Syrious Change - The Assad Regime Falls

The fall of the despot Bashar Assad has opened new risks and opportunities in the Middle East.

The Detroit News: Jubilation and gunfire as Syrians celebrate end of Assad family's half-century rule

This change, after a 50-year dictatorship passed down from father to son, opens both syrious opportunities and lots of syrious risks.

The big winner - Turkey - who backed the Sunni rebels against the Alawite Assad regime and its Hezbollah, Iranian and Russian Backers. Turkey gets to expand its sphere of influence, and pushes Iran and Russia away from one of its borders.

The big losers - Russia, Hezbollah and Iran.

Russia: Syria was Russia's greatest remaining client state, and that Russia could not preserve the regime, having most of its resources tied up in its ill-chosen war in Ukraine demonstrates Russian weakness to the world.  Expect lesser client states to take note. Russia also loses its warm-water port at Tartus in Syria which is a major blow to Russian maritime strategy, such as it is.

Iran: Iran loses a close ally in the region and a easy transit route to get weapons and support to its client Hezbollah in Lebanon. A stronger Sunni Turkey is a threat to Shiite Iran as both rivals contend to try and lead the Muslim world. 

Hezbollah: Hezbollah loses an easy line of communication to its patron and controller Iran. Hezbollah having been the major puppet force of Iran in propping up the Assad regime weakened itself by its choice to launch a war with Israel that saw its command and control networks neutralized, it's forces being beaten and being on the verge of defeat until Biden, Macron, et al imposed a ceasefire on Israel. It's war with Israel distracted it from propping up the Syrian regime which fell after rebels were heavily supported by Turkey.

The possible winners:  Israel and Lebanon - The Assads kept in power as an Alawite minority in the Sunni nation of Syria by doing the typical dictator move - blame everything bad on the Jews and Israel rather than themselves.  

Israel: A new regime that may be interested in peaceful relations with its neighbors instead of supporting terrorism and continually threatening war would be a very good thing for Israel, reducing tensions on its borders and further hampering Hezbollah from getting support and supplies via an overland route from Iran. 

Lebanon:  Syria heavily supported Hezbollah in Lebanon, preventing the Lebanese from controlling their own destiny. This change may give the rather fragmented and weak Lebanese state a chance to reclaim its control over its own territory and end Syrian and Iranian supported Hezbollah domination.

Or, Syrian could fall apart into civil war with instability and a foothold for the Islamic State and Al Qaeda that would be very bad for all its neighbors, including Israel, Lebanon and Jordan, and indeed the world as Al Qaeda likes to get around.

Time will tell but it will take time before this shakes out and we see who assumes control, who influences them, and what their stance will be on the world stage.  Interesting times indeed, and the maps sure have been all flag-y and arrow-y recently.

The UN: From Hope, To Tragedy, To Farce, To Tragedy, To Farce Yet Again

The UN is often a self-parody of itself, doing things that you just can't make up if you tried. It has beclowned itself yet again this week.

UN Watch: Syria to chair UN disarmament forum on chemical & nuclear weapons; watchdog calls on US & EU to walk out

No, you really can't make this stuff up, they really just did that on Monday, right after Syria used chemical weapons against its own population yet again. Of Course, Syria had been appointed to the UNESCO Human Rights committee in 2013 as it was killing its own citizens wholesale so the current appointment merely follows the trend.

It's the stuff of farce. The country in the news today for the most recent use of chemical weapons (and sought to build nuclear weapons in the recent past and was found in breach of the non-proliferation treaty, if not currently) has been named as the chair of the UN's disarmament forum on chemical and nuclear weapons.

Yes, the organization that named Iran to the UN's Women's rights committee as Iran was violating women's rights wholesale, has now named Syria, the most famous current user of banned chemical weapons to chair the committee on disarmament of chemical weapons.

One wonders if the members of the UN completely lack any sense of self-awareness or shame, or for that matter why anyone should take anything the UN and the UN General Assembly does seriously ever again, if you ever took it seriously before.

This Latest European Idea Makes The Children's Crusade Seem Like An Act of Strategic Brilliance

Breitbart: European Lefties Plan to March on ISIS While Waving White Flags

Someone tell me this is a bit of satire gone off, but it seems to actually be real.

