Just Before Gleyber Day

 

There was a brief moment where it looked like the Tigers were about to come roaring back with a vengeance and stare down the rest of the AL Central, but right as they were about to reach .500, they went 4-14 to finish out August. And now they're so far out of the playoff race that Justin Verlander's swan song might just be an inning in September rather than an October sendoff. It got sad FAST in Detroit, and I think it was difficult for this team to do anything once Riley Greene got hurt. But he's back now...in time for the anticlimax I guess.

What I'm getting from this team is that all the people that are coming up now, like Max Clark, Ben Malgeri, Brett Callahan and John Peck, are put here to do the work that the actual depth guys [Matt Vierling, Kerry Carpenter, Wenceel Perez, Javier Baez, Parker Meadows, Jace Jung] REFUSED TO DO. In past years, the Tigers have had so many little guys who could jump in and shock you, or come in for a pinch hit and flip the game. None of them could do a damn thing this year, so the Tigers just brought up the next stage. Eduardo Valencia is now the backup catcher, he's a .312 hitter with a .636 SLG, 6 homers and 17 RBIs in 27 games, and even if Dillon Dingler is the guy right now, he's a very handy #2. Clark has more triples than homers right now but the future's still very bright. Malgeri's just a solid extra piece, he's an above average hitter with some real contact spark. Callahan might be something useful too. The hope is that when they make another run next year, and I think they well, just with Jackson Jobe and Troy Melton stepping up in the absence of Mize and Skubal, this bench depth and hitting armada will do everything this year's's could not. 

The other thing that sort of screwed the Tigers over this year was losing Gleyber Torres for a couple months. Torres never became the superstar that the Yankees thought he'd be, but he's still an incredibly useful infield bat with tons of perks. Last year he was an all-star, and deservingly so at that. This year he's only played 79 games, but at least he's hit .261 with 8 homers and 36 RBIs, and has been relatively productive since coming back. The word's out on whether or not Torres will be resigned for next year, though Javier Baez and John Peck seem to indicate that some infield flexibility could be instituted if he signs elsewhere [which...there's a decent chance that he will]. The team is trying to go younger all over, Torres is pushing thirty, it all fits. Meanwhile, Colt Keith, Kevin McGonigle, Max Clark, Brett Callahan and Hao-Yu Lee are all under the 25-year mark and can certainly make up the core for rest of the 2020s. 

At the very least, this team has a definite Rookie of the Year candidate in Kevin McGonigle, a possible MVP candidate in Dillon Dingler, 7 more saves to get Kenley Jansen to 500, and the potential for that storybook ending for JV. It wasn't a pretty year, but at the very least they might end with some dignity, which is more than I can say for the Royals.

Coming Tomorrow- The Rays gave him up when they could have paid him, so instead he became a fan-favorite outfield bat for a different low-market team. 

Mack Tonight

 

There is still this decent enough chance that the Marlins sneak into the playoffs this year. A lot of their contemporaries, such as the Pirates and Cardinals, have sunken pretty deeply below them, and they're currently 3.5 games back from the Padres-D-Backs scrum, which...all things considered, is not the worst deficit, especially for a team gaining ground. The D-Backs and Padres, as we know, are inconsistent, can drop the ball for a bit, and can allow for enough room for the Marlins to sneak in. This just takes the Marlins, equally inconsistent, to have a swell that outdoes them. And I guess we're about to see if that can happen.

I think a good way to sum up this Marlins team, just from where the production comes from, is even. This is a pretty concise group of people, with no huge superstars, no egos on the way to a bigger market, and no disconnect between factions. Otto Lopez is having an MVP caliber season as a contact superstar, but I think he knows he's not Babe Ruth. He's a very good player having a great year, and helping this team compete, but he's not a 'carry the team on his back' guy, like Griffin Conine can be in extras. I don't see Joe Mack as that type either, but he has been extremely good on a come-up, with 12 homers and 39 RBIs in 85 games. Mack came in as an alternative to Agustin Ramirez has backup catcher, then when Liam Hicks got traded he got the job fully, and has honestly earned it. He's very good behind the plate, hits for power and is young enough to grow into a cool piece for these teams. Considering that the Marlins' old catching battery is now the Rays' current catching battery, it's nice to see a young catcher who's probably sticking around. 

