Public Overwhelmingly Want To Eliminate Electoral College & Put Age Limit ON Elected Officials

 

The charts above are from the Pew Research Center.

Republicans Want The Electoral College - Other Americans Don't

 

The chart above is from the Economist / YouGov Poll -- dome between December 29th and 31st of a nationwide sample of 1,552 adult citizens, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

Most Americans Want To Do Away With The Electoral College

 

The charts above are from the Gallup Poll -- done between September 3rd and 15th of a nationwide sample of 1,007 adults, with a 4 point margin of error.

Harris Now Has A Small Electoral College Lead

From electoralvotemap.com. 

65% Of Americans Want The Electoral College Eliminated

 From the Pew Research Center.

Most Say Replace Electoral College With Popular Vote

The charts above are from the Pew Research Center -- from a survey done between June 27th and July 4th of a nationwide sample of 6,174 adults, with a 1.8 point margin of error. 

Electoral College Reform Could Prevent A 2024 Trump Coup

There doesn't seem to be much hope of passing legislation to protect voting rights this year. Senators Sinema and Manchin (along with 50 Republicans) killed that hope when they chose to defend the filibuster over voting rights. But some reform may be possible -- a reform of the Electoral College. This could prevent another attempt by Donald Trump to overturn voting results by misusing the Electoral College -- as he attempted to do in 2020-21.

Here are some of Greg Sargents comments about the EC reform effort in The Washington Post:

In a welcome turn of events, a new plan to “Trump proof” the 2024 election is advancing in Congress. Surprisingly, it appears to have some Republican support.

And Donald Trump is in a fury over it.

The plan in question concerns reform of the Electoral Count Act of 1887, which governs how Congress counts electoral votes. Sen. Angus King (I-Maine) has introduced an ECA reform bill, and a bipartisan group of senators is negotiating another version.

These seek to patch holes in the ECA that Trump relentlessly tried to exploit to overturn his 2020 loss. Which may be why Trump has issued two statements raging about these efforts. . . .

King’s proposal would clarify the vice president’s role as ceremonial, which is necessary. But that isn’t what would thwart a coup rerun, because on Jan. 6, 2025, Kamala Harris will presumably be vice president.

However, other things in the King proposal likely would thwart a future attempt.

One danger is that a single GOP governor and/or state legislature could send a fake slate of electors to Congress, defying a Democratic popular vote win, in a state set to decide the election.

A GOP-controlled House could count those sham electors. Under the current ECA, a single slate only gets tossed if both chambers vote to invalidate it. In that scenario, the Republican might win.

So the King bill would trigger a new process of judicial review if electors are appointed in defiance of a state’s previously existing procedures. When courts declare those electors invalid — and validate the winner’s electors — the King bill would require Congress to count the right ones.

“The right principle here is that once courts have spoken on who the valid electors are, Congress’s hands are tied,” Matthew Seligman, a legal scholar who specializes in the ECA, told me. “They have to count those electors.”

Another danger: A GOP-controlled House and Senate could refuse to count a state’s legitimately appointed electors. So King’s bill would raise the threshold to invalidate electors from a simple majority to an elusive three-fifths in both chambers. The bipartisan group also appears supportive of such a fix.

The differences between now and last time are crucial. In addition to pressuring Pence, Trump tried to get state legislatures to send fake electors and got dozens of congressional Republicans to object to Biden electors.

Both failed. But now, Trump is supporting many candidates for state-level offices who have pledged fealty to his 2020 lies — and likely would execute such schemes in 2024. His gubernatorial candidate in Georgia is running on an implicit promise to do just this.

If a corrupt secretary of state or governor does help send fake electors, do you doubt that a Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) would count them?

ECA reform would cut off these pathways at a time when Trump himself is telegraphing his intentions to exploit those pathways.

Adopt The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

 Every democracy in the world elects it leader according to the person (or party) that got the most votes in the election -- every democracy but one, the United States. Thanks to the archaic electoral college system in our Constitution, our president is not chosen by the popular vote, but by the winner of the electoral college. In two of the last six elections, the candidate that lost the popular vote was chosen president by the electoral college -- George W. Bush and Donald Trump.

That makes this country a laughingstock among democracies. How can we justify choosing a person who did not get the most votes?

Sadly, the electoral college is built into our Constitution. To eliminate it, we would need a constitutional amendment, and that is very unlikely to happen.

But maybe there is another way to truly become a democracy. There is a movement called the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. This is where states pass a law saying the candidate who got the most popular votes nationally would get the state's electoral college votes (regardless of which candidate won the most votes in that state). 

So far, 15 states and the District of Columbia have passed such a law. These are the states (and their electoral votes):

California.....55

Colorado.....9

Connecticut.....7

Delaware.....3

D.C......3

Hawaii.....4

Illinois.....20

Maryland.....10

Massachusetts.....11

New Jersey.....14

New Mexico.....5

New York.....29

Oregon.....7

Rhode Island.....4

Vermont.....3

Washington.....12

But that only adds up to 196 electoral votes. 74 more electoral votes would be needed, so more states need to join in the compact by altering their state law on choosing electors. If they do, then the electoral college vote would be moot, and the popular vote winner would be the president.

