive cases per day has been gradual. The peak was on September 17, when the country saw as many as 97,894 people testing positive. Yesterday, it was 18,222. The following is a screenshot from the NDTV website.

There have been 150,570 deaths out of 1,041,4417 positive cases. That is 1.45%. Worldwide, it's 1,919,357 deaths out of 89,209,954 positive cases - 2.15%

The following table gives the comparative figures. It's a Google News compilation by collating data from Wikipedia, The New York Times and JHU.

India is one country in the top bracket that has been showing a consistent decline over the past two months. (Probably, Italy too, to some extent.) I don't know whether that has anything to do with the very different sort of lockdown we had. It lasted in varying degrees of toughness for as long as eight months.

The strictest phase was the initial one - from March 25 to June 7, 2020. After that, there was a series of, what was called, 'unlocks', that lasted till November 30.

TRIP TO KERALA 

I, along with my wife, her brother, mother and niece, reached her home town on Friday evening around 7 pm. We drove down. We began our journey from Bengaluru in the morning around 5.

Prior to that, we registered our particulars on the designated government websites of Tamil Nadu (the state through which we transited) and of Kerala (our destination state). 

However, nowhere en route -- neither at Attibele (the point of entry to Tamil Nadu) nor at Walayar (the point of entry to Kerala) -- were we stopped to have our credentials as interstate travellers checked. Many of my friends who travelled by road to Kerala in the past one month, had the same experience.

This was not the case a few months ago. There was strict monitoring at these border check-posts. Travellers were continuously monitored by local area civic officials. My friends, who had travelled earlier, used to tell me how they kept receiving calls from health department officials, police officials and government doctors; and told about the need to stay at home, and to watch out for symptoms.

Now, the only travellers who are checked are the ones who come via flights. At the arriving airport they need to declare their travel and contact details, and are told to be in quarantine for seven days.

In compliance with the State government regulations, we are in quarantine for a week.

I am not sure why there has been such a relaxation. One reason could be that the situation in Kerala has been improving, though very slowly, after it hit a peak in October. 

The second reason could be that people have gotten used to the new lifestyle that is dictated by the safety guidelines. 

The third reason could be that people who come to Kerala by road are mostly from the two neighbouring states of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, where the cases have dropped significantly. So the probability of them carrying the virus could be less.

NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS

The state is still seeing quite a high number of fresh cases daily. It's averaging around 5,000. It peaked in October when it was around 7,000 to 8,000.

When we look at the spread of this disease, it's quite difficult to see a pattern across regions. There are a number of variables that are influencing the rate of infection.

And now to make matters worse, we have seen a more virulent form of the virus wreaking havoc, especially in the UK. Some of my doctor friends have been telling me they don't know if the virus that's circulating in India itself can mutate in the coming months.

Even if the situation is getting better, it would be prudent to be cautious.

Declining coronavirus numbers

The last five months of a year is a time of religious festivities in India. The globally well-known Diwali (known as Deepavali in the South) is arguably the high point. It was on Saturday. Now we have Christmas and New Year coming up.

The fear has been that the coronavirus cases will peak with the progress of the season that began in August. Usually, during this time, large crowds of people throng places of worship; friends and relatives call on one and another, or go out on vacation. 

This time, the festivities have been somewhat muted, though people are out in the markets in large numbers. As of now, contrary to fears, the numbers nationally have been on the decline over the past one and a half months. After hitting the all-time peak of 97,894 on September 16, it was 30,548 yesterday. Hope the trend continues.

COVID-19 is closer home

(This post has multiple updates at the end)

One of the residents of our apartment complex tested positive for coronavirus, or SARS-CoV-2 as it is officially called, on the 22nd.

He has been running fever 100.22 F / 37.9 C since the 19th, and to be on the safe side, he got a test done at one of the well-known private hospitals. 

Normally, at a government facility, a test is done only if there are symptoms, and if the fever is above 100 F / 37.7 C. The doctor confirmed COVID-19, and he advised home quarantine. But some private hospitals do let you take the test even if the fever is below 100 F. 

