Stat Inflation Ruined My Streak

 

Do you have any idea how much guff I've had to hear from people about how the Yankees technically aren't a good team because they only win series' against sub-.500 teams?? It's been everywhere. You know, despite the fact that multiple pieces are thriving, we have the best pitcher in the AL and we have peak Gerrit Cole back again, nah, doesn't mean anything if we can't take one more from the Jays. Y'know, if it hadn't rained last week we'd have finished the series with the Rays while we were getting hot and killed the narrative. But now it's gotta persist. Exhausting.

Because, honestly, this team doesn't suck. The bullpen can be infuriating, and David Bednar's blown some saves, but we're in most of these games. We're just unlucky right now given the opportunity. 

Ultimately, the core of this lineup is enough to keep me confident. Judge has been cold the last few weeks but he still has 17 homers and 34 RBIs, plus that insane walk-off last week. What's wild is that Cody Bellinger's outhitting him. Not that it's a huge shock, Bellinger's awesome and we know what he can do, but I didn't think he'd outdo Judge at the plate. Right now Bellinger's got a .271 average and 36 RBIs, plus 8 homers and 13 doubles. We knew last year how nice of a fit Belli was, and he's continuing his excellent progress by taking more initiative and being THE guy in more games. The Mark Teixeira comparisons are kinda there, the big contract to supplant the preexisting core, but Bellinger's looking to have a bit more career legs than Tex. And considering that one of these guys is looking forward to election day and the other is looking forward to 420...they couldn't be more different honestly.

This team has also seen the return of Anthony Volpe, hitting .257 with 7 RBIs in 11 games. He seems a bit more accurate than when we last left him, and though platooning him with Caballero is a safe bet, a long-awaited breakout would also be pretty helpful. Benchwise, this team has Amed Rosario and Paul Goldschmidt both being extremely useful, and now we have Max Schuemann being a surprising source of contact prowess. Shame Spencer Jones didn't work out this year though.

And at the same time, Cam Schlittler is still elite, Ryan Weathers and Will Warren can still stay in late and keep runs down, and Gerrit Cole has no earned runs and 12 Ks in his first 2 games back. It's safe to say this guy is back, and he's definitely his old self. I think it worked out that Cole and Rodon switched right in when Fried and Gil got hurt. We have Elmer Rodriguez and Carlos Lagrange down there in case anything else happens. Then again, Elmer is beginning to look a lot like July trade bait. I made the mistake of getting attached to Jhony Brito, I'm hesitant now.

I still think the Yanks are in good shape, and I especially think so after this Royals series. The A's are next, and we've routinely had some trouble with them, but hopefully we can continue our recent dominance and flip the narrative. 

Coming Tonight: I feared his career was over just 2 years ago. In reality, he was getting ready for one hell of a second act. 

Overdrive

 

Shohei Ohtani, for the first time since...I wanna say 2020 or so, is putting up positively human numbers at the plate. Human for Ohtani is still nebulous for most other ballplayers, but there is a palpable downward step from 2025, he's hitting .269 with 9 homers and 30 RBIs. Very normal, very unassuming, not a heck of a lot setting up apart from his contemporaries at the plate. Still a needed hitter with great power instincts, but it's not the pace that got him over 50 long balls the last few years.

Which means it's a good thing he's having his best season to date as a pitcher. 

The last time Ohtani felt this untouchable on the mound, it was 2022, and he went 15-9 with a 2.23 ERA and 219 Ks, enough to get him second in the MVP voting [but because he didn't hit 62 homers he couldn't lap the favorite]. Now he seems even better. In 9 starts he has a 5-2 record with a 0.82 ERA and 61 Ks. Pure dominance on so many levels, without overexerting himself. In fact, last night Ohtani went 6 innings without allowing a hit, only allowing a run on some sacrifice plays. That someone that dangerous as a hitter can also pitch scoreless frames and master the other side of the game, arguably more than the hitting right now, is insanely impressive.

