Hall of Fame Worthy? Pt. 20: Jonathan Papelbon

 

Let's do another one of these, shall we?  Jonathan Papelbon was on the ballot for the BBWAA in 2022 and dropped off after the first ballot.  He is not going to have another shot until he is eligible on the Eras Committee in about ten years or so.  So, this is definitely not a real urgent candidacy.

It is pretty obvious that voters do not really know what to do with relief pitchers.  There are obvious inductees like Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman and Dennis Eckersley, but Lee Smith took until he was first eligible on the Eras Committee to get elected.  Billy Wagner looks like he may get in next year.  Otherwise, the only relievers in the Hall are Bruce Sutter, Goose Gossage, Rollie Fingers and Hoyt Wilhelm.  

It is extremely difficult to find a real good metric to compare relief pitchers since the role has changed so much over the years.  Wilhelm, Gossage, Fingers and Sutter all came from an era in which relievers might pitch a couple of innings a game.  Smith came in toward the end of that era.  Eckersley spent half his career as a starter.  So, Papelbon could only adequately be compared to Rivera and Hoffman.  So, let's start there.  I will put Wagner in as well since his induction seems imminent.

RIVERA: 82-60, 2.21 ERA, 652 saves, 1.000 WHIP, 1,173 strikeouts, 56.3 WAR

HOFFMAN: 61-75, 2.87 ERA, 601 saves, 1.058 WHIP, 1,133 strikeouts, 28.0 WAR

WAGNER: 47-40, 2.31 ERA, 422 saves, 0.998 WHIP, 1,196 strikeouts, 27.7 WAR

PAPELBON: 41-36, 2.44 ERA, 368 saves, 1.043 WHIP, 808 strikeouts, 23.3 WAR

Well, in looking at those numbers, it is pretty clear what the Wagner argument is.  Holy smokes, he was dominant.  One of the obvious barriers to Papelbon's induction is the brevity of his career.  He falls far short in the counting stats primarily because he pitched just 12 years and 725.2 innings.  Those numbers are far smaller than any of the other three.  His record, ERA and WHIP are favorable to Hoffman though.  Let's look at some other rate stats:

RIVERA: 8.2 SO9, 4.10 SO/W, 2.76 FIP

HOFFMAN: 9.4 SO9, 3.69 SO/W, 3.08 FIP

WAGNER: 11.9 SO9, 3.99 SO/W, 2.73 FIP

PAPELBON: 10.0 SO9, 4.37 SO/W, 2.81 FIP

That is a little more interesting.  Again, Wagner presents a compelling case based on these stats, but Papelbon has the better strikeouts per nine innings among the rest, and has the best strikeout to walk ratio.  His FIP is better than Wagner's and comparable, but higher than Wagner and Rivera, and better than Hoffman.  This seems to present a better argument for Papelbon.

There is a metric called R-JAWS that specifically rates relievers and this metric rates Papelbon fairly highly.  Papelbon comes in 10th all-time, behind Rivera, Eckersley, Wilhelm, Gossage and Hoffman (and Wagner), but ahead of Smith, Fingers and Sutter.  He also comes in behind Joe Nathan, Firpo Marberry and Tom Gordon.  I do not really see anyone making arguments for Marberry and Gordon, so that is not terribly helpful.

Papelbon finished second in the A.L. Rookie of the Year vote in 2006, and might have won it had he not gone on the disabled list for the last month of the season.  He never received any votes for Cy Young or MVP, but did get named to six All Star teams.  Papelbon never led the league in any major categories, but he was consistently in the top ten in saves and is eleventh all time.  He was also a beast in the postseason, appearing in 18 games, pitching 27 innings with an ERA of 1.00.  He had a record of 2-1, struck out 23 and walked eight, while saving seven games.  

THE VERDICT

Longevity seems to be a big problem for Papelbon.  He was certainly a consistent and dominant relief pitcher.  He just did not pitch long enough and his innings total was significantly less than even Wagner.  Many voters are using Wagner's innings as a reason not to vote for him, so that is not helpful with Papelbon.  I just do not see him getting in.  Papelbon will have to settle for being in the Red Sox Hall of Fame, and he holds the team record for saves (219), so that appears a safe bet.

