Burning Questions From The 2025 Oscars

  

Didn't it feel good seeing this start at a reasonable time?

 

Did you expect that optimism would fade later on?

 

Wasn't that L.A. tribute montage incredibly short given the circumstances? 

 

Can you believe they were seriously considering not have any musical performances on the show at all?

 

Was that a rhetorical question?

 

Were you expecting Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande to perform in character?

 

Was that maybe asking a little too much?

 

Okay then, how about Chalamet?

 

Out of all the nominees Conan could insert himself into, wasn't 'The Substance' the best choice?

 

Wasn't his joke about Netflix's constant price hikes the cold, hard truth?

 

Just like the one about Karla Sofía Gascón's publicist?

 

Didn't you know he'd immediately go there with the Gascón jabs?

 

And why shouldn't he?

 

Can you believe she actually attended? 

 

A sand worm playing the piano?

 

While the musical number was funny, did you think "I Won't Waste Time" was a promise Conan wouldn't be able to keep?

 

And wasn't that kind of the song's point?

 

With the exception of Chalamet's ultrasound, didn't those celebrity headshots resemble not so embarrassing high school yearbook photos?

 

How about that Adam Sandler bit? 

 

Did Robert Downey Jr. ramble or what? 

 

Are they really not showing any film clips of the nominees...again? 

 

Were you worried they'd present every category like that?

 

With the Culkin win, was everyone officially guaranteed one right on their ballots?

 

Sort of like he and his wife are officially guaranteed two more kids?

 

So, they're showing clips after all?

 

Did anyone correctly predict Animated Short?

 

In any year?

 

Ever? 

 

Didn't the costume nominees presentation take up a lot of time?

 

What would Conan say about that?

 

Wasn't Nick Offerman the ideal choice for announcer?  

 

Were you thinking that Original Screenplay win was a promising early sign for 'Anora?'    

 

Or were you thinking that Adapted Screenplay win was a promising early sign for 'Conclave?'

 

Weren't June Squibb and Scarlett Johansson an inspired pairing? 

 

Did Squibb display the best comedic timing of any presenter?

 

In the event of an Adrien Brody win, wouldn't it be better to have Halle Berry announce Best Actor?

 

Is isn't absurd how Margaret Qualley had to be a part of the James Bond tribute to get onto the Oscars?

 

So, they decided to go all in on the musical performances anyway?

'Cinemastreams?'

 

Was that the first time we've seen Darryl Hannah in over a decade?

 

Did that editing loss seal 'Conclave's' fate? 

 

Why were they not showing clips for the Supporting Actor and Actress nominees?

 

When Zoe won were you wondering if she'd mention Karla Sofía Gascón? 

 

If you still wanted a career after this, would you?

 

Was that Rolex commercial better than just about any Oscar montage?

 

Mick Jagger?!

 

Isn't he unsurprisingly great at this whole presenting thing?

 

Did you think the 16th time would be the charm for Diane Warren? 

 

Did anyone correctly predict Documentary Short?

 

In any year?

 

Ever?

 

Am I in shock that I actually did?

 

Would "guessed" be a more accurate word than "predicted" in this instance?

 

Miles Teller and Miley Cyrus?

 

Are they Conan's version of Letterman's Oprah and Uma?

 

Was Conan's 'Anora' joke about "standing up to a powerful Russian" the line of the night?  

 

Am I the only one perplexed at the level of online hate directed toward Rachel Zegler?

 

Doesn't that 'Better Man' movie look ridiculous? 

 

Did my luck run out with Live-Action Short?

 

Didn't everyone's?

 

Wasn't that a classy tribute to Gene Hackman from Morgan Freeman? 

 

Wasn't it jarring to see how many big names we lost over the past year?

 

And surreal seeing Shelley Duvall, David Lynch, James Earl Jones and Gene Hackman listed consecutively at the end of the montage?

 

Did you yell "Oh no, not again!" when you realized they excluded Michelle Trachtenberg?

 

How can they so royally screw this up every year?

 

Are they trying to upset viewers?

 

Was 'I'm Still Here' winning Best International Feature the ultimate slap in the face to 'Emilia Pérez?'

 

Wasn't that sort of expected? 

 

Does it get any better than Mark Hamill coming out to John Williams?

 

Was Best Actor the most suspenseful award of the night? 

 

Did you breathe a sigh of relief or disappointment when Adrien Brody won? 

 

Was Cillian Murphy worried Brody would try to kiss him?

 

Did Brody's gum tossing top his infamous Halle Berry moment? 

 

Was his speech longer than 'The Brutalist?'

 

Did you notice Tarantino nodding and clapping with approval when Sean Baker talked about the importance of preserving the theatrical experience?

 

Was he preaching to the choir with that one? 

 

After seeing the poorly chosen Demi Moore clip, were you worried she may not have this in the bag after all? 

 

Did 'Anora''s screenplay, editing and directing wins forecast Mikey taking this? 

 

Didn't she give a really nice speech?

 

Though she hid it well, how disappointed must Demi be right now? 

 

Once Best Picture rolled around, wasn't 'Anora' winning inevitable?

 

But did you really expect it to clean up like it did?

 

Can Conan O' Brien do this again?

 

At this point, should any host just chalk it up as a victory they made it through the show without getting slapped? 

2025 Oscar Predictions

Lately, there's been this split inside the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, as the old guard continues to clash with an influx of newer members who changed the game when preferential balloting went into effect in 2009. While the former still cling to traditionalist views of what an Oscar winner should look and feel like, a younger, more diverse voting body has risen up, with some surprising results. 

Rarely has the playing field seemed as fractured as this year, as competing definitions of what a Best Picture is comes to a head an hour earlier Sunday when Conan O'Brien hosts the show. And as recent victors like Parasite, Nomadland, Coda and Everything Everywhere All At Once have proven, bigger doesn't always equal better for voters, with gigantic, high grossing theatrical epics becoming extinct in the streaming era. In retrospect, last year's "Barbenheimer" phenomenon was an anomaly, not just in terms of critical and commercial success, but in generating the kind of water cooler buzz that leads to renewed Oscar interest. 

Wicked appeared to be taking that route until abruptly fading from the conversation despite its 10 nomination haul. Instead, the headline surrounding this 87th Academy Awards is scandal, with former frontrunner Emilia Pérez's chances going up in smoke after a flurry of offensive tweets resurfaced from Best Actress nominee Karla Sofía Gascón. Now, it faces the very real possibility of being shut out of all 13 categories for which its nominated. 

Suddenly, we're left with a potential Conclave vs. Anora showdown when the dramatic papal thriller faces off against a more zeitgeisty vision that could better represent where modern filmmaking's headed. Whether it gets the general public to care about the show is almost beside the point since this almost century old institution isn't going anywhere, regardless of what wins or how much doomsayers complain. But we are set for a really tight one on Sunday. Below are my predictions, along with an analysis of the major categories.                

 

*Predicted Winners 

ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot

ANIMATED SHORT
Beautiful Men
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Magic Candies
Wander to Wonder
Yuck!

