Members in the News: May 19, 2025

 Zhengfei Guan, University of Florida

“New Tariff Sparks Tomato War Between Importers and Florida Growers” By: The Washington Post - May 2, 2025 “Unlike corn or soybeans, tomatoes can’t be socked away and stored if the market is saturated, which makes them particularly susceptible to dumping. Sell it or smell it. If you don’t sell it, it’s worthless.” (Continued...) Read more on: The Washington Post Amitrajeet Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology “Your Data Is Powering Bad Purchases” By: Basis Point – May 12, 2024 “Trump’s Tariffs Will Hurt More Than They Help” By: Basis Point – May 16, 2025 David Ortega, Michigan State University “US Egg Prices Fall For the First Time in Months But Remain Near Record Highs” By: Associated Press – May 13, 2025 “Inflation is Dropping But These Prices Are Still Soaring” By: ABC News – May 15, 2025 Colin Andre Carter, University of California, Davis “California Farmers, Hit Hard by Trump’s Trade War, Haven’t Turned Against Him Yet” By: KQED – May 9, 2025 “He’s hurting the people who voted for him… Prior to the early Trump trade war, China was the number one market for U.S. agriculture exports. The trade war that was initiated by Trump ruined that relationship, and China is no longer number one. And if we look at California, some California products were highly dependent on China.” (Continued...) Read more on: KQED Kristiina Ala-Kokko, University of Arkansas “Production Economist Aims to Boost Farm Efficiency Amid Evolving Technology, Weather Risks” By: Stuttgart Daily Leader – May 9, 2025 “Too often students are tasked with merely memorizing information. She aims instead to challenge her students to interact with material more closely through interactive projects that harness their creativity. It helps students figure out exactly what they’re interested in. I really want to be a teacher that inspires students to get excited about ag because there are a lot of challenges facing this sector but also a lot of career opportunities in agriculture.” (Continued...) Read more on: Stuttgart Daily Leader Thomas Hertel, Purdue University “Scientists Shielding Farming From Climate Change Need More Public Funding” By: Agripub News – May 13, 2025 “More people on the Earth, you need more productivity to prevent food prices going crazy. Even if nothing changes right away. 10 years from now, 20 years from now, our yield growth will surely be stunted” by cuts to research on agricultural productivity. (Continued...) Read more on: Agripub News Joseph Balagtas, Purdue University “Majority of Shoppers Understand Seed Oils as Secure, However Well Being Issues Upward Push” By: Health 365 – May 15, 2025 “Seed oils have long been a common cooking oil in American homes, because they’re relatively inexpensive, have desirable cooking properties and are a source of unsaturated fat. But they’ve come under scrutiny lately, especially in social media, with a message that they are unhealthy.” (Continued...) Read more on: Health 365 William Maples, Mississippi State University “This Planting Season, Farmers Say Federal Assistance is Too Little, Too Late” By: Mississippi Today – May 16, 2025 “While the state is nowhere near the conditions that led to the notorious farm failures of the 1980s, the concern is, can we get there? If we stay in this environment, 2025 is looking tough, and 2026 is another tough year. That’s when talk about Can it get as bad as the 80s? will really pick up.” (Continued...) Read more on: Mississippi Today Rigoberto Lopez, University of Connecticut “CT is Popular With Grocery Stores, Having More Per Capita Than Other U.S. States. Here's Why” By: Darien Times – May 17, 2025 “One of the main attractions Connecticut holds for grocery stores is that the state presents supermarket chains, large and small, with access to heterogeneous populations… It's not one size fits all. You're going to have different types of grocery stores in different towns. But everybody has to eat." (Continued...) Read more on: Darien Times

2025 AEM- GSS CASE STUDY COMPETITION

The Agribusiness Economics and Management (AEM) – Graduate Student Section (GSS) Case Study Competition allows graduate students to test their communication skills and their ability to apply their knowledge of agricultural economics and agribusiness to practical situations.

Competition Rules and Timeline: Each team must complete the 2025 AEM-GSS Case Study Registration Form by June 13, 2025. Teams can be comprised of up to three graduate students. Students may either compete as a team from the same university or partner with students from other universities. If there is only one student from a university that wants to participate, the student can compete on their own; or they can be matched with other students. In the case of teams that are matched with individuals from different universities, competitors will be notified of their teammates as soon as possible, and no later than the same day the case is announced.

