Burning Questions From The 2025 Oscars

  

Didn't it feel good seeing this start at a reasonable time?

 

Did you expect that optimism would fade later on?

 

Wasn't that L.A. tribute montage incredibly short given the circumstances? 

 

Can you believe they were seriously considering not have any musical performances on the show at all?

 

Was that a rhetorical question?

 

Were you expecting Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande to perform in character?

 

Was that maybe asking a little too much?

 

Okay then, how about Chalamet?

 

Out of all the nominees Conan could insert himself into, wasn't 'The Substance' the best choice?

 

Wasn't his joke about Netflix's constant price hikes the cold, hard truth?

 

Just like the one about Karla Sofía Gascón's publicist?

 

Didn't you know he'd immediately go there with the Gascón jabs?

 

And why shouldn't he?

 

Can you believe she actually attended? 

 

A sand worm playing the piano?

 

While the musical number was funny, did you think "I Won't Waste Time" was a promise Conan wouldn't be able to keep?

 

And wasn't that kind of the song's point?

 

With the exception of Chalamet's ultrasound, didn't those celebrity headshots resemble not so embarrassing high school yearbook photos?

 

How about that Adam Sandler bit? 

 

Did Robert Downey Jr. ramble or what? 

 

Are they really not showing any film clips of the nominees...again? 

 

Were you worried they'd present every category like that?

 

With the Culkin win, was everyone officially guaranteed one right on their ballots?

 

Sort of like he and his wife are officially guaranteed two more kids?

 

So, they're showing clips after all?

 

Did anyone correctly predict Animated Short?

 

In any year?

 

Ever? 

 

Didn't the costume nominees presentation take up a lot of time?

 

What would Conan say about that?

 

Wasn't Nick Offerman the ideal choice for announcer?  

 

Were you thinking that Original Screenplay win was a promising early sign for 'Anora?'    

 

Or were you thinking that Adapted Screenplay win was a promising early sign for 'Conclave?'

 

Weren't June Squibb and Scarlett Johansson an inspired pairing? 

 

Did Squibb display the best comedic timing of any presenter?

 

In the event of an Adrien Brody win, wouldn't it be better to have Halle Berry announce Best Actor?

 

Is isn't absurd how Margaret Qualley had to be a part of the James Bond tribute to get onto the Oscars?

 

So, they decided to go all in on the musical performances anyway?

'Cinemastreams?'

 

Was that the first time we've seen Darryl Hannah in over a decade?

 

Did that editing loss seal 'Conclave's' fate? 

 

Why were they not showing clips for the Supporting Actor and Actress nominees?

 

When Zoe won were you wondering if she'd mention Karla Sofía Gascón? 

 

If you still wanted a career after this, would you?

 

Was that Rolex commercial better than just about any Oscar montage?

 

Mick Jagger?!

 

Isn't he unsurprisingly great at this whole presenting thing?

 

Did you think the 16th time would be the charm for Diane Warren? 

 

Did anyone correctly predict Documentary Short?

 

In any year?

 

Ever?

 

Am I in shock that I actually did?

 

Would "guessed" be a more accurate word than "predicted" in this instance?

 

Miles Teller and Miley Cyrus?

 

Are they Conan's version of Letterman's Oprah and Uma?

 

Was Conan's 'Anora' joke about "standing up to a powerful Russian" the line of the night?  

 

Am I the only one perplexed at the level of online hate directed toward Rachel Zegler?

 

Doesn't that 'Better Man' movie look ridiculous? 

 

Did my luck run out with Live-Action Short?

 

Didn't everyone's?

 

Wasn't that a classy tribute to Gene Hackman from Morgan Freeman? 

 

Wasn't it jarring to see how many big names we lost over the past year?

 

And surreal seeing Shelley Duvall, David Lynch, James Earl Jones and Gene Hackman listed consecutively at the end of the montage?

 

Did you yell "Oh no, not again!" when you realized they excluded Michelle Trachtenberg?

 

How can they so royally screw this up every year?

 

Are they trying to upset viewers?

 

Was 'I'm Still Here' winning Best International Feature the ultimate slap in the face to 'Emilia Pérez?'

 

Wasn't that sort of expected? 

 

Does it get any better than Mark Hamill coming out to John Williams?

 

Was Best Actor the most suspenseful award of the night? 

 

Did you breathe a sigh of relief or disappointment when Adrien Brody won? 

 

Was Cillian Murphy worried Brody would try to kiss him?

 

Did Brody's gum tossing top his infamous Halle Berry moment? 

 

Was his speech longer than 'The Brutalist?'

 

Did you notice Tarantino nodding and clapping with approval when Sean Baker talked about the importance of preserving the theatrical experience?

 

Was he preaching to the choir with that one? 

 

After seeing the poorly chosen Demi Moore clip, were you worried she may not have this in the bag after all? 

 

Did 'Anora''s screenplay, editing and directing wins forecast Mikey taking this? 

 

Didn't she give a really nice speech?

 

Though she hid it well, how disappointed must Demi be right now? 

 

Once Best Picture rolled around, wasn't 'Anora' winning inevitable?

 

But did you really expect it to clean up like it did?

 

Can Conan O' Brien do this again?

 

At this point, should any host just chalk it up as a victory they made it through the show without getting slapped? 

2025 Oscar Predictions

Lately, there's been this split inside the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, as the old guard continues to clash with an influx of newer members who changed the game when preferential balloting went into effect in 2009. While the former still cling to traditionalist views of what an Oscar winner should look and feel like, a younger, more diverse voting body has risen up, with some surprising results. 

Rarely has the playing field seemed as fractured as this year, as competing definitions of what a Best Picture is comes to a head an hour earlier Sunday when Conan O'Brien hosts the show. And as recent victors like Parasite, Nomadland, Coda and Everything Everywhere All At Once have proven, bigger doesn't always equal better for voters, with gigantic, high grossing theatrical epics becoming extinct in the streaming era. In retrospect, last year's "Barbenheimer" phenomenon was an anomaly, not just in terms of critical and commercial success, but in generating the kind of water cooler buzz that leads to renewed Oscar interest. 

Wicked appeared to be taking that route until abruptly fading from the conversation despite its 10 nomination haul. Instead, the headline surrounding this 87th Academy Awards is scandal, with former frontrunner Emilia Pérez's chances going up in smoke after a flurry of offensive tweets resurfaced from Best Actress nominee Karla Sofía Gascón. Now, it faces the very real possibility of being shut out of all 13 categories for which its nominated. 

Suddenly, we're left with a potential Conclave vs. Anora showdown when the dramatic papal thriller faces off against a more zeitgeisty vision that could better represent where modern filmmaking's headed. Whether it gets the general public to care about the show is almost beside the point since this almost century old institution isn't going anywhere, regardless of what wins or how much doomsayers complain. But we are set for a really tight one on Sunday. Below are my predictions, along with an analysis of the major categories.                

 

*Predicted Winners 

ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot

ANIMATED SHORT
Beautiful Men
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Magic Candies
Wander to Wonder
Yuck!