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
Sugarcane 

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Death By Numbers
I Am Ready, Warden
Incident
Instruments of a Beating Heart
The Only Girl in the Orchestra

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
I'm Still Here (Brazil)
The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)
Emilia Perez (France)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Flow (Latvia)

LIVE ACTION SHORT 
A Lien
Anuja
I'm Not a Robot
The Last Ranger
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent 

FILM EDITING
Anora (Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (David Jancso)
Conclave (Nick Emerson)
Emilia Pérez (Juliette Welfling)
Wicked (Myron Kerstein)

SOUND
A Complete Unknown (Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey & David Giammarco)
Dune: Part Two (Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett & Doug Hemphill)
Emilia Pérez (Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz & Niels Barletta)
Wicked (Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson & John Marquis)
The Wild Robot (Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo & Leff Lefferts)

PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist (Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Patricia Cuccia)
Conclave (Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Cynthia Sleiter)
Dune: Part Two (Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau)
Nosferatu (Production Design: Craig Lathrop; Set Decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová)
Wicked (Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales)

COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown (Arianne Phillips)
Conclave (Lisy Christl)
Gladiator II (Janty Yates & Dave Crossman)
Nosferatu (Linda Muir)
Wicked (Paul Tazewell)

ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist (Daniel Blumberg)
Conclave (Volker Bertelmann)
Emilia Pérez (Clément Ducol and Camille)
Wicked (John Powell and Stephen Schwartz)
The Wild Robot (Kris Bowers)

ORIGINAL SONG
"El Mal," Emilia Pérez (Clément Ducol, Camille & Jacques Audiard)
"The Journey," The Six Triple Eight (Diane Warren)
"Like a Bird," Sing Sing (Abraham Alexander & Adrian Quesada)
"Mi Camino," Emilia Pérez (Camille & Clément Ducol)
“Never Too Late,” Elton John: Never Too Late (Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt & Bernie Taupin)

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man (Mike Marino, David Presto & Crystal Jurado)
Emilia Pérez (Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier & Jean-Christophe Spadaccini)
Nosferatu (David White, Traci Loader and Suzanne Stokes-Munton)
The Substance (Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli)
Wicked (Frances Hannon, Laura Blount and Sarah Nuth)

VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus (Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin & Shane Mahan)
Better Man (Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft & Peter Stubbs)
Dune: Part Two (Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe & Gerd Nefzer)
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story & Rodney Burke)
Wicked (Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk and Paul Corbould)

CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist (Lol Crawley)
Dune: Part Two (Greig Fraser)
Emilia Pérez (Paul Guilhaume)
Maria (Ed Lachman)
Nosferatu (Jarin Blaschke)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown (James Mangold, Jay Cocks)
Conclave (Peter Straughan)
Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard; In collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius & Nicolas Livecchi)
Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes)
Sing Sing (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John "Divine G" Whitfield)

A month or two ago, Audiard's script for Emilia Pérez would have been a serious threat in this category, or at least leading Nickel Boys and Sing Sing. Now it's in dead last, with all the controversy shining an even bigger spotlight on what dissenters already thought was the film's weakest aspect. Now, A Complete Unknown has made up about as much ground as Pérez lost, but most are more enamored with Chalamet's take on Dylan than Mangold and Cocks' script. That leaves the still very well regarded Conclave, which almost has to win this with Edward Burger's direction going unnominated and the Actor and Picture outcomes still in doubt. Its recent SAG and BAFTA trophies only help.       

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora (Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold)
A Real Pain (Jesse Eisenberg)
September 5 (Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Co-Written by Alex David)
The Substance (Coralie Fargeat)

It's a surprise enough voters even knew about September 5 so its inclusion here is probably reward enough. A Real Pain has a great chance, but with only one other nod to its name, it may not be significant enough to topple three strong Best Picture contenders. If it's between Anora, The Brutalist and The Substance, this outcome largely depends on what happens in the bigger, more consequential races. Given the roll Anora's on and that the latter two will likely be recognized elsewhere, you have to figure this goes to WGA winner Sean Baker, who's the only nominee equally respected as both a writer and director. Whether or not Anora takes home the big one, voters will want to reward him here.        

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
Ariana Grande (Wicked)
Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

With a frontrunner who's been forced to distance herself from the very film she's nominated for, the discussion revolves around how much damage has been done to Zoe Saldaña. But there's good news. While not quite the lock she was a month ago, even Pérez's most vehement haters would admit her performance is far and away the best thing in it. So what it really comes down to is whether anyone can beat her. 

Rossellini has two minutes of screen time in Conclave, most need to be reminded The Brutalist's Jones was nominated, and as much love as A Complete Unknown's Monica Barbaro has gotten, a win her first time out is a stretch. That leaves us with Ariana Grande, who's deserving, but Wicked's stalled campaign makes it hard to imagine voters favoring her, even under these circumstances. If anything, the Academy will be more inclined to reward Saldaña for graciously holding it together throughout the entire P.R. disaster. With Globe, BAFTA and SAG wins under her belt, she's got this.               

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov (Anora)
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Anora's Yura Borisov earned a surprise, but well deserved nod that's hopefully just the start for him. Norton represents yet another endorsement for A Complete Unknown, but he's a real longshot. Though many think Guy Pearce should be getting even more attention for his role as industrialist Harrison Lee Van Buren in The Brutalist, he's a lot less likely than Adrien Brody to be the acting win that polarizing film picks up. 

So good as young Trump's slimy mentor Roy Cohn in The Apprentice, Jeremy Strong taking this feels completely justified, if not for the fact his Succession costar Culkin already has it locked up for his manic portrayal of rambunctious, grief ridden cousin Benji Kaplan in A Real Pain. While the Supporting Actress race is known for its upsets, this category isn't, and should be the only foregone conclusion of the night. Put your money on Culkin, who won every precursor in sight and seems poised to deliver another wildly entertaining acceptance speech.   

ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)
Mikey Madison (Anora)
Demi Moore (The Substance)
Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)

Gascón never had much of a chance at pulling this off anyway given how her lead category placement was called into question from the get-go, with many still believing she and Saldaña should have swapped places. But none of that matters now, as her shot at becoming the first openly trans actress to win an Academy Award has evaporated. But what it does is create an opening for beloved underdog Fernanda Torres to capture some of those international votes for her Golden Globe winning performance in I'm Still Here, which no one dislikes.

Erivo seemed much stronger before Wicked fizzled, erasing her from contention and leaving Mikey Madison and Demi Moore to battle it out in a race that's narrowed considerably in recent weeks as Anora's gained momentum. Madison's surprise BAFTA win definitely helped and a potential Best Picture victory could seal this since her performance and the film are nearly inseparable. But SAG and Globe losses to Moore, combined with her lower visibility, could hurt. Voters have also have a history of passing over young ingenues by rationalizing how much "time" they still have to win Oscars.

It's less what Madison lacks than everything Moore brings, which is immense popularity and a narrative that overcomes any ambivalence toward endorsing a graphic body horror film. And who among the Academy won't want to hear another inspiring acceptance speech about the double standards facing  women in Hollywood? Or reward an actress who thought she was finished, only to pour all those fears and insecurities into the defining role of her forty year career? Comeback stories don't get much bigger than this.                     

ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

In a sparser than usual field, I'd jump out of my seat if Sebastian Stan won for The Apprentice, but it's just not in the cards. And neither is a victory for Sing Sing's Colman Domingo or Conclave's Ralph Fiennes, who's slipped despite Conclave recently regaining ground. Besides giving the category's most popular performance, Chalamet managed to win over many doubters who assumed he couldn't play a believable Bob Dylan and does his own singing (something previous winners like Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody can't claim). The surprise SAG victory indicates passionate support, even if it came after Oscar voting already ended. 

Whether or not playing a real life figure still carries the same currency it once did, Chalamet would be the youngest Best Actor winner ever at 29, breaking the record set by fellow nominee Adrien Brody over twenty years earlier in The Pianist. And we'll see if voters can justify holding off on crowning Chalamet, who many believe will be back here again soon. But whatever hesitation there is in recognizing Mikey Madison for that reason, just double it and ask Elvis' Austin Butler how things went for him against Brendan Fraser. As divisive as it is, The Brutalist can't go home empty handed and Brody's suffering performance as Hungarian-Jewish architect and Holocaust survivor László Tóth could be how voters honor it, making him a two-time Oscar winner. Still, this race is a coin flip.                

DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)
Sean Baker (Anora)
Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

Voters might be feeling a twinge of remorse that they can't substitute Conclave's Edward Burger, Nickel Boys' RaMell Ross, or Dune: Part Two's Denis Villeneuve in for Audiard, but the ship already sailed. A Complete Unknown will be remembered and celebrated for a while to come, but most agree it won't necessarily be for Mangold's direction. The Substance making it this far is a real credit to the talents of writer/director Fargeat, but a Best Actress and Makeup win is probably its ceiling. 

A possible Picture/Director split is always on everyone's minds when this year's no exception. Almost equally strong cases can be made for Brady Corbet and Sean Baker, but Baker has the slight edge having picked up that coveted DGA, an almost foolproof indicator that the Oscar's his. And if The Brutalist is a rough sit for voters, the more warmly embraced Anora has been held up as the ultimate signifier of Baker's skills. And him somehow feeling overdue with barely ten films behind him has to be seen as a very positive sign.         

BEST PICTURE
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I'm Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked

Emilia Pérez is finished, and while it's still leagues better than the atrocity that's been described, the film's excessive nomination tally and unfortunate scandal put a target on its back. Wicked peaked months ago and will occupy a proverbial blockbuster slot alongside Dune: Part Two, with voters awaiting their final installments before awarding either.

The competition is too stiff for I'm Still Here and Nickel Boys, neither of which have a director nod or equally meaningful notice that indicates a break through. The Substance's genre starts factoring in here since there's very little chance the Academy would crown a horror film with its top prize. A Complete Unknown's late surge is impressive, but more likely to result in a win for Chalamet than the movie as a whole. 

The Brutalist was looking much better a couple of weeks ago and it's hard to imagine a cerebral critics pick running away with this, especially considering how a similarly themed and executed masterpiece like There Will Be Blood couldn't even manage to pull it off. Conclave has a BAFTA and just recently got the SAG boost, but Berger's lack of a directing nod is worrisome.

While there's some precedent for overcoming the director hurdle (ask Ben Affleck), what can't be overcome is Anora winning both the PGA and DGA, making its path to gold a whole lot easier. Of those that have, only Brokeback Mountain, La La Land and 1917 failed to win Best Picture, with their losses documented as the most shocking in Oscar history. This doesn't feel like one of those races. Anora checks all the important boxes, solidifying it as the safer bet.                

2025 Oscar Nominations (Reaction and Analysis)

After an understandable delay and a couple of reschedulings, the 97th annual Academy Award nominations were announced live this morning by actors Rachel Sennott and Bowen Yang from the Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Beverly Hills. The results largely lined up with what was anticipated, save for a few surprises and one huge shock. What's most predictable about these is how the wealth is always spread among two or three films, leaving the rest to fight for scraps, despite everything usually hovering around the same level of quality. And without a big frontrunner like Oppenheimer, that was only magnified this year. 

Of course, there are always complaints about how certain fan favorites were overlooked, leaving us to determine what exactly constitutes a "snub." While those definitions will vary based on who you ask, there were still some noteworthy developments as we approach the Academy's first live steaming telecast on March 2 hosted by Conan O' Brien. Now with a little over a month left to go, we at least know a little more about where voters' heads are at, as scary as that prospect seems. Below are all the important talking points. Click here for the complete list of nominees.

-13 nominations for Emilia Pérez is a bit much, and if that's coming from someone who really liked the film, you can just imagine other reactions to Jacques Audiard's crime musical tying Oppenheimer's nomination haul. While it probably won't come anywhere close to that win total, it could be the rare case where a movie's increased profile is a detriment, causing detractors to dig their heels in even more.  

-Wicked and The Brutalist followed with 10 nods a piece, shattering whatever expectations that the latter would be too tough or cerebral a sit for voters. Of course we're assuming they actually watched it. To no one's surprise, Wicked cleaned up in all the technical categories such as costume, visual effects, production design, sound, editing and makeup. 

-The glaring omission of Conclave's Edward Berger in the director category all but confirms suspicions it's not going the distance, especially with Pérez's Audiard and The Brutalist's Brady Corbet in the mix. It's also reasonable to speculate James Mangold took Berger's spot, further solidifying voters' love for A Complete Unknown, which overperformed across the board. Any lingering worries about genre bias toward The Substance was just squashed with Coralie Fargeat's inclusion here and in Best Original Screenplay and Picture.

-The Substance's, Demi Moore is sitting in a really favorable position with a strong narrative to win, even as Mickey Madison still remains a possible victor for her work in Sean Baker's Anora. Despite lead/supporting category confusion, Pérez's Karla Sofia Gascón becomes Oscars' first openly trans Best Actress nominee while the field is rounded out with Wicked's Cynthia Erivo and I'm Still Here's Golden Globe winner Fernanda Torres, who's inclusion came at the expense of Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) and Amy Adams (Nightbitch). Zendaya was always a longshot for Challengers, and though it would have be downright surreal to utter the words "Oscar nominee Pamela Anderson" for The Last Showgirl, a bigger surprise comes in another category.

-Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice! Oddsmakers gave him a much better chance at getting in for his other Globe-nominated performance in A Different Man, but the audible gasp in the room when his name was announced for that film said it all. Easily the nomination of the morning, and one of the most deserved, with the Academy proving they can get it right. Adrien Brody has a good chance at becoming a two-time Oscar winner for The Brutalist, as he competes with Conclave's Ralph Fiennes, Timothée Chalamet's take on Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown and Sing Sing's Colman Domingo. Queer's Daniel Craig is left out.

-A groundswell of support for the film helps lift A Complete Unknown's Monica Barbaro to a Supporting Actress nomination for her performance as Joan Baez in one of the mornings more surprising inclusions. Selena Gomez's absence wasn't entirely unpredictable, with many voters likely thinking her Pérez co-star Zoe Saldaña has this in the bag anyway. Wicked's Ariana Grande will be her closest competition while Conclave's Isabella Rossellini nabs the last spot with the smallest role here. The obvious exclsuion is Margaret Qualley for The Substance, and while we suspected this could happen, it's still somewhat surprising after seeing how well the film fared overall. 

-Denzel (Gladiator II) and Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) are the only perceived oversights in a Supporting Actor category that sees Jeremy Strong justifiably getting his due for his complex turn as Donald Trump's despicable mentor Roy Cohn in The Apprentice. Joining him is Anora breakout Yura Borisov, A Complete Unknown's Ed Norton and The Brutalist's Guy Pearce, who serves as the latest indicator this divisive film is gaining traction. As basically the surest lock in any race right now, it's Kieran Culkin's to lose for A Real Pain.    

-With Best Picture shaping up to be a two movie battle between Emilia Pérez and The Brutalist, it seemed as if decided Dune: Part Two had a guaranteed spot months ago, if only out of pure obligation. Wicked, Conclave and Anora were all no brainers while the Nickel Boys and Brazil's adored International submission, I'm Still Here occupy underdog slots that many thought would go to A Real Pain and Sing Sing. Beating the odds, The Substance becomes one of the very few sci-fi/horror films to get nominated for the big prize. And riding its sudden wave of momentum, A Complete Unknown can now lay claim to matching Director and Picture nominations.

Other Random Observations:

-Nosferatu did surprisingly well, picking up nods for costume, makeup, production design and cinematography. More than most expected.

-Composers Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross are overlooked for their pulsating Challengers score, which many thought was the movie's best chance at a nomination.

-Despite its Original Screenplay nod and inevitable Kieran Culkin win, A Real Pain may go down as one of those critics' picks that just couldn't gain a foothold with voters in major categories, which might actually be a compliment.

-The Best Original Song category has failed to drum up interest in recent years and the decision not to have nominated songs performed on the show only reinforces that. And considering one of the two from Emilia Pérez is sung by a major recording artist co-starring in the film, this feels like even more of a missed opportunity than usual.

