Labour gain Southmead as Lib Dems slip to third

Labour were celebrating a gain in Bristol last night as they took a seat in the Southmead ward from the Liberal Democrats. To add insult to injury the Lib Dems were pushed to a poor third behind the Conservatives, who appear to have ran a strong campaign in this by-election. Elsewhere, an Independent comfortably won a ward in North Somerset, replacing another Independent, and the Tories easily held a seat in Essex.

I'll start in Bristol where the Liberal Democrats made an unsuccessful defence of a seat in Southmead. The vacancy arose following the resignation of Cllr. Jacqueline Bowles due to ill health. It was a seat the Lib Dems snatched in 2009 when Labour in the doldrums so it seemed likely this would switch back. Bowles' margin of victory in 2009 was only 20 votes and a year later Labour easily held the other seat in Southmead on the General Election turnout.

Brenda Massey comfortably won the seat for Labour and she increased her party's share of the vote by 5.1% on last year's election. Although that was expected, the strength of the Conservative vote in this by-election came as a surprise. They managed to increase their vote share by 10.7% on the 2010 result, pushing the Liberal Democrats into a disappointing third. The Lib Dem vote was down 12.2% from last year and 17.1% on their victory in 2009.

During the naughties the Conservatives were consistently ahead of the Liberal Democrats in Southmead, which was a pretty safe Labour ward before they started to really struggle electorally in the later part of the last Parliament. Despite this the Tories found it difficult to get more that 25% of the vote and so their performance in this by-election is quite impressive.

The Liberal Democrats have been running Bristol as a minority administration since this May's elections and this result is unlikely to change this. The next partial council elections are due to take place in 2013.

Bristol City Council
LD		Lab			Con			Grn
32	-1	22	-		14	-		2		-
Southmead
By-Election Candidate				Votes			Vote %		+/-
Brenda Massey (E)				1109			45.5%		+5.1%
Rondo Brace				765			31.4%		+10.7%
Barry Cash				365			15.0%		-12.2%
Chris Millman				120			4.9%		+2.3%
Stephen Wright				77			3.2%		+0.6%

There was another by-election taking place last night just down the road from Bristol in Backwell, North Somerset. The vacancy was caused by the death of Independent Councillor Tom Collinson, who had won first his seat in 2007. Previous to that it had been a solid Conservative ward but Collinson, along with his running mate, changed that and the two Independents easily held their seats in May.

The sole Independent running in this by-election Geoff Coombs was endorsed by the sitting Independent and also happens to be the Chair of a Parish Council within the ward. All that, combined with the fact he was the only candidate who lived in the ward, made Coombs favourite to win this rural by-election and he didn't disappoint. Coombs received over 60% of the vote and there was little to suggest the Conservatives will be challenging for this seat anytime soon. Labour and the Liberal Democrats both fielded candidates when they didn't in May and neither made much of an impression.

The Conservatives have a huge majority on North Somerset Council with the next all-out elections due to take place in 2015.

Backwell (North Somerset)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Geoff Coombs (E)	816	61.7%	-5.6%
Peter Burden	314	23.7%	-8.9%
Terry Connell	124	9.4%	+9.4%
Nick Alderton	69	5.2%	+5.2%

The other by-election taking place yesterday was across the country in Essex. The vacancy in the Stock division was caused by the disqualification of the former Conservative Leader of the Council Lord Hanningfield as he was sentenced to nine months on jail for false accounting. He had claimed £14,000 for overnight stays in London when he was anywhere but, and the disgraced peer was finally ousted from the County Council when his appeal against the conviction was rejected.

Despite the fact the Conservatives had suspended Lord Hanningfield's membership when he was charged there was a chance his actions would affect their performance in this by-election. As it was they held the seat with ease and Ian Grundy's victory represented just 5% drop in vote share compared to the 2009 election. What was interesting in this by-election was the strong performance from UKIP, who polled 24% from nowhere. Given that we have generally seen their vote drop when compared to 2009 results, which took place on the same day as the European Union elections, it is interesting that they didn't field a candidate two years ago.

The Conservatives enjoy a large majority on Essex County Council with the next all out election due to take place in 2013.