I did not expect Heriberto Hernandez to lead this team in homers this year, nor did I expect Esteury Ruiz to lead this team in steals. But here we are, and it's honestly really cool. Very speedy team honestly, four guys with 20 or more steals. And then you've got Stowers, Caissie, Conine and Hernandez covering the power faction of the team, though 6 different guys have over 50 RBIs, including Javier Sanoja. I just really enjoy how this team has come together as a hitting unit, and it makes me kind of optimistic, even if nothing happens this year.

I think the pitching without Max Meyer has been somewhat worrying, but the old Sandy Alcantara is back, going deep into games, making all his starts and doing exactly what he's supposed to. Alcantara's 13-8 with a 3.50 ERA, and he's looked really good recently. Eury Perez doesn't look bad either, with 142 Ks and a 3.44 ERA in 24 starts. Janson Junk and Ryan Gusto have come around and are pretty steady starting options. They've been letting Tyler Phillips start more games, and he's not too bad, with only a handful of outings where he actually got chased. The bullpen's seen better days though [why did they trade Lake Bachar??] but there's a lot of good young guys getting better. 

I think logically this Marlins team is maybe a year away, but they could also get hot enough to chase the competition and sneak into the race. Stranger things have happened, and with this Marlins team having as many facets and strengths as they do, you can't exactly count them out. And so I won't.

Coming Tonight: Despite no longer being on the Yankees, this guy is still an excellent hitting infield option doing his best in a less-competitive market.

Flexing From Third

 

Right now, despite a slight difference in overall pictures, there's a team in each league that is currently playing the same role. They are currently in third place in the division, overcame a really rough run, have a 1% shot of a division win thanks to either a comfy favorite or two comfy favorites within a handful of games of each other. They both have some bright young pitching, a few very important pieces joining the team in September, and a halfway decent shot at competition. Right now one team, the Red Sox, has a five game lead over any other wild card competitors [from the second spot], and the other team, the Diamondbacks, has a decent hold on the third spot but are quarreling with the Padres for it. 

The Sox are 74-63, the D-Backs are 73-65. Both teams want it. My prediction is that only one of them will make it, and the other one probably won't despite having a better record than like 2/3rds of the AL. 

The Red Sox, even after getting lambasted by the Yankees this past weekend, look as ready as they did last year, and arguably the lineup's even beefier now. Willson Contreras is having a terrific season as a power corner, with 26 homers and 79 RBIs. Ceddanne Rafaela, aside from his terrific center field defense, is still a ridiculous clutch hitter, leads the league in doubles with 32 and has 67 RBIs. Wilyer Abreu has 23 homers and 70 RBIs. Roman Anthony and Trevor Story just got back and are making the power numbers look even better. I am a little concerned that Adley Rutschman still isn't hitting very well, and has yet to really embrace playing for a competitor again, but on paper this is a team that can go deep.

The downside is that the rotation, while still sporting Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez, is still a little untested. Jake Bennett and Payton Tolle have impressed in full seasons, but neither have displayed the elite dominance that the team will need to take down a Yankee team or a Guardians team. Bennett is 9-6 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.035 WHIP, but he's had some rough starts that are beginning to pile up. Same with Payton Tolle, who's got a 3.09 ERA and 141 Ks. The only guy on this team with over 10 wins is Sonny Gray, meaning the depth guys don't get the team behind them as much as they should. And when some starts have to be handed to Patrick Sandoval and his 4.20 ERA and others need to be an opener game eventually handed to Brayan Bello, who's NOT getting it done at all this year, that reassurance would be nice. This team needs to be durable in a postseason environment, and when Suarez and Sandoval can struggle against New York even in August, it's a bit concerning.