On the heels of that is the fact that the Dodgers' bullpen has been exceptional this month, with little to no run bleeding from stalwarts like Tanner Scott, Alex Vesia, Kyle Hurt and Edgardo Henriquez. Despite the amount they paid for another lost Edwin Diaz season, they've built a working model that completely outdoes their 2025 model of hoping the extra starters can do long relief. It eviscerates one of the real marks against them from last year, and it gives them yet another leg up on the competition.

Shohei Ohtani is also just the best starter in this rotation right now, and that's taking into consideration Justin Wrobleski's swell, Yamamoto's usual brilliance and the surprise smash that is Eric Lauer. I am beginning to get worried that the potential for yet another Philadelphia Cy Young win will be foiled by a candidate who regularly wins things. I'm miffed about Zack Wheeler losing all those times, and I still think Cristopher Sanchez deserved another look last year. Now Sanchie's on an unprecedented run and I'm not even sure if that'll be enough to stop the writers from giving awards to Ohtani. Not that he doesn't deserve it, it's just...hasn't he gotten enough stuff by now?

The Dodgers still look like a league giant, have Andy Pages and Freddie Freeman surging, and have no trouble keeping the Padres down, in many cases getting other teams to do the dirty work for them. Even with the usual pitching injuries, and a few crucial lineup injuries [Betts and Teoscar], this team isn't slowing down, and still has lots of strength on display. It's a wee bit boring, but even I can appreciate it.

Coming Tomorrow- Ironically a former Dodgers lineup standout, now in a crucial role in opposition to LA's dynasty.

Patience Occasionally Pays Off

 

The Mariners promoted Colt Emerson a few weeks ago, and Emerson's been taking the majority of reps at third in the wake of yet another Brendan Donovan injury. You can tell the Mariners have faith in Emerson because they traded their other infield prospect, Ben Williamson, to make room for him, and so far that seems to be a good move on their part. Emerson's currently hitting .222 with 6 hits and 4 RBIs in 9 games. It's not immediately showing Emerson's high ceiling numbers, but if the Mariners' gameplan over the last few years has taught us anything, it's that they can afford to wait a little while.

Look at Cole Young, who was honestly inessential in his midyear callup last year. They brought him in to be a better choice at 2nd, he...sort of was, but didn't hit. Now, with another few months under his belt in the majors, he's figured a ton more out, with a more pronounced contact game, complete with 10 doubles and 23 RBIs, and some excellent defense at 2nd. He's been one of the most confident pieces of the lineup thus far, and in a season without Cal Raleigh's better numbers, that's worth a ton. Young wasn't an immediate smash in Seattle, but the Mariners didn't give up on him. Same with Emerson Hancock, who regularly brought up the rear of the five man rotation; Hancock's now a surer, more consistent starter, with a 2.78 ERA and 63 Ks in 11 games. He might honestly have the best line of any of the five right now, which is kinda insane. 

The waiting approach also applies to some of their acquisitions. J.P. Crawford, Dominic Canzone and Victor Robles hadn't completely hit their potential yet when they were traded, yet they've all found pivotal roles in this lineup. Crawford's still a welcome contact hitter, and though he's a little less accurate than usual he's still got 7 home runs. Canzone is the fun bench/DH bat whose power boosts have been welcome this year. Robles is still a great help defensively in the outfield, and he can hit .300 to boot. I'd even through Luke Raley in this category, because the Rays didn't get a ton of use out of him but in Seattle he's become one of the most reliable sources of power. Dude's got 11 home runs so far. 

The inverse of this is the guys the Mariners lose their patience with typically don't have a ton left afterwards. Kyle Lewis's peak WAS in Seattle, and after that season he barely touched the majors. Jarred Kelenic just got DFA'd by Chicago, proving the Mariners were right to give up on him. Easton McGee also hasn't really recovered from the injury he suffered right after his Mariners debut. They just seem to know when to pull the trigger and when to hold off.

Thanks to a strong series against the A's, the Mariners are momentarily back in first and hoping to build on the narrow lead. They've got Julio hitting, the rotation's looking surer than before and the wins are coming more frequently than they were in April. I think they can hold this for a little while, but the amount of time it took them to get here is slightly concerning. 

