Public opinion on climate change: Difference between revisions
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===Ideology=== |
===Ideology=== |
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In the United States, ideology acts as an effective predictor of [[party identification]], where [[Conservatism in the United States|conservative]]s are more prevalent among [[Republican Party (United States)|Republicans]], and [[moderate]]s and [[Modern liberalism in the United States|liberal]]s among [[Independent (voter)|independent]]s and [[Democratic Party (United States)|Democrat]]s. A shift in ideology is often associated with in a shift in political views.<ref name="Saad2009ConservativeTopIdeologicalGroup">{{Cite web|url=http://www.gallup.com/poll/123854/Conservatives-Maintain-Edge-Top-Ideological-Group.aspx|title=Conservatives Maintain Edge as Top Ideological Group|first=Lydia|last=Saad|date=26 Jun 2009|publisher=Gallup|accessdate=22 Dec 2009}}</ref> For example, when the number of conservatives rose from 2008 to 2009, the number of individuals who viewed that Global warming is exaggerated in the media likewise rose.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.gallup.com/poll/116590/Increased-Number-Think-Global-Warming-Exaggerated.aspx|title=Increased Number Think Global Warming Is “Exaggerated”|first=Lydia|last=Saad|date=11 Apr 2009|publisher=Gallup|accessdate=22 Dec 2009}}</ref> |
In the United States, ideology acts as an effective predictor of [[party identification]], where [[Conservatism in the United States|conservative]]s are more prevalent among [[Republican Party (United States)|Republicans]], and [[moderate]]s and [[Modern liberalism in the United States|liberal]]s among [[Independent (voter)|independent]]s and [[Democratic Party (United States)|Democrat]]s. A shift in ideology is often associated with in a shift in political views.<ref name="Saad2009ConservativeTopIdeologicalGroup">{{Cite web|url=http://www.gallup.com/poll/123854/Conservatives-Maintain-Edge-Top-Ideological-Group.aspx|title=Conservatives Maintain Edge as Top Ideological Group|first=Lydia|last=Saad|date=26 Jun 2009|publisher=Gallup|accessdate=22 Dec 2009}}</ref> For example, when the number of conservatives rose from 2008 to 2009, the number of individuals who viewed that Global warming is exaggerated in the media likewise rose.<ref name="Saad2009GlobalWarmingExaggerated">{{Cite web|url=http://www.gallup.com/poll/116590/Increased-Number-Think-Global-Warming-Exaggerated.aspx|title=Increased Number Think Global Warming Is “Exaggerated”|first=Lydia|last=Saad|date=11 Apr 2009|publisher=Gallup|accessdate=22 Dec 2009}}</ref> |
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==Variation by issue== |
==Variation by issue== |
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===Science=== |
===Science=== |
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{{Seealso|Scientific opinion on climate change |
{{Seealso|Scientific opinion on climate change}} |
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Despite objections from [[List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming|individual scientists]], a [[scientific consensus]] exists recognized by national [[Academy of Sciences|academies of science]] and other authoritative bodies.<ref name="JointScienceAcademies2005" /> The conclusions are that there has been an increase global temperatures from the mid-twentieth century to the present, that the current change can largely be attributed to the release of greenhouse gases,<ref name="IPCCAR4WG1SPM" /> and that natural phenomena such as solar radiation and volcanism produced most of the warming from pre-industrial times to 1950 and had a small cooling effect afterward.<ref name="Hegerl2001" /><ref>{{Cite doi|10.1073/pnas.0605064103}}</ref> Studies such as surveys of climatologists and reviews of abstracts from scientific journals have found little controversy over these conclusions within the scientific community.<ref>{{Cite doi|10.1029/2009EO030002}}</ref><ref>{{Cite doi|10.1126/science.1103618}}</ref> |
