Five Questions I Made Up About the 2015-16 Tampa Bay Lightning

Here it is, mere hours before the puck is dropped on the Tampa Bay Lightning's 2015-16 season, and I haven't written a proper season preview. Well guess what, I'm still not going to write a “proper” preview, because there are plenty already out there for you to read. Besides, I'm horrible at predictions. Let's say the Lightning are going to finish somewhere in the top 8 in the Eastern Conference and they will be eliminated in the second round of the playoffs.

Now that we got that out of the way, he is what I'm going to give to you, my loyal readers. A bunch of questions that I am literally thinking up as I'm typing. See you don't have to do outlines or actually think of layout and all of that stuff to be a writer. Just make it up as you go along. Let's get started:

Will a member of the Lightning win a major award?

Not bloody likely. I think Victor Hedman (Norris) and Steven Stamkos (Rocket Richard) have the best shots, but I wouldn't lay money on either one of them. Hedman is always going to be an underdog as long as Duncan Keith (traditional defenseman) is playing 45 minutes a game and Erik Karlson (high-scoring defenseman) is leading Ottawa in scoring. Also, Hedman (did you know Olof is one of his middle names?) has that annoying habit of getting hurt just as he's starting to find he groove. I do think he will win one in the future (after all he's only 24 years old).

Speaking of people still in their mid-20s, Steven Stamkos is in a contract year. Not sure if you've heard about that or not. Superstar players in their contract years have a tendency of producing, at least they did before teams got into the annoying habit of signing their stars to long term deals well before they had a chance to test the free agent market.

Stamkos scored 43 goals last season. In every season that's he's played 82 games he's scored at least 40 goals with the 60 he scored in 2011-12 being his high water mark. Based on what we've seen in the pre-season it looks like he will have to adjust to a new linemate. Luckily that linemate seems to be pretty talented at passing the puck. Having fully recovered from the broken leg suffered a few seasons ago in Boston, look for the former Sarnia Sting forward to challenge the 50 goal mark this season.

With no rookies starting the season on the active roster, it appears Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel don't have to worry about anyone from Tampa challenging them for the Calder.

Will Jonathan Drouin score more points than Johnny Gaudreau?

Remember that talented linemate for Stamkos that I just mentioned. His name is Jonathan (call him Jo) Drouin. Drouin spent most of last season mired on Brian Boyle's line as he learned the boring art of two-way hockey. Even though most of his13 minutes spent on the ice every game was spent not being amazing he managed to rack up a respectable 32 points.

This season it looks like he's going to get the chance to skate with Stamkos and either Alex Killorn (15 goals) or Ryan Callahan (24 goals). That is going to give him a tremendous opportunity to pile up the points, defense be damned. Well, ok, not damned. Because if that happens he's back on the bench, Coach Cooper does demand a bit of responsibility on the ice. Still, if there was an award for best 2^nd year player I'd lay my money on Drouin.

He's already made a lot of the “breakout stars” lists that have been floating around the internet. Which is much better to read than, “Are the Lightning going to trade Drouin?” Whatever was the fatal flaw that kept him out of playoff games last season seems to have been corrected based on his playing time so far in the pre-season. Of course, Coach Cooper could have just been messing with us and Drouin will start game one with Boyle and Erik Condra (per Erik Erlendsson Drouin was skating with Stamkos and Callahan). Which would still be an improvement over Boyle and the skating corpse of Brenden Morrow.

By the way, when I started typing this question I really thought Gaudreau or Filip Forsberg won the Calder trophy last year. Totally forgot that it was Aaron Ekblad. As for “Johnny Hockey” I think he's primed for a bit of regression as the league gets wise to Calgary this season.

Will Kevin Poulin get more wins in a Lightning uniform than Evgeni Nabokov?

Sweet Jesus I hope not. Nabokov, signed as a veteran influence and back up goalie, appeared in 11 games and won 3 of them before being put on waivers and traded for future considerations to San Jose in February. Part of the reason he was let go was because it was obvious he just couldn't cut it as a NHL goalie at that stage in his life. Also, there was a young prospect by the name of Andrei Vasilevskiy waiting in the wings.

Vasya proved that he could hold down the net on a part time basis over the second half of the year. So I'm sure it was with great relief that General Manager Steve Yzerman started the off-season without having to look through the bargain bin sales for a back-up goalie. Unfortunately in August, Vasilevskiy's blood cells got too chummy with each other and he had to have surgery to remove blood clots in his shoulder. That procedure has him sidelined until at least early November.

Mr. Yzerman went into scramble mode and signed Ray Emery to a camp tryout, where he didn't actually play that bad from what I read. However, instead of signing the veteran, Mr. Yzerman cut him and traded for Poulin. Now the former New York Islander (who once beat the Lightning 2-1 in a shootout back in 2014) will back up Ben Bishop as the season gets under way.