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
Sugarcane 

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Death By Numbers
I Am Ready, Warden
Incident
Instruments of a Beating Heart
The Only Girl in the Orchestra

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
I'm Still Here (Brazil)
The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)
Emilia Perez (France)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Flow (Latvia)

LIVE ACTION SHORT 
A Lien
Anuja
I'm Not a Robot
The Last Ranger
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent 

FILM EDITING
Anora (Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (David Jancso)
Conclave (Nick Emerson)
Emilia Pérez (Juliette Welfling)
Wicked (Myron Kerstein)

SOUND
A Complete Unknown (Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey & David Giammarco)
Dune: Part Two (Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett & Doug Hemphill)
Emilia Pérez (Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz & Niels Barletta)
Wicked (Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson & John Marquis)
The Wild Robot (Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo & Leff Lefferts)

PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist (Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Patricia Cuccia)
Conclave (Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Cynthia Sleiter)
Dune: Part Two (Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau)
Nosferatu (Production Design: Craig Lathrop; Set Decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová)
Wicked (Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales)

COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown (Arianne Phillips)
Conclave (Lisy Christl)
Gladiator II (Janty Yates & Dave Crossman)
Nosferatu (Linda Muir)
Wicked (Paul Tazewell)

ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist (Daniel Blumberg)
Conclave (Volker Bertelmann)
Emilia Pérez (Clément Ducol and Camille)
Wicked (John Powell and Stephen Schwartz)
The Wild Robot (Kris Bowers)

ORIGINAL SONG
"El Mal," Emilia Pérez (Clément Ducol, Camille & Jacques Audiard)
"The Journey," The Six Triple Eight (Diane Warren)
"Like a Bird," Sing Sing (Abraham Alexander & Adrian Quesada)
"Mi Camino," Emilia Pérez (Camille & Clément Ducol)
“Never Too Late,” Elton John: Never Too Late (Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt & Bernie Taupin)

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man (Mike Marino, David Presto & Crystal Jurado)
Emilia Pérez (Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier & Jean-Christophe Spadaccini)
Nosferatu (David White, Traci Loader and Suzanne Stokes-Munton)
The Substance (Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli)
Wicked (Frances Hannon, Laura Blount and Sarah Nuth)

VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus (Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin & Shane Mahan)
Better Man (Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft & Peter Stubbs)
Dune: Part Two (Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe & Gerd Nefzer)
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story & Rodney Burke)
Wicked (Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk and Paul Corbould)

CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist (Lol Crawley)
Dune: Part Two (Greig Fraser)
Emilia Pérez (Paul Guilhaume)
Maria (Ed Lachman)
Nosferatu (Jarin Blaschke)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown (James Mangold, Jay Cocks)
Conclave (Peter Straughan)
Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard; In collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius & Nicolas Livecchi)
Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes)
Sing Sing (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John "Divine G" Whitfield)

A month or two ago, Audiard's script for Emilia Pérez would have been a serious threat in this category, or at least leading Nickel Boys and Sing Sing. Now it's in dead last, with all the controversy shining an even bigger spotlight on what dissenters already thought was the film's weakest aspect. Now, A Complete Unknown has made up about as much ground as Pérez lost, but most are more enamored with Chalamet's take on Dylan than Mangold and Cocks' script. That leaves the still very well regarded Conclave, which almost has to win this with Edward Burger's direction going unnominated and the Actor and Picture outcomes still in doubt. Its recent SAG and BAFTA trophies only help.       

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora (Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold)
A Real Pain (Jesse Eisenberg)
September 5 (Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Co-Written by Alex David)
The Substance (Coralie Fargeat)

It's a surprise enough voters even knew about September 5 so its inclusion here is probably reward enough. A Real Pain has a great chance, but with only one other nod to its name, it may not be significant enough to topple three strong Best Picture contenders. If it's between Anora, The Brutalist and The Substance, this outcome largely depends on what happens in the bigger, more consequential races. Given the roll Anora's on and that the latter two will likely be recognized elsewhere, you have to figure this goes to WGA winner Sean Baker, who's the only nominee equally respected as both a writer and director. Whether or not Anora takes home the big one, voters will want to reward him here.        

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
Ariana Grande (Wicked)
Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

With a frontrunner who's been forced to distance herself from the very film she's nominated for, the discussion revolves around how much damage has been done to Zoe Saldaña. But there's good news. While not quite the lock she was a month ago, even Pérez's most vehement haters would admit her performance is far and away the best thing in it. So what it really comes down to is whether anyone can beat her. 

Rossellini has two minutes of screen time in Conclave, most need to be reminded The Brutalist's Jones was nominated, and as much love as A Complete Unknown's Monica Barbaro has gotten, a win her first time out is a stretch. That leaves us with Ariana Grande, who's deserving, but Wicked's stalled campaign makes it hard to imagine voters favoring her, even under these circumstances. If anything, the Academy will be more inclined to reward Saldaña for graciously holding it together throughout the entire P.R. disaster. With Globe, BAFTA and SAG wins under her belt, she's got this.               

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov (Anora)
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Anora's Yura Borisov earned a surprise, but well deserved nod that's hopefully just the start for him. Norton represents yet another endorsement for A Complete Unknown, but he's a real longshot. Though many think Guy Pearce should be getting even more attention for his role as industrialist Harrison Lee Van Buren in The Brutalist, he's a lot less likely than Adrien Brody to be the acting win that polarizing film picks up. 

So good as young Trump's slimy mentor Roy Cohn in The Apprentice, Jeremy Strong taking this feels completely justified, if not for the fact his Succession costar Culkin already has it locked up for his manic portrayal of rambunctious, grief ridden cousin Benji Kaplan in A Real Pain. While the Supporting Actress race is known for its upsets, this category isn't, and should be the only foregone conclusion of the night. Put your money on Culkin, who won every precursor in sight and seems poised to deliver another wildly entertaining acceptance speech.   

ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)
Mikey Madison (Anora)
Demi Moore (The Substance)
Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)

Gascón never had much of a chance at pulling this off anyway given how her lead category placement was called into question from the get-go, with many still believing she and Saldaña should have swapped places. But none of that matters now, as her shot at becoming the first openly trans actress to win an Academy Award has evaporated. But what it does is create an opening for beloved underdog Fernanda Torres to capture some of those international votes for her Golden Globe winning performance in I'm Still Here, which no one dislikes.

Erivo seemed much stronger before Wicked fizzled, erasing her from contention and leaving Mikey Madison and Demi Moore to battle it out in a race that's narrowed considerably in recent weeks as Anora's gained momentum. Madison's surprise BAFTA win definitely helped and a potential Best Picture victory could seal this since her performance and the film are nearly inseparable. But SAG and Globe losses to Moore, combined with her lower visibility, could hurt. Voters have also have a history of passing over young ingenues by rationalizing how much "time" they still have to win Oscars.