-Documentaries haven't fared much better, as a category that once generated a decent amount of excitement with eclectic selections is now almost entirely comprised of films examining social issues and nothing else. There's no question those should be there, but remember Searching For Sugar Man? It probably wouldn't make the cut now, though they did find room this year for Elton John's Never Too Late. If 2023's snub of Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie didn't reveal voters' aversion to entertainment biographies, their latest exclusion of Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story may have confirmed it. 

Burning Questions from the 2024 Oscars

 

 

Are we tired of Oscar hosts inserting themselves into clips of the Best Picture nominees?

Were you at least relieved it was just one?

Wasn't Jimmy Kimmel right that the show started already running behind?

Were you counting down the minutes until we got a joke about the length of this year's Best Picture nominees?

Or a De Niro age gap joke?

Or how about Robert Downey Jr.'s drug addiction?

Didn't RDJ less than thrilled?

Can you really blame him?

Was Messi the dog the best part of Kimmel's monologue? 

Or was it his shot at Katie Britt's State of the Union response?

Isn't it a great idea to finally have a Casting Oscar? 

When you saw the previous Supporting Actress winners come out on the stage were you thinking, "Oh no not this again?"

Were each of those introductions as long as an entire acceptance speech?

Did that just ruin any plans of the show not going over time?

Wouldn't it be more beneficial to show a clip from each nominee?

Would that have felt like an even bigger waste of time if Da'Vine Joy Randolph somehow didn't win?

 

Was that David Allan Grier? 

 

Didn't you just know Myazaki wouldn't show up?

 

Do voters even care?

 

Wasn't it great that the orchestra played that instrumental version of P.I.M.P. when Anatomy of a Fall won Original Screenplay?

 

Can you imagine if The Holdovers actually won that in light of the recent plagiarism allegations?

 

Wasn't that a solid speech from Cord Jefferson?

 

Did Billie Eilish's "What Was I Made For?" performance make you more certain it would win Best Song?

 

Is Michael Keaton back to collect his stolen Oscar for Birdman?

 

Or stolen nomination for The Founder?

 

After wins for Makeup, Costume and Production Design, wasn't it clear Poor Things would be cleaning up?

 

Was Lily Gladstone starting to get worried? 

 

Is there anything John Cena won't do?

 

Between him, The Rock and Bad Bunny, has WWE fully taken over this show? 

 

Wasn't Blunt and Gosling's "Barbenheimer" bit pretty funny?

 

Shouldn't there be a Stunt Oscar already?

 

Did you remember that Tim Robbins won Best Supporting Actor for Mystic River?

 

Did he jump the gun a bit in calling De Niro's Flower Moon performance Oscar-winning?

 

Didn't it take longer than you expected for Oppenheimer's first two wins?

Is there any audience member better at playing along with these bits than Spielberg? 

 

Weren't you relieved they didn't start playing off 20 Days in Mariupol director Mstyslav Chernov during his acceptance speech?

 

Are we finally getting that Twins sequel? 

 

Wasn't that an awesome Batman bit with Schwarzenegger, DeVito and Keaton? 

 

Were the Godzilla Minus One winners holding more Oscars or Godzilla figures?

 

Wes Anderson wins his first Oscar but isn't there?

 

Were the Best Song performances getting shorter and shorter?

 

Is that really something to complain about? 

 

How about John Mulaney's Field of Dreams dissection?

 

Did that make you want to see the movie again right now?

 

Should he host this show next year?

 

For his sake, do you hope he turns it down?    

 

How wild was Gosling's "I'm Just Ken" performance?

Didn't we all just know it would be? 

 

For just a second there, did you consider John Williams could win his sixth Oscar at age 92?

Is Billie Eilish the only one who didn't see that win coming? 

 

Didn't the earlier start time really, really help this show?  

 

Did you almost forget they still have to get to the In Memorium segment?

 

Were you curious how they'd screw it up this year?

 

Didn't we lose a lot of big names? 

 

How surreal was it to see Paul Reubens and Matthew Perry were two of them? 

What was with that huge, unreadable block of names they just threw up there? 

And the nonsensical camera angles?

Are they ever going to get this thing right?

Lance Reddick?

Treat Williams?

 

Wasn't that a great group of former Best Actor winners they picked as presenters? 

 

Can we please get Nicolas Cage nominated for something again soon? 

 

Wasn't it a pretty safe bet Spielberg would present Best Director?

 

Was it an even safer one that Christopher Nolan would win?

 

Isn't it weird that Jessica Lange won her Best Actress Oscar for the otherwise completely forgettable Blue Sky?

 

How about the look of utter shock and disbelief on Stone's face when her name was read?  

Did everyone's prediction scores take a nosedive after that?

Was all the love for Poor Things in other categories a good indication this could happen for her?

 

Did you think that Trump tweet was just a joke at first?

 

Can anyone really be surprised it was real? 

 

Could Al Pacino have read the Best Picture winner any more casually?  

Shouldn't we just be grateful the correct winner was announced? 

Well, that whole show was relatively painless, wasn't it?

 

For all the criticism Kimmel gets, is there really anyone else that audience would be able to tolerate? 

Wasn't it nice to have this telecast end on the same date it began for a change? 

2024 Oscar Predictions

Most years, Academy voters can either be relied on to spread the wealth among a variety of different films in many categories or put their energy behind one title that runs the table, sweeping nearly everything. Think Ben-Hur, Titanic and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Whether Oppenheimer joins that exclusive club remains to be seen, but it's sure shaping up that way, as it lays claim to a whopping thirteen nominations. 

Converting even half of those nods into wins would still make Sunday's 96th Oscars telecast a fairly predictable one, leaving little room for the surprises we hope for. Or if you're a more casual follower, plummeting ratings indicate you may not be watching anyway. But despite constant rumblings the ceremony could follow the SAG Awards to a streamer, it'll be staying on ABC for now with Jimmy Kimmel back hosting at a mercifully earlier start time.

In an effort to attract more eyeballs, Barbie will be all over the screen for promotional purposes, at least if commercials and ads are any indication. Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie's snubs notwithstanding, eight noms is still an impressive haul that can be credited to what they brought to material no one thought could work. Voters will ensure it picks up something, but the night really revolves around Oppenheimer's foreseeable wins and how the show's producers can overcome any potential monotony accompanying that. On paper, Best Actor and Actress appear the least locked, but even the tightness of those races has widened in recent weeks, which could be good news for fans finalizing their picks. My predictions are below, along with an in depth analysis of the major categories.           

*Predicted Winners 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Io Capitano (Italy)
Perfect Days (Japan)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
The Teachers' Lounge (Germany)
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom) 

BEST FILM EDITING
Anatomy of a Fall (Laurent Sénéchal)
The Holdovers (Kevin Tent)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)
Poor Things (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)

BEST SOUND
The Creator (Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich & Dean Zupancic)
Maestro (Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich & Dean Zupancic)
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One (Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon & Mark Taylor)
Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo & Kevin O’Connell)
The Zone of Interest (Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Barbie (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Jack Fisk and Adam Willis)
Napoleon (Arthur Max & Elli Griff)
Oppenheimer (Ruth De Jong & Claire Kaufman)
Poor Things (Shona Heath, James Price & Szusza Mihalek)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West)
Napoleon (David Crossman & Janty Yates)
Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick)
Poor Things (Holly Waddington)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
American Fiction (Laura Karpman)
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (John Williams)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)
Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)
Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"It Never Went Away," American Symphony (Jon Baptiste & Dan Wilson)
"I'm Just Ken," Barbie (Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt)
"What Was I Made For?" Barbie (Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell)
"The Fire Inside Me," Flamin' Hot (Diane Warren)
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” Killers of the Flower Moon (Scott George)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Golda (Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby & Ashra Kelly-Blue)
Maestro (Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou & Lori McCoy-Bell)
Oppenheimer (Luisa Abel)
Poor Things (Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier & Josh Weston)
Society of the Snow (Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí & Montse Ribé)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Creator (Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts & Neil Corbould)
Godzilla: Minus One (Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi & Tatsuji Nojima)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams & Theo Bialek)
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One (Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland & Neil Corbould)
Napoleon (Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco & Neil Corbould)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
El Conde (Edward Lachman)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto)
Maestro (Matthew Libatique)
Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)
Poor Things (Robbie Ryan)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)
Barbie (Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig)
Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)

This is a somewhat challenging race to predict since it's one the few Oppenheimer might not win. Already poised to take home at least a few technical awards, Poor Things is riding high right now, making it easy to imagine voters rewarding Tony McNamara for working wonders with Alasdair Gray's 1992 novel. In an open field like this, The Zone of Interest can't be discounted, either for its subject matter or how Jonathan Glazer handled a tricky adaptation. 

