Brian Connolly

Worldpanel by Kantar Irish grocery data for the 12 wks to 12/05/24 sees Dunnes Stores stay 1st with 23.7% market share. Tesco Ireland stay second on 23.0% and SuperValu are third with 20.4%. Lidl Ireland and Aldi Ireland follow in fourth and fifth place with 13.8% and 11.6% respectively. Its worth noting the movement in the two ‘packs’. Dunnes and Tesco are putting definite distance between them and SuperValu. Equally, Lidl are creating space between them and Aldi. Aldi are on 11.6% share, a number they first achieved in September 2017, since which they’ve opened 32 new stores. In the four weeks to 12/05/24, take-home grocery sales increased by 4.7% with inflation at +2.6% remaining a key driver. It’s good news that the rate of increase has moderated, but households are still not seeing any significant decrease on their shopping bills. A €100 trolley shop in 2021 would now cost €126.10 after three consecutive years of inflation layering on top of each other. That equates to an additional €1,357 per year compared to 2021. Not surprisingly, shoppers are seeking to mitigate this pressure by switching to lower price private label options. Overall, PL grew 5.7% compared to a market growing 4.7% and brands growing 4.0%. Within these numbers, premium private labels grew 12.6% but this included the Easter period where supermarkets dial up their premium ranges. We’ll see a more accurate picture in 7-8 weeks when Easter is out of the numbers. Nonetheless, premium private labels still represent a saving since our latest research across Europe shows that they are 18% cheaper than the equivalent brands. The real savings are available when switching to mid-tier PL which our research showed is priced 54% below the equivalent brand. The danger for brands is that shoppers try the mid-tier PL products, like them and never go back. And the opportunities for private label are only increasing across the market. Applegreen forecourt stores have been stocking a range of up to 400 Marks and Spencer Food private label products since last October. And since February we’ve seen The Maxol Group trialling nearly 200 Dunnes Simply Better products. Clearly, the forecourt world is planning for massive change as fossil fuels are phased out and sites pivot to electric car charging, food for now, groceries for later and click & collect hubs. This is just one example of how society is evolving, but it seems that whatever the future holds, there’s an increasing role for retailer own brands. 💡 If you thought this review was useful make sure to connect and follow #supermarketmalachy ✅ I help you achieve profitable growth through #strategy and #negotiationskills #training #fmcg #strategyconsulting #commercialskills International Private Label Consult (IPLC) #salestraining #privatelabel The Uspire Group #salestraining #supermarkets

267

24 Comments

🦃 Lidl Ireland has announced a new supply deal with Monaghan-based McCaghey Turkeys which will see its products available across all 223 stores across the island of Ireland. https://lnkd.in/ejhEuNt4