Coming Tonight: I was reminded the other day that this guy's been in the majors for nine years now. It's no less wild than it was in 2018. 

A Matter of Thrust

 

2026 has seen a lot of potential purveyors of 'new school' MLB thinking, guys like Blake Butera and Tony Vitello who have a younger, more advanced approach to building a winning team. And you hope that there can finally be a new breed of five-steps-ahead manager who can revolutionize how people think about running a team. I think about what Stephen Vogt's done in Cleveland, and how he's turned that team into a run production machine. Kevin Cash counts, all the analytics is driving the bus rather than contracts. Perhaps Darren McCaughan also fits. 

But one of the main reasons I want there to be a new breed of managers is because there's still a handful of them who are living too far in the past. I thought getting rid of Tony LaRussa was gonna help this. Now I'm fearing there's still some of this 'pro-decorum' energy about.

The Giants, for reference, have this outfield thrust they do when they win games. And it's Harrison Bader, Jung Hoo Lee and Drew Gilbert mostly, they do this hug-thrust thing when they win. Tony Vitello seems to be fine with it. Let 'em have fun. Well, Abner Uribe of the Brewers does this triple-crotch thing when he strikes out the side the other day, and it's full on reliever dominance stuff. And then after the game, Pat Murphy's going 'well, that's not how we do things here'. 

I can never tell where the line's gonna be with these guys. It's just a thrust, it's not like he assaulted someone, and even then he'd probably keep his job anyway. Pat Murphy's doing the whole 'this is the way things are done' schtick that I hated when LaRussa did it. And it's not like Murphy's comparable to LaRussa in that many other ways. Murph was taking pancakes out of his pocket last year. How is that 'the way things ought to be done'?? I'm pretty sure they're meant to go on a plate. I dunno what upscale restaurant Pat Murphy's going to, where the waiters put the pancakes directly in your pockets, but if that's The Way We Do Things Round Here than why not get silly and go 'your mum' when you strike a guy out, or whatever the hell Uribe's doing? Who's he hurting? 

So now you're gonna have Abner Uribe out there, stock serious at gunpoint, afraid to have fun. This is what got Yermin Mercedes run out of the leave, cause some old codger with a superiority complex told him The Way Things Are Meant to Be Done, regardless of any, ahem, difference in background or heritage. Carlos Estevez does the 'I am about to pulverize you like the man from the anime' stance every time he notches a save- nobody starts a shit-fit. He's not literally going 'I am going to pulverize you', just like Abner Uribe isn't actually saying he's gonna perform any lewd acts on anybody. The Way Things Ought to Be Done is just a gatekeeping tool men of a certain generation use to prevent anyone from reaching their level of success. Pat Murphy's committed to a lot of new school tactics, but this could be costly.

And it takes the sting out of a really excited, and varied, Brewers team, succeeding as very few [including me] knew they would. Losing Freddy Peralta hurt, but Miz and Harrison have been incredible, and have instilled a rotation stability that many thought was still a few years away. And yes, Logan Henderson's hurt again, but look at Coleman Crow filling in for him. They're being VERY careful with his service time, but he's succeeding at the MLB level. The team is hitting, and William Contreras is hitting .308 with 33 RBIs, which is a very strong stat for a catcher. Turang, Bauers, Chourio, Yelich and Mitchell are all following behind. And when not being yelled at by a manager, Abner Uribe's working out in the ninth, with 5 saves already. The interesting bit about this team is how many former starting options, like Aaron Ashby, D.L. Hall, Carlos Rodriguez and Shane Drohan, are working better as relief pieces than they would have been otherwise. A variation on the Dodgers' 'whatever you do don't hand the ball to a reliever' strategy from last fall [which has subsided to reveal a pretty fantastic bullpen actually].

The Brewers are a great team hitting their stride. The last thing they need is random decorum BS to bring them down, much like the 2021 White Sox were brought down by theirs. Hopefully good prevails here.