The case will be sent to teams in mid-July, and teams will be given approximately two weeks to prepare a 15-minute oral summary of their solution to the case. The competition will take place on Sunday, July 27, 2025 coinciding with the AAEA Annual Meeting set to take place in Denver, CO. Teams will present their case to a panel of judges with expertise in agribusiness management. Judges will then be allotted time to ask questions, and teams will be judged based on a grading rubric that will be provided to teams when the case is sent in July. There will be two rounds to the competition. In the first round, judges will hear from all teams and select the top three teams as finalists. After this announcement, the finalists will present their case to a new panel of judges.

A summary of the competition’s preliminary timeline is presented below.

•  Registration form due: Friday, June 13 by 5:00 pm EDT
• Case sent to team: Friday, July 13 by 5:00 pm EDT
• Case Study Competition: Sunday, July 27, 8:00 am – 1:30 pm EDT*
• Case Study Finals: Sunday, July 27, 1:30 pm – 4:30 pm EDT*

* Eastern time is used for the competition as the 2025 Annual Meeting will take place in Denver, CO.

Competition Prizes: The top three teams will receive plaques, cash prizes, and will be recognized at the AAEA Award Ceremony. The cash prizes are as follows:

• First Place: $500
• Second place: $400
• Third place: $300

This is an AEM and GSS co-sponsored competition. As early career professionals, students are highly encouraged to be AAEA members as well as GSS and/or the AEM members. Eligible teams must meet the following criteria:

1.       At least one team member should have an active AAEA membership for 2025 and be a member of AEM or GSS.

2.       Each team must complete the Case Study Registration Form (by continuing this survey: https://ufl.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_db65HkI8jaTjV54) identifying their teammates and the universities they represent. The survey registration form must be completed no later than June 13, 2025 (5:00pm EDT).

Please direct any questions regarding the 2025 AEM-GSS Case Study Competition to Meri Hambaryan (m.hambaryan@ufl.edu) or Dr. Iuliia Tetteh (iproto1@ilstu.edu).

Members in the News: May 12, 2025

 David Ortega, Michigan State University

“How Will Trump's Tariffs Affect Grocery Store Prices? We Explain”

By: USA Today – May 5, 2025

"The short answer is yes, prices are going to go up. They may not skyrocket for all imported products, but they will go up. Tariffs are a tax on imports, so by definition, they are inflationary."

(Continued...)
Read more on: USA Today

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Martin Smith, Duke University

“Why Do Shrimpers Like Tariffs?”

By: NPR - May 7, 2025

“You're going to drive up prices, and you're going to drive down seafood consumption. And that's going to be bad for cardiovascular health and, overall, the health of Americans.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: NPR

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Lotanna Emediegwu, Manchester Metropolitan University

“Why Donald Trump’s Trade Tariffs Are a Threat to Global Food Security”

By: The Conversation – May 1, 2025

“Donald Trump’s tariffs will make many things more expensive for his fellow US citizens. The price of imported cars, building materials and some tech will go up – and so will the cost of the food on American dining tables. The US currently imports around 16% of its food supply, with a large proportion of its fruit and vegetables coming from countries now hit by tariffs.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: The Conversation

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Andrew Muhammad, University of Tennessee

“Tennessee Farmers, Consumers Expected to Feel Trump's Tariffs”

By: Public News Service – May 7, 2025

“Ultimately, the goal of tariffs is to incentivize domestic production and disincentivize imports — in other words, to reduce international trade. But this is a mistake. International trade is a means by which you can consume beyond your ability to produce. It’s good for an individual. It’s good for a city, it’s good for a state and, of course, it’s good for a country.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Public News Service

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Munkaila Lambongang, West Virginia University

“WVU Student Researches Household Resiliency”

By: The Inter-Mountain – March 29, 2025

“I chose to explore the influence of household structure on climate resilience because, despite its significance for policy, it remains an understudied area in research. Effective climate adaptation strategies require resources for successful implementation. Since different family structures provide varying support mechanisms, it is crucial to examine how household decision-making shapes adaptation to climate change and its impact on food security. Understanding these dynamics will help inform targeted policies that enhance resilience and food security in vulnerable communities”

(Continued...)
Read more on: The Inter-Mountain

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Lawton Lanier Nalley, University of Arkansas

“Rice Looks For its Niche as a Malted Grain”

By: High Plains Journal – May 4, 2025

“I was surprised of the feasibility study on malted rice. When we started this, I thought there’s no way this is going to work. How long have humans been drinking beer, and how long has rice been around? The economist in me thought, well if this would have worked, they would have done it 400 years ago! But I guess it took lightning in a bottle with Scott and Bernardo to put two and two together to figure this out, because this could work.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: High Plains Journal