Random Awesome Photos: World Series Celebrations

I had to put these two together.  As a Red Sox fan the 2004 World Championship was one of the happiest days of my life.  Then, just three years later, they did it again.  I chose these two cards to show off because they depict the immediate aftermath of the final out of the two World Series wins.

The Jason Varitek card is from 2004 Donruss World Series.  More particularly it is from the special extended box set after the Red Sox won.  Donruss produced cards of all the players from the World Series roster except Kevin Millar who was ineligible for membership in the Players' Union due to being a former replacement player.  The checklist included players like Curtis Leskanic, Pokey Reese, and Mike Myers.  The Varitek is notable because it shows Tek leaping into Keith Foulke's arms immediately after the last out had been recorded at first base.  There are also celebration shots shown on the cards of Foulke and Doug Mientkiewicz.

The Jonathan Papelbon is from 2008 Upper Deck Masterpieces.  Yes, Papelbon is kind of a douchebag and it is particularly evident on this card.  This comes from immediately after Papelbon striking out Seth Smith swinging to end the World Series.  The excitement in Papelbon's face is palpable.

The Closers

The closer each year has almost always been a favorite player of mine.  I have no idea why.  Closers are just fun.  They often have an outrageous personality.  You almost have to be arrogant to be a closer.  It's only annoying when they do not perform well or you like the other team.  So yeah, ever since I got into baseball, I have been a very big fan of closers.

The below are a year by year look at the Red Sox closers since I was fan:

1991

JEFF REARDON:  Reardon was the first Red Sox closer I was aware of and he had a terrific 1991 season.  Reardon was an All Star in 1991 and set a new Red Sox record for saves in a season with 40.

Others recording saves: Greg Harris (2), Jeff Gray (1), Tony Fossas (1), Dan Petry (1)

1992

JEFF REARDON:  Reardon was 36 in 1992 and was starting to show his age.  He did break the career saves record and had 27 saves before being traded to the Braves.  They went with a committee after the trade.

Others recording saves: Greg Harris (4), Danny Darwin (3), Tony Fossas (2), Joe Hesketh (1), Paul Quantrill (1), Ken Ryan (1)

1993

JEFF RUSSELL:  After trading Reardon in 1992, Boston was on the lookout for a closer for the 1993 season.  Russell was signed after the team nearly signed Tom Henke.  Russell racked up 33 saves and a 2.70 ERA in a very good season.

Others recording saves: Greg Harris (8), Paul Quantrill (1), Ken Ryan (1), Joe Hesketh (1)

1994

KEN RYAN:  Russell started the season as the closer but had a rough time and was eventually traded to Cleveland.  Ken Ryan took over and lead the team with 13 saves with a 2.44 ERA.

Others recording saves: Jeff Russell (12), Greg Harris (2), Chris Howard (1), Tony Fossas (1), Todd Frohwirth (1)

1995

RICK AGUILERA:  The Red Sox started the season with Ryan as the closer but he struggled.  They then went with Stan Belinda for a little while but eventually decided to pick up Aguilera at the trade deadline in order to have a shot at the playoffs.  Aguilera was great down the stretch notching 20 saves and a 2.67 ERA.

Others recording saves:  Stan Belinda (10), Ken Ryan (7), Mike Maddux (1), Joe Hudson (1)

1996

HEATHCLIFF SLOCUMB:  Aguilera returned to the Twins as a free agent after the 1995 season so Boston acquired Slocumb in a trade with the Phillies.  Slocumb had a great season in 1996 picking up 31 saves and 88 strikeouts in 83.1 innings.  He had a 3.1 WAR as a closer, which is impressive.

Others recording saves: Stan Belinda (2), Pat Mahomes (2), Mike Stanton (1), Joe Hudson (1)

1997

HEATHCLIFF SLOCUMB:  1997 was not nearly as good for Slocumb.  He only had 17 saves for Boston and blew some big ones.  He was eventually traded to the Mariners in what would be a terrific trade for Boston.  Tom Gordon took over after the trade.

Others recording saves: Tom Gordon (11), Butch Henry (6), Kerry Lacy (3), Jim Corsi (2), Chris Hammond (1)

1998

TOM GORDON:  In what was easily one of the greatest seasons by a Red Sox closer, Gordon set a new single season saves record for the team with 46 and was an All Star.  He even received votes for MVP.