(Last month, a friend of mine -- who had severe throat pain and had a fever of 99.7 F/ 37.6 C -- was told he needn't get himself tested for the virus. (A test won't be done without a doctor's prescription.) He recovered after 10 days but thinks he had COVID-19.)

SAFETY PRECAUTIONS

In the evening, civic officials visited our apartment block, recorded the contact numbers of people he had come in contact with, and sprayed disinfectants all over the place, including on the doors of each apartment, lifts etc. 

They were happy with the safety precautions our resident association has taken. We have to compulsorily wear masks outdoors. Maids have to wear face-covering even while working in different houses. All home delivery items are left at a designated spot near the gate, and we have to go and pick them up. Anyone from outside is allowed in only if s/he is wearing a mask and only after being checked for high temperature.

We have emergency medical equipment on hand, just in case a need arises. We also have nearby a healthcare facility. They have offered their services to anyone in the apartment who might need basic medical intervention.

AREA ISOLATED

The immediate vicinity around the flat of the patient has been kind of sealed, with movement in those areas restricted. The rule is that an area around 100 meters around the infected person's house is cordoned off.

Yesterday morning, he put out a message in our WhatsApp group informing all of us that his fever has reduced and that he is generally getting well. That message was quite reassuring and calming.

Even though in our complex, the restriction is only on that particular floor where the patient stays, all of us are careful and we are not venturing out needlessly. Children usually come out to play in the foreground, but they are now conspicuous by their absence.

COMMUNITY TRANSMISSION

According to the patient, he could have got it when he visited a supermarket. It's well-known that most of the big cities have entered the community transmission stage, but that is something most governments, not just in India, but around the world, are hesitant to accept. 

There is only one exception, I can think of: the government of Kerala state, which not only acknowledged that it's community transmission but is also giving out every day the number of people who have been infected via that route. 

It's important that community transmission is acknowledged officially since that will flag the seriousness of the current situation and thereby prod people into being a lot more careful than they are now.

SITUATION IN INDIA AND BENGALURU

The number of positive cases has been steadily going up every day. But the brighter side is that the number of recoveries has also been on the rise. Yesterday over 49,000 were confirmed positive across the country. 

India population: 1.35 billion

Active cases now: 440,135

Total recovered: 817,209

Total deaths: 30,601

Total number of infections: 1.2 million 

(As of July 23)

The graphs on the NDTV website gives a good indication of the trajectory, nationally and state-wise.

The numbers in Bengaluru also has been on the rise. Yesterday, there were 2,207 positive cases.

Bengaluru population: 8.4 million

Active cases now: 29,090

Total recovered: 9,326

Total deaths: 784

Total number of infections: 39,200 

(As of July 23)

The local civic administration, BBMP, has a reasonably good website giving not only regular updates but also detailed graphics on how the city has been faring ever since the first case was detected on March 8.

The BBMP dashboard and the BBMP daily bulletins  

We just need to be patient and calm to see this through.

I hope you, and all your near and dear too, are safe. 

Take care.

------------

Update on Sunday, July 26

We now have a second case in the apartment complex. 

This person had a minor cold on Tuesday. He woke up on Wednesday with a fever. On Thursday, he booked a test at a nearby private hospital for Friday morning. But when he went for the test, the temperature had come down considerably. Late that night, the results came as positive. He is already on road to recovery.

He is someone who hasn't gone out of the apartment complex in the last two weeks. The only route of infection, he suspects, could be an e-commerce parcel that he had received from the delivery boy.

Update on Wednesday, July 28

The wife and daughter of the second patient have also tested positive. Their condition also is mild.

The Resident Association has revised rules for package delivery protocol since there is a strong suspicion that the parcels could be a source of infection. Now, all packets except food items will be sprayed with a disinfectant and kept at the security gate for a couple of hours. After that, the addressee will be informed, and s/he can come and pick it up.   