Despite objections from [[List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming|individual scientists]], a [[scientific consensus]] exists recognized by national [[Academy of Sciences|academies of science]] and other authoritative bodies.<ref name="JointScienceAcademies2005" /> The conclusions are that there has been an increase global temperatures from the mid-twentieth century to the present, that the current change can largely be attributed to the release of greenhouse gases,<ref name="IPCCAR4WG1SPM" /> and that natural phenomena such as solar radiation and volcanism produced most of the warming from pre-industrial times to 1950 and had a small cooling effect afterward.<ref name="Hegerl2001" /><ref>{{Cite doi|10.1073/pnas.0605064103}}</ref> Studies such as surveys of climatologists and reviews of abstracts from scientific journals have found little controversy over these conclusions within the scientific community.<ref>{{Cite doi|10.1029/2009EO030002}}</ref><ref>{{Cite doi|10.1126/science.1103618}}</ref> |
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In the interest of "balance" the popular media in the U.S. gives disproportionate attention to skeptics relative to the scientific community as a whole, and the level of agreement within the scientific community has not been accurately communicated within the United States.<ref>{{Cite doi|10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.001}}</ref> This coverage differs from that presented in other countries, where press coverage is more consistent with the scientific literature.<ref>{{Cite doi|10.1108/01443330310790327}}</ref> Despite the difference, and while individuals themselves may hold a different opinion, over the past ten years there has been an increase in the proportion of Americans who believe that scientists agree that global warming is occurring, even across political lines where a gap remains.<ref name="Dunlap2008RepublicanDemocraticGap" /> |
In the interest of "balance" the popular media in the U.S. gives disproportionate attention to skeptics relative to the scientific community as a whole, and the level of agreement within the scientific community has not been accurately communicated within the United States.<ref>{{Cite doi|10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.001}}</ref> This coverage differs from that presented in other countries, where press coverage is more consistent with the scientific literature.<ref>{{Cite doi|10.1108/01443330310790327}}</ref> Despite the difference, and while individuals themselves may hold a different opinion, over the past ten years there has been an increase in the proportion of Americans who believe that scientists agree that global warming is occurring, even across political lines where a gap remains.<ref name="Dunlap2008RepublicanDemocraticGap" /> |
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Some journalist attribute the disproportionate coverage in the popular media to [[climate change denial]]ism to the business-centered organizations,<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.newsweek.com/id/32482|title=The Truth About Denial|first=Sharon|last=Begley|date=13 Aug 2007|publisher=Newsweek|archivedate=|accessdate=11 Jan 2009}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2006/sep/20/oilandpetrol.business|title=Royal Society tells Exxon: stop funding climate change denial|first=Adam|last=David|date=20 Sep 2006|publisher=Guardian|accessdate=12 Jan 2009}}</ref> which pattern the tobacco lobby years earlier,<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/Business/story?id=2767979&page=1|title=Report: Big Money Confusing Public on Global Warming|first=Clayton|last=Sandell|date=3 Jan 2007|publisher=ABC News|accessdate=12 Jan 2009}}</ref> and conservative commentators such as [[Rush Limbaugh]] who has contributed to the Republican Party adopting a highly skeptical view.<ref name="Dunlap2008RepublicanDemocraticGap" /> While Al Gore and environmental campaigns that focus on the effects of global warming managed to increase concern, it failed to convincingly communicate the causes or improve the perception of media bias,<ref name="Saad2007HollywoodHeathUpConcern">{{Cite web|url=http://www.gallup.com/poll/26932/Did-Hollywoods-Glare-Heat-Public-Concern-About-Global-Warming.aspx|title=Did Hollywood's Glare Heat Up Public Concern About Global Warming?|first=Lydia|last=Saad|date=21 Mar 2007|publisher=Gallup|accessdate=12 Jan 2010}}</ref> and still others others attribute that "many people were turned off by extremists on both sides."