Coming Tomorrow- In 2025, the reaction to his presence in the Mariners' lineup was '...you're absolutely right, Leo Rivas IS the better option'. Now, he's finally delivering what he was supposed to. 

Mass Production

 

The modern Guardians teams, with their contact-first, contracts-later approach, always have this way of surprising me. I can never tell who's gonna be the guy that takes over and picks up the brunt of the work. If you'll remember, Jose Ramirez was like that, he went from a guy who was taking some reps at third to a powerful contact hitter to someone who will retire as a Cleveland Guardian and get a statue at the Jake. Brayan Rocchio was like that, he became an infield standout, then stunk for a year and is now a true standout again. This is just what they do.

On a team featuring Jose Ramirez, Rhys Hoskins, Steven Kwan, Chase DeLauter and Kyle Manzardo, the guy who leads the Guardians in home runs is Angel Martinez, a left-fielder in the midst of a breakout season, with 9 long balls and 27 RBIs. Right now Martinez has a higher OPS than Ramirez, and though his last week has been a bit slower, he's still an exciting, productive player. 

And the great thing about this team is that if someone like Martinez is slowing down, someone else can pick back up. Recently Daniel Schneemann has been getting hot, and he's been making some incredible leaping catches in the outfield. Kyle Manzardo's power numbers have slowly picking up, and he's been given more prime moments to shine. Rhys Hoskins has 5 homers, including one against his former team. And the biggest revelation of the season so far has been Travis Bazzana, the former #1 overall pick who's taken to the bigs with ease, hitting .292 with 3 homers, 10 RBIs and 7 stolen bases in his first 25 games. If this is the degree of excellence we can expect from the 23-year-old as he continues in the majors, the Guardians are gonna be fine.

That's very much the theme of this season, as even if they lose people, and even if they can't contend financially with the Tigers and Royals, they have the infrastructure to outlast everybody. Gavin Williams, Parker Messick, Joey Cantillo and Tanner Bibee are a very formidable core rotation foursome, with each bringing something very important to the table. Williams is having the best overall season, and he completely shut down the Phils the other night, but Messick might be the most dominant pitcher, with his expert pitch placement and low-speed craftsmanship. And Cade Smith happens to lead the league in saves with 18, despite a few of the issues that plagued him last year still persisting. 

This is an extremely good-looking Guardians team, with so many failsafes baked in and so many elements working. Undeniably they're one of the top two teams in the AL right now, and definitely one of the best teams in baseball, and they're doing this without breaking the bank or breaking the game. I'm not saying I need a Guardians-Dodgers World Series to make the point clear, but it'd be way more fun than a Rays-Dodgers Series.

Coming Tonight: If the Braves don't give up on this guy, they don't get Drake Baldwin. Or...maybe they just don't get his defensive catching numbers.

Juan Down...

 

Juan Soto really got sent out of Washington on a rail, got out of San Diego before they downturned, went to one World Series with the Yankees and decided that his best way of getting another championship ring would be...signing with the Mets. 

...who missed the playoffs last year and are now last in the NL East and divebombing further. That suite's gotta be nice though, right?

Here is the sad truth about this Mets team right now: Lindor, Robert, Alvarez and Polanco are hurt, as are Holmes and Senga. Bichette and Semien have been disappointments on many levels, Vientos is struggling, and we're already into 'operation bring up more rookies'. A.J. Ewing, Nick Morabito, Carson Benge and Jonah Tong are getting a ton of playing time. The Mets tried this strategy last year, only it was around August. That we're already trying 'just bring up the rookies' IN MAY...that's not a good sign.

All of this to say that the only thing on this team that's anywhere near as-advertised is Juan Soto. He's hitting .294 with 10 homers and 21 RBIs, he's missed some time due to little stuff but is still very much the beating heart of this lineup. I can already tell you that this is not what Soto wanted. He wanted to be part of a like-minded unit that could build each other up and work together to be the best. You know, like the 2019 Nationals. Trouble is, the 2019 Nationals weren't bought, they were built over time. Contracts did help, yes, like Scherzer and Strasburg, but the key figures were homegrown. Rendon, Soto, Turner, Zim, Robles, etc. This team, it's almost all contracts, and they're almost all struggling. The homegrown elements are trying to take the team back, but they're either not well-established yet or they're hurt. Francisco Alvarez has been in position to get going for YEARS, and he keeps getting hurt the moment it would be most appropriate. Luis Robert finally has an opportunity to do well for a competitor, and he immediately gets hurt. 