Stock (Essex)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Ian Grundy (E)	1820	59.3%	-6.5%
Kesse Pryke	736	24.0%	+24.0%
Marian Elsden	160	5.2%	-7.3%
Maurice Austin	275	9.0%	+3.7%
Reza Hossain	80	2.6%	-6.1%

 

Tom Harris

By-Election Preview (8th September)

There are three by-elections taking place tomorrow, including two barely 10 miles apart from each other. The Liberal Democrats are defending Southmead, Bristol whilst just south west of the city a vacancy in Backwell, North Somerset will be filled. The third contest is taking place in Essex where the Conservatives will be hoping the disqualification of a peer jailed for fiddling his Parliamentary expenses doesn't prevent them from holding the seat.

I'll start in Bristol where a currently split ward is up for grabs. The by-election in the Southmead ward is taking place following the resignation of Liberal Democrat councillor Jacqueline Bowles due to ill health. She won her seat in 2009 by just 20 votes, ousting the sitting Labour Councillor in the process. A year later Labour comfortably won the other seat in the ward, with the General Election turnout working against the Lib Dems.

Given the drop in support for the Liberal Democrats since last May it will be a tough ask for them to hold this seat tomorrow. The 2009 result was a blip in what is general a solidly Labour ward and with this by-election it is likely to revert back to form.

The contest has sparked controversy locally as a row over a Liberal Democrat leaflet has broken out. In it the Lib Dems attack the Labour leader in Bristol, who coincidently was the former Southmead Councillor beaten by Bowles, with apparently little say about candidates running in the by-election.

The result of the by-election is unlikely to affect control of the Council as the Liberal Democrats currently run Bristol as a minority administration. Of course, losing another seat, on top of the five in May, will not help the Lib Dems with the next partial Council election due to take place in 2013.

Bristol City Council
LD	Lab	Con		Grn		Vac
32	21	14		2		1
Southmead
By-Election Candidate			2010		2009
Brenda Massey (Lab)			40.4%		31.4%
Barry Cash (LD)			27.2%		32.1%
Rondo Brace (Con)			20.7%		18.9%
N/C (BNP)			6.5%		0.0%
Chris Millman (Grn)			2.6%		6.2%
Stephen Wright (ED)			2.5%		11.4%

Despite being within 10 miles of each other geographically Southmead, Bristol and Backwell, North Somerset couldn't be further apart politically. Whilst the former is a working class urban ward the latter would a safe Conservative seat but for a strong Independent presence in recent years. The by-election in Backwell is taking place following the death of Independent Councillor Tom Collinson, who had won first his seat in 2007. With a particular focus on planning and highways issues Collinson, along with his running mate, secure two gains from the Tories which they successfully defended in 2011.

The Independent standing in the by-election Geoff Coombs has been endorsed by the other sitting Independent in Backwell and is the strong favourite to replace Collinson. Coombs is not only the Chairman of a Parish Council within the ward but he is also the only candidate who lives there. It seems fairly unlikely any of the political parties will be able to make a successful challenge against such a strong Independent.

Even if this by-election produces an upset the political balance of North Somerset is unlikely to be affected. The Conservatives enjoy a huge majority on the Council with the next full elections due to take place in 2015.

Backwell (North Somerset)
By-Election Candidate	2011
Geoff Coombs (Ind)	67.3%
Peter Burden (Con)	32.7%
Terry Connell (Lab)	0.0%
Nick Alderton (LD)	0.0%

The other by-election taking place this week is in Essex and the vacancy was caused by a fairly unusual reason. The Parliamentary Expenses scandal caused a Westminster by-election and countless MPs chose not to face re-election last year but the fate of one former Conservative Lord has resulted in a Council by-election. Lord Hanningfield had claimed up to £14,000 for overnight stays in London when he wasn't actually in the capital. Not only did the former shadow Business spokesman hold a seat in the Upper House of Parliament but also represented the Stock division on Essex County Council, as well as being the Council leader when he was charged in February last year.

Hanningford would have been disqualified from his Council seat when he was sentenced to 9 months in prison for false accounting but as he appealed against his conviction he was still technically a Councillor. Despite calls to resign he stuck it out, angering many in the local area as he was still claiming his Councillors allowance until the Council voted to suspend it. When his appeal was finally rejected a date was set to replace the disgraced ex-Tory peer.