Of course, it's going to end in tears as these Euro-idealists with zero real-world experience encounter reality head-on, assuming they even get past a couple initial steps or deal with the logistics of the task. Verily the idealistic organizer of this insanity expects the march to be well received:

But she was unconcerned about the prospect of being bombed, saying: “People like me think that if five or ten thousand people are marching and getting everyone’s attention, then it’s impossible that they would bomb you,” she said.

Yeah, keep thinking those happy thoughts there sunshine - the civil war in Syria has killed Hundreds of Thousands. Your few thousand empty-headed marchers would be a rounding error to the combatants at most and a tasty snack on arrival to ISIS at the very least.

It seems that at least on a subconscious level she understands the insanity of the idea:

The precise route the march will take is yet to be finalised, but the group will leave Germany via the Czech Republic, then head through Austria, Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia, Greece, and Turkey before finally entering Syria.

Lawyers in each of the countries en route are preparing paperwork to ease the crossing of borders along the way. “If no-one will stop us, we will go all the way,” Alboth said.

That sounds an awful lot like this:

My bet is they'll be blocked from their journey and turned around by the first European government that bans assisted suicide along the route. Once that occurs they'll declare they've sufficiently raised awareness and declare a moral victory because of their good intentions and go home.

He's Not Exactly Inviting Them Over To His House, Now Is He?

The Detroit News: Rev. Jackson: Welcome Syrian refugees to Mich.

I'll note that the Reverend, and I use that term loosely in this case, is not a resident of Michigan, nor with a net worth of $10 million has he so far allocated any funds nor any room in his mansion for Syrian refugees.

The Governerd Begins To Get A Clue

Suddenly, 10,000 unvetted Syrian "refugees" settling in Michigan doesn't seem like such a good idea.

WXYZ: Gov. Snyder puts Syrian refugee efforts on hold following Paris attacks

Gov. Rick Snyder said in a statement Sunday that the state is postponing efforts to accept refugees until federal officials fully review security clearances and procedures.

"Michigan is a welcoming state and we are proud of our rich history of immigration," Snyder said. "But our first priority is protecting the safety of our residents.

"Given the terrible situation in Paris, I've directed that we put on hold our efforts to accept new refugees until the U.S. Department of Homeland Security completes a full review of security clearances and procedures," he added.

That he thought it was a good idea in the first place shows rather terrible judgment on his part, but he at least seems to be waking up to reality. Hillary still clearly has not.

Not to mention the plan to resettle them in Pontiac was just plain nuts.

Putin Plays Middle East Chess As Obama Struggles To Figure Out Checkers

Get a load of this headline in the Detroit Free Press: Obama offers to work with Putin, Iran on Syria; Putin says work with Assad

Obama declared:

"The United States is willing to work with any nation, including Russia and Iran," Obama said. "But we must agree that after so much carnage there cannot be a return to the previous status quo.”

Any solution must not include continued support for "a tyrant" like Syrian President Bashar Assad, who Obama said has killed his own people in a war that began with a violent crackdown on peaceful protests.

Putin's response was a firm "Nyet" to Obama's words-without-deeds insistence that Assad must go.

In sharp contrast, Russian President Vladimir Putin later called for a global response to fight Islamic extremism akin to a third World War and should be fought alongside Assad's government forces.

“We think it is an enormous mistake to refuse to work with the Syrian government and its armed forces,” Putin told the U.N. “No one but the Syrian forces and Kurdish militia is seriously fighting against Islamic state.”

That sound you hear is generations worth of US dominance and influence in the Middle East being continuously piddled away by the current administration whether negligently or deliberately to create a Multi-polar world with diminished US capabilities and power to influence the course of events.

US doctrine used to have a stated goal of keeping the Russians OUT of the Middle East. Now the Russians have got the initiative and the US seems to be the one being diminished in stature and being shut out of the region.

Understatement Of The Day

Obama: U.S. underestimated Islamic State

You don't say Mr. ISIL is "a JV team".

Not to worry though, he still doesn't have a coherent strategy, and he certainly can't say the V word (victory) over Islamic extremists.