Three-time screenplay nominee Gerwig (along with co-writer Noah Baumbach) being recognized after all isn't outside the realm of possibility since this seems like an ideal place to honor Barbie. But confusion over its category placement landed it in a far more competitive race that's likely to be won by Cord Jefferson. His timely, of the moment take on Percival Everett's 2001 novel culturally resonates in a way its closest competitors don't. It also holds a BAFTA win over Oppenheimer, which isn't nothing.      

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet, Arthur Harari)
The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
Maestro (Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer)
May December (Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik)
Past Lives (Celine Song)

Barbie's exclusion opened this race up a little more while May December makes its only Oscar appearance alongside Cooper's more Academy-friendly Maestro. But in the case of both, writing wouldn't be singled out as their key strength, or at least enough of one to pull off a win. Past Lives risks getting lost in the shuffle while David Hemingson's classically constructed screenplay for The Holdovers was a sure bet until Anatomy of a Fall won this award at BAFTA and the Globes, emerging as the new favorite. 

Fall's other nominations also indicate broader support, with Triet and Harari's script appealing to voters' sense of storytelling efficiency. The Holdovers can still pull this off, but it may have stood a slightly better chance if director Alexander Payne was credited as a co-writer alongside Hemingson since everything's a popularity contest. And that it feels like a literary adaptation could work for or against its chances of voters recognizing its originality.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
America Ferrara (Barbie)
Jodie Foster (Nyad)
Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Blunt's first ever nod for Oppenheimer seems perplexing until you realize overall appreciation for the film carried her through. Danielle Brooks and Jodie Foster are in better positions, even as their respective films were overlooked in enough key categories that they've sort of become afterthoughts. 

While America Ferrera's reward will have to be impressively making the cut for Barbie, Da'Vine Randolph is the lockiest of locks for her performance as grieving Barton Academy cafeteria manager Mary Lamb in The Holdovers. It's hard to think of a more universally praised turn from anyone all year. In a category known for surprises, we won't be getting any here.           

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Voters liked Barbie's Gosling more than enough to find a spot for him but it's unlikely he has enough support to go further for his wildly subversive and entertaining take on Ken. It was always a coin flip between Poor Things co-stars Mark Ruffalo and Willem Dafoe, but it's Stone's movie, leaving the chosen Ruffalo as the odd man out in a crowded category. 

With KOTFM having lost momentum, the likelihood of De Niro upsetting for his turn as villainous politico William "King" Hale follows suit. Most agree it's great to see him in a role like this again, while also acknowledging there isn't anything particularly special about the performance. 

There's been nothing but unanimous praise for Sterling K. Brown's work in American Fiction but he's unfortunately pitted against an unstoppable Robert Downey Jr. who's been collecting trophies all season as two-faced Oppenheimer nemesis Lewis Strauss. Besides him greatly contributing the year's most honored film, it's being viewed as a post-Marvel reminder of what he's always done best. One of the biggest locks of the night.

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening (Nyad)
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
Emma Stone (Poor Things)

Acting legend Annette Bening has never won an Oscar, but as beloved as the five-time nominee is by voters, it won't be happening this year for her physically taxing performance as a 60-year-old distance swimmer in Nyad. And it's a shame Netflix didn't push harder since it's exactly the kind of part that could have done it for her. Mulligan (who should have won for 2020's Promising Young Woman) is sensational in Maestro, but with many still feeling it's Cooper's film, this is an uphill battle. She'll be back. 

If there's a spoiler, it'll be Hüller for Anatomy of a Fall given the Academy's large European contingent and overall respect shown to that film with its other nods. If the top two split votes, she's still a long shot, but no more of an impossibility than Olivia Colman was in 2018 when she upset Glenn Close.

With Critics Choice, BAFTA and Golden Globe wins, Stone's still sitting pretty right now, but Gladstone's arguably better situated, having also locked up a Golden Globe in addition to her PGA and SAG victories. But Stone already having Supporting Oscar shouldn't really harm her chances and the fact she's playing a resurrected nymphomaniac isn't viewed as much of an obstacle either, with most  focused on how brilliantly she did it. 

Despite divisive reactions to KOTFM, voters won't be able to resist the temptation of crowning Gladstone the first Native American Best Actress winner and hearing what's sure to be a moving acceptance speech. Even if we focus entirely on the performances and say those things shouldn't matter, they do. On top of this, the work itself is deserving. Even Stone's probably pulling for her at this point, knowing the backlash she'd inevitably get for winning. The Best Actor race may be close, but this is tighter, with Gladstone poised to make history. And we all know how much the Academy loves that.                

BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Many may have loved the performance, but Colman Domingo is the outlier here with the smallest chance in this field of five. Cooper's been unfairly mocked for silly reasons, but in another year the multi-time nominee would have finally sealed the deal with his memorable portrayal of late composer Leonard Bernstein. Wright's gained a lot of steam for American Fiction, but he peaked a little late, making it hard to picture him pulling this off.

If we're keeping track, Murphy won the Golden Globe, BAFTA and most recently the SAG. Giamatti holds PGA, Critics Choice and Golden Globe victories heading into the show. On paper, the edge is Murphy's since it's highly uncommon to win the SAG and not walk away with Oscar gold. Plus, a tidal wave of Oppenheimer support can only help bolster the chances for the type of biographical performance voters usually embrace. 

In his favor, Giamatti's career high work as a curmudgeonly educator in The Holdovers is probably more accessible than Murphy's icier turn and some may feel he's owed a trophy for the Sideways travesty. But that was decades ago so it'll probably come down to the movies, one of which its studio hung out to dry and is viewed as being more "lightweight" than the juggernaut that is Oppenheimer. Murphy takes it in one of the night's closer races.           

BEST DIRECTOR
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

Even if voters weren't exactly feeling adventurous when narrowing this down, but it's hard to argue against the inclusion of any of these filmmakers on merit. Perhaps more noticeable is who they displaced, as many still wish either Gerwig, Payne, Song or Jefferson could have snuck in. To that end, Glazer and Triet's nominations will be seen as reward enough given who they nudged out to claim their spots. 

There's a lot of respect for what Lanthimos did with Poor Things, but not necessarily enough from the older skewing director's branch to take him over the finish line. Once an early favorite, Scorsese's chances basically evaporated when KOTFM didn't get the rapturous reception most expected. Even those lukewarm on Oppenheimer can't deny Nolan's directorial achievement, or the fact he's probably overdue. This is his to lose, but he won't. 

BEST PICTURE
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

In a year with this obvious a frontrunner the futility of having ten nominees really stands out. Poor Things and American Fiction have done respectably while KOTFM's recent decline is steep enough to actually affect Gladstone's chances. Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives and The Zone of Interest each have their fans, but only Fall seems noteworthy for having that Triet nomination. Barbie's snubs in other categories damaged its viability in the big races, the underrated Maestro got a bad rap all season, and The Holdovers' best shot at gold remains with Randolph and possibly Giamatti.  

