A very big deal for kids

 Child poverty is expensive. According to a 2018 article in the journal Social Work Research, it costs the U.S. over $1 trillion a year, or around 5.4% of the country’s gross domestic product.

Contributing factors to that price tag are things like loss of economic productivity, costs associated with increased health care needs and contacts with the legal system, homelessness and mistreatment.

That may sound like a lot, but tons of solid research has emerged over the last several years about the long-term effects of adverse childhood experiences on social/emotional/cognitive development as well as health, substance use disorder, incarceration and lowered economic outcomes.

While not every child who experiences poverty has a lot of adverse childhood experiences —and many kids not in poverty have plenty — these experiences are strongly associated with economic hardship and poverty, both in childhood and later in life.

Conversely, economic supports and a positive cash flow are protective factors from many of these negative outcomes. Poverty may not directly cause all of them, but it can make everything worse.

For that matter, our relative position within a given society, even if we’re not at the very bottom, has a lot of impact on how healthy we are and how long we’ll live.

The decades-long public health research of British epidemiologist Michael Marmot, author of “The Status Syndrome: How Social Status Affects Our Health and Longevity” and other books, has identified some basic factors at work here.

The short version is we’re social animals who need a degree of autonomy or control over our lives to thrive.

And we crave the ability to fully participate in the society in which we live. Lack of one or both increases the fight-flight-or-freeze stress response, which is adaptive for short term dangers like a tiger attack but deadly in the long term.

One experiment really opened my eyes to the long-term effects of low socioeconomic status in childhood. Nearly 200 healthy volunteers were exposed to rhinovirus, which causes the common cold. They were also surveyed about their family background and experiences and then were observed for several days.

Amazingly, those whose parents didn’t own their homes or owned it for a shorter period in childhood were more likely to get sick — and this effect was independent of the volunteers’ current age, sex, race, body mass or socioeconomic status.

It seems that these experiences engrave themselves on our bodies whether we’re aware of the impact or not.

That would be the bad news. The good news is that, thanks to a provision of the federal American Rescue Plan, child poverty is about to drop by nearly half. Right now. The only questions are how well we do at signing people up for the right help and how long the program lasts.

The American Rescue Plan expanded the federal Child Tax Credit and made it refundable for most families, to the tune of $250 per month for kids aged 6-17 and $300 for those under 6, including newborns.

In terms of impact, this could be as huge as the enactment of Social Security in 1935, Medicare and Medicaid in 1965, or the Affordable Care Act of 2010. According to Social Work Research, “it is estimated that for every dollar spent on reducing childhood poverty, the country would save at least $7 with respect to the economic costs of poverty.”

Most families won’t have to do a thing to qualify for the credit, provided the adults file tax returns with the IRS. Fully 35.2 million American families received the first installment on July 15. It’s also estimated that 346,000 West Virginia children, 93% of all children in the state, qualify for the credit.

However, those who are in greatest danger of missing out are those who need it most. It’s been estimated that as many as four million American families might be eligible for the credit but didn’t file income taxes due to low earnings. It’s hard to know the exact numbers of such families in West Virginia, which has more than its share of low-income families, but we’re clearly talking about thousands of kids and tens of millions of dollars.

The IRS created an online portal for non-tax filers and they’ve tried to keep it as simple as possible, but it does require basic information, including things like an email address and Social Security numbers.

Some families, especially those without broadband, may need help in applying.

Fortunately, the American Rescue Plan offers a potential solution. The state of West Virginia will receive a total of $1.35 billion in federal aid, while city and county governments will receive around $677 million to address the impacts of the pandemic, including economic hardships. If even a small fraction of that funding could support outreach, including paying navigators to help sign people up, it could make a huge difference.

In addition, community groups, places of worship and public agencies such as libraries could all play a role in improving the lives of West Virginia’s children by helping to get the word out. Probably the biggest opportunity to reach those who are missing out will come as kids go back to school.

Mahatma Gandhi famously called poverty “the worst form of violence.” We should make the most of this chance to dramatically reduce its toll. And fight like hell to make that permanent.

(This appeared as an op-ed in the Charleston Gazette-Mail.)