Bishop is a bit of a workhorse having played in 63 and 62 games in each of the two seasons he's been the starter for the Lightning. The Lightning do have two back-to-back games schedule in October (12^th and 13^th and 23^rd and 24^th) so look for Poulin to have at least two starts this month. Should Vasya continue to heal in an appropriate manner, the most starts I could see Poulin getting would be 4-5.

Of course, this is assuming Bishop stays healthy. The big netminder (who is only 4 wins away from taking over the all-time franchise lead) suffered through an injury during the Stanley Cup Finals last spring. If he were to re-injure his groin, or suffer a new malady, things could go off the rails quickly for the Lightning. If that were to happen, Poulin would probably split time with Kristers Gudlevskis until Vasilevskiy is healthy.

Will anyone other than Bishop take over the all-time franchise lead in any major stat category?

There is a decent chance that at the end of the season Bishop will be able to lay claim to the title of Greatest Goalie in Lightning history as he has a shot at the wins, shut-outs, goals against and save percentage categories. On the offensive side, it looks like Vincent Lecavalier and Marty St. Louis are safe.

Stamkos trails Lecavalier by 107 goals and 455 points so I don't think he's nicking those leads anytime soon. A strong season on the power play may get him on top of that chart as he only trails Vinny by 8 power play goals.

Will The Triplets spend the entire season together as a line?

The knee-jerk reactions to this is, “Of course not. Are you high?” Let me tell you that I am not under the influence of anything stronger than beer (my one and only Southern Tier Pumking of the year. I tend to like the Christmasy beers more than the pumpkin beers).

In all likelihood Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat and MY BOY NIKITA KUCHEROV! will stay together as much as possible for the season. However, should the offense struggle at any point during the season I wouldn't be surprised to see Coach Cooper shuffle things around. With Drouin looking to take on a bigger role with the offense that drops some very talented people down to the “third” line.

Per Erik Erlendsson Alex Killorn is skating with Valteri Filppula and newcomer Erik Condra in the pre-game rushes for Thursday. Killorn spent most of last season on Stamkos' line and Filppula has the talent to skate on the top two lines as well. That's a lot of pieces to shuffle around.

Should something stagnate or MBNK doesn't score on 15% of his shots, would Coach Cooper be tempted to try Drouin with Johnson or Filppula with Palat to shake things up? Long time Lightning fans might remember the endless flip-flopping of St. Louis between Lecavalier's line and Brad Richards line or between Lecavalier and Stamkos despite the success Lecavalier had with Marty.

And let's not forget to factor in the injury situation. Tyler Johnson played a good portion of the Finals with a broken wrist. While he claims to be 100% ready to go, wrist injuries (along with back and foot) tend to linger a bit longer. Again for an example see Vincent Lecavalier. If he is bothered by the wrist and needs to miss anytime then does Coach Cooper blow the whole line up or just slot Filppula or Vlad Namestnikov* into his place?

So, there are five things I'll be watching over the next six months. Who knows, at the end of the season I might even come back and revisit some of these questions to see what actually happened.

Other predictions:

I think Montreal win the Eastern Conference and loses to Anaheim in the Finals.

Conner McDavid wins the Calder and keeps Edmonton in contention for a playoff spot until late in the season.

Phil Kessel scores 35 goals, finds chemistry with Evgeni Malkin forcing the Penguins to find yet another winger for Sidney Crosby. At the deadline they trade their first round pick to Arizona for Shane Doan.

Buffalo and Florida fight for the 8^th spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs with Buffalo edging out the Panthers on the last day of the season.

Patrick Kane settles out of court and is eventually suspended for 4 games for unspecified conduct that is “detrimental to the team/league”. The Hawks make it to the Western Conference finals.

Las Vegas is awarded an NHL franchise. It is announced at the Winter Classic. The Panthers, despite their success, are bought by Quebecor and moved to Quebec.

Some friends' predictions:

Link -

Washington beats Chicago in the Stanley Cup Finals.

Pittsburgh, Nashville and St. Louis all miss the playoffs (for a Penguins fan he never thinks they're good – and that includes the year they won the Stanley Cup)

P.K. Subban wins the Norris and Ryan Johanssen is league MVP.

Superstar Sean –

Hawks will be better than people think (he's having trouble focusing on hockey with the Cubs still in the playoffs. If he survives the postseason we may check back with him)

Scotty -

Ducks vs. Penguins in Stanley Cup Finals. He is also living the Cubs dream.

Anyone else care to make some predictions?