Every nominee has either lost momentum or held steady, with one notable exception. Oppenheimer has been running through the competition with shows no signs of slowing down, picking up every precursor while still being discussed and analyzed as if it came out yesterday. Audiences and critics love it and as a historical biography with timely resonance, its win is a foregone conclusion, giving Nolan matching Best Picture and Director statues.    

2024 Oscar Nominations (Reaction and Analysis)

Earlier this morning, the 96th Academy Award nominations were announced live from the Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Los Angles by actors Zazie Beetz and Jack Quaid, definitively ending months of speculation and guessing games. Now we're entering the home stretch, with all roads leading to the big show on March 10th, once again hosted by Jimmy Kimmel. But the key difference this year isn't just an unusually high number of quality films, but a couple of huge critical and commercial hits the mainstream moviegoing public actually turned out for. 

Since the general consensus was always that Barbie and Oppenheimer would do really well, the question became how well, and where the rest of the cards would fall. With ten nominees for Best Picture and an avalanche of precursor awards, it's hard to have many shocks in that category, but those looking for other snubs and surprises definitely found them. Who was robbed? Who miraculously snuck in? As usual, there's plenty to talk about. Let's see how the voters did. Click here for the complete list.

-Oppenheimer leads the pack with 13 nominations, with a decent portion potentially resulting in wins. That's the major story coming out of this, as many titles already earmarked for victories further solidified their frontrunner status. Poor Things and Killers of the Flower Moon followed with 10 nods, with the former even doing a little better than expected, dominating technical categories like Costume, Production Design, Cinematography and Editing. 

-Despite an 8 nomination haul, it's still hard not to look at Barbie's showing as somewhat of a disappointment. Sure, it got in for Picture, Adapted Screenplay (despite that controversial classification), both supporting categories and had two Original Song nominees, but Greta Gerwig (Director) and Margot Robbie's (Actress) snubs had to sting. They're in super competitive fields but Gerwig's absence really highlights the side effect of having ten Best Picture nominees: half those directors get left out.  

-You may as well give Christopher Nolan his Oscar now. Scorsese is probably his closest competition (and the oldest ever nominee in this category at 81) but his momentum stalled. Neither Anatomy of a Fall's Justine Triet, Poor Things' Yorgos Lanthimos or The Zone of Interest's Jonathan Glazer pose much of a threat, but can be proud their movies overperformed. Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) joins Gerwig on the sidelines, which is a shame since I'd switch out almost anyone not named Nolan or Scorsese for them and Maestro's Bradley Cooper. 

-All signs pointed toward DiCaprio being passed over for, if we're being honest, not one of his strongest performances in an unlikable role. Barry Keoghan for Saltburn, The Iron Claw's Zac Efron and Air's Matt Damon were sadly never realistic possibilities, leaving us with the predictably strong five of Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) and Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). This race will come down to Giamatti vs. Murphy and it could get tight. 

-How about that ovation for Lily Gladstone? If that's any indication, Emma Stone's in for a battle and should probably be worried. The Academy rarely resists nominating Annette Bening (Nyad) so it's fair to say Anatomy of a Fall's Sandra Hüller took Robbie's spot. That Carey Mulligan got in for Maestro is good news for a film many wanted to see crash and burn, picking up up 7 nods instead. That indignity was reserved for May December which missed just about everything except Original Screenplay. This leaves Natalie Portman out in the cold despite delivering some of her most compelling work in years. But after the film's lackluster showing at the BAFTA and SAG, the writing was on the wall.      

-Sterling K. Brown's Supporting nod for American Fiction wasn't a total surprise, but it's nice he got in since the category is pretty stacked with Robert De Niro (KOTFM), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie) and Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things) all sliding in. Remember when people were talking about Charles Melton winning this whole thing for May December? Completely snubbed. The Poor Things slot went to Ruffalo instead of Willem Dafoe, but it sure would have been great to see The Holdovers' Dominic Sessa here, as it was starting to feel like a real possibility. Saltburn is burned again as Jacob Elordi is left out. Downey's victory has never seemed more certain.

-In the crowded Supporting Actress category, Emily Blunt scores her first ever nod for Oppenheimer. The Color Purple had a poor showing overall, but the one actress everyone thought could go the distance was Danielle Brooks. America Ferrera is an Oscar nominee for Barbie after months of back and forth speculation about her chances. Like Bening, voters couldn't pass up the opportunity to include her co-star Jodie Foster, who was arguably even more impressive in Nyad. If there's any lingering doubt just how little voters think of May December, even Julianne Moore was ignored. Ferrari's Penelope Cruz, Saltburn's Rosamund Pike, Air's Viola Davis and Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret's Rachel McAdams failed to crack the top five, with the latter being the longest of long shots. The Holdovers' Da’Vine Joy Randolph just cemented her deservedly inevitable win.

-Best Picture is Oppenheimer's to lose at this point, with prestige picks like Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives and The Zone of Interest establishing their status alongside wider known selections like American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, KOTFM and Maestro. As much as the AMPAS likes to tout all its changes, this was business as usual. The only real exclusions here would be the cursed May December, The Color Purple, Saltburn, Society of the Snow, All of Us Strangers and The Iron Claw. But good luck finding any takers to bet on those.

Other Random Observations:

-That Napoleon scored 3 nominations (Production Design, Costume Design, Visual Effects) has to be considered a success given the film's lukewarm reception.

-How about that audience response for Godzilla: Minus One? Almost Gladstone-level.

-91 year-old John Williams picks up his 49th (!) Oscar nomination for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.            

-Am I the only one surprised that Asteroid City didn't get either a cinematography or production design nod? Like all of Wes Anderson's work, it's divisive, but even those who despised it seemed to at least acknowledge the visual achievement. Apparently this just got lost in the shuffle with its earlier release, much like Air.

-The most overlooked snub has to be the exclusion of Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, the award-winning feature on the actor many thought had not only secured its ticket to the ceremony, but should win. The Academy never tires of screwing up this category, but they really hit a new low with this one.    

           

Burning Questions from the 2023 Oscars

Wasn't it weird seeing someone host again?

Were you counting down the seconds until Jimmy Kimmel joked about the slap?

Didn't it take much longer than you expected? 

Actually, didn't his whole monologue take longer than you expected? 

But wasn't it still pretty good overall? 

Can you ever go wrong referencing Encino Man?

Were you worried Kimmel was going to talk about The Fabelmans all night? 

Did I not appreciate his Babylon joke? 

Is it possible he's right about James Cameron not being able to sit through his own movies?

Or enjoying drowning Kate Winslet?

Kimmel sure does like picking on Cameron, doesn't he? 

Do you think Cameron even cares?

Wasn't he spot on on about the Academy rewarding assault with a Best Actor Oscar?

And about everyone embarrassingly going along with it?

Will Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt be forever linked because of...Jungle Cruise? 

If you had to predict who'd present the first Oscar, wouldn't Johnson be an odds on favorite?

Wouldn't it be a bad start to miss Animated Feature considering how obvious that win was? 

Did you remember who won the supporting Oscars last year?

Wasn't the Ke Huy Quan moment every bit as special as we knew it would be?

After seeing Jamie Lee Curtis win, didn't it almost seem inevitable that she had to? 

Then again, was that a tough category to predict or what? 

How about her shout out to Halloween fans? 

Did Angela Bassett look...less than happy?

Were you thinking this was a good indication of how things would go for EEAAO?

Didn't that Diane Warren song sound like something you'd hear at the dentist's office?

Did you get the impression this nomination wouldn't end her 14-time losing streak? 

So, we're introducing movie trailers on the show now?

Doesn't EEAAO totally seem like David Byrne's type of movie?

As a Best Picture nominee, isn't Women Talking just a complete afterthought?

Not a question but...Jennifer Connelly!

Was it really necessary to keep THAT shot from The Whale on the screen while makeup artist Adrien Morot accepted his Oscar? 