Apparently this is the closest to a statement we might get as to the strategy that isn't a strategy:

"We just have to push them back, and shrink their space, and go after their command and control, and their capacity, and their weapons, and their fueling, and cut off their financing, and work to eliminate the flow of foreign fighters," Obama told CBS in the interview taped Friday, according to excerpts released by the network.

And then what exactly, declare they're back to being a JV team and leave and ignore them until they cause another problem?

This is of course, assuming such a laundry list of nebulous and ill-defined goals can really be done without "boots on the ground" (Yes I know we have some on the ground now, but acording to Obama they don't count and aren't really there, there and aren't boots-boots.

I just hoping there's already some AF CCTs and 5th SFG boots on the ground effectively directing air strikes, but that may be too much to ask for.

Updated to add: Instapundit makes a heckuva good point:

"Obama: Intel officials underestimated ISIS. When things go well, it’s always “I, me, mine” with this guy. When things go badly, it’s always “they” who screwed up."

Yep, that's about the size of it. The buck always stops elsewhere for Obama, except when it's time to take credit for something.

Och, Aqsa Mahmood Is Such A Fine Scottish Name

Hard on the heels of Scotland voting to remain in union with the United Kingdom, Tam links to a fascinating article of how a woman has left Scotland and off and joined ISIS and vow not to come back to the UK except to raise the banner of Islam.

"Gotta go 2 #beheading, C U l8r"

That whole multiculturalism thing vs a melting pot seems to be really turning out citizens with a solid British identity now doesn't it? To be fair, there's also women mentioned in the article allegedly from Chicago - agin the whole throwing away of a melting pot and unified American identity in return for non-judgmental multicultural relativism hasn't been great here either, but Europe seems to be bearing the brunt for now.

What The Heck Did I Just See?

Over at Of Arms and The Law, Mr. David Hardy has a link to what may be the latest head-scratcher video to come out of the Middle East:

L.A. Gangbangers head to Syria

Click the link to see a crazy mash-up of LA-style gun handling skills and gang-banger color commentary on display in Syria of all places.

Yes, really.

If anything, the typical gang-banger's gun-handling skills have gotten even worse as they've picked up Arab insurgent techniques, including the renowned Over-the-head In-sh'Allah shooting technique to incorporate into their mad skillz as they shoot in between swear words.

Only The Credulous Would Be Surprised By Either Story Coming Out of The Middle East Today

Two stories that show the real state of the Middle East, as many a clenched fist meet's Obama's appeasing open hand:

The first surprise: Chemical weapons inspectors in Syria miss deadline

I mean who could have seen that coming?

From the Detroit Free Press:

International inspectors overseeing the destruction of Syria's chemical weapons stockpile have missed an early deadline in a brutally tight schedule after security concerns prevented them from visiting two sites linked to Damascus' chemical program.

The chief of the global chemical weapons watchdog disclosed for the first time in a report obtained by the Associated Press that Syria has declared 41 facilities at 23 chemical sites where it stored approximately 1,300 tons of precursors and agents, and over 1,200 unfilled munitions to deliver them.

Ahmet Uzumcu said in his first report to the U.N. Security Council that inspectors from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons had corroborated the information provided by Syria at 37 of the 41 facilities.

But the OPCW said inspectors were only able to visit 21 of the 23 sites because of security risks - which means the tight timeline for visiting all declared sites by Oct. 27 was missed.

However all is not lost, as with Obama, the red lines aren't really red lines, and dead lines are certainly not dead lines:

While there are no consequences for missing the deadline.....

So, in return for letting Obama off his self-stated red line requirement for action, both the Syrians and the UN don't really have to act in a timely manner, or perhaps really have to act at all. Any bets they'll just run the clock, destroy a few chemical weapons for show and then let it fade from the headlines with the mandated job left undone?

Meanwhile, the second surprise headline of the day:

The Detroit Free Press: Iran sentences activist actress to prison

The latest headline out of Iran belies both Iran's declaration, the leftist mainstream media's declaration, and the US State Department's hope that Rouhani is a reformer. One should note that the State department seems to be on the verge of striking out in accurate reformer declarations, with one strike and on the verge of a second with Rouhani, so at least they haven't crowned him as a reformer quite yet.

