18 July 2013

Birthday
Syd Mead b. 1933

Most other great science fiction illustrators are known best for the work they did in the science fiction magazines. While Mead did do some book illustrations, some of his best work is in catalogs from companies like U.S. Steel and Sony, depicting a smooth and shiny future. Regular readers may recall the illustration I nicked from the 1988 Los Angeles Times Magazine I recapped titled L.A. 2013.

In the late 1970s, he started doing posters and design work in movies like the first Star Trek, Blade Runner and Tron. More recent films with his signature look include Johnny Mnemonic and Mission: Impossible III.

Many happy returns to a man who did as much as anyone to give the future a look of hope and glamor.


Movies released
The Dark Knight released, 2008
Jurassic Park III released , 2001  
 

Prediction: In 2010, the nursing facilities in Disneyville in Florida will use nurses that are holograms.

Predictor: Arthur C. Clarke in Odyssey Two, published 1982

Reality: In Clarke's story, the holograms are fairly realistic and one cantankerous old female patient is proud she can tell the difference and plays tricks on the mechanical helpmates. Holographic technology looked like it was going to get cool back about thirty to forty years ago, but the present day uses are on a much more modest scale.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

On the subject of future health care, we have a prediction about robotic health care providers from Jaron Lanier's new book Who Owns the Future?
 

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!

16 January 2013

In the year 2000!
 
Prediction: Gymnastics will begin in the nursery, where toys and games will be designed to strengthen the muscles. Exercise will be compulsory in the schools. Every school, college and community will have a complete gymnasium. All cities will have public gymnasiums. A man or woman unable to walk ten miles at a stretch will be regarded as a weakling.

Predictor: John Elfreth Watkins in The Ladies' Home Journal, published 1900

Reality: Baby toys include pull-up bars. Schools always have gyms, though not all cities have public gyms, there are lots of public parks for basketball, tennis, handball, softball, baseball and soccer. I don't know if the ten mile walk is the standard measure of "non weakling-hood". Depending on whether you walk quickly or slowly, that's at least two and a half hours and maybe more like four.  It's more a question of "Who has the time?" than it is "Who has the strength?"

Watkins suffered an accident in his early twenties, leaving him only fit for office work and died in his early fifties in 1903. There were many advocates of healthy lifestyles at the turn of the century, John Harvey Kellogg and Theodore Roosevelt to name just two, but the fact that the average life expectancy has effectively doubled in 100 years can be attributed more to miracles of modern medicine, notably the eradication of tuberculosis and polio and the taming of influenza as a mass killer, than it can to push-ups and jumping jacks.

Looking one day... INTO THE FUTURE!  Our pal Arthur C. Clarke returns with two predictions from his 1968 work 2001: A Space Odyssey that are right on the money.

Join me then... IN THE FUTURE!

9 January 2013

In the year 2000!

The American will be taller by from one to two inches. His increase of stature will result from better health, due to vast reforms in medicine, sanitation, food and athletics. He will live fifty years instead of thirty-five as at present – for he will reside in the suburbs. The city house will practically be no more. Building in blocks will be illegal. The trip from suburban home to office will require a few minutes only. A penny will pay the fare.


Predictor: John Elfreth Watkins in 1900, published in The Ladies' Home Journal

Accuracy: Watkins misses in a lot of interesting ways with this set.

The best numbers I can get are that American males are about three and a half inches taller, up from 5'6" in 1900 to 5'9½" in 2000.

The average life expectancy is just barely under 80 instead Watkins' guess of 50. While much lower infant mortality is part of that improvement, the huge change would be the nearly complete eradication of the #1 killer in 1900, tuberculosis, and the taming of influenza with vaccines. (Got your flu shot yet?)

People still have houses in cities, apartments are still built in blocks. When the trains are on time or traffic on the freeway isn't awful, some suburbs are just a few minutes away from the nearest city, but even accounting for inflation, the fare is a lot more than a penny.

One last note. Watkins was born in 1852 and died in 1903 at the age of 51, not that far from the average life expectancy he thought would be the case in the year 2000. I haven't been able to find the cause of death, but I will keep researching.

Looking one day... INTO THE FUTURE! Thursday means Arthur C. Clarke gets another turn, making the case that it's time monkeys, apes and whales started pulling their own weight and getting jobs.

Join me then... IN THE FUTURE!