Others recording saves: Derek Lowe (4), Dennis Eckersley (1), Rich Garces (1), Ron Mahay (1)

1999

DEREK LOWE:  Gordon started off the season as closer but had some injury problems.  Lowe and Tim 

Wakefield actually tied with 15 saves, but Lowe finished more games.  

Others recording saves: Tim Wakefield (15), Tom Gordon (11), Rod Beck (3), John Wasdin (2), Mark Guthrie (2), Rich Garces (2)

2000

DEREK LOWE:  The sinkerballer was terrific in 2000, saving 42 games with a 2.56 ERA, and an All Star berth.

Others recording saves: Rich Garces (1), Hipolito Pichardo (1), Bryce Florie (1), John Wasdin (1)

2001

DEREK LOWE:  Lowe started to falter as closer in 2001, but still recorded 24 saves.  He was moved to the rotation later in the season and Ugueth Urbina was acquired to serve as closer.

Others recording saves: Ugueth Urbina (9), Rod Beck (6), Rolando Arrojo (5), Tim Wakefield (3), Rich Garces (1)

2002

UGUETH URBINA:  Urbina was an All Star in 2002 with 40 saves and a 3.00 ERA and 71 strikeouts in 60 innings.

Others recording saves: Tim Wakefield (3), Alan Embree (2), Frank Castillo (1), Casey Fossum (1), Rolando Arrojo (1), Willie Banks (1), Chris Haney (1), Wayne Gomes (1)

2003

BYUNG-HYUN KIM:  2003 was the year of the ill-fated closer-by-committee approach.  It did not work. Boston eventually traded Shea Hillenbrand to the Diamondbacks for Kim, who saved 16 games in 2003 with a 3.18 ERA.  Scott Williamson did some great work as closer in the postseason.

Others recording saves: Brandon Lyon (9), Chad Fox (3), Mike Timlin (2), Tim Wakefield (1), Casey Fossum (1), Alan Embree (1), Jason Shiell (1), Bronson Arroyo (1), Robert Person (1)

2004

KEITH FOULKE:  After having trouble with the closer-by-committee in 2003, Boston signed the best closer available on the free agent market in Foulke.  He saved 32 games with a terrific 2.17 ERA and was lights-out in the postseason.

Others recording saves: Curtis Leskanic (2), Mike Timlin (1), Scott Williamson (1)

2005

KEITH FOULKE:  Foulke struggled in 2005, leading to an infamous comment about Burger King.  He only picked up 15 saves and Boston had to resort to some desperate measures as will be seen by some of the other pitchers who saved games in '05.  Foulke's ERA was an ugly 5.91

Others recording saves: Mike Timlin (13), Curt Schilling (9), Alan Embree (1)

2006

JONATHAN PAPELBON:  Rookie Papelbon solved the closer problem for the long term.  He had a fantastic season and came in second in the Rookie of the Year vote, and might have won it had he not been injured the final month of the season.  He saved 35 games with a remarkable 0.92 ERA and 75 strikeouts in 69.1 innings.  He was also an All Star.

Others recording saves: Mike Timlin (9), Julian Tavarez (1), Javier Lopez (1)

2007

JONATHAN PAPELBON:  Papelbon had another strong All Star season, saving 37 with a 1.85 ERA and 84 strikeouts in only 58.1 innings.

Others recording saves: Hideki Okajima (5), Mike Timlin (1), Manny Delcarmen (1), J.C. Romero (1)

2008

JONATHAN PAPELBON:  Another terrific All Star season for Papelbon (41 saves, 2.34 ERA, 77 strikeouts), but his mouth was starting to be a problem.

Others recording saves: Manny Delcarmen (2), Craig Hansen (2), Hideki Okajima (1), Mike Timlin (1)

2009

JONATHAN PAPELBON:  Ho hum, another All Star season for Paps (38 saves, 1.85 ERA, 76 strikeouts).

Others recording saves: Takashi Saito (2), Daniel Bard (1)

2010

JONATHAN PAPELBON:  Papelbon actually had a rough year.  He still picked up 37 saves, but his ERA ballooned to 3.90.  His strikeout rate was in line with his averages.  He missed the All Star game for the first time in his career.

Others recording saves: Daniel Bard (3), Ramon Ramirez (2), Felix Doubront (2)

2011

JONATHAN PAPELBON:  He blew the save on the last game of the season, but Papelbon actually had a decent season.  He had 31 saves and a 2.94 ERA with 87 strikeouts.