An Iranian actress known for her political activism in support of the country's reformists has been sentenced to 18 months in prison after facing security charges, newspapers reported Tuesday.

So much for the nonsense that the appointment of Rouhani means Iran's leadership is in a "reform" mode, as in more democratic, western mode and less expansionist and religiously motivated terror-supporting state mode. While the public face of Iran may have changed,for show to entice the credulous leftists of the west, it's ruling council that holds the real power has not.

Putin to Obama: How's It Feel To Be My Bitch?

Remmeber all that smart diplomacy, that presentation of the "reset" button to Russia from Hillary Clinton? You know the one where the smart people instead of having a Russian native speaker provide the Russian word for reset, instead likely looked up the word in the dictionary and thus printed the red button with the word for "overcharge" as in charge too much or the overload of an electrical system? That kind of smart?

Well, here's the latest result of that "smart diplomacy":

Russia's Putin urges U.S. caution over Syria in blistering NY Times op-ed

"The potential strike by the United States against Syria, despite strong opposition from many countries and major political and religious leaders, including the pope, will result in more innocent victims and escalation, potentially spreading the conflict far beyond Syria's borders,'' Putin wrote.

"A strike would increase violence and unleash a new wave of terrorism. ... It could throw the entire system of international law and order out of balance.''

Putin even backed his Syrian client Assad by publicly contradicting Obama and claiming that it was the rebels and not the Syrain government that used gas:

"No one doubts that poison gas was used in Syria. But there is every reason to believe it was used not by the Syrian Army, but by opposition forces, to provoke intervention by their powerful foreign patrons, who would be siding with the fundamentalists,'' Putin wrote. "Reports that militants are preparing another attack — this time against Israel — cannot be ignored.''

Putin then deftly bitch-slapped Obama for his tough talk that wasn't backed up with more than hot air:

"We must stop using the language of force and return to the path of civilized diplomatic and political settlement,'' he wrote.

So not only does Putin pull Obama's chestnuts out of bis artificial red-line fire, he then puts him in his place and reveals him to be a weak and ineffective leader on the world stage. If you don;t think our allies and enemies haven't noticed, you'd be wrong.

It's going to be a very long three more years as Obama drags our standing in the world ever lower.

Flint Michigan Woman Goes Jihadi, Allegedly Gets Killed Fighting With Al Qaeda Affiliate In Syria

The Detroit News: Flint mother, 33, killed in Syria

The Detroit Free Press: Flint woman, 33, killed by Syrian government forces, family says.

A picture of a portion of Nicole Mansfield's Michigan driver's license, complete with her wearing a hijab leads the article in the Free Press.

One wonders if she was at least on the terrorist watch list or if this is a complete surprise to the authorities.

Apparently this conversion to jihadism started with a lonely single mother and a fraudulent immigration case, or more charitably with her being badly used by the Arab guy to get green card status and then being dumped once her use in getting that status was at an end:

Speelman and other family members said Mansfield met an immigrant from the Arab world several years ago and married him. She then converted to Islam and started wearing the hijab.

They divorced about three years ago after he was able to get a green card that allowed him to stay long-term in the U.S.

Even after being divorced she became very Islamic including attending mosques regularly, and apparently decided to go all jihadi.

Now she ends up dead in Syria allegedly fighting alongside some Brits for Al-Nusra, the Syrian chapter of Al Qaeda.

Sadly, she seems like a person who was open and vulnerable to being manipulated and then was indeed manipulated:

Nicole Mansfield grew up Baptist in Flint. Her dad was a production worker at General Motors. Her parents divorced and Mansfield dropped out of high school after she got pregnant

....

She was smart in school, the grandmother said, but at the same time, was too trusting.

“She had a heart of gold, but she was weak-minded,” Mansfield said. “I think she could have been brainwashed.”

Quite a sad end, and she deserved better than to die shot in the face in Syria.

One wonders how many more Michiganders are in the process of being brainwashed to join the global jihad, and whether they'll end up in Syria or in terrorist attacks here in the USA.