What I am waiting for ...

Image credit: Pixabay

Today is Day 62 of the lockdown, which came into force on March 25, and is in its fourth iteration with fewer restrictions and more relaxations.

  

Many rules on reopening of businesses, travel, quarantine etc have been eased; and the buzz is slowly coming back to this city.

Inter-state bus services haven't started, but they will soon. Trains have begun running. From today, domestic flights have resumed. 

With people moving from one city to another, what many feared is happening - the number of cases is increasing. Almost every other day, it's a record high.

Multiple models and numerous researchers have been saying India's peak is still a few weeks, if not a few months, away. Which means, the chances of getting infected haven't reduced, they have actually increased.

I AM RISK AVERSE

I don't do anything that is perilous. However, there are a number of risks in my daily life. It may be minimal, but there is a risk when I take a flight, when I drive a car or when I travel by train.

Am I not living in the midst of so many viruses and bacteria? Is the air I breathe so free of pathogens that I could catch no infection?

As far as the virus is concerned, I am trying my best to be one up on it by taking as many precautions as possible.

Nevertheless, I am psychologically prepared for the day when I might test positive when the new normal gives way to the old normal. I am being more realistic than pessimistic here.

I HAVE ADDED ONE MORE RISK TO MY LIFE

Image credit: Pixabay

According to NJ.com, a top New Jersey health official said everyone would get the disease. 

In an article in the world-renowned medical journal, The Lancet, Johan Giesecke, Sweden's former chief epidemiologist and current health advisor to the World Health Organization, says: 

"Everyone will be exposed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and most people will become infected. ... This is the real pandemic, but it goes on beneath the surface ... There is very little we can do to prevent this spread: a lockdown might delay severe cases for a while, but once restrictions are eased, cases will reappear. ..."

But unlike other infections, I am (probably, more) worried about others;.the hardship they would have to undergo.

No, this is not going to be like any other cold, cough or fever. There are wide-ranging social implications too. It's going to ring alarm bells in so many people around me. 

I WILL HAVE TO ANSWER A FEW QUESTIONS

Where all did you go? 

Were you wearing a mask always? 

Who all did you meet? 

How close were you to them? 

Did you shake hands with anyone? 

Do you remember someone sneezing or coughing?

Do you remember who they were, where you met them?

THERE COULD BE A FEW REBUKES AS WELL

I told you not to go out ... What was the need? ... You could have waited for some more days ...

All are waiting for the vaccine. Even when a vaccine is invented, it doesn't mean from the very next day the world has been rid of the virus.

WE ARE NOWHERE NEAR THE END 

Image credit: Pixabay

It's going to be a long wait - for the day when, for most of us, today's risk is no longer considered a risk.

I am waiting for the day when a cough or a cold doesn't alarm people.

I am waiting for the day when COVID-19 is seen on a par with many other diseases like flu, dengue, chikungunya, chickenpox, malaria, etc.   

I am waiting for the day when people would have learnt not to be scared but cautious. 

I am waiting for the day when the stigma attached to the disease vanishes.

A POSSIBLE CONVERSATION ONE DAY

"O, you have a fever? Got yourself tested?"

"Yup! I have COVID-19!"

"O! So you will be indoors for ... what ... one month?"

"Ya. Okay, see you then online."

"Sure. ... Take care."

Mask shaming

About a month ago, I was at a nearby grocery store. That was a time when face mask had not been made mandatory by the state government, and very few people wore one.

Inside the store, there were just three people at that time, including me. Only one person had a mask on. 

Looking at the other person who didn't have a mask, the storekeeper told him to wear one. "If you don't have a mask now, at least put a handkerchief around your nose and mouth. Don't come to this store if you can't wear a mask."

He didn't stop there. "There are some people who think it's below their social status to wear a mask," he muttered to himself.

Before he could turn to me, I quickly pulled out a handkerchief and tied it around my nose and mouth.

That storekeeper was rude. There was no need to speak like that, even though he is well within rights to have rules for customers in his store.