Others recording saves: Alfredo Aceves (2), Daniel Bard (1), Scott Atchison (1), Felix Doubront (1)

2012

ALFREDO ACEVES:  Papelbon bolted as a free agent to Philadelphia before even being offered arbitration.  The Red Sox made two trades to acquire closers in Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon.  Injuries or ineffectiveness limited both of them, so they turned to Aceves who struggled at times.  He finished with 25 saves, a 2-10 record, and a 5.36 ERA.

Others recording saves: Andrew Bailey (6), Vicente Padilla (1), Mark Melancon (1), Franklin Morales (1), Junichi Tazawa (1)

2013

JOEL HANRAHAN:  Boston attempted another trade to bring over a closer.  Hanrahan has been a little rough so far this year, but he has notched three saves.  He blew a big one and is currently on the disabled list.

Others recording saves: NONE

See Ya Jonathan Papelbon

Link.

This actually does make me a little sad. Apparently Paps is on his way to Philadelphia for four years and $50 million. Daniel Bard is first in line to become Boston's closer, although the Red Sox will look at Ryan Madson and Heath Bell. I think it came down to Boston was simply not willing to give Papelbon that much money. I can't really blame them. Boston now has an easy decision to make by offering arbitration to Papelbon so they can likely get Philadelphia's first round draft pick next year as well as a supplemental pick. Not bad.

Arbitration Results

Arbitration this year was not painful. Only Jacoby Ellsbury and Jonathan Papelbon were still needing a new contract and both players agreed yesterday.

Jacoby Ellsbury agreed to a $2.4 million contract for one year. He will remain arbitration-eligible for a couple more years. Ellsbury had an injury-ravaged season last year, but he will hopefully be ready for action in Spring Training. He and new teammate Carl Crawford could steal 100 bases between them.

Jonathan Papelbon agreed to a $12 million contract. He will be eligible for free agency after the season. He had his worst year of his career last year and if he can not reverse the trend, Boston almost certainly will not bring him back.

Feature: Rob Neyer's Big Book of Baseball Lineups

Link.

This is one of my favorite baseball books. I can spend a long time on any given day just pouring over it. Unfortunately, it's a little out of date. It was released during the 2003 season and some of the information is even a little older than that. That said, it is a valuable resource.

Well, I recently dug it back out and reviewed the Red Sox information. Since it may be awhile before it gets updated, if ever, I figure I will add to it. I also have a couple of minor quibbles that I wanted to touch on.


ALL-TIME TEAM

DH: Neyer listed Jim Rice. At this point, I think the All-Time DH has to be David Ortiz. The most obvious reason is that Ortiz has played nearly twice as many games as Rice at DH. Of course, Ortiz being a regular DH for his entire career with the Red Sox also means that he has had his best seasons at DH, compared to Rice. I do not even need to discuss stats here, it is just obvious that Ortiz has taken over here.

RP: Neyer listed Dick Radatz here and I will make the argument that with Jonathan Papelbons first five seasons as a closer, that he may be taking over, assuming he continues to pitch well. Last year was not a good year, but Radatz was not nearly as good his last couple of years either. Papelbon was still at least decent last year. Provided he is not traded or continues to decline, it may be time to put Papelbon in this spot.


NUMBER TWO TEAM

DH: Neyer listed Carl Yastrzemski. Since Jim Rice fell off the All-Time Team, he will push Yaz back a spot.

C: Neyer listed Wally Schang. Schang was a great catcher, but played for a short amount of time for the Red Sox. I would list Jason Varitek, who has the Red Sox all-time record for games by a catcher and has beaten Carlton Fisk's club record for home runs by a catcher. Fisk was a better all around hitter and better defender, but Varitek is reasonably close, at his peak.

2B: Neyer listed Pete Runnels. Runnels was a better contact hitter than Dustin Pedroia, but Pedroia is pretty great himself and is a better fielder. I think Pedroia takes over here, due in major part to his 2008 AL MVP.

RP: Neyer listed Ellis Kinder. If Papelbon dethrones Radatz on the All-Time Team, then Radatz moves to the No. 2 team and knocks Kinder down a spot.


SINGLE-SEASON TEAM

DH: Neyer listed Jim Rice 1977. Pick a David Ortiz season. I think I will go with 2006, when Ortiz hit 54 home runs and drove in 137 RBIs. His slash line was .287/.413/.636/1.049. 2005 and 2007 are also great choices.

