The recognition of a prodromal period preceding the onset of frank psychosis dates back to its first descriptions. Despite insights gained from a prospective approach to the study of the Clinical High Risk syndrome for psychosis (CHR-P), a prospectively-based understanding of the duration of the psychosis prodrome and the factors that may influence is not well-established. Here we analyze data from the second North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS-2) to characterize prodrome duration in those who converted to psychosis. Of the 764 participants identified as being at CHR-P, 94 converted to psychosis and 92 of these had recorded estimates of prodrome onset. Estimates of prodrome duration were derived from CHR-P syndrome onset and conversion dates from the Structured Interview for Psychosis-risk Syndromes. Results identified a mean prodrome duration of 21.6 months. Neither CHR-P sub-syndrome nor medication exposure was found to significantly influence prodrome duration in this sample. These results provide the most precise estimate of prodrome duration to date, although results are limited to prodromes identified by ascertainment as being at CHR-P. Our findings also suggest a rule of thirds with regard to prodrome duration in those followed for two years: one third of CHR-P patients who convert will do so by 1 year after CHR-P syndrome onset, another third 1-2 years after onset, and the final third more than 2 years after onset.

Progressive grey matter loss has been demonstrated among clinical high-risk (CHR) individuals who convert to psychosis, but it is unknown whether these changes occur prior to psychosis onset. Identifying illness-related neurobiological mechanisms that occur prior to conversion is essential for targeted early intervention. Among participants in the third wave of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS3), this report investigated if steeper cortical thinning was observable prior to psychosis onset among CHR individuals who ultimately converted (CHR-C) and assessed the shortest possible time interval in which rates of cortical thinning differ between CHR-C, CHR non-converters (CHR-NC), and health controls (HC). 338 CHR-NC, 42 CHR-C, and 62 HC participants (age 19.3±4.2, 44.8% female, 52.5% racial/ethnic minority) completed up to 5 MRI scans across 8 months. Accelerated thinning among CHR-C compared to CHR-NC and HC was observed in multiple prefrontal, temporal, and parietal cortical regions. CHR-NC also exhibited accelerated cortical thinning compared to HC in several of these areas. Greater percent decrease in cortical thickness was observed among CHR-C compared to other groups across 2.9±1.8 months, on average, in several cortical areas. ROC analyses discriminating CHR-C from CHR-NC by percent thickness change in a left hemisphere region of interest, scanner, age, age², and sex had an AUC of 0.74, with model predictive power driven primarily by percent thickness change. Findings indicate that accelerated cortical thinning precedes psychosis onset and differentiates CHR-C from CHR-NC and HC across short time intervals. Mechanisms underlying cortical thinning may provide novel treatment targets prior to psychosis onset.

More than 20 years after the clinical high risk syndrome for psychosis (CHR) was first articulated, it remains controversial whether the CHR syndrome predicts onset of psychosis with diagnostic specificity or predicts pluripotential diagnostic outcomes. Recently, analyses of observational studies, however, have suggested that the CHR syndrome is not pluripotential for emergent diagnostic outcomes. The present report conducted additional analyses in previously reported samples to determine (1) whether comorbid disorders were more likely to persist in CHR patients compared to a comparison group of patients who responded to CHR recruitment efforts but did not meet criteria, termed help-seeking comparison subjects (HSC); and (2) whether clinically defined pluripotential CHR subgroups could be identified. All data were derived from 2 multisite studies in which DSM-IV structured diagnostic interviews were conducted at baseline and at 6-month intervals. Across samples we observed persistence of any nonpsychotic disorder in 80/147 CHR cases (54.4%) and in 48/84 HSC cases (57.1%, n.s.). Findings with persistence of anxiety, depressive, and bipolar disorders considered separately were similar. Efforts to discover pluripotential CHR subgroups were unsuccessful. These findings add additional support to the view that the CHR syndrome is not pluripotential for predicting various diagnostic outcomes but rather is specific for predicting emergent psychosis.

Although the clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR) paradigm has become well-established over the past two decades, one key component has received surprisingly little investigative attention: the predictive validity of the criteria for conversion or transition to frank psychosis. The current study evaluates the predictive validity of the transition to psychosis as measured by the Structured Interview for Psychosis-Risk Syndromes (SIPS) in CHR individuals. Participants included 33 SIPS converters and 399 CHR non-converters both from the North American Prodromal Longitudinal Study (NAPLS-2), as well as a sample of 67 separately ascertained first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients from the STEP program. Comparisons were made at baseline and one-year follow-up on demographic, diagnostic stability (SCID), and available measurement domains relating to severity of illness (psychotropic medication, psychosocial treatment, and resource utilization). Principal findings are: 1) a large majority of cases in both SIPS converters (n = 27/33, 81.8%) and FEP (n = 57/67, 85.1%) samples met criteria for continued psychosis at one-year follow-up; 2) follow-up prescription rates for current antipsychotic medication were higher in SIPS converters (n = 17/32, 53.1%) compared to SIPS non-converters (n = 81/397, 20.4%), and similar as compared to FEP cases (n = 39/65, 60%); and 3) at follow-up, SIPS converters had higher rates of resource utilization (psychiatric hospitalizations, day hospital admissions, and ER visits) than SIPS non-converters and were similar to FEP in most categories. The results suggest that the SIPS definition of psychosis onset carries substantial predictive validity. Limitations and future directions are discussed.

Background

Malhi et al. in this issue critique the clinical high risk (CHR) syndrome for psychosis.

Method

Response to points of critique.

Results

We agree that inconsistency in CHR nomenclature should be minimized. We respectfully disagree on other points. In our view: a) individuals with CHR and their families need help, using existing interventions, even though we do not yet fully understand disease mechanisms; b) substantial progress has been made in identification of biomarkers; c) symptoms used to identify CHR are specific to psychotic illnesses; d) CHR diagnosis is not "extremely difficult"; e) the pattern of progression, although heterogenous, is discernible; f) "psychosis-like symptoms" are common but are not used to identify CHR; and g) on the point described as 'the real risk,' CHR diagnosis does not frequently cause harmful stigma.

Discussion

Malhi et al.'s arguments do not fairly characterize progress in the CHR field nor efforts to minimize stigma. That said, much work remains in areas of consistent nomenclature, mechanisms of disease, dissecting heterogeneity, and biomarkers. With regard to what the authors term the "real risk" of stigma associated with a CHR "label," however, our view is that avoiding words like "risk" and "psychosis" reinforces the stigma that both they and we mean to oppose. Moreover, patients and their families benefit from being given a term that describes what is happening to them.