We elect every other of our officials by the popular vote. It's time we do the same for the president. Until then, we will not truly be a representative democracy, because the vote of a person in some states will still be more important than the vote of a person in another state. And that's ridiculous!

Swing States Will Not Try To Overturn Biden Electoral Votes

There has been some talk about some Republican legislatures in swing states overturning the electoral vote and substituting a slate of Trump electoral voters for those won in the election. The Trump administration even reached out to some of those legislators (especially in Pennsylvania) to see if this could happen.

It was doubtful that it would happen, since it would require those legislatures to change the state law on how the electors are chosen, and some of those states have a Democratic governor who could veto the new law.

But that is no longer a possibility. According to APnews.com the Republicans in four of those swing states (Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania) have said they would NOT intervene in the selection of the electors. That means the Biden slate of electors in those states will be the ones to cast the states' electoral college votes.
 

The Electoral Map Is Complete And Biden Wins 306 To 232

 

The electoral college map is complete. The state of North Carolina goes into the red column, while Arizona and Georgia go blue. That gives Joe Biden 306 electoral votes to 232 for Donald Trump -- a 74 vote margin for Biden. 

With 97% of the nation's vote in, the popular vote has Biden with 77,971,611 (50.8%) and Trump with 72,653,914 (47.4%) -- over a 5.3 million vote margin for Biden.  

In January 20th, Joe Biden will become the 46th president of the United States.

Newest Electoral College Map Looks Good For Biden / Harris

 

This electoral college map is from The Cook Political Report.

It has Joe Biden with 290 electoral college vote and Donald Trump with 125. It has 123 electoral votes in the toss-up states.

The Current Consensus Electoral College Map

 

This is the consensus electoral college map from Taegan Goddard's website. Here is how they arrived at it:

Our presidential election map is currently based on the consensus of the following forecasts:

• Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, October 8, 2020
• Cook Political Report, September 29, 2020
• First Read, September 8, 2020
• Cook Political Report, July 24, 2020
• Inside Elections, July 17, 2020

We also use the latest polling data from FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics and Electoral-Vote.com.

Most Americans Favor Abolishing The Electoral College

 The charts above are from the Gallup Poll. They questioned a national sample of 1,019 adults between August 31st and September 13th, and their survey had a 4 point margin of error.

It turns out that a clear majority (61%) of Americans say they support abolishing the Electoral College. That includes 89% of Democrats and 68% of Independents. Republicans were the only group opposing it, with 23% agreeing it should be abolished and 77% opposing that.

Could State GOP Legislatures Steal The Election For Trump?

 

There's been some talk in the media about the possibility that Donald Trump could lose the election, but refuse to accept the results and refuse to leave office.

I doubt that would happen. Once the electoral college votes, it's all over. If Trump refuses to leave the White House, then the Marine Guards will remove him, because the winner of the electoral college is the real president -- no matter how much crying and whining Trump does.

But there is a way Trump could lose the election and still remain in office. State legislatures determine how electoral college voters are picked, and some GOP state legislatures could ignore the voters and pick Trump electors. 

I'd like to think that couldn't happen, but Republicans have shown us lately that they don't care about anything but trying to hang on to power. Morality, ethics, honesty, and rule of law mean nothing to them. If they see both houses of the U.S. Congress lost to Democrats, it's within the realm of possibility that they could override state voting results and move to pick electors that would keep a Republican in the White House.

Here's how Barton Gellman puts it in The Atlantic:

“We are accustomed to choosing electors by popular vote, but nothing in the Constitution says it has to be that way. Article II provides that each state shall appoint electors ‘in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct.’ Since the late 19th century, every state has ceded the decision to its voters. Even so, the Supreme Court affirmed in Bush v. Gore that a state ‘can take back the power to appoint electors.’ How and when a state might do so has not been tested for well over a century.”

“Trump may test this. According to sources in the Republican Party at the state and national levels, the Trump campaign is discussing contingency plans to bypass election results and appoint loyal electors in battleground states where Republicans hold the legislative majority. With a justification based on claims of rampant fraud, Trump would ask state legislators to set aside the popular vote and exercise their power to choose a slate of electors directly. The longer Trump succeeds in keeping the vote count in doubt, the more pressure legislators will feel to act before the safe-harbor deadline expires.”

Consensus Electoral College Map Has Biden With 291 Votes

 

This is the newest electoral college consensus map. It shows Biden with 291 votes to only 125 for Trump (and five states still undecided -- Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, and Texas).

Here is how the consensus map by Taegan Goddard was formed:

Our interactive presidential election map is currently based on the consensus of the following forecasts:

• Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, September 10, 2020
• First Read, September 8, 2020
• Cook Political Report, July 24, 2020
• Inside Elections, July 17, 2020
• Harry Enten, “Texas is a Swing State”, July 11, 2020
• Bitecofer Model, March 24, 2020

We also use the latest polling data from FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics and Electoral-Vote.com.

CBS Battleground Poll Has Biden With A Nice Lead

The charts above are from the new CBS News / YouGov Battleground Poll -- done between August 12th and 14th of a national sample of 2,210 registered voters, with a 2.4 point margin of error.

