My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.
::: spoiler preamble The last week has been quite a busy one for world energy markets. The first big piece was the reveal that the US is removing sanctions on Russian fuel exports until April 2027. This has been yet another fascinating collision of the Ukraine and Iran Wars, and, of course, another example of all the complicated situations that countries that are otherwise geopolitically aligned can get themselves into, as obviously Russia being allowed to export more diesel does bend the curve on shortages to a degree. China "helping" the West by reducing their demand for foreign oil purchases for much of this year as they drew from their enormous domestic oil reserves is another example of this kind of dynamic. Given how much Russia has helped Iran - especially now, with large increases of Caspian Sea vessels helping Iran mitigate some of the blockade's impact - I don't view this as a betrayal, but more of a unfortunately necessary geopolitical tactic, particularly if increased Russian state revenue lets them defeat the NATO-backed forces they're fighting a bit easier. Regardless, it would be very unfortunate if most of Russia's diesel went directly to the US and not to other struggling countries (not least among them, Cuba), as that would give the US a bit more road to kick the can down.
Ukraine has not taken this news well. It can be hard to figure out to what degree Trump is using kayfabe in any particular situation, but Ukraine immediately striking a Russian diesel export station (to which Russia retaliated by knocking out power throughout much of Kiev) seems to have genuinely annoyed him, e.g. saying that Ukraine should get a new leader. He also tried his classic move of willing a ceasefire into existence purely by social media decree. This worked during the Twelve Day War, but not here - at least not yet. I'm currently cautiously disregarding rumors that the US is going to actually take away intelligence or material support from Ukraine. It's not impossible, and would actually be another data point in the trend of the US withdrawing from Europe (with their bombers evacuating their UK base very recently too), but this antagonization of Russia has been a plot in the making for over a decade, and I would be surprised if Trump was allowed by the powers that be to interrupt this plan in any meaningful way. Perhaps there will be some largely symbolic move instead.
Over in West Asia, Ansarallah is tidying up their encirclement of Taiz, with the noose tightening around PLC forces. The Saudi counteroffensive was very Ukrainian; i.e. it existed mostly as a media phenomenon, but somehow even more half-hearted. Their sole territorial acquisition up to me writing this is 10-20 miles of largely empty coastal plains and an airstrip that Ansarallah, without an airforce, has no real use of. In return for Saudi bombing, Ansarallah has continued hitting oil infrastructure, and additionally escalated by striking terminals at King Khalid airport. Ansarallah gave several warnings to immediately evacuate everybody inside, and the Saudis did not even bother to sound the alarm of an incoming missile, which is emblematic of their desperation to maintain the illusion of the pre-war status quo. The strike on Terminal 3 killed about a dozen people and injured a few hundred. While Saudi airlines are trying to maintain operations, several Western airliners are pausing flights for now, which mirrors the air blockade that the Saudis have forced on Yemen for several years. Meanwhile, Iran has escalated strikes on tankers both inside the Strait of Hormuz and far outside it, as it truly starts to slam the hammer down on what limited illegal transits were making it through. This comes in the form of both missile/drone strikes and naval mines and will keep physical oil prices elevated well into the short and medium terms if maintained. Additionally, the US continues its reported buildup of forces for another try at striking Iran, possibly before the midterms, but I sincerely don't know what they could possibly hope to achieve beyond trying to get more votes from chest-thumping jingoistic morons while yet further degrading their position in the region militarily and economically.
Meanwhile, over in Southeast Asia, air pollution has dramatically increased over the past few months due to manmade wildfires in Indonesian forests and peatlands, which were caused by profit-seeking slash-and-burn farmers clearing land with fire, and then further exacerbated by one of the worst El Ninos on record. This bourgeois idiocy has caused untold environmental damage, hundreds of thousands of cases of respiratory illnesses throughout Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore, prolonged closures of major institutions like schools, and required the distribution of oxygen cylinders throughout parts of the populace to try and keep them alive and at least vaguely healthy.
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::: spoiler The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
:::
::: spoiler Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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IRGC claims another tanker hit early Monday morning
It looks like Russia attacked at least 5 power plants in and around Kiev last night.