It's less what Madison lacks than everything Moore brings, which is immense popularity and a narrative that overcomes any ambivalence toward endorsing a graphic body horror film. And who among the Academy won't want to hear another inspiring acceptance speech about the double standards facing  women in Hollywood? Or reward an actress who thought she was finished, only to pour all those fears and insecurities into the defining role of her forty year career? Comeback stories don't get much bigger than this.                     

ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

In a sparser than usual field, I'd jump out of my seat if Sebastian Stan won for The Apprentice, but it's just not in the cards. And neither is a victory for Sing Sing's Colman Domingo or Conclave's Ralph Fiennes, who's slipped despite Conclave recently regaining ground. Besides giving the category's most popular performance, Chalamet managed to win over many doubters who assumed he couldn't play a believable Bob Dylan and does his own singing (something previous winners like Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody can't claim). The surprise SAG victory indicates passionate support, even if it came after Oscar voting already ended. 

Whether or not playing a real life figure still carries the same currency it once did, Chalamet would be the youngest Best Actor winner ever at 29, breaking the record set by fellow nominee Adrien Brody over twenty years earlier in The Pianist. And we'll see if voters can justify holding off on crowning Chalamet, who many believe will be back here again soon. But whatever hesitation there is in recognizing Mikey Madison for that reason, just double it and ask Elvis' Austin Butler how things went for him against Brendan Fraser. As divisive as it is, The Brutalist can't go home empty handed and Brody's suffering performance as Hungarian-Jewish architect and Holocaust survivor László Tóth could be how voters honor it, making him a two-time Oscar winner. Still, this race is a coin flip.                

DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)
Sean Baker (Anora)
Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

Voters might be feeling a twinge of remorse that they can't substitute Conclave's Edward Burger, Nickel Boys' RaMell Ross, or Dune: Part Two's Denis Villeneuve in for Audiard, but the ship already sailed. A Complete Unknown will be remembered and celebrated for a while to come, but most agree it won't necessarily be for Mangold's direction. The Substance making it this far is a real credit to the talents of writer/director Fargeat, but a Best Actress and Makeup win is probably its ceiling. 

A possible Picture/Director split is always on everyone's minds when this year's no exception. Almost equally strong cases can be made for Brady Corbet and Sean Baker, but Baker has the slight edge having picked up that coveted DGA, an almost foolproof indicator that the Oscar's his. And if The Brutalist is a rough sit for voters, the more warmly embraced Anora has been held up as the ultimate signifier of Baker's skills. And him somehow feeling overdue with barely ten films behind him has to be seen as a very positive sign.         

BEST PICTURE
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I'm Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked

Emilia Pérez is finished, and while it's still leagues better than the atrocity that's been described, the film's excessive nomination tally and unfortunate scandal put a target on its back. Wicked peaked months ago and will occupy a proverbial blockbuster slot alongside Dune: Part Two, with voters awaiting their final installments before awarding either.

The competition is too stiff for I'm Still Here and Nickel Boys, neither of which have a director nod or equally meaningful notice that indicates a break through. The Substance's genre starts factoring in here since there's very little chance the Academy would crown a horror film with its top prize. A Complete Unknown's late surge is impressive, but more likely to result in a win for Chalamet than the movie as a whole. 

The Brutalist was looking much better a couple of weeks ago and it's hard to imagine a cerebral critics pick running away with this, especially considering how a similarly themed and executed masterpiece like There Will Be Blood couldn't even manage to pull it off. Conclave has a BAFTA and just recently got the SAG boost, but Berger's lack of a directing nod is worrisome.

While there's some precedent for overcoming the director hurdle (ask Ben Affleck), what can't be overcome is Anora winning both the PGA and DGA, making its path to gold a whole lot easier. Of those that have, only Brokeback Mountain, La La Land and 1917 failed to win Best Picture, with their losses documented as the most shocking in Oscar history. This doesn't feel like one of those races. Anora checks all the important boxes, solidifying it as the safer bet.                

2025 Oscar Nominations (Reaction and Analysis)

After an understandable delay and a couple of reschedulings, the 97th annual Academy Award nominations were announced live this morning by actors Rachel Sennott and Bowen Yang from the Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Beverly Hills. The results largely lined up with what was anticipated, save for a few surprises and one huge shock. What's most predictable about these is how the wealth is always spread among two or three films, leaving the rest to fight for scraps, despite everything usually hovering around the same level of quality. And without a big frontrunner like Oppenheimer, that was only magnified this year. 

Of course, there are always complaints about how certain fan favorites were overlooked, leaving us to determine what exactly constitutes a "snub." While those definitions will vary based on who you ask, there were still some noteworthy developments as we approach the Academy's first live steaming telecast on March 2 hosted by Conan O' Brien. Now with a little over a month left to go, we at least know a little more about where voters' heads are at, as scary as that prospect seems. Below are all the important talking points. Click here for the complete list of nominees.

-13 nominations for Emilia Pérez is a bit much, and if that's coming from someone who really liked the film, you can just imagine other reactions to Jacques Audiard's crime musical tying Oppenheimer's nomination haul. While it probably won't come anywhere close to that win total, it could be the rare case where a movie's increased profile is a detriment, causing detractors to dig their heels in even more.  

-Wicked and The Brutalist followed with 10 nods a piece, shattering whatever expectations that the latter would be too tough or cerebral a sit for voters. Of course we're assuming they actually watched it. To no one's surprise, Wicked cleaned up in all the technical categories such as costume, visual effects, production design, sound, editing and makeup. 

-The glaring omission of Conclave's Edward Berger in the director category all but confirms suspicions it's not going the distance, especially with Pérez's Audiard and The Brutalist's Brady Corbet in the mix. It's also reasonable to speculate James Mangold took Berger's spot, further solidifying voters' love for A Complete Unknown, which overperformed across the board. Any lingering worries about genre bias toward The Substance was just squashed with Coralie Fargeat's inclusion here and in Best Original Screenplay and Picture.

-The Substance's, Demi Moore is sitting in a really favorable position with a strong narrative to win, even as Mickey Madison still remains a possible victor for her work in Sean Baker's Anora. Despite lead/supporting category confusion, Pérez's Karla Sofia Gascón becomes Oscars' first openly trans Best Actress nominee while the field is rounded out with Wicked's Cynthia Erivo and I'm Still Here's Golden Globe winner Fernanda Torres, who's inclusion came at the expense of Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) and Amy Adams (Nightbitch). Zendaya was always a longshot for Challengers, and though it would have be downright surreal to utter the words "Oscar nominee Pamela Anderson" for The Last Showgirl, a bigger surprise comes in another category.

-Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice! Oddsmakers gave him a much better chance at getting in for his other Globe-nominated performance in A Different Man, but the audible gasp in the room when his name was announced for that film said it all. Easily the nomination of the morning, and one of the most deserved, with the Academy proving they can get it right. Adrien Brody has a good chance at becoming a two-time Oscar winner for The Brutalist, as he competes with Conclave's Ralph Fiennes, Timothée Chalamet's take on Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown and Sing Sing's Colman Domingo. Queer's Daniel Craig is left out.