<ref name="Corcoran2010Coll">{{Cite web|url=http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/columnists/story.html?id=e06924ca-91e0-4a18-8165-126656414605&p=1|title=The cool down in climate polls|first=Terence|last=Corcoran|date=6 Jan 2010|publisher=National Post|accessdate=12 Jan 2010}}</ref> The proportion of Americans believing that global warming is exaggerated in the media rose from 1998 to 2004, dropped from 2005 to 2007 until rising again to a high point of 41% in 2008.<ref name="Saad2009GlobalWarmingExaggerated" /> 35% of Americans believe that it’s very likely some scientists have falsified research data to support their own theories and beliefs although a fourth say not at all, while polls also indicate a shift from a focus on environmental issues to those economic.<ref name="Rassussen2010AmericansSkepticalScience">{{Cite web|url=http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/environment_energy/americans_skeptical_of_science_behind_global_warming|title=Americans Skeptical of Science Behind Global Warming|date=3 Dec 2009|publisher=Rasmussen Reports|accessdate=12 Jan 2010}}</ref> |
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===Economics=== |
===Economics=== |
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In 2009 Eurobarometer found that, on the average, Europeans rate climate change as the second most serious problem facing the world today, between "poverty, the lack of food and drinking water" and "a major global economic downturn." 87% of Europeans consider climate change to be a "serious" or "very serious" problem, while 10% "do not consider it a serious problem."<ref>{{harvnb|TNS Opinion and Social|2009|p=15}}</ref> While the greater majority believe climate change is a serious threat, 55% percent believe the EU is doing too little and 30% believe the EU is going the right amount.<ref>{{harvnb|TNS Opinion and Social|2009|p=21}}</ref> |
In 2009 Eurobarometer found that, on the average, Europeans rate climate change as the second most serious problem facing the world today, between "poverty, the lack of food and drinking water" and "a major global economic downturn." 87% of Europeans consider climate change to be a "serious" or "very serious" problem, while 10% "do not consider it a serious problem."<ref>{{harvnb|TNS Opinion and Social|2009|p=15}}</ref> While the greater majority believe climate change is a serious threat, 55% percent believe the EU is doing too little and 30% believe the EU is going the right amount.<ref>{{harvnb|TNS Opinion and Social|2009|p=21}}</ref> |
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In the United States, perception that global warming is a serious threat within their lifetimes have leveled off at around one-third of individuals over the past twenty years |
In the United States, perception that global warming is a serious threat within their lifetimes have leveled off at around one-third of individuals over the past twenty years<ref name="Dunlap2008PartisanGap">{{Cite web|first=Riley E.|last=Dunlap|title=Partisan Gap on Global Warming Grows|url=http://www.gallup.com/poll/107593/partisan-gap-global-warming-grows.aspx|publisher=Gallup|date=29 May 2008|accessdate=17 Dec 2009}}</ref> Although when asked whether it was a serious concern, the proportion declined from 1990 to 1998 where it quickly rose during 2000. The proportion declined during 9/11 as individuals prioritized terrorism over environmental concerns until 2004 where it rose and leveled off at two-thirds.<ref name="Saad2009GlobalWarmingExaggerated" /> Among environmental issues Americans prioritize pollution of drinking water, toxic waste, pollution of rivers and lakes, fresh water needs, air pollution, damage to the ozone layer, and the loss of tropical rain forests over global warming. Although they are less concered over species exticntion and acid rain.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.gallup.com/poll/22291/Americans-Still-Highly-Concerned-About-Global-Warming.aspx|title=Americans Still Not Highly Concerned About Global Warming|first=Lydia|last=Saad|date=7 Apr 2006|publisher=Gallup|accessdate=7 Jan 2009}}</ref> |
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==References== |
==References== |
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Revision as of 07:57, 12 January 2010
Public opinion on climate change is the aggregate of attitudes or beliefs held by the adult population concerning the science, economics, and politics of global warming.