He might believe in the benefits of wearing a mask, but there is a way to convey it. 

His comment on that gentleman's "social status" was unwarranted, and it could have sparked off an argument between the storekeeper and the customer, who merely chose to ignore the remark and calmly took out a handkerchief and tied it around his face.

NOW MASK IS COMPULSORY

On April 15, the Union government made wearing mask compulsory in public places (The Hindu BusinessLine). However, many state governments issued rules for their regions much later. For example, in Karnataka, the wearing of the mask was made mandatory only on May 1 (The Economic Times).

In Bengaluru, failure to wear a mask attracted a fine of Rs 1,000. It was later reduced to Rs 200. The municipal corporation collected over Rs 2 lakh by way of fine, till a week ago (The Hindu). The figure must have gone up by now.

Following the government order, our residents' association mandated that we wear one even if when we are within the complex but outside our flat. So, now whether it makes sense or not, I wear a mask the moment I step out of my house. 

DOES IT HELP?

There have been many studies on whether a mask is beneficial or not. But none of them have conclusively proven one way or the other.

A mask does protect the wearer and people who are nearby, and in some situations, it's better to have the mask than not have.

But the problem lies elsewhere. Many people overlook the fact that the mask does not provide foolproof protection. 

The covering itself will have viruses, and when one unwittingly touches the mask to adjust it or to remove it, the pathogens get transferred to the fingers, an aspect that the wearer is unlikely to realise since the mask gives him/her a sense of (false) security and protection.

BBC's latest weekly Health Check programme featured the topic "Should we wear face masks?" In it, Prof Robert West of University College of London, who conducted a review of more than 20 studies on this subject, said, "The evidence is equivocal". Listen to this very informative programme here.

MASK SHAMING

With opinions split on the issue, there is a disgusting new social phenomenon: mask shaming. That's when a person who wears a mask ridicules and shames another person who is not wearing one; or vice versa. What my neighbourhood grocery storekeeper said to the customer was a typical example of mask shaming. 

NBC recently reported a case of what an Oakland resident experienced while she was on a morning walk. “It happened to me the other day... I went for a walk in the morning and someone came up to me and said 'put on a mask!' I felt bad.”

This letter writer in The Columbus Dispatch says, "Unfortunately, people are now being conditioned to shame anyone who doesn’t wear one. In fact, some have gone as far (sic) to suggest you are a murderer for not wearing a mask. This is absurd." 

On another discussion page in Reddit, one person speaks of how it's normal for people in countries like Hong Kong and Taiwan to wear a mask when they are not well.

One post on that page says, " "A person who wears a mask isn’t admitting that they are sick or paranoid: They’re acknowledging that they are aware of their civic duty regarding public health." We need to listen to our Asian friends and stop mask-shaming in western countries."

Well, wearing masks is not a common practice in all Asian countries, definitely not in India.

Mask shaming is occurring in the reverse direction as well. People who don't wear one are making fun of those who are wearing one.

Here is a post in Reddit, "Today, I wore a (sic) N95 mask in a Costco in Toronto, Canada and overhead head (sic) some random person said (sic), "Wearing a mask makes him look like a Monkey." I got pissed because it was my first time wearing a mask in public. I DGAF anymore. At least I have a mask on and doing my part not to catch or spread the virus. North Americans need to stop Mask Shaming!"

Probably the term 'mask shaming' is being used in Western nations, especially in the US, but I guess, the practice is prevalent all over the world, especially since the scientific opinion on the issue is split.

TAKE PRECAUTION, DON'T SHAME ANYONE

Whether wearing a mask is compulsory or not, there is no justification to scoff at someone.

When you see someone wearing a mask or not, don't outrightly judge him/her. There could be a reason for wearing one, there could be a reason for not wearing one. 

If the law mandates that you need to wear one, do so.

But if there is no rule, do what you feel is right, and leave the issue to the other person's wisdom.

