The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated three trends that were already transforming economic development theory and practice. A backlash to economic restructuring and inequality, driven by globalization and technology, is now manifesting in reshoring and union movements. The resurgence of small and midsized cities, originally driven by increasing housing costs in coastal cities, has been reinforced by a rise in remote work. The uncertainty of today's complex economy is exacerbating long-term challenges of tracking economic change, making “shoot anything that flies” more important than ever. These trends highlight the need to focus economic development on building and supporting the workforce.

Abstract: The expectation of a mass movement out of cities due to the rise of remote work associated with the Covid-19 pandemic, is counter to longstanding theories of the benefits of agglomeration economies. It suggests centrifugal shifts of economic activity which could boost neighbourhood economies at the expense of the downtown core. Using mobile phone data from SafeGraph, we track migration and daily mobility patterns throughout the New York metropolitan area between July 2019 and June 2021. We find that diverse suburban centres and exurban areas have bounced back more quickly than the dense specialised commercial districts in and around Manhattan.

Between the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. technology industry increasingly shifted towards cities. Local governments pursuing innovation-led growth encouraged this shift, as exemplified by San Francisco, the spatial and symbolic urban home of the global technology industry. The commercial real estate market is central to understanding the city’s growth as a tech cluster between 2008 and 2020. Platform technology firms substantially contributed to employment growth and demand for office real estate in San Francisco during this period of rapid tech industry expansion. The city also exemplifies how the pandemic-led transition to remote work has profoundly changed the relationship between platform firms and urban space. In this paper, we use interviews and secondary sources to study tech-led office leasing and development activity in San Francisco. We identify neighborhood-level trajectories of path dependence, industrial conversion, failed revitalization, and frontier-making during the period of growth leading up to 2020. Digital platform companies exert significant economic and political influence over cities, but their control over urban space is also constrained by the historical, material, and economic realities of commercial real estate.