The Numbers and Final Predictions

Ok, after the BAFTA nominations everyone started to panic...myself included, about the snub of 'The Dark Knight', 'Sally Hawkins', 'Gus Van Sant' and 'Viola Davis'.
As you know I have been steadily gathering all the numbers for the top 6 awards this year. Ciritcs awards, guilds, awards bodies, top ten lists and various wins.
Let us break it down now.
For each category I am going to only give the top eight contenders in accordance to the scriptures my numbers:

Best Picture
1- Slumdog Millionaire
2-WALL-E
3-The Dark Knight
4-Milk
5-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
6-Frost/Nixon
7-The Wrestler
8-Happy-Go-Lucky

I would say the only two locks are 'Button' and 'Slumdog', the tides could change with the rest of the other three ('Milk' is the next safest). I would say you can take out 'Happy' and 'The Wrestler' and do a pick and mix with the remaining three films and you could have a very believable Best Pic line up. I am not giving up on 'TDK' or 'WALL-E' just yet, even though everything in my brain is saying the Academy are not going to embrace two genre films in one year. However I am going with the fact the world is high on hope and the nominees will easily be 'Slumdog', 'WALL-E', 'TDK', 'Milk', 'TCCOBB', outside shot 'Frost/Nixon'

Best Director
1-Danny Boyle
2-David Fincher
3-Christopher Nolan
4-Gus Van Sant
5-Ron Howard
6-Andrew Stanton
7-Mike Leigh
8-Stephen Daldry

Easily take out Daldry.
Leave Boyle and Fincher as locks, Nolan and Van Sant as near locks and play eeany meeny miney moe with the last three. Stanton and Leigh are wild cards, but Leigh has surprised before. Since the 'Slumdog' fever I assume people want a bit of hope and joy, and that makes me think 'Happy-Go-Lucky' could be a stronger contender than people think. So being overly optimistic I say we see Boyle, Fincher, Nolan, Van Sant, Leigh. HA! outside shot Stanton.

Best Actress
1-Sally Hawkins
2-Anne Hathaway
3-Meryl Streep
4-Kate Winslet
5-Angelina Jolie
6-Melissa Leo
7-Kristen Scott Thomas
8-Michelle Williams

How funny that the person leading with precursors coming into this is the one most at risk.
Hathaway and Streep are locks. Take out Williams and you could be looking at a very interesting game for the last 3 slots.
I am not going to be surprised in Jolie is snubbed again, for what many many people think is a lesser performance. Do they really feel the need to make it up to her?
I say Hawkins, Hathaway, Streep, Winslet, Leo. Not that on a limb, but still a good(ish) set. Outside shot Jolie although can still see Williams surprising.

Best Actor
1-Sean Penn
2-Mickey Rourke
3-Frank Langella
4-Richard Jenkins
5-Brad Pitt
6-Clint Eastwood
7-Leonardo DiCaprio
8-Benicio del Torro

This is another interesting race. Penn, Rourke and Langella are locks, easily. Take out del Torro and the last two slots are looking to be filled by 4 actors. I say Eastwood will be nominated. I can just see him pulling an Ed Harris 'Pollock' last minute nom. therefore my crystal ball says Penn, Rourke, Langella, Jenkins, Eastwood outside shot DiCaprio

Best Supporting Actress
1-Penelope Cruz
2-Viola Davis
3-Marisa Tomei
4-Kate Winslet
5-Amy Adams
6-Rosemarie DeWitt
7-Taraji P. Henson
8-Alexis Zegerman

Zegerman is a pipe dream. Most likely so is DeWitt (so sad). Seven Actresses are vying for 5 slots. Will Winslet split votes or not? Who can say? It can go either way for her. She can end up with two noms, 1 nom in lead or supporting or no noms. I really believe that Cruz and Davis are the only locks, with Tomei coming up as a major possibility. I kind of closed my eyes and pointed and came up with Cruz, Davis, Tomei, Winslet, DeWitt. (I say Dewitt pulls a Marcia Gay Harden) outside shot Henson.