-A groundswell of support for the film helps lift A Complete Unknown's Monica Barbaro to a Supporting Actress nomination for her performance as Joan Baez in one of the mornings more surprising inclusions. Selena Gomez's absence wasn't entirely unpredictable, with many voters likely thinking her Pérez co-star Zoe Saldaña has this in the bag anyway. Wicked's Ariana Grande will be her closest competition while Conclave's Isabella Rossellini nabs the last spot with the smallest role here. The obvious exclsuion is Margaret Qualley for The Substance, and while we suspected this could happen, it's still somewhat surprising after seeing how well the film fared overall. 

-Denzel (Gladiator II) and Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) are the only perceived oversights in a Supporting Actor category that sees Jeremy Strong justifiably getting his due for his complex turn as Donald Trump's despicable mentor Roy Cohn in The Apprentice. Joining him is Anora breakout Yura Borisov, A Complete Unknown's Ed Norton and The Brutalist's Guy Pearce, who serves as the latest indicator this divisive film is gaining traction. As basically the surest lock in any race right now, it's Kieran Culkin's to lose for A Real Pain.    

-With Best Picture shaping up to be a two movie battle between Emilia Pérez and The Brutalist, it seemed as if decided Dune: Part Two had a guaranteed spot months ago, if only out of pure obligation. Wicked, Conclave and Anora were all no brainers while the Nickel Boys and Brazil's adored International submission, I'm Still Here occupy underdog slots that many thought would go to A Real Pain and Sing Sing. Beating the odds, The Substance becomes one of the very few sci-fi/horror films to get nominated for the big prize. And riding its sudden wave of momentum, A Complete Unknown can now lay claim to matching Director and Picture nominations.

Other Random Observations:

-Nosferatu did surprisingly well, picking up nods for costume, makeup, production design and cinematography. More than most expected.

-Composers Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross are overlooked for their pulsating Challengers score, which many thought was the movie's best chance at a nomination.

-Despite its Original Screenplay nod and inevitable Kieran Culkin win, A Real Pain may go down as one of those critics' picks that just couldn't gain a foothold with voters in major categories, which might actually be a compliment.

-The Best Original Song category has failed to drum up interest in recent years and the decision not to have nominated songs performed on the show only reinforces that. And considering one of the two from Emilia Pérez is sung by a major recording artist co-starring in the film, this feels like even more of a missed opportunity than usual.

-Documentaries haven't fared much better, as a category that once generated a decent amount of excitement with eclectic selections is now almost entirely comprised of films examining social issues and nothing else. There's no question those should be there, but remember Searching For Sugar Man? It probably wouldn't make the cut now, though they did find room this year for Elton John's Never Too Late. If 2023's snub of Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie didn't reveal voters' aversion to entertainment biographies, their latest exclusion of Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story may have confirmed it. 

Burning Questions from the 2024 Oscars

 

 

Are we tired of Oscar hosts inserting themselves into clips of the Best Picture nominees?

Were you at least relieved it was just one?

Wasn't Jimmy Kimmel right that the show started already running behind?

Were you counting down the minutes until we got a joke about the length of this year's Best Picture nominees?

Or a De Niro age gap joke?

Or how about Robert Downey Jr.'s drug addiction?

Didn't RDJ less than thrilled?

Can you really blame him?

Was Messi the dog the best part of Kimmel's monologue? 

Or was it his shot at Katie Britt's State of the Union response?

Isn't it a great idea to finally have a Casting Oscar? 

When you saw the previous Supporting Actress winners come out on the stage were you thinking, "Oh no not this again?"

Were each of those introductions as long as an entire acceptance speech?

Did that just ruin any plans of the show not going over time?

Wouldn't it be more beneficial to show a clip from each nominee?

Would that have felt like an even bigger waste of time if Da'Vine Joy Randolph somehow didn't win?

 

Was that David Allan Grier? 

 

Didn't you just know Myazaki wouldn't show up?

 

Do voters even care?

 

Wasn't it great that the orchestra played that instrumental version of P.I.M.P. when Anatomy of a Fall won Original Screenplay?

 

Can you imagine if The Holdovers actually won that in light of the recent plagiarism allegations?

 

Wasn't that a solid speech from Cord Jefferson?

 

Did Billie Eilish's "What Was I Made For?" performance make you more certain it would win Best Song?

 

Is Michael Keaton back to collect his stolen Oscar for Birdman?

 

Or stolen nomination for The Founder?

 

After wins for Makeup, Costume and Production Design, wasn't it clear Poor Things would be cleaning up?

 

Was Lily Gladstone starting to get worried? 

 

Is there anything John Cena won't do?

 

Between him, The Rock and Bad Bunny, has WWE fully taken over this show? 

 

Wasn't Blunt and Gosling's "Barbenheimer" bit pretty funny?

 

Shouldn't there be a Stunt Oscar already?

 

Did you remember that Tim Robbins won Best Supporting Actor for Mystic River?

 

Did he jump the gun a bit in calling De Niro's Flower Moon performance Oscar-winning?

 

Didn't it take longer than you expected for Oppenheimer's first two wins?

Is there any audience member better at playing along with these bits than Spielberg? 

 

Weren't you relieved they didn't start playing off 20 Days in Mariupol director Mstyslav Chernov during his acceptance speech?

 

Are we finally getting that Twins sequel? 

 

Wasn't that an awesome Batman bit with Schwarzenegger, DeVito and Keaton? 

 

Were the Godzilla Minus One winners holding more Oscars or Godzilla figures?

 

Wes Anderson wins his first Oscar but isn't there?

 

Were the Best Song performances getting shorter and shorter?

 

Is that really something to complain about? 

 

How about John Mulaney's Field of Dreams dissection?

 

Did that make you want to see the movie again right now?

 

Should he host this show next year?

 

For his sake, do you hope he turns it down?    

 

How wild was Gosling's "I'm Just Ken" performance?

Didn't we all just know it would be? 

 

For just a second there, did you consider John Williams could win his sixth Oscar at age 92?

Is Billie Eilish the only one who didn't see that win coming? 

 

Didn't the earlier start time really, really help this show?  

 

Did you almost forget they still have to get to the In Memorium segment?

 

Were you curious how they'd screw it up this year?

 

Didn't we lose a lot of big names? 

 

How surreal was it to see Paul Reubens and Matthew Perry were two of them? 

What was with that huge, unreadable block of names they just threw up there? 

And the nonsensical camera angles?

Are they ever going to get this thing right?

Lance Reddick?

Treat Williams?

 

Wasn't that a great group of former Best Actor winners they picked as presenters? 

 

Can we please get Nicolas Cage nominated for something again soon? 

 

Wasn't it a pretty safe bet Spielberg would present Best Director?

 

Was it an even safer one that Christopher Nolan would win?

 

Isn't it weird that Jessica Lange won her Best Actress Oscar for the otherwise completely forgettable Blue Sky?

 

How about the look of utter shock and disbelief on Stone's face when her name was read?  

Did everyone's prediction scores take a nosedive after that?