On this day in history

On this day in 1935, President Franklin Roosevelt signed the Social Security Act. At the time, he said,

"This law represents a cornerstone in a structure which is being built but is by no means completed--a structure intended to lessen the force of possible future depressions, to act as a protection to future administrations of the Government against the necessity of going deeply into debt to furnish relief to the needy--a law to flatten out the peaks and valleys of deflation and of inflation--in other words, a law that will take care of human needs and at the same time provide for the United States an economic structure of vastly greater soundness."

It worked. And it needs to be protected.

Wayne's World for Wonks

A little while back, a friend suggested that we as in AFSC and our allies start doing regular webinar type thingies on issues in play in the legislature for people who can't get to Charleston. Or for people who could get there but would rather not.

To that end, co-worker Lida Shepherd and I have started experimenting with Facebook Live. Here is our latest effort, modestly titled SNAP Smackdown. It's about some of the bad legislation regarding food assistance making its way through the legislature.

We went for a "Wayne's World for Policy Wonks" vibe, with some Saturday Night Live-inspired visual stunts at the end. Major props to Melissa McCarthy!

In case of extreme boredom, take a look or listen.

We're planning another one in a week to deal with some really bad tax proposals and are already looking for more cheap visual stunts. I'm thinking eggs, snapping turtles, toy bats to start with...

Fashion

El Cabrero has been wandering through Thoreau's Walden again lately and this time around particularly enjoyed his comments on clothing, a topic towards which I have been pretty oblivious.

The main things I look for in an outfit is that it not be too formal or dressy as such forms of raiment generally suck my will to live. Beyond that, I'm pretty content if what I have to wear is something I can run, kick or generally move around in. Old clothes work particularly well for these purposes.

For that reason, I've always loved this saying of his:

I say, beware of all enterprises that require new clothes, and not rather a new wearer of clothes. If there is not a new man, how can the new clothes be made to fit? If you have any enterprise before you, try it in your old clothes. All men want, not something to do with, but something to do, or rather something to be. Perhaps we should never procure a new suit, however ragged or dirty the old, until we have so conducted, so enterprised or sailed in some way, that we feel like new men in the old, and that to retain it would be like keeping new wine in old bottles.

(I did buy new karate gis for the Okinawa trip, but I think that would meet his criteria.)

Historically speaking, clothing has often been more about displaying social status than protection from the elements, comfort or even aesthetics. Some societies even had sumptuary laws, which specified exactly who could wear what. Thoreau once again had a great zinger on this point:

It is an interesting question how far men would retain their relative rank if they were divested of their clothes. Could you, in such a case, tell surely of any company of civilized men, which belonged to the most respected class?

(That reminds me of an old joke which suggests that such a practice at weddings might lead to a re-evaluation of the term "best man.")

Here's one last jab at the world of high fashion, which may or may not have changed all that much since his time (not that I would know):

The head monkey at Paris puts on a traveler's cap, and all the monkeys in America do the same.

AN OXYMORON? In the wake of the BP Gulf disaster, Presidenet Obama has vowed to push for a clean energy bill.

DISPARITIES. A new report highlights a huge wealth gap along gender and racial lines.

EDUCATION REFORM is all the rage these days. Here are some things to think about during the "race to the top." Meanwhile,it looks like the rush to reform has slowed down in West Virginia.

WONK TALL. West Virginia policy wonks have a new blog to follow. It's brought to you by the WV Center on Budget and Policy.

A GRAND ILLUSION. One study suggests that the morning coffee boost may be an illusion. Fine. I need at least three cups of illusion each morning.

GOAT ROPE ADVISORY LEVEL: ELEVATED

There and gone

The theme at Goat Rope lately is Shakespeare's Hamlet, along with the usual links and comments about current events. But before I go on, I want to pass on a "deep" thought that occurred to me about the theater.

WARNING: Some thoughts that seemed deep to me at the time turned out to be either total gibberish or else totally obvious-- like the time I was blown away by the fact that every time there were three cats in a room they would make a triangle if you drew line segments between them. (OK, I'm embarrassed, but what can I say?)

Anyway, here is my my deep and quasi-Buddhist thought about theater: the coolest thing about it is its impermanence. First there is nothing, just an empty stage. Then a more or less magical performance. Then the stage is struck and it's empty again with no residue.

Not there, then all there, then all gone. Just like us. And everything else.