(The Cradle) Saudi Arabia plans to raise pipeline oil export capacity to 10 million barrels per day
Saudi Arabia plans to expand its pipeline crude export capacity to as much as 10 million barrels per day by converting a domestic gas pipeline for oil shipments and investing in its existing East-West network, Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said at the World Petroleum Congress in Riyadh.
The kingdom could add 1.2 million barrels per day of export capacity within seven to eight weeks by temporarily converting the gas pipeline, with further investment potentially adding another 3 million barrels per day.
Abdulaziz said he had instructed state-owned Saudi Aramco to use the pipeline for crude transport until May, after which it must be cleaned and returned to gas service ahead of the summer season.
The plans follow the temporary closure of Saudi Arabia's 1,200-kilometre East-West oil pipeline in September after a drone attack. The route carries crude across the Arabian Peninsula and provides an alternative export corridor when shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted. (https://t.me/thecradlemedia/69270)
Meanwhile;
(The Cradle) Top energy CEOs pull out of Riyadh conference after Ansarallah airport strikes
Several of the world's top energy executives were removed from the schedule of the WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh following Ansarallah's strikes on the Saudi capital, Reuters reported on 12 October.
The chief executives of ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Shell, Chevron, and BP were all expected to attend but were no longer listed on the conference agenda.
BP cited travel disruptions, while Shell declined to comment and the other companies did not immediately respond.
The congress is being held around 10 kilometers from King Khalid International Airport, which has been targeted by the Yemeni Armed Forces at least four times in the past week.
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman insisted the kingdom remained safe despite acknowledging the attacks were serious and required an "equally serious" response.
The strikes have dealt another blow to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's Vision 2030, which seeks to transform Saudi Arabia into a global investment and tourism hub through major international events.
The congress, originally scheduled for April, had already been postponed following the US-Israeli war on Iran.
The latest Ansarallah attacks came after repeated warnings by Sanaa to avoid Saudi airports, with Saudi authorities choosing to keep air traffic operating. (https://t.me/thecradlemedia/69272)
(The Cradle) United Airlines, Air France adopt Israeli ban on pilots from Muslim nations: Report (https://thecradle.co/articles/united-airlines-air-france-adopt-israeli-ban-on-pilots-from-muslim-nations-report)
Israel and the UAE claim an Omani pilot attempted to hijack and crash a FlyDubai flight carrying 170 Israeli passengers to Tel Aviv
News about news:
MAGA Congress escalates against BT, threatens reporters and editorial staff
(MES) — 🇬🇧/🇮🇷 NEW: UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has officially accused the IRGC of being behind the RAF Fairford plot
The UK has summoned the Iranian ambassador to demand an apology. (https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/37665)
the one that released the terrorists on bail? what's their excuse for that?
Probably asking not to look at one hand while the other one is doing the magic trick
Mrs.Tropical Storm Rachel's storm surge is taking a wrecking ball to California coastal homes.Hopefully Simon is only attacking resorts in Mexico and leaving the locals alone. Riding along the coast with the eye staying over water seems like it would be a bad thing.
Press TV
Following the reported failure of US radar systems in Saudi Arabia, Riyadh is using an app to detect incoming attacks from Yemen and urging citizens to report any drones they spot.
for those bored by bird or tree identification apps
You would think such an approach would be vulnerable to sabatoge.
Need help identifying incoming drones and missiles? There’s an app for that!
How many citizens do you think oppose the regime that are just hitting this thing with false reports?
Someone tell Ansarallah to keep a few Saudi dtaacenters running so we can VPN in and help o7
Could I achieve the same with a VPN?
Quite possibly!
I'm sure people are so motivated to support a state that is one family's personal property
Iran would like to honor the Real Americans today.
First, death to USA and "Israel"
exhibit 326457 in "American military reindustrialization is a blatant corruption scheme" https://archive.ph/lQOig
from this article I learned that the phrase "elite, private-sector patriots" is, apparently, a real string of words uttered by Pete Hegseth, who is not Felix from Chapo in disguise, somehow
::: spoiler more
lol. lmao. no you can't see my girlfriend she
goes to another schoolis part of an experimental weapons development programmy patriotic calling is to funnel as much government money as possible into my personal coffers and into complete vaporware projects (I'm a patriot for China
)
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cont'd in response