Remember, a mask doesn't give you foolproof protection. It's helpful in some situations, but it needs to be worn and handled in a particular way, for you to be actually safe.

Take care.

Lockdown relaxed, but no one is in a hurry to get back to old ways

Though India has extended the lockdown till May 18 (it began on March 25), there is considerable relaxation in areas which have seen no, or very low cases, designated as green and orange zones.

In fact, 90% of Bengaluru should be limping back to normality from today with many commercial establishments opening.

My house falls in a ward that has seen no positive cases, but my district is in the red zone since a few other wards in the district have seen a high number of cases.

Since my ward is in the green zone, many people will try to get back to their normal routine in my locality from today. I can already hear the sound of quite a few vehicles plying.

Following the latest government order, our apartment association took a decision a couple of days ago to allow in domestic helps but with strict controls and monitoring. But the fact is everyone is hesitating to make the first move and ask them to come back.

No one wants to change the new status quo if they have an option not to.

In fact, we initially thought we would ask our maid to come, but later we changed our mind. That is because there is no necessity -- we are managing with cooking and cleaning, and the maid (who has been with us for nearly 15 years) is being paid her usually salary though she hasn't been working.

Also, we thought let us see how the situation pans out, now that from today many people who have no option would begin to move around and get back to work.

The rule of thumb is don't be in a hurry to go back to the old ways; wait, watch, and restore normality in a phased manner.

Inspiring story of Minal Dakhave Bhosale

We have to appreciate the highly proactive efforts being taken by the Indian and State governments, in the global fight against COVID-19. Something which I don't see acknowledged well enough either in India or abroad.

For example, all flight passengers from abroad are being subjected to thermal screening at the airport right from mid-January, even before the first case was identified in India, on January 30.

Teams of government officials are tirelessly working to trace the contacts of suspected patients, get them to self-quarantine, as well as make follow-up enquiries about their well-being.

NEED FOR TESTING KITS

However, one of the key elements of the battle is how well we are able to test people. And, India doesn't have enough testing kits.

In the last few days, we have very good news on this front -- a company in the west Indian city of Pune, called Mylab Discovery, has developed a kit, Patho Detect, that is not only cheaper but can also test samples faster.

The Mylab kit costs Rs 1,200 while the imported one costs Rs 4,500. It can provide the results in two and a half hours, while an imported one takes six to seven hours, says this BBC report.

THE HEROINE

The leader of the team that worked on the kit is virologist Minal Dakhave Bhosale, Mylab's research and development chief.

What makes her a heroine is not just that her team was able to come up with an indigenous testing kit but the fact that she was in the final stages of a complicated pregnancy.

In spite of her personal difficulties, she took the scientific challenge head-on and submitted the kit to the National Institute of Virology on March 18. The next day she gave birth to a baby girl.

The company, the report says, can supply up to 100,000 testing kits a week and can produce up to 200,000, if needed.

What an inspiring story this is! Hearty felicitations to Ms Minal -- not just a role model for all of us, but also a beacon of hope in these troubled times.

(This blog post is part of the monthly 'We Are The World Blogfest' that celebrates positive news)

Janata Curfew: India's experiment with total national lockdown

A street in Bhopal, India.
Image credit: Wikipedia

India is quiet like never before.

I woke up this morning not to the sound of vehicles, but to the sound of the chirp of birds.

I have never before heard the rustling of leaves during the day hours when the predominant sound is usually of passing vehicles.

Today the entire nation -- a population of 1.33 billion -- is staying indoors between 7 am and 9 pm. No public transport. No passenger trains. Only trains that have begun the journey before 7 am are running. No buses. No metro. All businesses shut. It's a total lockdown. Only medical services, online delivery services and media are working.

This follows an appeal by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his address to the nation on March 20, to observe a Janata Curfew or People's Curfew - of the people, by the people, for the people - voluntarily stay indoors between 7 am and 9 pm. He said we have to do it because the crisis we are facing is a very unique one, and we have very difficult days ahead, for which we need to prepare ourselves.