Whilst all this may hurt the Conservatives in this by-election Cameron suspended Hanningford party membership when he was charged last February. As such he has spent the last year or so sat as an Independent and the local Tories will be hoping this will distance them from unsavoury circumstances leading this by-election. Their main advantage in this by-election is that it is difficult to see where a challenge will come from given that the Liberal Democrats were second in 2009 with just 12.5% of the vote. The Conservatives are likely to hang on to this almost by default.

The Conservatives enjoy a huge majority on Essex County Council so a surprise defeat will not affect the political balance. The next full Council elections are due to take place in 2013.

Stock (Essex)
By-Election Candidate	2009
Ian Grundy (Con)	65.7%
Marian Elsden (LD)	12.5%
Reza Hossain (Grn)	8.7%
N/C (BNP)	7.8%
Maurice Austin (Lab)	5.2%
Kesse Pryke (UKIP)	0.0%

Lib Dems win another by-election

The Liberal Democrats were celebrating their second principal authority by-election win in eight days as they gained the South Petherton division in Somerset from the Conservatives on Thursday. This follows their victory in Warrington last week where they held a ward they had lost to Labour in the 2010 and 2011 elections.

The vacancy in South Petherton was caused by the resignation of Conservative Councillor Anne Larpent, who is moving to Australia because of her husband's career. She won her seat in 2009 by a 94 vote margin but the Liberal Democrats attracted more support here than the Tories in this May's District Council elections. Paul Maxwell built on that performance to take the seat comfortably with a majority of 390 votes.

The win not only represented a 9.4% swing from the 2009 election but a swing of approximately 7% from the District elections just three months ago. Although the Liberal Democrats have won two by-elections since their disastrous May 5^th the previous victories were aided by controversial circumstances hindering their opponents. As far as I can tell there was no such help for the Lib Dems in this victory, which would indicate the 2011 elections may well have been the low point for the party. It has always been quite clear that their support has held up a lot better in areas where they have a strong local presence (this division is in David Laws' Yeovil constituency) and party activists must be buoyed by the fact that with a good campaign they can still win these marginal by-elections.

The Conservatives still enjoy an eight seat majority on Somerset County Council which they should hold until the next elections in 2013.

South Petherton (Somerset)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Paul Maxwell (E)	1333	53.6%	+13.3%
Paul Thompson	943	37.9%	-5.4%
Ian Greenfield	108	4.3%	-2.8%
Godfrey Davey	104	4.2%	+4.2%
N/C (Ind)	0	0.0%	-9.2%

In minor by-election news we heard that the Liberal Democrats also won a seat on Aberystwyth Town Council. The circumstances were a bit strange as the vacancy was caused by the resignation of a Councillor who was elected as a Lib Dem, resigned from the party, resigned from the Council and then contested the resulting by-election as an Independent! I'll send you over to Mark Cole's blog to read more about that result.

 

Tom Harris

By-Election Preview (4th August)

There is just one by-election taking place tomorrow but to keep us all entertained it should be a close one. The South Petherton division on Somerset County Council is vacant following the resignation of Conservative Councillor Anne Larpent, who is moving to Australia because of her husband's career. Larpent's gained the seat from the Liberal Democrats in 2009 with a victory margin of 94 votes but it will be tough for the Tories to hold this seat tomorrow. The division covers the South Petherton and Eggwood wards on the South Somerset District Council and in May, despite their generally poor performance, the Lib Dems received a slightly higher share of the vote than the Conservatives across the two wards.

Both the Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates for this by-election won District seats in this division earlier this year. Paul Thompson topped the poll for the Conservatives in the two-member South Petherton whilst Paul Maxwell held Eggwood for the Liberal Democrats. Interestingly, the Green candidate in this by-election contested this division in 2009 as an Independent despite the fact the Greens were also standing.

The Conservatives hold a comfortable majority in Somerset so although losing this seat would be disappointing they should keep control of the County Council until the next all out elections take place in 2013.