The reason I think they're a better bet than Arizona is that the Sox have so much going on, so much rejoining the team and so much that we know works in October. The D-Backs haven't been since 2023, have a lot of shaky or injured heroes from that team, have minor pieces coming back but have heard mum on the status of Corbin Burnes, and have to outdo the Padres, who arguably have more going on.

The D-Backs went 15-13 this past month, meaning they did actually get a nice amount done but only slightly broke even. Losing Ketel Marte did not help, especially considering how he went out. That's definitely not an ego boost. This team also just lost Mike Soroka again, which isn't ideal especially if Gallen's still out. 

The good news is the core is still surging. Corbin Carroll doesn't have enough going on offensively to truly vie for an MVP this year, but he's got 16 triples, 19 homers, 20 steals and some impressive plays in right, so he's still the talk of the town. Arenado's come back season has crossed the 20 homer mark. Perdomo and Moreno have been very steady and very helpful. Ryan Waldschmidt has filled in pretty well in center, he's hitting .267 with decent contact work and great defense. Jordan Lawlar's finally back, and somehow is getting the edge over Lars Nootbaar. It's not an overly wild offensive team, but they do good, steady work and sneak their way out of tough situations.

Without Gallen, and without Merrill Kelly's better numbers, the rotation has needed to evolve naturally. Eduardo Rodriguez's better numbers has returned, and he's at ace status again, with a 14-4 record and a 2.50 ERA. Somehow Brandon Pfaadt came back after a rough first two months and became must-see TV again, being the starter for 7 wins after coming back [with a 6-0 personal record in that time]. He's been getting rocked a little recently, but it's still a decent year for Pfaadt, with a 3.50 ERA in 24 games. People thought he'd be the future of the franchise when he came up as a postseason hero, and while that hasn't exactly happened he's still come through when the team has needed him. 

Also, this team has a very underrated bullpen. Taylor Clarke, Jonathan Loaisiga, Juan Morillo, Brandyn Garcia, Gerardo Carillo and now Justin Martinez have all been excellent, especially in the last couple months. This team has even gotten Dennis Santana to stop sucking. That is an ACCOMPLISHMENT. 

I do ultimately think the Sox have a better road to October than the D-Backs, but the D-Backs are the kind of team who could sneak in and catch fire, much like they did in 2023. I'm not sure how likely it is given the Padres' strengths, and given the fact that the Marlins are still somewhat in the race, but I could see it somehow happening even with everything I know to be true.

Coming Tomorrow- Last year the Marlins had a starting catcher. Then they traded him to Tampa in favor of a younger guy. He started this year. Then they traded HIM to Tampa for a younger guy. This is that younger guy, and he's playing well enough to not exactly start scouting for beachfront property in Tampa about now.

Shallow Cal

 

The good news is that last week, Cal Raleigh returned to form with a 3-homer day against the Philadelphia Phillies, bringing him to 18 homers and 52 RBIs in a shortened, maligned season. The bad news is everything else.

People have made the claim that the lack of Cal Raleigh's better numbers have led to the decline of the Mariners this year, and I'm not at liberty to disagree. The pitching has been very good, Arozarena's having a terrific year, there's still stars in this lineup, but without Raleigh, the weight is gone. Julio tried carrying this team for a bit, Josh Naylor did before he started hitting, Cole Young did, but it all felt imbalanced. By the time Cal got back and started hitting it was too late. The Mariners are hitting .228 as a unit, and the pitching now has a 4.13 ERA cumulatively because even Kirby and Woo are struggling at this point, without even mentioning the bullpen. The playoffs are more and more of a fantasy unless the AL West picture changes drastically, as they are still only 4 games back from the division. Right now though, the losses really are piling up, and there have been some huge losses in the past week. Yesterday was Kade Anderson's second start, and while I'm writing this before the game's actually happened, I sincerely hope the Mariners didn't ruin it for him. But there's always this idea that they could. 

