Focusing illusion
The focusing illusion is a cognitive bias where individuals overestimate the impact of a specific factor on their overall happiness. This leads people to believe that changes such as a promotion, an increase in income, or moving to a more desirable location will significantly improve their well-being. However, this bias causes them to neglect the influence of other, equally important factors that contribute to happiness, such as social relationships or daily routines. The concept was introduced by Daniel Kahneman and David Schkade in their 1998 study, which found that individuals overestimated the effect of living in California on their life satisfaction compared to other states.[1]
Evidence
Several studies provide evidence for the focusing illusion across different life domains. One example comes from the work of Wilson and Gilbert, who demonstrated that people often overestimate the emotional impact of future events. For instance, students predicting their happiness after a football game consistently exaggerated the long-term effects of either winning or losing.[2]
In another experiment, Kahneman and colleagues tested how individuals predicted their well-being in various life circumstances, such as earning different levels of income. Their findings revealed that people generally overestimated how much their happiness would improve with higher income.[3] Moreover, studies on affective forecasting have repeatedly shown that people tend to overestimate both the intensity and duration of emotional reactions to future life events, such as achieving career goals or purchasing material goods.[4]
Explanations
The focusing illusion is an affective forecasting errors, where individuals misjudge the emotional impact of future events, often overestimating how long feelings of joy or disappointment will last.[5]
Robson and Samuelson proposed an evolutionary explanation for the focusing illusion.[6] They argue that it is a feature of human cognition designed to keep people motivated. By focusing on potential future rewards, individuals are driven to pursue their goals, even though they may eventually habituate to these rewards. The illusion that happiness will increase with success keeps individuals striving for improvement.[7]
References
- ^ Schkade DA, Kahneman D (1998). "Does living in California make people happy? A focusing illusion in judgments of life satisfaction". Psychological Science. 9 (5): 340–346. doi:10.1111/1467-9280.00066.
- ^ Wilson TD, Gilbert DT (2003). "Affective forecasting". Advances in Experimental Social Psychology. 35: 345–411.
- ^ Kahneman D, Krueger AB, Schkade D, Schwarz N, Stone AA (2006). "Would you be happier if you were richer? A focusing illusion". Science. 312 (5782): 1908–1910. doi:10.1126/science.1129688.
- ^ Gilbert DT, Pinel EC, Wilson TD, Blumberg SJ, Wheatley TP (1998). "Durability bias in affective forecasting". Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 75 (3): 617–638. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.75.3.617.
- ^ Wilson TD, Gilbert DT (2002). "Affective forecasting". In Gilovich T, Griffin D, Kahneman D (eds.). Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. pp. 345–370. ISBN 978-0-521-79679-8.
- ^ Robson A, Samuelson L (2011). "The evolution of decision and experienced utilities". Theoretical Economics. 6 (3): 311–339.
- ^ Page L (2024-08-28). "The focusing illusion: Why we overestimate the importance of our next success for our happiness". Optimally Irrational.