EASY CHOICES. Here's an op-ed by yours truly about policy options for helping WV get through the Great Recession.

HAITI. This is the latest on the American Friends Service Committee's Haiti relief efforts, along with background on its approach.

NIGHTMARES, EARTHQUAKES, HAITI AND MORE are on the menu in the latest edition of the Rev. Jim Lewis' Notes from Under the Fig Tree.

CLIMATE CHANGE. This NY Times editorial argues for the benefits of a climate change bill.

GOAT ROPE ADVISORY LEVEL: ELEVATED

Virtu and fortuna

Goat Rope has been looking at public policy and how it happens these days. It occurred to me (not for the first time) that the author of Ecclesiastes was right about there being nothing new under the sun.

Some of the wisest words ever written about political strategy come from my old pal and sometime patron saint Niccolo Machiavelli, who admittedly does have a bit of a PR problem.

But let's put in in context. In his book Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policy, political scientist John Kingdon looks at how public policy gets made. His most interesting idea--and one that rings true in my experience--is that there are policy windows that open sometimes. When they're open, you have a chance at getting things done and when they close, you don't. (Speaking of which, the jury is still out on the window for health care reform.)

A policy window could be a crisis, a change in mood following an election, the expiration of a piece of legislation that has to be revisited, or any number of things. Sometimes--rarely--you know in advance when a window might open. Most of the time you don't. That means you need to do a lot of preparation in advance to be able to seize the moment when it comes.

In his classic The Prince, Machiavelli talked about virtu and Fortuna. Virtu basically means the voluntary things we have control of while Fortuna referred to the unexpected opportunities that might come along. Machiavelli believed that we could at least anticipate and prepare for these opportunities:

...I think it may be true that fortune is the ruler of half our actions, but that she allows the other half or thereabouts to be governed by us. I would compare her to an impetuous river that, when turbulent, inundates the plains, casts down trees and buildings, removes earth from this side and places it on the other; everyone flees before it, and everything yields to its fury without being able to oppose it; and yet though it is of such a kind, still when it is quiet, men can make provisions against it by dykes and banks, so that when it rises it will either go into a canal or its rush will not be so wild and dangerous. So it is with fortune, which shows her power where no measures have been taken to resist her, and directs her fury where she knows that no dykes or barriers have been made to hold her.

The key to success, in Machiavelli's day as in our own, is the matching of virtu to Fortuna, which above all means adapting to the needs and opportunities of the moment:

...the prince who bases himself entirely on fortune is ruined when fortune changes. I also believe that he is happy whose mode of procedure accords with the needs of the times, and similarly he is unfortunate whose mode of procedure is opposed to the times....

I therefore conclude then that fortune varying and men remaining fixed in their ways, they are successful so long as these ways conform to circumstances, but when they are opposed then they are unsuccessful.

FORTUNA IS FICKLE. Here's reaction from the AFL to the health care reform goat rope in the Senate.

ANOTHER VIEW. Krugman says pass it.

A STATE VIEW of what reform, especially Medicaid expansion, would mean to WV is given here.

COOL VIEW of an undersea volcanic eruption here.

GOAT ROPE ADVISORY LEVEL: ELEVATED

Catching the wave

The eminent philosopher Tom Petty was right: the waiting is the hardest part. But it also seems to be an indispensable part of working for social change. It's like learning to fall in judo--if you aren't willing to do it you might as well stay off the mat.

As an analyst told political scientist John Kingdon in Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies,

When you lobby for something, what you have to do is put together your coalition, you have to gear up, you have to get your political forces in line, and then you sit there and wait for the fortuitous event....As I see it, people who are trying to advocate change are like surfers waiting for the big wave. You get out there, you have to be ready to go, you have to be ready to paddle. If you're not ready to paddle when the big wave comes along, you're not going to ride it in.

That pretty much says it all.

SPEAKING OF GOAT ROPES, how 'bout the health care mess in the Senate?

AS DISAPPOINTING AS THE SENATE BILL IS, it would be huge for El Cabrero's beloved state of West Virginia.

JOBS, JOBS, JOBS. Here's labor's five point plan for generating them.

TICKING CLOCK. Jobless workers are about to lose health insurance subsidies unless those are extended.