* One of the most annoying things about typing on a new computer is that all of the spellings of names that I have saved to the dictionary have disappeared. Less Russians and more John Smiths please Mr. Yzerman.

Only a Game Behind - The 2013-14 Lightning Preview

All too familiar last season

Before we get rolling on this season preview that I’ve put off for two weeks, let me get something off my chest.  It has become glaringly apparent that not only does General Manager Steve Yzerman read this blog, he is basing his personnel decisions on who I choose to collect.  Let’s take a look at some of his roster moves since I’ve started posting my personal collection:

1. February 2013 - The Lightning trade newest member of The Hopeful Chase Collection Dustin Tokarski for Cedrick Desjardins

Owning the card doomed his career

2. July 2013 - Mr. Yzerman bites the bullet and buys out the largest contract in the history of the Tampa Bay Lightning. A contract signed by the original member of The Collection - Vincent Lecavalier

3. September 2013 - The only remaining member of The Collection, Brett Connolly, is sent to Syracuse to start the season.

Seriously, Mr. Yzerman, this is no way to run an organization.

Now to the real reason why you’re all gathered around the glowing computer monitor - my preview of the 2013-14 Tampa Bay Lightning. This year brings a lot of change to Hockey Bay, USA.  New captain, new division, semi-new coach and a few new rules.  After doing some reading, crunching the numbers (namely the heights of players) and watching the first game of the season I can firmly state that I have absolutely no idea how this team is going to do in the upcoming season.

How’s that for going out on a limb? Look, there are just too many unknown factors.

 The last two seasons, with roughly the same roster I thought that the Lightning would battle for a spot in the playoff race. Instead, the only race they were involved with was the one for the overall number one draft pick (two races they also lost).  Their most glaring weakness, the inability to keep the puck out of the net was addressed by……skipping a blue chip d-man in the draft and signing a two-way forward for a skoosh too much money.

Mr. Yzerman has picked his goaltending hill to die on.  Granted with Anders Lindback at 6’6” and Ben Bishop at 6’7” it’s an extremely tall hill, but you have to wonder if he spent any restless nights pondering a one-year contract for free agent Tim Thomas as an insurance policy.  The tandem has cost the team Corey Conacher, a 4th round pick, two 2nd round picks and a 3rd round pick.  Oh and the rights to Sebastien Caron. That’s quite a haul.

Bishop seemed to have a slightly better play of it in the pre-season posting a .903 save percentage to Lindback’s .884, but it was the Swedish net minder who got the call to start the season against the Boston Bruins.

It’s a given that the duo will be splitting starts this season until one grabs the reigns and makes the job their own. If I had to choose which one, I’d lean to Ben Bishop.  He just seems to be a bit more fundamentally sound .  Plus, Lindback seems to struggle at times controlling the puck, especially with his glove hand.  Too many pucks seem to bounce out of his glove on what should be relatively easy saves.

Standing in front of the net minders and helping them clear the pucks away will be a semi-revamped blueline. Mr. Yzerman decided to promote from within, with Syracuse players Radko Gudas, Mark Barberio and Andrej Sustr all suiting up for the first game.  They’re joined by Eric Brewer (steady and one-year closer to the end of his contract), Matthew Carle (should provide some offense from the blueline), Sami Salo (steady when healthy) and the emerging Victor Hedman.

I sincerely feel that this will be the year Victor Hedman and Norris Trophy are whispered about in the same sentence. Five years into his career and things are starting to come together for the Big Swede.  He has the size to control the puck in the defensive size and the skating ability to smoothly transition from offense to defense. By the time the season is over, he should be the undisputed leader of the defense.

Sustr was a bit of surprise member of the roster, not based on how he played in the preseason, but for the fact that the 22 year-old (same age as Hedman!) has less than one-year of experience in professional hockey. For an organization that seems hesitant to rush their prospects to the NHL, its seems out of the norm for them not to give him more “seasoning” in the AHL.

While Hedman should be the breakout star of the defensive corps, Radko Gudas is going to be the one getting the jersey sales.  The heavily bearded Czech is tailor-made to appeal to the Tampa faithful.  A big hitter (ask Kris Versteeg) with a surprisingly deceptive shot, he should have quite the highlight reel put together by the end of the season. Heck, it started in the first game with his terrific open ice hit on old man Igninla.

Scoring shouldn’t be a problem for a team (pay no attention to the one goal scored against a shaky Tuukka Rask and the two failed 5-on-3 power plays) that finished third in goals per game last season.  Even with the loss of Lecavalier, the Bolts should be able to score enough to stay with any team in the league.