Variations by individual circumstances
Regional
In 2007–2008 Gallup Polls surveyed 128 countries. This poll queried whether the respondent knew of global warming and, for those who were aware of the issue, whether or not they thought it was human-induced. Over a third of the world's population were unaware of global warming, with developing countries less aware than developed, and Africa the least aware. Of those aware, residents of Latin America and developed countries in Asia lead the belief that climate change is a result of human activities while Africa, parts of Asia and the Middle East, and a few countries from the Former Soviet Union lead in the opposite. Opinion within United States and United Kingdom are divided.[1]
Adults in Asia, with the exception of those in developed countries, are the least likely to perceive global warming as a threat. In the western world, individuals are the most likely to be aware and perceive it as a very or somewhat serious threat to themselves and their families;[2] although Europeans are more concerned about climate change than those in the United States.[3] However, the public in Africa, where individuals are the most vulnerable to global warming while producing the least carbon dioxide, is the least aware-which likewise translates to a low perception that it is a threat.[2]
These variations pose a challenge to policymakers, as different countries travel down different paths, making an agreement over an appropriate response difficult. While Africa may be the most vulnerable and produce the least greenhouse gases, they are the most ambivalent. The top five emitters (China, the United States, India, Russia, and Japan), who together emit half the world's greenhouse gases, vary in both awareness and concern. The United States, Russia, and Japan are the most aware at over 85% of the population. Conversely, only two-thirds of China and one-third of India are aware. Japan expresses the greatest concern, which likewise translates to support for environmental policies. China, Russia, and the United States, while varying in awareness, have expressed a similar proportion of aware individuals concerned. Similarly, those aware in India are likely to be concerned, however India faces challenges translating this concern to the remaining population as its energy needs increase over the next decade.[4]
Education
In countries varying in awareness, an educational gap likewise translates to a gap in awareness. However an increase in awareness does not always result in an increase in percieved threat. In China, 98% of those who have completed four years or more of college education reported knowing something or a great deal of climate change while only 63% of those who have completed nine years of education reported the same. Despite the differences in awareness in China, all groups perceive a low level of threat from global warming. In India those who are educated are likewise more likely to be aware, however those who are educated there are far more likely to report percieving global warming as a threat than those who are not educated.[4]
In Europe, individuals who have received more education entails likewise perceive climate change is a serious threat. There is likewise a strong association between education and internet use, where individuals who use the internet more are more likely to perceive climate change as a serious threat.[5]
Demographics
In countries varying in awareness, individuals in Urban areas are likewise reported know something or a great deal about climate change. In China, 77% of those who live in urban areas are aware as to 52% in rural areas, trends are mirrored in India with 49% to 29%.[4]
Of those countries where at least half the population are aware of global warming, those those with the greatest proportion believing that global warming is a human activities likewise spend more on energy.[6]
In Europe, individuals under fifty-five are more likely to perceive both "poverty, lack of food and drinking water" and climate change as a serious threat than individuals over fifty-five. Male individuals are more likely to perceive climate change as a threat than female individuals. Managers, white collar workers, and students are more likely to perceive climate change as a greater threat than house persons and retired individuals.[5]
Political identification
In the United States, historically support for environmental protection has been relatively non-partisan, for example with Republican Theodore Roosevelt establishing national parks and Democrat Franklin Delano Roosevelt establishing the Soil Conservation Service. This non-partisanship began to change during the 1980s when the Reagan administration stated that environmental protection was an economic burden. Views over Global warming began to seriously diverge among Democrats and Republicans during Kyoto in 1998. Gaps in opinions among the general public are often amplified among the political elites, such as members of Congress, who tend to be more polarized.[7]
Ideology
In the United States, ideology acts as an effective predictor of party identification, where conservatives are more prevalent among Republicans, and moderates and liberals among independents and Democrats. A shift in ideology is often associated with in a shift in political views.[8] For example, when the number of conservatives rose from 2008 to 2009, the number of individuals who viewed that Global warming is exaggerated in the media likewise rose.[9]