HOW'S THE FISHING? A big planet with lots of water has been found not too far away (in cosmic terms).

GOAT ROPE ADVISORY LEVEL: ELEVATED

Softening up the target

The theme at Goat Rope these days is public policy and how it happens (or doesn't). If you're interested in this kind of thing, please click on earlier posts. You'll also find links and comments about current events.

Political scientist John Kingdon's Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies looks at the political ecosystem from major players like presidents and senators down to humble policy wonks. We're on the wonk part now.

One pleasant surprise for me in reading Kingdon's analysis is his assertion that ideas actually matter (to a degree anyway). This is especially true in what he calls the policy community, which consists of interest groups, think tanks, academics and others interested in this kind of thing.

You might think that policy ideas are developed as solutions to particular problems. Kingdon agrees that this happens, but also maintains that "people in and around government sometimes do not solve problems. Instead, they become advocates for solutions and look for current problems to which to attach their pet solution."

Just because one has a viable idea that holds up well to arguments and critiques, it doesn't follow that it will become a reality--but it might. The next phase involves what he calls "softening up:"

To some degree ideas float freely through the policy primeval soup. But their advocates do not allow the process to be completely free-floating. In addition to starting discussion of their proposals, they push their ideas in many different forums. These entrepreneurs attempt to "soften up" both policy communities, which tend to be inertia-bound and resistant to major changes, and larger publics, getting them used to new ideas and building acceptance for their proposals. Without this preliminary work, a proposal sprung even at a propitious time is likely to fall on deaf ears.

That rings true in my experience of working at the state level. Once you've developed an idea, you need to get it out there to all kinds of people in all kinds of ways for it to stand a change of going anywhere. This involves both public education and coalition building. Sometimes this can take years.

IT'S TOUGH OUT THERE. A new poll of unemployed workers shows the damage done by the recession.

AFGHANISTAN. Economist Jeffrey Sachs suggests a different approach in that country.

ANOTHER TOOL USING ANIMAL. Would you believe the octopus?

GOAT ROPE ADVISORY LEVEL: ELEVATED

Policy entrepreneurs

Arpad is quite the entrepreneur during deer season. This picture represents his idea of heaven.

The theme at Goat Rope lately has been public policy and how it happens or doesn't, although you'll also find links and comments about current events. As mentioned previously, one of the most useful explorations of this area is John Kingdon's Agendas, Alternatives and Public Policies, which was written in the 1980s but still holds up pretty well.

And, while Kingdon was writing primarily about federal policies, it seems to fit pretty well at the state level as well. To recap, usually it's the political big dogs who get to set the agenda, which is basically what's on the table for legislation at any given time. They tend to be big picture people responding to what they consider to be a major problem.

The specific policy alternatives, for example how to reform health care, are often developed by people in a less visible position, such as congressional and administration staffers, researchers, etc.

Before anything makes it to that stage, ideas continually emerge and recombine in what he called "the primeval soup" of the policy community, which consists of wonks, interest groups, academics, etc.

Kingdon identifies one group in which I must claim membership which he calls "policy entrepreneurs" who advocate for specific options. He says that these

are not necessarily found in any one location in the policy community. They could be in or out of government, in elected or appointed positions, in interest groups or research organizations. But their defining characteristic, much as in the case of a business entrepreneur, is their willingness to invest their resources--time, energy, reputation, and sometimes money--in the hope of a future return. That return might come to them in the form of policies of which they approve, satisfaction from participation, or even personal aggrandizement in the form of job security or career promotion.

In his view, policy entrepreneurs have different motivations. For some, it might be the advancement of personal interest, while for others it might be attempting to promote their values or the sheer fun of the game.

(Personally, I like it when you are trying to do something that is rational, doable and in the interests of low income and working people. But, yes, the game can be kind of fun.)

More later.

A DOG THAT DON'T HUNT. The Associated Press conducted an exhaustive survey of all the intercepted "climategate" emails and concludes that the science of global warming is still solid.

GO BYRD. This op-ed by yours truly attempted to send some love to WV's senior senator for his recent statement on the future of coal in this state.

LESSONS LEARNED? Here's Krugman on reforms in banking and finance.

MONKEY SAY, MONKEY DO. Here's more on the "language" of certain monkeys.