Down the middle they are quite strong.  Steven Stamkos is now the undisputed number one center on the team and he played like one posting seven points in four preseason games.  The removal of Lecavalier also eliminates the temptation to shuffle Marty St. Louis from line to line, giving Stamkos two permanent line mates for the first time in his career.  Well, at least until Ryan Malone gets hurt.

The second line drops off a bit in offense, but should be more responsible defensively. Valtteri Filppula, Teddy Purcell and Alex Killorn all have the potential to score 20 goals this season even with Purcell looking to pass the puck 99.6% of the time.  Filppula with spend the next 80 games being compared to Lecavalier, but any drop off in offense will be made up with his defensive skills.  A have no idea what a Fenwick* is, but Filppula posted a +11 against the Bruins and that sounds pretty damn good.

A new wrinkle on the season is a third line that should posit some problems for opposing coaches when it comes to defense.  I’m not sure if I’ve ever heard of a team that kept basically an all-rookie line together to start a season.  Tyler Johnson will lead the team in face-off wins and challenge St. Louis for the most times opposing announcers use the phrase “undersized”. Richard Panik will continue to annoy Detroit fans to an unreasonable degree (not sure if I’ve ever seen such Twitter-hatred for a player in an AHL final) and chip in enough goals to make this line a little dangerous. Ondrej Palat, I don’t know too much about so I’ll defer to the experts at BoltProspects:

“All he does is score [I like that]….. The common knock on Palat is that he’s more of a perimeter player and plays even smaller than he already is [Teddy Purcell 2.0?]”

Nate Thompson returns to center the fourth-line with Bash Brothers BJ Crombeen and PC Labrie. I have a feeling that, much like last year, it will seem like they spend an ungodly amount of time in the offensive zone without scoring a lot of goals.  Not that it’s a bad thing.  Their job is to grind time off the clock until Stamkos and Co are rested and ready to come back out on the ice.

This years team has a much different feel to the one that took the ice last April. The expectations are low (ESPN Power Poll ranks the Lightning 28th, TSN has them at 21st) and the competition is tougher (playing Boston, Ottawa, Detroit and Montreal isn’t like playing Carolina, Florida and Washington), but I think the Lightning will surprise a few folks. Not sure they’re in the playoff race, but I don’t think they are drafting in the top 10.

When it’s all said and done they finish fifth in the Atlantic Division.

Justin G.’s Lightning Award Predictions:

Steven Stamkos Award for Most Goals - Steven Stamkos
Marty St. Louis Award for Most Points - Stamkos
Cory Cross Award for Best Defensive Player - Victor Hedman
Darren Puppa Award for Best Goaltender - Ben Bishop
Sergei Gusev Award for Rookie of the Year - Tyler Johnson

Tim Taylor Unsung Hero Award - Sami Salo
JT Brown MidSeason Callup of the Year Award- Brett Connolly
Sheldon Keefe Biggest Undersized Player Award - Marty St. Louis
Mattias Ohlund Most Games Listed with an undisclosed Body Injury Award- Ryan Malone
Corey Conacher Can’t Believe He Got Ttraded at the Deadline Award - Nikita Nesterov
First Rookie Card That I Buy - Alex Killorn
Player That Gets The Shaft Because I Collect Him - JT Brown






*Fenwick is a relatively new stat that measures the even strength shot differential (not counting blocked shots)while a player is on ice. Some consider it a better indicator of a player’s impact than traditional stats such as +/-.

Football? A Baltimore Ravens Preview Before The Season Starts? My Goodness!

The air is crisper, the sun is setting a bit sooner and people are investing way too much time worrying about Peyton Manning’s health. Thus, it must be football season. Usually, I don’t write football previews, actually I don’t write that much about football at all. Of all the sports I follow, football is the one I’m least analytical about and the one I least desire to put pen to paper about. That lets me be Joe Q. Fan when it comes to the NFL.

With my recent internet blackout I barely had time to prepare for my fantasy drafts and no time to look at things in depth regarding the Ravens. However, that’s not going to stop me from giving you a season preview. After all, if you don’t come here for uninformed sports opinions why do you come?

The shortened pre-season didn’t start well for Ravens fan. GM Ozzie Newsome cut ties with some popular names to free up cap space. No more will the cries of “HEEEEEEEAAAAPPP” resonate through BB&T Stadium every time Todd Heap catches a first down and limps off the field. The one year contracts for TJ Houshmanhzadeh and Dante Stallworth weren’t renewed, no great loss there, but for a few days the Ravens were awful short in the wide receiver department.

Kelly Gregg, aka Buddy Lee, went to Kansas City as did enigmatic offensive lineman Jacob Gaither. Gaither is no great loss despite his potential. Gregg is on the downside of his career and would be hard pressed to beat out Haloti Ngata or Terrence Cody for playing time.