How About Those Obama Red Lines

President Obama's Red Line Calculus tough talk seems to have resulted in a rhetorical miscalculation.

 Officials in the Obama administration are trying to walk his strident declaration back, claiming his statement that Syrian use of chemical weapons would be a red line was a gaffe.  After all, this president has admitted he never took calculus.

The Toronto Star: Evidence Syrian rebels used chemical weapon sarin, says UN

Dang, he might have to be seen to do something now, or be shown as impotent on the world stage.

Apparently, strident demands with nothing to back them up don't work very well.  Unlike Teddy Roosevelt's foreign policy of "speak softly and carry a big stick", Obama goes with the "speak loudly and carry no stick" school of foreign policy.

As many have known for quite some time, Obama's Smart Power isn't.

Israel In Obama's New And Improved Middle East

Hamas continues to fire rockets that have hit Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

It looks like Israel may expand the defensive measures to include ground forces to force Hamas to quit firing rockets at Israel. Hopefully that will be a success and they won't stop until they achieve a decisive victory against Hamas, or at least as decisive as possible before the UN and the US imposes a ceasefire to keep the conflict simmering.

Egypt's new (Obama supported) Muslim brotherhood government is coming out in support of its little-brother Muslim brotherhood Hamas and against Israel. Completely unexpected, at least by the Obama Administration.

Iran continues to move forward and accelerate its efforts toward making a nuclear weapon.

Meanwhile, there's protests against the king in Jordan.

The killing in Syria continues but has managed to slip out of the news except for Hillary offering Syria, presumably the new and improved anti-Syrian government coalition, $30 million in humanitarian aid.

And in a further example of Obama's smart new cohesive Middle East policy, just in time for the weekend: Iraq just released Hezbollah member Ali Mussa Daqduq and returned him to Lebanon, against US requests. So you know, Hezbollah's Daqdug was behind an attack in Iraq that killed 5 US soldiers. The US had him in custody in Iraq but under the Obama pull-out turned him over to the Iraqis and now he's free to kill more Americans.

How about that, Obama is just doing a bang-up job on Middle East policy.

Misleading Headline Of The Day Israel/Syria Edition

The Detroit Free Press' headline: Israel fires at Syria for 2nd straight day

Sounds awfully aggressive on the part of the Israelis, now doesn't it?

You have to did into the article to get the reason why:

The Israeli military says it has fired into Syria for a second straight day in response to errant mortar fire that landed in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights.

In short, while the headline is technically accurate, it leaves out the context in a very familiar manner in regards to MSM reporting in the Middle East. At every opportunity they try to portray all acts with Israel as the aggressor.

Syria Regime Losing So Is It Seeking To Broaden The Conflict?

Syria's leaders seem to continue to overlook the axiom that "When You're In A Hole, Stop Digging".

After having its hands full with its own citizens, and really annoying and provoking Turkey, it looks like Syria is attempting to provoke Israel and widen the conflict even further.

Not sure if the Syrian regimes thinking is that a war with Israel will somehow unite the Syrians in their hatred of Jews and let the Assad regime come out ahead, but it would likely not end too well for them.

The Detroit Free Press: Syrian tanks enter demilitarized Israeli frontier

Three Syrian tanks entered the demilitarized zone in the Golan Heights on Saturday, Israel said, raising concerns violence from Syria's civil war could heat up a long-quiet frontier that has not seen such an incursion in nearly 40 years.

Israel complained to U.N. peacekeepers present in the area, a relatively low-key response that suggested it did not see the Syrian armor as an immediate threat. But the entry marks the most serious spillover of Syria's turmoil to date at the frontier, where stray ordnance has exploded on the Israeli side in the past.

Gee, what could possibly go wrong?

Syrian Conflict Introduces An Awesome-Cool New Shooting Position

Yep, the truce in Syria is unexpectedly yet officially over before it has even begun, with Syria launching heavy air strikes on its own population.

But in every human tragedy there is a bright side.

In this sad conflict, a new shooting position has been born, though I don't expect to see it at Camp Perry or indeed adopted by any Western military force anytime soon, if ever:

Yes, as can be seen even more clearly in the full picture, in all its glory, it's the all new Syrian Rebel Anti-Aircraft Shooting Position.

