Deep Dive
1. Token Unlock Sell Pressure (Bearish Impact)
Overview:
KAITO unlocked 8.35M tokens (3.15% of circulating supply) on Sep 20, 2025 – part of a recurring unlock schedule. Historical data shows an 11.5% price drop followed August’s 23.35M token unlock (CCN).
What this means:
New supply entering markets during weak sentiment creates imbalance. With 32.66% higher trading volume vs prior day, the unlock likely amplified selling from recipients liquidating positions.
What to watch:
Next unlock event timing and whether ecosystem incentives (staking, airdrops) can absorb excess supply.
2. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Momentum)
Overview:
Price broke below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($0.719) and 200-day SMA ($1.28). RSI (39.48) shows oversold conditions but no bullish divergence yet.
What this means:
Technical traders interpret breaks below key levels as bearish signals, triggering stop-loss orders. The MACD histogram (+0.0093) hints at slowing downward momentum, but price remains below all major moving averages.
Key level:
A sustained close above $0.719 (Fibonacci support-turned-resistance) could signal reversal potential.
3. Altcoin Liquidation Cascade (Market Impact)
Overview:
Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 20 (“Extreme Fear”), with Bitcoin dominance hitting 58.7% – capital rotated from alts to BTC.
What this means:
KAITO’s -11.4% drop outpaced the -7.3% total crypto market decline, reflecting its high beta (volatility) nature. Turnover ratio (10.8%) suggests relatively thin liquidity magnified losses during market-wide deleveraging.
Conclusion
KAITO’s decline stems from project-specific unlocks colliding with a risk-averse macro environment for altcoins. While oversold technicals hint at possible relief, sustained recovery likely requires either broader market stabilization or KAITO ecosystem catalysts (e.g., accelerated token burns, major partnerships).
Key watch: Whether BTC can hold $87k support – a break lower could extend KAITO’s losses toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level ($0.907).