Did this just ensure Connelly won't ever agree to return? 

Between Disney and Warner Bros., was this movie studios tribute night? 

When is the Orion Pictures montage?

Wasn't it great to see Gizmo?

And (not the real) Jenny The Donkey?

When will I stop picking Elvis as a winner in the craft categories?

Does this bode poorly for Austin Butler?

International Feature: most locked victory of the night?

Wasn't it funny when Kimmel said this was about the time in the show that people are missing the slapping?

Is Elizabeth Olsen the only actress to have actually gained respect and acting cred from starring in huge franchise movies?  

Were you worried/hoping My Year of Dicks would win Best Animated Short? 

Were you expecting such a stripped down performance from Lady Gaga?

Especially considering the song's from Top Gun: Maverick?

But wasn't it the best one so far? 

Did Hugh Grant call himself a scrotum?

Again, not a question but Babylon should have won for Production Design.

Again, not a question by Babylon should have won for Original Score.

Will that film ever be able to shake the stench of its box office failure?

They're really going to deny the 91-year-old John Williams also?

Is All Quiet cleaning up or what?

Are we back to regretting including all the categories on the show?

Just wasn't Elizabeth Banks' night, was it?

Aren't the Oscars a fitting venue for Cocaine Bear? 

Isn't "We just want to thank our families" the perfect place to cut a winner's speech off? 

Should the FCC prepare for another batch of pointless complaints for Rihanna's performance?

Remember those dark days when Sound was separated into two categories?

Did Kimmel really just joke about Robert Blake being in the In Memoriam montage? 

Wasn't his audience bit fairly quick and painless?

Did you think Chandrabose would sing through all of the "Naatu Naatu" acceptance speech?

Did John Travolta have a tough time getting through that In Memoriam intro or what?

When you saw the first name in the montage did it then become obvious why?

Um, Anne Heche?

Tom Sizemore?

Leslie Jordan?

These Daniels guys sure are characters aren't they? 

Fair to say Will Smith not presenting Best Actress? 

Hoping Kimmel really was joking about stretching the remaining awards out?

Weren't the presenter pairings fairly solid all night ?

About ten seconds before Best Actor was announced, why was I regretting my Austin Butler prediction?

Did the result answer that question? 

Is Brendan Fraser winning the happiest I've been to get a major category wrong?

Were you relieved Cate Blanchett didn't storm the stage in character as Lydia Tár when Michelle Yeoh won?

Given how the night went, how big a shock would it have been if EEAAO lost?

It took 95 years for a sci-fi film to win Best Picture?

Knowing the Academy's tastes, is anyone surprised?

Does it get any better than seeing Ke Huy Quan reunited with Harrison Ford onstage?

Didn't this seem like one of the more competently produced shows in recent years?  

Especially last year's?

Should we just accept that the Oscars feeling and being too long goes with the territory at this point?

Wasn't the "Telecasts Without Incident" gag a good closer?

2023 Oscar Predictions

You hear it all the time. "If so and so wins Best Picture, it's the end of the Oscars." For whatever reason, statements like that seem to have become more prevalent in the past five years, regardless of what's favored to win. But if we can be certain about anything, it's that the Academy Awards have been around for almost a century and will continue to air somewhere no matter how many people complain or the depths to which the telecast's viewership numbers sink. So if frontrunner Everything, Everywhere All at Once has drawn the ire of those deeming it unworthy of 11 nominations, it's important to remember how often we've been down this road, and will be again.

The Oscars will be fine and no one should be spiraling into madness over something they emphatically claim to care nothing about. But that's the catch, isn't it? We do care because it's good to see quality work recognized and rewarded, even while sometimes vehemently disagreeing with the Academy's definition of that. Yes, the telecast itself is often a slog, with too many Best Picture nominees, show catastrophes like on stage assaults, wrong winners being read and favorites getting snubbed, but it's still the Oscars and that always counts for something. Plus it looks like we'll actually have a host this year.

As nice as it would be nice for the actual movies to make headlines for a change, I don't subscribe to the theory that films should rack up trophies for getting people into theaters again or "saving the moviegoing experience." If an insanely popular title like Top Gun: Maverick was to win the big prize, it should do so on creative merit, but we know how this works by now, as a vote can often say more about the tastes and proclivities of who's casting it than the movie itself. The good news is that the Academy rarely nominates garbage, clearing an admittedly low bar other awards bodies frequently don't.

With a much harder field to predict than usual, replicating my 23/24 score from last year feels like an impossibility with this many key races still up in the air, especially Best Actor and Supporting Actress,  which are close enough to be decided by a coin flip. It's worth noting this is the first year in some time (maybe ever) that I've seen the majority of films and performances nominated. That still may not help, but it's nice to be able to chime in with a "should win" for a change. Below are the predictions, along with some depth analysis for the major categories. As usual, I'm reserving the right to change any picks until the start of the show.  

*Predicted Winners 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
All That Breathes
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Close (Belgium)
EO (Poland)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland) 

BEST FILM EDITING
Top Gun: Maverick (Eddie Hamilton)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Mikkel E.G. Nielsen)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Paul Rogers)
Elvis (Jonathan Redmond & Matt Villa)
Tár (Monika Willi)

BEST SOUND
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
All Quiet on the Western Front (Christian M. Goldbeck & Ernestine Hipper)
Elvis (Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy & Bev Dunn)
Babylon (Florencia Martin & Anthony Carlino)
Avatar: The Way of Water (Dylan Cole, Ben Procter & Vanessa Cole)
The Fabelmans (Rick Carter & Karen O’Hara)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Jenny Beavan)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ruth Carter)
Elvis (Catherine Martin)
Babylon (Mary Zophres)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Shirley Kurata)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
All Quiet on the Western Front (Volker Bertelmann)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Carter Burwell)
Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Son Lux)
The Fabelmans (John Williams) 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Lift Me Up, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna & Tems)
"Hold My Hand," Top Gun: Maverick (Lady Gaga & BloodPop)
"Naatu Naatu," RRR (M.M. Keeravaani & Chandrabose)
"Applause," Tell It Like a Woman (Diane Warren)
“This Is a Life,” Everything Everywhere All at Once (Ryan Lott, David Byrne & Mitski) 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
All Quiet on the Western Front 
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
All Quiet on the Western Front (James Friend)
Empire of Light (Roger Deakins)
Bardo (Darius Khondji)
Elvis (Mandy Walker)
Tár (Florian Hoffmeister)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All Quiet on the Western Front (Edward Berger, Ian Stokell & Lesley Paterson)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson)
Livng (Kazuo Ishiguro)
Top Gun: Maverick (Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Peter Craig & Justin Marks)
Women Talking (Sarah Polley) 

Both All Quiet and Top Gun are action oriented, director-driven vehicles more powered by action and visuals than words. Still, the nine nominations accumulated by the former means it can't completely be discounted from pulling off an upset. Glass Onion is a further reach, as Rian Johnson's admittedly well constructed script just doesn't have enough heft or consensus appeal to make it a threat here, especially against these heavier hitting nominees.Voters would go for Living, if only anyone noticed or remembered it's been nominated. So in a surprisingly thin field, it's not hard to see how Sarah Polley's Women Talking would have the edge given the source material's literary pedigree its surprise Best Picture nod. I'll consider this a make-up win for Polley, whose best film, the unnominated Take This Waltz, deserved to clean up over a decade ago.  

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Tár (Todd Field)
The Fabelmans (Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh)
Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Östlund)

This one's far more interesting and competitive, as the category's stacked with all Best Picture nominees. You'd figure this would favor EEAAO, and it does, but none of the others can be counted out, except maybe Triangle of Sadness. Banshees could take this since McDonagh is a stalwart here, having previously earned nominations for In Bruges and Three Billboards, but there's this nagging feeling the film may have peaked too early. Tár is foremost a directing and acting achievement while The Fabelmans could earn serious points for Kushner and Spielberg's ability to shape and mold the latter's life into a cohesive screenplay that does the legendary director's early life justice. But we know where all the momentum is and should brace ourselves for this being one of many EEAAO wins.        