Was all the love for Poor Things in other categories a good indication this could happen for her?

 

Did you think that Trump tweet was just a joke at first?

 

Can anyone really be surprised it was real? 

 

Could Al Pacino have read the Best Picture winner any more casually?  

Shouldn't we just be grateful the correct winner was announced? 

Well, that whole show was relatively painless, wasn't it?

 

For all the criticism Kimmel gets, is there really anyone else that audience would be able to tolerate? 

Wasn't it nice to have this telecast end on the same date it began for a change? 

2024 Oscar Predictions

Most years, Academy voters can either be relied on to spread the wealth among a variety of different films in many categories or put their energy behind one title that runs the table, sweeping nearly everything. Think Ben-Hur, Titanic and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Whether Oppenheimer joins that exclusive club remains to be seen, but it's sure shaping up that way, as it lays claim to a whopping thirteen nominations. 

Converting even half of those nods into wins would still make Sunday's 96th Oscars telecast a fairly predictable one, leaving little room for the surprises we hope for. Or if you're a more casual follower, plummeting ratings indicate you may not be watching anyway. But despite constant rumblings the ceremony could follow the SAG Awards to a streamer, it'll be staying on ABC for now with Jimmy Kimmel back hosting at a mercifully earlier start time.

In an effort to attract more eyeballs, Barbie will be all over the screen for promotional purposes, at least if commercials and ads are any indication. Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie's snubs notwithstanding, eight noms is still an impressive haul that can be credited to what they brought to material no one thought could work. Voters will ensure it picks up something, but the night really revolves around Oppenheimer's foreseeable wins and how the show's producers can overcome any potential monotony accompanying that. On paper, Best Actor and Actress appear the least locked, but even the tightness of those races has widened in recent weeks, which could be good news for fans finalizing their picks. My predictions are below, along with an in depth analysis of the major categories.           

*Predicted Winners 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Io Capitano (Italy)
Perfect Days (Japan)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
The Teachers' Lounge (Germany)
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom) 

BEST FILM EDITING
Anatomy of a Fall (Laurent Sénéchal)
The Holdovers (Kevin Tent)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)
Poor Things (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)

BEST SOUND
The Creator (Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich & Dean Zupancic)
Maestro (Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich & Dean Zupancic)
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One (Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon & Mark Taylor)
Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo & Kevin O’Connell)
The Zone of Interest (Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Barbie (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Jack Fisk and Adam Willis)
Napoleon (Arthur Max & Elli Griff)
Oppenheimer (Ruth De Jong & Claire Kaufman)
Poor Things (Shona Heath, James Price & Szusza Mihalek)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West)
Napoleon (David Crossman & Janty Yates)
Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick)
Poor Things (Holly Waddington)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
American Fiction (Laura Karpman)
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (John Williams)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)
Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)
Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"It Never Went Away," American Symphony (Jon Baptiste & Dan Wilson)
"I'm Just Ken," Barbie (Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt)
"What Was I Made For?" Barbie (Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell)
"The Fire Inside Me," Flamin' Hot (Diane Warren)
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” Killers of the Flower Moon (Scott George)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Golda (Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby & Ashra Kelly-Blue)
Maestro (Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou & Lori McCoy-Bell)
Oppenheimer (Luisa Abel)
Poor Things (Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier & Josh Weston)
Society of the Snow (Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí & Montse Ribé)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Creator (Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts & Neil Corbould)
Godzilla: Minus One (Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi & Tatsuji Nojima)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams & Theo Bialek)
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One (Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland & Neil Corbould)
Napoleon (Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco & Neil Corbould)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
El Conde (Edward Lachman)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto)
Maestro (Matthew Libatique)
Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)
Poor Things (Robbie Ryan)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)
Barbie (Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig)
Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)

This is a somewhat challenging race to predict since it's one the few Oppenheimer might not win. Already poised to take home at least a few technical awards, Poor Things is riding high right now, making it easy to imagine voters rewarding Tony McNamara for working wonders with Alasdair Gray's 1992 novel. In an open field like this, The Zone of Interest can't be discounted, either for its subject matter or how Jonathan Glazer handled a tricky adaptation. 

Three-time screenplay nominee Gerwig (along with co-writer Noah Baumbach) being recognized after all isn't outside the realm of possibility since this seems like an ideal place to honor Barbie. But confusion over its category placement landed it in a far more competitive race that's likely to be won by Cord Jefferson. His timely, of the moment take on Percival Everett's 2001 novel culturally resonates in a way its closest competitors don't. It also holds a BAFTA win over Oppenheimer, which isn't nothing.      

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet, Arthur Harari)
The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
Maestro (Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer)
May December (Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik)
Past Lives (Celine Song)

Barbie's exclusion opened this race up a little more while May December makes its only Oscar appearance alongside Cooper's more Academy-friendly Maestro. But in the case of both, writing wouldn't be singled out as their key strength, or at least enough of one to pull off a win. Past Lives risks getting lost in the shuffle while David Hemingson's classically constructed screenplay for The Holdovers was a sure bet until Anatomy of a Fall won this award at BAFTA and the Globes, emerging as the new favorite. 

Fall's other nominations also indicate broader support, with Triet and Harari's script appealing to voters' sense of storytelling efficiency. The Holdovers can still pull this off, but it may have stood a slightly better chance if director Alexander Payne was credited as a co-writer alongside Hemingson since everything's a popularity contest. And that it feels like a literary adaptation could work for or against its chances of voters recognizing its originality.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
America Ferrara (Barbie)
Jodie Foster (Nyad)
Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Blunt's first ever nod for Oppenheimer seems perplexing until you realize overall appreciation for the film carried her through. Danielle Brooks and Jodie Foster are in better positions, even as their respective films were overlooked in enough key categories that they've sort of become afterthoughts. 

While America Ferrera's reward will have to be impressively making the cut for Barbie, Da'Vine Randolph is the lockiest of locks for her performance as grieving Barton Academy cafeteria manager Mary Lamb in The Holdovers. It's hard to think of a more universally praised turn from anyone all year. In a category known for surprises, we won't be getting any here.           

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Voters liked Barbie's Gosling more than enough to find a spot for him but it's unlikely he has enough support to go further for his wildly subversive and entertaining take on Ken. It was always a coin flip between Poor Things co-stars Mark Ruffalo and Willem Dafoe, but it's Stone's movie, leaving the chosen Ruffalo as the odd man out in a crowded category. 

With KOTFM having lost momentum, the likelihood of De Niro upsetting for his turn as villainous politico William "King" Hale follows suit. Most agree it's great to see him in a role like this again, while also acknowledging there isn't anything particularly special about the performance. 

There's been nothing but unanimous praise for Sterling K. Brown's work in American Fiction but he's unfortunately pitted against an unstoppable Robert Downey Jr. who's been collecting trophies all season as two-faced Oppenheimer nemesis Lewis Strauss. Besides him greatly contributing the year's most honored film, it's being viewed as a post-Marvel reminder of what he's always done best. One of the biggest locks of the night.

