Criora

Sudan

Region Africa Subregion Northern Africa Income Lower middle income ISO SDN

Sudan carries high governance pressure, led by flood exposure and hazard and exposure.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is Sudan, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
High
64 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    High
    61 / 100
  2. Nature
    Low
    38 / 100
    ▼ -0.3 5y
  3. Social
    Medium
    56 / 100
  4. Governance
    Critical
    86 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    High
    76 / 100
    ▲ + 2.9 5y
Climate futures

Sudan: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Sudan is projected to warm +3.6 °C, with annual rainfall changing +61 mm.

Temperature

+3.6 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+2.5 °C → +3.6 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+2.0 °C → +2.4 °C

Hottest month +3.5 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+61 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+50 mm → +61 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+33 mm → +41 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Sudan: under high emissions, severe coastal flooding could reach 1 of its largest cities.

Most exposed cities

PopulationFlood depth

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+0.23 m → +0.76 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+0.20 m → +0.53 m

Water stress

11%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
12% → 11%
Current path SSP3-7.0
11% → 13%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 10% today.

River flooding

1.8%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
1.5% → 1.8%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
0.6% → 1.1%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.9% today.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Sudan most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Critical
8.6 / 10
DRR capacity
High
7.9 / 10
Peers

Sudan in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Northern Africa
#6 of 6median 50
  1. 1TunisiaMedium 46
  2. 2MoroccoMedium 48
  3. 3AlgeriaMedium 49
  4. 4LibyaMedium 51
  5. 5EgyptMedium 55
  6. 6SudanHigh 64
region
Africa
#51 of 54median 53
  1. 45MozambiqueMedium 59
  2. 46MaliMedium 60
  3. 47NigeriaHigh 60
  4. 48NigerHigh 61
  5. 49Dem. Rep. CongoHigh 61
  6. 50S. SudanHigh 63
  7. 51SudanHigh 64
  8. 52Central African Rep.High 64
  9. 53ChadHigh 66
  10. 54SomaliaHigh 69
income group
Lower middle income
#50 of 53median 49
  1. 44CongoMedium 56
  2. 45HondurasMedium 57
  3. 46IndiaMedium 57
  4. 47Papua New GuineaMedium 58
  5. 48IraqMedium 59
  6. 49NigeriaHigh 60
  7. 50SudanHigh 64
  8. 51PakistanHigh 64
  9. 52SyriaHigh 65
  10. 53YemenHigh 66

Put two countries head to head

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Sudan?
Sudan carries high governance pressure, led by flood exposure and hazard and exposure. Its overall risk score is 64 out of 100 (high), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Sudan's risk?
Sudan's highest pressures are governance (86, critical) and adaptation (76). Its strongest area is nature (38).
How might Sudan's climate change by 2080?
Sudan's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 66 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Sudan warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Sudan is on track to warm by +3.6 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +61 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.4 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Sudan's coast?
Coastal sea level along Sudan is projected to rise by +0.76 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.53 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Sudan?
The share of Sudan under high water stress is projected to move from 10% today to 11% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Sudan?
The share of Sudan exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.9% today to 1.8% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Sudan's risk data last updated?
Updated June 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.