The Raleigh thing may even stem back to the World Baseball Classic, where he was really weird about turning down a handshake to Randy Arozarena despite the fact that they're literally teammates. Like, you don't need to keep kayfabe, this isn't even Olympics level stuff, it's a friendly tourney for bragging rights. The idea is that this ruined his clubhouse goodwill, despite what interviews have said, and him getting off to a horrible start this year didn't exactly help that. He's now hitting .165, which is *better*, but after last season, it's not exactly a strong mark, especially going forward trying to make the Mariners a league superpower. And so the idea of 'was this a fluke' is now circling. The Mariners have had a lot of sure things fade upon entry, including Kyle Lewis, Jarred Kelenic, Evan White and Ben Williamson. The worry is that Cal Raleigh, despite how amazing he's been the last few years, might be headed to that category. I personally do not think he is, I think this is just a rough season, but in baseball things really can turn that quickly.

And so there's already the thought of 'if Cal Raleigh can't carry this team, who can?' Cole Young is already a really sharp young star, he's a contact hitter with excellent infield defense, I think he's a sure bet for a while. Kade Anderson seems to be the real deal, and was as MLB-ready as everyone was thinking. The idea is that Cole Emerson is gonna come into his own and relieve J.P. Crawford of his duties, which might be a little overdue honestly. Now there's the idea of Brock Rodden as a corner infield guy, and if he starts hitting that'll be even better. Naylor's here for a while, as are Julio and Cal. I'm not thinking Randy Arozarena is gonna stick around given the option to stay in free agency [Scott Boras is his agent after all], but hopefully there's enough that can be done to patch this up. 

I think 2026 was very much a harsh lesson for the Mariners, one that still isn't completely unsalvageable but is in danger of being so. If they don't pick back up next season and reverse the narrative, the 2025 season may be a grave 'what could have been' in a history of rotten luck.

Coming Tonight: With how his season started, I did not expect this guy to be such an important piece of this Diamondbacks team hitting the stretch.

Always Be Closing: That Misleading Statistic..

 

I think that when the 'save' was invented, it was a much simpler MLB climate. Relievers could still go 3 innings because they were essentially trained on the same stuff as starters. Nobody was training to just go 3 batters a day yet, and thus careers were longer. Saves were just an arbitrary 'you made sure the game wasn't a loss' thing, and then around the advent of the closing pitcher it became 'okay, you came in and polished it off on purpose', and then the save had some weight. But eventually, as the closer becomes the valued spot it became in the 90s and 00s, there eventually grows a disconnect between saves and pitching quality. You get closers after a while who save a ton of games, your Alfonsecas and Wickmans and Loopers, and do it without being terribly hard to hit. There's a lot of 30, 35 save seasons that have a 4 ERA attached to it. And eventually you segue to this current period, where the closer is less dedicated, it's more RP1, and there are guys closing games that are doing it because they're the best available option. 

And so that's how we've gotten to this current point, where Riley O'Brien of the Cardinals has made an all-star team, and leads the NL in saves with 34, without being, in my opinion, terribly great at actually closing games.

O'Brien was a Rays draftee who bounced around a ton of places before the Cardinals took him on and made him a reclamation project. Last year he was excellent in 42 appearances, with a 2.06 ERA and a 1.5 WAR. In Ryan Helsley's absence, the Cards primed JoJo Romero and O'Brien for a closing spot, and both did relatively well given the opportunity. In camp, the two fought for the closing spot, O'Brien won, and he got to close games for them all year. However, his six losses and five blown saves speak to the reality that for every effective closing appearance there's a few more really shaky ones. Against the Phillies, going into the ninth with a 4-0 lead, O'Brien gave up all 6 runs and effectively sunk the game singlehandedly. Then three days later he got up against Baltimore and gave up the ninth inning run that lost that one. He's one of those guys that can get a save while still letting a run slip by, like he did against the Cubs in May, or making it a little scarier than it should be [he gives up a lot of walks]. And thus, even with those 34 saves, O'Brien may not be an optimal reliever. The statistic tells you he's good at finishing games with wins, it doesn't tell you how dominant he was in those appearances, and compared to a Cade Smith or a Josh Hader, he's not dominant at all. 