THE FIVE-MINUTE JINGLE OR CLAP AT 5 PM  

The Prime Minister also exhorted everyone to come to their doorstep or to their balconies and clap or ring a bell or tap a steel utensil for five minutes in honour of every health and medical professional who is struggling out there taking care of the people who are ill.

Accordingly, in our apartment complex, many residents joined the rest of the nation, came out on to their balconies, and clapped.

HARD DAYS AHEAD

When the Prime Minister announced just a day's shutdown, the immediate thought that came to everyone's mind was how will a single day's lockdown help in any way. But he had prefaced it saying this lockdown today is to prepare ourselves for the hard days ahead.

That's what is happening now. A number of places in the country, including big cities like Bengaluru, Delhi and Mumbai, have now declared complete shutdown till March 31. Indian Railways today announced that no passenger train will run till 31st. Buses and metro have drastically curtailed their services.

I don't think we will return to our normal routine any time in the near future.

Take adequate care of yourself. Be safe. These are very uncertain times.

The unsung heros fighting coronavirus

It's now nearly three months since coronavirus began wreaking havoc around the world. Over a hundred thousand are now ill and more than six thousand have died because of COVID-19. The numbers are constantly rising.

It all started in Huanan Seafood Market, a wet market in the city of Wuhan in China in the last week of December. The virus spread rapidly from there within China and later outside. The fact that it was the Chinese New Year holiday season only made matters worse since many people were travelling. 

The symptoms are the all too familiar runny nose, cold, cough and fever. But two factors have made this a bit scary and kept it on the headlines around the world. One, the virus is new, and two, it has spread around the world like never before. 

TRACKING THE SPREAD

Though it started from a congested and arguably unhygienic wet market, as the disease spread to different nations, it became associated with people who were only rich enough to fly from one nation another. Top-level artistes, sportspersons, and people in high positions of power were infected. 

It has now moved to the secondary level of infection or local transmission stage, wherein people who haven't travelled anywhere are getting infected since they had come in contact with someone who carried the virus or they picked up the virus from some surface.

GUARDIANS WHO ARE ENSURING OUR SAFETY

The world is trying to contain the spread of the virus by different means. Lockdown of a city and 'social distancing' by people have now become the norm everywhere. 

While a good majority us are playing it safe by staying indoors, keeping track of news in the comforts of our homes, checking our social media feeds, forwarding messages to all and sundry on how to take care, there is a group of people who are taking all the risk only to ensure that the rest of world is safe. 

That is the community of healthcare workers, comprising doctors, nurses, paramedical personnel, healthcare officials, and a huge staff. 

They don't play it safe and keep themselves away from the infected and the sick. They have to be in the midst of the very people who are ill and who need assistance. They have to tend the elderly who are at a high risk of succumbing to the disease. 

COMMENDABLE JOB BY INDIA

India was one of the first countries to begin screening of incoming passengers at airports. It's being done at all international airports in the country. Yesterday, Kerala (which has a high number of positive cases) decided to screen even bus and train passengers coming into the state. 

I am happy that in India, everyone who is fighting this war is doing an admirable job. There are so many first-person accounts of people who have witnessed high levels of efficiency by people are engaged in combating the pandemic.

They are not just reacting to a situation but proactively working to ensure that people who might be carrying the virus are safely isolated so that they don't unwittingly spread the virus to other people. 

There are heartwarming stories of how airport/ airline officials and health workers are diligently tracking passengers who might have flown in an aircraft taken by a person who later tested positive. I also heard stories of how people have voluntarily isolated themselves even though they didn't show any symptoms of the disease. The social responsibility and dedication that these people have shown are admirable.

Several scientists and doctors are saying that the virus is not going to be exterminated from the face of the earth anytime soon, and people will continue to be at risk. But this highly praiseworthy proactive method of fighting the challenge will definitely mean the number of people who might get infected could be kept to a minimum saving hundreds of lives in India and the world at large.