THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS
China coronavirus cases may have been four times official figure, says study
More than 232,000 could have been infected in first wave, compared with then-official total of 55,000, as US envoy calls for rethink of US-China relationship
Helen Davidson
Thu 23 April 2020
More than 232,000 people may have been infected in the first wave of Covid-19 in mainland China, four times the official figures, according to a study by Hong Kong researchers.
China has now reported more than 83,000 cases. Globally, the death toll from the coronavirus has exceeded 183,000, with the number of cases worldwide standing at more than 2.6 million.
China’s national health commission issued seven versions of a case definition for Covid-19 between 15 January and 3 March, and the study found these changes had a “substantial effect” on how many infections which were detected as cases.
It comes as China’s ambassador to the US called for “a serious rethink of the foundations” of the two countries’ relationship, while also criticising US politicians for ignoring scientists and making “groundless” accusations.
The Hong Kong study analysed data up to 20 February culled from the World Health Organization’s mission to Wuhan.
It estimated that each of the first four changes increased the proportion of cases detected and counted, by between 2.8 and 7.1 times.
“If the fifth version of the case definition had been applied throughout the outbreak with sufficient testing capacity, we estimated that by 20 February 2020, there would have been 232,000 … confirmed cases in China as opposed to the 55,508 confirmed cases reported,” the study said.
As scientific knowledge and laboratory capability evolved, the definition of a confirmed case has broadened to include cases with milder symptoms, or without epidemiological links to Wuhan or other known cases.
The report said these changes should be taken into account when looking at the rate of the epidemic’s growth and doubling times.
On Wednesday the US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, said the US believed that China’s ruling Communist party failed to report the outbreak of the new coronavirus in a timely manner.
The US and Australia have called for an international investigation into the handling of the outbreak.
Despite having voiced support for US citizens protesting against lockdowns, Trump said of Georgia governor Brian Kemp: “I want him to do what he thinks is right, but I disagree with him on what he’s doing.”
The US’s top infectious diseases expert, Dr Anthony Fauci, also urged against Kemp’s decision.
Trump said the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr Robert Redfield, had been “totally misquoted” in an article about the dangers of the virus during flu season. Redfield, standing by Trump at the podium, told reporters: “I’m accurately quoted in the Washington Post”.
Fauci said he was “convinced” of the risk of resurgence, adding: “We will have coronavirus in the fall.”
Other developments include:
The world is on track for a recession of “unprecedented depth in the post-war period”, ratings agency Fitch said in a note issued on Thursday. The agency now expected world gross domestic product to tumble by 3.9% in 2020.
Asian stock markets rose on Thursday as the combination of a rebound in crude prices from historic lows and the promise of more US government aid to cushion the coronavirus-ravaged economy helped calm nervous markets.
South Korea’s economy, the world’s 12th largest, saw its worst performance in more than a decade in the first quarter of this year, the central bank said Thursday, with officials warning of a bigger impact still to come.
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Missing Wuhan citizen journalist Li Zehua has reappeared. He went missing for almost two months after posting videos from Wuhan during the coronavirus outbreak but has turned up, saying he was detained by police and forcibly quarantined.
The director general of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, has said that there is still “a long way to go” in tackling the coronavirus crisis around the world.
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