O'Brien's rise tells you a couple things. The Cardinals require a lot of save situations, because their starting pitching isn't lights-out and there aren't a ton of blowouts, but they're also around .500 because there's 6 or 7 games that would have been wins had it not been for O'Brien. The Cardinals are very okay this year, and so is Riley O'Brien. It's really as simple as that.

You're seeing some signs things may get better, like Quinn Matthews beginning to field some starts, and the advent of Cade Winquest to potentially help the bullpen. Blaze Jordan is beginning to hit, and for his troubles has immediately gotten hurt. Joshua Baez had that amazing 3-homer game, and...frustratingly hasn't done a heck of a lot since. Next season will definitely have J.J. Wetherholt and Jordan Walker plugged in centrally and trying to move forward, and that's a very good thing. Until then there's just gonna be a lot of awkward false starts and almosts, and 2026 is most certainly one of those, as the NL Wild Card race has pretty much broken away from the Cards at this rate. 

I guess the lesson here is that, while saves aren't as important as they used to be, relief pitching can still be the difference-maker. 

Coming Tomorrow- Oh, you know, a guy who nearly won an MVP last year and frustratingly refused to follow it up?

Never Really Ober

 

Okay. So now that the Twins are 4 games back from the nearest wild card spot, and have been lapped by both the Orioles and Blue Jays...that means they can power down a little, right? It's wild to me that a team that's 6 games under .500 is still technically a playoff-chasing team. Then again a team that's at .500 has hold of the AL West right now, so it's all kind of a mess anyway. 

The single wildest part about the Twins' case to compete lasting this long is that their trade deadline acquisitions might be the most successful of anybody's. Dean Kremer's been excellent in four Minnesota starts, with a 3.18 ERA, 20 Ks and a 0.7 WAR. A.J. Minter has a 0.84 ERA in 10.2 innings. Jeff Hoffman has a 4.50 ERA, which compared to his Jays numbers is Bob Gibson stuff. They also brought up Kaelen Culpepper since the deadline, and in 16 games he's hitting .333 with 3 homers and 6 RBIs, already looking like a favorite to start at shortstop next Opening Day. But no matter you drape over this team, fundamentally they still have a long way to go, and only have so many good pieces. The hitters have a combined 13.5 WAR, and that's mainly because the starting lineup is a bunch of 1, 1 and a half WAR guys all doing perfectly alright. With the exception of Byron Buxton, this is a team of pedestrian players doing their best. Brooks Lee, Luke Keaschall, Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach and Kody Clemens are doing everything they can, even if on any other team a lot of them would be a bench bat. Keaschall I do see a future with, but these days he's a pretty good bat with some defensive struggles. 

You also think about the fact that beyond Taj Bradley, Joe Ryan and Dean Kremer there's still rotation unrest. Zebby Matthews and Connor Prielipp are two fundamentally strong pitchers that aren't having great seasons. Bailey Ober is perfectly fine right now, he's 7-4 with a 4.50 ERA. We've seen him do better. In a season where the Twins had a lick of a playoff chance, this was not the right #3 man performance. Maybe if Mick Abel, Pablo Lopez and Mike Paredes had stayed healthy we wouldn't be here, but that's not the hand the Twins were dealt. You can't really blame the ownership for screwing the pooch here, they actually tried, they didn't completely burn the team down in the offseason, an effort was made. It just didn't really work out, regardless of how close it got.