South Petherton (Somerset)
By-Election Candidate	2009
Paul Thompson (Con)	43.3%
Paul Maxwell (LD)	40.3%
N/C (Ind)	9.2%
Ian Greenfield (Grn)	7.2%
Godfrey Davey (UKIP)	-

The SNP juggernaut continues

There were no surprises in the two by-elections last Thursday as the Scottish Nationalists eased to a first round victory in Aberdeen and the Conservatives comfortably held their seat in Surrey. In both wards the Liberal Democrats came second at the previous election and their fortunes varied greatly in the two contests. Their sharp drop in Aberdeen was very much in line with the Scottish Parliament results earlier in the month but in Surrey their vote share held up much better than the recent local election results would have suggested.

We'll start in Scotland where the SNP stormed to victory in the Dyce by-election, winning the seat on first preference votes alone. The victory was made on an emphatic swing, largely from the Liberal Democrats to the SNP as was seen across the country at the Holyrood elections. The SNP's share of first preference votes rose by over 15% compared to 2007, while the Liberal Democrats fell by the same percentage. The Labour, Conservative and Green shares remained more or less the same as four years ago.

This will be seen as a good omen to the SNP, who are already looking to next year's local elections with aspirations of maintaining their momentum to take control of councils across Scotland. It will also give them encouragement for another by-election being held in Aberdeen next month, in the Airyhall, Broomhill and Garthdee ward, where they narrowly failed to win a seat in 2007.

This gain from the Liberal Democrats has turned the SNP into the largest party on Aberdeen City Council, and already they have called on the current council leader to resign to allow the SNP to take overall control of the administration. It is as yet unclear whether the Lib Dem council leader will accept these calls, and if he does then whether his party would be willing to continue in coalition with the SNP. KK

Aberdeen City Council
SNP		LD		LAB		CON			ACN*			IND			VAC
14	+1	13	-1	10	-	2		-	2	-		1	-		1	-
Dyce/Bucksburn/Danestone
By-Election Candidate							Votes				Vote %			+/-
Neil MacGregor (E)							2090				51.4%			+15.2%
Graeme Lawrence							941				23.1%			-1.8%
Kristian Chapman							446				11.0%			-15.2%
Ross Thomson							352				8.7%			+0.3%
Angela Joss							150				3.7%			+3.7%
Rhonda Reekie							88				2.2%			+0.1%

Compared to the Scottish result the Liberal Democrats' vote was surprisingly resilient in Surrey. Having fallen 63 votes short of winning the St Johns & Brookwood County Council ward in 2009 this is the sort of by-election the Lib Dems would be looking to win in recent years but circumstances have changed over the past six months or so and a strong second would have been a welcome relief. They managed that much, although the Conservatives' enjoyed a 4.4% swing to them from their national coalition partners as they held the seat comfortable.

The movement in vote share was surprisingly orderly as the Tories 6% increase was mirrored in UKIPs 6% decreased. Given that the last election in this ward took place on the same day as the 2009 European Election, when UKIP came second nationally, this is more a reflection on their good performance two years ago. The Liberal Democrats lost 3% on their 2009 result which was seemingly picked up by Labour, who overtook UKIP for 3^rd place. Linda Kemeny's 285 vote win increased the Tories majority on Surrey County Council to 32. TH

St Johns & Brookwood (Surrey)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Linda Kemeny (E)	1343	48.9%	+5.9%
Tina Liddington	1058	38.6%	-2.9%
Janice Worgan	188	6.9%	+3.1%
Duncan Clarke	155	5.6%	-6.1%

By-Election Preview (19th May)

So after the bumper night at the start of the month we're back with our by-election coverage. There are two this week; one in Surrey and one in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats will be the focus as they have a difficult defence in Aberdeen and in recent years they have run the Conservatives close in the vacant Surrey ward.

We'll start in Scotland with the first by-election in Scotland since the SNP's landslide win in the Scottish parliamentary elections two weeks ago. A vacancy arose in the four-member Dyce, Buckburn and Danestone ward due to the death of Lib Dem Cllr Ron Clark.