The chart below shows how, using this poll, CBS News predicts the electoral college stands currently.

Consensus Electoral College Map

From Taegan Goddard.

Our interactive presidential election map is currently based on the consensus of the following forecasts:

• Cook Political Report, July 24, 2020
• Inside Elections, July 17, 2020
• Harry Enten, “Texas is a Swing State”, July 11, 2020
• Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, June 25, 2020
• Bitecofer Model, March 24, 2020

We also use the latest polling data from FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics and Electoral-Vote.com.

Consensus Electoral College Map Moves Further To Biden

This is the consensus electoral college map from Taegan Goddard. It shows Biden with 280 electoral votes, and several red states that are now toss-ups (Texas, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Iowa. If Trump loses several of those states, the 2020 race could easily become a blow-out victory for Joe Biden.

Here's how Goddard arrived at this map:

Our interactive presidential election map is currently based on the consensus of the following forecasts:

• Harry Enten, “Texas is a Swing State”, July 11, 2020
• Cook Political Report, July 8, 2020
• Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, June 25, 2020
• Inside Elections, April 3, 2020
• Bitecofer Model, March 24, 2020

We also use the latest polling data from FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics and Electoral-Vote.com.

Electoral College Map For 2020 Now Favors Joe Biden

This map of how the electoral college is predicted to go is from Taegan Goddard. Here's what he had to say about how he arrived at this map.

Our interactive presidential election map is currently based on the consensus of the following forecasts:

• Political Wire: The Blue Wall Has Been Rebuilt, June 25, 2020
• Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, June 25, 2020
• Cook Political Report, June 19, 2020
• Inside Elections, April 3, 2020
• Bitecofer Model, March 24, 2020

We also use the latest polling data from FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics and Electoral-Vote.com.

Report: There Will Be More Presidents Losing Popular Vote

The United States is the only representative democracy where the presidential candidate who loses the popular vote can still become president. That's what happened with Donald Trump, who received millions of votes less than Hillary Clinton. It's not the only time it has happened. Three other presidents have assumed office even though they received less votes than their opponent. It also happened in 1876, 1888, and 2000.

This happened because of our unfair and archaic electoral college system, which ignores the popular vote in favor of a state-by-state electoral vote system. And it makes a joke of our presidential elections in the eyes of other democracies. How can the winner of the popular vote, the choice of this country's voters, not win an election?

Some might think this was just a fluke. Unfortunately, that's not true. The University of Texas Electoral College Study says this was predictable and should have been expected. It goes on to say it will happen again in the future -- especially in very close elections.

Here's some of what that study says:

There have been four times when the winner of the Presidency did not receive the most votes: 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016. What has been unclear until now is how often we should expect these electoral inversions. Was it statistically probable or was it a fluke that the Electoral College would have generated four inversions in the last two centuries?

New research from the University of Texas Electoral College Study (UTECS) provides an answer, using Monte Carlo simulations that generate probability distributions over the likelihood of inversions in elections extending back to 1836.

History tells us that Bush vs Gore 2000 was an inversion. The UTECS analysis tells us that this outcome was more likely than not, given the narrow Democratic margin of victory in the national popular vote. UTECS also tells us that more inversions are very likely in the future.

Data journalists and election forecasters have recently applied increasingly sophisticated statistical tools to analyze politics. They predict results of particular elections, such as Trump vs Clinton in 2016 in the weeks before ballots are cast. But they do not answer one of the deepest questions about the Electoral College:

How likely are inversions as an enduring feature of American political life, independent of two particular candidates or parties?

UTECS analysis makes clear that more inversions are likely in 2020 and beyond. Inversions will be business-as-usual in close elections under the Electoral College system. . . .

The UTECS analysis shows that inversions are surprisingly likely, especially in close elections. The Presidential candidate with the most votes will lose 45% of elections decided by 2 percentage points or less (about 2.6 million votes by 2016 turnout).

This is a long-run property, not a modern phenomenon. Electoral College inversions have been very likely in close elections since the 1800s.

Even as rules and norms governing Presidential elections have changed over the centuries, including empowering an ever larger fraction of the population to have and to use the right to vote, and even as new parties have emerged and new states have joined the US, inversions have endured as a fact of Presidential politics and a likely outcome of close elections.

If elections continue to be as close as they have been in the last 30 years, it is near certainty that Americans who vote for the first time in 2020 will eventually experience an inversion over a 60-year voting lifetime.

Over the last 30 years, the probability that if an inversion occurs, it would have been a Democratic popular vote majority and a Republican Electoral College win has been about 70%.

Although it has not yet happened (except arguably in the case of Kennedy in 1960),  there is a significant possibility that a Democrat will win the Electoral College in a future race in which a Republican wins the popular vote.

No change to the Electoral College other than a national popular vote would eliminate the risk of electoral inversions. Not removing the two Electors corresponding to Senators, which skews representation towards smaller states. Not changing the winner-takes-all method by which most states award EC ballots.

This is because many factors cause inversions. Popular vote totals depend on the number of voters, but Electors are allocated based on the number of persons in the last census—including children and adults who cannot vote.