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

What was that about a coin toss? In a category that always carries some degree of unpredictability each year, this race is unusually tight. Whenever it's down to two, there's a good chance anything can happen, including a splitting of votes that allows a deserving underdog like Banshees' Kerry Condon to sneak in, especially given her recent BAFTA victory. And while the temptation's there to dismiss The Whale's Hong Chau, anything's possible. Unfortunately, my preferred choice of Stephanie Hsu seems unlikelier, which is a shame since a strong argument can be made she's the heart and soul of EEAAO rather than co-star Jamie Lee Curtis, who steps way outside the box as quirky IRS auditor Dierdre Beaubierdre. 

Fresh off a SAG win, Curtis has momentum, industry wide likeability and would give a terrific speech that gets people talking the next day. But if it's a career award then Angela Bassett seems just as worthy for her role as Queen Ramonda in Wakanda Forever, making her the first Oscar winner in an MCU film. You could even argue she should already have a trophy for either What's Love Got To Do With It or Strange Days. What this may come down to is a test of EEAAO's potential dominance and an early test of how smitten voters really are with it. Either Curtis carried by the tide or respect for Bassett wins out. Almost too close to call.  

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

The only true lock of the night. All these performances are impressive but there's only one actor here everyone's rooting for. This goes for critics, viewers, voters and probably even a few of his fellow nominees in this category. Watching Ke Huy Quan rush the stage to accept his Oscar go down as one of those special awards moments played on endless repeat for years to come. The only thing capable of topping it should be the speech, since there's little doubt The Goonies and Temple of Doom star will be thanking a certain nominated director sitting in the front row. It says a lot that even those who don't care for EEAAO still agree he's the best part of the film and completely deserves this.

Kerry Condon is more likely to nab supporting honors for Banshees than either Gleeson or Keoghan, who will probably cancel each other out. In a different era, Judd Hirsch would win for sentimental reasons, but as memorable as his Fabelmans performance is, many believe the role is just too small for him to upset. And for my money, David Lynch was even better in the film, with even less screen time. Bryan Tyree Henry's surprise inclusion for Causeway will be looked at as reward enough. No one other than Quan has a shot.  

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett (Tár)
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

A two-horse race if there ever was one. We've gotten to the point where the backlash to the backlash regarding Andrea Riseborough's unusual campaign has actually improved her chances, but there's a big difference in getting the necessary number of votes to be nominated and having enough to actually win. My hunch is she'll fall short, despite giving a career best performance in To Leslie deserving of the attention it's gotten. That Ana de Armas defied the odds in getting nominated for her fearless Marilyn Monroe portrayal in the widely reviled Blonde speaks to her talent and the fact she'll probably be here again. It's not "category fraud" if you place yourself in a tougher race, which is what Michelle Williams did, possibly costing herself a supporting trophy. It's looking like we'll have to wait a little longer to see the five-time nominee referred to as an Academy Award winner, a designation she's deserved for a while now.  

Even while trading precursor wins with EEAAO's Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett was still thought to have this in the bag for her complex tour de force as icy classical conductor Lydia Tár. It's a career high performance made for Oscar, but Yeoh has suddenly surged and now the only question left is if voters think two-time winner Blanchett's been honored enough and are willing to overlook one of the more acclaimed acting turns of recent times by the industry's most respected actress. But it looks like that's exactly what could happen, as the Academy has a chance to anoint a long underappreciated talent in a movie most voters seem to really love. A Blanchett loss may not age that well, but then again, few could claim Yeoh isn't at the least the next strongest choice.   

BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler (Elvis)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Bill Nighy (Living)

It's really hard not to get flashbacks to 2014 Oscars when Michael Keaton's likely comeback win for Birdman was derailed by eventual victor Eddie Redmayne, who reaped the benefits of playing real life figure Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything. It's almost become a long running joke how heavily the Academy favors biographical performances, with Rami Malek's take on Freddie Mercury being the most recent example. This could spell trouble for The Whale's Brendan Fraser considering Austin Butler not only physically transforms himself into the King of Rock and Roll, but actually does a lot of his own singing, a rarity in the musical biopic genre. And despite a recent SAG win and continued momentum, it's possible voters feel honoring one comeback is enough with Fraser's Encino Man co-star Ke Huy Quan. 

Working against Butler is that he'd be one of the youngest winners ever and Fraser's empathic performance as the lonely, morbidly obese Charlie is as undeniable as the actor's personal story. This is the tightest race, making the remaining contenders an afterthought. Farrell's heat is gone, Paul Mescal's turn and film feel too small for the win and Living's Bill Nighy might be the least visible nominee in years. As painful as it is to admit, the chances of them rewarding Fraser has dwindled slightly, making it entirely possible the Academy passes over my favorite male performance of 2022 to fall back on their old habits. Butler's great in a film seen and liked by far more, and has a Best Picture nomination, even if it's still difficult to envision him onstage knowing how the Oscars favor experience over youth. Still, The Whale's lack of prominence or broad support in other categories is a red flag. This is close enough to result in a historic tie, but no one's crazy enough to predict that.              

BEST DIRECTOR
Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)
Todd Field (Tár)
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

That fleeting period when this race seemed up in the air ended, since becoming an inevitability that the Daniels will bring it home. Is an upset possible? Sure, but this is one of the few categories you can comfortably check off without a second thought because it just makes sense. EEAAO is the movie voters like the most and a lot of that can be attributed their direction. Plus, they just won the DGA and have been front and center this whole time, likably promoting the film as if their lives depended on it.

The Daniels somehow losing would be a shock because there's just no reasonable alternative, save for maybe Spielberg, due to his legacy and the fact that The Fabelmans is his best in a long time. Five years ago he'd probably win, but the landscape has drastically changed and a bigger audience for it could have helped. If we're technically talking about the best directed effort then Todd Field triumphs, but it's hard to remember the last time the Academy rewarded that. It's a miracle Triangle of Sadness's Ruben Östlund got in and McDonagh has a better chance at Banshees love in the screenplay category. Mark another one down for EEAAO, as Picture and Director are shaping up to match again.        

BEST PICTURE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking

The year's sleeper, All Quite on the Western Front, has made up a lot of ground, but it winning would be an unprecedented upset at the level of Crash or Moonlight considering how it lacks both directing and editing nods. Avatar: The Way of Water is here because there are ten slots, it's just good enough and made a lot of money. Aside from a strong showing at the BAFTAs, Banshees has been losing steam over the past month, making a victory in any major race a real long shot. If vote tallies were ever revealed to the public, we'd probably all be surprised just how well Elvis did, but it's still all about Butler's performance. 

In another decade The Fabelmans wins Best Picture, as it's just the kind of traditionally well made, coming-of-age story that voters always drooled over. While that's not as true now, it's still one of Spielberg's weirder, more strangely compelling recent works and I'm glad we got it. Tár is brilliant, but a critic's film, too cold and complex for Academy tastes. Top Gun: Maverick is its polar exact opposite, a crowd thrilling spectacle done right that raked in tons of money for the industry, but even its biggest boosters admit it's a superb fast food meal you don't give a second thought to after the credits roll.

Triangle of Sadness would be this year's head-scratching inclusion if not for the presence of Women Talking, which takes a spot that could have belonged to Babylon, The Whale or any other number of films I loved this year that everyone else despised. With PGA, DGA, SAG and WGA guild wins, it's pretty much a cakewalk for EEAAO, which should successfully convert on a decent amount of its 11 nominations, driving the film's most vocal opponents up the wall. They'll be in for a long night.