23

AB InBev: 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐞𝐥𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐲, 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬 & 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚 𝐰𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬 Three key drivers for missed top-line we heard a lot during this Q3 earnings season & that explain ABI top-line miss for Q3 Stock price lost 5% since announcement this week and 50% since its 2016 peak post the SAB-Miller acquisition BEES (ABI EB2B) continues to fly & increasingly display promising optionalities 𝐄𝐱𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐀𝐁𝐈 More details: ABI Q3 FY24 results summary: - NR: $15Bn - OSG: 2.1%; Volume/Mix: -2.4%; Price: 4.5% - GM%: 55.6%; +183 bps vs Q3 FY23 - Adj OI%: 27.2%; +171 bps vs Q3 FY23 Results by divisions: - North America: NR: $3.9Bn, OSG: 1.5%; Volume/Mix: -0.4%; Price: 1.9% Adj. OI%: 35.1%; +363 Bps vs Q3 FY23 - Middle Americas: NR: $4.1Bn, OSG: 1.9%; Volume/Mix: -2.2%; Price: 4.1% Adj. OI%: 50.4%; +343 Bps vs Q3 FY23 - South Americas: NR: $2.9Bn, OSG: 5.6%; Volume/Mix: -0.6%; Price: 6.2% Adj. OI%: 31.0%; +156 Bps vs Q3 FY23 - EMEA: NR: $2.3Bn, OSG: 8.2% Volume/Mix: 2.7%; Price: 5.5%, Adj. OI% 33.2%; +80 Bps vs Q3 FY23 - Asia Pacific: NR $1.7Bn, OSG: -9.5%; Volume/Mix: -11.4%; Price: 1.9% Adj. OI%: 29.8%; -213 Bps vs Q3 FY23 - Global Export & Holding Companies: NR: $0.1Bn, OSG: 2.3%; Volume/Mix: -20.5%; Price: 22.8% Bees:  - GMV: $12.1Bn (+14% vs Q3 FY23)  - # of orders: 9.5M (+31 vs Q3 FY23)  - 72% of ABI’s revenue is from eB2B  - $0.6Bn of sales captured from 3P sales (+51% vs Q3 FY23)  - Live in 28 markets 𝗧𝗼 𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀, 𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝘂𝘀 & 𝘀𝘂𝗯𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗶𝗯𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗙𝗠𝗖𝗚 𝗖𝗘𝗢 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘄𝘀𝗹𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿: https://lnkd.in/ea4gy65y 𝗔𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘂𝘀: FF&A solves the most complex strategic problems of the world largest FMCG companies across Corporate Strategy, Organic Growth, Digital RTM (Ecommerce, DTC, EB2B) and M&A. 14 out of the world 20 largest FMCG companies are repeat Clients (more on FF&A website: https://lnkd.in/dc6jY4Qp) #fmcg #cpg The Coca-Cola Company PepsiCo Procter & Gamble Unilever The HEINEKEN Company Danone Carlsberg Group AB InBev Henkel Reckitt Haleon Opella Bayer | Consumer Health Kenvue Mars Ferrero Mondelēz International Lindt & Sprüngli JDE Peet's General Mills Kimberly-Clark Essity Diageo Pernod Ricard Campari Group L'Oréal The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. Coty Beiersdorf Coca-Cola HBC Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Campbell's FrieslandCampina Kellanova Church & Dwight Co., Inc. Colgate-Palmolive Nestlé Edgewell Personal Care https://lnkd.in/eqpRK5xm

38

2 Comments

Our Irish Grocery Market Share is out and Tesco holds 23.3% of the market, up 8.6% year-on-year. Dunnes holds 23.2% market share with growth of 8.3% year-on-year. Dunnes growth stems mainly from more frequent, up 6.2% year-on-year, which contributed an additional €43.2 million to overall performance. SuperValu holds 20.2% of the market with growth of 2.4%. SuperValu shoppers make the most trips in store when compared to all retailers, an average of 21.9 trips a year. Explore the current and historical #GroceryMarketShare data on our interactive data viz: https://loom.ly/Vr11IdI Read the full article here: https://loom.ly/PlGz4X4 #Kantar #GroceryMarketShare

23

Cooks Coffee Company announces that it has entered an agreement between Dairygold Agri Business Limited & Esquires Coffee House Ireland Ltd for Esquires to operate & manage four cafés within Co-Op Superstores owned by Dairygold Food Ingredients (UK) in #Ireland. 🔗Read the full announcement here: https://lnkd.in/exctUSCS #COOK #Coffee

28

2 Comments

The Irish drinks sector is committed to promoting responsible consumption of alcohol. Alcohol consumption in Ireland has decreased by around 30% in the last 20 years, with clear trends showing that people are seeking more balance in how they drink and choosing more premium products. Producers have responded to consumer demand by launching new 0.0% alcohol innovations. Ireland is one of the fastest growing alcohol-free market globally. We abide by the some of the strictest regulation of advertising, promotion and sale in the world – and are committed to its successful implementation. Review our Pride of Place policy document and how we support the drinks industry to continue to grow and thrive. https://lnkd.in/ekh5XaF8 #DrinkResponsibly #zerozeroalcohol #moderation

36

BDS Ireland I can live without their whisky stout and liqueur. If you're considering boycotting Irish products for specific reasons, it’s important to first ensure you are fully aware of the brands and their associated values or actions. Some Irish products have global recognition, and their origin can often be tied to strong cultural or economic aspects of Ireland. Here are some well-known Irish products you might choose to avoid, depending on the reason for your boycott: Guinness – A globally popular stout, brewed by the Guinness brewery, which is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland. Baileys Irish Cream – A cream liqueur that blends whiskey with cream, produced by Diageo, an international company that owns the brand. Jameson Irish Whiskey – One of the best-known Irish whiskeys globally, produced by the Irish Distillers subsidiary of Pernod Ricard.

