UCSF

Objective: Differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is associated with an excellent prognosis, but patients with distant metastatic DTC have a 10-year disease-specific survival (DSS) of just 50%. The incidence of distant metastatic DTC has steadily increased in the United States since the 1980s. The aim of this study was to examine trends in survival and treatment for patients with distant metastatic DTC. Methods: In this population-based, retrospective cohort study, patients with distant metastatic DTC were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-13 cancer registry program. Multivariable logistic and Cox regression analyses were used to examine factors associated with DSS and management. Annual percentage changes in treatment patterns were calculated using log-linear regression. Results: During 1992-2018, 1991 patients (69.7% white, 58.0% female, 47.5% aged ≥65 years) were diagnosed with distant metastatic DTC. Papillary thyroid cancer was the most common histological type (74.5%). While the 10-year DSS for overall DTC increased over time (95.4% for patients diagnosed in 1992-1998, 96.6% in 1999-2008, and 97.3% in 2009-2018; p < 0.01), 10-year DSS for DTC with distant metastases did not change (50.2%, 47.3%, and 52.4%, respectively; p = 0.48). Ten-year DSS rates were reduced for patients aged ≥65 years (28.1%), patients undergoing nonsurgical treatment with external beam radiation therapy and/or systemic therapy (6.0%), and patients undergoing no/unknown treatment (32.8%). On multivariable analysis, oncocytic carcinoma, age 65-79 and ≥80 years, male sex, node-positive disease, larger tumor size, nonsurgical treatment, and no/unknown treatment were associated with increased risk of thyroid cancer death. Between 1992 and 2018, the rate of nonsurgical treatment increased, on average, 1.3% per year (1992-1998: 22.9% vs. 2009-2018: 25.6%; p = 0.03), and the rate of patients receiving no/unknown treatment increased 1.9% per year (1992-1998: 11.3% vs. 2009-2018: 15.6%; p = 0.01). Patients aged 65-79 and ≥80 years were more likely than younger patients to receive nonsurgical management or no/unknown treatment. Conclusion: Patients diagnosed with distant metastatic DTC have experienced no improvement in DSS over the past three decades. An increasing proportion of patients diagnosed with distant metastatic DTC are receiving nonsurgical treatment or no/unknown treatment over time; the proportion was highest among the oldest patients.