As always patience is a virtue when keeping tabs on the Ravens front office. Newsome didn’t sign any big names, but he found replacements for weak spots in the line up. Vonta Leach’s signing as the starting fullback signaled a dedication to the run that was missing last year. Lover of the chronic Ricky Williams was brought in to replace Willis McGahee as a back-up running back. Williams isn’t the back he was in New Orleans, but can be serviceable as a third down back.

Joe Flacco’s new targets in the passing game are going to be downfield threat Lee Evans and young tight ends Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta, two pass catching tight ends who are athletic enough to line up in the slot from time to time.

The increased focus on the running game should open the passing game for Flacco, and Evans downfield abilities should open the middle up for Anquan Boldin. “Q”’ should see more action in the red zone which will make his fantasy owners happy.

It’s a big year for Flacco. He’s healthy, he has a stronger running game and receiver targets, and his line is supposedly better. We’ll see if he propels himself into the top tier of NFL quarterbacks or continues to be a better than most, but not great field general. He needs to improve on the speed of his decision making. Too many times in his brief career he’s held onto the ball too long and taken bone-crushing sacks or lost the football.

So where are they going to end up at the end of the year? One of the NFL’s clichés is that every team takes the season in quarters. If you win 3 out of every 4 games in each quarter you end up with a 12-4 record, which is pretty good.

Well I’m not going to do that. I’m going to break it up into three categories.

Games The Ravens Should Win



9/18/11 - Tennessee. The Titans aren’t the team that they used to be when they had Steve McNair and Eddie George in the backfield. The Ravens should be able to shut down Chris Johnson and put the game in Matt Hasselbeck’s hands. With the exception of Kenny Britt there isn’t much for Hasselbeck to throw to so the secondary should be able to back each other up.

10/24/11 - at Jacksonville. The one game on the schedule that the Ravens should be double digit favorites and actually cover. On national TV Baltimore should dominate.

10/30/11 - Arizona. The Cardinals comes to town which means the return of local favorite Todd Heap. He should get a nice reception. By this time the NFL should know if Kevin Kolb was worth the price they paid for him. If the Ravens get pressure on him they should be able to force mistakes. Losing Rodgers-Cromartie on defense opens up the deep ball to Evans. The only thing I worry about is the Ravens looking head to Week 9 and the Steelers.

11/13/11 - at Seattle. If the Seahawks weren’t the Seahawks I would worry about the west coast flight. However, there is a 32.6% chance that the Ol' Gunslinger himself has gotten off the tractor in Mississippi to start for the Seahawks. Even if he hasn't the QB will be Tavaris Jackson or Charlie Whitehurst. Let that sink in for a little. The Ravens secondary isn't elite, but it's good enough to contain those threats. This game starts a four game stretch against the weakest opponents for the Ravens. If they go 4-0 in these games the playoffs should be a strong possibility.

11/20/11 - Cincinnati. Cedric Benson could be in jail by this point of the season and Marvin Lewis could be unemployed. The Bengals defense is better than people think, but I don’t see them putting up many points with Andy Dalton throwing the ball. The Ravens should be able to shut down the running game and feast on the rookie quarterback.

11/24/11 - San Francisco. Happy Thanksgiving! Oh and it’s a family reunion for the coaches. John and Jim Harbaugh face off for the first time and John lays the smack down on his bro who, at this point, is wondering if there is a loophole that lets him return to Stanford.

12/4/11 - at Cleveland. Hopefully having won the last three the Ravens should be peaking at their best by now. Much like Tennessee, they could be a danger if Colt McCoy had anyone to throw to. The Ravens won’t light up the scoreboard, but should score enough to win. However, much discussion will be made about Art Modell who isn't even the majority owner at this point and he moved the team more than a decade ago. I got over the Colts moving - time to sack up and get over yourselves Cleveland. It's not like they moved a Super Bowl contending team.

12/24/11 - Cleveland. Christmas Eve. The air is cold, the stockings are hung and the Browns still suck.

1/1/12 - at Cincinnati. Another holiday game and the Ravens could need this one to get into the playoffs in a competitive AFC. The Bengals will be playing for Andrew Luck and not much else.


Games The Ravens Could Lose

9/11/11 - Pittsburgh. I know I’m sacrificing my Ravens fan card by saying this, but I think Pittsburgh is a better team then the Baltimore this year. Not by much, but based on past history just enough to squeak out a win.

10/2/11 - New York Jets. The new Ravens vs. the old Ravens. There is no way Mark Sanchez has a big game against Baltimore, but I think bad penalties and a lack of discipline will be the difference as the Jets win 10-9. In other words as long as the total is over 23 - bet the under.