1

Speaking following Budget 2025, Drinks Ireland Director Cormac Healy said;   Alcohol consumption in this country is down by over 30% in the last twenty years and continues to fall. Excise levels on drinks are amongst the highest in Europe.    While we have sought a process of aligning our excise levels with EU averages, the announcement by the Minister of no increase in general levels of excise on alcohol products is some relief to brewers, distillers and drinks manufacturers around the country, as well as hospitality businesses who are facing difficult trading conditions.    We welcome the extension of excise relief introduced last year for independent small producers of cider and perry to those producers of other fermented beverages and to small producers of higher strength ciders. These measures can prove vital in encouraging the growth of such businesses in towns and villages across Ireland, while increasing innovation and diversity in the category. Cormac Healy Jennifer Wallace Eoin Ó Catháin Aengus King Ibec Richard Collumb Carlow Brewing Company Stonewell Cider The Apple Farm Legacy Irish Cider Olan McNeece #economiccontribution #cider #exciserates

9

South Africa’s Spar Group to underpin successful Irish business BWG Foods with nearly €24m investment - Retail group’s boss said Irish business had shown ‘strong growth’ amid feared exit from European markets https://lnkd.in/eXCbYPD6

1

In the realm of spirits, Northern Irish whiskey is emerging as a force to be reckoned with on the global stage. A recent article highlights the impressive growth and success of Northern Irish whiskey brands in the export market, showcasing the industry's resilience and innovation. In recent years, Northern Irish whiskey has been gaining international acclaim, thanks to its unique flavor profiles and the dedication of distillers to push boundaries and explore new techniques. This recognition has translated into significant growth in exports, with Northern Irish whiskey brands finding success in markets around the world. One of the key factors driving the success of Northern Irish whiskey in the export market is the diversity of offerings. From traditional blends to innovative expressions, distilleries in Northern Ireland are continually experimenting with different aging methods, cask finishes, and flavor profiles, catering to a wide range of tastes and preferences. In addition to producing exceptional whiskey, Northern Irish distilleries are also leading the way in sustainability and innovation. Many distilleries have implemented environmentally friendly practices, such as water conservation and renewable energy initiatives, ensuring that they not only produce great whiskey but also do so in a responsible manner. As the global demand for premium spirits continues to rise, the future looks bright for Northern Irish whiskey. With a rich heritage, a commitment to quality, and a spirit of innovation, Northern Irish distilleries are well-positioned to further expand their presence in the international market and continue to delight whiskey enthusiasts around the world. Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/d3GfKXn5 #WhiskeyNews #IrishWhiskey #Caskcap

2

Worldpanel by Kantar Irish grocery data for 12w/e to 01/09/24 sees Dunnes Stores retake 1st on 23.6% share, just ahead of Tesco Ireland on 23.5%. SuperValu on 19.9% stay 3rd. Lidl Ireland are 4th on 13.7%, while Aldi Ireland are 5th on 11.8%. The market grew +5.4% for the 4 weeks to 1st Sep, with Inflation at 2.8% we’re seeing volume growth of 2-3%. Possible reasons? ·       Population growth as births/immigration outpace deaths/emigration ·       Ukrainian refugees moving from hotels into private accommodation ·       Less cross-border shops (diesel is +16% YOY) SuperValu have slipped below 20% for the first time since Autumn 2013. The addition of the #SuperQuinn stores in Feb ’14 boosted their grocery share briefly to 25.3% but this quickly settled at around 23% and then began to decline almost continuously. We’ve seen this in other take-overs like Safeway/Morrisons. The pandemic gave SuperValu a boost thanks to ultra-local shopping but the discounters have piled on the pressure, extending their combined estate by 36% from 250 to ~340 stores, and in locations that previously SuperValu would have been the main supermarket. For example, Ardee has a population of about 5,000 and has an Aldi and a Lidl. Cahirciveen and Mountbellew have around 1,000 people and have an Aldi. SuperValu have actually shown great resilience in this context and Musgraves is a diversified organisation with their foodservice, wholesale and Centra divisions. But it must be a tough place if you’re a SuperValu owner-operator, dealing with succession planning, rising costs and highly scaled competitors challenging your margins. The new MD Luke Hanlon is a very sharp guy, it will be interesting to see how he leverages his supply chain expertise and that diversified Musgrave capability to strengthen the SuperValu proposition. Aldi and Lidl are benefitting from just one new store each in their sales, the lowest I’ve ever seen. If Dunnes and Tesco can sustain their combination of vouchers, loyalty card discounts, #privatelabel range expansion and discounter price-matching, then we might see the discounter store opening pipeline run dry. In the meantime, Lidl sales grew +6.9% versus Aldi’s +1.0%. Reasons? •  Lidl’s in-store bakery drives value sales and trip frequency. •  Lidl Plus app offers interesting savings and staff are 100% engaged •  Brands seem to be working better in Lidl. Would love to hear your thoughts on the above! 💡 If you thought this review was useful make sure to connect and follow #supermarketmalachy ✅ I help you achieve profitable growth through #strategy and #negotiationskills #training   #fmcg #strategyconsulting #commercialskills International Private Label Consult (IPLC) The Uspire Group #salestraining #supermarkets #negotiationskills