The SNP only fielded one candidate in most wards in the first council elections run under the new Single Transferable Vote system, creating a false-winner effect when many of their candidates won nearly two quotas on first preferences alone. The result from Dyce last time was:

	COUNT
	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
SNP	2,620
Labour	1,801	1,801
Lib Dem	1,534	1,534	1,534
Conservative	603	701	730	738	752	781	833
Lib Dem #2	360	593	667	713	727	769	885
Green	147	298	330	335	348	409
Independent #1	116	190	211	214	260
Independent #2	57	117	131	133

The quota was 1,448 with the first three seats being won by the SNP, Labour and Liberal Democrats on first preferences alone. The Conservatives were ahead to win the fourth seat until the final round where the Green votes transferred strongly in favour of the second Liberal Democrat candidate.

On 2007 first preference totals alone, the SNP should be expected to win this seat easily. Their council coalition partners, the Lib Dems, had the second largest total of first preferences between their two candidates, with Labour not far behind them.

Dyce/Bucksburn/Danestone
By-Election Candidate	2007
Neil MacGregor (SNP)	36.2%
Kristian Chapman (LD)	26.1%
Graeme Lawrence (LAB)	24.9%
Ross Thomson (CON)	8.3%
Rhonda Reekie (GRN)	2.0%
N/C (IND)	1.6%
N/C (IND)	0.8%
Angela Joss (IND)	0.0%

There could be a local backlash against the SNP and the Lib Dems over council spending cuts, but we are more likely to see a great squeeze in the Lib Dem vote with the SNP benefiting, as was the national picture in the parliamentary elections two weeks ago. The Lib Dems are also facing other problems in the city with another sitting councillor Gordon Leslie admitting in court to loitering in the city's red light district.

In the Parliamentary elections, the SNP held the Aberdeen North constituency containing this ward with a vastly increased majority. Across the North East Scotland region as a whole they managed to win every single constituency and still gain a top-up seat on the regional list, something Labour has never been able to do even in its strongholds of Glasgow or Central Scotland. The scale of the SNP win tonight will help to determine whether that result was something the SNP can sustain through to next year's local elections or whether it was more of a flash in the pan event.

Aberdeen City Council has a total of 43 councillors elected across 13 wards by the Single Transferable Vote method of proportional representation. The council is currently run by a Liberal Democrat-SNP coalition, who have increasingly come under attack for making heavy spending cuts made to fill a large deficit in the council budget. The current composition of the council is:

Aberdeen City Council
SNP	LD	LAB	CON	A-CON*	IND	VAC*
13	13	10	2	2	1	2

If the SNP do win, it would turn them from being junior coalition partners to the larger coalition party, which could have a knock on effect in terms of the council leadership and committee posts. However, there is unlikely to be any change in the administration as a whole, and the result is likely to end up reflecting what should have happened back in 2007 if the SNP had stood two candidates for this ward. KK

 

The other by-election taking place today is in the South East, more specifically the St Johns & Brookwood ward for the Surrey County Council. The vacancy has arisen following the resignation of the Conservative Councillor Elizabeth Compton, apparently to prevent the 6 month rule getting invoked against her. In 2009 Compton just managed to hang on to her seat by a margin of 63 votes from her Liberal Democrat challenger. This is the sort of by-election that the Lib Dems would expect to perform well in but given their performance in this month's local elections a gain won't be easy.

Only one of the two wards that make up this County seat was up for election this year and both the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives saw their vote share reduced in St John's and Hook Heath following the addition of a Labour candidate. This ward is very safe for the Tories and the marginal Brookwood would have been a better gauge of the Liberal Democrat's prospects, but if Labour take votes off both coalition partners then it could still be tight. The Tories have a big majority on the County Council so if they do fail to hold this seat it won't affect the political balance. TH

St Johns & Brookwood (Surrey)
By-Election Candidate	2009
Linda Kemeny (CON)	43.0%
Tina Liddington (LD)	41.4%
Duncan Clarke (UKIP)	11.8%
Janice Worgan (LAB)	3.8%

 

* The Conservative Group in Aberdeen split in half (2 'Scottish' Conservatives and 2 'Aberdeen' Conservatives) after a dispute over committee posts, but both groups remain recognised as official Conservative councillors by their own party. There is also another vacancy in Airyhall, Broomhill and Garthdee ward due to be filled in a by-election on 23 June.