Variation by issue
Science
Despite objections from individual scientists, a scientific consensus exists recognized by national academies of science and other authoritative bodies.[10] The conclusions are that there has been an increase global temperatures from the mid-twentieth century to the present, that the current change can largely be attributed to the release of greenhouse gases,[11] and that natural phenomena such as solar radiation and volcanism produced most of the warming from pre-industrial times to 1950 and had a small cooling effect afterward.[12][13] Studies such as surveys of climatologists and reviews of abstracts from scientific journals have found little controversy over these conclusions within the scientific community.[14][15]
In the interest of "balance" the popular media in the U.S. gives disproportionate attention to skeptics relative to the scientific community as a whole, and the level of agreement within the scientific community has not been accurately communicated within the United States.[16] This coverage differs from that presented in other countries, where press coverage is more consistent with the scientific literature.[17] Despite the difference, and while individuals themselves may hold a different opinion, over the past ten years there has been an increase in the proportion of Americans who believe that scientists agree that global warming is occurring, even across political lines where a gap remains.[7]
Some journalist attribute the disproportionate coverage in the popular media to climate change denialism to the business-centered organizations,[18][19] which pattern the tobacco lobby years earlier,[20] and conservative commentators such as Rush Limbaugh who has contributed to the Republican Party adopting a highly skeptical view.[7] While Al Gore and environmental campaigns that focus on the effects of global warming managed to increase concern, it failed to convincingly communicate the causes or improve the perception of media bias,[21] and still others others attribute that "many people were turned off by extremists on both sides."[22] The proportion of Americans believing that global warming is exaggerated in the media rose from 1998 to 2004, dropped from 2005 to 2007 until rising again to a high point of 41% in 2008.[9] 35% of Americans believe that it’s very likely some scientists have falsified research data to support their own theories and beliefs although a fourth say not at all, while polls also indicate a shift from a focus on environmental issues to those economic.[23]
Economics
Economic debates weigh the benefits of limiting industrial emissions of mitigating global warming against the costs that such changes would entail. While there is a greater amount of agreement over whether global warming exists, there is less agreement over the appropriate response.
Politics
In 2009 Eurobarometer found that, on the average, Europeans rate climate change as the second most serious problem facing the world today, between "poverty, the lack of food and drinking water" and "a major global economic downturn." 87% of Europeans consider climate change to be a "serious" or "very serious" problem, while 10% "do not consider it a serious problem."[24] While the greater majority believe climate change is a serious threat, 55% percent believe the EU is doing too little and 30% believe the EU is going the right amount.[25]
In the United States, perception that global warming is a serious threat within their lifetimes have leveled off at around one-third of individuals over the past twenty years[26] Although when asked whether it was a serious concern, the proportion declined from 1990 to 1998 where it quickly rose during 2000. The proportion declined during 9/11 as individuals prioritized terrorism over environmental concerns until 2004 where it rose and leveled off at two-thirds.[9] Among environmental issues Americans prioritize pollution of drinking water, toxic waste, pollution of rivers and lakes, fresh water needs, air pollution, damage to the ozone layer, and the loss of tropical rain forests over global warming. Although they are less concered over species exticntion and acid rain.[27]
References
- ^ Pelham, Brett (22 Apr 2009). "Awareness, Opinions About Global Warming Vary Worldwide". Gallup. Retrieved 22 Dec 2009.
- ^ a b Pugliese, Anita; Ray, Julie (11 Dec 2009). "Awareness of Climate Change and Threat Vary by Region". Gallup. Retrieved 22 Dec 2009.
- ^ Crampton, Thomas (1 Jan 2007). "More in Europe worry about climate than in U.S., poll shows - Health & Science - International Herald Tribune". New York Times. Retrieved 26 Dec 2009.
- ^ a b c Pugliese, Anita; Ray, Julie (7 Dec 2009). "Top-Emitting Countries Differ on Climate Change Threat". Gallup. Retrieved 22 Dec 2009.
- ^ a b TNS Opinion and Social 2009, p. 13
- ^ Pelham, Brett W. (24 Apr 2009). "Views on Global Warming Relate to Energy Efficiency". Gallup. Retrieved 22 Dec 2009.
- ^ a b c Dunlap, Riley E. (29 May 2009). "Climate-Change Views: Republican-Democratic Gaps Expand". Gallup. Retrieved 22 Dec 2009.
- ^ Saad, Lydia (26 Jun 2009). "Conservatives Maintain Edge as Top Ideological Group". Gallup. Retrieved 22 Dec 2009.