264

19 Comments

The disposable vape ban comes into force in little over 6 months time, and already consumers are changing their category shopping habits. One aspect of the ban which hasn't been discussed particularly is the impact the ban might have on sales of other categories - the products typically bought with tobacco and vape products. Are some of them under threat? Soft drinks, energy drinks and water are typically bought with vape/tobacco products (along with a host of other items). Recent research by TWC Group found that 16% of shoppers visiting an independent convenience store made the trip to buy vape or tobacco products (which highlights how important the category is to local c-stores for footfall). We plan to run a shopper and retailer research study early in the new year to understand where c-store footfall is coming from in 2025. Contact us if you'd like to find out more.

11

4 Comments

Back with a ‘visual’ twist - here is a roundup of this weeks FMCG news 🗞️ 🍺Diageo €30m investment into the production of Guinness 0.0% alcohol in Dublin. ✅Intersnack Group snaps up Whole Earth Foods from Ecotone. 👨🏼‍⚖️US judge will decide on an $8.2 billion settlement offer from Johnson & Johnson as they look to close thousands of cancer lawsuits linked to J&J’s baby powder. 💵Private equity giants KKR, Apollo Global Management, Inc. and more to bid for Reckitt Essential Home Division. £6 billion fee qouted. 🥸Kellanova product Pringles partners with Movember for fifth year to support Mental Wellbeing. ♻️Mondelēz International partners with Amcor to announce ~300 million UK&I Cadbury sharing bars to have 80% recycled plastic packaging. 📈🥜Peanut Butter’s new success story, ManiLife | B Corp™ to open new £1 million production facility in England to keep up with demand. 🤝Pharma giant Sanofi is selling off 50% of its consumer healthcare business Opella. 🚬Philip Morris International is closing two factories in Germany. They aim to have two thirds of their sales coming from Cigarette alternatives by 2030. 👨🏼‍🍳Lotus Bakeries share price has now soared 376% over five years. ⬇️The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. shares plunge 25%. ❌Lifeway Foods, Inc. reject offer by Danone to acquire the business for about $283 million. Have I missed anything? 🎥 “A comfort zone is a beautiful place - but nothing ever grows there” #fmcg #consumergoods #supplychain #fmcgsupplychain #fmcgnews

73

30 Comments

So what’s happening in the on trade in terms of beer, cider and Softs? Well according to CGA Data, beer, cider and Softs continue to outperform all other categories, that said value sales have declined year over year as current rate of sale have not matched the levels of last years Rugby World Cup. In the last 12 weeks total drinks are down-2.7% versus LY. Whilst value is marginally up. Distribution and volume are both down. Wine and Spirts are both in decline. Stout is leading the way up 21% in value and 17% in volume. No Low is also considerably outperforming the market at 43% and 38% respectively. In terms of regions the NE is performing strongly as well as Central and South West. In terms of channels, managed and IFT lead the way over L&T. Drinking pubs are driving growth, with eating pubs and late night showing discrete growth. Premiumisation is still a thing with world beers driving the volume whilst standard lagers across all the brewers portfolio show strong decline. So not all doom and gloom, but clearly we’ve not been helped by the budget, which will add significant cost to our trade. Let’s hope for good weather heading into to the key Christmas trading period, no train strikes, floods or snow that will impact our consumers spending time in our on trade venues. LWC Drinks #ontrade#pubs#bars#restaurants#hotels#hospitality#

69

3 Comments