Now, Don't try that position at home folks, he's sure as heck not a professional, nor even an enlightened amateur.

The Great Benefits of this new position:

Stability: Uh, None.

Hit Probability: Uh, None.

Makes Noise: Oh, Yes.

Decent Ab Workout: Yes

Greatest Benefit of All: Nothing else says "I'm Insha'Allah Cool" like being curled up on your back with one leg jackknifed up in the air while you pop-off rounds into the sky at a fast-moving jet.

Add your own dubious benefits of this new position in the comments if you'd like.

Not Syrias About Truces

The Detroit Free Press: Syria truce collapse shows limits of diplomacy

The U.N. tried to broker a halt to fighting over the four-day Eid al-Adha Muslim feast that began on Friday, one of the holiest times of the Islamic calendar. But the truce was violated almost immediately after it was supposed to take effect, the same fate other cease-fires in Syria have met.

Interestingly some international idiots are trying to spin this as the United States fault:

The U.S., meanwhile, is averse to sending strategic weapons to help the rebels break the battlefield stalemate, fearing they will fall into the hands of militant Islamists, who are increasingly active in rebel ranks. [See Benghazi as Exhibit A as to why that fear is well founded]

"There has been a lack of desire to take the tough decisions," said [Salman] Shaikh [director of the Brookings Doha Center think tank].

"In Washington, they've only been focused on the narrow political goal of their own elections, trying to convince a war-wary public inside the U.S. that we are actually disengaging from the conflicts of the Middle East," he said.

But wait, I thought they were all for a nice multi-polar world with America not acting like a cowboy and all that?

At least they didn't pin the blame on Israel for it. The again ,its rather hard to make Israel look like the bad guy in the region when Syria can blithely kill 35,000 of its own citizens without causing much of an uproar among the likely suspects in the UN and elsewhere.

Another video showed destruction inside the Sheikh Moussa mosque in Harasta. Windows and doors were blown out, glass and debris scattered across the mosque's floor. The narrator broke down as he was heard saying: "Where are the Muslims? Our mosques are being bombed and no one cares."

When its Muslims doing it to other Muslims, the world yawns. It just doesn't fit the narrative of the Muslims as the poor leftist proletariat being oppressed by capitalist colonialist Israelis or Americans as the case may be.

You won't see much if any activity on campuses about Syria's genocidal campaign against its own people, nor a national conference for activism against Syria and other Arab dictators' homicidal tendencies against their own people.

Syrian Truce Breaks Down - Completely Unexpected

On October 18, Turkey calls for truce in Syria for Muslim holiday

Today:

Fighting mars Syria holiday truce; protests resume

The Syrian military has agreed to cease military operations for four days beginning Friday morning with the start of the four-day Eid al-Adha holiday, in line with a truce proposed by international envoy Lakhdar Brahimi and endorsed by the U.N. Security Council.

Fighting, car bomb mar Syria holiday truce

Is this a truce? Within hours, bullets again flying in Syria

Bashar Assad is well on his way to beating his dad hafez's kill record at Hama so why should he stop now?

Seriously, they've got no problem attacking other religions on their holy days, so did anyone really expect them to honor a truce occasioned by one of theirs?

Now Who Could Have Predicted This?

Syria ignores cease-fire plan

From The Detroit News:

Syrian troops defied a U.N.-brokered cease-fire plan on Tuesday, launching fresh attacks on rebellious areas

Could anyone other than UN diplomats really believe the Syrian government was going to honor that ceasefire plan?

Of course, when the UN has decided that this time, unlike Libya, their actions will be confined solely to diplomatic hand-wringing, such defiance is not unsurprising.

On Tuesday, Annan insisted his peace initiative remains "very much alive" — in part because there is no viable alternative.

The U.N. has ruled out any military intervention of the type that helped bring down Libya's Moammar Gadhafi, and several rounds of sanctions and other attempts to isolate President Bashar Assad have done little to stop the bloodshed.

Too bad for its citizens that Syria lacks any commercially viable oil resources.