Even now you can still see some effort being put in, a decent Trevor Larnach season with 11 homers and 43 RBIs, Kody Clemens leading the AL in triples because Corbin Carroll isn't here, and Byron Buxton trying to make the most of yet-another injury-shortened year. There's even the entry of a new rookie star, outfield bat Walker Jenkins, a man born in 2005, meaning there's now people ten years younger than me in the major leagues, which is quite sobering. Jenkins was hitting .308 in St. Paul, got to emerge from the corn in Iowa a couple days before the other Twins did, and now gets to [supposedly] finish the season in the majors. Hopefully he's the next step to a year that doesn't end as strangely as this one for the Twins.

Coming Tonight: An all-star closer who's just now seeing the other shoe beginning to drop.

Shuffling the Bank

 

So since the trade deadline, the usually-strong Phillies fielding strategy has been flipped a bit. Because Luis Arraez is now the everyday second baseman, Bryson Stott has moved to third, Alec Bohm has moved to first, Bryce Harper has moved to right, and Trea Turner...is still playing short despite some really rough play at short. But this seems to have solved enough problems otherwise. The idea of Stott losing playing time to a shift also lit a spark in him, as suddenly he's become one of the best hitters in town, with a .263 average, 59 RBIs and 23 steals. I think earlier in the season Stott was an average piece at best, but suddenly he's got a nice season going on. I'm not exactly sure where Brandon Marsh's bat has gone off to, but we'll take Stott's.

The thing about the Phillies right now is that there's a lot of gambits, but they all seem to be working. Aaron Nola and Andrew Painter both had excellent starts their last time through the rotation. Bryan de la Cruz has been an unexpected gem of a pickup, hitting .350 with 11 RBIs in 20 games. Derek Hill might still be one of the best clutch guys in the league, with 17 RBIs in 46 games. Alec Bohm still has 14 homers and 76 RBIs, and has made up for defensive inefficiency with some cool power displays. And now suddenly J.T. Realmuto is hitting, he's got 9 homers and 44 RBIs in 99 games, the old JT seems to have returned. All this and Kyle Schwarber hitting 40 home runs has kept the Phils alive in the wild card race. 

I think the thing that's getting me grumbling right now is the realization that the MLB keeps actively avoiding handing a Cy Young award to a Phillies pitcher. Zack Wheeler's been up for it like three times, can't get one. Cristopher Sanchez was up for it last year, nah, Skenes's year. Sanchez again has been the frontrunner all year, 'ah actually Jacob Misiorowski's stuff is more interesting'. I mean...yeah, but Sanchez has a 7 ERA, 16 wins, he'll get 200 Ks soon enough. Is that not enough for people anymore? If Sanchez misses half the season next year [heh], you'll all be going 'oh if only we gave him one while we had the chance. Wheeler, despite missing 5 starts, is also having a good season, but since he got lit up by the Mariners his ERA's 3.40. How depressing if you're a sportswriter. Looking at a guy going 'oh, a 3.40 ERA in August, better fire up the crematorium'. I'm fairly convinced, and I mean this jokingly, that most sportswriters don't like it when Philly has nice things. Then again, most Philly FANS don't like this either. I have a friend from middle school who I only hear Facebook posts from when the Phils are losing. When they're winning? Not a peep. What's the point of that? Probably more boring. 

I do think the Phillies are on the right track at this rate, after a strong August. They've got a good hand on a wild card spot, and they're 5 games out from the division, which is slightly doable considering that, and it's wild that I'm saying this...the Phillies might have more pitching depth than the Braves. I know, it's insane to say out loud. I like this team's chances, and I think getting a low seed is a nice way of gaining momentum, as they did before. It's just gonna take more stretches like this one and less series' like the Mariners one.

Coming Tomorrow- A veteran starter for a team that technically still has a playoff shot but...I mean, come on.