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David Ortega, Michigan State
Brenna Ellison, Purdue University

“Tariffs Won’t Just Hit Your Wallet. They Could Also Increase Food Waste”

By: Good Men Project – May 6, 2025 

“We rely on imports, from Mexico in particular, on things like fresh fruit and vegetables in order to meet year-round consumer demand. Tariffs have the potential to send those prices soaring by raising the cost of production. But the lack of clarity around U.S. trade relations is already impacting operations in the food and beverage industry. There’s so much uncertainty, you don’t know how to operate your business and you don’t know how to plan for it,” said Torrens. “If you knew what the new reality was, you’d adapt to it.”

“I think tariffs are a bit of a supply chain disruption,” not unlike the ones felt during the pandemic. The trouble stems from the fact that fruit and vegetables are highly perishable.

(Continued...)
Read more on: Good Men Project

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James Mintert, Purdue University

“Farmers Back U.S. Efforts To Rebalance Trade With China Despite Economic Hardship”

By: AgWeb – May 7, 2025

 “This was driven by farmers’ optimism, despite their ongoing concerns about the impact of trade wars and tariffs. The improvement in farmer sentiment came as a bit of a surprise to us.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: AgWeb

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David Ortega, Michigan State University
Daniel Sumner, University of California, Davis

“The Pork Industry Asks Congress to Overturn Prop. 12, a Divisive Animal Welfare Law, Yet Again”

By: Civil Eats – May 6, 2025

“If the average 20 percent jump is accurate, the price disruption would also likely be higher at the start, since costs to upgrade housing for pigs, for instance, occur once at the beginning of the process and markets need time to adjust. You would expect the immediate shock and then a bit of a decay as things adjust and you spread costs over more product.”

“It also was not a peer-reviewed study. The data acted in a strange way that warranted additional scrutiny. He published it because it was the only data available.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: Civil Eats

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Amitrajeet Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology

“If You Really Want to Close the US Trade Deficit, Try Boosting Innovation in Rural Manufacturing”

By: The Conversation – May 12, 2025

“President Donald Trump has long been preoccupied by the trade deficit — the gap between what the U.S. sells to the rest of the world and what it buys from it. He recently declared the issue a national emergency and used trade deficit data to calculate so-called “reciprocal tariffs” targeting nearly 100 countries. Although those specific tariffs are now on pause, Trump’s concern with the trade deficit persists.”

(Continued...)
Read more on: The Conversation

Member Blog: David Zilberman

Adoption, Diffusion, and the Tipping Point: Merging Malcolm Gladwell’s insights with academic knowledge

By David ZILBERMAN / April 26, 2025

I thoroughly enjoyed reading Malcolm Gladwell’s The Tipping Point and The Revenge of the Tipping Point. Both books draw on and interpret a wide array of scientific papers, making them informative and engaging and valuable contributions to broader discourse beyond the academic literature. My work focuses on the economics of adoption and diffusion. Adoption and diffusion, from time to time, lead to the emergence of tipping points. These processes can explain the spread of technologies, changes in beliefs and lifestyles, and even changes in regimes and governments. I want to shine some light on how these processes work and their implications.

Diffusion and Adoption: Definitions and Early Models
Diffusion is the spread of technologies, diseases, or ideas among a population. For example, iPhones have diffused rapidly worldwide, while the adoption of automobiles has occurred more slowly. Adoption, by contrast, is the individual’s decision to embrace a new technology, belief, or behavior—such as a farmer choosing to adopt a tractor over oxen. Early diffusion models treated the process as a form of imitation among a homogeneous population, often borrowing from epidemiological frameworks: a few people are “infected,” and others adopt through contact. Aggregated adoption over time follows an S-shaped curve: slow at first, then accelerating (takeoff), and finally slowing again as it approaches saturation. This pattern holds for technologies and beliefs, though disadoption and replacement are common as newer options emerge. People may even use multiple technologies simultaneously during transition periods.

Beyond Homogeneity: Thresholds and Heterogeneity
While early models have been valuable and easy to estimate, they are limited. They overlook that individuals differ and that both technologies and beliefs evolve. To address this, we developed the modified threshold model, which assumes a heterogeneous population where each individual makes decisions based on unique preferences and circumstances and where opportunities shift over time. Sources of heterogeneity differ by context: large farmers are more likely to adopt tractors early; wealthy individuals often purchase luxury goods first; those with higher education may more readily adopt complex software. Recognizing this diversity is essential to improving policy and marketing strategies.

