This work diagnoses the present salinity of the Riguel and Arba rivers (Spain) and predicts its expected evolution using geochemical models applied to the modernization of the actual Bardenas I and the completion of irrigation in the Bardenas II irrigation districts. The results show a progressive increase in salinity (from 0.39 to 2.21 dS/m electrical conductivity) in the Riguel-Arba system, due to the cumulative collection of irrigation return flows and its progression towards more saline facies. The Bardenas I modernization, involving an increase in irrigation efficiency from 50% to 90%, will decrease the volume and salinity of the Riguel River by 30%. In contrast, irrigation of the new 24000 ha Bardenas II land will increase the flow (12%) and salinity (21%) of the Arba River. Geochemical models may help in providing sensible estimates on the impact of irrigation on the salinity of the receiving water bodies.
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