11/6/11 - at Pittsburgh. This could be a must win game for the Ravens if they want to win the division and pick up home field advantage in the playoffs. The pressure will be on Flacco and so far in his career pressure games haven’t been his forte.




12/18/11 - at San Diego. I don’t like this game at all. From Phil Rivers ability to rack up passing yardage to the Ravens having to go to the west coast, it all adds up to a loss. Plus, aren’t the Chargers 112-1 in November and December over the last few years?





Games We Don’t Know What Will Happen

9/25/11 - at St Louis. The Rams bandwagon is overflowing at this point. Second year quarterback Sam Bradford proved that he belongs in the NFL (at least more so than fellow 2010 draftee Jimmy Clausen). Stephen Jackson is a legitimate offensive threat and their defensive should be better than people think. This also goes down as the game I would be attending if I was employed.

10/16/11 - Houston. The Texans have replaced the Cardinals as the critics favorite team to “surprise” people. Despite their perchance for underplaying to their potential, the talking heads like think every year is the year that they break out. If Arian Foster and Andre Johnson stay healthy the middle of October could be a shoot-out.

12/11/11 - Indianapolis. If Manning is back I’d give Indy the edge. Much like Roethlisberger he has the Ravens number in head to head match-ups. Even if he has high school dropouts as his receivers he will carve up Baltimore’s secondary.


So if the Ravens lose all of the games they “could lose” and at least one of the mystery games that puts them at five losses. If you’ve followed the team at all over the last decade you know that they lose at least one game that they should win due to taking bad penalties. So I see them at 10-6 this year. AFC wild card. One win in the playoffs and done.

Better Late Than Never - Stone Cold Locks For This Season

For the second season I'd like to bring in a guest prognosticator. After a semi-successful first stint my former co-worker SCL Mike looks into his crystal ball and lets us know what is going to happen.

He actually sent these to me a week ago, but I've been too lazy to post it. To make up for it I made that awesome logo above. My MS Paint skills grow by the day.

Let's not waste any more precious time.....here....we.....go....


I will first start out with the Rays SCL for individual players:

BJ Upton will hit 280 with at least 15 home runs and 40 SB’s

Manny Ray will hit 300+ with over 30 hr’s and 100+ rbi’s

Johnny Damon will hit 270.

Evan Longoria will hit the usual 290 but up the HR’s to 30+ and bust many caps with his new AK-47

Price will only have 12-15 wins

Neimann will win 15

Shields will win 16+ and have a huge rebound year.

Hellickson will Dominate

And the Dark Horse SCL for the year will be Brignac hitting 280+ while playing over 130 games at SS, erasing any memory of fan favorite Bartlett.





Now on to the AL east SCL’s :

The Red Sox will be a decent team, but with people in Boston treating CC worse than the hicks here treating BJ, CC will hit 280 with 12 hr’s and miss 20+ games due to injury. Adrian Gonzales will have a decline in stats while adjusting to the AL. The Staff, still relying on Beckett and Lackey will be subpar. They will have 2 huge injuries to star players, and not make the playoffs. Eat on that Peter Gammons.




The Yankees will have a rebound. Sabathia will roll through the AL and win the CY young. Burnett will have a good year, and Rivera will not be an effective closer. Look for their hitters to rebound and big years will come from Texiera, Arod, and granderson. AL EAST Champs.

The Rays will take the Wild card. Manny is going to be a media darling. The people who made these shirts will make millions: http://mannyray.com/

The Blue Jays will be solid, but not put it together again, look for 85 wins.

Orioles will stumble again, but they will come on strong in the end. 83 wins max.



Lock that up!

The Hopeful Chase Day After Opening Day Predictions!

Editor's Note - This was originally written Thursday night 2 hours into a 4 hour delay at Midway Airport. With no free wireless connection most of the notes were dashed off without second thought. So I apologize for spelling errors and other errors of fact.


So what does one do when they’re stuck at Midway airport for the next four hours and doesn’t feel like paying for wireless access? Well, they come up with a baseball season preview that is based completely on what is stored in my head. That means no fact checking! It’s like writing before the internet was invented when I could just come up with baseless facts! Sweet!

Here we go with the predicting!

The O’s will be in the running to win more games then they lose for the first time since the late ‘90’s (see if I had internet access I could actually check what the last year was - thanks Midway!). I have them pegged for about 84 wins, good enough for fourth in the AL East.

Brian Matusz leads the team with 16 wins, evoking memories of former Oriole left-hander Jeff Ballard. After initially struggling in Norfolk fellow lefty Zack Britton makes his debut in early June and wins 7 games, losing out on at least two wins due to inexplicable bullpen meltdowns.