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening (Nyad)
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
Emma Stone (Poor Things)

Acting legend Annette Bening has never won an Oscar, but as beloved as the five-time nominee is by voters, it won't be happening this year for her physically taxing performance as a 60-year-old distance swimmer in Nyad. And it's a shame Netflix didn't push harder since it's exactly the kind of part that could have done it for her. Mulligan (who should have won for 2020's Promising Young Woman) is sensational in Maestro, but with many still feeling it's Cooper's film, this is an uphill battle. She'll be back. 

If there's a spoiler, it'll be Hüller for Anatomy of a Fall given the Academy's large European contingent and overall respect shown to that film with its other nods. If the top two split votes, she's still a long shot, but no more of an impossibility than Olivia Colman was in 2018 when she upset Glenn Close.

With Critics Choice, BAFTA and Golden Globe wins, Stone's still sitting pretty right now, but Gladstone's arguably better situated, having also locked up a Golden Globe in addition to her PGA and SAG victories. But Stone already having Supporting Oscar shouldn't really harm her chances and the fact she's playing a resurrected nymphomaniac isn't viewed as much of an obstacle either, with most  focused on how brilliantly she did it. 

Despite divisive reactions to KOTFM, voters won't be able to resist the temptation of crowning Gladstone the first Native American Best Actress winner and hearing what's sure to be a moving acceptance speech. Even if we focus entirely on the performances and say those things shouldn't matter, they do. On top of this, the work itself is deserving. Even Stone's probably pulling for her at this point, knowing the backlash she'd inevitably get for winning. The Best Actor race may be close, but this is tighter, with Gladstone poised to make history. And we all know how much the Academy loves that.                

BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Many may have loved the performance, but Colman Domingo is the outlier here with the smallest chance in this field of five. Cooper's been unfairly mocked for silly reasons, but in another year the multi-time nominee would have finally sealed the deal with his memorable portrayal of late composer Leonard Bernstein. Wright's gained a lot of steam for American Fiction, but he peaked a little late, making it hard to picture him pulling this off.

If we're keeping track, Murphy won the Golden Globe, BAFTA and most recently the SAG. Giamatti holds PGA, Critics Choice and Golden Globe victories heading into the show. On paper, the edge is Murphy's since it's highly uncommon to win the SAG and not walk away with Oscar gold. Plus, a tidal wave of Oppenheimer support can only help bolster the chances for the type of biographical performance voters usually embrace. 

In his favor, Giamatti's career high work as a curmudgeonly educator in The Holdovers is probably more accessible than Murphy's icier turn and some may feel he's owed a trophy for the Sideways travesty. But that was decades ago so it'll probably come down to the movies, one of which its studio hung out to dry and is viewed as being more "lightweight" than the juggernaut that is Oppenheimer. Murphy takes it in one of the night's closer races.           

BEST DIRECTOR
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

Even if voters weren't exactly feeling adventurous when narrowing this down, but it's hard to argue against the inclusion of any of these filmmakers on merit. Perhaps more noticeable is who they displaced, as many still wish either Gerwig, Payne, Song or Jefferson could have snuck in. To that end, Glazer and Triet's nominations will be seen as reward enough given who they nudged out to claim their spots. 

There's a lot of respect for what Lanthimos did with Poor Things, but not necessarily enough from the older skewing director's branch to take him over the finish line. Once an early favorite, Scorsese's chances basically evaporated when KOTFM didn't get the rapturous reception most expected. Even those lukewarm on Oppenheimer can't deny Nolan's directorial achievement, or the fact he's probably overdue. This is his to lose, but he won't. 

BEST PICTURE
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

In a year with this obvious a frontrunner the futility of having ten nominees really stands out. Poor Things and American Fiction have done respectably while KOTFM's recent decline is steep enough to actually affect Gladstone's chances. Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives and The Zone of Interest each have their fans, but only Fall seems noteworthy for having that Triet nomination. Barbie's snubs in other categories damaged its viability in the big races, the underrated Maestro got a bad rap all season, and The Holdovers' best shot at gold remains with Randolph and possibly Giamatti.  

Every nominee has either lost momentum or held steady, with one notable exception. Oppenheimer has been running through the competition with shows no signs of slowing down, picking up every precursor while still being discussed and analyzed as if it came out yesterday. Audiences and critics love it and as a historical biography with timely resonance, its win is a foregone conclusion, giving Nolan matching Best Picture and Director statues.    

2024 Oscar Nominations (Reaction and Analysis)

Earlier this morning, the 96th Academy Award nominations were announced live from the Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Los Angles by actors Zazie Beetz and Jack Quaid, definitively ending months of speculation and guessing games. Now we're entering the home stretch, with all roads leading to the big show on March 10th, once again hosted by Jimmy Kimmel. But the key difference this year isn't just an unusually high number of quality films, but a couple of huge critical and commercial hits the mainstream moviegoing public actually turned out for. 

Since the general consensus was always that Barbie and Oppenheimer would do really well, the question became how well, and where the rest of the cards would fall. With ten nominees for Best Picture and an avalanche of precursor awards, it's hard to have many shocks in that category, but those looking for other snubs and surprises definitely found them. Who was robbed? Who miraculously snuck in? As usual, there's plenty to talk about. Let's see how the voters did. Click here for the complete list.

-Oppenheimer leads the pack with 13 nominations, with a decent portion potentially resulting in wins. That's the major story coming out of this, as many titles already earmarked for victories further solidified their frontrunner status. Poor Things and Killers of the Flower Moon followed with 10 nods, with the former even doing a little better than expected, dominating technical categories like Costume, Production Design, Cinematography and Editing. 

-Despite an 8 nomination haul, it's still hard not to look at Barbie's showing as somewhat of a disappointment. Sure, it got in for Picture, Adapted Screenplay (despite that controversial classification), both supporting categories and had two Original Song nominees, but Greta Gerwig (Director) and Margot Robbie's (Actress) snubs had to sting. They're in super competitive fields but Gerwig's absence really highlights the side effect of having ten Best Picture nominees: half those directors get left out.  

-You may as well give Christopher Nolan his Oscar now. Scorsese is probably his closest competition (and the oldest ever nominee in this category at 81) but his momentum stalled. Neither Anatomy of a Fall's Justine Triet, Poor Things' Yorgos Lanthimos or The Zone of Interest's Jonathan Glazer pose much of a threat, but can be proud their movies overperformed. Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) joins Gerwig on the sidelines, which is a shame since I'd switch out almost anyone not named Nolan or Scorsese for them and Maestro's Bradley Cooper. 

-All signs pointed toward DiCaprio being passed over for, if we're being honest, not one of his strongest performances in an unlikable role. Barry Keoghan for Saltburn, The Iron Claw's Zac Efron and Air's Matt Damon were sadly never realistic possibilities, leaving us with the predictably strong five of Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) and Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). This race will come down to Giamatti vs. Murphy and it could get tight. 