The Stages of Adoption and the Role of Policy
Adoption unfolds through several stages: awareness, assessment, decision, and reevaluation. A person might hear about a product through word-of-mouth or advertising and then evaluate its appeal and cost before deciding whether to buy or try it. Reevaluation often follows use, with marketing strategies like demonstrations, warranties, and money-back guarantees helping to reduce post-purchase regret. Economists have long recognized that policy affects diffusion. Subsidies for new technologies, carbon taxes, or mandates can accelerate adoption. Regulation may compel or prohibit certain behaviors, thereby shaping diffusion trajectories.



Dynamic Forces: Learning and Networks
Several dynamic forces further influence diffusion:

• Learning-by-doing reduces production costs over time.
• Learning-by-using improves user efficiency.
• Network externalities make technologies more valuable as more people adopt them.

Technologies also evolve—new models replace old ones, and resale markets allow continued diffusion. These dynamics mean that adoption is not static but a continuous and path-dependent process.

Tipping Points and Societal Transformation
Gladwell’s tipping point concept adds a crucial layer to this understanding. A tipping point marks a threshold where the diffusion rate leads to a qualitative shift in outcomes. For instance, mobile banking became viable once cell phones were widely adopted. As internet use spread, e-commerce flourished. These behavioral changes often precede institutional or market transformations. Gladwell extends this idea beyond technology. In elections, once support for a party exceeds 50%, it wins. He notes that while diffusion is typically a continuous process, tipping points are often binary outcomes—yes or no, on or off—that depend on reaching certain levels of adoption. Natural systems have tipping points too. When greenhouse gas concentrations reach critical levels, they may trigger irreversible climate events like ice sheet collapse. Human behavior, or cumulative emissions, drives natural tipping points, blending the social with the environmental.

Heterogeneity, Influencers, and Superspreaders
Gladwell highlights the importance of heterogeneity in driving diffusion. Epidemics spread via “superspreaders”; technologies spread through influencers. Identifying these catalysts is key to understanding and shaping diffusion. He illustrates this with the opioid crisis: Purdue Pharma downplayed addiction risks, targeting doctors likely to prescribe widely. In states with weak enforcement, like Florida and Ohio, mortality rates soared. Conversely, stronger monitoring in places like New York and Kentucky mitigated harm. The 2010 reformulation of OxyContin to deter abuse marked a tipping point: cutting off supply and accelerating the rise of fentanyl, a more dangerous synthetic alternative. Gladwell uses this to underscore how interventions, even well-intended ones, can have complex ripple effects.

Sequential Diffusion and Cultural Shifts
Diffusion often unfolds sequentially: awareness → attitude change → behavior change → tipping point. Gladwell offers the example of gay marriage, where media (especially television) played a pivotal role in changing attitudes. Will & Grace, watched by millions, helped normalize LGBTQ+ lives. This media-driven awareness contributed to legal and social acceptance, first in California, then across the U.S. Another example is Holocaust awareness. For decades, the topic received little public attention. The Eichmann trial, and later the hit TV series Holocaust, dramatically increased awareness, ultimately leading to the establishment of numerous memorial centers across the U.S.

Policy, Institutions, and Reinforcing Feedback
Understanding diffusion and tipping points is vital for effective policymaking. One example is the “broken windows” theory: enforcing minor laws builds a culture of respect for order, potentially deterring more serious crimes. This logic underpinned New York’s anti-crime efforts in the 1980s and 1990s—removing graffiti and arresting fare-beaters—which arguably helped tip the system toward better behavior. Ultimately, the spread of technologies, behaviors, and attitudes depends on individual choices, social networks, and institutional responses. These feedback loops shape and reshape society over time. Gladwell’s books blend narrative and insight, bringing academic findings to a broad audience while inspiring new theoretical and empirical work.

We saw that the spread of new technologies and attitudes depends on individual behavior, individual heterogeneity, and dynamic learning processes. The spread of new attitudes or technologies may lead to tipping points that result in new institutions and policies, which, in turn, will affect the spread of technologies and attitudes. These reinforcing processes affect policies and explain many of the changes within society. Understanding these issues combines both the results of scientific research and the insights of social thinkers like Gladwell. His tipping point books both educate the public and inspire researchers to develop new directions for research and new theories.