Five hitters crack the 20 home run barrier with Mark Reynolds pacing the team with 37. He also cracks 200 strikeouts for the fourth year in a row. Nick Markakis finally makes an All Star team and hits .315 and drives in 115. The Baltimore Bombers lead the league in home runs and strikeouts as Buck Showalter merges Buckball with Earl Weaver’s “get one of those big (expletive deleted) who can knock the ball out of the yard” philosophy to entertain a resurgent Camden Yards crowd.

I buy this shirt.

Brian Roberts makes it all the way through the season with only one trip to the disabled list and scores 100 runs. Adam Jones continues to prove the doubters wrong, hits .280 with 21 bombs and only swings at 45% of the sliders in the dirt.

Jake Fox and Felix Pie finish the season on different teams, while Nolan Riemold makes an impression with his June call up. The Catching Jesus settles in behind the plate, strokes a cool .287 with 23 doubles and 17 home runs.

That takes care of the O’s. Let’s see what happens in the rest of the league.

The Cubs make it to the playoffs, but fall short of the World Series. Led by Carlos Zambrano’s 19 wins (he misses a chance for 20 when he’s suspended for a week for trying to knock out Matt Garza) and Carlos Pena’s 42 home runs, the Northsiders keep the city in a frenzy until the weather turns cool.

Albert Pujols re-signs with the Cardinals after the All Star break for a 7 year contract that pays him more than Jeter, but less than Alex Rodriguez.

AL CY Young is CC Sabathia while the Rookie of the Year is Jake McGee who ends up saving 41 games for the surprising Rays. The Rays battle to the end of the year, but get edged out by the Yankees who bolster their staff mid season by adding Felix Hernandez.

The Red Sox fall apart, Carl Crawford fights a high ankle sprain all season and relives the frustration of his lost 2008 season. Terry Francona is fired in August when the Red Sox get massacred by the Yankees and drop out of contention.

The Atlanta Braves mildly shock the baseball world when they take the NL East from the heavily favored Phillies on the last weekend of the season. A healthy Jayson Hayward wins the inaugural Hopeful Chase Super Sophomore Award and Tim Hudson is one of only three major league pitchers to win 20 games (Sabathia and Roy Halladay are the others).

Yankees beat the Braves in a tremendous seven game series to win another title. Mariano Rivera retires and Derek Jeter announces he’s moving to 3rd base next season.

So there ya go.

Tomorrow, SCL Mike makes a triumphant return with his predictions!

What’s a Postseason Without a Preseason Review?

It’s been an interesting week in Chicago. After a hint of spring the weather has turned a bit dreary over the last few days. The clouds have rolled in and the winds have picked up. The press reveled in the dismissal of Bulls Coach Vinny Del Negro and warily stepped on the Blackhawks bandwagon. A crazy boyfriend walked into an Old Navy next to my CTA stop and shot his girlfriend and then himself Friday morning. And to top it off the Chief Executive of the METRA system left his family a suicide note and then stepped in front of train.

Life in the city is nothing if not interesting. On top of that my roommate and I finally scraped together some extra money to order the Extra Innings package so I get to watch the O’s on the TV! As usual, just as I write them off they show signs of life. Offense – check. Relief pitching – check. Swept the Red Sox – check.

With their better play (two in a row!) I figure I’ll let them be for this posting. No need to reverse the reverse jinx. Instead let’s go ahead and continue a tradition that I started on the previous blog – the annual review of my preseason NHL predictions. As usual it’s comprised mostly of picks gone horribly wrong, which is why you shouldn’t take stock in anything I write.

Here’s the original post from October post from October . Gosh I was really optimistic about the team back then. So let’s take a look to see how I did.

The Bolts Should Post Better Numbers With Their Strengthened Defense

They did end up with a better record (34-36-12) and gave up fewer goals (260 goals allowed in 2009-10 as opposed to 279 in 2008-09). However, those numbers are a bit deceiving. Antero Niittymaki’s heroics in net were more responsible for the 19 fewer goals allowed then any accomplishment from the group of blueliners in front of him. Despite their overall lack of cohesiveness there were some bright spots. Kurtis Foster showed that he is recovered from the horrific leg injury he suffered two seasons ago. His presence at the point on the power play, the fear of his glass-breaking slap shot, created a lot of room for Steven Stamkos. Hopefully, resigning him is a priority for whatever GM takes over the team.

Mike Lundin finally made it back to the big club and showed a lot of maturity. After struggling last season to find the consistency that he had displayed in his rookie season, he was the most consistent defenseman for the team for most of the season. Vic Hedman showed flashes of greatness and flashes of being a rookie. There was a nice stretch in February where every mistake he made ended up in the back of the net. He should learn a lot from this season and be even more effective next season.