-How about that ovation for Lily Gladstone? If that's any indication, Emma Stone's in for a battle and should probably be worried. The Academy rarely resists nominating Annette Bening (Nyad) so it's fair to say Anatomy of a Fall's Sandra Hüller took Robbie's spot. That Carey Mulligan got in for Maestro is good news for a film many wanted to see crash and burn, picking up up 7 nods instead. That indignity was reserved for May December which missed just about everything except Original Screenplay. This leaves Natalie Portman out in the cold despite delivering some of her most compelling work in years. But after the film's lackluster showing at the BAFTA and SAG, the writing was on the wall.      

-Sterling K. Brown's Supporting nod for American Fiction wasn't a total surprise, but it's nice he got in since the category is pretty stacked with Robert De Niro (KOTFM), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie) and Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things) all sliding in. Remember when people were talking about Charles Melton winning this whole thing for May December? Completely snubbed. The Poor Things slot went to Ruffalo instead of Willem Dafoe, but it sure would have been great to see The Holdovers' Dominic Sessa here, as it was starting to feel like a real possibility. Saltburn is burned again as Jacob Elordi is left out. Downey's victory has never seemed more certain.

-In the crowded Supporting Actress category, Emily Blunt scores her first ever nod for Oppenheimer. The Color Purple had a poor showing overall, but the one actress everyone thought could go the distance was Danielle Brooks. America Ferrera is an Oscar nominee for Barbie after months of back and forth speculation about her chances. Like Bening, voters couldn't pass up the opportunity to include her co-star Jodie Foster, who was arguably even more impressive in Nyad. If there's any lingering doubt just how little voters think of May December, even Julianne Moore was ignored. Ferrari's Penelope Cruz, Saltburn's Rosamund Pike, Air's Viola Davis and Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret's Rachel McAdams failed to crack the top five, with the latter being the longest of long shots. The Holdovers' Da’Vine Joy Randolph just cemented her deservedly inevitable win.

-Best Picture is Oppenheimer's to lose at this point, with prestige picks like Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives and The Zone of Interest establishing their status alongside wider known selections like American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, KOTFM and Maestro. As much as the AMPAS likes to tout all its changes, this was business as usual. The only real exclusions here would be the cursed May December, The Color Purple, Saltburn, Society of the Snow, All of Us Strangers and The Iron Claw. But good luck finding any takers to bet on those.

Other Random Observations:

-That Napoleon scored 3 nominations (Production Design, Costume Design, Visual Effects) has to be considered a success given the film's lukewarm reception.

-How about that audience response for Godzilla: Minus One? Almost Gladstone-level.

-91 year-old John Williams picks up his 49th (!) Oscar nomination for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.            

-Am I the only one surprised that Asteroid City didn't get either a cinematography or production design nod? Like all of Wes Anderson's work, it's divisive, but even those who despised it seemed to at least acknowledge the visual achievement. Apparently this just got lost in the shuffle with its earlier release, much like Air.

-The most overlooked snub has to be the exclusion of Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, the award-winning feature on the actor many thought had not only secured its ticket to the ceremony, but should win. The Academy never tires of screwing up this category, but they really hit a new low with this one.    

           

Burning Questions from the 2023 Oscars

Wasn't it weird seeing someone host again?

Were you counting down the seconds until Jimmy Kimmel joked about the slap?

Didn't it take much longer than you expected? 

Actually, didn't his whole monologue take longer than you expected? 

But wasn't it still pretty good overall? 

Can you ever go wrong referencing Encino Man?

Were you worried Kimmel was going to talk about The Fabelmans all night? 

Did I not appreciate his Babylon joke? 

Is it possible he's right about James Cameron not being able to sit through his own movies?

Or enjoying drowning Kate Winslet?

Kimmel sure does like picking on Cameron, doesn't he? 

Do you think Cameron even cares?

Wasn't he spot on on about the Academy rewarding assault with a Best Actor Oscar?

And about everyone embarrassingly going along with it?

Will Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt be forever linked because of...Jungle Cruise? 

If you had to predict who'd present the first Oscar, wouldn't Johnson be an odds on favorite?

Wouldn't it be a bad start to miss Animated Feature considering how obvious that win was? 

Did you remember who won the supporting Oscars last year?

Wasn't the Ke Huy Quan moment every bit as special as we knew it would be?

After seeing Jamie Lee Curtis win, didn't it almost seem inevitable that she had to? 

Then again, was that a tough category to predict or what? 

How about her shout out to Halloween fans? 

Did Angela Bassett look...less than happy?

Were you thinking this was a good indication of how things would go for EEAAO?

Didn't that Diane Warren song sound like something you'd hear at the dentist's office?

Did you get the impression this nomination wouldn't end her 14-time losing streak? 

So, we're introducing movie trailers on the show now?

Doesn't EEAAO totally seem like David Byrne's type of movie?

As a Best Picture nominee, isn't Women Talking just a complete afterthought?

Not a question but...Jennifer Connelly!

Was it really necessary to keep THAT shot from The Whale on the screen while makeup artist Adrien Morot accepted his Oscar? 

Did this just ensure Connelly won't ever agree to return? 

Between Disney and Warner Bros., was this movie studios tribute night? 

When is the Orion Pictures montage?

Wasn't it great to see Gizmo?

And (not the real) Jenny The Donkey?

When will I stop picking Elvis as a winner in the craft categories?

Does this bode poorly for Austin Butler?

International Feature: most locked victory of the night?

Wasn't it funny when Kimmel said this was about the time in the show that people are missing the slapping?

Is Elizabeth Olsen the only actress to have actually gained respect and acting cred from starring in huge franchise movies?  

Were you worried/hoping My Year of Dicks would win Best Animated Short? 

Were you expecting such a stripped down performance from Lady Gaga?

Especially considering the song's from Top Gun: Maverick?

But wasn't it the best one so far? 

Did Hugh Grant call himself a scrotum?

Again, not a question but Babylon should have won for Production Design.

Again, not a question by Babylon should have won for Original Score.

Will that film ever be able to shake the stench of its box office failure?

They're really going to deny the 91-year-old John Williams also?

Is All Quiet cleaning up or what?

Are we back to regretting including all the categories on the show?

Just wasn't Elizabeth Banks' night, was it?

Aren't the Oscars a fitting venue for Cocaine Bear? 

Isn't "We just want to thank our families" the perfect place to cut a winner's speech off? 

Should the FCC prepare for another batch of pointless complaints for Rihanna's performance?

Remember those dark days when Sound was separated into two categories?

Did Kimmel really just joke about Robert Blake being in the In Memoriam montage? 

Wasn't his audience bit fairly quick and painless?

Did you think Chandrabose would sing through all of the "Naatu Naatu" acceptance speech?

Did John Travolta have a tough time getting through that In Memoriam intro or what?

When you saw the first name in the montage did it then become obvious why?

Um, Anne Heche?

Tom Sizemore?

Leslie Jordan?

These Daniels guys sure are characters aren't they? 

Fair to say Will Smith not presenting Best Actress? 

Hoping Kimmel really was joking about stretching the remaining awards out?