- ^ a b c Saad, Lydia (11 Apr 2009). "Increased Number Think Global Warming Is "Exaggerated"". Gallup. Retrieved 22 Dec 2009.
- ^ Joint Science Academies (2005). "Joint science academies' statement: Global response to climate change" (Full free text). National Academies of Sciences. Retrieved 22 Dec 2009.
- ^
IPCC (2007). "Summary for Policymakers". In Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.) (ed.). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Full free text). Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.
{{cite book}}:|editor=has generic name (help); External link in|chapterurl=|chapterurl=ignored (|chapter-url=suggested) (help)CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link) - ^
Hegerl, G.C., F. W. Zwiers, P. Braconnot, N.P. Gillett, Y. Luo, J.A. Marengo Orsini, N. Nicholls, J.E. Penner and P.A. Stott (2007). "Chapter 9: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change". In Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.) (ed.). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Full free text). Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.
Recent estimates indicate a relatively small combined effect of natural forcings on the global mean temperature evolution of the second half of the 20th century, with a small net cooling from the combined effects of solar and volcanic forcings.
{{cite book}}:|editor=has generic name (help); External link in|chapterurl=|chapterurl=ignored (|chapter-url=suggested) (help)CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ Attention: This template ({{cite doi}}) is deprecated. To cite the publication identified by doi:10.1073/pnas.0605064103, please use {{cite journal}} (if it was published in a bona fide academic journal, otherwise {{cite report}} with
|doi=10.1073/pnas.0605064103instead. - ^ Attention: This template ({{cite doi}}) is deprecated. To cite the publication identified by doi:10.1029/2009EO030002, please use {{cite journal}} (if it was published in a bona fide academic journal, otherwise {{cite report}} with
|doi=10.1029/2009EO030002instead. - ^ Attention: This template ({{cite doi}}) is deprecated. To cite the publication identified by doi:10.1126/science.1103618, please use {{cite journal}} (if it was published in a bona fide academic journal, otherwise {{cite report}} with
|doi=10.1126/science.1103618instead. - ^ Attention: This template ({{cite doi}}) is deprecated. To cite the publication identified by doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.001, please use {{cite journal}} (if it was published in a bona fide academic journal, otherwise {{cite report}} with
|doi=10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.001instead. - ^ Attention: This template ({{cite doi}}) is deprecated. To cite the publication identified by doi:10.1108/01443330310790327, please use {{cite journal}} (if it was published in a bona fide academic journal, otherwise {{cite report}} with
|doi=10.1108/01443330310790327instead. - ^ Begley, Sharon (13 Aug 2007). "The Truth About Denial". Newsweek. Retrieved 11 Jan 2009.
- ^ David, Adam (20 Sep 2006). "Royal Society tells Exxon: stop funding climate change denial". Guardian. Retrieved 12 Jan 2009.
- ^ Sandell, Clayton (3 Jan 2007). "Report: Big Money Confusing Public on Global Warming". ABC News. Retrieved 12 Jan 2009.
- ^ Saad, Lydia (21 Mar 2007). "Did Hollywood's Glare Heat Up Public Concern About Global Warming?". Gallup. Retrieved 12 Jan 2010.
- ^ Corcoran, Terence (6 Jan 2010). "The cool down in climate polls". National Post. Retrieved 12 Jan 2010.
- ^ "Americans Skeptical of Science Behind Global Warming". Rasmussen Reports. 3 Dec 2009. Retrieved 12 Jan 2010.
- ^ TNS Opinion and Social 2009, p. 15
- ^ TNS Opinion and Social 2009, p. 21
- ^ Dunlap, Riley E. (29 May 2008). "Partisan Gap on Global Warming Grows". Gallup. Retrieved 17 Dec 2009.
- ^ Saad, Lydia (7 Apr 2006). "Americans Still Not Highly Concerned About Global Warming". Gallup. Retrieved 7 Jan 2009.
Bibliography
- TNS Opinion and Social (2009). "Europeans' Attitudes Towards Climate Change" (Full free text). European Commission. Retrieved 24 Dec 2009.
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