GOAT ROPE ADVISORY LEVEL: ELEVATED

There is a tide...

El Cabrero spends a good bit of time working on public policy issues at the state and federal level. I find it fascinating that some issues seem to rise to the surface and get a lot of attention while others--often very important ones--don't.

Sometimes, when issues get "hot," the result can be the passage of significant legislation, but other times they fade from public view for years, decades or even for good.

Sometimes openings exist to get things done and other times they don't. When an opening occurs, one needs to be able to act swiftly and skillfully. And when there is no immediate opening to accomplish a particular goal, the best one can often do is lay the groundwork to take advantage of an opening when it eventually occurs.

It kind of reminds me of these lines spoken by Brutus in Shakespeare's Julius Caesar:

There is a tide in the affairs of men.
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat,
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures.

Over the next few days, I'm going to try to follow that thread through the labyrinth. I just hope I don't get eaten by the Minotaur...

THE STIGMA IS FADING FAST about food stamp usage, as the NY Times reports. Nowadays, one in eight Americans and one in four children are depending on them.

JOBS! In this op-ed, Paul Krugman calls for direct public sector job creation.

DEFICIT DISORDER, REVISITED. Here's economist Dean Baker talking sense on the federal deficit.

STATUS AND US. This op-ed by yours truly on the social determinants of health came out in the Gazette and Common Dreams yesterday.

LABOR. This Gazette article looks at the future of the labor movement in WV.

GOAT ROPE ADVISORY LEVEL: ELEVATED

PILLAR TALK

Samson shows the way.

El Cabrero is convinced that there's a lot we can learn from the study of conflict and strategy that can help make the world less violent and more just. That was pretty much the theme last week.

This week I'm continuing in the same vein. Think of it as a peaceful person's guide to Sun Tzu's Art of War. People from all walks of life have been studying his writings for centuries for their application in many areas of life far removed from physical conflict.

First a little review. As I mentioned before, Sun Tzu believed that the highest level of skill in conflict is to accomplish your objective without a fight.

Sun Tzu also believed that attacking one's opponents is one of the least effective approaches. The best approach is to attack the opponent's strategy, as explained here. If one neutralizes an opponent's strategy, the opponent is neutralized without being attacked.

He taught that the next best policy is to attack the opponent's alliances. This is one of several areas where his thinking meshes perfectly with the theory of nonviolent action.

According to the latter, power is not monolithic and dominant groups are not as unified as they may appear to be. There are always tensions and contradictions. Even the most absolute dictator depends for his power on the active or passive cooperation of many people. Robert Helvey in his book on nonviolence refers to these as "pillars of support."

When the pillars of support--what Sun Tzu called alliances--are removed, the power collapses.

At a less extreme level, attempting to influence public affairs in a democracy involves trying to win over people to one's point of view and isolate one's opponent. Again, this is a matter of removing their pillars of support or attacking alliances. One mark of a good strategy is that it creates more support for your position, neutralizes some who were inclined to oppose it, and isolates one's determined opponents. Vice versa for a bad one.

More on this tomorrow.

SPEAKING OF PILLARS OF SUPPORT, this study of public opinion on the state of the economy shows that there's not much holding up the Bush agenda.

WHAT RECESSION? Here's an item from the AFLCIO blog about the current state of the economy with plenty of links that suggest what to do about it. And here's Krugman on the candidate's response to recession.

A NEW DIRECTION. In a new report, the Center for American Progress lays out an agenda for progressive growth. Here's an extract:

To grow our economy and ensure that everyone has an opportunity to benefit from this growth, we need to rebuild our infrastructure to support the transformation to a low-carbon economy, invest in human capital, and help support greater economic security. We believe our nation cannot afford to wait to make these necessary investments—in universal health care, education and lifelong learning, science and technology innovation, new green energy job training programs, and new wealth-creating opportunities for all Americans—if we want our economy to remain thoroughly competitive in the global marketplace.

THE MORAL SENSE. Here's a long but fascinating article on the scientific study of morality by Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker.

SAD HOMECOMINGS. This feature from the NY Times shows that the traumas US veterans faced in Iraq and Afghanistan have followed some of them home.

GOAT ROPE ADVISORY LEVEL: ELEVATED