Weren't the presenter pairings fairly solid all night ?

About ten seconds before Best Actor was announced, why was I regretting my Austin Butler prediction?

Did the result answer that question? 

Is Brendan Fraser winning the happiest I've been to get a major category wrong?

Were you relieved Cate Blanchett didn't storm the stage in character as Lydia Tár when Michelle Yeoh won?

Given how the night went, how big a shock would it have been if EEAAO lost?

It took 95 years for a sci-fi film to win Best Picture?

Knowing the Academy's tastes, is anyone surprised?

Does it get any better than seeing Ke Huy Quan reunited with Harrison Ford onstage?

Didn't this seem like one of the more competently produced shows in recent years?  

Especially last year's?

Should we just accept that the Oscars feeling and being too long goes with the territory at this point?

Wasn't the "Telecasts Without Incident" gag a good closer?

Burning Questions from the 2022 Oscars

Are the red carpet interviewers part of ABC's master plan to finally reach that younger demo for the show?

Judging from the opening, is the new strategy to turn this into the Grammys?

Was that a lot of green or what?

Should we just be grateful they didn't predictably start with a hosts making a silly entrance?

Do you remember hearing Beyonce's original song from King Richard before now? 

Are 3 hosts too many?

Didn't they have to address the category cutting controversy?

When are we going to find out who won Editing? 

Were you worried each host would have their own monologue?

Wasn't Amy Schumer's Don't Look Up jab pretty great?

Wasn't it completely true what she said about Sorkin somehow being able to make an unfunny movie about Lucille Ball?

Have we just found out where all this 'extra time' is going on the show?  

Was DeBose's win such a foregone conclusion that she didn't even seem surprised?

Did Regina Hall sell the hell out of that COVID testing gag or what?

So, guessing it's okay to joke about that now? 

What's Chamalet wearing?

Did anyone know it was the 30th Anniversary of White Men Can't Jump?

Feel old yet?

If not, will you by the time the show's over? 

Has the Dune technical sweep began?

Could they breeze by that Documentary Short announcement any faster?

But didn't it probably get more time than we expected?

True to her word, wasn't it cool Jessica Chastain attended that pre-taped ceremony? 

Were you waiting for security to escort the uninvited Rachel Zegler out of the building?

Did her bad week continue when she had to present with someone 15 feet taller than her?

Are you still in disbelief that Lily James played Pamela Anderson?

Does everyone remember where they were when...The Flash entered the speed force?

Didn't Dreamgirls seem really, really out of place on that superhero heavy list? 

Wasn't Wanda Sykes' segment with the great Tim Bagley at the Academy Museum by far the best skit of the night?

Where was the Flash entering the speed force exhibit?

How about Wanda's reaction to Hattie McDaniel's missing Oscar?

Did you immediately get chills from Youn Yuh-jung's reaction to Troy Kotsur's win?

And then that shot of the audience?

Between this and Dune's dominance, could things look any bleaker for The Power of the Dog? 

Isn't the music playing the winners up to the stage unusually good this year?

Hasn't the show been a lot more slickly produced than last year's debacle? 

How are we doing on time? 

Did Mila Kunis' speech mean we're not getting Zelensky?

Isn't that okay since he probably his hands full right now?

All things considered, aren't they handling the pre-taped awards segments fairly well?

Were you worried Dune would also win Costume Design and screw up everyone's predictions?

Weren't you relieved it didn't?

6 Oscars already for Dune?

Wanda Sykes as Richard Williams? 

Has Jennifer Garner aged in 15 years? 

Did you hear that ovation for Branagh's win?

Was that adapted screenplay loss to CODA the final nail in The Power of the Dog's coffin?

Isn't it kind of a miracle Minamata somehow finished third in the Oscar popular vote?

Was Rami Malek introducing that song in character as Lyutsifer Safin?

Didn't Billie Eilish's Bond theme sound better live than in the movie?

Did they just say "final exciting hour?"

Does that mean we're ending at 11:15?

Should I hold them to that?  

By that time, will Dune have won more Oscars than Titanic?

Must they announce a category winner the second after they return from break?

Isn't Ridley Scott just going to love Regina Hall's The Last Duel joke? 

Um, What the hell just happened with Will Smith and Chris Rock?

Wait, was that real?

Did Smith just open hand smack him across the face?

Over "G.I. Jane 2?" 

Does someone need to tell the Smiths that G.I. Jane features maybe the most badass bald woman in any movie?

Does this incident put the "Oscar streaker" to shame?

Was someone at ABC just instructed to sit on the censor button for 2 minutes straight?

Hasn't Smith taken this Richard Williams role a bit far? 

Should Williams now star in a movie about Smith?

Didn't you just know Chris Rock would make this show interesting and relevant again?

If that was staged, should both take home Oscars? 

Which was worse: The slap or look of smug satisfaction on Smith's face as he strutted off the stage?

Should someone tell him he's a week early for Wrestlemania?

Is it time to start worrying who they'll egregiously leave out of the In Memoriam montage?

Weren't there a huge amount of notable deaths this year? 

Wasn't that unusually upbeat music for an In Memoriam montage?  

Wasn't it a nice touch having Bill Murray and Jamie Lee Curtis appear?

Did they really omit Bob Saget?

If you thought the White Can't Jump Anniversary made you feel old, imagine how who those who grew up on The Godfather feel?

Has a year ever gone by when Diane Warren wasn't nominated for Original Song?

Not a question but...COSTNER! 

Did you see the audience hanging on his every word?  

Was Jane Campion mocking his heartfelt speech?

Well, at least The Power of the Dog won something...right?

Should Campion maybe avoid talking about the Williams sisters again during her acceptance speech?

At this point were you thinking that Will Smith's speech sure should be interesting?

28 years later, doesn't it still kind of sting that Pulp Fiction didn't win Best Picture? 

Were you expecting Will Smith to be tackled by security or police before reaching the podium?

A standing ovation...really?

Should Travolta and Jackson get ready to protect themselves? 

Can Smith's career ever recover from this?

Isn't that such a weird thing to say about someone who just won an Oscar?

Is he lucky that such a thing as consequences don't exist?

Should he be in jail instead of on that stage a second time?

And to think 24 hours ago the big concern was how "boring" the show could be?

Did Smith put to rest any lingering doubt that the incident could have been staged the second he got up there and started talking?

Was that the longest acceptance speech in Oscar history?

Did you notice they wouldn't dare play him off? 

Did all that early promise the show would end at a decent time just evaporate in front of our eyes?

Hopkins was right. Smith sure said it all, didn't he? And then some.

Hey, if they strip him of the Oscar will that compromise my near-perfect Oscar prediction score this year?

Wasn't it the biggest relief to see Jessica Chastain up there after all that? 

Wasn't Gaga great in how she helped and guided Liza Minnelli?

Was CODA's Best Picture win completely overshadowed or what?

How about those Oscar ratings NOW? 

If this doesn't raise them, will anything?

Then again, 3 hours and 40 minutes?

Can Chris Rock host next year?