Best Supporting Actor
1-Heath Ledger
2-Robert Downey, Jr.
3-Philip Seymour Hoffman
4-Dev Patel
5-Josh Brolin
6-Eddie Marsan
7-Michael Shannon
8-Ralph Feinnes

For being so low on the list Brolin in a lock, as is Ledger (duh!). I am not 100% about Downey, Jr. and Hoffman, but they are very likely as well. Feinnes and Shannon are very dark horses indeed....so dark I can hardly see them. That leaves Marsan and Patel. A Marsan nom would be great (how can they watch the film and not write down his name?), but would not surprise me all that much, same with Patel. Um.....Ledger, Downey, Jr., Hoffman, Patel, Brolin outside shot Marsan.

To be honest I will be watching live, expecting to very very disappointed come nomination day. No Batman, no Sally, no Marsan, no Leo, no Stanton no film to really get behind.
So wearing my heart on my sleeve is the only way I can get through it....I mean it is a nail biter ripe with disappointments isn't it?

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Dount
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire

alt: The Reader

Best Original Screenplay

Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Christina Barcelona
WALL-E
alt: In Bruges

Mini Review - 'Revolutionary Road'

If I ever become an actor I am definitely going to start an affair with my director so I am photographed as beautifully as Sam Mendes did wife Kate Winslet.

While watching this very dark and depressing film I was not overly drawn to the story or the characters aside from the basic 'I am so on Aprils side with this'.
But a strange thing happened.
I have not been able to stop thinking about the film.

True it sheds a dark and unhappy light on relationships and the pressures they come up against, but it also makes the viewer take a look at themselves and the relationships they are or have been in.

The idea of living a life you are raised to think is normal only to find it is not what you want, and you are trapped in the confines you have yourself created is something most of us can relate to.
April Wheeler (Winslet) feels trapped. She loves her children, but regrets having them so young. She loves her husband, but also blames him for allowing them both to get trapped in this life she doesn't want. She had wanted to be an actress but was not that good. Instead she uses what talent she has to feign interest in her well meaning but dull neighbours.
No one expects women to feel this way. Even today women are supposed to desire children from an early age, and then love their lives after they have them, but in all honestly, that is hardly ever the case.
Frank (Leonardo DiCaprio) is in a job he doesn't like, in a place he doesn't like living and sees no way out. His wife is unhappy and constantly picks fights with him, and he in turn goads her by not allowing her time to be angry or silent.

Both actors deliver great performances, each going down to dark and cruel places to bring these two broken people to life (as much as they can). Winslet, in particular has a difficult time of making each mood shift believable. However both are let down a little by some screenplay and directorial decisions which seem to never allow them (especially DiCaprio) to completely get under their characters skin, therefore making it hard to invest in either character (this could be mainly because I related to April and not Frank - the bf was completely the opposite and said he though Winslet was the weaker link). The first few moments of the film see the couple having a screeching argument in the car, but as a viewer, you do not know these characters well enough to take it as more than an actors showcase piece. Perhaps some more time showing the deterioration would have fixed this.
There were many times at the begining where I just wished these two would just shut the f*ck up. Perhaps a more fluid screenplay would have ironed out these sometimes completely unrealistic outbursts, or at least, allowed the viewer to understand the characters more, so when they do pick each other apart there is more of a back story to draw from.
As I got to know April, however, this didn't matter so much. She may have been overly emotional and cruel but this is a wonderful portrait of a woman who, through marriage, domesticity and motherhood has lost her identity.

However, criticisms aside, 'Revolutionary Road' has stayed with me making me think about myself and why I think the way I do, how I am similar to these people, and how I need to change. It is like low cost therapy.

B+

"Body of Lies" Trailer

Meh.

Trailers Alert!

Firsty the directorial debut of Ben Affleck "Gone Baby Gone".

"Dorchester, one of the toughest neighborhoods in all of Boston, is no place for the weak or innocent. Its a territory defined by hard heads and even harder luck, its streets littered with broken families, hearts, dreams. When one of its own, a 4-year-old girl, goes missing, private investigators Patrick Kenzie (Casey Affleck) and Angela Gennaro (Michelle Monoghan) don't want the case. But after pleas from the child's aunt (Amy Madigan), they open an investigation that will ultimately risk everything -- their relationship, their sanity, and even their lives -- to find a little girl-lost.""

What is to note is this is an adaptation of the book written by "Mystic River" scribe Dennis Lehane. Also perhaps we should watch out for the supporting performances of Amy Madigan, Ed Harris, and Amy Ryan as the girls mother. Also never ever count out Morgan Freeman.