RP: Neyer listed Ellis Kinder 1953. I am inclined to go with Jonathan Papelbon's 2006. 0.92 ERA. Rookie year. Enough said.


ALL-ROOKIE TEAM

2B: Neyer listed Jody Reed 1988. Boston has not had a ton of great rookie second-basemen, but Pedroia did win the Rookie of the Year in 2008 and clearly deserved it. Automatically qualifies based on that.

SS: Neyer listed Johnny Pesky 1942. I have always considered this a bit of a mistake. Pesky had a great 1942, hitting .331 and leading the league in hits with 205. But Nomar Garciaparra also lead the league in hits in 1997, his rookie year, with 209. He also lead the league in triples and whereas his .306 average was not nearly as high as Pesky's, Garciaparra hit 30 home runs, drove in 98 runs, and stole 22 bases. Garciaparra's 1997 season was one of the greatest rookie seasons of all time, it should have been listed.


HOMEGROWN TEAM

2B: Neyer listed Jody Reed. For obvious reasons, Dustin Pedroia has taken over here.

RP: Neyer listed Sparky Lyle. I think Papelbon could eventually knock Lyle off the list. I am not sure he is there quite yet though.


TRADED AWAY TEAM

I do not have any changes to this team.


GOLD GLOVE TEAM

RF: Neyer picked Trot Nixon. I never agreed with this one either. I think Dwight Evans was one of the greatest defensive right fielders ever, and Nixon did not have nearly the arm strength Evans had. I think even Neyer has come to change his mind on this.


IRON GLOVE TEAM

I do not have any changes to this team.


ALL-BUST TEAM

C: Neyer listed Marc Sullivan. I am not sure Sullivan was a bust. He was never really expected to be a great player. John Marzano was selected in the first round of the 1984 draft, 14th overall, and never developed into even a regular catcher. Javy Lopez was brought in during the 2006 season to bring some stability to the position after Varitek went down with an injury and tanked. I think Marzano should be listed here because of the big expectations and near total letdown. Sorry Mr. Marzano. R.I.P.

CF: Neyer listed Carl Everett. I do not totally disagree, as Everett had a world of talent, but he was great in 2000. He was bad in 2001 and traded for Darren Oliver due to his personality clashes with management. However, Coco Crisp looked to be a big star when he was acquired and never came close to matching his expectations. At least Everett was great one year. Crisp was never even a good player for Boston, outstanding catches notwithstanding.


USED-TO-BE-GREAT

LF: Neyer listed Al Simmons. I have to go with Rickey Henderson here. Simmons was also a Hall of Famer, but Henderson was one of the greatest of all time.


ALL-NAME TEAM

2B: Neyer listed Pete Runnels, whose first name was really Thomas. Poor Runnels has been completely driven out of this book, because I am going with "Laser Show" Dustin Pedroia.

Boxscore: May 26, 2006 Red Sox 8 vs. Devil Rays 4

This is the only game so far that I have attended at Fenway Park.

My parents took me to Boston as a gift for graduating from law school. We spent a long weekend there doing a bunch of tourist stuff. The main reason for going though was to see this game. We were lucky to see a game at all as it was raining pretty hard immediately before the game.

David Wells started the game and pitched pretty well for 4.1 innings until being taken out after a line drive caught him in the knee. He gave up five hits and one earned run on a home run to Carl Crawford. Julian Tavarez came in to pitch 2.1 innings to pick up the win. He gave up two more runs. Keith Foulke pitched .1 innings and gave up another run. Rudy Seanez then came in to pitch 1.2 innings and handed it off to Jonathan Papelbon, the rookie closer who saved the game, getting the last out. The Red Sox bullpen got the job done, but it was pretty ugly. That was not a good year for the bullpen other than Papelbon.

The offensive star was Mike Lowell who had three hits, including a home run and a double. He drove in two runs. David Ortiz also added a double and single, driving in four. The other two runs were driven in by Mark Loretta and Trot Nixon. Kevin Youkilis, Jason Varitek, and Wily Mo Pena each had a single and a run. Alex Gonzalez had three hits and a run. Manny Ramirez also had a single and Willie Harris appeared as a defensive replacement for Pena.

All in all, this was a great game and is still the only time I have been to Fenway Park.