And so the 2026 Mets right now are leading with Soto, Bichette...Luis Torrens, M.J. Melendez, Brett Baty and A.J. Ewing. Not what was advertised.

Even the rotation feels a little like a cheap compromise. Nolan McLean's doing the best he can, but he's not Jacob deGrom; even with 75 Ks and a 1.092 WHIP, he's got a 4.40 ERA and 30 earned runs in 62 innings. Freddy Peralta's got a 3.52 ERA, much higher than anticipated, and is more human than ever. Peterson's back to how he was, with a 5 ERA and some bullpen-relegated stretches. Clay Holmes WAS doing a bang-up job, but then he got hurt and no one knows when he'll be back. It's just a weak effort from people who were in position to really deliver something.

And yes, it is only May, and great teams have come back from worse. But the Mets have often built something in June and lost it two months later. If they already look lost now, how likely is it for them to find themselves by September? Yes, 2024 happened, but there was arguably more setup to that run than what would be a spontaneous flip of the switch for this year. It's still technically possible, but they need to collectively decide to control the narrative and end this disaster. Because Juan Soto's gonna be a Met for the next decade or so, and if this is how things are starting out...he may want to try a different market.

Coming Tomorrow- The Guardians' wheel of contact player development has landed on this guy, and now he's become a fun breakout in a season chock full of them in Cleveland.

That's One Way to Debut

 

Imagine, for a second, that you have just been called up to the major leagues. The day you are up with the team, ready to debut out of the bullpen, your team is no-hitting the Texas Rangers. Keep in mind, the already came close to doing this earlier this month, Spencer Arrighetti had something going, but it didn't work out. Now a much less trustworthy pitcher's gone 6 strong, handed it to Steven Okert who went 1 strong...and now they are handing the ball to you. Your debut appearance will be attempting to complete a combined no-hitter in not only the away team's park...but the cross-state rival's park. So if you mess this up, it could haunt you for the rest of your life.

This was the conundrum put upon Alimber Santa last night in Arlington. 7 no-hit innings, now here you go. And then after 1 inning, the pitching coach tells you to stay out there. Josh Hader's still hurt, Bryan Abreu's not trustworthy, you're it. So now you have to face the top of the order in the bottom of the ninth and hope you get out of there with your dignity intact. 

Damn if Santa didn't handle it like a pro. 2 innings, 6 batters, all retired. And thus he gets to be the hero in his first MLB game ever. That's incredible. It's great for Tatsuya Imai, finally getting the hang of things over here, and for the oft-injured Okert, but Alimber Santa had to feel over the moon. This is the Astros in a nutshell, it's a well-oiled machine, and the people coming up, whoever they are, can probably inherit it. 

Obviously it's a little bit funny how Houston's still the no-no capital of baseball. They tried to stat twist, 'this is their first no-hitter since 2024'. Here's what you should have said. 'The Houston Astros have had a no-hitter in every season since 2022, except for 2025. They've had FIVE no-hitters in the past five seasons, one of them in the World Series. Hell, Christian Vasquez, who caught this one...he'd caught one BEFORE for the Astros! He caught the one in Game 4 of the World Series! So this isn't even new to him! 

Five no-hitters in 5 years- the Blue Jays haven't even thrown one since 1990! The Guardians haven't thrown one since 1981! Parker Messick got painstakingly close recently, and losing that one hurt. Don't give me that 'first since 2024' bullshit. 

It's very cool that this happened, and it's even cooler for Imai and Santa to be a part of this so early in their MLB careers. I'd love for some teams other than the Astros to figure out how to go all 9 without a hit. Cause without the Santa stat, it's hard to get excited about another Astros no-hitter.