Climate warming has been suggested to impact high latitude grasslands severely, potentially causing considerable carbon (C) losses from soil. Warming can also stimulate nitrogen (N) turnover, but it is largely unclear whether and how altered N availability impacts belowground C dynamics. Even less is known about the individual and interactive effects of warming and N availability on the fate of recently photosynthesized C in soil. On a 10-year geothermal warming gradient in Iceland, we studied the effects of soil warming and N addition on CO2 fluxes and the fate of recently photosynthesized C through CO2 flux measurements and a 13 CO2 pulse-labeling experiment. Under warming, ecosystem respiration exceeded maximum gross primary productivity, causing increased net CO2 emissions. N addition treatments revealed that, surprisingly, the plants in the warmed soil were N limited, which constrained primary productivity and decreased recently assimilated C in shoots and roots. In soil, microbes were increasingly C limited under warming and increased microbial uptake of recent C. Soil respiration was increased by warming and was fueled by increased belowground inputs and turnover of recently photosynthesized C. Our findings suggest that a decade of warming seemed to have induced a N limitation in plants and a C limitation by soil microbes. This caused a decrease in net ecosystem CO2 uptake and accelerated the respiratory release of photosynthesized C, which decreased the C sequestration potential of the grassland. Our study highlights the importance of belowground C allocation and C-N interactions in the C dynamics of subarctic ecosystems in a warmer world.

Temperature governs most biotic processes, yet we know little about how warming affects whole ecosystems. Here we examined the responses of 128 components of a subarctic grassland to either 5-8 or >50 years of soil warming. Warming of >50 years drove the ecosystem to a new steady state possessing a distinct biotic composition and reduced species richness, biomass and soil organic matter. However, the warmed state was preceded by an overreaction to warming, which was related to organism physiology and was evident after 5-8 years. Ignoring this overreaction yielded errors of >100% for 83 variables when predicting their responses to a realistic warming scenario of 1 °C over 50 years, although some, including soil carbon content, remained stable after 5-8 years. This study challenges long-term ecosystem predictions made from short-term observations, and provides a framework for characterization of ecosystem responses to sustained climate change.