Secondly, word of mouth is not too shabby, and it is a very very important subject to not just me, but to everyone, even those who do not care (and there are surprisingly alot of them out there). Should this take off, look for it to compete with Michael Moore's "Sicko" in the documentary award.
On a personal note, this is something that upsets me greatly. Mankind is a plague to the planet but could so easily be its salvation if only we made an effort. Simple things like recycling, water conservation, buying fuel efficient transport should be law.

The 11th Hour

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Lastly we have "The Jane Austen Book Club". Looks so cheesy and touchy feely and I really want to see it. Not only does it have the yummy Hugh Dancy (sigh) but also Academy darlings Kathy Baker and Lynn Redgrave along side newer and fresher faces itching to be called to the Oscar inner circle such as Maria Bello and Emily Blunt. Would not be surprised at all to see one of the cast memebers break through ala Julia Roberts in "Steel Magnolias" (Me thinks it could be Emily)

The Oscar bait of 'Revolutionary Road'

Kate Winslet and Leonardo DiCaprio are teaming up again (I know old news) for Revolutionary Road, directed by Kate’s hubby Sam Mendes.
If this does not scream Oscar bait then I do not know what does.
This has all the callings of the type of film the Academy LOVES!
Oscar calibre cast…check.
Respected Director…check.
Adaptation of beloved literary novel to make the academy feel high brow…check
Plus so much more!!

There is also news of the casting of fellow Titanic alumni Kathy Bates. It will be good to see Bates with another role, and we know what she can do with supporting work (steal the film) and I wouldn’t be surprised if she found herself up for Oscar nomination number four in 2009. (Beloved veteran actor…check)

Set in 1955 (period costume…check), the novel focuses on the hopes and aspirations of Frank and April Wheeler, self-assured Connecticut suburbanites who see themselves as very different from their neighbours in the Revolutionary Hill Estates in which they have just moved. (American setting…check)

April Wheeler (Kate Winslet), with her thespian ambitions and her plans to move to Paris, is doomed, ultimately, to failure. (actor, playing actor…check)
Her fantasies about Parisian life are the more absurd for being supported by her belief that her husband is fluent in French but he knows the language hardly at all, he once drunkenly boasted about his proficiency. (Suffering wife...check...the Academy loves this type of role more than any other)


Frank Wheeler's (Leonardo DiCaprio) sense of his lawless masculinity coexists with his bland acceptance of a futile corporation job. To cope with his failings he often drinks too much and finds himself engaging in an affair with a co-worker. The narrative details the day-to-day lives of this couple and their concerns for their future. (drug dependency and extra marital affair…check)

Basically it will be pretty tough for this to fail in all aspects. The Academy are going to be looking at rewarding both DiCaprio and Winslet, and this looks like it could be the one to do it.

Mini Review number 8 - Blood Diamond

Instead of writing a typical review (which I am still coming to grips with) I want to talk about a few important things that I learned from watching Blood Diamond, that going into the movie I had no idea about. This was such an amazing educational experience for me that I am, in fact, still trying to absorb it all. I really did not expect to be made so aware of so many things from one movie. I will try and do this without too many spoilers so you can all get the same experience I did. So without any more chatter:

1) Djimon Housou and Leonardo are actually, despite other bloggers opinions, quite good in the very few acting scenes they get.

2) Acting and running at the same time is hard.









3) They give oscars for best running, in Leo's case, running with an accent, those crazy Academy members love an accent.






4) White people have the amazing ability to repell bullets fired by black African rebel soldiers. (Other soldiers…different story)

5) Jennifer Connley looks rather lovely when her hair is layered, or as Dean calls her, Jennifer Eyebrows.









6) Child soldiers are bad, unless there is a nice poppy song playing in the soundtrack, then they are cool. More guns for kids please!!

7) My lovely boyfriend seems to have liked this movie……I didn’t know he was that obsessed with Leo.

8) Living in Africa gets you a really nice abs and pecs, but you might get killed

9) You can buy guns in bars. “Can I have strawberry daiquiri and a AK-47 please Sammy?”

10) Tony Blair is a Diamond Smuggler!!!!

11) Diamonds really are not worth it all you shallow ass bitches. Make mine a cubic zirconium!!!




Grade C

MAFFE - BEST ACTOR 2007

I struggled to include Sasha Baron Cohen – Borat , Clive Owen – The Children of Men and Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson , but could not upset the top 5.