I grade this as a win.

Goaltending Will Go As Far As Mike Smith’s Head Will

Smith lost his number one status as the Lightning goalie. He allowed the most goals he ever has in a season. He battled bouts of inconsistency and was run over in practice by one of his own players. Basically he did nothing to convince the fans that he is the goalie of the future. Without a consistent presence in net the Lightning floundered early and late in the season. Combined with their underachieving defense and one line scoring threat they fell out of the playoff race after the Olympic break and had to win their last three games to avoid a top three pick in the draft. Next season could see wunderkind Dustin Tokarski in net in place of Smith.

This too is a win.

Overall, I See Them Finishing Anywhere From 8th-10th in the Eastern Conference

I was close on this one as they finished tied for 11th. Of course, it took the aforementioned 3 game winning streak to get that far up in the standings. Like I said I was optimistic in the fall. Were there signs back then that pointed to the team underachieving like they did? Probably, but don’t forget that as late as January they were in sixth place and looking like a lock to make the playoffs.

Stupid Olympic break!

This is a loss.

So for the Lightning I finished 2-1. A couple of the other observations – Zenon Kenopka did not get into 81 fights, but he did break the Lightning season record for penalty minutes while being involved in a bizarre non-trade at the deadline. Only the Lightning would try to trade a pick that they didn’t actually have. For the record I would have been extremely perturbed by this move. While Zeke might be known for his willingness to drop the gloves he was also an effective forechecker and a pretty good face-off man. His 62.3 winning percentage would have led the league if he had enough draws to qualify. To trade him for a one-dimensional player would have been sheer lunacy.

I also said something about Steve Stamkos giving the Lightning a solid second line. If only the first line had shown up last season. Let’s not relive that part of the season please.

On to the other predictions.

The Pens Will Not Repeat As Stanley Cup Champions

The playoffs aren’t over yet and the Penguins are still alive. If they were to win their series with the Canadians then they would have home ice in the Eastern Conference finals against Boston or Philadelphia. While I think they will advance in the east, I don’t think they have the firepower to keep up with Chicago or San Jose in the west. So far Montreal has given them everything they can handle and the Habs don’t have half the firepower of ‘Hawks and Sharks.

To Be Determined

Dany Heatley = Success, Marion Hossa = Trade

Heatley finished with 39 goals and 82 points playing most of the season with Joe Thornton and the Sharks seem to have finally found some success in the playoffs. So I got that part of the equation correct. I think I whiffed a bit on the Hossa side.

The Slovakian forward might have a woman’s name, but he played a man’s game this year. He potted 24 goals in only 57 games during the regular season, but saved his most important goal for the postseason. His game five overtime tally broke the Predators backs in the first round, especially since he had spent the previous four minutes reflecting on a dubious boarding call.

I give myself a half a win.

The Coyotes will draft first.

By far this is my largest gaffe of the season. I guess I had assumed that all teams with ownership issues would underperform like the Lightning. Coach Dave Tippet should be awarded this year’s and next year’s Jack Adams award for the coaching job he did this season. Their success drives home the importance of having a strong goalie between the pipes. Ilya Bryzgalov had a career year posting 42 wins and a 2.29 GAA. At 30, the Russian netminder is just entering his prime and should keep the Coyotes in contention no matter what city they call home next season.
For the record the Coyotes are drafting 25th.

This is a big ol’ loss.

The Lightning Will Not Send James Wright back to Juniors.

This looked pretty well for most of the season. He made it past the 10 game mark where teams can send a player back to his junior team without it costing them a year of NHL service time. The 2008 4th round pick was an early surprise making the team straight out of training camp. Through the first month of the season he played well and even spent some time on Vincent’s line (of course everyone on the team did at some point). It seemed like a lock that he would spend the entire season with the big club.

Then on January 21st the Lightning announced that he was going to be sent back to the Vancouver Giants of the Western Hockey League. “Killer” had developed quite a fan base in the TBA so it was a bit of a shock that the team would send him down after he had spent so much time in the league. Was it fair? Probably, he had been struggling on the ice and he gained valuable playoff time with the Giants. Also, he got to avoid the chaos that was the Lightning organization over the last three months of the season.
This is a loss.

My Personal Plus/Minus would be -15.

It was looking soooooo good for a while. Into late January I was actually even and the Lightning offense was starting to pick up. Then the slide happened. For whatever reason the Bolts forgot they were in a playoff race and started giving up goals left and right. I believe I finished at a -23 or -24, I can’t remember and I left the sheet at home. It was bad no matter what the actual number was. Bummer.

This too is a loss.

Another season and another bad list of predictions. What can I say? Enjoy the rest
of the playoffs folks!